China Military Watch

Inder Sharma · Post by **Inder Sharma** » 31 Dec 2010 12:13

Kanson wrote:
China's defence minister has put aside diplomatic tact and said the country's military will prepare itself for "military conflict in every strategic direction" in the next five years.

It seems, actions and statements of China brought back memories of the rise of Nazi Germany and WWII.

Just as Obama went for appeasement in the form G2, Anglo-France alliance went for appeasement with Nazi Germany. Just as there is economic depression, there was economic depression, which forced the allies for the appeasement. Just as Chinese leaders are praised, fascist leaders were praised.

Just like Chinese, Hilter took that as the arrival of German Aryans.

If China become Nazi Germany in toto, it is the question of when, wondering who will be Poland, France, Britain and Russia. Of course we can safely guess who will be Austria and without batting an eyelid we can say Taiwan will be Czechoslovakia. In this scheme of things Iran will be Italy.

Taking that analogy further, the buffer-state of Poland (Tibet) has already been swallowed. The Han-Reich, in its arrogance, is now trying to overwhelm the only power that stands between them and their lebensraum (global ascendency). Will this power size-up?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 31 Dec 2010 13:06

Air Power Australia

What China's New J-20 Stealth Fighter Means for the F-35 JSF and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet

Assessing the Impact of Exponential Growth Laws on Future Combat Aircraft Design

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 31 Dec 2010 13:33

^^^

Unsurprisingly the conclusion is to get more Raptors.

Admins,

Can you take a decision that Dr Kopp is haram, like the stratagy page. The guy is concluding that the F 35 will be toast. When very little is known about the performance and capabilities of the the PAK FA and the J 20. One is in its priliminary flight trials and the other is still on the ground.

Yet preposterously concludes that the Russian and the PRC designs will mop the floor with the F 35.

I fact taken on the whole it is little better then my declaring the PRC will destroy the Indian or US military in 15 minutes flat. Without suffring any damage to itself.

If is said any of the above on the forum. I will be laughed out of the forum for being a loony. Yet Dr Kopp is halal.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 31 Dec 2010 14:06

Kanson wrote:DF-21 Delta: Some Early Thoughts

For instance, China can most likely build mid-infrared detectors for military space applications. These might be used for their missile defense interceptor, even though they are barely applicable for anti-satellite weapons. Could they be used for an anti-ship application? Possibly. They could certainly see through most clouds so cloud cover is not an issue. But it would take more thought than I have given it to know that it could discriminate between a ship and the ocean.

er could someone please educate me on how a IR detector could detect a ship on the ocean while looking through the skin of a ballistic missile that is glowing hot at several hundred degrees

i mean the idea of a ballistic missile is cool but will it really be that cool travelling from 30Km up to sea level in 13 seconds?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 31 Dec 2010 14:22

A bit difficult to decipher but..
http://www.comhaha.com/blog/530037-anal ... -in-china/

NS for guidance only and no ballistic missiles with terminal guidance capabilities of ballistic missiles with terminal guidance capability obvious difference in accuracy. Fig small figure shows the warhead re-entry will occur in a high temperature, which is the difficulty terminal guidance technology.
The so-called "ship" in engineering terms that is slow to combat the activities of target surface. Using the DF-21 medium-range ballistic missiles for anti-ship operations such key technical difficulty is how to achieve "end of the guidance." Because the trajectory of ballistic missiles generally use a large arc, the angle between ballistic and sea anti-ship cruise missiles than the average much larger, much more severe guidance radar sea clutter. Moreover, the medium-range ballistic missile re-entry, the maximum speed of up to 12 times the speed of sound, warheads stagnation temperature is very high, very little heat wave-transparent materials can meet this requirement, so that the radar antenna or infrared imaging seeker Rectifier cover material is also facing a very high demands.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 31 Dec 2010 16:00

shiv wrote:
Kanson wrote:DF-21 Delta: Some Early Thoughts

For instance, China can most likely build mid-infrared detectors for military space applications. These might be used for their missile defense interceptor, even though they are barely applicable for anti-satellite weapons. Could they be used for an anti-ship application? Possibly. They could certainly see through most clouds so cloud cover is not an issue. But it would take more thought than I have given it to know that it could discriminate between a ship and the ocean.
er could someone please educate me on how a IR detector could detect a ship on the ocean while looking through the skin of a ballistic missile that is glowing hot at several hundred degrees

i mean the idea of a ballistic missile is cool but will it really be that cool travelling from 30Km up to sea level in 13 seconds?

If the warhead shuts down its IR sensor as it passes 50 km altitude, it is about 22 seconds before impact. It is too much to hope that the carrier can change its direction or even its speed in those few remaining seconds so the we can expect; the George H. W. Bush displaces 100,000 tons! That means the warhead can “safely” extrapolate the position the carrier will be 22 seconds after its tracker shuts down. During those 22 seconds, the Bush could travel 370 meters, which is about the length of the Bush (333 meters) but five times the beam of the Bush (77 meters). How likely a hit will be will depend on two things: how accurately the tracking system can determine the position and velocity and how finely it can tune its acceleration to match the desired trajectory.

