Telangana Monitor

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 01 Feb 2011 20:00

I do not think it is about that at this point. INC would not go for elections in the state till 2014.

At center, it is a different ball game.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Feb 2011 21:23

RamaY. Always try to be clear as to the point you want to make. I agree AP state elections now are dicey but if they can avoid till later they will.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 Feb 2011 22:23

There is news that chiranjeevi will demand BC status for his caste and CON party will approve a part of it to increase his standing among his caste to make up lost reddy votes. Then he will be admitted into CON party. Look at the pathetic state of AP. Naidu was focussing on the economy, growth and governance for 10 years. Now we fight about telangana, caste wars, reservations, movie dialogs... What a fall for AP? Gujarat, Bihar all embraced governance and growth. We live and breath chaos. It took a long time for NTR and Naidu to put us toasted the growth story. In 5 years, the scums of CON party (sonia and YSR) dragged us down the gutter.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 Feb 2011 22:41

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news ... an/744735/

Well well well... The backlash started... G venkataswamy asks Sonia to step down and make way for Indian. Read it all...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Feb 2011 22:44

VijayK, If PRP is aksing for BC status for their main supporters its a great let down and a betrayal. T

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 Feb 2011 23:40

That is the only way for chiru to stay relevant in AP. Once he becomes another CON man, no one will look at him. He needs to pump up his caste standing. BC status for their caste is a long term demand of kapus in Godavari districts. At least, CON woman is hoping that he will bring in their votes if reddys go for Jagan. I hope it backfires and ITALIAN mafia ends up with 5 seas or so in AP.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Feb 2011 23:54

INC is making majority of people forget their past and grovel before them for bread crumbs. As INC rule prolongs everyone will want to become ever lower.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Feb 2011 02:52

Multiple things are going on and finally (after an year and half?) INC seems to have a strategy to the crisis resolution. The winds finally are blowing against the formation of Telangana. But the flux at center is the only dampner in any political discussion of India and Telangana is no exception.

(1) racchabanda program started by CM KKR has a strategy. It is virtually a spending program formulated by the central congress party to create a new loot. This has two aspects. One to bring the INC class voters into good humor. In addition, and mainly to spread the loot to the cadre. The cadre includes those hobnobbing with YSJ and also specifically the TRS and the T-Congress. This particular program has a lot of accoutability structure inside congress party and wanted to ensure that the loot reaches the INC voters and INC cadre. Important thing is both TRS and Jagan are being seen as equal and the decision to reduce both movements.

(2) Stability of the government is being ensured using first PRP and next MIM and in the worst case scenario with TRS. They will have to go to TRS only if Jagan really takes out 50 or 60 MLAs. The belief is racchabanda will ensure the creation of "new mafia" replacing the ones created by YSR.

(3) Regarding Kapus as BCs is being floated to give an argument of respect to Chiru. Basically the party is being wound off and he will be no one and that is a certainity. Kapus as BCs is like Jats as BC and Gujjars as STs. This will enrage the rest of BC population and I gaurantee that TDP will lit the fires in all the BC communities to corner Kapus and also Congress party. BCs are solidly with TDP and it is their strength. In summary Kapus as BCs will not fly but it will give a room and a window for Chiru to transfer into INC.

The game to me is like this:
(1) INC in the next two to three weeks will go for United Andhra Pradesh
(2) Using racchabanda they are planning to checkmate Jagan in Seemandhra and TRS in Telangana. Spread the loot
(3) T-Council will be formed for Telangana specific loot spread. TRS along with T-INC will be sharing this and this will kill the movement
(4) Jagan and TRS needs quick resolution of their movements otherwise they cannot sustain a longer version of their movements. They are bound to make mistakes. KCR already made a mistake of openly abusing Andhras with the worst foul language in his latest speech. It is only time before Jagan also will make such things.
(5) They are using every single corruption and criminal stuff that happened during the INC regime and are being hoisted on Jagan. He will have to bring his battery of judges and lawyers and start spending on that. He will be put to a lot of mess and discredit.

Using Chiru, MIM and probably TRS - INC is finally going for a long overhaul. In their calculations TDP is not there as this is a back to basics operation.

My take - After all this U turn INC has to fight with TDP in a straight contest which is the reason for creating the chaos in ther first place. All INC will acheive is it will remain relevant in AP politics. Probably it will lose to TDP in the next election but they may pull a miracle after first becoming relevant. Becoming relevant may take them to 2012 end. Creating a miracle may take them to 2014. Now what could be the miracle? For the answer, we have to see the Tamil Nadu politics of DMK+INC strategy to win upcoming Assembly elections.

