Managing Pakistan's failure

[A_Gupta]

I got an interesting write up yesterday in the email... Apparently it's been circulating on the net for a couple of days. Here it is for download... Not sure who the author is, but it has some interesting observations and propositions... Distribute wide and free, as it says a lot of things we on BRF have been talking about for a while.

http://www.2shared.com/document/G_Qr6nt ... nge_P.html

My anti-virus etc. software warns me of a .exe file and so I cancel the download.
Has the site been infected?

[pgbhat]

Can anyone save Pakistan now? ---- Tavleen Singh

There is not much that India can do but it can appeal to President Barack Obama to stop the war in Afghanistan. As long as it continues, Pakistanis will find someone else to blame for their problems. Once the Americans leave, they will have to confront their own demons and in this lies the only faint flicker of hope. In any case, the war in Afghanistan is a meaningless exercise because it is not the Taliban in that country who constitute the real problem but the numberless Taliban type groups in Pakistan. These groups have the support of ordinary Pakistanis because they see them as heroes in what is perceived as a just war to save Pakistan from being destroyed by the United States. When American troops leave, they may see their true colours. So stick to your 2011 deadline President Obama, it could be the only thing left to do.

[JwalaMukhi]

Pakistan was never meant to be. It was na-pak all along. So, what has changed to lament can it be saved now, as if it was saved till now. Pakistan has become less pious these days. It needs pure pious version and stay away from the grip of all the fakes. Where is maulana diesel when one needs?

[JE Menon]

A_Gupta, I don't know. It is a file-sharing site which I've used without problems. Not sure if others had the same problem. I'm pretty well protected, but of course that doesn't say much....

[shiv]

Can anyone save Pakistan now? ---- Tavleen Singh

There is not much that India can do but it can appeal to President Barack Obama to stop the war in Afghanistan. As long as it continues, Pakistanis will find someone else to blame for their problems. Once the Americans leave, they will have to confront their own demons and in this lies the only faint flicker of hope. In any case, the war in Afghanistan is a meaningless exercise because it is not the Taliban in that country who constitute the real problem but the numberless Taliban type groups in Pakistan. These groups have the support of ordinary Pakistanis because they see them as heroes in what is perceived as a just war to save Pakistan from being destroyed by the United States. When American troops leave, they may see their true colours. So stick to your 2011 deadline President Obama, it could be the only thing left to do.

I have left a comment

Madam - In your "moderate" Pakistan of 30 plus years ago a Punjabi general, Ayub Khan said "a blow at the right time and place would make the Hindu run" as he went to war. His son, Gohar actually threatened India with nuclear war. Others, including Hamid Gul and Musharraf have done that. What is so frightening about Islamists getting nuclear weapons?

Ultimately "your kind" the so called "moderates" of Pakistan have to be eliminated, for they have cheered while Islamism was directed against India. That includes Salman Taseer as your son testifies. Now that they are the target they are wailing and you speak for them. No. Let the Islamists taste power and understand that rational nations cannot forever beg other powers for money and arms to fight India.

After all that is all that your "moderate" Pakistani friends did all these decades. Nations don't "collapse". They change. Pakistan won't collapse. It must change.

[JE Menon]

doc where did u leave the comment...? I can't find a place to leave one - nor can i find your comment.

[SSridhar]

JEM, the comments section is at the bottom and nobody's comment has yet appeared. This is what I said:

Ms. Tavleen Singh comes to the right conclusion about India not being in a position to help Pakistan because radical Islam has irreversibly seeped into all parts of the Pakistani society. But, she also makes a startling demand that the Americans must stop the war in Afghanistan and perhaps that would help the situation in Pakistan because the Pakistanis would have nobody else to blame then. For a Pakistan that has survived for 63 years on unremitting and enduring hostility with India on imaginary fears and innovatively invented reasons, it would not be too difficult to invent another reason. As Taliban, Al Qaeda and the Punjabi Taliban have coalesced with a common worldview, it will not be long before the Pakistani Army and its ISI capitulate before it due to internal pressures in the coming years because the Army cannot be any different from the radicalized society. The relentless march towards implosion comes from within Pakistan and it can no longer be stopped.