He just taking such off the cuff value to explain how it works. The shutdown can happen even at 100 km. Its depends upon the speed of BM, processing power, is the narrow aperture opening time and the cooling potential of the IR sensor. No it wont be cool travelling bellow 30 km.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 31 Dec 2010 16:29

Shiv:
One of the things that non technical reader morons (such as most of you imbeciles on this board) do not understand is the importance of shapes and appearances. Despite being bald and having a paunch I put on a bikini at the beach yesterday and was mobbed by young men who saw my bikini an mistook me for a beautiful model.

Lemme guess: Tails from the Paunchatantra...or The Bald and The Beautiful

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2010 17:19

PRCs gloves coming off statement indicates it is transitioning from its cautious hiding strengths/maskirovka stage to a more direct and open intimidation model (that US uses) like publishing indepth pics and details of its products and plans (j20 being one example). this indicates the leadership is more confident on economic, social and military heads and the road is open to strong arm people and impose its pov on disputes.

Don · Post by **Don** » 31 Dec 2010 17:23

A European Union arms embargo clamped on China in 1989 following the Tiananmen crackdown could be lifted in early 2011, Brussels sources told Thursday's edition of France's Le Figaro daily.

The lifting of the embargo on all lethal weapons "could happen very quickly," a source close to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton told the paper.

An EU diplomat in Brussels refused to confirm the claim, but acknowledged that Ashton recommended as much in a report presented at a December 16-17 summit to the bloc's 27 national leaders.

Ashton's report described the embargo as "a major impediment" to Europe-China security and foreign policy cooperation.

"The EU should assess its practical implication and design a way forward," it concluded.

Lifting the embargo would nevertheless require unanimity across EU member states.

Spain recently tried to persuade opponents to lift the embargo, and the issue can be expected to come up again in mid-January when EU foreign ministers' hold informal talks in Hungary.

"We will look into this," said the diplomat.

The issue has re-emerged following talks between China and the EU in Beijing focused on economic and trade cooperation, at which China indicated it would support heavily indebted eurozone economies struggling to raise finance on open markets at affordable interest rates.

An EU official insisted there was "nothing of an exchange or negotiation whatsoever" involving the arms embargo, stressing that there "nothing given in exchange for that support."

Chinese ambassador Song Zhe recently said "it doesn't make any sense to maintain the embargo," arguing that "we will develop our own arms even faster" and claiming that arms companies in Europe "are losing out."

Europe was divided on the issue when it was discussed at a meeting of foreign ministers in September, with some mooting the idea of a conditional lifting of the embargo.

Conditions included improved ties with Taiwan, an amnesty for arrests linked to the Tiananmen crackdown, and a calendar for the ratification of the convention on civil and political rights.

The Figaro said that the Netherlands, Britain and, to a lesser extent, Germany, had each lowered their opposition to lifting the embargo.

But another diplomatic source said Britain in particular remained set against alongside the US and Japan.

Chinese troops and tanks ended weeks of pro-democracy protests in Beijing central Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989, killing hundreds if not thousands of demonstrators.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20101230/tw ... 7dd21.html

ashokpachori · Post by **ashokpachori** » 31 Dec 2010 17:30

India Digs In Its Heels as China Flexes Its Muscles

India aspires to membership on the United Nations Security Council, and China is now the only permanent member nation that has not explicitly endorsed such a move. But what has rattled Indian leaders even more is their contention that China is being deliberately provocative in Kashmir as it grows closer to Pakistan, China’s longtime ally and India’s nemesis. China has also been expanding its diplomatic and economic influence around South Asia, stepping up its involvement in the affairs of Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/world ... india.html

negi · Post by **negi** » 31 Dec 2010 17:52

Afaik the Chinese get the AL-31 F and FN series engines for Su-27s,J-11 and J0-10 from the Salut plant (not Saturn) (just like their flankers come from KNAAPO and ours from Irktusk), the latest engine that Salut has to offer is AL-31F M1 (upgraded AL-31F) and I guess Cheena J-20 is powered by this version (as nozzles indicate they do not have TVC). NPO Saturn on the other hand uses AL-31FP as the baseline for all it's 4++ and above generation engines.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 31 Dec 2010 17:53

Re Don's post: (and not addressed to Don)

so if the chinese can develop their own arms faster as per their official, why will europe lose out?

interestingly, the ones with least skin in the game and the most to benefit from chinese bail outs are making the most noise re lifting embargo. one would hope that its a signal to unkil to bail them out so they dont need to go to Dragonbhai

also an indication perhaps that too much dhoti-shivering is not warranted at this stage

iparvas · Post by **iparvas** » 31 Dec 2010 19:21

the chinese now have the J20 ... while the AMCA is still on paper !!!

vic · Post by **vic** » 31 Dec 2010 19:28

iparvas wrote:the chinese now have the J20 ... while the AMCA is still on paper !!!

