Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Dec. 28, 2010

[partha]

X Posted from the India Nuclear News and Discussion thread.

The Washington Post reports that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon arsenal is larger than India’s:

After years of approximate weapons parity, experts said, Pakistan has now edged ahead of India, its nuclear-armed rival.

URL here:

New estimates put Pakistan's nuclear arsenal at more than 100

There were reports of Pakistan building nukes for KSA. That could explain the rise in the number of weapons. But as far as India is concerned, 90 or 100 does not matter much I think.

[Prem]

http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2011/ ... -of-egypt/
Army, Allah and America: on Pakistani pitfalls and the future of Egypt
Falling Dominos and Following Poakanimals

It is a lesson that may yet need to be learned in Egypt. As Amil Khan wrote from Islamabad in his Twitter feed, “Love the way Pakistani twitterers puzzled by Egyptians’ trust in army. Guys, you’re kinda similar, but kinda different.”Then there is political Islam. Both Pakistan and Egypt have powerful religious parties which have their roots in Islamist movements born out of Muslim resentment against British colonial rule. In Pakistan, the Jamaat-e-Islami, founded in then British India, has, along with other religious parties played a disproportionately significant role in setting the agenda which goes well beyond their weak showing at the ballot box. It has reached the point where no government — either civilian or military — has dared challenge them on issues of faith. When Salman Taseer, governor of Punjab province, was shot dead by his own security guard earlier this month over his opposition to the country’s blasphemy laws, his killer was celebrated as a hero. Few dared speak out and most of Taseer’s colleagues in the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) were quick to insist there would no changes to the laws.
Many attribute the grip of religious parties on Pakistani society to the use of Islam as a means of uniting the country’s different ethnic groups, to past support by its military for mujahideen fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan and then the Indians in Kashmir, and to the Islamicisation policies of General Zia-ul-Haq. But over the years every politician has made use of the religious parties to bolster their support, including PPP founder Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, who declared the minority Ahmadi sect as non-Muslims in 1974, and was later deposed and hanged by Zia in 1979.
Unlike Pakistan, Egypt has more ethnic homogeneity and, with its large Coptic population, greater religious diversity so – on paper at least – political Islam would be less obvious as a unifying force. The Muslim Brotherhood, founded like the Jamaat-e-Islami in opposition to British rule, has taken a low profile in the Egyptian protests, though as former Reuters bureau chief in Cairo Jonathan Wright argues in his blog, this may be a deliberately calibrated stance.
“The Brotherhood, like Islamist groups in many Arab countries, has cold feet about governing. It does not feel it is ready. This is reflected in its official strategy of concentrating on a political reform agenda which it shares with many other groups – free and fair elections, rule of law, a new constitution with checks and balances and so on. What the Brotherhood wants most in the short term is the freedom to organize and promote its ideas in a democratic environment, regardless of who is in government. The Brotherhood believes that, given freedom and time, it can win over Egyptians to its long-term agenda.”The Pew Global Attitudes Survey released in December also suggested that Egyptians might actually be more in favour of Islam playing a role in society than Pakistanis. Ninety-five percent of Egyptians questions said it was good for Islam to play a large role in politics, compared to 88 percent of Pakistanis. “At least three-quarters of Muslims in Egypt and Pakistan say they would favor making each of the following the law in their countries: stoning people who commit adultery, whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft and robbery and the death penalty for those who leave the Muslim religion,” it said.
Finally there is America, which has propped up military rulers in both countries and used generous quantities of American aid to buy support first against communism and then against militant Islam. In Pakistan, the United States is already struggling to foster civilian, democratic rule at a time when it is deeply distrusted. It is likely to face similar challenges in Egypt if it chooses, and manages, to go down that route.

[ramana]

So the Pakis might get their Egyptian dawn!

[Dipanker]

X Posted from the India Nuclear News and Discussion thread.

The Washington Post reports that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon arsenal is larger than India’s:

After years of approximate weapons parity, experts said, Pakistan has now edged ahead of India, its nuclear-armed rival.