[JE Menon]

Got it, thanx SS... don't know how I missed that. Here's what I left:

Madam, your article comes to the right conclusion about Pakistan, i.e. that India cannot do much about what is happening there. But their tendency to blame others for their woes continues, and you must acknowledge that the "moderates" who were your friend were moderate only in their social interaction. Did any of those moderates consider the notion of "live and let live" as far as Jammu & Kashmir was concerned? I think a minority may have, if that. Otherwise, reasonably monied society is always moderate.

As for your claim that "it goes without saying that an imploding Pakistan is not in India's interest", I beg to differ. How so? Has a wealthy (or at least wealthier per capita) Pakistani state ever been benign as far as India was concerned? And how is an imploding Pakistan going to negatively impact on India, EXACTLY? What are the mullah's going to do? Nuke us? This is what the generals are threatening even now... haven't you listened to Hamid Gul or Aslam Beg?

[arun]

X Posted from the Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan thread.

Harold Gould, Visiting Scholar in the Center for South Asian Studies at the University of Virginia, in an article titled “A disintegrating Pakistan: Choices for US and India” that is bound to cause takleef in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan :

A disintegrating Pakistan: Choices for US and India

2011-01-16 09:00:00
Last Updated: 2011-01-16 09:42:51

New Delhi: As Pakistan sinks steadily into the pit of political oblivion .........................

Islamic fanaticism, conjoined with military authoritarianism, has ripped Pakistan to shreds and soon will provoke its political disintegration. What alternative is left for US, NATO and Indian strategic policy in the face of a Pakistani political meltdown?

In my opinion, the best option is what I would call strategic consolidation. That is, India, the US and its allies, must 'step aside', let the holocaust happen, and try to contain in every way possible its spread beyond Pakistan's borders and the Pashtun region now dominated by the Taliban.

As the dimensions and ramifications of the 'implosion' become apparent, the US, NATO and India can deploy their military and diplomatic resources in whatever manner they deem necessary and possible to contain, ameliorate and mediate the undoubtedly pervasive violence that will ensue and must run its course. ..........................

Sify

[RajeshA]

Some notes on Pakistani's failure to think straight!

Published on Jan 13, 2010
By Ammar Rashid
Moral medievalism and the state

I believe that this middle class ‘morality of xenophobia’ results from a confluence of the historical memory and logic of the Pakistani state with modern, information-age capitalism. As denizens of the information age, the educated middle classes in Pakistan have been, to varying degrees, exposed to much of what may be called global popular culture in all its post-modern glory. The multiplicity of narratives on offer in this age of borderless information and entertainment has, like the rest of the world, exacerbated the erosion of traditional (in our case Islamic) conceptions of ‘individual’ morality for the middle class, which has already been set in place by the growth of urban capitalism. For them, there is now an ever-increasing access and exposure to alternative modes of rationalisation for individual behavioural choices due to the nature and proliferation of global media.

However, the internalisation of these alternative models of individual behaviour by our middle class is accompanied by a countervailing trend — the continued ideational retention of Islamic conceptions of individual morality that remain embedded in the middle class psyche because of social surroundings, education and upbringing. This ideational retention is further reinforced by the siege mentality engendered by unending informational access to the global and regional military developments of the past decade. This ideological contradiction breeds an unconsciously perceived ‘moral deficit’ within this class, which then demands fulfilment. However, as choice regarding individual moral activity remains constrained by the material realities and socio-economic compulsions of the middle class (i.e. keeping up with the Maliks and the need to stay ‘modern’), the contradiction is then sought to be resolved through another domain — the domain of public or collective morality. Which brings us to the state narrative in Pakistan.

Public morality can exist in many forms, expressions and narratives. In Pakistan, however, the very nature of the state necessitates and perpetuates a particularly exclusivist conception of public morality rooted in its history. The origin of Pakistani statehood was not based on the acceptance of a plurality of opinions and identities. It was not based on the acceptance of the existence of multiple narratives of marginalisation. It was not an origin cognisant of the possibilities of its existence, creating and perpetuating further forms of exploitation and oppression. One speech in the English language to a constituent assembly of landlords and opportunists, it must be said, does not make a movement emancipatory.

