West Asia News and Discussions

[Prem]

Sir Rahul Mehta International
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2011 ... rom-india/
India Journal: What the Middle East Can Learn from IndiaSearch India Real Time

Democracy, even if it gains widespread traction, won’t solve the Middle East’s problems overnight or even in the next several decades perhaps. It may very well solve very few of the problems. Jobs may be at the heart of the protests and democracy, in and of itself, will do little to create employment.Democracy does have its benefits. In India, we have no issues accessing Twitter or Facebook. The press is free and so is speech. People protest on the streets regularly. The Indian state does a good job of ensuring that the fundamental rights of people are protected. It’s not perfect — far from it — and it’s ever-evolving. But for the most part, it works. The burkha and the bikini co-exist here. Temples, churches, mosques and gurdwaras operate freely. Freedom of religion, press, speech, assembly and, I dare add, mobile and the Internet, are now well entrenched in Indian society.That will be the good part of democracy, if it takes hold in your countries. To ensure that, you will need to have the basics of democracy: free and fair elections, a professional army subject to civilian oversight, an independent judiciary, and a professional bureaucracy. Those elements get you in the gates.
But you have a chance to make Democracy Version 2.0.
India and the West are doing so in fits and starts but you can do it from the get-go. Democracy 2.0 would have at its foundation the building blocks discussed above but it would also seek to end (or at least limit) corruption, crony capitalism and feudal politics. At its heart, it would try to promote good governance.The elements are simple, the implementation difficult.

Corruption famously tries to hide in every nook and cranny it can. Shine a spotlight on it. In London, Mayor Boris Johnson put many records online. Inflated prices paid by the city were brought down and new applications developed that have helped solve traffic problems. In India, the Right to Information law has helped uncover scams and improve the efficiency of government. But these are just small steps. The Middle East’s new democracies can minimize corruption by freeing information and data.

Second, develop a scorecard. It sounds too consultant-like but it helps. Track and measure progress and put the results online for everyone. The Indian Cabinet Secretariat is doing that now. Scorecards are becoming more common in governments across the world. They are not an end to themselves but serve as a good measure to gauge progress.Third, build institutions that help prevent corruption and crony capitalism. This involves some tough choices, such as limiting nepotism in elected office. It may go against the notion of democracy but prevent the children of MPs from “inheriting” their seats.It may not be fair to the children, but it is fair to democracy. Feudal families exist not only in dictatorships but democracies across the world. Weaker results can be achieved with term limits. In the U.S., there are two men who have served in Congress for more than 50 years. Limit the terms. Dynastic politics is dangerous anywhere but more so in new democracies.Also, protect your natural resources. Develop a system like Norway’s that ensures that the people receive the benefits of the natural resources that belong to them. Build strong anti-corruption units and procurement systems: Procurement is an incredibly important component of government and is often overlooked. Develop a strong procurement officer corps, pay them more but make their finances open to all. This will also help to limit corruption and crony capitalism.Democracy will test your patience. Yet it is an addictive love. And it is an evolving process. You have the chance to leapfrog other democracies with Democracy 2.0. The Internet is a powerful weapon and it is enabling you to earn your freedom. It can also help you build your democracy and ensure good governance. Just don’t expect it to happen overnight.

[svinayak]

IS that RMs real photo

[ramana]

Prem that not RM's article.

[shyamd]

Folks big news on the UAE - Oman spy issue.

Big names involved. Ex senior heads of RAFO, Internal Security etc. Even HMs driver. 15 people in total. Tip off came from Iran.

Oman has been flying jets close to the UAE border. Sultan Qaboos didn't attend GCC summit in Abu Dhabi. Arrests took place in November. In the annual dubai boat race, yachts were not allowed into Omani waters.

[AKalam]

Prashant Agrawal's blog letter addressing Arab protesters, in above post by Prem, is a good one:

As mentioned earlier, from our own experience in Bangladesh, where we had the same moments of exuberance in 1991 at the fall of Ershad, in 20 years we have seen steady progress, some visible ups and downs, but it has been moving in the right direction, so we would not have it any other way. Army will never again be used as a tool against the people, although they keep trying to come back at times of leadership crisis.