URL here:

New estimates put Pakistan's nuclear arsenal at more than 100

This is the same report which appears every 6 months or so. Pakistan has 2 working reactors, India has 20 and in addition a few research ones, mathematically India is roughly producing 10 times more fissile material than Pakistan, so of course Pakistan has more nukes, makes sense!

[Prem]

xpost
http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... an/423326/
Pakistan - South Asia's sick man

Today, Pakistan is South Asia’s sick man. This year – the financial year ending on June 30 – if the Pakistani economy grows at all, the rate of increase will be no more than the rate of growth in population. This means that there will be no increase in average income and, for most of the population, income per head will decline. This will add another 10 million to the pool of poverty, bringing the total to over 70 million (Another ten years at this Pakislamic rate of retreat will transform whole Poakland into real Benisland)and whole . In the immediate future, the national output is likely to increase at a rate less than one-half of that expected for Bangladesh and one-third of that projected for India (Already 10 time bigger) .I pointed this out to Pakistan’s President Ass-saaf Allie Zardari in a recent meeting. He responded by saying that by comparing the performances of India, Bangladesh and Pakistan I was comparing apples and oranges. India had had a democratic system of government for more than 60 years and Bangladesh had been under democratic rule for a longer period than Pakistan. He said he had inherited a damaged economy and a dysfunctional political system from a military dictator. His government’s first priority was to provide the country with a political system that was fully representative of the wishes of the citizenry.
the Indian rate of domestic savings and its tax-to-GDP ratio are more than twice that of Pakistan. Islamabad has had to go repeatedly to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to save itself from bankruptcy. India needed to do that only once in the last quarter century.
New Delhi put a great deal of emphasis on developing public sector institutions of education, training and learning in a number of sectors. The famed institutions of administration and technology have produced skilled people who have led some important parts of the Indian economy. They also constitute the core of the community of Non-Resident Indians (NRIs), who are playing an important role in transforming the Indian economy at this time. Pakistan does not have a single such institution in the public sector.The third important difference is that the Indians have allowed the development of scale in the modern sectors of their economy. Consequently, some of the Indian firms are now of the size and competence to challenge those in the West. The Indian firm has arrived on the international scene. That may have happened in Pakistan’s case too but for the nationalisation undertaken by former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in the early 1970s. He was, in a way, adopting the Indian socialist model of economic management without realising that India built up the state sector through investment, not expropriation of private assets.
.

[A_Gupta]

While looking for the Pew Research data, came across this factoid. Based on urban sample of population, the following:

"In all, double-digit gender gaps for cell phone ownership exist in only five of the 22 nations polled. The largest gap is in Pakistan, where a majority of men (52%) own a cell phone, compared with about a quarter of women (23%)."

[RamaY]

URL here:

New estimates put Pakistan's nuclear arsenal at more than 100

AoA onlee

Inshallah Pakis soon cross China and USA in nukes and become worlds nuke power exporting them to all four corners of Ummah!

Bhasmasura moment is fast approaching

[ramana]

A_Gupta, Can you lead an effort to compare and contrast Egypt and TSP? I think we shoud be prepared if the contagion spreads to TSP.


What is similar and what is different? And what changes should we be noting that tips the balance?
The TSP failure thread would be good place.

[Prem]

Boakasurs @ Bhamasur. woof?

[A_Gupta]

The Pew Research stuff also says (note: in Egypt a representative sample was polled, Pakistan was "disproportionately urban").
http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims ... hezbollah/

Bin Laden

"In Egypt, about one-in-five Muslims offer positive opinions of bin Laden (19%) and his organization (20%), while more than seven-in-ten express negative views of each (73% and 72%, respectively).

Pakistani Muslims also have negative views of bin Laden; just 18% express at least some confidence in him, while 45% say they have little or no confidence in the al Qaeda leader. Nearly four-in-ten (37%) do not offer an opinion."