The origin of Pakistani statehood was based rather on the convoluted, albeit eloquent, articulation of the supremacy of the moral position of a particular religious identity over others. It is that logic, which has guided the statecraft of its unrepresentative office bearers, the uniformed guardians of the citadel of Islam, for over 60 years, with its results now laid bare in their entirety. It is that logic that has prevented any alternative, more inclusive narrative of public morality to take root in society’s ideational spheres.

It is this very logic of Pakistani statehood that the educated middle class, reeling from the contradictions of its perceived individual moral deficits, is now regurgitating in its support for the murderer Qadri. The supposedly benign nationalist narrative of this state’s origins has transmogrified in the information age into the rabidly exclusionary and xenophobic public morality that the educated middle classes, with their imbibed historical memory, now espouse with zeal.

[RamaY]

I got an interesting write up yesterday in the email... Apparently it's been circulating on the net for a couple of days. Here it is for download... Not sure who the author is, but it has some interesting observations and propositions... Distribute wide and free, as it says a lot of things we on BRF have been talking about for a while.

http://www.2shared.com/document/G_Qr6nt ... nge_P.html

My anti-virus etc. software warns me of a .exe file and so I cancel the download.
Has the site been infected?

Nope. It shows the big red download button in the middle of the page.. ignore it and go down to the bottom where you see a small download link for the real file

[brihaspati]

One of the subtle but fallacious logic that is developed from the supposed implosion of PaK - even in those willing to recognize it as having to do with the theocratic foundations of the Paki state- is that

(1) the religion behind the theocracy is not to blame for its social degeneration
(2) or, that any state that founds itself on some belief system/theology/religion will ultimately disintegrate or socially degenerate like Pak

It could be self-deception or comfort clauses to fit the reality fo disintegration with the ideological commitment or hope that the state did not fail to start with.

On the other hand, then it is defense of the theology by separating it from apparent failure.

But the more dangerous and subverting idea lies in the second point that if the particularity of "Islam" itself could somehow be detached from the association of a failing Pak theocratic state, then the Paki degeneration could be used as a tool to prevent or attack ideological foundations of other states - current or the future. This means it will then become a tool to use against any other future claims of a state being founded on cultural primacies. It then applies to [after such a reconstruction and representation] Israel, or any hoped for SD based staet in India in the future.

The Pakiphily is headed towards the logic that if Pak goes down it must also take down with it, what Pak sees as the only apparently consistent ideological opponents- Judaism and SD, its predominant obsessions - Judaic Israel and Hindu India.

[A_Gupta]

RamaY, tx!

[JE Menon]

Shiv's comment has appeared on Tavleen Singh's article. So far SSridhar's and mine have not been published.

http://www.indianexpress.com/comments/c ... ow/738041/

[ramana]

I think its time to analyze TSP using a game theory tools.

The main actors are
TSPA
PPP
PML
MQM (regional outfit)
ANP(regional outfit)
Baloch opposition
Islamist Mullahs
Pakiban( TTP etc.)
Khyber-Paktunwa society
Sindh society
Pakjab society
TSPA Jihadis(Let, etc)
US
PRC
India

We need to make estimates of their salience and thier stance.

The outcomes
1. TSP retains current state
2. TSP becomes moderate state with less emphasis on religion
3. TSP becomes more Islamist state with jihadis in power
4. TSP collapses into breakaway provinces

[RamaY]

^ What about KSA?

Who would prefer the TSP collapse in above actor list?

[ramana]

They will have indirect influence and can only side with some of the actors. Their support won't sway the otucome. It will support the outcome. need your help.

[Narad]

KSA's interference would most certainly be via the Islamist Mullahs and/or the PML N/Q

Garu, I think Russia is an important player in this matrix and there could be some interesting aspects. Iran could potentially play Russia's proxy in the region.

Outcomes 1 and 2 seem improbable. Outcome 3 although possible is most certainly not going to last long. We can see some very proactive measures from USA+Israel+EU if and when it happens. Outcome 4 is the most reasonable and logical fallout that may happen.

[RamaY]

self-deleted

[RamaY]

self-deleted

[ramana]

Lets take this off line.

