India Nuclear News and Discussion 4 July 2011

[Sanku]

safeguards are only placed for processing and fabricating fuel...the safeguards are in place because the fuel is processed and as per the third paragraph of the iaea i have posted above they have to be safeguarded...

Please, oh please IAEA has safeguards when ore is enriched to fuel and you want to say they dont have safeguard when ore is enriched to weapon grade Uranium?

Read what you posted

When any material containing uranium or thorium which has
not reached the stage of the nuclear fuel cycle described
in paragraph (c) is directly or indirectly exported to a nonnuclear-weapon State

India is NOT a nonnuclear-weapon state under NPT. What you posted DOES NOT APPLY to India. India has a special Trisanku status in Iaea. Neither here nor there. Lose-lose really

In fact the same document posted has the following summary

Safeguards obligations related to mining and
ore processing are limited but the information
to be provided is important
Efficient and effective control of mining and ore
processing activities is
• in the interest of the State
• essential for the non-proliferation regime
Provision of the required information is
indispensable for an effective and efficient
Agency safeguards

Read this

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf12.html

In December 2006 the US Congress passed legislation to enable moves towards nuclear trade with India. Then in July 2007 a nuclear cooperation agreement with India was finalized, opening the way for India's participation in international commerce in nuclear fuel and equipment and requiring India to put most of the country's nuclear power reactors under IAEA safeguards and close down the Cirus research reactor by 2010. It would allow India to reprocess US-origin and other foreign-sourced nuclear fuel at a new national plant under IAEA safeguards. This would be used fuel arising from those 14 reactors designated as unambiguously civilian and under full IAEA safeguards.

The IAEA greeted the deal as being "a creative break with the past" - where India was excluded from the NPT. After much delay in India's parliament, it then set up a new and comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA, plus an Additional Protocol. The IAEA board approved this in July 2008, after the agreement had threatened to bring down the Indian government. The agreement is similar to those between IAEA and non nuclear weapons states, notably Infcirc-66, the IAEA's information circular that lays out procedures for applying facility-specific safeguards, hence much more restrictive than many in India's parliament wanted.

The next step in bringing India into the fold was the consensus resolution of the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in September 2008 to exempt India from its rule of prohibiting trade with non members of the NPT. A bilateral trade agreement then went to US Congress for final approval. Similar agreements followed with Russia and France. The ultimate objective is to put India on the same footing as China in respect to responsibilities and trade opportunities, though it has had to accept much tighter international controls than other nuclear-armed countries.

The introduction to India's safeguards agreement with IAEA says that India's access to assured supplies of fresh fuel is an "essential basis" for New Delhi's acceptance of IAEA safeguards on some of its reactors and that India has a right to take "corrective measures to ensure uninterrupted operation of its civilian nuclear reactors in the event of disruption of foreign fuel supplies." But the introduction also says that India will "provide assurance against withdrawal of safeguarded nuclear material from civilian use at any time." In the course of NSG deliberations India also gave assurances regarding weapons testing.

None of the material, NONE, supplied to a safeguarded facility can be withdrawn & any and all material is under safeguards, in fact unofficially Man mohan made the DAE forsake testing as well (refer above)

[Gerard]

Campaign safeguards are in place for the duration of the campaign. The IAEA inspectors leave afterwards.

India can remove material from safeguards if it places an equivalent amount under safeguards

http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Docume ... irc754.pdf

[gakakkad]

>>Please, oh please IAEA has safeguards when ore is enriched to fuel and you want to say they dont have safeguard when ore is enriched to weapon grade Uranium?

if the ore was enriched in a unguarded military facility ,than we don't have to place it in safeguards as impled by the name..

most important thing is that we can have as many indigenous unguarded facilities as we want to..

[Amber G.]

Sorry if already posted. Compared to venom emitted by some deshbhakts in this dhaga, against India, its scientists, and MMS (GOI's) evilness, this expert's opinion may be mild to some..

Not unlike Busby who is expert on NPP's, PTI’s Dr Shireen Mazari, "an expert on security affairs" writes in the news..,
Contrary to US claim India’s ‘nonproliferation record’ is highly suspect

[Sanku]

Campaign safeguards are in place for the duration of the campaign. The IAEA inspectors leave afterwards.

India can remove material from safeguards if it places an equivalent amount under safeguards

http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Docume ... irc754.pdf

Indeed, and the ToI article I posted, clearly mentioned that parts of NFC were under campaign safeguard before, but like other nuclear reactors going under permanent safeguards, so would parts of NFC be listed under "separation list"

"One part of the NFC is already listed in the Separation Plan which was made public in March 2006," Kakodkar said.

