China Military Watch

heech · Post by **heech** » 07 Jan 2011 03:39

indranilroy wrote: Exactly my point. It is as simple as that. China is trying to grow its military might as its economy grows. Nothing wrong with it. Any country in its place would.

But you are trying to put a halo around it, which is not right.

I'm not even going to debate this with you, because I have no idea what you're responding to, or what your actual point is.

Now if your submarine comes up shadowing an aircraft career nowhere near your sees. You shoot down satellites. You build missiles against an aircraft carrier. You directly commit espionage. Are you not marking out your opponent. Will your opponent say, "Oh no, they are peace loving commies!"? Or do you want me to believe that China is so naive that it doesn't understand the signals it is sending out?

When Russia/USA do it (and both nations are certainly moving forward with their own military developments), it's maintaining parity... and when China does the same, it's something else? I'm not trying to put a "halo" on what China does, nor am I suggesting it's actions are different from the other world powers.

My statement is simple, but I'll rephrase it with the term you used: the exact combat capability of these fighters may be interesting (to the fans and professionals in the field)... but the real strategic importance is the fact that China has now (or will very shortly) reached "parity" in any regional conflict.

heech · Post by **heech** » 07 Jan 2011 03:41

indranilroy wrote:It is most probably doctored. I don't believe that the Chinese would jeopardize such a prestigious project on an unproven engine.

But you are free to believe whatever you want to.

I think I should state the same to you: you are free to "believe" whatever you want to.

On the other hand, there are multiple images + videos flooding out of Chengdu... and the nozzle difference is obvious. And we're probably going to have high-resolution video + images in less than 24 hours after this thing goes public.

EDIT: By the way, I should mention Pinkov over at Kanwa (apparently is in Chengdu) and states firmly that these J-20s are equipped with a domestic engine. I should also add that many, many Chinese share your belief that it "has" to be the AL-31F on these units. Let's just say it's a mystery.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 07 Jan 2011 03:43

Could you please show me a video with the WS-10 engine!

I mean look at all the original pics which came out. None of them had a silvery nozzle. All of a sudden some have started changing colours. So the one with the AL-31 is undergoing taxi trials with the bay door open. But the one with the WS-10 has been around for an year secretly. Pray, tell me the reason for strapping the the Al-31 on if the "WS-10-variant" is ready?

I mean what are you asking me to believe?

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 07 Jan 2011 03:50

I mean look at this picture

The nozzle is wide open and the plane and the photographer is behind the plane and yet, the inside is pitch black! You can easy everything about the plane and even the colour of the nozzle, but not the flames inside!

heech · Post by **heech** » 07 Jan 2011 03:57

indranilroy wrote:Could you please show me a video with the WS-10 engine!

I mean look at all the original pics which came out. None of them had a silvery nozzle. All of a sudden some have started changing colours. So the one with the AL-31 is undergoing taxi trials with the bay door open. But the one with the WS-10 has been around for an year secretly. Pray, tell me the reason for strapping the the Al-31 on if the "WS-10-variant" is ready?

I mean what are you asking me to believe?

I'm not asking you to believe anything. If anything, you're asking me to believe that all of these images are doctored. As far as a possible explanation (rumor!!!)... the airframe already flew (secretly) with the AL-31F, because that's the sensible/conservative approach. But now, when they're ready to go public, they want to highlight the WS-10-variant as well.

Anyways, here's a video with what looks like the "shiny" nozzles. It's not under its own power however and obviously resolution for video sucks, so... anyways, we'll know quite a bit more in a few days.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8PwaOrYPcA

heech · Post by **heech** » 07 Jan 2011 04:00

indranilroy wrote:The nozzle is wide open and the plane and the photographer is behind the plane and yet, the inside is pitch black! You can easy everything about the plane and even the colour of the nozzle, but not the flames inside!

I don't see any flames in this video with the (supposed) AL-31 version, either, and the angle is very similar:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUI-eyI9MZU

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 07 Jan 2011 04:19

indranilroy wrote:I mean look at this picture
The nozzle is wide open and the plane and the photographer is behind the plane and yet, the inside is pitch black! You can easy everything about the plane and even the colour of the nozzle, but not the flames inside!

It is a toy plane with a noise generating equipment!