Actually it is not even on paper. Project defination stage has been funded for a massive amount of Rs 100 crore for next 18 months. I never knew buying brouchures to piece together specifications can be so costly. Not to forget the Common wealth Games opening balloon was bought for a small amount of Rs. 70 crores. After making a balloon is more important. Similary RTA has also got a massive amount of Rs 50 crores

Don · Post by **Don** » 31 Dec 2010 19:29

A new version of T-99 ?

D Roy · Post by **D Roy** » 31 Dec 2010 19:32

iparvas wrote:
the chinese now have the J20 ... while the AMCA is still on paper !!!

yes and your chicom generals have done the "wise thing" of revealing it at a point in time when India can still incorporate changes into its future programs .....
In any case the AMCA will most certainly be powered by indigenous turbofans, will have a better T:W ratio than your flatnose ( flatpack + raptor), will have a better AESA and most importantly a better pilot!

tell your masters we are coming. we are coming.

We will bring it.

iparvas · Post by **iparvas** » 31 Dec 2010 20:16

The IAF cheif mentioned earlier this year that 50% of our IAF fighters are obsolete.... with rapidly depleting fighter strength ... the Gov. of India has been toooo slow to ink the MMRCA deal ... and to add more trouble the Chinese are rapidly making strides ... though we produce talented engineers every year it is really disappointing to see that our local HAL and allied companies do not seem to have the cutting edge to even make spares for the IAF and upgrade the fighters ... they have to be upgraded by the foreign country and pay them Billions $$$ ... why are we not capable of doing it ourselves ... ??? that is the question ... why cannot we just "copy - paste" Rafale and induct some changes to make it 5th gen ?? I understand that HAL is having problems but there should be a dedicated industrial complex other than HAL where they can experiment with newer aircraft designs and propulsion systems ... something the Americans do at Area 51 ...

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 31 Dec 2010 20:29

Kanson, Thanks for posting the DF21D post from arms control. Read the discussions there. Very little in terms of a combination of Sat based ISAR+IR being used to guide the ASBM.

Another question I have is, what do we know on the tests conducted. We should link up sites that track, Chinese testing activities - maybe first post of the thread, that are reasonably credible. Reading sino defense reads like Chinese are walking on Mars already.

One more question, Why is PRC the only one trying for something like this? I mean, we do not hear of an Agni being used as an ASBM? Are there specific reasons, they have chosen this route as opposed to medium/long range cruise missiles?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2010 20:32

looking at it from PLAAF/PLANAF point of view - none of their J8, J7 or JH7 are capable of surviving against a competent foe. their Su27s are old and bear little modern avionics unlike todays Su35bm. they have J-10a with stuff whose capabilities are unknown to the outside world but pumped by fanboys. the Su30mkk is inferior in many respects to the MKM and MKI.

and they need a considerable AF to take on India while keeping some cover in the rear to deal with taiwan & japan. IAF will shred most of their fleet in a defensive war that much is known.

so they really need stuff like J-20 , better avionics & weapons on su27 and su30 fleet, J-10b to present a 'superpower' kind of threat posture of striking hard and deep into India to teach us a lesson. a 1:1 exchange ratio or a longish attritional air war will surely not be acceptable for H&D and psyops purposes - a short sharp slapping of the yindu is desireable and that needs a LOT more and better than what they have got . meantime the yindu is also not asleep but wide awake and working to build up Tejas, mrca, more mki, upg of mig29/m2k, new bunches of jaguars, aew, akashs, spyders and pakfa to keep the goalposts fluid and moving...

Tanveer · Post by **Tanveer** » 31 Dec 2010 20:33

WHATTT... AMCA is going to have an Indian engine?!?!? God save AMCA.
I would have preferred AMCA to have well proven engine (preferably FGFA's).
One has to be smart enough to know his weakness... here our inability to design and manufacture engine for 5G jet. Forget 5G jet jet for LCA is not ready yet.
I would also prefer to have well proven radar off the shelf.
I would also like AMCA to be optimized for attack.

Tanveer

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 31 Dec 2010 20:37

iparvas wrote:the chinese now have the J20 ... while the AMCA is still on paper !!!

It is not as bad as it sounds.

They both should hit the squads a few years apart.

BTW, I doubt this J-20 is the final product. Both a Chinese General and Gates have stated 2020 is about the year when it will join the forces.

On the flip side the AMCA is beyond what we know too.

well proven engine (preferably FGFA's)

The current PAK-FA engine is acceptable (to most) BUT it is not an engine that is supposed to the final product. That final product engine will take another 10 years!!!!! It is a paper engine today. (And, who knows, that engine in ten years may find its way in some form in the J-20.)

