Internal Security Watch

[brihaspati]

somnath wrote
..Cultural compatibility is absolutely an important factor in taking outsourcing decisions...But there is nothing in data to suggest that somehow all "muslim" countries are culturally incompatible to succeed in the investor sweepstakes, as you are suggesting..Malaysia in fact is a large centre for outsourcing services targeted towards East Asian countries.

..

Turkey is a huge manufacturing centre for a large number of European companies..Look at their macro numbers, they are uniformly better than India's on all human development indicators - that itself should tell you something, even if you dont know that Royal Dutch Shell, DHL, HP and Standard Chartered have their global or regional shared support centres in Malaysia. You know why, among other reasons, for servicing East Asia, Malaysia is much more culturally compatible than India...

Now why exactly is Malaysia "much more culturally compatible" to servicing East Asia? Which elements of Malaysian culture is more compatible with Thailand, Kampuchea, Vietnam, Oz, Japan compared to India? Is that or those factors unrelated to "religion" - especially the two large Muslim populations of Indonesia and Malaysia? Is Malaysia a better culturally compatible one to service non-SE Asian global service locations/consumer/client ends than India?

What you say about Philippines is right, they would be high on compatibility, but score low on a number of other factors - which is precisely my point..The limited point is that investors do not view these things from a religious perspective, ceteris paribus..

Sure, you would dismiss Mahathir's championing of "Islamic finance", or the increasing stress on the requirement to "supply" Halaal products - and the response on the "investors/company/business/industry" side from non SE Asian or non-muslim-SE Asian investors side?

[brihaspati]

Somnath ji,
going through your previous posts again, one things strikes me as peculiar - your list of "most politicians" and who have apparently used "communitarian" issues for political purposes. Your list is pretty limited. Would you seriously provide a list of "politicians" of Republican India out of whom "most" have shown communitarian politicking?

You also claim that these "communitarian" moves have not set back India in any way. Do you claim that there has not been any lasting consequence for those moves? do you consider the various categories of reservations based on community as not a lasting consequence for India? You claim that they "mouth" a lot of "soundbytes" but do not reflect that in actual policy about communitarian posturing. Okay, the LKA-ABV posture did not reflect their "communitarian" (again you make all identity elements in political position as "equivalent" - so for you Dalitism == Islamism =="Hindutva") statements and no lasting legislative or administrative measures exist to reflect their supposed position.

But for "Dalit" communitarianism, policies and measures exist, for "Islamist" communitarianism, reservations now exist at various proportions in at least four states of India - ranging from 4 - 12%. People are now reporting about the consequences of "Islamist" communitarianism as reflected in WB governmental apathy over increasing incidence of violence by Islamist gangs along the border on the WB side. We know that it also reflects concretely even at the national level as illustrated over the issue of Tasleema Nasreen.

What makes you claim that these communitarian politics has not been backed up by adminsitrative and legislative measures and they remain mere soundbytes?

Why do you think that the only danger in Digvijay's statements lie in the "emotional" reaction to his words? Who would emotionally react to Digvijay's allegations and in what way would they pose danger to India? Do you mean people would react negatively or positively to his words? Depending on that answer more serious questions arise.

[somnath]

Actually, which East Asian country openly and officially declared their currencies to have been pegged to any other identified currency? (I could be wrong, but I think only HK gave any indication formally - all others let it be known that they were pegging but did not disclose the currency basket).

Sir, thi is sophistry at its best..You first started by saying that these currencies were pegged to European currencies, then said "some" were pegged to European currencies, and now you are saying that none of these currecnies were "openly and publicly" pegged to the dollar! For those familiar with exchange rate management practices, very few countries "officially" peg their currencies - the benefits of that are quite small in most cases..But implicit pegs that central bank manage are well known in practitioner's circles, as well as the academia...

Dollar peg and the East Asian crisis in fact is a deja vu article in all knowledgeable circles..Ironically, the dollar-peg broke down as a result of the crisis, and funnily enough seems to be coming back again!

http://www-siepr.stanford.edu/workp/swp00013.pdf

Yen was in fact quite well known not to have been pegged at all to even the dollar

How is the Yen connected to the East Asian crisis?

The point is simply that even after such apparent success these Muslim countries could not resist the financial mauling at the hands of external investors and speculators - which does not indicate a very sound economic base. Greeks and the Irish or the British do not compare because the nature of their financial crises is largely different from the SE Asian ones of late 90's

So whats the point? That is these countries were somehow not "muslim", their resistance to financial speculators would have been better? Well, the contagion started off with Thailand, which is a buddhist country...And yes, each crisis is different, else they wouldnt be black swans..But religion hardly makes for any good defence against financial crises...

The Muslim countries without a strong petro base could be showing the effects of a dependent production system that was severely open to manipulation and attack by external speculative forces. This is not the situation for India or UK or even the EU.

Well, I dont know what you mean by a dependent production system..major Most production chains around the world are incredibly interdependent these days - Jagdish Bhagwati has built an entire (glittering) career out of celebrating exactly that! As far as vulneability to financial speculation is concerned, hardly a "muslim" characteristic - the PIIGS universe, UK, everyone is vulnerable..

Now why exactly is Malaysia "much more culturally compatible" to servicing East Asia? Which elements of Malaysian culture is more compatible with Thailand, Kampuchea, Vietnam, Oz, Japan compared to India? Is that or those factors unrelated to "religion" - especially the two large Muslim populations of Indonesia and Malaysia? Is Malaysia a better culturally compatible one to service non-SE Asian global service locations/consumer/client ends than India?