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 07 Jan 2011 04:35

heech wrote: I'm not asking you to believe anything. If anything, you're asking me to believe that all of these images are doctored. As far as a possible explanation (rumor!!!)... the airframe already flew (secretly) with the AL-31F, because that's the sensible/conservative approach. But now, when they're ready to go public, they want to highlight the WS-10-variant as well.

Anyways, here's a video with what looks like the "shiny" nozzles. It's not under its own power however and obviously resolution for video sucks, so... anyways, we'll know quite a bit more in a few days.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8PwaOrYPcA

The one with the AL-31F was shown to be undergoing taxi-trials, right?!! so which one has been flying for an year?!

And aircraft enthusiasts had no clue for one year. Suddenly, an elf came and whispered in their ears, look the plane is going to do taxi trials again for you. Go perch up near the runway or something. Suddenly the enthusiasts and citizens of Chengdu became aviation lovers and flocked to the airport. Having seen that the people had come, the officials rolled out the beauty and everybody lived happily ever after.

But in between the chief of Avic, Lin Zuoming, said in Apr 2009, that WS-10 was the "chronic illness" of the Chinese aviation industry will take a few years to mature as its quality far short of the mark. Meanwhile PLAAF would rather have finished J-11s on the tarmac than with WS-10s.

But a brand new prestigious prototype is going to be flown with one.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 07 Jan 2011 04:47

And oh I don't like this pic

.
Could you please close the canopy, paint the engine-nozzles silver and park it in a market place. and oh, I don't like clarity, how about fudging it a bit.

Ah! Super! There you go.

Ah come here guys I will show you another magic. Here's a plane. Mark the runway exit/entry marker saying B.

.

Now once the plane goes past the marker, it will change the colour of its nozzle. Don't believe it. See!!!

And I have this fetish about one nozzle being open and the other is shut. I will replicate it everywhere.

Also, I am a nature lover so all the pictures I want to see should have some form of vegetation between me and the plane. Gives it a "natural" look.

P.S. Can somebody please teach me to resize the images.

Craig Alpert · Post by **Craig Alpert** » 07 Jan 2011 05:28

Acharya wrote: It is a toy plane with a noise generating equipment!

man you gotta put a warning sign next to this one.. I busted my rear end reading/laughing @ this one

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 07 Jan 2011 05:34

That was enlightening indranilroy-saar.... kudos

So they replaced the engine very stealthily when the plane passed behind a blade of grass? Man, this is 10th gen Djinn tech....

News flash, panda-lurks: the minute you guys a burst a bum, you guys were safe from a war with khan, except if you try to invade mainland US. Even Kims next door know that. So J20 is not going to matter for khan.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Jan 2011 05:34

prithvi wrote:
too much of rhetoric and crude sarcasm for nothing

Brilliant. So you withdraw that foolish "as shown on CNN" comment or do you stand by that as something that goes beyond crude rhetoric? Sir.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 07 Jan 2011 05:58

hnair wrote: That was enlightening indranilroy-saar.... kudos

So they replaced the engine very stealthily when the plane passed behind a blade of grass? Man, this is 10th gen Djinn tech....

News flash, panda-lurks: the minute you guys a burst a bum, you guys were safe from a war with khan, except if you try to invade mainland US. Even Kims next door know that. So J20 is not going to matter for khan.

Umm, this might be a stupid question, but has anyone considered the possibility that there might be two prototypes existing?

I mean, is there any proof that those images were part of the same event?

Since I am not aware of the exact nature or origin of these pics, I am open to correction if somebody has them...

-Vivek

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Jan 2011 06:07

vivek_ahuja wrote:
Consider the following example as my attempt to answer your question:

Let's say that a Su-30MKI is attempting to intercept the J-20 head on. If the enemy had been a SU-30MKK, let us assume the detection range on the radar was 100Km. Now, with the J-20 etc and the stealth factor, your detection range is only 20 Km. So earlier, where you might have taken a shot at 50 Km, you are now forced to do so at less than 20Km. What happens in between? If the J-20 has even the same radar as the MKI, it would have detected the latter at 100Km and would have taken a shot at 50Km, without the Indian pilot having a clue as to what just happened. Now, if on the other hand, instead of the MKI, we have, let's say, the AMCA, then even the J-20 with its super duper stealth would only detect it at say 20Km (apples to apples). In this case, the Indian pilot has been allowed to close the distance between him and the J-20 without dying using his own stealth features. After that, at 20Km, when both aircraft "see" each other, its down to the knife fight and whoever wins on account of weapons superiority.

