West Asia News and Discussions

Kamboja · Post by **Kamboja** » 26 Jan 2011 04:58

Thousands of protesters on the streets in multiple cities in Egypt apparently.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7 ... geNumber=1

http://i.imgur.com/hX6Mo.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/eFI9i.jpg

wig · Post by **wig** » 26 Jan 2011 18:39

Egypt president's son, family flee to Britain

CAIRO: Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's son, who is considered as his successor, has fled to Britain along with his family, a US-based Arabic website reported.

The plane with Gamal Mubarak, his wife and daughter on board left for London Tuesday from an airport in western Cairo, the website Akhbar al-Arab said.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 365922.cms

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 26 Jan 2011 19:04

So it is happening faster then I expected. Egyptians are tired of Mubarak. Aam population is reduced to a servent class that serve tourists. No industry nothing. Best car Egyptian can afford is Pegeot 206 (second hand from Europe). Elite like to speak French and GO TO Paris and Lebanon for weekend. If you talk to guy on street you see the hatred they have for Mubarak clan.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Jan 2011 21:08

rsingh, You are right. It was quicker than expected. I think now the dominoes will start falling all over. Dynastic poltics atleast in North Africa for now are over.

Mubarak's son was his designated successor.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 26 Jan 2011 21:57

mubarak is al qaeda's enemy #1 == al saud... lets be careful about how this progresses
brotherhood is in the wings as johan has pointed out

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Jan 2011 22:10

Lalmohan, The true feelings will come out. Right now its all muddled.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Jan 2011 02:32

Mubarak's Shah of Iran moment!

US in shift, bluntly urges Mubarak to reform now

....
Reuters) - The United States bluntly urged Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Wednesday to make political reforms in the face of protesters demanding his ouster, marking a pivot in its stance toward a key Arab ally.....
The revolt in Tunisia has prompted questions about the stability of other Arab governments and initially dragged down equity, bond and foreign exchange prices in parts of the region, notably Egypt....

Every tinpot dictator who works for US will get such messages during their span. Some get it early others later.

The consequence of this 'blunt' message is Mubarak is now damaged goods. Those trying to overthrow him will get a boost.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 27 Jan 2011 02:39

Egypt is now officially in full scale revolt - reports of people taking over the Foreign ministry in Cairo. From people who visited Egypt recently, pretty much everyone don't like him and are begging for revolution. But Egypt being taken over is serious business.

You know this is a major blow for the Al Sauds. They were working with Egypt on numerous projects. So what happens to the Suez? Thats the question. I am surprised the US is letting go so easily.

Thing is everyone in the region was preparing for this day. I have already posted about syria's plans.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Jan 2011 02:41

Nightwatch concurs:

1/26/2011

Egypt: Today is the "day of rage." On 25 January, a day honoring Egyptian police, tens of thousands of people demonstrated against the government, calling for President Mubarak to step down. Police used water cannon and tear gas against rock throwing demonstrators.

Egyptian security forces used rubber bullets to disperse an estimated 8,000 demonstrators in Alexandria's central Sidi Gaber Square. More than 1,000 people from various opposition groups protested in Mansoura and an estimated 15,000 protesters occupied Tahrir Square in Cairo. Nearly 5,000 protesters demonstrated in Mahalla and dozens of youth were reportedly protesting in Minya.

Two protestors and one policeman died in the clashes. As in Tunisia online social media served as the channel for organizing the demonstration in large numbers without official permission.

The government cut or restricted aaccess to internet, phone and social media networks, spreading confusion among protesters and temporarily sealing the largest Arab country off from the rest of the world. Access was later restored, although services remained intermittent.

Comment: Despite a US statement that the government of Egypt is stable, the demonstrations show that it has suppressed a large undercurrent of potentially incendiary opposition, whose capabilities are not known. Sclerotic regimes like those of Mubarak never know the depth or expanse of their real opposition because they are so busy suppressing it.

This creates the condition for a field-grade officers' coup to install a reformist government, which Egypt has experienced whenever a government has overstayed its welcome. Sadat and Mubarak did that and Mubarak is overdue to have it done to him. If the demonstrations continue for two more weeks, the Mubarak era will be over.

By her statement the US SOS has jsut shortened the timeline.

Also Sadat was not installed in a coup but succeded Abdel Nasser after the 1967 defeat.

It was Nasser who staged a coup against his previous leader who overthrew King Farouk.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 27 Jan 2011 05:30

Egypt launches crackdown on protesters as US urges reform

Protesters in Suez set a government building on fire and tried to burn down a local office of Egypt's ruling party with petrol bombs.
Demonstrators had earlier broken through police cordons despite hundreds being severely beaten and the presence of the feared undercover police on the streets.

this will get ugly and more ugly until changes occurs in the govt or army brutally suppresses kills mango man a la chinese style.