Some part of NFC has been under 'Campaign mode' of safeguards for fabrication of imported fuel from different countries for the US-supplied Tarapur atomic power stations units one and two, he added.

Have the parts of NFC which was listed under the separation plant fully under safeguards now?

[Sanku]

>>Please, oh please IAEA has safeguards when ore is enriched to fuel and you want to say they dont have safeguard when ore is enriched to weapon grade Uranium?

if the ore was enriched in a unguarded military facility ,than we don't have to place it in safeguards as impled by the name..

most important thing is that we can have as many indigenous unguarded facilities as we want to..

That is just not correct, in the first place imported ore under the civilian program can not be sent to a mil facility. AT ALL.

And there is no way for India to import ore directly for Mil facility, or without specifying which facility it is going to.

As I have requested before, please look up India specific safeguards

http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Docume ... irc754.pdf

A. ITEMS SUBJECT TO THIS AGREEMENT
11. The items subject to this Agreement shall be:
(a) Any facility listed in the Annex to this Agreement, as notified by India pursuant to
paragraph 14(a) of this Agreement;
(b) Any nuclear material, non-nuclear material, equipment and components supplied to India
which are required to be safeguarded pursuant to a bilateral or multilateral arrangement to
which India is a party;
(c) Any nuclear material, including subsequent generations of special fissionable material,
produced, processed or used in or by the use of a facility listed in the Annex or in or by the use
of any nuclear material, non-nuclear material, equipment and components referred to in
paragraph 11(b);
(d) Any nuclear material substituted in accordance with paragraph 27 or 30(d) of this Agreement
for nuclear material referred to in paragraph 11(b) or 11(c) of this Agreement;
(e) Any heavy water substituted in accordance with paragraph 32 of this Agreement for heavy
water subject to this Agreement;
(f) Any facility other than a facility identified in paragraph 11(a) above, or any other location in
India, while producing, processing, using, fabricating or storing any nuclear material,
non-nuclear material, equipment or components referred to in paragraph 11(b), (c), (d) or (e)
of this Agreement, as notified by India pursuant to paragraph 14(b) of this Agreement.

[Gerard]

imported ore under the civilian program can not be sent to a mil facility.

Why would India import ore under the civilian programme and send it to a military facility?

Prior to the nuclear deal, which countries sold India Uranium ore for use in the nuclear weapons programme?

According to critics of the nuclear deal, there would be IAEA inspectors all over India by now. India would be unable to build nuclear weapons. India would be unable to test nuclear weapons. All of these fears were unfounded.

Political propaganda.

[negi]

India will never use imported ore for it's bomb program not because of any deal/treaty because that is the way we roll, entire burden of playing world's maryada purshottam is on our SDRE shoulders, it has always been our burden and will continue to be so .

In any case we never needed imported ore for our tests so why would things change in future ?

[Gerard]

India has no need to use imported ore for its bombs

[Gerard]

in fact unofficially Man mohan made the DAE forsake testing as well

By Man mohan, I assume you mean the PM of India.

This concern for further testing is interesting given the anti-nuclear power stand.
Rather illogical. Unless all the ranting is political. And this is not a place for political discussions.

[negi]

Sanku maharaj why does NFC being under safeguards bother you ? You see moment the maal comes to NFC it means it is meant for making fuel bundles what goes into the stuff which we don't want IEAE to see will never come to NFC in the first place.

[Gerard]

Kudankulam nuclear plant to be commissioned in 40 days: Govt

[JohnTitor]

According to critics of the nuclear deal, there would be IAEA inspectors all over India by now. India would be unable to build nuclear weapons. India would be unable to test nuclear weapons. All of these fears were unfounded.

This (unable to test being unfounded) is yet to be seen. It does seem that man mohan singh has pushed india into NPT through the backdoor. Whether this is permanent or not is not easy to determine.

Although we had no such deal prior to 1998, indian governments were prevented through pressure from testing by the US. This is well known. The same pressure can and probably is exerted today.

I do hope that all the news regarding the thermo nuke being a dud is false. I also hope that if it is true, another test is conducted (at the expense of destroying the 123 agreement).

[amit]

According to critics of the nuclear deal, there would be IAEA inspectors all over India by now. India would be unable to build nuclear weapons. India would be unable to test nuclear weapons. All of these fears were unfounded.

