India Nuclear News And Discussion

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somnath
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by somnath »

Pratyush wrote:Amit,

I have fail to understand why this is a concern to the supplier when he can transfer the additional cost incurred by him for getting the nuke liability Insurance to the user of the equipment at the implementation stage.

JMT
While I am not Amit, thought will share some thoughts on the issue taking off from the question on an idle (pre-new year) day in office!

Pratyush, the supplier cannot "transfer the cost" simply because there is no such cost estimate available - no insurance company will sell a "nuke insurance policy" for 80 years...In case they did, the premiums charged will absolutely surely make every project way beyond unviable.

IMO the supplier liability legislation is a very poor piece of law, it violates basic tenets of both international nuclear laws as well as common law (on issues like tort) that India subscribes to.

One, it is safe to assume that unlimited supplier liability cannot be covered by any insurance policy.

Two, no supplier is going to quote competitively in case they are covered under the same, and the projects will end up being unviable from the word go.

Three, it is pretty much dysfunctional in the real world..Say the previous two points are "ceterus paribus" on the contrary...Areva supplies the reactor, but components will be supplied by many companies...How many companies have the credit standing to really service a contingent liability like that? Even if they sign up to it initially...No bank is going to underwrite that sort of a g'tee...Most companies in face of an actual liability like this would find it more profitable to simply declare bankruptcy!

Last, and the big variable is that compensation in industrial accidents is a function of political power and will..BP was subject to no "liabilities" strictly legally speaking (barring some minor ones relating to environment) for the oil spill...But the US govt wrangled 20 billion out of them...If there is God forbid an accident, the proclivity of the supplier (say Areva, or Rosatom) to pay will be in direct proportion to India's political clout in making them pay, not in some domesic Indian law...Because faced with a 20 billion claim, Areva/Rosatom can simply refuse to pay and challenge the opoerator (NPCIL) to international, or worse, French (and worst, Russian!!!!) arbitration..

Pretty much all suppliers around the world will have the same problem, and the govt realises that as well, political noises aside..They will work around the law, and we are already seeing signs of that...That of course begs the question - why pass such a dysfunctional piece of legislation in the first place?
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Somnath,

I appreciate the clarity of your reply. My lack of understanding of the suppliers concern stems from my understanding of the statutory Liability Insurances in India.

The Nuke liability will not work any differently from the aforementioned insurances.

In case of the (WC) the contractor is able to transfer his labour cost + Insurance premium to the principle as he is also able to do so with the EAR / CAR insurances. The same way the nuke supplier will be able to transfer his Insurance premium costs to the user. Because it is a net cost to him and the price of the Item will have to include all the costs which went into it.

The concern and pricing the premium will rest with the underwriters of the Nuke Liability Insurance. In this case the liability will have to be priced by the GIC Re http://www.gicofindia.com/ in consultation with General Insurace council of India http://gicouncil.in/default.asp. Which is a body of all the general Insurance comapnies in the absence of the Tariff Advisory Comette.

The risk in principle can be covered to the extent of the usefull service life of the component in question. After which the component will have to be replaced. If not for the whole of 80 years.
Two, no supplier is going to quote competitively in case they are covered under the same, and the projects will end up being unviable from the word go.
In part even I have this concern. But have not seen the user worried about the costs being transferred to it. So I assume that they are ready to pay the additional costs in this regard. So I have never raised it.
Last, and the big variable is that compensation in industrial accidents is a function of political power and will..BP was subject to no "liabilities" strictly legally speaking (barring some minor ones relating to environment) for the oil spill...But the US govt wrangled 20 billion out of them...If there is God forbid an accident, the proclivity of the supplier (say Areva, or Rosatom) to pay will be in direct proportion to India's political clout in making them pay, not in some domesic Indian law...Because faced with a 20 billion claim, Areva/Rosatom can simply refuse to pay and challenge the opoerator (NPCIL) to international, or worse, French (and worst, Russian!!!!) arbitration....
True to that extent. But going by the Bhopal example. Even in the face of massive Public outrage the GOI will not go beyond a certain point. Which is to say that it will act in a manner which will protect the Interests of the supplier rather then the Victimes.
Pretty much all suppliers around the world will have the same problem, and the govt realises that as well, political noises aside..They will work around the law, and we are already seeing signs of that...That of course begs the question - why pass such a dysfunctional piece of legislation in the first place?