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2010 20:39

OT but even if a desi engine is 85% as good as a bideshi engine (thrust, MTBO) but reliable its better to go the desi route. once a few AMCA fly with that, the GE and Saturn CEOs will be camping in the cold outside HAL offering to sell building blocks and technology for a low price to cover the rest 15%. but first we need to show the 85%.
once they know they cannot sell a complete engine and have us locked in, they will BEG to sell us parts and technology and make some money. but before that they will try all efforts to sabotage domestic engine projects including poaching key people.

its time to set aside $2b for kaveri, throw in everyone incl HAL into the effort and productionize the first version, followed by the second - its as vital to our security as A2P or Arihant. to keep people - if necessary find the google/msft salary and double that for key performers. screw the rules, hive off a co like brahmos to separate payscale from any govt restrictions.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 31 Dec 2010 21:05

Yes.. reorg re-enforce GTRE to get Kaveri delivered. Scrap the Snecma deal, and work on indigenous uprated upthrusted version of Kaver Mk2 for MRCA and LCA-Mk2 GE replacements. GTRE must be reorganized to deliver and have LRDE manage the MMR delivery.

For AMCA, we should have everything indigenous.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 31 Dec 2010 21:28

A military related blog on China

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 31 Dec 2010 21:34

Singha wrote: IAF will shred most of their fleet in a defensive war that much is known...so the really need stuff like J20..

I am still hazy about what a J20-type plane can do that is so unbalancing. I get what the F117 did in Iraq etc but if the Iraqis had Prithvis, Agnis and Brahmos backed by a nuclear deterrent, would Desert Storm have taken place? Let's assume that a J20 sneaks into India and takes out a key installation. Would India not retaliate with missiles and do the same or worse? This is why I believe this J20 peep show is aimed at the chinese themselves. The only effect it has on India is to light another fire under our babus to speed up our antidotes and that is a positive.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 31 Dec 2010 21:44

Tanveer wrote:WHATTT... AMCA is going to have an Indian engine?!?!? God save AMCA.
I would have preferred AMCA to have well proven engine (preferably FGFA's).
One has to be smart enough to know his weakness... here our inability to design and manufacture engine for 5G jet. Forget 5G jet jet for LCA is not ready yet.
I would also prefer to have well proven radar off the shelf.
I would also like AMCA to be optimized for attack.

Tanveer

>> FGFA engine is wrong thrust class for AMCA.
>> we do not need 5gen engine for AMCA, at least for the first decade of its service life. kaveri-2 should do pretty well. if you go by what is not ready yet we shouldn't even start on "any" future project.
>> why ? LRDE should be ready with its AESA by then.
>> probably would be.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 31 Dec 2010 21:46

iparvas wrote:The IAF cheif mentioned earlier this year that 50% of our IAF fighters are obsolete.... with rapidly depleting fighter strength ... the Gov. of India has been toooo slow to ink the MMRCA deal ... and to add more trouble the Chinese are rapidly making strides ... though we produce talented engineers every year it is really disappointing to see that our local HAL and allied companies do not seem to have the cutting edge to even make spares for the IAF and upgrade the fighters ... they have to be upgraded by the foreign country and pay them Billions $$$ ... why are we not capable of doing it ourselves ... ??? that is the question ... why cannot we just "copy - paste" Rafale and induct some changes to make it 5th gen ?? I understand that HAL is having problems but there should be a dedicated industrial complex other than HAL where they can experiment with newer aircraft designs and propulsion systems ... something the Americans do at Area 51 ...

kindly head to the newbie thread with your questions.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 31 Dec 2010 21:51

iparvas wrote:The IAF cheif mentioned earlier this year that 50% of our IAF fighters are obsolete.... with rapidly depleting fighter strength ... the Gov. of India has been toooo slow to ink the MMRCA deal ... and to add more trouble the Chinese are rapidly making strides ... though we produce talented engineers every year it is really disappointing to see that our local HAL and allied companies do not seem to have the cutting edge to even make spares for the IAF and upgrade the fighters ... they have to be upgraded by the foreign country and pay them Billions $$$ ... why are we not capable of doing it ourselves ... ??? that is the question ... why cannot we just "copy - paste" Rafale and induct some changes to make it 5th gen ?? I understand that HAL is having problems but there should be a dedicated industrial complex other than HAL where they can experiment with newer aircraft designs and propulsion systems ... something the Americans do at Area 51 ...

Boss you are a true patriot. True patriots must dhoti-shiver and lament. But true patriots must do that in the right thread. This is the China military watch thread. Dhanyavaad.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 31 Dec 2010 21:53

Victor wrote: I am still hazy about what a J20-type plane can do that is so unbalancing.

It can make the short dark rice eaters shiver in their dhotis about Indian incompetence, incapacity and inability?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 31 Dec 2010 21:54

Tanveer wrote:WHATTT... AMCA is going to have an Indian engine?!?!? God save AMCA.
I would have preferred AMCA to have well proven engine (preferably FGFA's).
One has to be smart enough to know his weakness... here our inability to design and manufacture engine for 5G jet. Forget 5G jet jet for LCA is not ready yet.
I would also prefer to have well proven radar off the shelf.
I would also like AMCA to be optimized for attack.