This (unable to test being unfounded) is yet to be seen. It does seem that man mohan singh has pushed india into NPT through the backdoor. Whether this is permanent or not is not easy to determine.

Although we had no such deal prior to 1998, indian governments were prevented through pressure from testing by the US. This is well known. The same pressure can and probably is exerted today.

I do hope that all the news regarding the thermo nuke being a dud is false. I also hope that if it is true, another test is conducted (at the expense of destroying the 123 agreement).

Shonu,

I really don't know if the thermo nuke was a dud or worked according to design parameters. And I doubt if anyone on BRF knows either. In the absence of concrete evidence all we have left to discuss is who said what. We did that during the Santhanam saga and all said and done neither side was able to convince the other on whether the thermo was a dud or not.

However, another way of trying to understand is to see what actions are taken by India. In this case I think the Agni V launch is very important. I'm sure you've been going through the discussions in Missile dhaga on this just like me.

I think it's important that the scientists repeatedly mentioned that the missile fell "as a fireball". That means the missile was tested with a dummy warhead. And this would lead us to conclude that even though we folks on BRF haven't been able to resolve the thermo question, the folks in the strat community in India are pretty happy with whatever payload that will be on Agni V when it's ready. And considering the fact that everyone plus their Aunt have been saying the missile is for deterring China, I'm sure the strat community is confident that the maal sitting on top of Agni V will do just that.

IMO, all this means is that even if the thermo was a dud, at the present point of time the Indian strat community sees no need for a test. In future maybe but not now. Assuming that there will be a need to test in future, I ask you to keep in mind that in 1998 our GDP was in the region of $400-500 billion. Today it's in the region of $2 trillion, if we test towards the end of this decade it will be around $3.4-4 trillion. Let me assure you these numbers make a lot of difference. It's not for nothing that the US shows its impotency to China's blatant proliferation to its munnas NoKo and Pakistan. Chinese GDP and economic clout is the only reason. And this works for every country - both ways.

Even in India's case I don't know if you recall but there was lots of pressure from the US before the test launch of Agni 2 and as far as I can recall the testing was postponed several times and finally it was said to be a "tech demonstrator". Contrast that with the US reaction to Agni V. Heck they almost welcomed the test! I personally think a thermo test by India say around 2017-18 or thereabouts would elicit the same response from the West. Oh yes the Chinese might sanction us!

[amit]

in fact unofficially Man mohan made the DAE forsake testing as well

By Man mohan, I assume you mean the PM of India.

This concern for further testing is interesting given the anti-nuclear power stand.
Rather illogical. Unless all the ranting is political. And this is not a place for political discussions.

Spot on Gerard and good to see you posting again and giving a proper sense of perspective. In fact this whole question of whether or not we can use the imported maal for our military program is a giant red herring to paint "Man mohan" to be a "traitor".

If you recall one of the central arguments of the non-proliferation ayatollahs during the run up to the deal was that allowing India to import uranium for its power needs would free up all the local maal for exclusive use on the military side. That's exactly what's happening and yet we have a situation where folks are lamenting the fact that we can't (that's not correct as you've pointed out but choro) use foreign maal for our military needs.

There's another glaring dichotomy here. On the one hand we hear anti deal folks like Sanku saying that we have adequate uranium ore and so we don't need the deal which allows us to import uranium. But the same Sanku goes to great lengths to write essays on how discriminatory the deal is as it won't allow us to use imported maal in unsafeguarded reactors. Aare baba if we have enough of our own maal why the heck do we need the imported stuff for our military needs? Let the imported stuff be used for electricity generation and let the IAEA inspectors count every atom there is, who cares as long as they don't get anywhere near our unsafeguarded plants?

PS: General warning to fellow BRFites. Check under your bed before going to sleep to make sure an IAEA inspector is not lurking there.

[Amber G.]

Hydrogen is available abundantly {here on earth?}
I remember Guruji mentioning that H economy is fundamentally against 2nd law of T (yes capital T, if someone racalls).

Ignoring the noise and sankufication (copy right Prof Tripathi) of the thread.

Satyaji and others - I put a nice link (look for my previous post(s)) about H economy , but for those who are interested any good resource will do. I say this because it is important to know facts and some rather ignorant statements and absurd calculations have been posted here by a few "experts".

You are, of course, correct (and others eg gakakkad, have pointed this out too), we don't have free hydrogen. We can't mine it, as a gas it is light, and Earth's gravity is not strong enough to have any usable quantity in it's atmosphere. This is obvious, but I just mention it because it seems that some are confused.