JMT
The true test of a legislation lies in the way it responds in a given situation. We will have to wait and see how it perfromes in the case of an accident. I hope & pray that we dont need to learn just how effective this legislation will be in the real world.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

Pratyush wrote:But have not seen the user worried about the costs being transferred to it. So I assume that they are ready to pay the additional costs in this regard. So I have never raised it.
Pratyush,

Somnath has given you a comprehensive reply so I'm not going into that. However, you could have a look at this which I posted several pages ago.

Regarding your point about the user not being worried you miss the central point. And that is no detailed pricing negotiations have started. Everything so far has been in the ball park range and does not take into account insurance costs because none of the suppliers, be it major components or sub-suppliers have look to take insurance cover. Once that happens then we can see what kind of costing comes out.
But going by the Bhopal example.
Tragic as the Bhopal gas tragedy was and the powerlessness shown by the GoI in wrangling just compensation from the then Union Carbide, I have to remind you yet again that comparing Nuclear power plants which will be run by NPCIL and the Bhopal plant are apples and oranges comparison. Once again, do note that it has been established the fault for the gas leak rest squarely with the operator of the plant, Union Carbide and not on the companies which supplied the equipment to the plant.

In this case the liability is being fixed on the equipment suppliers (which as the above article states, more than 60 per cent would be Indian so within Indian jurisdiction).
Last edited by amit on 27 Dec 2010 15:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

To add to my post above, here's another old post which gives more details.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

amit wrote:
Pratyush wrote:But have not seen the user worried about the costs being transferred to it. So I assume that they are ready to pay the additional costs in this regard. So I have never raised it.


Somnath has given you a comprehensive reply so I'm not going into that. However, you could have a look at this which I posted several pages ago.

Regarding your point about the user not being worried you miss the central point. And that is no detailed pricing negotiations have started. Everything so far has been in the ball park range and does not take into account insurance costs because none of the suppliers, be it major components or sub-suppliers have look to take insurance cover. Once that happens then we can see what kind of costing comes out.

Amit,

I have understood the concerns raised by your earlier post as well as this one. I will restate my opinion and belief that unless the user comes back and clearly and unambigusly says that the liability regime is hampering my business of providing chep electricity. So please alter the act in a way which helps and not hinders this Industry. The suppliers should not be botherd by the act.

Cause they can transfer the costs to the user. The same point has also been made by Mr Niak of L&T as well in the post linked by you. I would like the plant operator to come out and clearly state that this section is making Nuke power unaffordable for the masses so please change the act.

Alternatively, the Nuke liability risk premium can be pooled like it is being done for the terrorism risk. It ought to keep the premiums low.

Tragic as the Bhopal gas tragedy was and the powerlessness shown by the GoI in wrangling just compensation from the then Union Carbide, I have to remind you yet again that comparing Nuclear power plants which will be run by NPCIL and the Bhopal plant are apples and oranges comparison. Once again, do note that it has been established the fault for the gas leak rest squarely with the operator of the plant, Union Carbide and not on the companies which supplied the equipment to the plant.

In this case the liability is being fixed on the equipment suppliers (which as the above article states, more than 60 per cent would be Indian so within Indian jurisdiction)
By quotation of Bhopal was in context of the GOIs action when faced with a massive loss of life and compared with the Interets of the Plant owner. It has been disgusting and disappointing to say the least. I have no reason to believe that in the unfortunate event of a Nuke plant going mushroom it will act in a manner which does any thing other then to protect the interests of the supplier and operator.

Personaly, I am in favour of this section as it is a progressive legislation. As the Supplier cannot escape his responsibility for supplying substandard equipment.

That it makes Nuke power expensive is some thing that can be discussed and way can be found to mitigate the cost rise. But the section it self ought not be touched or modified in a way which makes it impotent.

I hope I am clear.