Mrs Clinton said the government should allow peaceful protests instead of cracking down.

William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, also urged Mr Mubarak to make concessions.

trying to balance both sides whoever wins.

The social networking site Twitter, which has been used to mobilise the protesters, was blocked, though the government denied it was responsible.

wow social media to the fore.

The regime faces a dilemma in that concessions as demanded by the crowd could just do enough to stop the protests or could be, as in Tunisia, interpreted as a sign of weakness," said one Western official.

Unconfirmed reports said that members of the president's family had fled, a charge that Egyptian diplomats in London denied. A Gulf newspaper claimed that Gamal Mubarak, the president's son and most likely successor, had boarded a private jet bound for London, taking his family and 97 pieces of baggage with him. Egyptian baggage handlers at Heathrow were also quoted as saying that they had seen Mr Mubarak's wife Suzanne, who holds a British passport, at the airport.

So the source of info.

Egypt is the largest arab country. If it falls wonder what it will look for other neighbouring countries with despotic regimes.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 27 Jan 2011 05:36

As Protests Mount, Tunisia Delays Cabinet Reshuffle

Complying with requests from the interim government, Reuters reported, Swiss authorities said they have frozen assets more than $10 million belonging to the Ben Ali family, and Interpol issued a global alert for the arrest of Mr. Ben Ali and six family members. Other governments are moving to freeze Ben Ali family assets as well.

Look at swiss govt- freezing the assets. They could have refused as Tunisia is not a strong country. hinting at something else.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 27 Jan 2011 06:00

Wasn't former UN nuclear committee chief El-Baradei a popular opponent of Mubarak's rule? If one thinks about it, this is a great opportunity for him to push for democratic elections, but i'm also afraid the power vacuum might give place to Jihadi parties aka Algeria/Iran. If Egypt falls into the clutches of Islamic brotherhood,all the hardwork done by Israel to ensure her security will be reset to a big zero. The Saudis must be watching things unfold in their neighborhood with bated breath.

What's interesting is if this'll lead to another bloody summer in Iran? US has its job cut out. They cannot allow friendly regimes to fall and allow jihadis take over, but this domino could push Iran other way around that could be desirable to US. Boy! It must be tough being Obama!

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 27 Jan 2011 09:17

Nothing ever changes, anywhere unless the power broking elites are split.

King Farouk was despised for years in Egypt, and faced many demonstrations. They were all supressed until the army officer corps (led by Nasser and Sadat) turned against him after the war of 1948.

There were only two serious contenders to succeed Mubarak - his son Gamal, and General Omar Suleiman, the head of intelligence since 1993.

Suleiman had lost the contest to Gamal, but now that Mubarak needs the Army at his side more than ever...things may change. We may well be heading back to active military dictatorship in the Arab world.

Even in Tunisia the biggest power broker right now is the Army chief of staff, with the unions in second place. There is nothing as powerful as the unions in Egypt.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Jan 2011 10:39

per TOI Mubarak's son the architect of some economic 'reforms' that hurt the poor has apparently fled to london with family and 100 pieces of luggage , indicating he has no plans to return anytime soon.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 368788.cms

meantime El baradei is going to return soon from vienna
http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews ... JL20110126

if mubarak steps down would be the 2nd Munna after the tunisian munna who was apparently france's ally

the financial times claims the unrest spells end of mideast dynasties...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/263300e2-2981 ... z1CD9psC7S

Please respect FT.com's ts&cs and copyright policy which allow you to: share links; copy content for personal use; & redistribute limited extracts. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights or use this link to reference the article - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/263300e2-2981 ... z1CDABYFjg

Though distasteful to the people, dynastic succession has found some appeal among western supporters of the Arab world’s autocratic regimes, providing assurances of continued stability, particularly in states that are considered strategic allies.

Tunisia’s deposed Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali had given much economic power to family members, and many politicians suspect he had the intention of putting forward his wife Leila, despised by most Tunisians, as president.

In impoverished Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been ruling even longer than Mr Mubarak, has been grooming his son Ahmed, head of the army’s special forces and the country’s Republican Guard.

Last week, Yemen was rocked by days of Tunisia-inspired protests demanding an end to Mr Saleh’s rule and his suspected tawrith plans. On Sunday, the Yemeni leader delivered a speech to try to calm the streets, in which he described talk of dynastic succession as “utmost rudeness”. “We are against succession . . . We are in favour of change,” he declared.