Talking about, taking it out of water, is as you said, will require more energy than what it will practically produce. (Remember we are talking about chemical energy and not nuclear/fusion --- The binding energies of electronic orbits are around few eV vs millions of eV in nuclear shell)

Anyway here are few items, people should know if they want to be informed citizens to make decisions.. (As said before, any good resource will do, I am just putting really important points only)

- Fuel Cell is like a re-chargeable battery with the advantage that all you do is to refill it with the fuel. (with H2and O2)
- H can be burn like fuel too, with advantage that it does not produce CO2.
- Main disadvantage, storing it is little difficult, it is not very dense, in liquid form it is 14 times lighter than water (about 10 times lighter than petrol)...In pressurized gas form, it is about 2 times more voluminous.

If you look at my energy density post (in terms of asli-desi-ghee or adg), H is about 4 compared to gasoline as 1.5, so for equal weight, H gives about 2.6 times as much energy. but if you have to put it in your car tank, it will take 4 times more volume..

This is why people are less likely to use it in a car than , say , a bus or truck, or train.
(Indian Railways is actually looking at H as fuel)
Better is planes (where actual weigh of the is more important than size of the fuel tank).. and rockets (that's why rockets do use these kind of fuels)
***
As said before, we have to spend energy to get H, so in essence , H is more like transportation of energy rather than source.
***
One of the cheapest way to produce hydrogen is to spray steam on coal. This has been known/used for hundred of years. (And it is much more efficient than splitting H2O in H2 and O) This produces H and CO, burning CO gives extra energy but it produces CO2...
***
The idea is to use cheap solar power, (or other kind of power if one has more than needed) to produce H from H2O, and transport H (or store it and reuse it) as clean fuel.

Hope this is helpful.

[Amber G.]

in fact unofficially Man mohan made the DAE forsake testing as well

By Man mohan, I assume you mean the PM of India.

This concern for further testing is interesting given the anti-nuclear power stand.
Rather illogical. Unless all the ranting is political. And this is not a place for political discussions.

Gerard - Glad to see you posting again.
Yes, you presume correctly, By Man mohan he/they do mean PM of India.
Just like, as Amit has pointed out by farticle fyzicyst and a sidekick on a foreign paycheck he/they mean me.

Of course this is nothing new..I can see these definition by these guys for years, and they have been well documented .. eg see here
So let me help the younger janta ..
When they say Liars . Snake oil sellers, -[Men who] Walk on Water ( MWWOW), Traitors and Vapor ware sellers... they are invariably referring to India's leaders, scientists and so on. (Not a single word here is exaggeration )

Seriously, can brf leaders answer us Guru Prabhu's query in the very beginning of the "fresh" dhaga of this esteemed forum..

Afresh with what?

Finding fresh gaalis for scientists?

Finding fresh brains?

I suspect this dhagaa will be anything but fresh. But we can make like Ms Nirupama Rao and declare that Packees are looking at terror "afresh".

[Philip]

Last stand of the Quislings?

The KKM agitators are at it again,led by their fuhrer Udayakumar.They plan (media reports) to resume their fasts,etc.,on "Mayday",(pun intended),as the "State Govt. has not kept its promises to release arrested,drop charges of sedition,etc.,etc." This is because official reports say that in "40 days" the reactor will go onstream and a desperate last attemopt to sabotage the opening of KKM by the US/western N-suppliers is on the cards.Expect trouble.

It is very curious to note in fuhrer Udayakumar's arrogant demands is one item that the quislings are asking for,details of the "secret understanding between India and Russia on N-liability"! Now what has that got to do with safety of an N-plant?...nothing at all,as it refers to liability only in the case of an accident,but it indicates so obviously that the entire PMANE puppet movement is orchestrated by strings from abroad,where the western /US suppliers,who are refusing to play ball with the Indian parliament on N-liability,want to obtain through he quislings the technical details of the Russian reactors and the assurances given by Russia to either sabotage the Russian reactor deals,or find a less expensive way in which to sell their "dozen Westinghouse reactors" that India "promised to buy",by the mendicant of snake-oil!

[gakakkad]

if we conduct a nuclear test right now , the n-deal will be cancelled at the worst..so status quo ante ,onlee...if there was no n-deal there would have been no n-deal... so n-dal or not ,things remain the same after testing...

Now 10 years down the line ,when we have a gdp of 6-8t , even testing won't cancel the n-deal..political realities of the world would be different then...