He also mentions internet and other technological tools. More than ever it is now possible to organize and at the same time inform and educate, as education and nutrition are two building blocks to create better human beings who can in the end make democracy a successful project. A democracy of half-fed, malnourished, ill informed and uneducated population very often is hijacked and diverted from the goal of pursuing real interests of the masses.

[ramana]

ShyamD, The Oman-UAE sqabble looks like the Liliputian war. If they keep at it bigger fish will swallow them.

[RamaY]

Prem that not RM's article.

IS that RMs real photo

I think he meant the international version of RM-bhai!!!

[putnanja]

BACK TO THE WALL - - Egyptian and Indian societies have a lot in common - K.P. Nayar

The year was 1995. P.V. Narasimha Rao was in Cairo on a whirlwind visit on his way to New York to take part in a commemorative session of the general assembly to mark the 50th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations. Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s president, who now finds himself with his back to the wall, told Rao that he had just cut off all telephone links with Pakistan.
...
...
Mubarak’s action, he told the Indian prime minister, came after the Egyptian customs discovered that a large shipping consignment from Karachi to Alexandria, which was described in its bill of lading as automobile spare parts, was actually made up of weapons for use by those who were being built up by Islamabad then as its proxies in a global terrorist web that is being acknowledged today as being a threat to everyone from Wellington to Washington.

Rao had been telling his fellow prime ministers as well as presidents and kings about how Pakistan was bleeding India through a low-intensity war exporting terrorism across the border, but no one really cared. His warnings that Pakistan would not stop with India or Afghanistan — where it had already prepared the Taliban for a takeover of Kabul a year later — and would facilitate the tentacles of a worldwide web of terror had fallen on deaf ears. Mubarak was the first leader of any significant international standing to sense this threat from Pakistan as far back as 1995 and act on it early on within his country.
...
This anecdote, which few people in India now remember in the rush to copy America in everything and in New Delhi’s obsession with emerging as a “global power”, is being recalled here not to praise Mubarak or to pass any judgment on the remarkable events in Cairo and Alexandria during the last 10 days in the context of how he did, indeed, turn around Indo-Egyptian relations after the coolness that set in during the presidency of his assassinated predecessor, Anwar Sadat.

However, as events unfold in Cairo, there seems to be very little appreciation in India that Mubarak’s undoing was his ill-advised closeness to the United States of America and Israel, a slow descent from the once dizzy heights of his country’s leadership of not only the Arab world, but also the process of decolonization in Africa until the legendary Gamal Abdel Nasser’s death.

...
India has much to reflect about the reasons behind the current popular uprising in Egypt. Unfortunately, neither New Delhi’s chattering classes nor the pundits on Indian television want to acknowledge that there is a lot in common between Indian and Egyptian societies. Both have a middle class which has done well on account of economic liberalization and the embrace of Western values by their respective leaders. Both have a highly skilled workforce which includes doctors, engineers and scientists. Both have an educated youth, whose full potential has not been realized, largely because of the wrong policies of their respective leaders. Just as in India, Egypt’s population is bursting at the seams at slightly above 800 million because of a Green Revolution and rapid advances in medicine and health care locally.
...
...

[ramana]

putnanja thanks for that KP Nayar article. Its true what he says about the coolness in Egypt -India relations under Sadat.

My father, a lawyer had clients of many backgrounds. Some who had been to Mishr (Egypt) told him about the Sadat cold shouldering Indians soon after taking over from Nasser in late 1960s. He had not yet fought the Yom Kippur war. So there were no Western influences. I with my big mouth said it could be he was Islamic. Was told about his English wife and suppressing MBhoods. So shut myself.

Mubarak to his credit restored the relations.

BTW typo in the article. Egypt population is ~80M not 800M

[Prem]

IS that RMs real photo

Rahul Bhai is on face book .