The other alternate route would be to increase the power of the radar on the MKI to ensure that even though the J-20 has stealth, you still detect it at the original range of 100Km. But doing so is far more difficult than designing your own aircraft around stealth, IMVHO.

My reply here
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 9#p1006609

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 07 Jan 2011 06:25

Vivek ji.

If I am told that there are two prototypes with the Al-31 engine, I could have taken that. But there is one with the WS-10 is a huge jump.

Generally one doesn't make two prototypes in one go. Prototypes are iterative and get refined as one goes forward. So it is a waste to build two first prototypes. Look at any program around you and you will find the same. Also when one builds prototypes, it is exorbitantly costly and time consuming as there is no production line, no component manufacturer, no tooling. Hence, it takes time to build prototypes, typically close to one year to build one.

To build two prototypes first up is a huge waste as the second prototype could have been a much refined based on the learnings of the first one. This is especially the case for China (or India for that matter) who are making generational leaps trying new things like stealth shaping etc. Secondly, the whole objective of prototyping is to test things as they become available. The first prototype generally validates only the airframe. If you would have waited for the having the tech ready for the second prototype, then your first prototype must have been late.

Hnair sahab, please do away with the "saar" when addressing me. You can have your pick from Indranil, Indra, Nil or Roy

.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 07 Jan 2011 06:29

even hava generator will make noise. possible battery driven stealth!

.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 07 Jan 2011 06:46

They are NOT two prototypes as all the photos are stenciled with the same prototype number "2001" in the nose, indicating the same plane.

BTW, Indranilroy, kudos.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Jan 2011 06:47

Roy,

[img=200x200]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/ ... -20-42.jpg[/img]

should have done the trick, but apparently it does not work here. Perhaps this particular feature is not enabled on this site.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 07 Jan 2011 06:48

indranilroy wrote:Vivek ji.

If I am told that there are two prototypes with the Al-31 engine, I could have taken that. But there is one with the WS-10 is a huge jump

Indranil,

I get that. Its standard SOP for us here as well. But every time I find myself arguing from the logical standpoint, I have to remind myself: these are the Chinese we are talking about.

For all I know, they may have two AL-31 prototypes with one's nozzle painted white to foster confusion outside. The 2001 marking is merely stenciling and paint. How long does it take to change them?

I am just saying: is there any way to verify whether those images showing different nozzle colors are from the same event. If they are, then we know its a photoshop pic. Else, something else might be at play here...

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 07 Jan 2011 06:59

^^^ I think the Chinese researchers have better jobs to do.

They have done wonderfully well to have first flight in 4-5 years. I believe the world over, experts have the highest respects for them. I don't think they have to play around with stencils or paints to earn more respect.

They are no fools. 99.99% of the population can't tell the difference of the nozzle between the WS-10 and the AL-31. The 0.01 percent who can, can see through the paint.

The Chinese scientists, spies are working hard. It is a pity that some buffoons on the outside have to come up ridiculous stories to satisfy there over jingoistic appetite.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Jan 2011 07:06

"saving face"

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Jan 2011 07:07

Regarding the Al-31/WS-10 debate - I think it is well known that the WS-10 has flown.

One of the biggest cause of angst among Indian jingos versus Chingos is China's chutzpah and willingness to take risks and throw money at quick and not-yet-ready fixes. If you look back at reports about the Kaveri - even as far back as the 2005 airshow the engine had been run for hundreds of hours but was variously reported as having achieved the "desired" thrust nd as not having enough thrust for the LCA. It is possible that in another era and in another country that same Kaveri would have been slung on some aircraft and flown - faults and all and declared to have "flown" giving much cause for celebration to jingos whose joys and sorrow are based on different types of symbolism such as "acknowledgement" from other jingos or firangi media.

But right or wrong, this is not the way we Indians do things. When the Kaveri flies - it will be pretty much ready - like the Tejas. But China does not do this. Of course they have manufactured the Tu-16 for ages and certainly have reverse engineered a multi-engine aircrfat decades ago and have had both a platform (and the gumption) to test half-done things. They do have the advantage of secrecy and not having the need to make any failure public. For an air force with several thousand aircraft - next to zilch is known about their accident rate - which must be high given the types they fly.