[vina]

Phir wahi baat on Nook Deal ? The nook deal was and remains vitally important. Two reasons 1) It legitimizes India as a responsible nuclear power fully able to participate in the nuclear trade (notice how even recalcitrants such as White Paki Kangarooland and Soviet Canukcistan came on board) and 2) Given all the opposition and investments that coal will require (did someone notice how expensive imported coal too has become, Coal India has to dragged kicking and screaming via a Presidential Order to sign FSAs with powerplants and how many new powerplants are simply going to be unviable), the future is going to be a large percentage signficicantly nuclear.

Whichever way you cut and dice it, we don't have enough domestic uranium and the 3 stage program is going to take too long to breed enough fuel. You do need to import uranium (or as someone accurately put it, neutrons.. in that case, I ask, why go to the Gora Pakis at all,tell the Japanese and Koreans and others with tons of spent fuel to separate out the PU out of the spent fuel , lets import PU and lets put up PU fuel started thorium reactors ASAP and start breeding Thorium , and lets get the R&D on that and pilot plants done pronto).

Investing in rail and other infra to carry some 200 mil or 500mil tons of coal like Panda does is going to be crippling, costs horrendous, ecological consequences disastrous (more mining, more forest cover lost, more emissions) .

You need Nooks for base load power, stuff like solar, wind etc of course can top it off . Natural gas is a massively fungible resource and is better turned into fertilizers and high value chemicals and basic feed stock for that kind of stuff , rather than being burnt for energy.

Yes of course, Sanku Maharaj Ji's Fyzzics and "logic" not withstanding, it was a well considered decision and the UPA Govt and Manmohan Singh in particular deserve full credit for it. Baaki sab bakwaas hai and petty politiciking, especially by the BJP types who would have loved to do this deal if they were in power , but are green with envy that UPA did it.

[gakakkad]

we got a good deal..actual credit goes to kakodkar and co.. and some good bureaucrats .. MMS yes ..but not UPA... My chaiwalaas tell me that congress was more than willing to ditch the deal when commies weren't behaving well ...MMS stated his intention to resign ... It became and h&d + survival issue for congress..If mms goes , they ll have no face for the subsequent election... But if commies leave , the elections would come sooner than expected ..amar singh provided the solution ..not out of any goodwill for the nation..quid pro quo only...only mystery is about the involvement of the US diplomats as revealed by wiki leaks...but any comment there would be in the domain of speculation..

net..net..by a combination of accident , design ,croniness ,corruption ,horse trading etc we ended up getting a fair deal ...sometimes I feel India is destined to be something great.. We keep messing in just about everything...by merely surviving this far we have exceeded expectation ...but somehow things turn out right at the critical junction.. I wonder what would India have been now ,if PVNR did not take charge in 91..

MMS will never be held in the same esteem as pvnr ...because his faults are too many..but the N-DEal ...that he got right...

[amit]

<sorry duplicate post>

[amit]

MMS will never be held in the same esteem as pvnr ...because his faults are too many..but the N-DEal ...that he got right...

+100

Very good and fair post.

If MMS got one thing right in his years as PM it's the nuclear deal. And I suppose you could also add his quiet go ahead to develop Indian missiles. Agni V couldn't have happened if there wasn't support from the very top.

While he should rightly be criticises for his many failings let's give credit where it's due.

[negi]

Agni V was on road map even before MMS came to power; nuclear deal is just a logical conclusion of PoK-II it's only then the P-5 realized that keeping India in isolation after PoK-I actually did not work , until then the whole world was under the impression that sanctions and tight control over dual use technology worked and India's weapons program was stagnant. The Nuclear deal is in everyone's favour (includes us and the West) PoK-II was not, it was one of those rare occasions when India actually threw a punch befitting it's weight class.

[amit]

Agni V was on road map even before MMS came to power; nuclear deal is just a logical conclusion of PoK-II it's only then the P-5 realized that keeping India in isolation after PoK-I actually did not work , until then the whole world was under the impression that sanctions and tight control over dual use technology worked and India's weapons program was stagnant. The Nuclear deal is in everyone's favour (includes us and the West) PoK-II was not, it was one of those rare occasions when India actually threw a punch befitting it's weight class.

Negi ji,

Did anyone say that PoK-II was not what you describe it to be. You are 400 per cent correct and ABV did India proud.

However, if we take the first part of your argument about roadmaps and logical conclusions then wouldn't it be fair to say that the real credit for PoK-II should go to PVNR because, he's the one who laid the groundwork. Remember that story about him passing a little piece of paper to ABV? If the groundwork had not been done in advance there was no way India could have tested in such a short time after the BJP came to power. It was simply logistically not possible.