[ramana]

SwamyG, From the KP Nayar article liked by putnanja

Like on Egypt, a lot has been written last month about the absence of democracy having forced the Tunisian strongman, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, to flee Tunis as his regime crumbled in the face of a popular uprising. In fact, though, democracy played only a part in Tunisia’s so-called jasmine revolution.

This columnist observed Tunisia’s elections when two opposition candidates were allowed to run against Ben Ali for the first time. On the day the president won a sweeping victory, both those candidates held press conferences to announce that they too had actually voted for Ben Ali, notwithstanding their candidature, because they were convinced that Ben Ali’s win was better for Tunisia than their own.

Tunisia is a small country which thrived on tourism from Europe and Australia for its spectacular beaches, balmy weather and the Jewish and Islamic centres in Djerba, a charming island off the coast. Tunisia’s tolerance and cosmopolitanism, encouraged by Ben Ali and his predecessor, Habib Bourguiba, the independence leader, ensured that it received about 5.5 million tourists annually. The global economic crisis crippled Tunisia’s tourism industry in 2008 and has brought in its wake massive closures of businesses and unemployment.

The global crisis has also meant a big decline in Tunisia’s exports: 75 per cent of Tunisia’s exports traditionally went to Europe. Dubai’s woes compounded Ben Ali’s problems since the emirate was one of the largest investors in the country. In addition, rising commodity prices worldwide brought misery to Tunisians who rely heavily on food imports. They blamed Ben Ali for their misery and took to the streets when, in fact, he was not to blame for the rising cost of food, just as the UPA government should not be blamed solely for rising commodity prices in India.

Tunisia’s government, like those in Iceland and several other European States, collapsed largely because of the crisis in world capitalism and because the close economic links between Tunis and the European Union made its economy extremely vulnerable to external factors. Until the global economic crisis, Tunisia was considered the most competitive economy in Africa with a population that enjoyed one of the highest gross domestic products in the Arab world. For a people who were used to such a standard of living, the fall was precipitous and unnerving, and in many ways Ben Ali became a scapegoat. The absence of democracy made it imperative that he should flee and not seek a mandate the way Manmohan Singh would have done.

So there you have candid and truthful account of Tunisia crisis. BTW I hear there is a cartel of food commodity brokers engineering the crisis around the world and they have their mouthpieces in news media scaring up scarcity stories. A small crop failure in one place is made into a commodity panic in that product.

There was cotton scare recently. Onion we know.

Now there is winter wheat scare in Eastern Europe.

[Pranav]

As I said before, remember that this is not about Mubarak - he is and was history - this is about the 2011 elections.

Not about Mubarak per se, but about Mubarak, his family and his cronies collectively.

One has to focus on the role of the western powers in galvanizing the opposition, regarding which many reports have already been cited on this thread.

Another interesting analysis is from the Foreign Policy Research Institute, from July 2009.

The U.S. and Egypt Since the Suez Crisis by Trudy J. Kuehner - http://www.fpri.org/footnotes/1423.2009 ... esuez.html

Some quotes from there -

"There is a sense that the relationship has run its course...

"Its foundations are either weak or obsolete.

"The Egyptian-Israeli peace is cold...

"The U.S. in the 1970s did not have bases throughout the Persian Gulf. Thirty years later, U.S. military bases dot the Gulf.

"Now, there are no Soviets to contain. This relationship has been running on bureaucratic inertia.

"So what should policymakers do? The debate falls along three axes.

"First, some argue that we should go back to authoritarian stability...

"The second axis around which the debate revolves is that we need to undertake a program of democratization and reform in Egypt...

"We need to provide some sort of soft landing...

"Finally, the third stream of thought, an emerging one, is that ... we need to step back from this relationship...
"There is no compelling reason to have a strategic relationship with Egypt, or for Egypt to be the second largest recipient of our foreign aid."

Typically, western supported dictators lose their sheen after a life-time of service and corruption. Furthermore, if they remain entrenched in power for too long, they may develop nationalistic tendencies. It seems that both these trends were there in the case of Mubarak.