[RajeshA]

Published on Jan 18, 2011
Killing of newborn babies on rise: Daily Times

* Edhi Foundation manager says number of dead infants found last year have gone up to 1,210 from 890 in 2008 and 999 in 2009

KARACHI: The bodies of two newborn babies were given their final bath before they were buried in Karachi, after they were discovered in the city’s garbage dumps.

“They can only have been one or two days old,” said volunteer worker Muhammad Saleem, pointing at the two small corpses being gently washed by his colleagues at a charity’s morgue.

Infanticide, a crime in Pakistan is on the rise. More than 1,000 infants – most of them girls – were killed or abandoned to die in the country last year, according to conservative estimates by the Edhi Foundation, a charity working to reverse the grim trend.

The infanticide figures are collected only from Pakistan’s main cities, leaving out huge swathes of the rural areas, and the charity says that in December alone, it found 40 dead babies left in garbage dumps and sewers.

The number of dead infants found last year – 1,210 – was up from 890 in 2008 and 999 in 2009, said Edhi Foundation Manager in Karachi, Anwar Kazmi.

Kazmi recounts the discovery of the burnt body of a six-day-old infant who had been strangled. Another child was found on the steps of a mosque having been stoned to death on the orders of an imam who has since disappeared, he said.

“Do not murder, lay them here,” reads a sign hanging outside the charity’s Karachi base where it has left cradles in the hope that parents will abandon their unwanted children there, instead of leaving them to die.

“People leave these children mostly because they think they are illegitimate, but they are as innocent and loveable as all human beings,” says the charity’s founder, well-known humanitarian Abdul Sattar Edhi.

Most children found are less than a week old.

Khair Mohammad, 65, works as a watchman in the charity’s vast graveyard in the city outskirts. It is dotted with tiny unnamed graves.

“We acquired this land to bury children after another plot was filled with hundreds of bodies,” he said.

The death toll is far worse among girls, says manager Kazmi, with nine out of ten dead babies the charity finds being female.

“The number of infanticides of girls has substantially increased,” Kazmi said, a rise attributed to increased poverty across the country.

Girls are seen by many Pakistanis as a greater economic burden as most women are not permitted to work and are considered to be the financial responsibility of their fathers, and later their husbands.

A Pakistani family can be forced to raise more than one million rupees to marry their daughter off.

Edhi said that up to 200 babies are left in its 400 cradles nationwide each year and that it handles thousands of requests for adoption by childless couples.Abortion is prohibited in Islam, except when the mother’s life is at risk from her pregnancy, but advocates say that legalisation would reduce infanticide and save mothers from potentially fatal back-street terminations.

According to the country’s law, anyone found to have abandoned an infant could be jailed for seven years, while anyone guilty of secretly burying a child can be imprisoned for two years. Murder is punishable with life imprisonment.

But crimes of infanticide are rarely prosecuted.

“The majority of police stations do not register cases of infanticide, let alone launch investigations into them,” said lawyer Abdul Rasheed.

Expect more infanticide as Pakistan fails. Considering that most of the dead may be girls, also expect a very skewed gender ratio in Pakistan in favor of men. Should it skew too much, expect the birth rate to dive in Pakistan in the long term.

[ramana]

X-posting:

Maybe to make the Paki tangle with the Pakiban/bad Taliban, US should say via Wikipees (looks authentic na!) that they are Indian agents. That would make the Paki berserk and fight them and get mauled!

Ramana, the PA and political leadership know pretty well that the Wahhabandi Pakiban are completely indigenous, as TFTA as any other mard and have nothing to do with the SDREs. This natakbazi of RAW agents etc. is to prevent the berelvi folk from going en masse the Wahabandi way. So, they try this tactic of discrediting the purer and more pious sons of the Punjabi (night)soil. If the Americans confirm the Indian connection, then that will only strengthen the PA. The PA will still not take any action against the Pakiban because they know they will get mauled or there will be mutiny or both within the PA units (ranks & officers alike) etc.

and

Pak's identity crisis has reached boiling point.I mentioned that last summer I saw the so-called "Pak" exhibition in Paris at the Guimet Museum (specialising in Asian art).There was not a farthing's worth of "Paki" content in it,that is of the Pak we know of too well.It was all ancient Gandhara period Buddhist and Hindu sculpture and art,in other words entirely "Indian". Paki culture today,or absence of it,is that of the Taliban (Bamiyan Buddhas destruction) or "IED" variety and the Moghul dancing girls and their gyrations have been replaced by jehadi suicide bombers and their dances of death.