So the WS-30 has flown and that is not an issue. The issue is that it is not known to be safe and reliable. Its MTBF is variously reported as 20 to 30 hours. Saying this causes lot of anger to Chingos who would derive no greater joy than from hearing an acknowledgement from gora and kaala aadmi that their WS-10 works and is mature. But I have not yet seen anything to support the contention that the WS10 is mature. No shame in that. Engines is tricky business. Lack of acknowledgement that engines is tricky business is what causes ROTFL. Nobody would know that better than the ultra cautious SDREs.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 07 Jan 2011 07:18

Check this two videos posted here covering the same event.

1. http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/TpGpk3r-prI/

2. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUI-eyI9MZU

a. First i'm suprised to see at the end of the footage in both video, camera changes position to show ground/rock beneath and the footage and ground are the same, but, the covered angles in two videos are different. What are the chances ?

b. The glint of slivery thing, is actually reflection from Sun at that angle. You can see the building behind the plane at the same angle where you can see the glint of sliver in the engine nozzle, reflecting the morning Sun at such silvery fashion.

c. We can see the glint of sliver in only one angle, not throughout the video, indicating its only a reflection.

amit · Post by **amit** » 07 Jan 2011 10:05

I have a noobie type question in this Al-31/WS-10 debate. Unless the WS-10 is an exact carbon copy of the AL-31 wouldn't the two engines require different structural dimensions to fit into the J20? If that's the case then wouldn't a structural change require new flight control software and extensive testing of the plane? This is not like taking out memory and putting in another one in a computer.

I remember there was talk a few years ago of what it would take to fit the LCA with the Kaveri (once it was ready). Everyone agreed that there would be major changes in the body and so the entire test regime would have to be redone. Even with the upgrade of the same engine Tejas MK2 dimensions would change, right?

Are our Chingos trying to tell us that in their collective brilliance they will flight test two prototypes with different engines simultaneously?

prithvi · Post by **prithvi** » 07 Jan 2011 10:17

shiv wrote:
prithvi wrote:
too much of rhetoric and crude sarcasm for nothing
Brilliant. So you withdraw that foolish "as shown on CNN" comment or do you stand by that as something that goes beyond crude rhetoric? Sir.

why shd I withdraw..? your world view might be different than me... that's alright...

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Jan 2011 10:45

prithvi wrote:
why shd I withdraw..? your world view might be different than me... that's alright...

You're dead right it is. I have a fundamentally different viewpoint from you on the importance of appearing on CNN, a TV a channel that is unknown to the vast majority of over 400 million TV viewers in India. To me, in India the fact that the Arihant featured on an Indian TV channel is reality, and the story that the J-20 appeared on some obscure foreign TV channel called CNN is hearsay which I know of only because you said it and I have to take your word for it. I cannot for the life of me imagine why it might be so important for the Arihant to appear on CNN.

kit · Post by **kit** » 07 Jan 2011 11:02

As a follow up to my earlier post ., i have to say that even if the chinese does not achieve a stealth near to the JSF.,the large J20 can technically house a much larger radar possibly AESA and carry a larger complement mix of BVRAAMS and extended range AAM and air to ground munitions.Now that is something a sukhoi does and well too because of its world class avionics suite.Now the J20 design is there., improvements in stealth signatures along with improved avionics and engines will definitely make it a formidable platform.
IAF should consider incorporating improved radar stealth in its MCA design.
By the way a stealth design does carry inherent advantages in a combat scenario that can be beat only with superior sensors and weapons.Can we take it for granted that China wont have access to these ?

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 Jan 2011 11:07

I am still scratching my head and wondering why the fatbox is stenciled "2001"? Any ideas?

I can understand 2010 or 2011, or KH-2001 on Ell See Yay., but 2001 on J20? To show design finalized in 2001?

prithvi · Post by **prithvi** » 07 Jan 2011 11:16

shiv wrote:
prithvi wrote:
why shd I withdraw..? your world view might be different than me... that's alright...
You're dead right it is. I have a fundamentally different viewpoint from you on the importance of appearing on CNN, a TV a channel that is unknown to the vast majority of over 400 million TV viewers in India. To me, in India the fact that the Arihant featured on an Indian TV channel is reality, and the story that the J-20 appeared on some obscure foreign TV channel called CNN is hearsay which I know of only because you said it and I have to take your word for it. I cannot for the life of me imagine why it might be so important for the Arihant to appear on CNN.