Tanveer

Brilliant. Brillaint.

Another true patriot. Please take this to another thread.

D Roy · Post by **D Roy** » 31 Dec 2010 22:14

and just for the record,

AMCA wind tunnel models have been tested and *displayed*. In the aerospace industry wind tunnel tests indicate both seriousness as well as method in a project. I won;'t say more.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 31 Dec 2010 22:23

Posting this one in full.
Top stories of 2010 for PLAN

Top stories of 2010 for PLAN

After a couple of relatively quiet years for PLAN, 2010 was the return of naval shipbuilding boom that was prevalent in the middle part of this decade. There were many stories from this past year, but I decided to pick 10 stories to look over.

1) Finally seeing real and tangible progress in the carrier program - We have seen some movements toward the completion of Varyag in the recent year and news about the start of naval aviation school. This year, we saw official acknowledgment of China's carrier program in a book by the State Oceanic Administration, which marks the first such acknowledgment by the Chinese government. We also saw real changes in Varyag throughout the year. We saw a lot of work on the island, including the installation of some important sensors. We saw close-in defense systems like HQ-10, Type 730 gun and Multi-rocket launchers installed. It's hard to think China will put this much sensor and weaponry on Varyag unless they have more plans for it beyond just a training ship. And finally, we saw smoke coming out of the furnace and the auxiliary propulsion unit very recently. I would really not be surprised if this thing gets starts conducting sea trials sometimes next year. On top of that, we are also seeing the first 2 Ka-31s delivered to PLAN from Russia. These are 2 of the 9 early warning helicopters on order to be used on Varyag and possibly other aircraft carriers. We've also seen the Z-8 AEW project under way with the first prototype going through sea tests. I believe a fixed wing AEW project based on the Y-7 airframe is also in development. This does raise the question of what roles do each of these early warning platforms play in the future of PLAN. Will they be used on the Type 071 platform at some point? Will they be used on a future helo carrier platform? Or will they only be used on aircraft carriers.

2) Seeing the introduction of many systems that could be used in the ASBM program - Since we first reported on this program in 2009, ASBM has been mentioned prominently by every article talking about the rise of Chinese threat to US navy in East Asian waters. In many ways, we are seeing many new systems coming out that would be very useful to the ASBM program. In the Zhuhai air show, Chinese weapon manufacturers were openly showing a video of a new type of indigenously developed UAV spotting US carrier group with the satellites' assistance and then feeding the information to shore based anti-ship missiles to attack those targets. I'm not sure how much of this capability has been realized, but it was an unusually open and suggestive display of intention. We saw 5 launches of Beidou Navigation satellites this year, 1 launch of a new data relay satellites and many launches of EO satellites in the Yaogan series, which could all be used to help find targets, relay targeting info and help increase accuracy of missiles. On top of that, the many new recon UAVs and UCAVs shown this year in the Zhuhai air show can all help in identifying targets originally picked up by OTH radars.

3) The restart of 052C production - When 052C class first came out in 2003, it was revolutionary by PLAN standard. These were the first ships to have long ranged vertical launched air defense system. They were the first ships to have modern AESA multi-functional radar and other modern ESM/ECM sensors. And most imortantly, they were the first to have modern combat system. In fact, many China threat analysts dubbed this the Chinese Aegis system. After these ships were launched, they had so many issues to sort out that it took another 7 years before the next ship in this series came out. I'm not sure if this is an indication that China's first attempt at a modern area defense combat system set the bar too high (it normally only takes 3 years or less for other new PLAN ships to work out issues with new capabilities) or that China's previous combat system level was too low. Either way, we have yet to notice any real changes to the new 052C units other than reportedly using domestic production of GT-25000 gas turbines. Many people have expected to see larger improvements like from 052B to 052C. In many ways, I think this is a good sign indicating that they took a lot of time sorting out problems with the new air defense system and really learning lessons from them. It is reported that this 4 052Cs will be produced in this batch. This would mark the start of the mass production of modern DDGs for PLAN to replace the very old and outdated Luda DDGs.

4) Seeing the start of Type 071 mass production after achieving full operational capability - This has been really big year for the 071 class. While 998, the lead ship, has been in service for 3 years now, it spent the first 2 years without the LCAC-like air cushioned hovercraft that are designed for it. This April, the first Chinese LCAC finished all of its sea trials and joined service with 998. In the coming month, we would see 998 and its "LCAC" being deployed to Gulf of Aden. In that deployment, we would see pictures of LCAC and fast patrol boat coming in and out of the well deck. We saw pictures of three helicopters (2 Z8s + 1 Z-9C) on its helipad at the same time about to takeoff and land. These may be quite routine for USMC, but are all first time achievements for PLAN. We also confirmed that the dimensions of Type 071 are about the same as the San Antonio class. As 998 was doing patrols in Aden, the second unit of Type 071 was quietly being assembled in HuDong shipyard. By the end of the year, the second unit was also launched. I found it really amazing the speed at which they assembled the blocks and launched this ship. They seemed to have made some minor changes from the lead ship for the mass production phase of this class. It appears that PLAN is quite satisfied with Type 071 and is starting a large production run. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how PLA intends to use this class of ships in the future.