Jai ho Sonia!!!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Feb 2011 03:00

Can PRP survive as an entity after betraying the cause of so many supporters? If getting BC status was the only perk they want they could have got it without so much heartburn.

I know many kapus and they would be offended to not say the least to be called Backward.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Feb 2011 03:10

ramana wrote:Can PRP survive as an entitiy after betraying the cause of so many supporters? If getting BC status was the only perk they want they could have got it without so much heartburn.

I know many kapus and they would be offended to not say the least to be called Backward.

Kapus are such a huge group with several different names based on regions and districts. What you are saying may be true for those from Krishna and Godavari districts. I hate to say this but no one says no to BC categorization.

The Kapus in Vijag, Srikakulam and Vijayanaganam districs are called as thoorpu Kapu ( eastern Kapus) and they are already in BC lists though they are even related to Kapus from delta region via marriages. In Guntur and Prakasam districts they are called as Telagas (fierce factional fighters with Reddys in Palanadu region). Probalby they are called as balijas in Rayalaseema. In some other regions they are called as Ontari, munnuru Kapus etc. etc.

Some of them are already in BC lists. The game that is started initially by P.Shiv Shankar (INC strongman during IG and RG), later by Mudragada Padmanabham and now by Chiranjeevi is bring these filthily rich delta based Kapus into BCs. It is exaclty like Ajit Singh trying to get Jats into BC list.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Feb 2011 04:09

This sums up the INC strategy. Left is KCR and Right is Chiranjeevi.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Feb 2011 04:18

TDP in HIndu is saying this clears up the siutation. It will be bilateral(INC vs TDP) in Telangana and tri-lateral (INC -Jagan-TDP) elsewhere. Wouldnt be surprised if tactical alliances are not there between the latter two.

Where is Lok Satta in this?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 02 Feb 2011 04:32

ramana wrote:Can PRP survive as an entity after betraying the cause of so many supporters? If getting BC status was the only perk they want they could have got it without so much heartburn.

I know many kapus and they would be offended to not say the least to be called Backward.

I think it would be two items
- BC status for Kapus and
- Polavaram project

Between now and 2014 (3+ yrs) INC will ensure that it holds the power (using PRP, MIM and TRS). That will kill Jagan and TRS politically. In a face to face contest between INC's Chiru/KKR and CBN in 2014, anything can happen.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 02 Feb 2011 04:33

ramana wrote: Where is Lok Satta in this?

Long gone.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Feb 2011 04:40

I meant where do their supporters go. Had ~ 2% vote share last time.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 02 Feb 2011 05:05

I think they will come back to CBN.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 02 Feb 2011 05:14

There are some problems with the INC and Sonia Criminal gang. The Jagan gang will not allow stable congress rule. Jagan gang will see to that PRP will be divided. Some of them Reddys and can be purchased. So the numbers game may not be so simple.

I have participated in the elections in AP so it is not possible to transfer votes in AP. For a wholesale vote transfer people should be like a bunch of goats. But in AP there is huge level of education and awareness. So I have my serious doubts on the 17% vote transfer in any nearby elections from PRP TO INC.

Chiru himself lost elections last time in one of the two seats. So it is a problem. I agree with Muppallaji's views that Sonia gang will go for united AP option with some regional counsel of Telangana and also may be for Rayalaseema. Joining with PRP also an indication for united AP. TRS will be happy for doing some extortion in the Hyderabad city or will be accomidated in the central cabinet. But INC has to play hardball in case of any serious agitation etc. They can not do another mistake like December9th now. I think they have already learned a bitter lesson and are slowly taking careful steps one after another.

But from what I gather there is lot of movement in the rural areas particularly in the areas where non Telangana Telugu people have purchased lands and settled decades back doing agriculture. The maoists are now openly telling local villagers once Telangana is realised all these farmers will be sent back and their land will be distributed among local Telangana people. It is like that 3 Lac jobs but can be a very problamatic.

IN any event in any elections there will be significant advantage to TDP

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Feb 2011 06:15

Let me summerize:
(1) It is United AP and no Telangana unless a catastrophe occurs in Indian politics.

(2) INC is consolidating to become relevant and the fight in the next election is between INC and TDP. The longer they take this the shorter the life span of Jagan and TRS types. Jagan is more trouble due to his wealth. Jagan will be reigned in using CBI by opening his and his dad's past. The beauty is that all the sins of INC will be that of the dead YSR and his son.