Current role of Islam in politics

In Pakistan, a 46% plurality of Muslims say Islam plays a large role, while 36% say it plays a small role in Pakistani politics. Opinions are about evenly divided in Egypt, where 48% of Muslims say Islam plays a large role in their country’s political life and 49% say it plays only a small role....

Pakistani Muslims are less likely than they were five years ago to say that Islam plays a large role in their country’s political life; in 2005, more than six-in-ten (63%) saw Islam as having considerable influence.

Modernizers vs Fundamentalists

A considerable number of Pakistani Muslims (44%) also say there is currently a struggle between modernizers and fundamentalists in their country, but the same percentage of Muslims in Pakistan do not offer an opinion on the matter; just 12% see no struggle.

Only in Jordan and Egypt do majorities of Muslims say there is no struggle between modernizers and Islamic fundamentalists in their countries. About seven-in-ten (72%) Jordanian Muslims and 61% of Egyptian Muslims offer this opinion; just 20% and 31%, respectively, see a struggle in their countries. In both of these countries, however, Muslims are now more likely than they were in 2009 to say there is a struggle; a year ago, 14% of Muslims in Jordan and 22% in Egypt saw a struggle in their countries.

Gender segregation

Pakistani Muslims are the most supportive: 85% say they would favor making segregation of men and women in the workplace the law in their country. A narrower majority (54%) of Muslims in Egypt also support making gender segregation the law in their country.

Severe punishments

About eight-in-ten Muslims in Egypt and Pakistan (82% each) endorse the stoning of people who commit adultery....Muslims in Pakistan and Egypt are also the most supportive of whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft and robbery; 82% in Pakistan and 77% in Egypt favor making this type of punishment the law in their countries...When asked about the death penalty for those who leave the Muslim religion, at least three-quarters of Muslims in Jordan (86%), Egypt (84%) and Pakistan (76%) say they would favor making it the law...

Democracy

...A somewhat narrower majority of Muslims in Egypt (59%) say democracy is preferable to any other kind of government...In Pakistan, just about four-in-ten Muslims (42%) prefer democracy to other types of government; 15% of Pakistani Muslims say that, in some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable, and 21% say that, for someone like them, the kind of government their country has does not matter. About one-in-five Pakistani Muslims (22%) do not offer an opinion.

Demographic variation on democracy

For the most part, views of democracy among Muslim publics are not tied to demographics.......In Pakistan, however, Muslims with at least some college education are considerably more likely than those with less education to say that democracy is preferable to any other kind of government; more than half of Pakistani Muslims with some college education or more offer this opinion (53%), compared with 45% of those with a secondary education and just 36% of those with a primary education or less.

Yet, those with less education are not necessarily more likely than those with some college to embrace other forms of government; a similar percentage in each group says that non-democratic government can be preferable and that the kind of government Pakistan has does not matter to people like them. Instead, Pakistani Muslims with a primary education or less are about three times more likely than those with at least some college to decline to offer an opinion (28% vs. 9%, respectively).

Suicide bombing

One-in-five Muslims in Egypt and Jordan offer support for suicide bombing in defense of Islam, as do 15% of Indonesian Muslims. Yet, far more in these three countries say these violent acts are never justified; 46% of Muslims in Egypt and a majority in Jordan (54%) and Indonesia (69%) reject suicide bombings. The notion that these types of attacks against civilians are never justified is even more widespread in Pakistan and Turkey, where 80% and 77%, respectively, share this view.

PS: 8% of the Pakistani sample thinks that suicide bombing is often or sometimes justified. This is down from the 41% recorded in 2004.
Concern over Islamic extremism

Nearly two-thirds of Pakistanis (65%) express concern about Islamic extremism in their country, but fears have declined since last year, when 79% shared that view. About six-in-ten in Egypt (61%) and Indonesia (59%) and more than four-in-ten in Jordan (44%) and Turkey (43%) are also concerned about extremism in their countries.

[habal]

X Posted from the India Nuclear News and Discussion thread.