The west had the option of waiting until somebody else took advantage of the disillusionment, or alternatively to actively support the opposition, ease out the old horse, and try to install a chosen new one. They seem to have chosen the latter course.

[ramana]

pranav, Can you take all the refs and argue how it was us policy all along for regime change in Egypt and how the seized the moment? We can then have it blogged.

[SwamyG]

Swamy,

The only thing holding the Egyptian people back is their respect for their army, which is an extension of Egyptian nationalism.

The only thing holding the Army back is the fear of losing that respect, which is common sense.

External players are ultimately incidental to this fundamental dynamic, this tension.

America has never been able to create or prevent change within Egypt. The domestic players have their own interests and their own sources of strength - its America more often than not that has to adjust to keep their friends.

Hmmm.....so the people respect the army, but then the army has been supporting Mubarak for this long. Two scenarios jump at this juncture:
1) People were all the time favorable to Mubarak, and hence the did not have to show their displeasure and hence Army was not shoved into a dilemma. Suddenly things changed, and Mubarak lost people's trust, respect, love, favor ityadi. Now the Army sensing people's "choice" decides to stand with them.
2) Or, People were against Mubarak for quite sometime; and the Army just did not bother about the people's opinion.

There was a post about the army folks being wined and dine in America. That points to a more reasonable speculation than the thought of people's respect for Army holding Egypt together.

[SwamyG]

Egypt has a big charm over some in the West. Greco-Roman civilization had their footprint in that soil. On top of that the Nile Civilization, Pharaohs and Pyramids have always fascinated people out in the West. Moreover the proximity of the Northern African shoreline to Europe and European Colonization can tug emotional chords among the Europeans. All in all it is not like Sudan or Yemen changing regime. Egypt is a place that has occupied the minds of the West and the East.

ps: Anybody watch the movie Agora? In spite of the factual inaccuracies, very disturbing movie.

[SwamyG]

Ramana garu: If that is the case, like I said ascending India and China are then going to cause more takleef to mid-size to small-sized countries onlee. And probably we have to look at the downfall of these regimes in the economic meltdown perspective dhaaga.

Again, for some ultra-rich to exist, we need ultra-poor. Natural law?

[ramana]

No like INC in AP we need to come up with new tools to merge them even if they are far. We need new mandalas.

[Vivek Raghuvanshi]

Risk Mitigation in EGYPT

http://corporaterisks.info/blog/?p=941

Who will come into power in Egypt?

1. Mohamed Mustafa ElBaradei
2. Islamic Brotherhood
3. Military Rule

Out of the frustration in the local population between that which people think that they have a right to accept and which they estimate they realistically are capable of attaining resulting in a gap called perceived relative deprivation.

Socio, political and economic conditions that are will be exploited by vested interests.

Issues belong to certain groups and when these issues are not properly addressed because of government ineptitude or corruption that a certain sect of local population takes it upon themselves as to how these issues should be readdressed. Members of local population who realize that the government is incapable of addressing these issues take it upon themselves to affect the behavior of the local population by offering them utopia.

These issues advocated by groups become demands. Now if demands are properly addressed they result simply in the normal functioning of the political system. As it happens in Egypt, issues which belong to groups which are inadequately addressed become demands which results in heightened perceived relative deprivation because of the frustration in the local population between that which people think that they have a right to accept and which they estimate they realistically are capable of attaining resulting in a gap called perceived relative deprivation.

These issues belonging to groups advocated by influencers become demands and when these demands are not adequately addressed that have the potential for political violence develop legitimacy not in legal terms but on psychological terms result in popular support because of the frustration in the local population between that which people think that they have a right to accept and which they estimate they realistically are capable of attaining.

This results in directed focused political violence.

Islamic Brotherhood insurgents can advocate their causes and win over local population and breaks the links that bind the people to the government. This is because the coercive potential of insurgents is greater and for this the insurgent leaders destroy the legitimacy of the local government and create legitimacy for their own leadership because of the frustration in the local population between that which people think that they have a right to accept and which they estimate they realistically are capable of attaining resulting in a gap called perceived relative deprivation.