(3) What is the strategy if it is straight fight between INC and TDP? In the good olden traditional way, it will be advantage TDP. However, in the changed circumstances since 2009, the approach for INC will be that is being adopted currently by DMK. The TN elections in May will give us the clue if that works.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 02 Feb 2011 07:57

The DMK said to have offered 75 seats to INC in Tamilnadu. Slowly INC is gaining ground there.

In AP it is reported that Telangana leaders of INC are now up set that their party is getting close or even mearge PRP with it. It is said Chiru is being offered Central Cabinet post. This will force Jagan to take some action in arranging a no confidence motion in the Assmebly. His supporters in INC can not do it without losing their seats due to anti defection law and TDP may not oblige him unless it is full advantage TDP. At present there is advantage TDP. But they have the confidence to bite the bullet? I don't know.

In agree with Muppallajis conclusions but one problem remains. The hardcore T vadis like Madhu Yashki and TRS & naxals may not allow INC to implimente its plan to slowly regain its party in AP. In any event COngress needs to do very very careful handling of AP if it wants to survive in AP.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 02 Feb 2011 08:02

^^I don't know on what basis posters here almost routinely cast doubt on INC future prospects in AP.

Seems to me, the INC has managed to pull yet another rabbit out of its Nehru topi and checkmated Jagan, TRS and TDP - sab ek saath. Lawd knows, am no admirer of INC but can't help but admire the way they played their somewhat weakened hand.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Feb 2011 08:13

Hari - I agree with you.

But the only things is INC went full throttle to make sure the contest is multi-cornered so that it can even win with depleted vote percentages. In 2009 they lost 10% of their votes but still won the elections. Now in this strategy they are bringing everyone into its fold to survive. All the manchurian candidates/parties are being swallowed just to survive the onslaught of Jagan. The point is it will survive and reduce Jagan.

After doing all this mess, now in 2014 it has to plan for a win over TDP in a straight contest. The worst part could be Jagan contesting 2013 in all constituencies which could be a role-reversal.

I personally like congress to survive and thrive on in AP for the next 2 years and also resolve Telangana issue permanently whatever that may be.

TDP is looking for a situation where the Telangana issues in not there and also there is a straight contest or a three cornered contest with Jagan splitting INC votes. It will wait out and that is its best strategy.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 02 Feb 2011 08:18

Isn't Jagan and INC merely an intra-INC food fight? Why does it matter when Jagan has said he won't support NDA? At worst the relationship looks like Lalu and Sonia.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Feb 2011 08:24

Hari If you were reading your e-mail, you, would of all people, know this is the outcome.

Sama and dana are the remaining tools if "Rajneeti" is ruled out for reciprocal effects. If so the most likely coalitions will form. Its a congruence of interests. PRP cant join Jagan as they have to show something tangible to their supporters and they already took money from YSR for being a spoiler in last elections. KCR will get his loot legalised.

I agree with Narayana Rao garu about Chiranjivi's PRP. It will get reduced in a real elections for what he is doing is playing with people's trust. This BC issue is very serious. Many folks have invested socially in Sanskritization.Heck they are more ritualistic/particular than Brahmins and now he wants to take them backwards? These will desert him. In Rayalseema he depends on YSR tolerance. So he is a non entity and will go back into the wilderness and the community will wait for next leader in a couple of decades.

BTW folks there are no hardcore T or A supporters. They are all hardcore self supporters. The only one who really died in a hunger strike was Potti Sriramulugaru. Now you understand his sacrifice.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 02 Feb 2011 08:30

vera_k wrote:Isn't Jagan and INC merely an intra-INC food fight? Why does it matter when Jagan has said he won't support NDA? At worst the relationship looks like Lalu and Sonia.

Just as Chiru, LokSatta were the manchurian candidates eating into TDP votes in 2009 which helped congress survive 10% vote loss, Jagan's strength eats into INC's votes.

As long as TDP is able to maintain its last time voting percentage, TDP can win big coasta/rayalseema.

TRS is trying to eat into TDPs vote in telangana. This is where Babu's challenge lies. As long as he can keep his flock in telangana, TDP can emerge a big winner all over the state.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Feb 2011 08:33

Ravi, Hindu had a news report in today's edition about this very issue.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Feb 2011 08:45

ramana wrote:Ravi, Hindu had a news report in today's edition about this very issue.

ramana garu, I am trying to find the Hindu link but couldn't. The portal is too bizzare these days with all sorts of old news items combined with latest news. If you have could you post the link here.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 02 Feb 2011 08:46

This is more of desperate move from Congress to save the govt. The verbal attack by Venkata Swamy against Sonia is extraordinary. With one of his son being a congress MP, we cannot rubbish these attacks as rants from an old leader in despair. There must be a significant group in Telangana Congress vexed with party high command, and prospective merger with PRP is the last straw for them. The Congress HC literally became laughing stock of congress MLAs and MPs.