The Washington Post reports that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon arsenal is larger than India’s:

After years of approximate weapons parity, experts said, Pakistan has now edged ahead of India, its nuclear-armed rival.

URL here:

New estimates put Pakistan's nuclear arsenal at more than 100

Actual number of working ones is closer to 10.

[chandrabhan]

X Posted from the India Nuclear News and Discussion thread.

The Washington post.... experts said, Pakistan has now edged ahead of India, its nuclear-armed rival.

URL here:

New estimates put Pakistan's nuclear arsenal at more than 100

There were reports of Pakistan building nukes for KSA. That could explain the rise in the number of weapons. But as far as India is concerned, 90 or 100 does not matter much I think.

IMO, these articles are to get some response from India on our arsenal. This is classic Psy-ops to scare the SDRE dhotis and somehow force the government to come out with statements i.e. "Don't worry poor SDRE, We have 100000 no-clear bombs to match up with Paki 100". Thankfully no such luck to these mofos

[Gagan]

If I may say so, but what is happening these days hain ji?

Public revolution in Tunisia.
Public revolution in Egypt.
Public revolution in Yemen.

Soon to follow - Iran?

What about Paqistan? Is the situation there ripe for a 'good' (from massa POV) kinda revolution?
But in Paqistan the power broker is the Fauj, and the islamists are not ready enough to take on the fauj.

[Philip]

The kebabs are a cooking in Pak! EGypt spells doom in the future for many more Islamic nations,no matter how moderate they might be.A new virulent streak of fundamentalism has hit the Arab world which is still reeling from the shock of Tunisia.Egypt is a catastrope for the entire Arab world.It is a moment that comes but once in history,like the storming of the Berlin Wall.

[Suppiah]

Guys dont worry about TSP GDP numbers - they are totally immaterial for the pious. What they are looking at is SDP -> Sharia Deployment Product. Right now it is 20% and their target is 100%.

[Singha]

but the people revolting in streets of egypt do not seem to be calling for shariah and harsher islam - they seem to be against the ever present corruption in these nations run by 'strongmen' and would likely be pacified and go home if a cleaner and more effective govt comes to power (not a mullah who promises that more islam is the soln to the problem).

the revolt if any in pak will be of two types - ethnic (baluchi / mohajir / pathan) and religious - people wanting more islam.

the eyptian society and pakis look different to me.

[Gagan]

Sir-ji,
These Egyptians were a bit like the Pakistanis.
Whiskey swilling pseudo liberals at the top controlling a large radical mango abdul population.

Their end was only a matter of time, until the mango abdul got a taste of power.

I feel that some arab countries have visionary monarchs and may have pre-empted this. Bahrain, Qatar, even Kuwait. The others are a ticking time bomb. The KSA monarchy must be the most worried lot after Zardari.

[Suppiah]

It is wrong to conclude that Egyptians or Tunisians dont want more Islam just because the current round of unrest is by and large secular. This is because both countries had a fairly effective pogrom against Islamists for over 3 decades now - exact opposite of Pakbarian Animalistan. Which leaves very few leaders on the ground to take charge. When the dictator goes, slowly the void gets filled by mullahs and their puppets. No one leader has the charisma or reach at least and yet 100% committed to secularism, going by what we hear and see...

[Murugan]

This is the same report which appears every 6 months or so. Pakistan has 2 working reactors, India has 20 and in addition a few research ones, mathematically India is roughly producing 10 times more fissile material than Pakistan, so of course Pakistan has more nukes, makes sense!

Kaafar. laanat hai. 1 pukistani new clear bum == 10 bums of the kaafars.

[RajeshA]

@Shiv ^^^

"But few Hindoos have the guts to go that way on the street in the US because there is a social restriction on doing that and one has to break social codes to be that way. "

That and the fact that US neighbors who keep cows are few and far between. Coupled with with the windchill factor impacting testimonials loosely draped with dhoti, probably a seminal moment

Well may be Walter Bishop can change that trend!

[RajeshA]

I think it is high time some consensus is reached on who is "Islamist".