5) Continued presence of PLAN around the world and increased cooperation in Gulf of Aden - I don't spend a lot of time talking about PLAN training and deployments, but I do think this year also represented a surge in PLAN cooperation with other navies. For the past year, China has continued sending its latest warships to the Gulf of Aden. We see most of the 054 and 054A class ships being tested out there. They are also having more cooperation with Western navies to help with patrols in that area. According to a Jamestown article, PLAN is also setting up several supply depots along the way to help maintain its patrols. Previously, they had only been protecting Chinese commercial ships. And after deployments to Aden, these ships normally make port calls to different countries on their way back to China. The only ship of the Type 920 hospital ship class, 866, also made a trip to different countries in Africa and Asia as part of PLAN's show of soft power. On top of anti-piracy related activities, we've also seen more naval exercises in the past year with countries like Australia and Thailand.

6) The appearance of the new conventional submarine in Wuhan shipyard - Earlier this year, we saw the launching of a mysterious new class of conventional submarine in Wuchang shipyard. As we've discussed in this blog, this submarine is significantly changed from the Yuan class submarine. It appears to be heavily influenced by the Lada class, and is far more stealthy than the other PLAN submarines like Yuan, Song and Kilo class. From side-by-side shots with a Yuan submarine, we can determine this submarine to be one of the largest submarine classes in the world (comparable to Soryu class). If we go by past PLAN submarine classes, this boat (deemed Type 039B class by some) will probably take 3 years to sort out all of the problems and then start mass production. With the launching of this class, I think it is quite clear that PLAN no longer intends to import submarines from Russia. With the continued mass production of Yuan submarines in Wuchang and JiangNan shipyard, we should see see the complete phasing out of Romeo class and early Ming class submarine in the next 5 years.

7) Massive expansion of the fleet of the maritime agencies - I've written a couple blog entries this year about the maritime agencies this year, because they are really becoming influential in China's maritime dispute with neighboring countries. In the past year, we've seen China having continued disputes with Japan and ASEAN countries. As a result of these disputes, China Maritime Surveillance (CMS), Fishery law enforcement (FLEC) and Maritime safety agency (MSA) have really been getting funding to add new cutters to their fleet. I've recently reported that the largest ever MSA cutter is about to start construction in Wuchang shipyard. FLEC has also been getting some new cutters in the past year. None of these agencies have been expanding as fast as CMS. Just over this year and the start of next year alone, CMS is about to receive 4 new cutters of 1300 ton class from HP shipyard, 2 new cutters of 1700 ton class and 1 new cutter of 3500-4000 ton class from WuChang shipyard. The regional offices of CMS are also getting many 600 ton ships operate. All of this still pales in comparison to the ambitious expansion plan for CMS. It is planning to built over 30 cutters in the next 5 years and also get some new aerial assets. To be fair, I must point out that these are still civilian ships. Their designed speed tops out at around 20 knots and are not equipped with high calibre guns as on naval ships. It will be interesting to see how these agencies influence Chinese maritime policies in the coming years, because they are clearly becoming extremely influential.

Continued production of 054A class past original estimation - At one point, I was convinced that the 054A production run would end at 10 ships due to the number of diesel engine kits supplied by Pielstick. It appears that China has either gotten a much larger local assembly contract or have completely indigenized its production, because we've seen recently that an 11th 054A is in advanced stage of construction at HuangPu shipyard. I think that the 054A class has really proven itself to be perfect for the patrols to Gulf of Aden. They have had to send the same 054A frigates multiple times to Aden, because PLAN do not have enough of them in service. 054A would also be very important in any future PLAN carrier group or expedition group (although they are a little slow). At the current time, HP and HD shipyard can produce 054A at fast rate for very reasonable cost (probably < $200 million each), so PLAN has increased its production run. Over the next 5 years, we will be seeing Jianghu class been replaced by 054A class. This replacement truly indicates the change in PLAN. They are going from an archaic class that is barely capable of patrolling within the first chain of island to a new class that is fairly proficient in ASuW, ASW and AAW operations over blue waters. The mass production of 054A have made destroyer classes like 051B, 052, 052B and Sov obsolete, because it has more modern sensors/combat system and can conduct ASW and AAW at comparable or better level than them.

9) The appearance of the 056 class - I maybe getting ahead of myself, because we have not seen any conclusive photo of 056 yet. I have seen a model of 056 class last month and multiple reports that we will see mass production of this class soon. In many ways, I have been waiting for this class for a long time (that is a class between 022 and 054A). I do think that the increasing number of cutters are taking away some of the responsibilities of this 056 class like patrolling East China Sea and South China Sea. However, it appears that this class of ship will come into service to replace the roles of the old Type 037s and some Jianghu class.