Libya’s Muammer Gaddafi appears to be grooming not one but two sons, setting them up against each other in a race to succeed him. The once rising star of Saif al-Islam, the 39-year-old who has positioned himself as a champion of reform, has been fading in recent months as the power struggle with his brother, Muatassim, head of a security agency, intensifies.

The sons of Arab rulers have generally cultivated an image of youthful, modern leaders, helping them win support from reformist elites. Saif al-Islam, for example, has been the preferred interlocutor of foreign business looking for deals in Libya. He was also credited with persuading his father to denounce weapons of mass destruction and rehabilitate Libya on the international stage.

Gamal Mubarak, a senior leader in the ruling NDP, is also believed to have been instrumental in pushing for economic reforms that the elderly Mubarak had long resisted. He brought a group of economic liberals into the NDP and made himself popular within the business community.

Long before Tunisia encouraged Arabs to defy their rulers and take to the streets, however, Egyptian opposition parties and civil society groups had consistently voiced their rejection of a Gamal succession, launching a campaign to warn of its dangers.

praksam · Post by **praksam** » 27 Jan 2011 19:56

The revolution is spreading to other countries.From Tunisia to Egypt to Yemen.Only time will tell if the pakis do their own revolt on the feudals?

Thousands march in Yemen to demand change of government

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70Q23620110127

Thousands of Yemenis took to the streets of Sanaa Thursday to demand a change of government, inspired by the unrest that has ousted Tunisia's leader and spread to Egypt this week.

Reuters witnesses estimated that around 16,000 Yemenis demonstrated in four parts of Sanaa in the largest rally since a wave of protests rocked Yemen last week, and protesters vowed to escalate the unrest unless their demands were met.

President Ali Abdullah Saleh, a key ally of the United States in a war against a resurgent al Qaeda wing based in Yemen, has ruled this Arabian Peninsula state for over 30 years.

Rocking the casbah:A region in upheaval
http://ht.ly/3Ld3U

First it was Tunisia. Then it was Libya, Algeria, Jordan, Yemen, Albania, Lebanon and Egypt. Suddenly, civil unrest has erupted in countries, some of which have been under authoritarian rule for decades, all over the Middle East and North Africa.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 27 Jan 2011 20:26

if mango abduls are agitating for khobz and hummus then it probably takes away political space from al-qaeda and friends, who are agitating against great satan
what will be interesting to see is which political alignment the new regimes (if and when they arrive) will take... one assumes that unkil will not be preferred friend (since they will be seen as the soviet union was during the east european soft revolutions) - who will step in?
Russia?
China?
how about India?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 27 Jan 2011 20:47

Lalmohan wrote: how about India?

I think Indian GoI should worry more about its own street level revolutions right now.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Jan 2011 21:00

Unconfirmed reports said that members of the president's family had fled, a charge that Egyptian diplomats in London denied. A Gulf newspaper claimed that Gamal Mubarak, the president's son and most likely successor, had boarded a private jet bound for London, taking his family and 97 pieces of baggage with him. Egyptian baggage handlers at Heathrow were also quoted as saying that they had seen Mr Mubarak's wife Suzanne, who holds a British passport, at the airport.

One common theme with these dictators and their families. Foreign Passport holders. We have a few in India too

Raghavendra · Post by **Raghavendra** » 27 Jan 2011 21:08

^passport of Edvige Antonia Albina Maino must be confiscated to prevent escape with loot of indian money

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 27 Jan 2011 21:16

well... its not like the money is going to be in saddle bags to be run outta town...
what had to go has already gone
electronically onlee

Raghavendra · Post by **Raghavendra** » 27 Jan 2011 21:25

^ but the password and account numbers is with Edvige Antonia Albina Maino, catch hold of the thief and using interrogation get the password to transfer money back to India

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 27 Jan 2011 21:49

Amber wrote:

Wasn't former UN nuclear committee chief El-Baradei a popular opponent of Mubarak's rule? If one thinks about it, this is a great opportunity for him to push for democratic elections, but i'm also afraid the power vacuum might give place to Jihadi parties aka Algeria/Iran. If Egypt falls into the clutches of Islamic brotherhood,all the handwork done by Israel to ensure her security will be reset to a big zero. The Saudis must be watching things unfold in their neighbourhood with bated breath.

What's interesting is if this'll lead to another bloody summer in Iran? US has its job cut out. They cannot allow friendly regimes to fall and allow jihadis take over, but this domino could push Iran other way around that could be desirable to US. Boy! It must be tough being Obama!