My definition of Islamist: Anybody who has a political agenda and uses Islam as a tool or as sanction is an Islamist. Such a person displays a certain kind of behavior and world view.

How one models one's personal life is immaterial to Islamism. What one wears, is one's personal choice. One can be a conservative, orthodox Muslim, but need not be called an Islamist.

In the context of Pakistan, the whole establishment, government, state is in fact Islamist. After all, it an "Islamic Republic of Pakistan". So using Islamist to denote any of the above is a redundant qualifier. What we in India understand as Islamists are in Pakistani context "Pakistani Liberals". So when used, the word "Islamist" in Pakistani context usually pertains to a much more restricted definition than the above.

[Lalmohan]

Sir-ji,
These Egyptians were a bit like the Pakistanis.
Whiskey swilling pseudo liberals at the top controlling a large radical mango abdul population.

Their end was only a matter of time, until the mango abdul got a taste of power.

I feel that some arab countries have visionary monarchs and may have pre-empted this. Bahrain, Qatar, even Kuwait. The others are a ticking time bomb. The KSA monarchy must be the most worried lot after Zardari.

gagan

the gulf states are a very different kettle of fish to the states of the maghreb and the levant. the latter are the seat of ancient civilisations and culture. they also have large populations, scant resources, struggling economies and dictatorships propped up by the west.

the gulf states have low populations, high natural resources, very little history and/or culture and are autocratic monarchies propped by the west

visionary and liberal are tags that are bandied about by these folks, but are rarely warranted. right now there is a mad scramble to replicate the dubai model by these folks, with manopower from the levant, maghreb and sub-continent.

the real revolution of arab hearts and minds is in the maghreb and levant... this is what we need to have a soft landing... i.e. middle class secularists in, mullahs out. there is an economic vaccum building here which dragon can easily fill... we have to beat him them to it. Since from the economic agenda (khubz and hummus on the plate) will come political leverage

[RajeshA]

Pak's misadventure at the Hague

This was one side-effect Pakistan had clearly not factored in while dragging India to the International Court of Arbitration over the Kishenganga hydel power project in Jammu and Kashmir. During the first sitting of the court at The Hague recently, Pakistan was taken aback to learn that the total expenditure, as estimated by the court, was around 3.5 million euros (about Rs 21 crore), to be shared equally between the two countries. With its economy in tatters, Pakistan sheepishly protested. While asking the two countries to pool in the money, the court observed that the unspent amount would be returned. But there was little respite for Pakistan which was informed, informally, by the court staff that the estimates were actually conservative and the litigation might just cost even more than that.

International Court of Arbitration should demand the money from both parties as security before even the first hearing. If some party fails to pay, the case should be awarded to the other party which manages to pay. Justice comes with judicial costs.

If Pakistan does not pay up, the International Court of Arbitration should award the Western Rivers completely to India as a fine for not paying.

[Rajdeep]

Well may be Walter Bishop can change that trend!

And maybe Dr. Bishop can give a way to lobotomize the poaks too en masee.

[Suppiah]

Is there anything in the good book against gas pipelines? Another one blown away....

http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-news ... rad-Jamali

Might as well make these pipes of tissue paper the way they go around replacing them every day...

[Gagan]

Pak's misadventure at the Hague

International Court of Arbitration should demand the money from both parties as security before even the first hearing. If some party fails to pay, the case should be awarded to the other party which manages to pay. Justice comes with judicial costs.

If Pakistan does not pay up, the International Court of Arbitration should award the Western Rivers completely to India as a fine for not paying.

And that would be 400% wajib as per Islamic Jurisprudence I'll bet.

Even otherwise, just like normal business practices in the subcontinent, a person who it is doubtful will pay, is usually asked to pay up first - put money on the table, before things start to move.

Time to see if Pakistan puts its money where it has put in its mouth. Now is the time to see if all that bluster and long long speeches that Hafiz-e-piggy and other politicians did in Pakistan was garam hawa or was there any substance to it.