Therefore,with a failed identity,Jinnah's liberal Islamic state he dreamt of akin to Turkey,has turned into a nightmare of hellish proportions,a failed state whose security of its leaders is not worth the survival time of a dog's dinner before a pack of hungry curs,thus the countdown of Pak's disintegration has begun.Only Dr."Hu" (pun intended) and Uncle Sam are keeping the monster alive.Thus far India's policy towards Pak has been one of almost toal accomodation and compromise in the interests of "good neighbourly relations".Well knowing Pak's inevitable destiny,we must now abandon indifference to it and become intensely pro-active so that when the balloon goes up and the Paki state collapses,we must be able to act with speed before the Chinese and Americans start their salvage attempts to shore up the rotting edifice or try and squat in the sub-continent permanently.India must reclaim its lost territory of POK and elsewhere when the Paki state is in its final death throes.

and

In that case why not convince the Wahabandi Pakiban, the PA is sold out to the Indians( they already suspect them of being sold out to US!) and not doing enough and go after them. The stalemate is broken only when the PA meets its nemesis.

Absolutely. The PA meets its nemesis either by being thoroughly defeated by the Pakiban or by the IA or due to mutiny internally. Nothing else can and will work. The Pakiban also know the truth that the PA is sold out *only* to the Americans. The Pakiban are revising their strategy and hence the apparent lull (by their standards). It is only a matter of time, I guess.

This clash is needed for unkil to takeaway the nooks. Now you see my interest in this.

[shiv]

cross posting my own post, with added comments

Rolling Back the Posin in Pakistan - Nirupama Subramanian in The Hindu

While I generally like and approve of Nirumapa Subramanyam's views she is wrong here (quote is at bottom)

She asks that the military should come out against the sort of intolerance that Taseer's killing exposes and argues that the "establishment" would then be able to clean up.

As I see it Pakistan's military is split. "Split" not as in two factions about to get at each other's throats but its choices are bad enough for it to do nothing.

If the Paki army supports the Westernized RAPE - the rank and file, from which Taseers killer came, will empty clips into the jernails who do that.

If the Paki army supports the Islamists openly (rather than pretending to be opposed to them), US aid will dry up and the risk of direct intervention in Pakistan increases.

The best "prayer" that the Paki army and the "establishment" who have always served as a "moderate front" for the Paki army can offer is to ask for
1) Allah please remove the Americans from Afghanistan so we can declare victory
2) Allah please remove Indians from Cashmere so we can declare victory
3) If we can declare victory our own yahoos will not bay for our blood and we can give them one more taqiya speech and say "OK we have won everything. Now is the time to declare taqiya and pretend to be moderate to get more aid"

The sooner Nirupama Subramaniam ans the erst of teh world realises that this is what is happening in Pakistan, the faster they will stop hoping for magical means by which status quo can be maintained.

But as the primary arbiter of national affairs in Pakistan, it is the army alone that is equipped to put up an effective political challenge to extremism. For one, it could come out with a strong condemnation of the killing of Salman Taseer, which it has not done so far. It could declare its whole-hearted backing to any attempt by the political government to make changes to laws that encourage extremism and religious intolerance. It could also openly come out in favour of changing the school curriculum and for reforms in the madrassa education systems.

Such steps would send strong signals through the establishment for a clean-up, and to the rest of the nation. Of course, it would mean several changes in the Army's own thinking. It would mean that the Pakistan Army stops looking at the Islamists as an ally. That, in turn, would mean a serious rethink by the army on its own role in Pakistan and, by extension, it would imply a rethink of its India-centric worldview.