El Bardaei doesn't have grass root support. He is more famous outside Egypt. Amm Misri abdul hardly knows him. You can not be famous just because CNN says so. Secondly there educated abduls in middle east knows his role as US stooge during Eyrikean nuclear tamasha. Islamic brotherhood has support but is not in position to give Egyptians any alternative to Mubarak for the time being. I expect military to come out to restore law and order and more bloodshed.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Jan 2011 21:59

Usually its a military person who takes over after a crisis and will promise elections to keep the West of his back. After tasting power they will cite some civil disturbance an postpone the elections. Soon West will be happy about stability and allow a kangaroo election with one candidate (the one who took over) and he will get 99.4% of the vote and all will be away.
Its a charade with all the players.
SD asking Mubarak to reform is a signal that his time is up and he sould get out.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 27 Jan 2011 22:14

Delhi is rife with the news that Sonia Gadhi has fled the country with to avoid getting arrested, that's why she was absent during Republic Day parade.

Tunisia effect reaches India too.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Jan 2011 22:25

Now don't start rumors. She was ill (reported in news media) and hadn't been seen on Republic Day functions.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 27 Jan 2011 22:25

ramana wrote:Usually its a military person who takes over after a crisis and will promise elections to keep the West of his back. After tasting power they will cite some civil disturbance an postpone the elections. Soon West will be happy about stability and allow a kangaroo election with one candidate (the one who took over) and he will get 99.4% of the vote and all will be away.

You've nailed it down to a T

The real causality here will be Gamal Mubarak. Hosni will step down, eventually, and the military will pick the next candidate.

After all Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak were all officers, and all unrelated to each other.

Its the return of the Mamluks, who were strictly non-hereditary when it came to power transfer. Nothing short of massacre by the Ottoman janissary from Albania, Mohammed Ali was able to end their power as a class.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Jan 2011 22:31

Good observation: Return of the Mameluks. Its same in TSP where Generals takeover in a trice.

Its realted to the idea of an Islamic State.

The Sultan is head of govt and the military. That is what gives power to him for Zawabit.

Westphalian state ideas are reverting back to pre-Modern age. And Europe is de-Romanizing.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Jan 2011 22:36

ElBaradei returning to lead protests. Lets see. He might be the nominal head to make it acceptable to continue the baksheesh from US.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Jan 2011 22:38

musharraf was welcomed as a reformer and straight shooter by the public.

the honeymoon did last a few years.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 27 Jan 2011 22:45

<OT>

abhischekcc wrote:Delhi is rife with the news that Sonia Gadhi has fled the country with to avoid getting arrested, that's why she was absent during Republic Day parade.

Tunisia effect reaches India too.

She did not feld. She went to London to party away from INC party for a break. It was a private jet per a blog and the schedule of the flight is known only to the pilot who is not of Indian origin.
</OT>

KrishG · Post by **KrishG** » 27 Jan 2011 22:56

The fact is that the Egyptian opposition is mobilizing a large number of people irrespective of their ideological differences. Different groups have different agendas on what the future political system should be, from the idea of an Islamist state envisaged by the Muslim Brotherhood all the way to a secular, liberal state envisaged by the Al Ghad party. All the opponents of Mubarak have formed a loose coalition called the NAC (National Association of Change), setup by ElBaradei.

Here's a description of the major-opposition factions that is protesting against Mubarak's rule:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12290167

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 27 Jan 2011 23:11

Krish,

This has happened in many Arab countries before - Syria for example in 2004-05. It was a big deal when Liberals and Islamists, and disgruntled/passed over former regime members formed a common front against a common enemy.

There were demonstrations bubbling up all over Syria, and you had Damascus University students marching for the Kurds and the Lebanese and vice versa.

In the end the secret police arrested most of them, and the rest fled. Why? Because Bashar al-Asad didn't lose his nerve, and because there were enough officers in the security services to back him.

Same thing took place in Iran after the elections. Millions were on the streets, backed by both mullahs and Ataturk like secularists. It wasn't enough because Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard (Pasdaran) held firm. The result is that even though the current state has completely lost legitimacy with the Iranian people, the Pasdaran is more powerful than ever, a kind of untouchable Janissary corps that dominates the economy and crushes any and all threats to their power.

The military has to step aside, or better still, stand aside while facing face their own internal struggles if ordinary people are to have a chance against authoritarian states.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Jan 2011 23:28

And even if it succeeds in dislodging the regime all the sundry supporters will be eventually killed and one group will emerge. Just like French Revolution to Khomieni's Iran.