[Pranav]

pranav, Can you take all the refs and argue how it was us policy all along for regime change in Egypt and how the seized the moment? We can then have it blogged.

Here is a good collection of references: WHAT THE USA REALLY THINKS ABOUT EGYPT - http://aangirfan.blogspot.com/2011/01/w ... egypt.html

Some other articles:

The Protest Movement in Egypt: "Dictators" do not Dictate, They Obey Orders - http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=22993

Egypt protests: America's secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ising.html

[shyamd]

Ramana, IOL Says UAE was spying on members of Sultan Qaboos's entourage who were too close to Iran. But there is more to it than that. Rumours are that MBZ wanted revenge for a coup prevention. ... will explain later.

[SwamyG]

On the thoughts of Civilization and Western imaginations, Indian Civilization is the only thing that has neither awed (respect thru fascination) nor shocked (respect through fear). Persian, Sumerian, Chinese, Mayan, Greco-Roman, Egyptian ityadi all have some soft spots in the West. India? Far less, if any at all.

[ramana]

Nightwatch summary of yesterday's events:

Egypt: In a speech to the nation President Mubarak announced he never had any intention of running for re-election in September. He refused to step down from office before the elections.

Various international news services reported that the "opposition" issued its first list of demands 1 February, consisting of four principles that should provide the basis for negotiations with the government. According to the list, which was given to Vice President Omar Suleiman, President Mubarak and his regime must resign; transitional leadership must be formed; a committee to write a new constitution should be created; and parliament must be dissolved.

Liberal groups and Mohamed El Baradei said they support the list. However, officials in the Muslim Brotherhood said they would not negotiate with Suleiman, though they would not impede other opposition groups' talks with him, DPA reported.

Comment: Contrary to the thrust of American press treatment, Mubarak said nothing. He made no concessions to the demonstrators or to the US. There is no revolution or even a change in leadership. The US President's statement looks uninformed, poorly timed and lacking in insight. Mubarak may have duped the US and tried to dupe his opponents. If the US was not duped, then it must be a party to Mubarak's attempt to deceive his own population.

Mubarak stuck out his chin and told the world he is staying until the end of his term. He did not resign. He did not agree to leave office early. He did not agree to bring opposition leaders, whoever they are, into his national decision-making circle.

He re-affirmed what everyone already knew, namely, that he did not intend to run for office in September. What everyone knew is that he wanted his son Gamal to run for the presidency in September. Gamal is in London, not cut of the same cloth as his father, apparently.

He thumbed his nose at the world and said he is going nowhere, but the media interpreted the statement as a resignation speech!!! It takes a brilliant practitioner to dupe the whole world into believing its own Cinderella version of the news. Mubarak is a P.T. Barnum-class politician. US news apparently needed a Pollyanna-ish news story on Tuesday night.

The Muslim Brotherhood understood the message. They announced their refusal to negotiate with anyone from the Mubarak regime until Mubarak leaves. One spokesman for the Brothers said the chief of the armed forces would be an acceptable replacement for Mubarak.


Readers must expect outrage and a turn to violence as the defiance in Mubarak's statement sinks in. The protestors will misinterpret the speech as offering more concessions that fall short of responding to their primary demand that the president must leave now. They will renew and intensify their demand that Mubarak must leave.

For old hands, the US seems to have a tin ear in listening to and understanding Arab politics. The timing of the US statement was horrible. The US administration has not given the Mubarak government a reasonable chance to find a line it could hold before the US intervened. The Mubarak government has handled the demonstrations much more adroitly than did Ben Ali in Tunisia, with almost no violence. Mubarak is on his way out, but what was the basis for the US panic?