10) New toys for the aviation arm of PLAN - In this past year, we have seen KJ-200 and other Y-8 special missions aircraft join service with PLAN aviation. They are important in any kind of operations near the shore, because they would be able to provide targeting information for ships like Type 022 FACs and aircraft like JH-7A. This is part of PLA's move for greater C4ISR capability. We have also seen the first regiment of J-10A and J-11BS for PLAN establishing this year along with another regiment of JH-7A. The addition of these new aircraft will help provide air cover for ships and striking power in conflicts within the first chain of islands (especially around Taiwan and East China Sea.

As I look back in 2010, it was a very fruitful year for PLAN. Many of its new toys like 052C, Type 071, 054A, Yuan class, Type 056 and the new minehunters have entered mass production or are about to enter mass production. They will replace the outdated class like Luda, Jianghu, Romeo, Type 037s and Type 6610. We've also seen one-off ships like the new submarine tender and the new ELINT ship joining service. These new ships are filled with new weapons, new sensors, new combat systems and are designed to operate much further away from the home base. We have already seen Type 071, 054/A and 052B/C class showing their ability to operate far away from home in their missions to the Gulf of Aden. We have also seen auxiliary ships like the Fuchi class replenishment ship and the Type 920 hospital ship operate far from home and been used to spread good wills to different third world nations. I think this is all part of PLAN's effort to expand its presence around the world. However, when I compare PLAN to Western navies, it is still very new to blue water operations and has a lot to do to catch up. At the same time, some other big name programs like the carrier project, the ASBM project and the conventional submarine program are continuing to make solid progress. These along with the mass produced classes are critical for possible conflicts with US over Taiwan, for maritimes disputes with its neighbours and blue water operations. The emergence of the civilian maritime agencies are also complicating China's maritime disputes. These are all areas that we can look forward to in

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 31 Dec 2010 22:25

I think that wind tunnel model will be revised. IAF asked for more stealth.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 31 Dec 2010 23:18

OK, I am on a wild goose chase now. So if I post something stupid, just bear with me.

Chinese SAM Network
China's other ASAT
Dragon's Fire: The PLA's 2nd Artillery Corps
I really liked this one, lot of hard work, it is a Google Earth link.
Chinese Military Aviation

All of it from this blog.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 01 Jan 2011 00:07

OTH Radar and the ASBM Threat

THE ASBM THREAT

One potential application for China's OTH radar systems is to perform initial targeting for anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs). China has developed an ASBM to counter US Navy aircraft carriers during a time of hostility. While current testing of the AEGIS system in an ABM capacity may limit the effectiveness of such a weapon in the long run, the potential for such an unorthodox method of attack does merit consideration in the minds of naval tacticians.

The DF-21C

China's weapon of choice for the ASBM role is a conventionally-armed variant of the DF-21 (CSS-5) MRBM, possibly armed with terminally-guided submunitions. The DF-21C is an 1,800 to 3,000 kilometer range weapon (depending on the source) launched from a mobile TEL, allowing the system to be field deployed to complicate preemptive targeting. The DF-21C is reported to employ terminal homing to achieve a CEP in the order of 10 meters, a level of accuracy sufficient to target a large surface vessel such as an aircraft carrier. China has been researching MaRV systems to counter foreign ABM endeavors; combining the DF-21C with a terminal-homing MaRV would provide the PLA with a weapon system possessing a reasonable chance of breaking through the AEGIS umbrella and posessing the accuracy needed to finish the job. DF-21 missiles of an unspecified variant were flight tested with decoys in 2002, a development which would further complicate an ABM engagement and lend survivability to the weapon and therefore credibility and seriousness to the threat.

Engaging a Carrier

Where do Chinese OTH systems factor into the engagement scenario for an ASBM system? A 2002 DoD report stated that China was developing OTH-B systems with the desire to employ them against aircraft carriers. The OTH-B system currently fielded certainly has the range to do so, the only problem is one of target recognition needed to place a terminally-guided DF-21C in close proximity within the MaRV's maneuver envelope. The OTH-B system as currently deployed would permit long-range acquisition of naval vessels. Target identification would be provided by Chinese-produced derivatives of Russia's Kornet EO and radar satellites, the first constellation of which is scheduled to be operational in 2009. This effectively solves the issue of OTH-B resolution, allowing the OTH-B to provide early warning while the space-based assets confirm target identification and provide positioning data for ASBM launch, being cued to potential targets by the OTH-B radar system. The advantage of a long-range ASBM system, cued by OTH-B and space-based assets is such that aircraft carriers could potentially be at risk well before their air wings are within range to strike at the Chinese mainland.

