MRCA Discussion - October 2, 2010

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 18 Jan 2011 08:36

Well, it was clear a long time ago. If the MiGs had to be stopped from winning via v.low prices (L1) tender, the only way forward was to get them out before bid evaluations started on whatever technical premise possible. It was rather obvious that the IAF never wanted this bird - from Tyagi's comment re. it being "khoka" to the general lack of excitement towards the various changes tried by MiG. The fate was sealed when MiG was given the token 29 K orders, and the $ 30 billion Pakfa deal signed. I don't think the Solah ever had a chance.

Now it all comes down to the two Ecanards imho - Tiffy and Rafale. I believe the M2k-5 deal is hung up to a large extent due to this for a variety of reasons. Right now, the game is Dassault's to lose imho - if they lose some of their stiffnecked attitude, and are willing to bend a bit, there should be ample rewards. The Tiffy needs to develop more - get a working AESA, Meteor and lots of A2G ability to push the Rafale out. But they may clinch it if they are more willing to work (or come across less stiff). The advent of the J20 might help the big boys as against the others (although this might work both ways as explained below):

The Shornet and Gripen have an outside shot. The Shornet (IF) the US really sweetens the pot and dumps all the tech transfer difficulties/high handedness (not happening, however, other rewards will be in the offing). The Gripen has a better chance imho because of:
1) IAF's seeming lacklustre acceptance of Tejas, they may want to hedge via Gripen NG - 140 Tejas (and if it is not to their satisfaction) add 200 Gripen in time (it is cheap enough to be afforded in such numbers)
2) Common engine/role ala Tejas II. In fact Saab has been v.eager to help (read: increase common features between the two birds).
3) Much cheaper than the heavies (great possibility of being L1).
4) With the J20 looming on the horlzon, perhpas the powers that be might decide that the best MRCA (tiffy/rafffles/bug) are going to come up rather short, might as well abort and invest in Pakfa/AMCA.

CM

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 18 Jan 2011 08:49

CM saab, the mere mentioning of lackluster acceptance of Tejas is enough to cause a brainstorm. If it doesn't, then consider it is not going to happen for Gripen.

Engine commonality arguments did not work for Mig29, LCA (EJ200 loss) and will sure happen with Gripen as well. This was clearly said when Ej200 lost to Ge414 to LCA unless, it was already decided to go for Gripen or SH having the Ge414 - thus having a point there.

--
BTW, why is this thread becoming a J20 dhoti shiver thread?

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 18 Jan 2011 08:54

Cain Marko wrote:Well, it was clear a long time ago. If the MiGs had to be stopped from winning via v.low prices (L1) tender, the only way forward was to get them out before bid evaluations started on whatever technical premise possible.

The writing became clearer when MiG was given the token 29 K orders, and the $ 30 billion Pakfa deal signed. I don't think the Solah ever had a chance.

Token? 45 may be a small number for the IAF, but it is a huge number for the IN. Besides, the 29K was simply the only aircraft the IN could have bought. It had nothing to do with the MRCA contract or pacifying the Russians.

Now it all come between the Tiffy and Rafale. I believe the M2k-5 deal is hung up to a large extent due to this for a variety of reasons. Right now, the game is Dassault's to lose imho - if they lose some of their stiffnecked attitude, and are willing to bend a bit, there should be ample rewards. The Tiffy needs to develop more - get a working AESA, Meteor and lots of A2G ability to push the Rafale out. But they may clinch it if they are more willing to work (or come across less stiff). The advent of the J20 might help the big boys as against the other (although this might work both ways as explained below):

Well I think the news about the Tiffy and Rafale leading is media hype. I fully expect the FinMin to balk at spending $100 mil a pop on another aircraft in the MKI category. I think the IAF would know this too. There is just no way that either of these two bidders can be L1 unless they rule out all the other contenders, which is unlikely.

The Shornet and Gripen have an outside shot. The Shornet (IF) the US really sweetens the pot and dumps all the tech transfer difficulties/high handedness (not happening). The Gripen has a better chance imho because of:
....