Also if one were to act as a Devil's Advocate, one could easily say that even if Agni V was on the roadmap, MMS could easily have disrupted the roadmap by ordering a clampdown, Na? Or we could say that ABV could have easily kicked the can further down, not wanting to disturb his fledgling government with a test that was guaranteed to bring sanctions?

But all that is semantics. I think right from PoK-II to Agni V we can see one message. And that is despite whatever political difference there may be, on larger scale Indian interests there is remarkable consensus between the major political groupings of India (the Left under Comrade Karat may be excused here - they have become irrelevant).

Actually irrespective of roadmaps etc the man at the helm should be given credit for not abandoning the roadmap by standing up to be counted. Which is why, rightly so, ABV should get credit for PoK-II and MMS should get credit for Agni V and the various follow ups that are coming. Neither reneged on the commitment/strategic vision of India.

And yes, just so that you know I think PoK-II was a far bigger gamble taken by ABV than MMS allowing Agni V. For that again my deepest respects to ABV; as I said before he did every Indian proud.

[amit]

Investing in rail and other infra to carry some 200 mil or 500mil tons of coal like Panda does is going to be crippling, costs horrendous, ecological consequences disastrous (more mining, more forest cover lost, more emissions) .

Good point Vina ji.

Some time back I had a long post which dealt with these points both economic as well as ecological. See here

Some excerpts from the transportation cost side:

Link 4

In 2007, India set itself up a plan to get electric power to 100% of its population.
By itself, a great and noble task. From a planning and logistics standpoint, it is a humungous task! Especially, given that 75% of this electricity would be generated by coal.

To meet this ambitious target involves more that just setting up a Power Plant. It involves the logistics of getting coal from the mines to the Power Plants or in the case of imported coal, the logistics of getting coal from the Ports to the Power Plants.

Current situation:

78459 MW x 80% Plant Load Factor x 2450 kCal/kWhr Heat Rate x 24hours x 365 days / 3300kCal Gross Calorific Value of coal= 408million MT per annum1

1 Have assumed no losses and wastage

Coal required per day

408 million MT per annum / 365 days = 1118397 MT/day

Trains to be loaded per day

Assuming that 90% of this coal moves on the Indian Railways network; the balance moves on private Merry-Go-Round network or by road.

90% x 118397 MT/3750 2 MT / rake=268 rakes (train loads)/day

2 Assumes carrying capacity +6 loading

FUTURE PLANS

India plans to add 78557MW of electric power generation capacity in the 11th 5 Year Plan (2007-2012) by year 2012.

Out of this 78557MW that would be added, 75%, 58644MW would be generated by coal.

Coal required per year

58644 MW x 80% Plant Load Factor x 2450 kCal/kWhr Heat Rate x 24hours x 365 days / 3300kCal Gross Calorific Value = 305million MT per annum

Coal required per day

305 million MT per annum / 365 days = 835616 MT/day

Trains to be loaded per day

Using the same assumption as above,[10% of this coal moves on private Merry-Go-Round network or by road]

90% x 835616 MT/3750 MT / rake=200 rakes (train loads)/day

200 rakes x 3 days average turnaround3 = 600 rakes = 600 x 59 wagons = 35400 wagons + 5% maintenance = 37170 wagons

This calls for an investment of Rs 4000 Crs @ Rs 20Crs ( 1 Cr = 10 million) per rake

Yes folks look at the logistics of coal transportation before saying nuclear is costly. I also find it remarkable that nobody talks about cost per MWe when they talk about "clean coal" tech using fancy things like CCS (carbon capture and sequestering) and other shebangs. All that will be over and above the sheer cost of transportation.

It's no wonder that recent plans for "clean coal" in the UK and other places have collapsed on pricing.

It's one thing to see pilot projects and quite another to see commercially viable 1000 MW power plants using "clean tech". Where are these plants and how much do they cost per MWe of generation? Can Indians afford the bijli cost?

[Neela]

Sankuji,
When you twist facts to suit a belief, people immediately start to doubt just about everything you say.
Consider this for example:

Well we have discussed the budgetary allocations, that data is visible.