[RajeshA]

Americans waking up to two-faced Pakistaniyat! Now if only Londonistan will follow suit!

Published on Jan 31, 2010
By Nadeem F. Paracha
Bananas

For long, many Pakistanis have wondered just how do certain Pakistani media men and religious leaders who have turned the obsessive act of badmouthing the US, Jews and liberals into a robust cottage industry, manage to travel so frequently to the US. Well, it seems the days of curiosity in this respect may be coming to an end. According to a front-page story in Dawn last Friday, four US Congressmen have asked Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, to refuse visas to those Pakistanis who are on record praising the killer of former Governor of Punjab, Salmaan Taseer.

There are reports that the US government is now seriously contemplating refusing visas to a number of Pakistani media personnel, lawyers and religious leaders who have been reported to have condoned the ghastly murder. These also include TV and print journalists and religious leaders who travel regularly to the US (and Europe). Most Pakistanis who were shocked by the jubilant reactions of certain people at Taseer’s assassination have squarely hailed the report of a possible US visa ban on these men and women.

[RajeshA]

And that would be 400% wajib as per Islamic Jurisprudence I'll bet.

Even otherwise, just like normal business practices in the subcontinent, a person who it is doubtful will pay, is usually asked to pay up first - put money on the table, before things start to move.

Time to see if Pakistan puts its money where it has put in its mouth. Now is the time to see if all that bluster and long long speeches that Hafiz-e-piggy and other politicians did in Pakistan was garam hawa or was there any substance to it.

I just find 3.5 million euros really peanuts for such an important case before the International Court of Arbitration. I am in favor of raising the money to 75 million euros at least. 10% of the costs should be borne by Mr. 10%. Let's see how many cases land up then in the ICA.

[SSridhar]

Gagan, IMO, this infection can spread to Pakistan too. While the Arab countries are fighting autarchy/autocracy, Pakistanis could be on the streets for stricter Islam. Ultimately, a small and vociferous section can create an anarchy and though Pakistan is twice bigger than Egypt, the geography is such that a mass movement in Karachi and on the stretch of GT Road from Lahore to Rawalpindi/Islamabad would have the same devastating effect in the present dire circumstances, as that in Egypt. JI & JUI (both factions) are capable of amassing a large gathering. The Pakiban, for their part, can mount spectacular attacks against the government and the Pakistani Army, something that the Ikhwanul Muslimeen is not doing in Egypt now. (I am certain that the Muslim Brotherhood is the invisible hand that is coordinating the spontaneous uprising in Egypt). The inflation, lack of electricity and gas, upcoming tax regime, overall poverty levels, rapidly increasing crimes, complete lack of governance, resentment for America, resentment against War on Terror are all a potent mix in the 'revolution' brew. If Brotherhood gains significantly in Egypt, it will certainly embolden the Islamists in Pakistan even more. Next few weeks will be crucial to watch in the Land of the Purest.

[RajeshA]

If Brotherhood gains significantly in Egypt, it will certainly embolden the Islamists in Pakistan even more. Next few weeks will be crucial to watch in the Land of the Purest.

SSridhar garu,
I as an Indian would not favor should something like that come to pass. I know BRF garus consider of primary importance that the cord joining Pakistan and America is cut, and if it means giving Jamaats and Taliban the reins of power, then so be it. I disagree somewhat with this view. I would like to see fragmentation in parallel, rather than a whole-scale transfer of power to the "Pakislamists".

A popular uprising right now, would only let the Jamaat-e-Islami, JUI-F and Jamaat-ud-Dawa in combination with an Pakislamist putsch in the Pakistani Army, take over power in Pakistan.

I don't think, that is really in India's interests!

[SSridhar]

The Washington Post reports that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon arsenal is larger than India’s:

After years of approximate weapons parity, experts said, Pakistan has now edged ahead of India, its nuclear-armed rival.