In many ways, yes, it is...The reason? imple - can you find 5000 Mandarin (or Hokkien, or Cantonese, or Bahasa, or any of the other popular East Asian languages) speakers in India? No...Add to that superb infrastructure (at least better than India's), relatively well-trained workforce (not as good as India's), and relatively inexpensive real estate (certainly compared to Mumbai and Delhi!) - there are good reasons why companies locate their shared services centres in M'sia..Mind you, its not an either or situation - India trumps most, if not all countries in outsourcing - merely the fact that others, including "muslim" countries, too succeed in the same sweepstakes..

Sure, you would dismiss Mahathir's championing of "Islamic finance", or the increasing stress on the requirement to "supply" Halaal products - and the response on the "investors/company/business/industry" side from non SE Asian or non-muslim-SE Asian investors side

Again, how is this relevant? About "non-muslim" businessmen having problems with "halaal products" - well, supermarkets across the region tore halaal products, and reap very good profits out of them, why should anyone have a problem? Ditto for Islamic finance, which every international bank has as an offering across geogrpahies - its a huge business (personally I dont see the merits of it too much, but I dont know anything about it - but if banks are making money out of it, whats the problem?)..

[somnath]

But for "Dalit" communitarianism, policies and measures exist, for "Islamist" communitarianism, reservations now exist at various proportions in at least four states of India - ranging from 4 - 12%. People are now reporting about the consequences of "Islamist" communitarianism as reflected in WB governmental apathy over increasing incidence of violence by Islamist gangs along the border on the WB side. We know that it also reflects concretely even at the national level as illustrated over the issue of Tasleema Nasreen.

You are mixing up communitarian rhetoric with administrative actions, some of whom might (does) have sound logic...Afirmative action for example, is an absolute necessity for Dalits and tribals, though not in the form of reservations which I detest..The larger point is about the rhetoric commensurating with administrative action..In its days in the political wilderness, the BSP's rhetoric was "tilak, taraazu....."..when they came within sniffing distance of power, what did they do? They painstakingly built a coalition with the brahmins..When they actually took over power, Mayawati's advisors are all brahmins/upper castes - the closest one being SC Mishra, and delivered a governance that has been no dfferent from the average government in quality..any visitor to Lucknow/Allahabad will realise that the bania stranglehold over business, the brahmin stranglehold over the academia and the upper caste stranglehold of the bureaucracy is intact...None of the "send upper castes to their grave" rhetoric stands...

Politicians invoking rhetoric also take token administrative measures to satisfy their rhetoric - so Mayawati builds Ambedkar statues, Shiv Sena goes around vandalising anything that has anything to do wih Shivaji...Tasleema Nasreen, MF Hussain, Salman Rushdie - they are all symbols of the tokenistic urges of rhetoricians...And most people these days recognise the tokenisms for what they are..The important point though is that substantive policy-making seldom gets impacted...the Prime Minister (in)famously spoke to minorities having "first right" over resources - rhetoric...Policy - making Salman Khurshid the Company Affairs minister along with Minority Affairs! Presumably in order to enable greater share of corporate profits to minorities!! On the other hand, IAEA votes against Iran (which presumably works up the muslim street) continued as India parleyed with the US on the nuke deal...

As for Digvijay Singh, well I said beore that his statements are obnoxious..But then that is already being said in the media, whats different if we simply regurgitate that? Its a bit more interesting analysing the motivations and pressure points and the "real deal", and probably expose the politician for wht he is...

[Raghavendra]

Sachin kidnap plot: 6 terrorists to be sentenced http://www.zeenews.com/news678966.html

New Delhi: A Delhi court is likely to pronounce on Friday the quantum of sentence against six HuJI militants, including three Pakistanis, who were convicted for conspiring to kidnap cricketers Sachin Tendulkar and Sourav Ganguly in 2002 to secure the release of two jailed terrorists.

Additional Sessions Judge (ASJ) Pinki would hear the arguments on sentence against the convicts.

Earlier, the court had convicted the Harkat-ul-Jehadi Islami (HuJI) terrorists under various provisons of stringent anti-terror law POTA (Prevention of Terrorism Act) and other penal laws.

Those convicted included three Pakistan-based militants, Tariq Mohammed, Arshad Khan and Ashfaq Ahmed.

Besides them, three Indians - Mufti Israr, Ghulam Qadir Bhatt and Ghulam Mohd Dar - were also held guilty in the case.

The accused had conspired to kidnap the cricketers for securing the release of two jailed HuJI terrorists Nasarullah Langrial and Abdul Rahim who were then lodged in jails in New Delhi.

The HUJI terrorists are also accused of plotting to assassinate former President APJ Abdul Kalam during his visit to Patna in 2002.

The Delhi Police had also charged them with conspiring to attack the Bhaba Atomic Research Centre in Mumbai.

[negi]

RSS accuses CBI of leaking Aseemanand''s confession

[AbhishekD]

I think we should condemn extremist hindu groups who have perpetrated acts of terror in the last 5 years and expect our law enforcement agencies to prosecute them vigorously. It is extremely important that their is enough deterrent to stop these groups from spreading terror and violence in India.

It seems unlikely that NIA would act on the behest of the political machinations of the congress party. CONgress party wont create such a huge subterfuge. Now it should just be a matter of judicial process to put these individuals behind bar and finally a death penalty.

[brihaspati]

I think we should condemn extremist hindu groups who have perpetrated acts of terror in the last 5 years and expect our law enforcement agencies to prosecute them vigorously. It is extremely important that their is enough deterrent to stop these groups from spreading terror and violence in India.