Kindly point me to a article where budgetary allocations have been slashed.
Data from 2011 however seem to contradict your claims

“The budget figures give the impression that the outlay for Bhavini has been cut. But that is not the case. Actually, NPCIL has been asked by the government to channelise a part of its equity for Bhavini this financial year, around Rs 600 crore,” clarified a senior Bhavini executive. “This would not be a problem, as NPCIL has a comfortable cash surplus. In fact, NPCIL has hardly drawn any funds from the government in the past five years.” NPCIL currently holds 20 per cent equity in Bhavini.

This from someone who works there - it is one brown man over another. If you were white Sanku, I would have believed you over the brown man.

No plug has not been pulled, merely being slowly smothered to death.

Oh cry me a river. Dramatic much!

There was no reason to join the club at such usurious payment, that too for second grade membership. the way to join the club is to knock the door down.
We really are not getting anything from the deal if you see, the ENR and other sensitive tech is still locked up. We get yellowcake, but we are now told (and we well knew all through) that we have enough locally.
We get to buy their reactors and subsidize their Nuclear sector, that is all.
Man mohan has pulled a fast one.
PS> Am not calling you a troll and have no intention to I have always had a very civil debate with you and most others, barring one or two worthies.

Then are we subsidizing the western submarine industry? The Russian helicopter industry? French fighter industry.?
You will find this happening in every business - from the lowest-tech to highest . When my mom cannot make idlis and cononut chutney ( my favourite ) when we have guests, we buy from the local restaurant - else you will find people going hungry. It is not that she cannot make idlis - it is because she has other bigger priorities for the day.
We have found XXX million tonnes of new ore you say...great. Get all of that out in the next 5 years if you can. I bet my right scrotum you/anyone else cannot (except the Chinese who would pump in all the money and 10 gazillion ants workers to get it out ).
The issue is that we need the momentum and apparently someone from the finance side of GoI felt that an external injection of energy is needed.

[Theo_Fidel]

-duplicate-

[gakakkad]

fact remain that it is not even remotely feasible to completely replace coal for another 3 decades or so... In the three decades we must maximise research options in all possible directions..It includes various designs of nuclear reactors , renewable sources and increasing efficiency of our appliances so that we can hope to completely replace hydrocarbon+coal based fuel in half a century at least..

American power concumption ,per capita has come down in the past 2 decades and will further come down somewhat.. But India already has very low consumption per capita..So we have to make sure that the increase in per capita power corresponds to an increase in quality in the maximal efficient manner..

The tragedy with the anti-nuclear lobby is that they use the present indispensability of coal as a polemic against nuclear.. While I do acknowledge that it ll be a lot of work before nuclear can supply greater than 50% of our electricity ..will take 3 decades at least..

[Theo_Fidel]

Amit,

You are kidding yourself by trying to take on Coal. Essentially waving a ‘thundu beedi’ at the true 800lb Gorilla in the room. A gorilla that eats the nuclear industries lunch and essentially sustains the entire Indian economy. You don’t make fun of a industry that does so much for the nation by backing an industry that provides so little power.

You & Vina, are kidding yourselves by thinking rail transport and strip mining and cannibalizing entire states can be prevented. With present Nuclear ‘heroic’ projection of 90,000 MW all these will happen inevitably. It is the diversion of so much resources to a nuclear sector, that provides so little bang for buck that will force us down the path of greater and greater reliance on Coal. As has happened historically.

Without coal there is no Indian economy. This is not true of U-235 Nuclear power.

BTW 268 rakes per day is not that huge of a challenge for a rail network that runs 11,000 passenger rakes every day. Also the vast majority of coal plants will be at our ports and barges/coal haulers will transport it the rest of the way, domestic or imported.

My bigger concern has been with stripping the country side to get at the coal but the present Nuclear plans guarantee this, not prevent it.
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There are only 2 options over coal. Nuclear breeder (not prime time ready), and Renewable Wind/Solar (Close to primetime ready).

It must also be mentioned that to build even 90,000 MW of Nuclear the marginal prices on the reactors will be staggering. Most of it imported.
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WRT Bijli cost, I can guarantee you we won’t be able to afford the AREVA type Bijli plant. The wholesale cost/kw for New Nuclear in Europe and USA is now in the 12-16 cents/kw range and rising. The AP-1000 in Florida is running at 19 Cents/kw but some of that is because of the need to park the plant on a remote swamp area.
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The tragedy with the anti-nuclear lobby is that they use the present indispensability of coal as a polemic against nuclear.. While I do acknowledge that it ll be a lot of work before nuclear can supply greater than 50% of our electricity ..will take 3 decades at least..

I don’t see any anti-nuclear power stuff. I see an anti-nuclear power fantasy case.