CM

[/quote]

The SH will have price and country of manufacture going against it along with tech transfer issues which, considering that we are dealing with the US are unlikely to be resolved in our favor. I am also skeptical about it clearing the high altitude trials. The Gripen IMO has a much better chance. It has pretty much everything going for it, especially the price and operating cost. Only drawback is that it will be too close to the LCA mk2. But I don't think it should be much of an issue. The IAF is going to be facing an enormous shortfall in the coming years. It can easily accommodate both the Gripen and the LCA in large numbers (the LCA being substantially more in number of course).

As for solah, I doubt the IAF ever seriously considered it. It's just an "also ran". As for the Mig-35, people seem to have ruled it out rather hastily methinks. The russkies might still pull of a surprise, possibly by offering it at an unbeatable price. But then the IAF will know that it will only get what it pays for.

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 18 Jan 2011 09:26

If recent reports are to go by, the Rafale is in trouble in the Brazilian tender as well.. Will it be a case of 'haath aaya par muh na laga' for the Rafale? Their fortunes seem to have gone with Sarkozy. The new prez wants to start afresh with strategic alignment and leverage a priority.. Also, looks like (SUPPOSEDLY) the US are ready to bend on ToT to bag the tender..

Exclusive: Rousseff "starting over" in Brazil jets tender

New Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has decided to delay awarding a multi-billion dollar Air Force jet contract and reevaluate the finalists' bids, in a move that could signal a realignment of Brazil's strategic and defense alliances

In a sign that Boeing is still in the running, Rousseff personally asked U.S. senators visiting Brasilia last week for additional technology transfer guarantees from the U.S. Congress to bolster the Boeing bid

Each of the offers has strengths and weaknesses. Dassault's bid offers good technology transfers but carries a high price tag, officials have said. Saab's bid could be held back by the perception that Sweden offers a less prestigious strategic relationship than France or the United States. Meanwhile, there are doubts about technology transfers within the Boeing bid. Political considerations have also weighed. Brazil's relationship with the United States deteriorated in the final years of Lula's presidency, but Rousseff has shown clear signs of wanting to improve bilateral ties.

Rousseff asked U.S. Senator John McCain -- the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, which has jurisdiction over aeronautical issues -- and fellow Republican Senator John Barrasso if the U.S. Congress would be able to provide an additional, formal guarantee of technology transfers in the Boeing bid. "It's relevant that she was the one who raised the subject," one of the sources said, also speaking on condition of anonymity.

McCain told reporters following his meeting with Rousseff that "there is concern about technology transfer." "I intend to go back (to Washington) and make sure that it is very clear -- that both the president of the United States and the Congress of the United States make it clear -- that there will be complete technology transfer if the government of Brazil decides to acquire the F-18," McCain said at the time. Boeing and U.S. officials including Defense Secretary Robert Gates have already provided guarantees regarding technology transfers, but Rousseff may be seeking more generous terms -- or additional promises that could help ease misgivings among senior members of Brazil's armed forces and defense ministry, many of whom have favored the French bid.

One factor that may work in Boeing's favor going forward is a shift in Brazil's relationship with the United States. Lula's close relationship with Iran, and his unsuccessful attempt to mediate an international dispute over that country's nuclear program resulted in a chill in ties between Brasilia and Washington that spilled over into trade. However, advisers say Rousseff is eager to improve relations with Washington, which she sees a potential commercial ally at a time of global financial uncertainty and growing strains with China over Beijing's trade policies.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Jan 2011 11:06

Some devious thoughts.The Russians far preferred the FGFA deal worth three times more than this one.In any case,with the IN buying large numbers of MIG-29Ks,with Russian orders also being considered for their naval needs,MIG's future in the reorganisation of Russian aerospace is not that bleak.The FGFA is going to be the key aircraft in IAF service from the end of this decade upto 2030.Orders as mentioned will be at least 250-300 and comprise 25-30%+ of the IAF's future inventory.If a naval version is developed then the numbers will be even more.Therefore the Russians cannot but help being very pleased with this massive deal and I'm sure that the vodka,champagne and caviar is flowing in copious quantites back in the Sukhoi bureau in Russia.

This now gives the GOI a wonderful opportunity and tactic -if it wants to dispense with the Yanqui birds,by dropping both the F-18 and MIG-35 from the final list.In the final call no one will want the F-16 because of the Paki connection,leaving the field open to the Eurocanards! The US cannot protest too much because the Russians too have been dropped and they've been given lucrative transport orders.This leaves the rest of the contenders to fight it out on merit,price and pressure.I'm not really sure about the F-18 for Brazil.I think that they are trying to use the US offer to bring down the French prices.US TOT without strings is an anachronism.We too must keep it in mind and before our noses when negotiating.One has to watch out for the aftermath of the US "invasion" shortly as it tries to press-gang India into handing over the deal to it.