It seems unlikely that NIA would act on the behest of the political machinations of the congress party. CONgress party wont create such a huge subterfuge. Now it should just be a matter of judicial process to put these individuals behind bar and finally a death penalty.

Do you you also support using exactly the same arguments and logic for all other supposed religion based extremist groups?
What can you put up as proof for NIA's immunity to acting on the behest of political machinations of the Congress?
What is the concrete evidence for you that the Congress won't create such a huge subterfuge?

Actually, another interesting question is the question of ULFA. So ULFA is being pandered up to now and they will in all likelihood be politically accommodated. Can you get a body count for ULFA terrorism? Same goes for Geelani and his cronies from Kashmir Valley. Are you saying that the Congress party actually rewards massive and persistent terror but that the so-called Hindu terrorists must be "judicially" "put to death"? So it is simply a matter of scale? Small scale "terror" should be predestined to the death penalty and the judicial process must be aimed at confirming that predestined aim - but if the scale is large enough then just accommodate it?

In fact your last line is the most interesting of all. You are already convinced, that the judicial process should automatically award the death penalty to the alleged perpetrators! Any particular affiliation or compulsion to appear over-zealous to get all people from particular ideological background eliminated physically?

[Murugan]

Terror 'confession' turns political
7 Jan 2011, 1719 hrs IST
After Saffron terror link came out in the open with swami Aseemanand reportedly confessing to his role in Samjhauta express blast, the confessions have triggered a war of words between the Congress and the BJP. The Government, however, does not confirm the report.

While the spokesperson of the Congress, Manish Tiwari, expressed shock at the revelations, the BJP condemning the charges once again accused the UPA of using the Central Bureau of Investiation (CBI) as a tool to ruin the image of the Sangh Parivar.

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Singh (RSS) called the confession a political conspiracy. Manmohan Vaidya of the Akhil Bharatiya Prachar Pramukh said that if a court found any Sangh member guilty, they would be punished.

The confession, however, raises a number of questions, including how the government explains the new information given its stand on role of lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and HuJI in Samjhauta blasts, and also the fact that even the UNSC and the US position on LeT and HuJI role in Samjhauta blast.

Contradictions in the case:

- Does this contradict India's official position on LeT and HuJI role in Samjhauta?

- Does this contradict UNSC and US position on LeT and HuJI role in Samjhauta blast?

- Doesn't this contradict Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh police arresting SIMI men for alleged role in Malegaon and Mecca Masjid blasts?

http://www.timesnow.tv/Terror-confessio ... 362148.cms

BTW, Are any big elections around? The Anti RSS/Sangh Parivar/BJP noise level is gaining high decibels

[Murugan]

I have found the answer

Various elections are due in Tamilnadu and Kerala this year 2011.

Be ready to read more about muslims, malegaon and modi related articles in govt and sec media.

Bring aseemanand in picture, you will get more christian votes in tamilnadu and kerala, mix it with malegaon you will get more muslim votes in kerla. congress is clear winner.

After scandal management, congress is very good in timing "gathering and garnering 'secular' votes" management.

Bravo congress!

The karma of indic people are responsible that we have such a ruling party who is totally directionless, unpatriotic, issuelss and ultimately useless.

[brihaspati]

^^^In the light of prior discussions, may be all this is standard, allowed, to-be-accepted politcian's trade. It is only for gaining votes in elections, no politician really means what he is saying. So all this judicial action and investigative teams going after organizations, and political party spokespersons expressing shock etc are simply posturings - and they don't mean it. They are not really taking any concrete ground action consistent with their statements - the NIA, CBI stuff is not really happening - its rhetoric only. It is happening and not happening. In time this will all be forgotten, no effect will remain, and India will not suffer any setback.

Even if the state is moving against the RSS, and perhaps by implied association BJP, the state is not really moving against them, and these will not amount to any realistic effect on ground.

No move is a move, any move is a non-move. everything is Maya onlee.

[brihaspati]

somnath ji,
Yen has no relevance for the 90's East Asian crisis???!!! hmm, I must let my co-authors know that all their work was in vain. In fact a lot of journals should throw away a lot of papers. sad! OT, and shock and awe at your expertise! Maybe you should consider writing a paper confirming your claim that the Yen had no relevance. A lot of us would be highly curious and eager to receive this light!

[Murugan]

Oh elections are due in Assam and West Bengal too.

now i know the purpose of all dhongi moves muslim pampering, malegaon mingling and modi bashing.

The secret is wide open, dhongis.

[Pratyush]

^^^

WRT,

Elections being due, please note that the Kangress has expressed a desire to face the Mid term elections. This could be a part of the preparatory process for the said mid term general elections. on the basis of which the yuvraj will be foisted on the poor SDREs.

[brihaspati]

If it is elections, then why does RSS-bashing guarantee Muslim votes? Wasn't it so that Indian Muslims do not vote on religious considerations and do not show so-called block voting as a religious community based on religious perceptions of friends or foes?

[Murugan]

^^ It should be like that but congress thinks so for decades. Earlier it was KHAM and Dalits were the best bet. half of the dalits have converted and the remaining votes for non-cong parties. KHAM is no more relevent. Only M is relevant.

[Murugan]

RSS bashing will also garner christian and handful of psec votes. My cath/protestant colleagues have openly acknowledged this.

And this is a very important factor in triangular contests especially when this contest is orchestrated by two secular parties. it is a great game even vishwanath anand cannot understand. see how he was treated as he sat and lunched with modi and played with gujarati kids.