Which RAPE or Army jernail in Pakistan, having spent decades opposing India on totally false and fabricated grounds can now have the guts to turn around and say "We need a rapprochement with India. India has not been doing all those things to Muslims that we have accused them of doing"

If either a RAPE or Paki army type says that they will soon absorb the contents of an AK-47 magazine. They have to save their own skins by continuing to oppose India. There is no escape.

As long as the Paki elite and RAPE continue to wield influence theer can be no peace between India and Pakistan. Let the Islamists come to power. they will then discover that making war with India throws up the same problems that RAPE and army faced all these decades. Only, the RAPE and army got money and arms from the US for that. Unless the islamists can suck up to the US and fight themselves, they will get zilch.

Only then will they be able to open their miniscule minds and ask how long animosity with India can last minus arms and alms.

[Samudragupta]

Isn't it very possible that the Islamists Paki if comes to power will demand Chauth from all its neighbours and considering the merchantile mentality of the Indians it is highly possible that they will succumb to the pressure.
In case of the iranians it is surely the card of united Ummah, in case of Afghanistan peace and in case of Hu land it will be Uighurs and the route to Indian ocean, so an Islamists Pakistan actually makes much more sense than the RAPE pakistan.

[shiv]

Isn't it very possible that the Islamists Paki if comes to power will demand ...

From this part of your statement can I take it that you believe that the people who have been in power in Pakistan so far have behaved like moderates so far and not like you expect Islamists (in power) to behave in future?

If my statement is correct could you please explain to my deeply ignorant mind what you think it is about the Paki governments of the last 60 years (or 30 years if you like) that appears "moderate" and not Islamist to you?

Phew! This is a viewpoint about Pakistan that is pushed by America and supported by the Paki elite and a whole lot of Indian swallow it hook line and sinker. And you sir appear to be one of them

[RamaY]

cross posting my own post, with added comments

Rolling Back the Posin in Pakistan - Nirupama Subramanian in The Hindu

Shiv ji

I think Nirupama ji is pushing the envelop. Yes, PA did not make any statement on Taseer's killing. Yes, any statement against that killing would put the generals at the mercy of Taseer's killers and so on.

By saying what she said, Nirupama S is openly drawing the 2nd conclusion, that is

If the Paki army supports the Islamists openly (rather than pretending to be opposed to them), US aid will dry up and the risk of direct intervention in Pakistan increases.

Not that USA will suddenly gets illuminated, but hey there is nothing wrong in hoping right?

[Samudragupta]

Samudragupta wrote:
Isn't it very possible that the Islamists Paki if comes to power will demand ...


From this part of your statement can I take it that you believe that the people who have been in power in Pakistan so far have behaved like moderates so far and not like you expect Islamists (in power) to behave in future?

Shivji,

My answer to your above point is deception, the Paki leadership right from the time of Jinnah have used the simple technique and guided by their unique geo-political position to guide the nation's policy, the result that we are seeing today is only the culmination of the policy, the presence of FSU in the borders only hastened the same process 30 years back.

If my statement is correct could you please explain to my deeply ignorant mind what you think it is about the Paki governments of the last 60 years (or 30 years if you like) that appears "moderate" and not Islamist to you?

Moderate is the relative term here moderate wrt what/whom and is completely wrong to describe the basic traits of the leadership. I can only think of one polite term ...opportunist,from the POV of India there is no difference between the so called moderates and the Islamists, offcourse I am not sure abt Asma Jehangir

Phew! This is a viewpoint about Pakistan that is pushed by America and supported by the Paki elite and a whole lot of Indian swallow it hook line and sinker. And you sir appear to be one of them

Shivji,
I am not the one who beleives in this line,however the point which i want to convey is that an Islamists Pakistan may not necessarily implode but may grow stronger entity considering that now they have the option to blackmail all its neighbour.
So my point is that for the implosion of Paki land, more Islam is the desired condition but this condition alone may not bring the destruction, because once the Ideological faultline is rooted out the ethinic faultline does not stand a chance after some time in the face of the Islamists onslaught.

[shiv]

I am not the one who beleives in this line,however the point which i want to convey is that an Islamists Pakistan may not necessarily implode but may grow stronger entity considering that now they have the option to blackmail all its neighbour.
So my point is that for the implosion of Paki land, more Islam is the desired condition but this condition alone may not bring the destruction, because once the Ideological faultline is rooted out the ethinic faultline does not stand a chance after some time in the face of the Islamists onslaught.