KrishG · Post by **KrishG** » 27 Jan 2011 23:43

Johann wrote:Krish,

This has happened in many Arab countries before - Syria for example in 2004-05. It was a big deal when Liberals and Islamists, and disgruntled/passed over former regime members formed a common front against a common enemy.

There were demonstrations bubbling up all over Syria, and you had Damascus University students marching for the Kurds and the Lebanese and vice versa.

In the end the secret police arrested most of them, and the rest fled. Why? Because Bashar al-Asad didn't lose his nerve, and because there were enough officers in the security services to back him.

Same thing took place in Iran after the elections. Millions were on the streets, backed by both mullahs and Ataturk like secularists. It wasn't enough because Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard (Pasdaran) held firm. The result is that even though the current state has completely lost legitimacy with the Iranian people, the Pasdaran is more powerful than ever, a kind of untouchable Janissary corps that dominates the economy and crushes any and all threats to their power.

The military has to step aside, or better still, stand aside while facing face their own internal struggles if ordinary people are to have a chance against authoritarian states.

So, it means that such uprisings are destined to probably fail in larger countries with powerful militaries and internal security cover. The Tunisian revolution might have succeeded given that it's a relatively small country with a small, ineffective security establishment and the chances of such uprisings succeeding in countries like Egypt might be very small.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 27 Jan 2011 23:45

Krish, I think that's true. Also Tunisia is very well educated, has powerful unions and a large diaspora. Those things together raise expectations.

ramana wrote:And even if it succeeds in dislodging the regime all the sundry supporters will be eventually killed and one group will emerge. Just like French Revolution to Khomieni's Iran.

Ramana,

I actually think the comparison between Iran and France is a very good one.

It took almost 80 years, and a great deal of bloodshed and repeated upheaval for France to transition from an absolute monarchy to a liberal democracy, but it happened because that is what the majority of the French, and the majority of its classes, from the working class to the professional classes wanted.

Iran is in a similar transition, and going through similar struggles over the role of the state, the role of religion in public life, etc. But like France, I believe Iran *will* succeed in making the transition, eventually, just like Turkey did.

I'm not so sure about the Arab world. People are much more wedded to the idea of moral and political order imposed through hierarchy. It will take them longer, but Turkey, the EU, and eventually Iran will be powerful influences that will bring lasting changes to many places - but Egypt will be a tough nut to crack in that respect.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Jan 2011 23:50

Why don't you write an essay? This is sure more insightful than the tripe from Foreign Affairs.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 28 Jan 2011 00:07

Johann wrote: Its the return of the Mamluks, who were strictly non-hereditary when it came to power transfer. Nothing short of massacre by the Ottoman janissary from Albania, Mohammed Ali was able to end their power as a class.

Since our Paki brothers consider themselves as ME'ners...

The other day I was pondering and it occurred to me that the whole purpose of civilian govt in Pakistan is for the PM/President to pick the next army general to lead the military coup. Perhaps the corps commanders do not want to do that selection among themselves as every one of them wants to be the next COAS.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Jan 2011 00:57

Johann wrote:Krish,

This has happened in many Arab countries before - Syria for example in 2004-05. It was a big deal when Liberals and Islamists, and disgruntled/passed over former regime members formed a common front against a common enemy.

There were demonstrations bubbling up all over Syria, and you had Damascus University students marching for the Kurds and the Lebanese and vice versa.

In the end the secret police arrested most of them, and the rest fled. Why? Because Bashar al-Asad didn't lose his nerve, and because there were enough officers in the security services to back him.

Same thing took place in Iran after the elections. Millions were on the streets, backed by both mullahs and Ataturk like secularists. It wasn't enough because Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard (Pasdaran) held firm. The result is that even though the current state has completely lost legitimacy with the Iranian people, the Pasdaran is more powerful than ever, a kind of untouchable Janissary corps that dominates the economy and crushes any and all threats to their power.

The military has to step aside, or better still, stand aside while facing face their own internal struggles if ordinary people are to have a chance against authoritarian states.

Was speaking to some knowledgeable folks, they say that they expect the protests to last a few days and then die down. He MAY implement SOME reforms. But he'll hold his nerve. If anything, I dont think the US is worried, El Baradei is a US hand anyway - They'll just back him.

Ameet · Post by **Ameet** » 28 Jan 2011 01:12

Thousands march in Yemen to demand change of government

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_yemen_protests

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 28 Jan 2011 03:41

What to read in the repeated and ghastly attacks on Shia religious processions in Karbala and other places in Iraq?

Is it to preempt Iranian inroads into Iraq?