The only way T congress will cool down is if Chiru changes his position on Samaikhyandhra. We all know what this will do to his credibility, if at all anything is left. Therefore, the rumor mill of making Kapus as BC has some credibility. But it is too small victory to counter his sagging reputation, especially if he flip flops on samaikhyandhra.

Overall, another dumb move from Congress. Their antagonism and frustration against Jagan is making them lose their senses. I wonder who is in control of Congress HC now.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Feb 2011 08:49

Muppalla wrote:
ramana wrote:Ravi, Hindu had a news report in today's edition about this very issue.
ramana garu, I am trying to find the Hindu link but couldn't. The portal is too bizzare these days with all sorts of old news items combined with latest news. If you have could you post the link here.

Here it is:
TDP happy with developments

TDP happy with developments

Special Correspondent

‘Praja Rajyam decision on supporting government brings clarity'

PR played spoilsport in last elections by cutting into TDP's vote, say party leaders

HYDERABAD: There is quite sense of relief in Telugu Desam camp over the Praja Rajyam gravitating towards Congress as it would mean elimination of one stumbling block that gave a harrowing time to the party in 2009 Assembly elections.

Though the party is yet to discuss the issue threadbare to come up with a response, party president N. Chandrababu Naidu is believed to have conferred with senior leaders available in city on Monday night before leaving for Kurnool. He is expected to hold a proper meeting with seniors when he returns to city on Wednesday.

In the party's preliminary analysis, the development would help it to the extent that one political adversary is down and out. Senior leaders recalled how PR played spoilsport in the last elections by cutting into the party's vote and denying it a victory. The PR bagged 18 seats and got 15.6 per cent vote share. This, along with Lok Satta's vote share of two per cent was cited as the main cause for TDP's debacle. Mr. Naidu himself blamed these two parties for “ensuring the success of Congress” and that the latter's win was by default.

Now that the PR has indicated that it would bail out the Congress in difficulty if not merge into it, TDP leaders feel the development has lent clarity to the political situation. And if TRS too decides to go with Congress and in the event of mid term elections, it is going to be a straight contest between Congress and TDP led alliances in Telangana and triangular one in Andhra/Rayalaseema taking into account the party to be formed by former Kadapa MP, Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy.

Mr. Naidu is expected to take stock of the political situation in a day or two.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Feb 2011 09:25

Hari and Muppalla garu, See any flaws?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Feb 2011 09:37

I don't see any flaws and going as orchestrated.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Feb 2011 09:49

Dasari wrote:The latest news is that PRP (Chiranjeevi party) is joining the ministry by giving support to Congress. With support from 16 MLAs from PRP and 7 MLAs from MIM, Congress is extending their majority to withstand any jolt from YS Jagan. With this consolidation, they may even have the luxury of suspending some MLAs from Jagan group and give strong message to any fence sitters. There is also a rumor that Chiru may even merge the party with Congress depending on what kind of positions that PRP leaders get.

This is perhaps the best indication so far that separate T will not be formed and it may not be in the agenda in 2014.

http://www.suryaa.com/main/showNews.asp ... ntId=15266

The above news article matches exactly with your two posts (this one and a bit of the latest one). I am not traslating as it is very long but Dasari's post summarizes the article. In simple summary - INC moved towards status quo.

One disturbing point is - I don't know if true or not but INC is still planning to keep the issue burning probably to check the rise of TDP.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 02 Feb 2011 09:53

Narayana Rao wrote:There are some problems with the INC and Sonia Criminal gang. The Jagan gang will not allow stable congress rule. Jagan gang will see to that PRP will be divided. Some of them Reddys and can be purchased. So the numbers game may not be so simple.

So far no major ops on Jagan on Corruption/Civilian case side. They are trying Paritala case, that will be red line if they escalate. I'm not sure how long Congress stretches Jagan issue before both become irrelevant.
Congress can't damage Jagan without being damaged and that is big trump card for Jagan.

PRP is YSR-funded op regardless of who was brain behind it. INC can't rely on any advantage except for temporary. You will see some Ops on non-Jagan Congress folks and some Ops for TDP advantage so they can bring noisy Congressmen back to motherfold.

Overall, Congress is undoing relying on third parties to divide Opposition and bringing back to be relevant (to quote Muppala). In that sense, Jagan coming back to Congress will not be surprise unless Jagan has grown beyond Congress.