[Pratyush]

It is not merely to gain Muslim votes. The idea is to divide the Hindu vote as well. The RSS is taken to be Brahaminical organisation. Discrediting it will break the support of the non Brahman constituency from the BJP that is the calculation. Whether or not that materializes is open to debate.

The Kangress is hoping that the OBC votes will come to them. But to attain that end it has done nothing to break the hold of the yadav stalwarts on the community.

[Murugan]

IMVVHO, Aseemanand episode is deliberately raked up to garner more christian votes in both the southern states. Especially the newly converted lot of tamil christians. Aseemanand is known for stopping conversion activities in gujarat. also automatically gives a modi angle.
congress' favourite!

Two birds with one stone

Ek panth do kaaj

Mera bharat ka congress mahan

[Venkarl]

woww...is it in the Hindu psyche to tolerate all kinds of insults and still vote for congress?

Even a 50% of 80% Hindu population are not hurt by INC's anti-Hindu stance and policies?

What else has to be done for an average Hindu to realize the truth of INC's drama?

We Hindus truly deserve this kind of leadership..if this situation continues unchanged for another 25 years...average Hindu can kiss his life good bye..even the territorial integrity of India might be challenged....forget the concept of Akhand Bharat.

[Murugan]

^ Hindus should educated about the game plans of kaangress and UPA II partners.

Voters kicked kaangi and UPA parteners in Bihar recently. But kaangress remains desperate always and playing the same dangerous games again and again dividing people in the name of religion and races.

Irony is kaangress dont ask for votes on progressive plank. Only cunning approach to defeat the non-seculars.

[Murugan]

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/127 ... amble.html

Diggi raja's great gamble:

from above link

It is a long story but two landmarks can be cited en route the Congress’ current debilitations and which Singh is trying to address. After Indira Gandhi’s second coming in 1980, possibly in a state of funk after the 1977 defeat, Congress leaders began to lend their ear to the Sangh Parivar’s chant, risen to a crescendo in the classical style of propaganda, that Muslims were ‘appeased.’ How ‘appeased’ they were has been laid bare by the Sachar Committee report two years ago.

Hospitality to Parivar propaganda confirmed the re-emergence in the Congress of a streak, a certain inclination. Soon after Nehru’s death, prime minister Lal Bahadur Shastri led the country to the 1965 war with Pakistan. During this war, Guru Golwalkar’s RSS volunteers were commandeered by the government for civil defence.

A fear, real or simulated, that the Hindus would walk out on the Congress, led to an ambidextrous policy — open the locks of the temple at Ayodhya to please the Hindus; upturn the Shah Bano judgement to please the Muslims. The policy boomeranged resulting in the demolition of the Babari Masjid. The Muslims walked out on the Congress en masse. He flirted with caste and regional forces but, in the absence of secular options, has hovered on the edges of the Congress with Hamletian indecision.

...

Meanwhile, post Gujarat, political uses of terrorism were cunningly recognised. Acts of terror, pinned on the Muslims, would create a hothouse atmosphere, divisive, in which an over arching Hindu consolidation was possible.

It was part of this strategy that Malegaon, Mecca Masjid, Khwaja Moinuddin Chisti’s Dargah in Ajmer, Samjhauta Express, Hemant Karkare, happened.

[Murugan]

Interestingly, the Samjhauta blast is being probed by National Investigating Agency, while Aseemanand made the confession to CBI which is interrogating him for involvement in some other cases.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_wi ... me_1491744

[somnath]

somnath ji,
Yen has no relevance for the 90's East Asian crisis???!!! hmm, I must let my co-authors know that all their work was in vain. In fact a lot of journals should throw away a lot of papers. sad! OT, and shock and awe at your expertise! Maybe you should consider writing a paper confirming your claim that the Yen had no relevance. A lot of us would be highly curious and eager to receive this light!

Brihaspatiji, waiting with bated breath published accounts from you and your co-authors on the following claims you made:

1. East Asian currecnies were pegged to European currencies..
2. Malaysia/Turkey (basically all "successful" muslim nations) have dependent economic structures that somehow make them more vulnerable to financial speculators. along with some explanation of how any "dependencies" in the muslim nations are different from those in similarly situated coutries...
3. And yes of course, some published insights on why halaal products and Islamic banking should drive away investors...

While I wait with anticipation, it is tempered with the apprehensions of your unfamiliarities that stems from many of your assertions, not least this

but I think only HK gave any indication formally

All practitioners in the field, academics included should know (and not think) that HKD is an officially pegged to the USD, has been for a long time, and remains so now (in a range)...No indication - a clear enunciation of a policy, including ranges well-defined...Has been for a long time...

About the impact of Yen on Asian crisis, maybe I should have probably put it more lucidly - what is the impact of the pegging of East Asian currencies to a basket consisting Yen (and DM) (as you claim) has to do with the crisis? In fact one of the signifcant macroeconomcic factors that drove the ccy crisis was that the external accounts of all the "Tiger" economies deteriorated massively as they had pegged their ccies to the USD while the JPY depreciated against the dollar...which rendered exports uncompetitive...If you (and your co-authors) have even a passing familiarity to the crisis, you should know that all East Asian economies imported a lot of capital goods and intermediates from Japan to "value-add" and export to the US...In case they had really managed a "Yen peg" as you claim, they should not have had the massive overvaluation vis-a-vis the Yen that they did....I would only recommend Prof CH Kwan's analyses for more information...

Anyway way OT....But wait for your "publications" on the issues above...

[vera_k]

Interestingly, the Samjhauta blast is being probed by National Investigating Agency, while Aseemanand made the confession to CBI which is interrogating him for involvement in some other cases.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_wi ... me_1491744

That makes it a competitive fight between Chidambaram and Digvijay Singh.