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 18 Jan 2011 11:51

MBDA pitches Meteor on European MMRCA contenders..

For the Indian Air Force MMRCA missile solutions, MBDA is displaying Meteor, Dual Mode Brimstone, Taurus KEPD 350 and SCALP/Storm Shadow. MBDA is offering them for the three European aircraft options lined up for the IAF’s MMRCA competition, Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon and Gripen.

The Dual Mode Brimstone is MBDA’s most recent developments and a key UK RAF weapon currently being deployed operationally in theatre in conditions not dissimilar to those that the IAF would most likely have to operate in. DMB is the only weapon currently available that can engage fast moving land and sea targets with high precision. Capable of engaging a wide variety of target types and operating safely and effectively in the complex littoral area, DMB offers a major operational advantage in being able to deal with the swarming FIAC (Fast Inshore Attack Craft) threats. The Eurofighter Typhoon equipped with DMB has a distinct advantage over helicopters as it can rapidly confront a threat which could be engaged asymmetrically optimising the effectiveness. Significantly, DMB has been used with the Litening pod designator which is already in service with the IAF.

For the Indian Air Force MMRCA missile solutions, MBDA is displaying Meteor, Dual Mode Brimstone, Taurus KEPD 350 and SCALP/Storm Shadow. MBDA is offering them for the three European aircraft options lined up for the IAF’s MMRCA competition, Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon and Gripen.

http://frontierindia.net/mbda-to-displa ... india-2011

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Jan 2011 16:51

Will the "tail (Meteor)wag the dog"?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Jan 2011 16:54

a decade ago if a short dark guy had walked up to EU and asked for KEPD350 or StormShadow he'd have been laughed out and told that "brown men and dogs not allowed" in the cozy country club.

what a difference a decade makes...

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 18 Jan 2011 17:27

well, they can only protest against any possible scam and not for selecting the a/c. neither the russians nor the yankies can protest. that is not professionalism/check with france

.

mdba: the decade difference was made by our drdo labs, imho.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 18 Jan 2011 17:29

^^^ not just labs
also now we have money and influence
and the west has started warming up to the idea that the dhoti shivering elephant might start trampling common enemies...

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 18 Jan 2011 17:32

hah.. they can only setup kheda.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 18 Jan 2011 22:01

Singha wrote:a decade ago if a short dark guy had walked up to EU and asked for KEPD350 or StormShadow he'd have been laughed out and told that "brown men and dogs not allowed" in the cozy country club.

what a difference a decade makes...

When I walked into MAKO Sim in an airshow, they shut it down. Really!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Jan 2011 22:55

kepd uses engine from williams intl so I dont see that happening. massa probably wants to 'engage' our nirbhay / brahmos folks in endless talks to gauge how much we have progressed and what we are doing via the brahmos umbrella. I dont think GOI will take the bait on this...

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 19 Jan 2011 00:27

chackojoseph wrote:
Singha wrote:a decade ago if a short dark guy had walked up to EU and asked for KEPD350 or StormShadow he'd have been laughed out and told that "brown men and dogs not allowed" in the cozy country club.

what a difference a decade makes...
When I walked into MAKO Sim in an airshow, they shut it down. Really!

And look where the MAKO went !

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 19 Jan 2011 00:41

Got a chance to talk to someone, who worked on Eurofighter project. Few facts, no speculation :
- cut down in development team due to money shortage.
- no member country wants to buy the plane.
- badly requires Indian order to continue, if India plays her cards carefully can get maximum ToT.
- willing to sell plane to anyone

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 19 Jan 2011 02:30

And they goofed up LCA tejas engine deal by really silly business practices.?

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 19 Jan 2011 04:48

SaiK wrote:And they goofed up LCA tejas engine deal by really silly business practices.?