Current Chinese OTH-B and OTH-SW developments are clearly an important facet of any future conflict. Congressional officials and the Office of Naval Intelligence have described the ASBM threat in various open sources, and they are taking the threat seriously. As well they should; current developments in the field of ballistic missiles as well as increased surveillance capabilities clearly have the potential to create serious problems for a carrier strike group operating in the Western Pacific theater of operations.

CONCLUSION

Over the horizon radar systems, once a source of long range early warning for Cold War enemies, have evolved to the point that their presence on the battlefield poses a serious threat to friendly forces. While many nations have developed OTH systems for various surveillance purposes, Chinese developments in this and other fields have effectively transformed the OTH from a missile warning system to a missile targeting system.

Gaur · Post by **Gaur** » 01 Jan 2011 01:00

Marten wrote:
indranilroy wrote:I think that wind tunnel model will be revised. IAF asked for more stealth.
OT: Do you have a public access source for that information? afaik, the design has been frozen.

No. The design has not been frozen. In fact, freezing of design is a big deal and ADA is still in talks with IAF as to what they want from AMCA. All this will go on for another year. You can read all this at Shiv Aroor's blog.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 01 Jan 2011 01:48

Marten wrote:
indranilroy wrote:I think that wind tunnel model will be revised. IAF asked for more stealth.
OT: Do you have a public access source for that information? afaik, the design has been frozen.

Livefist in one of its articles had said

There will be dramatic changes yet to the aircraft's intakes (utterly radar friendly, according to the IAF), vertical stabilisers and dorsal section

Actually the intakes on the wind tunnel model and the later CAD drawings look very different.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 01 Jan 2011 02:33

The PLA Air Force Over the Horizon Radar Brigade

A Chinese blogger posted an article in November 2007 that highlighted a PLA Air Force (PLAAF) “Skywave Brigade” (天波旅). The post first appeared on the Wangchao bulletin board website and has been reposted hundreds of times since then. The author asserts that the brigade operates China’s first strategic early warning system in over 20 years, when a brigade operated a missile early warning system in the area of Xuanhua, north of Beijing. The missile early warning radar has been dismantled. The author, careful to avoid censors, uses Pinyin abbreviations for locations of the transmitter and receiver and names of the commander and political commissar of the PLAAF radar brigade. He/she also notes a requirement for additional sites in Fujian and presumably other locations along the east coast for measuring the ionosphere.

Taiwan Link research confirms much of the Chinese author’s analysis. A relatively new PLA Air Force radar brigade – the 95980 Unit – operates the OTH radar system. The PLAAF “Skywave Brigade" is situated in the southern edge of Xiangfan [襄樊], Hubei province, or specifically in Yingpan Village in the Xiangcheng District. On Google Earth, a guarded underground facility can be seen to the east of the village. While not confirmed, the mountain complex could house the OTH surveillance and warning system.

The PLAAF radar brigade has at least six subordinate elements (fendui). Two are near Xiangfan: the 52nd Element in the Zaoyang Municipal District and the 53rd in Nanzhang County. The blog poster notes that the OTH transmitter is in “ZY” and receiver is in “NZ.” The OTH receiver array that Sean O’Connor discovered on Google Earth indeed is in Nanzhang county. The coastal sites subordinate to the OTH brigade are:

-- 61st Element based near Xitangqiao Village [西塘桥镇];

-- 64th Element located near Fuqing [福清],

-- 66th Element near Jinjiang [晋江], Fujian province Sanshan Village [三山镇]; and

-- 67th Element near Wenlin City Shitang Village [石塘镇].

Most likely subordinate to the Guangzhou Military Region Air Force (GMRAF), the radar brigade's priority probably is air activity. Maritime tracks that the system generates could be filtered off to PLA Navy watch centers for tagging and correlation. More analysis would have to be done to figure out the command and control and service coordination arrangements.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 01 Jan 2011 02:40

J-20 size analysis:

According to the person who did this analysis, it's between 19.5 and 19.6 meters long.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 01 Jan 2011 03:05

Kanson wrote: If the warhead shuts down its IR sensor as it passes 50 km altitude, it is about 22 seconds before impact. It is too much to hope that the carrier can change its direction or even its speed in those few remaining seconds so the we can expect; the George H. W. Bush displaces 100,000 tons! That means the warhead can “safely” extrapolate the position the carrier will be 22 seconds after its tracker shuts down. During those 22 seconds, the Bush could travel 370 meters, which is about the length of the Bush (333 meters) but five times the beam of the Bush (77 meters). How likely a hit will be will depend on two things: how accurately the tracking system can determine the position and velocity and how finely it can tune its acceleration to match the desired trajectory.

He just taking such off the cuff value to explain how it works. The shutdown can happen even at 100 km. Its depends upon the speed of BM, processing power, is the narrow aperture opening time and the cooling potential of the IR sensor. No it wont be cool travelling bellow 30 km.[/quote]

You should look up some videos of U.S. carriers maneuvering, they can move a LOT in 22 seconds.