Sometimes it is better to say nothing, rather than to abandon in public a steadfast ally for 30 years. The street demonstrators will not make policy, ever. So what did the US gain by obliquely supporting a leaderless mob. Meanwhile, all the other US allies in the Middle East will appreciate that the US threw one of its most steadfast supporters under the bus because of street demonstrations and an insubordinate Egyptian Army.

As for the leaderless mob, Readers might wonder who printed the elegant Arab calligraphy on the banners, flags and signs flaunted by the spontaneous uprising. The leaders of this well-organized movement have not yet shown themselves.

There was no good news about Egypt today.

Egypt-US: The U.S. State Department ordered the departure of all non-emergency government personnel and their families from Egypt as a result of recent events. The evacuation of U.S. citizens who require assistance will be facilitated, the State Department said, adding that the Cairo airport is operating, but flights may be disrupted and transport to the airport may be hampered due to protests.

There was a Georgetown Uty expert on Radio Dr. Leibhur(?). He showed good understanding but didnt' get the military connection of Egyptian leaders. And worse he didn't know the thing was about the succession and not Mubarak leaving. Very bad if wisemen chose to be blind.
But in his favor he did say Obama message gives mixed signals to the Arab leaders of abandoning Mubarak just like the Shah after having served US interests for 3 decades.

[Lalmohan]

i fear that US policy is once again mired in cold war frameworks and has not adapted...
time for a regime change in foggy bottom and langley!!

[VinodTK]

Experts dismayed at Indian response to West Asian crises

In the absence of a clear chain of command among the protesters, India is treading a cautious path, sharing worries of the West that the Islamic Brotherhood may take control. Assailing such views, Gharekhan, the prime minister’s former advisor on West Asia, says India has nothing to fear from such a development. “At least we Indians must not make the mistake of shunning whatever government comes to power in Cairo through a peaceful, democratic process. Governments around the world will have to deal with it since it is not the Gaza Strip that can be ignored,” he believed.

Egypt and Tunisia may be hundreds of miles away from India, but security experts here are seriously debating the consequences of revolution on South Asia and more particularly on Jammu and Kashmir. Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal, director of the army’s think tank, Centre of Land Warfare Studies, fears that the Kashmir situation remains volatile and subterranean tensions may again rise to surface without major provocation.

[jsbawa]

Guys,
Live feed of Al Jazeera English here:
http://www.youtube.com/user/AlJazeeraEnglish

[ramana]

Experts dismayed at Indian response to West Asian crises

In the absence of a clear chain of command among the protesters, India is treading a cautious path, sharing worries of the West that the Islamic Brotherhood may take control. Assailing such views, Gharekhan, the prime minister’s former advisor on West Asia, says India has nothing to fear from such a development. “At least we Indians must not make the mistake of shunning whatever government comes to power in Cairo through a peaceful, democratic process. Governments around the world will have to deal with it since it is not the Gaza Strip that can be ignored,” he believed.

Egypt and Tunisia may be hundreds of miles away from India, but security experts here are seriously debating the consequences of revolution on South Asia and more particularly on Jammu and Kashmir. Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal, director of the army’s think tank, Centre of Land Warfare Studies, fears that the Kashmir situation remains volatile and subterranean tensions may again rise to surface without major provocation.

I think the experts are barking at the wrong tree.

Where did India say they won't deal with a legitimate govtt of Egypt or any other country? This is strawman agrument by CG. Supporting any party in a transition will be tantamount to picking sides. CG's rhetoric is like US experttati who are making Obama make unneeded statements.

Its not the time to do feel good barks at Egypt. As Kanwal says its time to be careful not to burn goodwill and ensure no blowback in India.

Mubarak had said even before the current crisis that he was not running in Sept. The issue was about his son running after him. And that is now settled. The problem is West now wants to push El Baradei on to Egypt under guise of reforms. It will long term lead to Iran type disaster.

A key thing to watch in my view is the consolidation of those vigilante volunteers into revolutinary guards or some such nonsense.

During French Revolution such committees were the ones that carried out executiosn and led to blood bath into which Napoleon had to step in.

Same thing happeend in Tsarist Russia, post Pahlevi Iran, Pol Pot Cambodia etc.