Amen...!! btw I said .. CNN International...not regular CNN...they have two different web channels in case you are unaware.... and CNN International has a different editorial content than CNN US ... sad part is ... I am very much against media propaganda and typically keep myself abreast with both side of the stories... my whole point was... if we could have provided a little more coverage on Arihant since day 0 ...it would have been better...
anyway never mind..Sir.....
most of the time I enjoy myself reading through the forum...and hardly post in fear of touching the "sensitivities" of seniors..

songfeihong · Post by **songfeihong** » 07 Jan 2011 11:16

According to fans around the airfield, there are two J20s ready to fly and president Hu is there.

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 Jan 2011 11:18

kit wrote:...the large J20 can technically house a much larger radar possibly AESA and carry a larger complement mix of BVRAAMS and extended range AAM and air to ground munitions.

That can also be done to LCA or SU-30 MKI. Talking about stealth, how is it possible that the canards *will not* give the "stealthiness" away? The canards on FatBox is huuuge. Actually it has Eight (8) control areas. Other than the nose and air intakes (a.la F-22) what else new thing does it have?

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 Jan 2011 11:21

songfeihong wrote:According to fans around the airfield, there are two J20s ready to fly and president Hu is there.

Why two? Why not three? Or one? Or one is a dummy and other is to fly or both to fly?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Jan 2011 11:21

equal-equal to Tejas hehehe. or maybe the project kicked off in 2001...airframe construction would be started 3-4 yrs ago and a static rig would exist before it even started taxi trials.
I have seen pix on internet of WS-10 being allegedly tested on Su27, the colour of the afterburner flame (blue) vs red (of al31) being used by internet experts to distinguish the two.

songfeihong · Post by **songfeihong** » 07 Jan 2011 11:25

Some said that there are two prototype j20s with different engines as shown in photos, but they have the same '2001' on them. It seems both are going to have their maiden flight today.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 07 Jan 2011 11:33

There are 2 with same 2001 on them cause they copy pasted it and forgot to change the number

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 07 Jan 2011 11:37

Kanson wrote:They are NOT two prototypes as all the photos are stenciled with the same prototype number "2001" in the nose, indicating the same plane.

BTW, Indranilroy, kudos.

Some people say there are 2 planes with 2001 on it, they have different nozzles.

Gaur · Post by **Gaur** » 07 Jan 2011 11:41

songfeihong wrote:Some said that there are two prototype j20s with different engines as shown in photos, but they have the same '2001' on them. It seems both are going to have their maiden flight today.

There are rumours flying around (no pun intended

) that a 747 carrying top honchos has landed and the surrounding areas have been cleared of civilians by PLA soldiers. Is there any rumour regarding Chinese journalists and video crew?

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 07 Jan 2011 11:44

Gaur wrote:
songfeihong wrote:Some said that there are two prototype j20s with different engines as shown in photos, but they have the same '2001' on them. It seems both are going to have their maiden flight today.
There are rumours flying around (no pun intended ) that a 747 carrying top honchos has landed and the surrounding areas have been cleared of civilians by PLA soldiers. Is there any rumour regarding Chinese journalists and video crew?

Yup, CCTV crew is there and set up, no idea of journalists but I assume they're there too. They say president Hu is there as well. Pretty much everybody there took pictures with the plane over the past few minutes like tourists

EDIT: it's confirmed, Hu Jintao just showed up, everybody stood up to welcome him.

songfeihong · Post by **songfeihong** » 07 Jan 2011 11:54

8 pilots line up to shake hands with big boss. 4 for 2 two seat J10B, 1 for K-8, 2 for 2 J20 and one backup maybe.

Gaur · Post by **Gaur** » 07 Jan 2011 11:57

DavidD wrote: Yup, CCTV crew is there and set up, no idea of journalists but I assume they're there too. They say president Hu is there as well. Pretty much everybody there took pictures with the plane over the past few minutes like tourists

EDIT: it's confirmed, Hu Jintao just showed up, everybody stood up to welcome him.

Is there any pic which clearly shows the top of J-20? I have seen some pics like the following:
http://oi56.tinypic.com/2hwpsud.jpg
However is there any other pic which gives a better top view? I ask this because the schematics that are being posted in some forums do not add up. The edge alignment does not seem right in most of them. So, it would be nice to see a better picture of the top view.