JMT
Last edited by Pratyush on 27 Dec 2010 16:25, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by GuruPrabhu »

Basically, Babooz have to fix a royal mess created by Netajis. Let's see if Netajis can fix the mess being created by NGO brigade. Meanwhile nuke power to mango man is delayed. We need a Sreedharan or even a Pitroda in the nuke sector.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by somnath »

Pratyush wrote:I would like the plant operator to come out and clearly state that this section is making Nuke power unaffordable for the masses so please change the act.
Pratyush, the only nuke operator in our context is NPCIL, which is part of the govt. Whatever the management of NPCIL thinks, it can hardly go public with objections against a law that was sponsored by the incumbent govt! So operator concern, or the lack of it is a bit of a non-sequitor...The actual proof of the pudding is when reactor deals are signed up (not MoUs, but actual contracts) and they receive financial closure..Till now, no binding contract with financial closure has been signed with anyone...What we have seen though is that multiple suppliers - from Areva to Rosatom and of course the US johnies have all baulked at the law...
Pratyush wrote:My lack of understanding of the suppliers concern stems from my understanding of the statutory Liability Insurances in India.

The Nuke liability will not work any differently from the aforementioned insurances.
No Indian insurer has any experience of nuclear liability...The problem is that no global insurer too has the experience of the same in the context of a law that talks of "unlimited liability"...I dont see how any Indian insurance company can suddenly start building models around this and quote a "viable" price...As an aside, GIC is not an insurance company, its a "reinsurance" company - but thats a matter of detail..

As for Bhopal, quite frankly the presence of a law means nothing if there is no political will (and ability) to pursue the offender. It isnt as if the compensation in the bhopal case would have been higher if only there was a "law" in place (in any case, as Amit points out, the culpability lies with Union Carbide which was the operator of the plant, and not its equipment supplier)...Drawing a parallel to the nuke scenario, that would put NPCIL, and in effect, the GOI as the responsible entity each time there is an acident..

The govt is not stupid, its already working in the background to tailor the law in line with international norms...

In some ways, pasing of this law was good..It set the bar so high that even by climbing down a bit, we will have a lot of suppliers by their proverbials...
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Somnath,

When I say clear I mean to the GOI as it is the promoter.

Experience of the nuke liability insurance can be drawn based on the experience of the commercially operated NPPs globally and the equipment causality rates and the consequences there off.

It is all there. It just has not been priced and factored as yet for the Nuke Liability Insurance as yet. The cost of the component how vital it is to the safety of the nuke plant. What the expected service life. The repair cycle. The MTBF. Etc. its all there. All you need to do is acturaly analyze it.

I say this with more then a touch of regret. That I wish I had not left my last organization & Industry else I would have answered all your questions as I would have answered the same questions for the Indian Nuke liability Insurance policy.

The operator at no point of time should loose the right to recourse when it comes to Nuke accident responsibility. Cause it sets the supplier free in the case of an accident. Which being the case we will be end up looking at another Bhopal. 200000 + dead. No compensation no Environmental cleanup. Just poisoned land and destroyed lives.

WRT Bhopal,

Both Amit and you have failed to understand the context in which I raised it. I am not concerned by the culpability of the operator or the supplier. I am concerned by the conduct of the GOI and how disgusting it was. When It sold the Interests of its citizens to the alter of foreign investment.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Airavat »

TIMES NOW's Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami debates the issue of world's largest nuclear plant being okayed at Jaitaput in Maharashtra, despite safety and environmental worries with Chandan Mitra, Editor-in-Chief, The Pioneer and MP, BJP; Praful Bidwai, Environmentalist; K Santhanam, former Director, DRDO; Jayanthi Natrajan, National Spokesperson, Congress and Debi Goenka, Environmentalist.

TIMES NOW DEBATE ON JAITAPUR (VIDEO)
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by somnath »

Pratyush wrote:Experience of the nuke liability insurance can be drawn based on the experience of the commercially operated NPPs globally and the equipment causality rates and the consequences there off
That my friend, is precisely the problem..Existing liability insurance for nuke power plants are subject to both amount and time caps..Different jurisdictions have imposed different frameworks - EU has one, the IAEA has a second, the US has a third..All of them have one variable in common - enunciation of an amount cap on the liability..The problem with the Indian law is that the liabiliy is open-ended in time and money terms, which is precisely what makes it so hard to insure...I would say nearly impossible to do an acturial estimation of..