[abhishek_sharma]

Shippers Concerned Over Possible Suez Canal Disruptions

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/world ... 3suez.html

[abhishek_sharma]

Diplomatic Scramble as Ally Is Pushed to the Exit
By MARK LANDLER, HELENE COOPER and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/02/world ... ition.html

...

Former President George Bush, whose ties to Mr. Mubarak were cemented by the Egyptian leader’s commitment to supply Arab troops during the Persian Gulf war in 1991, called Mr. Mubarak, on his own initiative, to discuss the crisis, officials said. It was not clear what Mr. Bush told Mr. Mubarak.

...


Several times, two other attendees said, White House staff members said that Mr. Obama believed that Egyptian politics needed to encompass “nonsecular” parties: diplomatic-speak for the Muslim Brotherhood.

...

[abhishek_sharma]

Egypt's military tells protesters to go home: "Your message has been received"

http://www.politico.com/blogs/lauraroze ... eived.html

"Your message is received ... (your) demands became known,” the Egyptian defense ministry spokesman said on state television Wednesday, according to CNN. “And we are here and awake to protect the country for you ... not by power but by the love to Egypt.”

“It is time to go back to normal life,” the statement continued. “You have the power to allow Egypt to return to normal life. We are with you. We will continue to secure our country."

[abhishek_sharma]

Mubarak won't seek reelection, but vows "to die on Egyptian soil"

http://www.politico.com/blogs/lauraroze ... ction.html

[abhishek_sharma]

Photo Essay: Everybody Loves Loved Hosni

30 years of photo ops.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... oved_hosni

[SwamyG]

Experts dismayed at Indian response to West Asian crises

Experts? hmmmmmmm. There was just one guy's - Chinmaya R Gharekhan - opinion in the piece. It makes it one expert not 'experts'. It is not about English, but accuracy - because it tells how many experts lean one way or the other. India, traditionally, is always cautious in such affairs. It does not rush like some of the Western countries to issue statements. Expressing sympathy in words is going to do much in the minds of people.

[abhishek_sharma]

Mubarak speaks! (people don't listen)
By Steve Walt (Foreign Policy Magazine)

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... ont_listen

...

If history is any guide (and it is, albeit a rather fickle and ambiguous one), we are still in the early stages. The French revolution went through a series of distinct phases for more than a decade (accelerated, to be sure, by war), before Bonaparte's seizure of power. The Russian Revolution began with the March 1917 uprisings, followed by the Bolshevik coup in October and then a civil war. The Islamic republic of Iran did not leap full-blown from the brow of the Ayatollah Khomeini, but took several years to assume its basic form. Even the United States was a work-in-progress for years after victory in the revolutionary war. (Remember the Articles of Confederation, and the debate over the Constitution?).

In short, history cautions that we have no clear idea what form a post-Mubarak government in Egypt will take, and there's a lot of contingency at work here. I have my hunches and hopes, but nobody can be really confident about their forecasts at this stage. (Heck, at first I didn't think the upheaval in Tunisia would spread!) It will help a lot if the process of political contestation in Egypt avoids large-scale violence, because the onset of mass violence (whether by the regime and its supporters or by the anti-Mubarak groups), is going to fuel greater hatred and paranoia and tilt the process in more dangerous directions. For this reason, those who are urging a peaceful and orderly transition (including the Obama adminstration) are exactly right. And that's why the reports I'm seeing about rising violence (a summary of which can be found on Andrew Sullivan's The Daily Dish) is worrisome.

I watched Mubarak's speech live yesterday afternoon, and I came away thinking that it is too bad he no longer has any credibility or legitimacy with the popular forces. In an ideal world, it would be good if Mubarak were able to remain the head of a caretaker government and allow for an extended period of preparation for a truly free and fair election. You can't just stand up workable parties and a free media overnight, and figuring out how to create proper democratic institutions takes some time.

...