But from what I gather there is lot of movement in the rural areas particularly in the areas where non Telangana Telugu people have purchased lands and settled decades back doing agriculture. The maoists are now openly telling local villagers once Telangana is realised all these farmers will be sent back and their land will be distributed among local Telangana people. It is like that 3 Lac jobs but can be a very problamatic.

Regarding Agricultur/urbae land rates, wealth is slowly moving to non-T. I was thinking prices may have gone up by 20-30% but to my surprise in some areas it is 2-3 times since 2009.

Banks will be in big trouble if T-vadis will have their way.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 02 Feb 2011 10:06

INteresting, ramana garu.

Here're from pollster sri GVLN Rao on twitter:
http://twitter.com/#!/GVLNRAO

Break-away Telangana Congress on anvil. Venkat Swamy outburst against Sonia is precursor to launch. Will tie up with TRS to sweep polls.

AP Cong to meet same fate as TN's when Moopanar floated TMC. Jagan's party in coastal/RS regions & splinter group in Telangana to bury it.

Chiranjevi's flop film "Prajarajyam" finds eager CONG buyers. Chiru will be better off with merger. Anyways, his party is a mega dud.

He will find it difficult to win even his MLA seat. If realistic, he'll merge & try to rise politically. Else, he is doomed.

FWIW, I guess.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Feb 2011 10:18

So counter moves are underway. So what really irked G Venkatswamy?

Hindu was reporting most INC factions all spoke out against him uniformly.

LINK

Their takleef is its rumored he will be ousted from the CWC and hence outburst is like self serving.

It could still represent outrage at being manipulated.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 02 Feb 2011 23:17

I somehow have this feeling that INC will go for a INC-NCP kind of arrangement with YSJ

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 03 Feb 2011 00:39

suryag wrote:I somehow have this feeling that INC will go for a INC-NCP kind of arrangement with YSJ

Letting Jagan become NCP like party is disastrous for Congress. Whole problem started with limiting Jagan to RS which
he didn't want and want to get YSR legacy for whole AP. Operation subregionalization (TRS for T, PRP for C, Jagan for RS)
to reduce TDP vote share created more confusion and rebelling.

Best for Congress is to rollback everything and go head on with TDP. YSR was central figure and operator for all subverting
operations but later Central Congress took over and creating more havoc as they are missing anyone to fill YSR role.

Congress can give larger role for Jagan to take care of RS and Telangana and nurture Kapu leadership to hold the coastal.
This way Congress can control both RS and Telangana. T-Kapus may dilute their stance on T as they want to align with
Coastal Kapus to compete with T-Reddys. This calls for killing TRS.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 03 Feb 2011 00:49

Script ready for Praja Rajyam-Congress merger on Sunday

HYDERABAD: The much-speculated merger between the Congress and the Chiranjeevi-led Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) could materialise as soon as the coming weekend.

Highly placed sources told TOI that Chiranjeevi is expected to meet Congress president Sonia Gandhi on Sunday. According to the script for the meeting, shared by these sources with TOI, Sonia will formally invite the cine idol to merge his party into the Congress. After this, Chiranjeevi will call a meeting of his party MLAs, who too would be in Delhi. The 17 MLAs will then authorise Chiranjeevi to take a decision in the best interests of the state.
...
...

With the merger of PRP into the Congress, the Kiran Kumar Reddy government in Andhra Pradesh will get a new lease of life. The government, which has only a slender majority, is being rocked by the rebellion of YS Jaganmohan Reddy, who is threatening to have a no-confidence motion moved in the assembly.

Chiranjeevi will also benefit, because Jagan is assiduously wooing PRP MLAs and trying to break the party.
...

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 03 Feb 2011 08:35

Seems to be most likelything and congress may by month end come out for United AP with some Counsel for the Telangana region.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 06 Feb 2011 20:06

Chiranjivi has jumped into congress along with his party so consolidation programme of the congress in AP is fully on. Rumor are Jagan will be in Jail in two or three months. Lot of criminal cases including the murder of Paritala Ravi will be reopened and that may the end of Jagan gang.

For Telangana MP's met today and decided to continue to put presure on the party.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 06 Feb 2011 20:57

What a misuse of popular support? One thing is clear. Chiranjeevi would be a mere puppet in the hands of Congress HC, more so than any other leader. If he disagrees with Congress HC, what can he do? Come out and rant against Congress, with his credibility completely gone down the drain. From now onwards, if Sonia says sit, he has to sit or if she says stand, he has to stand. Congress got complete supremacy over him. He will be given some doggy bone in the state. Very interesting to see how he will twist his stance on samaikhyandhra or polavaram. Very clearly Politics in the state reached an all time low.