Lastly,
I am concerned by the conduct of the GOI and how disgusting it was. When It sold the Interests of its citizens to the alter of foreign investment.
Well, that again is the crux of the matter..Compensation in industrial accidents is a function of the will and ability of the govt to armtwist the offender (and of course the ability of the offender to pay)...Presence or absence of a domestic Indian law really does not do much in that respect......
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Somnath,

My views on the first point of your last post are diffrent from yours. The legal & liability frame work for the diffrent NPP is one thing. The performance of the actual components is another. If the components and the failure rates are studied we could arrive at the criticallity of the equipment and the likely hood of failure. Along with the consequences (catstrophic to there being no consequence ) of that failure. Granted that it will not be equal for all previous NPP operators. As there would be diffrence in operating phylosophy and industrial base. But it gives the underwriter the ability to understand the risk and price it accordingly in context of the Indian Liability law and Insurance.


WRT the point no 2, I am in complete agreement with you.

JMT
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Neshant »

That my friend, is precisely the problem..Existing liability insurance for nuke power plants are subject to both amount and time caps..Different jurisdictions have imposed different frameworks - EU has one, the IAEA has a second, the US has a third..All of them have one variable in common - enunciation of an amount cap on the liability..
As the 20 billion BP shakedown despite a cap shows... the caps are changed by the powers that be as and when it suites them.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

Pratyush wrote:The operator at no point of time should loose the right to recourse when it comes to Nuke accident responsibility. Cause it sets the supplier free in the case of an accident. Which being the case we will be end up looking at another Bhopal. 200000 + dead. No compensation no Environmental cleanup. Just poisoned land and destroyed lives.
Boss,

Sorry to say this but the discussion is fast becoming a bit pointless. I guess we'll have to wait and see how the cookie crumbles.

But do note the point is not whether the operator - in this case NPCIL - will lose the right to recourse. That was/is not even on the table. The point of contention which the Indian nuclear industry is bring up is that standard existing international nuclear liability laws run for 40 years. This bill takes that up to 80 years.

This sums up the issue nicely (again all this has been discussed on this very thread):
Twenty-eight national laws and three international nuclear liability
conventions all channel such third-party liability to the operator of a
nuclear installation, but limit the amount of operator liability, under a
no-fault principle that is designed to facilitate and accelerate compensation.

Under the existing international system, suppliers do bear commercial
liability for their products, but that is usually limited in time and scope,
whereas nuclear liability is long-term--up to 80 years--and covers a broad
scope of potential damage.
Source is here

It also says this:
Nuclear law specialists say the clause will prevent India from joining the Convention on Supplementary Compensation--one of the three international treaties in the field--and will make nuclear power more expensive because suppliers will have to take out liability insurance, assuming the insurance market will even provide it.
It still remains to be seen if global insurance market would provide a 80 year cover. And we are not even talking about the big ticket equipment like the reactor containment vessel of some such. We are also taking about small gaskets and widgets that go into the making of a plant. Some 300 suppliers, typically work on the plant (see below)

And your earlier point about NPCIL having no objection is not really correct. As Somnath pointed out NPCIL is a govt body and so there are limits to what its officials can say in public. Despite that, in a first reaction to the law Sudhinder Thakur, executive director, corporate planning and corporate communications, Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd said:
“Undoubtedly, the government has powers to make laws, but in the process of making such laws we should not defeat the purpose for which the laws are made since with the current formulation of 17b, no manufacturer, Indian or foreign, would be able to serve the nuclear power industry.
Unfortunately I can't seem to find the original link where he made this remark. However this link has the above direct quote which I remember is exactly what Thakur said.

The link also adds:
Thakur added that in the process of setting up nuclear power plants a large number of suppliers contribute in varying degrees and they, in turn, have many sub-suppliers. All these suppliers provide material according to the specifications of the operator and their obligations in terms of latent or patent defects are incorporated in the respective contracts. “No supplier, Indian or foreign, would be willing to take the liability on account of recourse of the operator for the period of some 80-odd years after the contract is executed. Under the circumstances, the provisions of 17b are neither practical nor implementable,” he concluded.
I think you would agree with me that a govt official can't be more explicit about the "ill effects" of a Govt law.