I see a lot of words thrown about in the media being used by seemingly knowledgeable, but in reality irresponsible or tongue-tied "Pakistan experts" and you seem to have picked up one of those words.

Countries do not collapse or implode. Those are nonsense words that are used to describe nations that are heading towards failure over many social, developmental, political and governance related parameters and do not carry the right meaning.

The happiest thing for me if Islamists take over is that Pakistan's richest and most loyal sponsor - the USA will be an enemy of those Islamists. Another point that causes me extreme satisfaction is that Pakistan's nuclear weapons, hitherto reserved for India and India alone will now be set aside for assorted kafirs, including the west. A Pakistan that could not bring India down with US and Chinese help is not going to do much better with Islamist in charge and no US help and only the pork eating Chinese to support them.

The pretend moderates that Ayub Khan and Salman Taseer represented got freebies from the US while they made their people slave for the US. Those people are now changing. May they gain power. We can do business with them. The Salman Taseers have lied and told them that Hindu India ill treats Muslims. They will find out the truth when US money stops coming in after the Paki elite stop licking US asses.

[ramana]

Somnath, Amit .Shyamd and Hari Seldon,
Eonomic/Finance gurus I have a question and feasibility request.

Can we setup an options market on
"TSP collapse futures_2014"
at a sutiable site to monitor the world opinion/consensus? What I am thinking is there are options markets on various subjects like BO vs McCain election, Martha Stewart sentencing etc at InTrade.com type of sites.

So can you guys explore how this can be setup at such sites or alternately at one of the blogs.

PS: If anyone else can do this please accept my ignorance of your capabilities and jump right in!

[Maram]

I am not the one who beleives in this line,however the point which i want to convey is that an Islamists Pakistan may not necessarily implode but may grow stronger entity considering that now they have the option to blackmail all its neighbour.
So my point is that for the implosion of Paki land, more Islam is the desired condition but this condition alone may not bring the destruction, because once the Ideological faultline is rooted out the ethinic faultline does not stand a chance after some time in the face of the Islamists onslaught.

I see a lot of words thrown about in the media being used by seemingly knowledgeable, but in reality irresponsible or tongue-tied "Pakistan experts" and you seem to have picked up one of those words.

Countries do not collapse or implode. Those are nonsense words that are used to describe nations that are heading towards failure over many social, developmental, political and governance related parameters and do not carry the right meaning.

The happiest thing for me if Islamists take over is that Pakistan's richest and most loyal sponsor - the USA will be an enemy of those Islamists. Another point that causes me extreme satisfaction is that Pakistan's nuclear weapons, hitherto reserved for India and India alone will now be set aside for assorted kafirs, including the west. A Pakistan that could not bring India down with US and Chinese help is not going to do much better with Islamist in charge and no US help and only the pork eating Chinese to support them.

The pretend moderates that Ayub Khan and Salman Taseer represented got freebies from the US while they made their people slave for the US. Those people are now changing. May they gain power. We can do business with them. The Salman Taseers have lied and told them that Hindu India ill treats Muslims. They will find out the truth when US money stops coming in after the Paki elite stop licking US asses.

Whether Amir Khan likes it or not, this is what will eventually happen. I also pray that the islamist radical remember the uigyhur brothers too! As the threats becomes diversified, the esponse will be substantial, diversified and more importantly lessens risks to India.

Pre- 9/11,Most training camps were aimed at Kashmir. Since then the camps have trained terrorists for eyeraq,afghanistan, Pakisatan along with India. So actually, the threat has diversified and so reduced(atleast a little bit) to India ( the terrorists are concentrating on other countries and other countries are acting on these terrorists too)...

So, Shivji is righting in wantting Islamists in Power in Pakistan. That is a sure way for destruction of them . "Vinasha kaale vipareetha Buddi"...Pakisatan is going down the toilet and as seekers of peace, we should wish and pray, it happens fast!
As they go down the toilet, it becomes difficult for appeasers to continue appeasing Pakisatan(In US, India and other countries)

[RamaY]

^ Ramanagaru,

I went there. We can/should do that. I would call it "Overt Talibanization of Pakistan before 2014".