URL here: New estimates put Pakistan's nuclear arsenal at more than 100

Nothing surprising. After all, haven't we heard now for a decade that Pakistan has more nukes, better and more accurate delivery systems, tighter and fairer command&control systems ? Similar things we heard in 1965 about Patton tanks, Sabres & Starfighters etc.

[SSridhar]

I don't think, that is really in India's interests!

Rajesh, what I have stated is not what I wish or even do not wish. I am only saying what is a possibility. Certainly, the battering that Pakistan has received (from terrorism, natural disasters, utter lack of development etc.) is far more devastating than Egypt. The Islamists in Pakistan are more potent than it is in Egypt. Egypt has consistently put down the violent Islamists ruthlessly for several decades unlike complete complicity in Pakistan. The near homogeneity of Muslims in Egypt is in total contrast to fraction-laden Pakistani society. Added to this is the provincial discords, immigrant violence etc. The explosive mix is thus ready in Pakistan. All it takes is a determined few thousand and once the revolution starts it will be uncontrollable. The so-called silent majority will always remain silent.

[Sanku]

@RajeshA, et al -- on the issue of whether China will be able to step in effectively as a replacement for US as the chief handler of the terrorist state.

I would like to point out one dimension which has been missed in the context of the discussion: that of Indian response in both cases.

To explain what the discussion has focused on how effective China will be in that role, its constraints, possible new issues, handling of current ones etc etc. However the discussion assumes that Indian response to the very hostile actions by the combine will be same whether its TSPA+US or CPC+TSPA. A reflection perhaps of our level of confidence in GoI especially given the stellar record of current administration. However, I think that is being a wee bit pessimistic. Firstly India is still a democracy, and there is no reason to give up hope on future govts. Secondly even a WKK level govt like the current ones may respond different if US is replaced by China.

Let us examine some factors which can lead to different response. (note this is a purely objective list, I am not making a value judgment here)
1) Absence of NRIs in a large number (with a large number of MUTUs) to influence domestic and institutional behavior.
2) Absence of a large middle class linked to trade benefits with China.
3) Absence of past military conflict coloring views with US.
4) Presence of current border conflicts.
5) Geo-graphical distance, making any potential response easier or harder.
6) Presence of levers to influence affairs of a country (trade routes, local hostile populations)
7) Historical memory of govt to govt contacts being helpful or otherwise.

So basically how well TSP manages to get along with its latest master, also depends on the pressures put on the relationship, of which Indian pressures IMVHO are likely to be quite different.

======================

For the record on first issue of how well Chinese will handle Pak; I think

1) There is a difference between fathering and guiding a concept since inception and me-too piggy backing on a established concept.
2) A difference in physical build-up playing on the piskology of a race obsessed with TFTAness.
3) The distance allowing a player to play a "neutral" role and avoid blowback.

So clearly it is not difficult to see which view I subscribe to.

[Sanku]

I don't think, that is really in India's interests!

Rajesh, what I have stated is not what I wish or even do not wish. I am only saying what is a possibility.

Why? Serious question?

Why would a blatantly Islamist (as opposed to the current mask) be any worse? What factors are likely to be worse for India?

[sanjeevpunj]

Pakistan is producing nuclear weapons at a faster rate than in any other country in the world.Quoting Pakistan's Defense attache at its embassy in Washington, Post said the number of Pakistani nuclear weapons are heavily deployed near its border with India. This certainly is a disturbing news.
Read more at
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 396411.cms

[Raghavendra]

Wajib-ul-qatal party soon in pakistan

Karachi police arrests student on blasphemy allegations http://www.sify.com/news/karachi-police ... abehc.html

The Karachi police has registered a blasphemy case against a student for writing derogatory remarks against Prophet.

The police said Muhammad Samiullah, an intermediate student, was arrested on January 28, 2011 on the complaint of the Chief Controller Intermediate Board, who accused him of writing derogatory remarks in his answer sheets against Prophet Muhammad.

He said that Samiullah violated the blasphemy laws of Pakistan as he wrote unacceptable comments against Muhammad in his Urdu, Islamiat and Physics answer sheets.