The link also quotes the L&T boss, A M Naik, as saying:
He pointed out that typically, 300 to 400 suppliers and service providers (including small and medium enterprises) are engaged for each nuclear plant. The Bill has introduced clause 17, under which after settling the civil nuclear liability claims, the operator shall have a right to recourse against the suppliers. Naik pointed out that this clause on suppliers’ liability beyond their terms of supply — that is for 60 years of plant life plus 20 years of the claim liability period — is neither practical nor justifiable. “Any clauses requiring a unreasonably high liability would deter participation from major suppliers,” he said.

Naik also pointed out that since all suppliers are commercial organisations, they would not be in a position to accept contracts with unlimited liability. In the case of unreasonably high liability, most suppliers would not be in a position to obtain insurance coverage to back these orders and, therefore, will not be able to contribute to the programme. Alternatively, suppliers would have to pay extremely high premiums for insurance coverage during the life of the plant. The costs of this insurance coverage would be transferred to the plant operator and ultimately to the consumers. All this, put together, would deter large-scale participation in the programme by the Indian nuclear industry
So you see there was instant opposition to the bill from end-users as well as suppliers - and all of them Indian not foreign suppliers with "vested interests". The opposition stemmed from the practicality of imposing the law.

Any law has to cut a fine balance of what is achievable and what is desirable. If the desire is to prevent any chance of nuclear accidents the best law is to ban nuclear power generation. However, doing that means giving a crippling blow to India's electricity generation capacity (let me clarify I mean the clean technology side, before the trolls jump in). So a balance has to be reached in which the equipment suppliers can be held liable in the event of an accident and yet at the same time open up the market. It could be the the current bill may not have got the balance right.

We gotta to see how this pans out.

One final point: Regarding you Bhopal related comment:
I am concerned by the conduct of the GOI and how disgusting it was. When It sold the Interests of its citizens to the alter of foreign investment.
Boss, if you have such concern event the most cast iron laws are not going to cut the ice. Remember the GoI owns NPCIL. If it chooses not to pursue the compensation what is everyone else going to do about it?
Last edited by amit on 28 Dec 2010 11:02, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by somnath »

Neshant wrote: As the 20 billion BP shakedown despite a cap shows... the caps are changed by the powers that be as and when it suites them.
Precisely, in fact the techncal legal liability for BP would be a very small number..So absence of a "law" did not prevent the GOTUS from armtwisting BP.....
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by GuruPrabhu »

Pratyush wrote: If the components and the failure rates are studied we could arrive at the criticallity of the equipment and the likely hood of failure. Along with the consequences (catstrophic to there being no consequence ) of that failure. Granted that it will not be equal for all previous NPP operators. As there would be diffrence in operating phylosophy and industrial base. But it gives the underwriter the ability to understand the risk and price it accordingly in context of the Indian Liability law and Insurance.
Boss,

You think some insurance chappie will understand the risks of nuke reactors? LOL. And that too by studying history of failure rates? Second LOL. There have been very very few failures and each one unique. There is no history and no pattern.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by GuruPrabhu »

India has had nuke power for decades without any call for liability law. Russian reactors entered without any problems. The takleef is purely against American entities. They should just pass a law that says American suppliers will be liable for $1,000,000,00,000,000,000,000,000,000 and be done with it. The debate is amusingly silly.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

GuruPrabhu wrote: Boss,

You think some insurance chappie will understand the risks of nuke reactors? LOL. And that too by studying history of failure rates? Second LOL. There have been very very few failures and each one unique. There is no history and no pattern.
Guru,

You do not understand the process of risk pricing and product development in Insurance, that is what I will conclude from your post and leave it at that.

Regards
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by GuruPrabhu »

Yes, Boss, I understand nothing. But you of course understand nuke reactor failure rates 400% onlee. :)

I will leave it at that also. The "debate" is very amusing -- anti-Americanism couched in some very high funda stuff.

What folks forget is that in the case of Union Carbide, India screwed Indians by letting the CEO flee.

In this case also, India is scoring self goal against Indians.

Chalta hai, Boss!
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Amit,

Lets agree to disagree, as I feel that we are looking at same problem from diametrically opposing POVs. So I will not say that you are wrong nor will I conced that I am in error.