[somnath]

Without prejudging the complicity of Aseemanand (and other "hindutva warriors"!) in terror crimes, in case the war against terror has to be won, all crimes need to be tackled with the same enthusiasm..Exceptionalism only bolsters the ranks of fifth columnists, and widens the support base for the real terrorists..the US showed as much alacrity in tackling each and every hate crime incident as they did going after Laden and co...

Diggy raja and parts of the Congress is playing cynical politics with some of the cases, but at a brasstacks level, it is a bit farfetched to ascribe similar motivations to NIA (or the broader intel/criminal investigation setup)...The NIA decisively went after Madhani, and he can presumably cause damage to the Congress in Kerala this year...The NIA and RAW (and I am sure the PMO) have also been at the forefront of getting a ton of jihadi types depoerted back from places in the middle east)..

The Congress though "thinks" that RSS bashing brings muslim votes..but repeated lessons dont go down properly with them...Muslims in most elections vote to defeat /"control" the BJP, and so the trick is to be a winnable candidate, not bash RSS..
mayawati doesnt basj RSS, but gets muslim votes, Nitish is "allied" to the BJP, but gets their votes...congress never learns..

[Arjun]

Without prejudging the complicity of Aseemanand (and other "hindutva warriors"!) in terror crimes, in case the war against terror has to be won, all crimes need to be tackled with the same enthusiasm..Exceptionalism only bolsters the ranks of fifth columnists, and widens the support base for the real terrorists..the US showed as much alacrity in tackling each and every hate crime incident as they did going after Laden and co...

I agree with you on this one, subject of course to the complicity of Aseemanand being proven (the case currently does seem fairly suspect and tenuous)...

If indeed the Hindu retaliatory acts are proven to be correct (and none have been proven so far) - there are 4 types of terrorism that the state faces: Islamic, Naxal, Christian and Hindu-retaliatory (have ranked these by my objective assessment of threat to the state based on number of incidents, type of organizations involved, number of deaths etc).

There seems to be a certain amount of exceptionalism to calling out NE-Christian terrorism for what it is, and this needs to be corrected as well.

[disha]

Is Congi-Dhongi also trying to do equal-equal between Binayak Sen and Aseemanand? Just a thought.

Shame on Congi-Dhongi in all ways.

[arunsrinivasan]

Is there any sustained effort by the BJP/Hindu organisations in the south to combat conversions? Andhra and TN are going the way of the North East.

[shyamd]

^^Read some of my posts on the subject in TN. On the ground - its ordinary people fighting this, spending out of their pocket to prevent conversions and the cheating thats going on.

TN announced a review of charity orphanages in the state- re submit license applications. Quite a few have been closed down as a result.

For example, in my local area, a pastor was giving local dalits holy water and preaching. And all of a sudden some of the older men were saying that their knees were getting healed and better. A doctor sent the water for tests and found out that they had put some steroids in there. The dalits had replaced their lungi's for trousers. So others were like WTF going on here? Once the test reports for steroids came out, a few locals (educated guys) out of their own initiative took on the pastor and his helpers - threats were made "you come around here again and we'll chop your legs off etc". That sorted that out. Swamiyars from nearby town called in to re-educate the dalits.

All local initiative of people.

Read my previous posts on Bihari gangs kidnapping kids and selling them to christian orphanages in TN. It led to state govt announcing a census and a review of licenses for all NGO's/oprphanages etc.

[shyamd]

Underworld goes underground
Last updated: 1/7/2011 8:45
Interpol red alert subject found safe haven in Vietnam for five years

Smuggling, kidnapping, extortion and murders galore – Indian gangster Bunty Pandey had plenty of such crimes to his credit, and was wanted by the Indian police for at least 38 cases – and counting.

Despite an Interpol red corner notice issued for Pandey in 2002, he was nowhere to be found. Since 2002, Pandey had traveled to Nepal, Singapore, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.

The mystery was solved a few months ago.

He had been living in Ho Chi Minh City for five years with his family and children as a labor contractor and consultant, it was revealed last week during a review meeting held by the southern office of the Ministry of Public Security.

Among the 89 criminals nabbed in the southern region in 2010, the prize catch was 40-yearold Prakash Pandey aka Bunty Pandey. He stayed in Vietnam as Vijay Subash Sharma.

He had obtained an Indian passport from Mumbai in 1999 impersonating as Vijay Subhash Sharma. All his subsequent passports were also in this name making it difficult for Interpol and the Indian police to track him.

The gangster was arrested at a 20th floor condominium of Nhieu Loc Apartment in Ho HCMC’s District 3, where he was living with his wife and two children, police said.

The arrest was conducted on October 22 by a joint force of Interpol Vietnam and Agency No.1 that is in charge of handling foreign-related cases, following intimation from Interpol India saying that Pandey may be in Vietnam.

Thanh Nien Weekly learned that Pandey had not stopped dabbling in crime during his stay in Vietnam, although such activities appear to have been confined to India. He was involved in extortion and blackmailing even when he was here, and the police in India’s Mumbai City had cases on him as recently as in 2009.

In fact, his involvement in what looks like human trafficking came to light the day he was deported to India. A group of 16 Indian nationals were found by local police stranded in a public park in HCMC on November 4, all but one of them without passports or other valid travel document.

They said Pandey had brought them into the country in October 2010, some days before his arrest, and taken their passports and money, promising jobs and work permits in Vietnam. Since their documents could not be found and Pandey had been deported, the workers were also repatriated. Some of the passports may have been submitted for obtaining work permits to authorities in HCMC and may still be with them, Indian embassy officials told Thanh Nien Weekly.