The fact that the well funded Nuclear lobby, is able to sell this fantasy of giving us 50% of our power can only make me shake my head. The numbers are against even a 5% supply and here we have learned scientists claiming 50% supply. This after promising us 100,000MWh of capacity by 2000, failing spectacularly to give us even 2000 MW. It seems like the classic definition of madness….

[gakakkad]

who claimed 100k ? The current capacity is 4760 ..2000 will be added in koodankalam..and will be 10k by 2016..NPCIL expects 50-50k by 2030..no one ever claimed 100k by 2000..

[chaanakya]

The tragedy with the anti-nuclear lobby is that they use the present indispensability of coal as a polemic against nuclear.. While I do acknowledge that it ll be a lot of work before nuclear can supply greater than 50% of our electricity ..will take 3 decades at least..

Well I understand that you are a pragmatist and hence the ack. But projections by 2050 is somewhere 208-275 GWe for Nuclear as against 3000 GW for Coal.

These estimates assume that the FBR technology is successfully demonstrated by the 500 MW PFBR currently under construction. India succeeds in assimilating the LWR technology through import, becomes completely self-reliant on PHWRs develops the Advance Heavy Water Reactor for utilising thorium through an alternative route by 2020.

By 2032 N.Gas itself would be 20% of total generation.

to base the demand estimate on: (i) the assumption that 20% of power would begenerated using gas by 2031-32; (ii) the projected fertiliser (urea) capacity by 2031-32
would be all gas based; and (iii) remaining end uses of gas will continue to grow at 7% or 8% per annum depending upon GDP growth.

.

Amit CCS and CCT are two different things.

This is what Policy prepared by GOI ( whom you eulogise along with Amber but don't bother to read)

Efficiency of coal power plants themselves can be improved substantially. The average efficiency of generation from coal power plants is 30.5 percent. The best in the world operates with super critical boilers and gets an efficiency of 42 percent.
Germany is even claiming conversion efficiency of 46%. It should be possible to get an efficiency of 40 percent at an economically attractive cost for all new coal-based plants. This alone can reduce coal requirement by 114 mtoe( 274MT of Indian coal). Thus a very high priority should be given to developing or obtaining the technology for coal-based plants of high efficiency.

If Demand Side management (DSM) options are pursued to reduce demand for electricity through energy efficient processes equipments, lighting and buildings so that electricity demand is reduced by 15% by 2031-32, a reduction of 170 mtoe(408 mt of Indian coal) in coal requirement takes place. Studies have shown that economically attractive options of DSM exist to attain such reductions. Energy efficiency and DSM should have a very high priority. Policies to promote these are described in Chapter VI.

(j) If both energy efficiency of coal generation and DSM are pursued together along with higher freight share by Railways,coal demand comes down to 629 mtoe (1500 mt of Indian coal).The coal requirement of 636 mtoe (1526 mt) by 2031-32 now
almost seems possible to meet through domestic production.

If you have environmental concerns in World context you should consider this.

This is for you Gakakkad

Nuclear, on the other hand, theoretically offers India the most potent means to long-term energy security. India has to succeed in realising the three-stage development process described in the main report and thereby tap its vast thorium resource to become truly energy independent beyond 2050. Continuing support to the three-stage development of India’s nuclear potential is considered essential.

Unless we rely fully on imported reactors and fuels , which are equally susceptible to disruptions, it would not ensure energy independence/secirity.

The resources of GOI are indeed vast and much effort has gone into preparing the policy which does not envisage Nuclear component more that 6-10% of total energy mix notwithstanding the fulminations of Nuclear Jehadis ( read whatever you like) .

[chaanakya]

who claimed 100k ? The current capacity is 4760 ..2000 will be added in koodankalam..and will be 10k by 2016..NPCIL expects 50-50k by 2030..no one ever claimed 100k by 2000..

What is K???

[Neela]

[ Shakes head as energy unit is wrong.....again! Speaks volumes! ]

[gakakkad]

K = 1000 onlee .

[chaanakya]

K = 1000 onlee .

For what?? Electricity generation?? In which context you are using it?

[gakakkad]

i used it as mw..theo said that someone claimed to power 100k mw by 2000...in that context..

[chaanakya]

i used it as mw..theo said that someone claimed to power 100k mw by 2000...in that context..

Well your Unit was wrong then. Should have been explicit.

[gakakkad]

^^I did not use any unit..more colloquial type..

[Satya_anveshi]

Thanks Amber G ji for your links and posts on H viability.