You are correct from where you are looking at the problem. If I had been looking at it with the Same POV then I may fully agree with you. But I am not looking at it that way. I am looking at how the act can be Implimented. Along with how the Liability Insurnce can be priced.

I dont have the complete answer as I don't have the complete information required to give an answer. Due to the reasons I have mentioned in my previous posts. But trust me when I say. The answers exist and are quite affordable. (The last is purly from my Musharraff :P )

Regards

JMT
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

Pratyush wrote:Amit,

Lets agree to disagree, as I feel that we are looking at same problem from diametrically opposing POVs. So I will not say that you are wrong nor will I conced that I am in error.

You are correct from where you are looking at the problem. If I had been looking at it with the Same POV then I may fully agree with you. But I am not looking at it that way. I am looking at how the act can be Implimented. Along with how the Liability Insurnce can be priced.

I dont have the complete answer as I don't have the complete information required to give an answer. Due to the reasons I have mentioned in my previous posts. But trust me when I say. The answers exist and are quite affordable. (The last is purly from my Musharraff :P )

Regards

JMT
Fair enough. :wink:

But since you have expertise on insurance matters and think an 80 year liability (mind you 80 years because that is the expected life time of a nuclear generation plant, it could go up to 100 years if technologies are developed along the road to further increase the life of a plant) is from an insurance POV quite affordable and can be worked out, it would have been interesting to know what you think of what Sudhinder Thakur and Naik (L&T) feel/said.

Interesting because it seems you know something (about how insurance liabilities are worked out) that they don't know.

As for myself, I don't have any particular expertise in either nuclear matters as well as insurance liabilities and so I depend on what the experts say/feel before formulating my POV.

JMT
Last edited by amit on 28 Dec 2010 12:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by GuruPrabhu »

Pratyush wrote: The answers exist and are quite affordable. (The last is purly from my Musharraff :P )
Thank you. Let us just leave it at that.

The answer would be simple if American companies were kept out of the market like that brave man George Fernandes did. Why bother with laws-shaws?
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not to get into the above discussion, but I find it interesting that when talking about the possibility of nuclear accidents in India, the example of Bhopal is bought up all the time and not Chernobyl or Three Miles. I would have thought there are as many lessons to be learnt from these two as there are from Bhopal which was a chemical leak.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

amit wrote:
Fair enough. :wink:

But since you have expertise on insurance matters and think an 80 year liability (mind you 80 years because that is the expected life time of a nuclear generation plant, it could go up to 100 years if technologies are developed along the road to further increase the life of a plant) is from an insurance POV quite affordable and can be worked out, it would have been interesting to know what you think of what Sudhinder Thakur and Naik (L&T) feel/said.
Amit,

Naik, has said exactly what I have stated in my previous posts on this thread. That when the cost of Isurance are transfered to the user. The end price for the user will go up. This is the underlying expectation in my post when I say that the supplier ought not worry about the cost incereas as they can transfer it to the user. As for Mr Thakur, this is exactly the concern even he has, based on my reading of what he has said, accounting for the users POV.

Hope this clarifies. :)
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by somnath »

Some interesting facts about nuclear insurance..

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf67.html
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

amit wrote:^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not to get into the above discussion, but I find it interesting that when talking about the possibility of nuclear accidents in India, the example of Bhopal is bought up all the time and not Chernobyl or Three Miles. I would have thought there are as many lessons to be learnt from these two as there are from Bhopal which was a chemical leak.

Agree with you fully that the abovementioned accident have the most to teach us when it comes to teaching NPP safety.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

Pratyush wrote:Amit,

Naik, has said exactly what I have stated in my previous posts on this thread. That when the cost of Isurance are transfered to the user. The end price for the user will go up. This is the underlying expectation in my post when I say that the supplier ought not worry about the cost incereas as they can transfer it to the user. As for Mr Thakur, this is exactly the concern even he has, based on my reading of what he has said, accounting for the users POV.

Hope this clarifies. :)
There are many ways to cut the cake.

Naik also said this:
“Any clauses requiring a unreasonably high liability would deter participation from major suppliers,” he said... since all suppliers are commercial organisations, they would not be in a position to accept contracts with unlimited liability... most suppliers would not be in a position to obtain insurance coverage to back these orders and, therefore, will not be able to contribute to the programme.