Vietnamese police only said they found the Indian criminal by applying “professional methods.” The Times of India, meanwhile, said police tracked him down via a SIM card issued in Vietnam.

"He had been using a SIM card issued in Vietnam but would not make calls from this number. However, he must have forgotten that he had used the same card while speaking to one of his cronies last year. The number entered our records and we started monitoring it," the paper cited an anonymous police source as saying.

"His phone was being tapped. When the name of a local gangster cropped up, the police was certain that it was Pandey who was using the SIM card. ”

Reports from India say Pandey is being kept in an isolated cell of the Mumbai crime branch's two-storey lock up.

Indian Ambassador Ranjit Rae told Thanh Nien Weekly that this case marked “a high point of the cooperation and trust between India and Vietnam in general and the police authorities in particular.” He commended the relevant agencies of the Vietnam’s Ministry of Public Security for their support in apprehending Bunty Pandey.

Asked about the trend of Indian mafia members choosing to set up camp in Southeast Asia, Rae said that “It was necessary to step-up cooperation between the law enforcement authorities of concerned countries.”

Pandey's journey in crime began in his home state of Nainital in Uttarakhand. He came into his own in 1995, when he helped underworld Don Chota Rajan execute the killing of Thakiyuddin Wahid, managing director of East-West airlines, outside the latter's office. Wahid had refused to pay extortion money.

His crime run continued for years. Mumbai crime branch chief Himanshu Roy said that Pandey severed ties with the Rajan gang in 2002.

The Indian police source told the Times of India: "He lived in a number of countries, including Nepal, Bangladesh, Thailand, Singapore and Cambodia. But mostly he spent his time in Vietnam where he had a work permit and was posing as a labor contractor and consultant."

[somnath]

there are 4 types of terrorism that the state faces: Islamic, Naxal, Christian and Hindu-retaliatory (have ranked these by my objective assessment of threat to the state based on number of incidents, type of organizations involved, number of deaths etc).

There seems to be a certain amount of exceptionalism to calling out NE-Christian terrorism for what it is, and this needs to be corrected as well.

IMO, terrorism, ie, random attacks by groups/individuals on target either to spread panic or with the aim of liquidating key individuals is one aspect of the threat...Insurgency, which is an armed revolt by group(s) on the authority of the state in a region or across a few regions, and often has a degree of "mass support", is the second aspect..

While terrorism and insurgency can sometimes overlap in their actions and impact, they have fundamentally different characteristics...For example, ULFA ran (runs!) primarily an insurgency campaign against the Indian state, but has often undertaken random bomb blasts in urban areas of Assam...However, countering ULFA requires a pattern of responses that are fundamentally different from that of say, countering the IM, which is purely a terrorist organisation bent on spreading terror..

Terrorism has no military solution, and has no political solution either..While the grounds for the "motivations" of certain types of terrorists can be obviated over time, it will never be enough...Policing, intelligence, luck and large-scale community support are required to counter this type of strife..Perpetrators of terror should not receive any "objectives-related" considerations...The so-called Hindutva warriors like Aseemanand (if proven guilty) would fall in this category..

Insurgency on the other hand is amenable to a partial military solution, but has to be finally licked through a political settlement...Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Assam, Punjab - these are all examples of insurgencies that have been licked through a template of military/police action, followed by (or parallely undertaken) intense political engagement with the key players, thereby cutting off the "roots" of the insurgency...Naxalism too would fall in the same category..Here, the final political settlement often (though not always, Punjab is an exception) needs to be with those who have wielded the gun, or motivated those who did...Whether we like it or not, in such cases, the leaders may end up in positions of power and not suffer any "punishment" for their "crimes"...However, for the larger good of the nation state and society, that is an acceptable price to pay...Laldenga, Longowal, the Bodo leaders are all "beneficiaries" of this approach...Insurgencies have their roots in socio-economic and political grievances, and a key feature is that armed groups often arise out of legal entities that were voicing the discontent, frequently as a result of state apathy...

The biggest vulnerability of insurgent groups is their morphing into terror outfits...Because that is when they start losing popular support and lose the people they are supposed to be representing...

Its a bit naive to call all insurgent groups in the NE as "christian" outfit BTW - ULFA is hardly christian...Even the christian outfits like NSCN (IM) dont harp on the religiousity as a factor...There are too many cometing tribal groups there for a religion to be an over-rising variable, even if it is used at times by some groups..

[brihaspati]

somnath ji,
you can make your points without trying to denigrate the poster. You are quite free with your adjectives about posters/posting styles/content which makes me feel that you are also unfamiliar with impersonal expositions of debatable points.

It is actually I who proposed waiting to get the light from you in the form of a published paper that disproves any "relevance" of the Yen in the East Asian Crisis. You used the word "relevance" isn't it? If I was unfamiliar with HK formally pegging it to the dollar, I would not have said that only HK gave any "indication" of pegging so. In your eagerness to trash and dismiss any alternative opinion, you often try to twist words around and spin it as meaning what you claim. You yourself used the expression that these countries pegged with the dollar [dirty float]. How do you know this technically and legally - the countries did not declare it, isnt it? It had to be estimated through a statistical estimation procedure and tested for signficance, isnt it? This is not an economics or international finance thread, so I had avoided explicit expressions normally used in that area.

If I suggest my own papers that blows my web cover, doesn't it? Since you deny any relevance anyway, you do not belong to that field either so it will be a waste of time.