Just look at how hard it has been and how long it has taken to restore some semblance of "normal" politics in Iraq. I'm not saying the two situations are identical; but the history of mass revolution reminds us that we are still in the early stages, and creating workable and legitimate institutions isn't child's play.

The problem, of course, is that nobody in Egypt would trust Mubarak not to have his thumb on the scale.

...

[abhishek_sharma]

Mubarak's 9 biggest mistakes
By Blake Hounshell (Foreign Policy Magazine)

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... t_mistakes

1. Failing to spread the wealth. ...

2. Allowing corruption to pervade Egyptian life. ...

3. The vision thing. ...

4. Half-hearted reforms. ...

5. Grooming Gamal. ...

6. Underestimating the activists. ...

7. Cheating too much. ...

8. Sending in the thugs. ...

9. Bringing in his cronies...

[SBajwa]

by SwamyG
On the thoughts of Civilization and Western imaginations, Indian Civilization is the only thing that has neither awed (respect thru fascination) nor shocked (respect through fear). Persian, Sumerian, Chinese, Mayan, Greco-Roman, Egyptian ityadi all have some soft spots in the West. India? Far less, if any at all.

Indians have neither attacked Greeks or Romans and have only defended their motherland. people respect "strength" and not merely "defending their own".

So! the sooner we understand this basic concept of nature the better we will be.

[abhishek_sharma]

Cairo 2011 is not Tehran of 1979

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... an_of_1979

[abhishek_sharma]

Complicating the transition in US-Egyptian relations
By Daniel Levy (Foreign Policy Magazine)

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... _relations

Indeed, events in Egypt have been met by near hysteria in the Israeli press. Splashy headlines included "We're on our own," "Obama's betrayal of Mubarak," and "A bullet in the back from Uncle Sam", highlighting Israel's growing isolation, the potential rise of Islamist forces and withering criticism of the U.S. Government. According to Israeli press reports, the Netanyahu government has been lobbying Western capitals to adopt a supportive approach to the Mubarak regime

Nathan Brown, an expert on Islamist parties, has warned against US policymakers being misled by a tendency towards "Ikwanophobia" (ikwan is Arabic for the Muslim Brothers' movement). One cannot support participatory democratic politics in the Arab world while being totally allergic to the role that democratic Islamists will play. These movements are part of the legitimate political mix. They are more often than not at loggerheads with Al Qaeda, and far from being Al Qaeda-lite, they are frequently the most effective bulwark against Al Qaeda-style extremism.

[shyamd]

There was a Georgetown Uty expert on Radio Dr. Leibhur(?). He showed good understanding but didnt' get the military connection of Egyptian leaders. And worse he didn't know the thing was about the succession and not Mubarak leaving. Very bad if wisemen chose to be blind.
But in his favor he did say Obama message gives mixed signals to the Arab leaders of abandoning Mubarak just like the Shah after having served US interests for 3 decades.

IOL says White House wanted Mubarak to step down immediately and hand over control to the Army for the transition period until elections in September. Israel wanted Mubarak to stay, they see him as the only guarantor for Camp David 1979 agreement. I asked source about Egypt turning into Lebanon situation where GCC will help Suleiman come back - therefore same system. He said, US and Israel care more about Suleiman staying than GCC.

Will do a blog post on this at some point as well as the inside view on Oman - UAE issue.

[ramana]

There was a small blurb from Egypt saying they resent interference in their country

and Now this

Egyptian Foreign Ministry Says Obama Inciting Violence.

ABC's Amanpour Comes Under Attack In Cairo.

Fox Business Reporter’s Cairo Hotel Room Invaded by Security: 'They're Going to Kill Us!!'

Egyptian Protesters Hurling Molotov Cocktails, Rocks in Cairocon

'Total mayhem': Mubarak supporters, protesters clash in Egypt

PA launches pro-Mubarak demonstration in Ramallah

EGYPT: Opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei says he fears coming 'bloodbath'

[abhishek_sharma]

An exclusive conversation with a journalist inside the chaos on Tahrir Square

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... rir_square