Alternatively, suppliers would have to pay extremely high premiums for insurance coverage during the life of the plant. The costs of this insurance coverage would be transferred to the plant operator and ultimately to the consumers. All this, put together, would deter large-scale participation in the programme by the Indian nuclear industry

Thakur says:
... no manufacturer, Indian or foreign, would be able to serve the nuclear power industry.”
So I take it you also agree with Naik (and Thakur) in as much that the insurance cover would be very high and this would deter largescale participation in the programme? In effect both are saying that this law will probably be a deal breaker in its present form.

Am I right to assume you also think so, since you say your POV is in broad agreement with what Naik - and by extension Thakur - are saying?
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Amit,

I agree with them to the extent that the costs will go up. But unless I know just what the premiums will be for specific category of equipment and the resultant cost escalations there off. I would say that it is premature to say just what the effect it will have on the NPP operator and by extension the end user. Thus, by extension it is premature to say that it is a deal breaker in it current form.

As and when the Premium rates for specific category of equipments become known to us I may change my position in the light of that additional information.

As of this moment even the gentlemen in question ( Niak & Thakur )are not aware of this (% of cost escalation as a result of the premium). To me this will become an issue when the premiums are known.

As for no Indian manufacturer being able to serve the Industry, I am forced say that ATM I don't agree with the conclusion of Mr Thakur. Because he is not aware of the Insurance premium mark ups for the components and by extention the NPP it self. Its just a fear he has expressed. Which though not completely unfounded is undefined ATM, due to the factor I have mentioned above.

So I will say that ATM I disagree with the conclusion of MR Thakur & Niak that the Act will make the participation un viable for the domestic industry.

JMT
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

somnath wrote:Some interesting facts about nuclear insurance..

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf67.html

Thanks for providing the link for this wonderful learning resource
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

Pratyush wrote:Amit,

I agree with them to the extent that the costs will go up. But unless I know just what the premiums will be for specific category of equipment and the resultant cost escalations there off. I would say that it is premature to say just what the effect it will have on the NPP operator and by extension the end user. Thus, by extension it is premature to say that it is a deal breaker in it current form.

As and when the Premium rates for specific category of equipments become known to us I may change my position in the light of that additional information.

As of this moment even the gentlemen in question ( Niak & Thakur )are not aware of this (% of cost escalation as a result of the premium). To me this will become an issue when the premiums are known.

As for no Indian manufacturer being able to serve the Industry, I am forced say that ATM I don't agree with the conclusion of Mr Thakur. Because he is not aware of the Insurance premium mark ups for the components and by extention the NPP it self. Its just a fear he has expressed. Which though not completely unfounded is undefined ATM, due to the factor I have mentioned above.

So I will say that ATM I disagree with the conclusion of MR Thakur & Niak that the Act will make the participation un viable for the domestic industry.

JMT

Ok Pratyush, I get it. Thanks for clearing the matter up. So ATM you do not agree with the POV expressed by Naik and Thakur.

Indications are the there will have to be some legal gymnastics performed as the oligopoly (also called nuclear suppliers cartel) consisting of Russia, France and the US plus a few other smaller players have stated pretty clearly that they don't like the law and it could also be that the law does not tally with the provisions of various multilateral treaties. It doesn't for example tally with the deal we already have with Russia.

Let's wait and see what happens.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by vera_k »

The supplier liability law was the outcome of the UPA trying to cheap out on the compensation that may be provided in case of an accident. The irony is that, a good corpus of say $10 billion could have been set aside already in order to create an insurance pool, using a fraction of the revenues lost in the 2G scam.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

vera_k wrote:The supplier liability law was the outcome of the UPA trying to cheap out on the compensation that may be provided in case of an accident. The irony is that, a good corpus of say $10 billion could have been set aside already in order to create an insurance pool, using a fraction of the revenues lost in the 2G scam.
Vera,

I can understand your pain at the loot in the 2G scam and I emphasize with it. However, the real world is not a zero sum game.

So this kind of agenda-driven "analysis" does not take the discussion further in either the nuclear discussion nor in the understanding of the 2G scam.