IMO, terrorism, ie, random attacks by groups/individuals on target either to spread panic or with the aim of liquidating key individuals is one aspect of the threat...Insurgency, which is an armed revolt by group(s) on the authority of the state in a region or across a few regions, and often has a degree of "mass support", is the second aspect..

While terrorism and insurgency can sometimes overlap in their actions and impact, they have fundamentally different characteristics...For example, ULFA ran (runs!) primarily an insurgency campaign against the Indian state, but has often undertaken random bomb blasts in urban areas of Assam...However, countering ULFA requires a pattern of responses that are fundamentally different from that of say, countering the IM, which is purely a terrorist organisation bent on spreading terror..

Terrorism has no military solution, and has no political solution either..While the grounds for the "motivations" of certain types of terrorists can be obviated over time, it will never be enough...Policing, intelligence, luck and large-scale community support are required to counter this type of strife..Perpetrators of terror should not receive any "objectives-related" considerations...The so-called Hindutva warriors like Aseemanand (if proven guilty) would fall in this category..

An extraordinary piece of "sophistry" I must say. What exactly differentiates between a "terror" group and an "insurgent" group? Only the question of "mass support"? When ULFA started out as a militant group, did they show instantaneous "mass support" from Ahomyias? Or are you going to now twist around and cite supposed origins from overground politically dissenting parties/groups as proof of "mass support"? How do you prove the extent of "mass support" for "insurgents" anyway?

How do you prove that what you term as non-insurgent "terror" groups do not have "mass" support in a region or a constituency [since you also have a problems in being familiar with various possible uses of a given English word - in this case "constituency" means a social subgroup that supports materially or ideologically]?

ULFA/Bhindranwale/Naxals - all started out as small groups carrying out terror acts. At that point they were almost always publicly dubbed as "breakaway" or "dissenting" factions of pre-existing political movements, and shown or seen as minority and isolated.

Is it your own sweet will which unilaterally decides what is a simple "terrorist" group which does random terror act, somehow manages to show lack of mass support [a matter of claima nd definition by those who hate them?] and to be crushed without attributing any political legitimacy - and what is an "insurgent" group which does not do random terror acts but "planned" terror attacks and which by its mere existence shows "mass support" and therefore to be also politically acknowledged?

[brihaspati]

Ultimately, at least in the Indian case, the role of central perception of the ideology or region being touted as behind the militancy - appears to be a key. Whether that militancy will be seen and dismissed as an isolated terror outfit or an insurgency that needs political compromises and legitimization.

[somnath]

Brihaspatiji,

No denigration intended - if any communicated, apologies! Only a bit weary of waiting for sources on your fundamental claims:

1. East Asian currecnies were pegged to European currencies..
2. Malaysia/Turkey (basically all "successful" muslim nations) have dependent economic structures that somehow make them more vulnerable to financial speculators. along with some explanation of how any "dependencies" in the muslim nations are different from those in similarly situated coutries...
3. And yes of course, some published insights on why halaal products and Islamic banking should drive away investors...

Ditto for a source paper on the relevance/accuracy of "yen pegging" that you claim, which I did not put across lucidly enough in the first instance, which I admitted..

Will still wait..You can also reference "other" people's works, not necessrily yours..

About dollar pegging not being "officially communicated", but to found out through mathematical analyses..Well that was never in doubt, all analyses are pretty unanimous on the dollar peg, its not even a subject matter of debate in the context of the Asian crisis..
In fact its part of a ceteris paribus condition...

[brihaspati]

As stated, I am reluctant to continue infinitely the economic points - the halaal products issue was mentioned not as something that should drive away investors. [Although it can in some complicated ways in some sectors]. However it was cited to show that "religion" could actually be a factor in investment decisions - and the nature of changes that could come over such decisions. You were giving the impression that "religion" had no effect on the "investment" decisions. I think you are assuming that I put forward those examples as showing "negative investment" reactions - I was simply interested in showing that religion can and is often consciously used to influence investment decisions.

Malaysia was a key mover in initiating branding of "halaal" products and trying to use religion to develop and corner a market. It has had effects on producers from non-Muslimc ountries traditionally doing business with Muslim countries. For the sake of markets they have modified their business or production processes, sure, and the results are still mixed or still being observed or analyzed. It will be a while before we know real effects as separated from media hype or financial propaganda.

[somnath]

As stated, I am reluctant to continue infinitely the economic points

Aah, would be quit interested to continue in the right thread (economics maybe?) in case you have anything concrete (havent seen a scintilla to reference yet for any ofn your claims despite the lengthy exchange)!

About your explanation on halaal, well by that logic India too uses "religion" to drive investment decisions of all processed food manufacturers and restaurant chains, with our sensitivities around beef! Mcdonalds shoudl start complaining! (though the chap who used to head the franchisee in India (spoke to him recently) doesnt!)...

BTW, one last point - M'sia has no monopoly of anything "halaal" - the Carrefours and Giants of the world pick that up pretty easily!

Anyways...

ULFA/Bhindranwale/Naxals - all started out as small groups carrying out terror acts. At that point they were almost always publicly dubbed as "breakaway" or "dissenting" factions of pre-existing political movements, and shown or seen as minority and isolated.

All three examples are unfortunately (again) factually wrong...ULFA was setup in 1979, in the womb of the same movement that had AASU and AAGSP..Its primary goals were anti-immigration, not secession...In fact it wasnt even banned till 1990! Ditto with Bhindrawalan - KPS Gill's book has an excellent account of the man and the phenomenon from a policeman's perspective, MJ Akbar from a journalistic perspective...And many others - net net, he was initially a legit political force to counter the Akalis using the same rhetoric as the Akalis, of course encouraged by the Congress...Naxals, well, while the "armed wing" has a different name etc now, to start with it was nothing but part of the broader communist movement...And there is enormous fungibility even now between the armed cadres and overground ones!

