Sri wrote:Could this trend also be because of long term survival tactics of PA. Organisational behaviors for survival? PA as we know like any other organisation has a survivability syndrome. May be PA thinks in long term the Land Lords / Aristocratic Pakistan will lose power and the extremist will secure absolute power. Hence slowly they are moving to their camp and hedging the bets against the current political elites?
Sri, what you are saying is a top-down approach. What I outlined was a bottom-up approach. Both are possible. Again, let me reiterate that we tend to view the PA as a monolithic unit with a central command. That is a traditional view but this is no longer the case, IMO, except when Pakistan declared a war against India and mobilization happened. Today, there is (and will be growing) anarchy while PA pretends everything is perfect. Then, PA might revert to its traditional line of command. However, the current situation is an internal purging of men and ideology that is happening, sometimes silently and at other times violently. The PA is a microcosm of the Pakistani society itself and reflects it. The society is being torn apart. In an earlier post, I had
likened the current affairs as the Fourth Jihad. I therefore believe that rather than as a grand strategy by the Generals of the PA, the churning comes from the lower levels. Within the society itself, a certain flavour of Islam is gaining ground and again that is what should happen (and is happening) within the PA as well.
If the political winds change and if it does transpire that that RAPEs are indeed going to hold sway, PA will adjust accordingly.
Often, the question that is asked is 'Why haven't the right-wing religio political parties of Pakistan not dominated the National Assembly if Pakistan is indeed a theocratic state ?'. The RAPEs conveniently use this question to depict Pakistan as a moderate, enlightened Muslim country. The truth of course is different, as we all know. There are several reasons why righ-wing religious parties never won a large number of seats. We will not get into that here. However, that does not mean either they lack power to influence the people decisively in religious matter or make the government of the day bend to their diktats. Even in recent times, we have seen how a powerful General Musharraf had to beat hasty retreats in madrasseh reforms, syllabus reforms or even removing the 'Religion' column from the passport. So, we have to divorce the 'political wind' from the 'religious wind' in Pakistan. The latter is gaining strength and is becoming a gale that will sweep away everything in its path. Islam is not against Aristocrats & Landowners. RAPEs, as a class, will continue even after Pakistan gets completely Talibanized except that they will be circumspect in some of their public behaviour. But, the PA will change entirely and will assume the role of the Janissary. However, since the Taliban are subscribers to the primordial thought process, the new Janissary will behave more like the Kharrajis. Today, the 'high church' of the Pakistani Army is led by such Generals as Hamid Gul & Mirza Aslam Beg. Kiyani & Co do not even qualify as 'low church'. But, Gul & Beg types are not the likes that we will see when the Fourth Jihad comes to a successful end. Gul & Beg, while Islamists themselves, do not measure up to what the end result will throw up as Generals. Gul & Beg will be as dispensable as Col. Imam (yet to happen) and Khwaja. Gul & Beg will be as dispensable as Col. Imam (yet to happen) and Khwaja.