Ulcers & the Congress
The ruling party is in worse shape than is readily apparent, reports N.V.Subramanian.
2 February 2011:
The (short-lived) revolt of the Andhra/ Telangana Congress stalwart, G.Venkataswamy, reflects both a growing crisis in the ruling party and the power-struggle at the top. Since the health of a nation is often determined by the physiology of the party in power,
it is necessary to lay bare the crisis and the power-struggle in the Congress.
The single-biggest crisis facing the party is that Rahul Gandhi is not up to grade -- and may never be. The 2G scam and other controversies have obviously made it too risky for Rahul to succeed Manmohan Singh in this term. But even without the associated risks, there is understanding and consensus among top Congress managers that Rahul has taken fright to the top job.
One high-profile Congressman has described the Gandhi scion to his closest aides as "murkh", which would be potentially scandalous and defamatory to translate into English. More than one party heavyweight has complained of "losing hair" (not just figuratively) and of "losing sleep" in teaching Rahul Gandhi the political ropes.
This would be funny except for its reflection of the serious succession crisis in the Congress that is so dynasty-fixated.
Congress insiders say that the Bihar debacle has taken Rahul Gandhi by shock and destroyed his confidence. All the youngsters he hoped to stock the party with in Bihar and revolutionize politics, so to speak, have been routed by the Nitish Kumar-BJP combine. Earlier keen closely to supervise the Assam elections, now Rahul Gandhi is making distance, anxious to escape blame for any disastrous performance. In UP, where the Congress was hell-bent on going alone, because it was to be Rahul's launch pad, there is a scramble to get allies against the indomitable Mayawati. In a public meeting recently in the state, the Congress general secretary and Rahul Gandhi's political tutor, Digvijay Singh, confessed to as much.
The second part of the Congress's crisis relates to the 2G scam and other controversies that have provoked a vicious power struggle both in the UPA government and in the party. There is a feeling in party circles that
if urgent accommodation with the 2G JPC demand of the opposition and especially the BJP/ NDA is not made, the Congress family leadership of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi could be in serious trouble and be pugnaciously challenged.
Seeing the Sonia/ Rahul Gandhi dynasty at its weakest,
new power equations have emerged in the party and in government. Congress insiders say that broadly prime minister
Manmohan Singh and home minister P.Chidambaram are on one side in opposing finance minister Pranab Mukherjee who is said loosely to be allied with Digvijay Singh.
This writer wrote some days ago about the politics of Mukherjee publicly in opposing Manmohan Singh's offer to depose before the PAC in the 2G scandal. Mukherjee who had all but given up hope of becoming PM sees another chance of it at the cost of Manmohan Singh, the broad argument being that the prime minister is keener to protect his personal image of incorruptibility than save the Congress and particularly its leadership. But Mukherjee is not as trusted by Sonia as Manmohan Singh, with Pranab's rush to declare himself Indira Gandhi's successor after her nineteen eighty-four assassination still held against him.
The other battle is between Pranab and Chidambaram, and this is not solely on account of the fact that Mukherjee has been a less than able finance minister (what a fall from foreign affairs and defence), with inflation raging under his charge (although the PM's favourite for the job in the recent reshuffle, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, would have been a crashing disaster).
Allegations of phone-tapping have been traded on all sides, of which the Niira Radia tapes are a significant but tiny episode.
Congress leaders say that there is some sort of understanding that if for any reason Manmohan Singh has to step aside, he will name Chidambaram to succeed him.
To counter that, Pranab Mukherjee and Digvijay Singh apparently are working together. Whatever maybe
Digvijay's private views of the prime minister, he
has not hidden his animosity for Chidambaram. It is common knowledge that both
Chidambaram and Digvijay are playing for prime-ministerial stakes if Rahul Gandhi cops out and a successor to Manmohan Singh or Pranab Mukherjee has to be chosen.
All in all, the Congress is not a united ship.
Images of the destruction of the Mughal Empire are being invoked in the similarity of the Deccan's challenge to Aurangzeb and the troubles that have erupted for the Congress in Andhra Pradesh.

Indeed, the
more historically-minded in the party are referring to Y.S.Jaganmohan Reddy's Andhra Pradesh as the "southern ulcer", which makes G.Venkataswamy's revolt more critical than it appears at first blush.
This is not to suggest that the UPA government is about to fall, or that there is an immediate major threat to Sonia and Rahul Gandhi's family control of the Congress. But more than in any other trade,
success is everything in politics. The odour of defeat ranks from the current leadership of the Congress. And if there is no overhaul of the party hierarchy -- including a stepping aside of Sonia/ Rahul Gandhi for a genuinely elected leadership --
it could mean slow death for the Congress.