It is difficult to gauge the exact level of "mass support" for any insurgent group - thats tautological almost...But circumstances and events define it dirtily well...Laldenga won the elections after coming overground, as an example..

It isnt "my sweet will", but the nature of the challenge to the state and the ability of the state to douse the challenge with various political compromises/military solutiosn withn the legal framework of the state that defines the categorisations...

I think the Indian state does that pretty regularly, even if you dont wish to recognise it..

[brihaspati]

Yes, so you should rather state that it is a matter of scale of violence and persistence or punch that the group is able to impress on the public perception and the political establishment. It depends not simply on supposed simply observable and verifiable quantities of "mass support" etc, but it depends on a complicated mix of state perception of the strength of the group and its ability to impact the power structure or basis of power of the group in control of the state.

It does not depend on how the militant group carries out its violence, or the degree of possible mass support behind them.

If a group had actually been "put up" to counter some other political movement, then by necessity that "countering" group did not have a natural start and birth isn't it? It needed "inputs" and "encouragement"? So it could not have been a spontaneous and majority trend!

It is extremely naive to cite post successful violent campaign and subsequent legitimization and thereby increased political and public prestige - electoral success, as an indication of popular support before the start of the violent movement.

Most electoral indicators before the Partition elections in India did not clearly indicate overwhelming "mass" support for ML violent agenda, but post violence and success - suppory obviously increased.

[Arjun]

IMO, terrorism, ie, random attacks by groups/individuals on target either to spread panic or with the aim of liquidating key individuals is one aspect of the threat...Insurgency, which is an armed revolt by group(s) on the authority of the state in a region or across a few regions, and often has a degree of "mass support", is the second aspect..

Quit the sophistry.... The only distinction I understand is of those groups that target civilians and those that don't. Both Naxals as well the two NE-Christian organizations (NSCN & NLFT) have targeted civilians - and hence are very much terrorist organizations. Further NLFT is proscribed as a 'terrorist organization' in Indian government records, and has been included by the US based 'National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism' as one of the ten most active terrorist groups in the world.

Its a bit naive to call all insurgent groups in the NE as "christian" outfit BTW - ULFA is hardly christian...Even the christian outfits like NSCN (IM) dont harp on the religiosity as a factor...There are too many cometing tribal groups there for a religion to be an over-rising variable, even if it is used at times by some groups..

Did I call ALL insurgent groups in NE as Christian ?...please go back and read again. I am specifically referring to NSCN and NLFT. And as for your claim that NSCN does not harp on religiosity as a factor, this is the Nth time you have been blatantly wrong with facts - I guess such trivial things as being correct with your facts is not a consideration for you?

NSCN- please do some reading. The NSCN explicitly calls for establishing a Socialist "Christian" state in the areas inhabited by the Naga people. Its manifesto is based on a principle that it calls 'Nagaland for Christ’.

NLFT- This organization has been accused of forcefully converting people to Christianity.The state government reports that the Baptist Church of Tripura supplies arms and gives financial support to the NLFT. The Church is also reported to encourage the NLFT to murder Hindus, particularly infants. NLFT has also declared a ban against Hindus celebrating Durga Puja and other Hindu festivals.

[brihaspati]

http://www.assamtimes.org/social/3112.html
This is a 1.5 year old news item. Can anyone give a measure of the "popularity/mass support" level of this group at this stage? However, Hmar, indeed as pointed out by one comment after the blog post, are distributed all around the place. Or what political countermove to which strong and growing political movement such group could be put up?

The formation of a Congress-led government in Mizoram has brought a number of problems for the people of the neighboring state of Assam.

The Bhuvan Pahar, one of the most holy places in Barak valley of Assam has come under the threat of miscreants for last two months... Gun totting members of a newly formed militant organization, namely, Manmasi National Christian Army (MNCA), comprising about fifteen rebels, has been forcing the Hindu residents of Bhuvan Pahar, under the threat of gun to convert to Christianity.

This came to the notice of Sonai police station, which along with the 5th Assam Rifles, conducted a search operation, which led to the arrest of 13 miscreants, including their commander-in-chief. Two SBBL guns and a country made pistol along with sufficient quantity of ammunition were seized from their possession. All the miscreants were handed over to Sonai police for further investigation. These groups of miscreants dressed in black with a red cross on their back along with arms enter from Tipaimukh area through Barak River by boat and mount over Bhuvan Pahar. They threaten and ask the Hindu people of Tezpur village, including the priest of the Hindu temple to convert into Christianity.

The problem began when Hmar miscreants stated themselves to be the members of Manmasi National Christian Army and had started putting pressure on the Hindu residents of Bhuvan Pahar to become Christian. The local residents informed that Manmasi National Christian Army cadres had painted Cross symbol on the wall of the temples with their blood.

Sources further said that the pressure from the Hmar militants began about two months ago, when the Congress-led government by Lalthanhwala came into power in the state of Mizoram. At least seven to eight Hmar youths were frequently visiting Bhuvan Pahar, which had nearly 700 Hindu people as well as eight Hindu temples. These youths approached with gun in one hand and the Bible in the other. They had a meeting with the villagers in Tezpur village on the Bhuvan Pahar and distributed Bible among them. They had also built on a Church in Tezpur village.