The way you write it, it seems that the "super liability law" was passed by the NDA to ensure that the UPA does not loot the nation in this case as well! :eek:
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by vera_k »

It was passed like that because that was the only (or cheapest?) way to get it past Parliament. I feel it is a good thing, because the maximum compensation in the law is low even now. They could fix it by increasing that limit, but the excuses trotted out then were about how such a large limit was not practical. Well, a large maximum liability does not seem that outlandish now, after the kind of money available to the government is taken into account.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

vera_k wrote: Well, a large maximum liability does not seem that outlandish now, after the kind of money available to the government is taken into account.
So in effect you are saying that you'd like the GoI to pay for any accident that may occur in a nuclear power plant built with foreign equipment?

In that case what's the need for a nuclear liability bill which - from what I gather - is to make sure that foreign equipment suppliers pay adequate compensation in the case of an accident.

I wonder what you're trying to get at?
They could fix it by increasing that limit, but the excuses trotted out then were about how such a large limit was not practical.
I suggest you read up on exisiting international compensation norms in the nuclear industry before making such sweeping comments.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by GuruPrabhu »

amit wrote:I wonder what you're trying to get at?
Pardon me but I have my take. This is not a flame-bait just my view. Some of the opinions on this topic have become so circular that they have left behind the old classic, to wit:
If I had some ham, I'd make ham and eggs, if I had some eggs
The opinions expressed are very deep in all forms of bashing of everyone and their brother but not one post in dozens of threads that addresses the main topic (at least I hope it is still the main topic) of:
How do we get cheap nuke electricity to mango man in a hurry?
JMT etc etc
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Vera,

A pool can be build up and in a way it is one of the ways of sharing and managing the liability risk. The matter open to discussion would be how to go about building the pool. Whether the GOI should or the vendors should create the pool and the same is managed by the GOI as an irrovakable public trust giving it a perpetual existence.

Moreover, by existence of this pool and the funds collected by it can be revised upwards due to contributions of the members as time goes by.

This pool can either exist as a stand alone cover for the Nuke liability. Or it can act as a suppliment for the nuke liability insurance. Depending upon how it is concieved and operationalised.

This is in fact an extreamly exciting proposition when you look at as a risk management and mitigation excercise.

JMT
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

GuruPrabhu wrote:How do we get cheap nuke electricity to mango man in a hurry?

Boss I don't consider you post a flame-bait at all. In fact it's probably one of the most relevant posts in the past two pages.

Your point is indeed the most relevant one but has been lost in this debate.

Otherwise how else do you explain the fact that there's an attempt to drag the 2G scam into this discussion! :roll:

Insurance cover may be worked out. But what's going to be effect on the mango man in terms of what his electricity bill will look like at the end of the month? These are things that need to be addressed as well as otherwise all this becomes just an academic discussion.

I believe Thakur, Naik and others put up the warning bells precisely for this reason. Cost per unit of electricity at the end of the day is the most important number. We just can't treat it as an incidental number in an accounting table.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by vera_k »

amit wrote:So in effect you are saying that you'd like the GoI to pay for any accident that may occur in a nuclear power plant built with foreign equipment?

In that case what's the need for a nuclear liability bill which - from what I gather - is to make sure that foreign equipment suppliers pay adequate compensation in the case of an accident.
The issue from day 1 has been about getting adequate compensation to people in the case of a disaster. In came the first and subsequent proposals with lowball liability limits, which ignited a storm of protest. The fact that foreign equipment suppliers are now caught up in the details is a consequence of persisting with those low limits.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by vera_k »

How do we get cheap nuke electricity to mango man in a hurry?
We don't. Nuke electricity is 15 years away. No one except DAE (with 700MW PHWR) seems to know how to build plants faster, and on time.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Saurabh_M »

vera_k wrote:
How do we get cheap nuke electricity to mango man in a hurry?
We don't. Nuke electricity is 15 years away. No one except DAE (with 700MW PHWR) seems to know how to build plants faster, and on time.
8 years away . . . Jaitapur's first plant is expected to go critical in 2018. Should solve problems for lots of Mango men in Maharashtra
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Saurabh,

Not if the Inidia Jholawalla brigade has any thing to do with it.
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