[ramana]

Make it more catchy and succint to get the idea.

Also would like somnath and amit to weigh in.

Lets work together.

Ideally I would like the option to be setup and then discussed in a blog by SSridhar so there is attention and interpretation of the price moves.

[ramana]

X-post another brilliant idea....

Folks I am looking for some ideas - especially photos, preferably videos to prove the everlasting and longstanding pakistani -China friendship. I need to find videos about attitudes to Pork in Pakistan and a few chinese videos of pork dishes being cooked.

I know that Pakistanis who are strict when it comes to blasphemy etc are easy when it comes to Chinese pork. I know they don't mind pork. Islam and Quran be damned.

[RamaY]

Make it more catchy and succint to get the idea.

Also would like somnath and amit to weigh in.

Lets work together.

Ideally I would like the option to be setup and then discussed in a blog by SSridhar so there is attention and interpretation of the price moves.

That would be great. The intrade.com website has a forum too. So there are many options.

[Prem]

The destiny of India and Pakistan is interlinked. The arrival of rich and powerful India automatically nulify all Pakistan stands for in day to day existence. Poak Houndini act will conincide with the Phoenix like rise of Indic somewhere between Dec 16 2022 -Marc16-2023,with the exception few days before or after.

[ramana]

Looks like Pakis are already betting on Zardari's exit at InTrade. However no movement!

[RajeshA]

The destiny of India and Pakistan is interlinked. The arrival of rich and powerful India automatically nulify all Pakistan stands for in day to day existence. Poak Houndini act will conincide with the Phoenix like rise of Indic somewhere between Dec 16 2022 -Marc16-2023,with the exception few days before or after.

Prem ji,
care to take me along for a ride in your "Back to the Future" DeLorean DMC-12 Car.

[somnath]

Somnath, Amit .Shyamd and Hari Seldon,
Eonomic/Finance gurus I have a question and feasibility request.

Can we setup an options market on
"TSP collapse futures_2014"
at a sutiable site to monitor the world opinion/consensus? What I am thinking is there are options markets on various subjects like BO vs McCain election, Martha Stewart sentencing etc at InTrade.com type of sites.

So can you guys explore how this can be setup at such sites or alternately at one of the blogs.

PS: If anyone else can do this please accept my ignorance of your capabilities and jump right in!

Can be set up..Though we need to be a bit more precise on what constitutes "collapse"...Like the definition of "peace", for Pak (to be fair for all states) the definition of "collapse" is a bit nebulous...A lot of people will describe the status quo as collapse...

Random thoughts on making this precise - and putting in variables:

1. Chances of Pakistan defaulting on its sovereign debt obligations..Good news is that this is a "market traded" variable - so we can get daily updates...Currently, the 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads on Pak are about 840 basis points (or 8.42%) over the swap rate. Our "option model" can be whether the CDS spread will expand to (say) 15% in 5 years.

2. Credit Rating - again, this indicates the credit-wortniness of the sovereign. Current S&P rating is B-, one notch above CCC. We can build in a probability of Pak going down to CC (which is when the "probability of default" approaches 100%). To be honest, #1 is a better measure these days than #2.

3. Chances of a "division" of the country. Most likely around the Durand Line, and while the consequences of that event would be unpredictable, gven semi official utterances in the US around that, its a variable that can be "bid for"..

4. Event of a Paki nuke landing up with the Taliban/AQ types..Again, a plausible event, and can be bid for..

5. A "colonel coup" event - somewhat akin to what we have seen in Africa/ME, and in its early days unsuccessful efforts in Pak as well..Lower officers mounting a successful coup against the general corps..

There can be a few more, just to make the definition of "colapse" a bit watertight for people to form a view..

In case we have a workable model, we can even try hosting it on an auction/gaming/contest website like "contest to win"..There, people can put in their own money to bid - will make the impact a bit more "real"..

[ramana]

How about a mix of them so 'investor' can speculate on their areas of interest?

Intrade has a series of Zardari's exit paced at one year intervals.