The police said an FIR had been registered against the boy under 295-C of the Pakistan Penal Code (PPC) at Shahrah-e-Noor Jahan police station.

SP Zafar Iqbal said the police had obtained the boy's answer sheets before taking him into custody, adding that a challan in this regard had been presented in the court.

The SP also said Samiullah had written a confession letter, admitting to committing the mistake, and has sought apology for the same.

When contacted, an officer probing this case said the accused told investigators that he was brainwashed by his cousins, who came from Norway.

[Gagan]

This is no innocent brainwashed kid.

This is a well planned move to become wajib-ul-qatl in Pakistan and then seek Norweigian refuge.

[Gagan]

Time to see if Pakistan puts its money where it has put in its mouth. Now is the time to see if all that bluster and long long speeches that Hafiz-e-piggy and other politicians did in Pakistan was garam hawa or was there any substance to it.

I just find 3.5 million euros really peanuts for such an important case before the International Court of Arbitration. I am in favor of raising the money to 75 million euros at least. 10% of the costs should be borne by Mr. 10%. Let's see how many cases land up then in the ICA.

Exactly what came to my mind.
3.5 million euros is not a big amount, and I am sure that Pakistan will cough up that money.

The only thing that is sure to happen is this: There must be people who's brains are by now working overtime to try and find a way to embezzle part of the monies. Either they will over quote that amount and get it released, or use some complicated mechanism whereby the law firm gives them cuts on giving that law firm that case.

Someone in Pakistan is going to make a lot of money out of this.

[anandsgh]

I know this belongs to Benis Dhaga but still!!

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/three ... stan-82516

[Pranav]

ISI offered 1.5 million dollars to journalist to kill Indian envoy in Afghanistan

Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is allegedly reported to have offered 1.5 million US dollars (Rs.7.50 crores) to an Afghan journalist to assassinate India's Ambassador to Afghanistan Jayant Prasad and 0.8 million dollars (Rs.3.60 crores) to kill Baloch leader Brahmdagh Bugti.

In an interview to be aired on a Punjab-based television network tonight, Nawab Momand, who has worked with several leading media organizations, including Afghanistan's popular Tolo TV and Arman Radio, Afghanistan's first FM radio station, reveals that the ISI deposited 0.8 million USD (Rs.3.60 crores) with a Kabul jeweller to be paid to him on the day he killed Bugti, the grandson of the legendary Baloch leader, Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti.

But being true to his Pathan tradition of protecting a person who has sought shelter, Nawab Momand's conscience did not allow him to kill Bugti and he got in touch with the Afghan authorities.

The Afghan authorities recorded his further conversations with ISI contact man Haji Ayub, but when Afghan security was close to arresting the latter, he gave them the slip.

Thereafter, Momand claims in the 30-minute interview that the ISI stepped up pressure on him by setting a month-long deadline to accomplish the task.

When he failed to carry out the order, the ISI reportedly threatened to abduct and eliminate his family. Fearing this, Momand and his family fled from Kabul and are now living incognito, running from one place to another.

With his journalism career ruined and the collapse of a construction company that he was running in a partnership, Momand says he has been forced to seek refuge with the UN High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR).

Ever since his grandfather Nawab Akbar Bugti was killed allegedly by Pakistan troops in August 2006, Brahmdagh Bugti has remained underground in Pakistan. It is alleged that he is running the Baloch Liberation Movement from Afghanistan with the support of India's external intelligence agency - the Research Analysis Wing (RAW) - and the Government of Afghanistan.

Pakistan has alleged that the Research Analysis Wing (RAW) provided Brahmdagh with a passport, money and arms to run the insurgency movement in Balochistan.

Islamabad alleges that the Indian consulates at Kandahar and Jalalabad are indulging in providing arms and money to the anti-Pakistan forces functioning in the tribal areas of NWFP (now named Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) and Balochistan.

The Karzai Government had been denying his presence in Afghanistan. (ANI)

http://www.sify.com/news/isi-offered-1- ... cdadc.html