It is the big brother Uncle in the picture.
It wants to control the world market on engine and tech transfer. This is not going to be easy.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Jan 2011 05:03

RKumar wrote:Got a chance to talk to someone, who worked on Eurofighter project. Few facts, no speculation :
- cut down in development team due to money shortage.
- no member country wants to buy the plane.
- badly requires Indian order to continue, if India plays her cards carefully can get maximum ToT.
- willing to sell plane to anyone

That is to be expected.

Nations cannot sustain funding when there is not real need. Same as in Russia.

Besides ToT, I would expect consolidations on the horizon. Perhaps a good opp for India.

andy B · Post by **andy B** » 19 Jan 2011 06:08

Acharya wrote:
SaiK wrote:And they goofed up LCA tejas engine deal by really silly business practices.?
It is the big brother Uncle in the picture.
It wants to control the world market on engine and tech transfer. This is not going to be easy.

I agree with Acharya, IIRC the Germans are the ones spearheading the EF campaign for Yindia. I have had plenty of interaction with Germans over the past few years (and although I am generalising by saying this), its simply too hard to believe that the reason why they lost out is because they didnt get their bid in time!

Even if we take the Germans out of the picture how the eff would a company as big as EADS mess up such a significant contract that too just because they didnt deliver the papers on time!

Khan is really out there to get their fingers into whatever he can in the Indian military (yes I know I sound like Philip)

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 19 Jan 2011 06:18

I disagree. In the sense, are our setup such that khan can ungli to this deep? Besides, for the mere $2b, khan may get more bad names say if they get ragged by our CAG. Now don't tell me even our CAG is dhoti shivering just for saying khan.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Jan 2011 07:12

My impression was that EADS did not cry foul. Or am I missing something?

My recollection is that the first round between the two were not apples and apples. That EADS had to reconstitute.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Jan 2011 08:30

sher khan shut down the german lampyridae stealth plane (looked like a smaller F117) project in late 1980s after it found out. nobody knows with what mix of threats or inducements, but it was shut down.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 19 Jan 2011 09:04

NRao, that is news. do you have a link for that they showed an orange instead?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Jan 2011 11:32

Marten,da!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Jan 2011 12:49

Be sure to bring a Natasha or two along even if the winged birds have stayed home for the winter!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Jan 2011 16:48

Vive la France! Je suis tres 'appy to meet votre belle damsels de Paris! Je suis tres familiare avec Paris et ze damsels du Moulin Rouge et al.Pardonnez-moi atrocious French!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 19 Jan 2011 20:34

The following news should serve as a warning shot against US stuff. they will balance India and China as they balanced India and Pakistan

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/18/busin ... bgDUcxoLdA

THE NEW YORK TIMES

G.E. to Share Jet Technology With China in New Joint Venture

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 19 Jan 2011 20:39

^^^
The rise of the next East india company.I just cannot get the analogy out of my mind.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 19 Jan 2011 20:47

Philip wrote:Vive la France! Je suis tres 'appy to meet votre belle damsels de Paris! Je suis tres familiare avec Paris et ze damsels du Moulin Rouge et al.Pardonnez-moi atrocious French!

apparently these days most of the moulin rouge girls are brits and aussies...

johnny_m · Post by **johnny_m** » 20 Jan 2011 00:21

Super Hornet Upgrade Path....Mockup to be displayed at Aero India 11

http://hotfile.com/dl/98021072/031dbfe/Super_Hornet_Upgrade.pdf.html

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 20 Jan 2011 00:57

As a summary I can only say ...
India can buy only one fighter other companies will find some other customer (Chincom is going to get some stuff from losers .. directly or indirectly).
We have to choose a fighter which is good and can offer critical tech but not screws or drivers. It will be good to skip US and Russia fighter as US will not give direct tech and Ru has already given what they could.

We should select best keeping in mind long term wins from EU. For India, era of 3th gen will be over in 5 yrs and 4th gen will be over in 15-20 yrs. So spending money on upgrade, can be justified only for Paki reasons. That also does not make sense as LCA will be coming earlier then the upgrades. At least we should wait until LCA FOC, before and if we spend money on upgrades.

Multatuli · Post by **Multatuli** » 20 Jan 2011 01:18

I agree with Acharya, IIRC the Germans are the ones spearheading the EF campaign for Yindia. I have had plenty of interaction with Germans over the past few years (and although I am generalising by saying this), its simply too hard to believe that the reason why they lost out is because they didnt get their bid in time!

Yup, the Germans are known for their "Pünktlichkeit" ( punctuality ) and of course their "Grundligkeit" ( perfectionism/thoroughness ). It's highly unlikely that EADS was "late" with their bid if the Germans are leading the sales effort of the Euro Fighter to India.

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 20 Jan 2011 02:04

Deadline Emerges For India's $10B Warplane Deal
DefenseNews

Pallam Raju, the minister of state for defense, said on the sidelines of a Jan. 19 conference here that the warplane contest could be decided by December. The conference was hosted by an industrial lobby group, the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India. "I am hopeful of awarding it by the end of this year," Raju said.

The MMRCA program, for the purchase of 126 planes, is running behind schedule, The Indian Defence Ministry has made no formal announcement on the short-listing of aircraft after flight trials last year. Raju said the ministry still has to carry out a comparative analysis of different vendors in terms of offset and transfer of technology offers before the financial bids are opened.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 20 Jan 2011 02:15

I thought I read sometime back this saga would be all over in about 4-6 months time. Now they say EoY!. Let us hope those RFPs stays valid till then, and the contenders don't shut their shop down for lack of business. - candidates are - F16, Mig, Rafale, and perhaps the other the EU half bloods.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 20 Jan 2011 06:12

Some rather cool developments on the Stealthy Shornet via AFM (Jo Asakura):
http://www.zinio.com/reader.jsp?issue=4 ... nt&prev=si

What is most impressive about this bird is the EPE engine(s) - an increase in thrust by 20% will certainly have a dramatic impact on the basic Shornet (giving it a TWR markedly higher than even the Tiffy). However, the cruddy design (effective for carrier ops but not so at hi-alt, speed air combat) stays the same. Whether the hyper power is going to offset this entirely is anybody's guess, but certainly there will be improvement in traditional areas of weakness - acceleration, climbrates, turn rates etc. I wonder how it will stress the airframe though - can the design handle the power or could the a/c supercruise?

LOts of customizable options - CFTs (more effective for the Shornet than the Viper imho), and a "stealthy" weapons pod offering a degree of versatility that other 4.5 gen birds simply cannot. The CFTs would certainly be useful - allowing the bird, even fully loaded with 7500kg of fuel, and 6 AAMs externally mounted, to have a TWR of well over 1. More importantly, the article states that Boeing is specifically revamping the bird largely to meet IAF A2A specs.

And even though I am not such a great fan of the Shornet, the EPE engine + Stealth option, makes it a v.v, interesting option indeed. Avionics/Sensor wise this bird is obviously up there with the best.

Now if only US export laws can be equally customizable!

CM

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Jan 2011 08:26

ofcourse if one thinks of a fighter ready for a fight *today* with the IAF specs, the F-teens head the list. the others need atleast 5 yrs to come up to that mark.

johnny_m · Post by **johnny_m** » 20 Jan 2011 09:02

Originally posted at mp.com

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/sh ... ost5417941

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Jan 2011 09:54

I still think Gripen-NG is the best bet for MMRCA cost effectiveness , TOT and logistics commonality with Tejas , being a comparatively cheaper fighter we can scale up the numbers to 200-300 if need be and it can gel well with Tejas , MKI and PAK-FA , it would also add value to tejas mk2 in terms of tot , all in all a good deal.

Most of the twin engine heavy fighters in MMRCA barring Mig-35 are quite expensive bird and does not offer the value for money that Gripen-NG brings to the table. Lets see how things go for this bird.

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 20 Jan 2011 18:21

I would love it if the Gripen NG were chosen as the MRCA winner, with 40% more fuel carrying capacity and super-cruise ability improving it's range it's one hell of an aircraft. Agree with austin that owing to it's comparatively lower cost we can always ramp up the order if necessary and 10 weapon stations also give it a formidable staying ability.

Now that LCA is being inducted in IAF and work on Mk2 is underway, perhaps the MoD should stop being skeptical about Gripen damaging LCA prospects, we'll probably see 10 squadrons of LCA in IAF (with or without Gripen) before HAL, ADA et all move on to designing bigger and better birds.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 20 Jan 2011 18:48

mm.. all blame would be on LCA if Gripen NG (prototype) is chosen. We would have thought about a twin engined LCA-NG by now with no future for MRCA contenders. Well..