West Asia News and Discussions

[abhishek_sharma]

What a shifting Egypt means for the U.S.

http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2 ... or_the_u_s

[shyamd]

http://middleeast-analysis.blogspot.com ... pdate.html

See my blog for update on the Egypt Issue and Oman-UAE affair.

[abhishek_sharma]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/lauraroze ... to_DC.html

President Obama is “very concerned” that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak may not begin the process or an orderly transfer of power as quickly as he needs to, administration officials tell ABC News. ...

U.S. Ambassador Margaret Scobey is leading discussions and conveying U.S. wishes for the process to begin as soon as possible. Special envoy to Egypt Frank Wisner is returning from Cairo, with an administration official saying he was no longer able to be as effective a conduit to President Mubarak after their private conversations had been made public.

One official described the administration’s public stance on the issue as having had to change “every twelve hours” as events in Cairo has developed so rapidly.

“First it was ‘negotiate with the opposition,’ then events overtook that, the it was ‘orderly transition,’ and events overtook that, then it was ‘You and your son can’t run,’ and events overtook that, and now it’s ‘the process has to begin now,’” the official said. “It’s been crawl-walk-run – we had to increase the pace as events required.” ...

Wisner, the former Ambassador to Egypt during the Reagan and Bush Sr. administrations, was sent to Cairo on Sunday at the suggestion of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton because of his close relationship with Mubarak. But their back-channel conversations became no longer useful, an administration official said, after they found their way into the media.

[abhishek_sharma]

Sudden Split Recasts U.S. Foreign Policy

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/world ... omacy.html

[Johann]

Swamy,

The only thing holding the Egyptian people back is their respect for their army, which is an extension of Egyptian nationalism.

The only thing holding the Army back is the fear of losing that respect, which is common sense.

External players are ultimately incidental to this fundamental dynamic, this tension.

America has never been able to create or prevent change within Egypt. The domestic players have their own interests and their own sources of strength - its America more often than not that has to adjust to keep their friends.

Hmmm.....so the people respect the army, but then the army has been supporting Mubarak for this long. Two scenarios jump at this juncture:
1) People were all the time favorable to Mubarak, and hence the did not have to show their displeasure and hence Army was not shoved into a dilemma. Suddenly things changed, and Mubarak lost people's trust, respect, love, favor ityadi. Now the Army sensing people's "choice" decides to stand with them.
2) Or, People were against Mubarak for quite sometime; and the Army just did not bother about the people's opinion.

There was a post about the army folks being wined and dine in America. That points to a more reasonable speculation than the thought of people's respect for Army holding Egypt together.

It may not seem logical, but the Egyptian public did not hold the Army responsible for the Mubarak regime's actions - their image was that they were the good guys, who focussed on deterring Israel and all of Egypt's external enemies while Mubarak's family and party cronies milked the system.

Its a less extreme version of the scam that the Pakistan Army plays on Pakjabis, who continue to adore their army and revile their politicians.

The army was not the day to day face of the regime's power on the street - it was the police, the secret police and the paramilitary forces of the Interior Ministry.

But at this moment, with the Interior Ministry's forces in retreat the Army is out on the street and exposed, and its choices are under intense public scrutiny.

There's enough trust that many of the neighborhood associations that have sprung up to protect their areas from looters (assumed to be hired Mubarak thugs) are handing over captured miscreants to the Army.

That trust has been eroded by footage broadcast on Al-Jazeera and other channels showing the Army allowing pro-Mubarak people through their cordons to throw molotov cocktails at anti-Mubarak protestors, etc.

The Army is trying to eat its cake and have it too - protect the regime while appearing pro-people. It can not keep that up - ultimately the Army leadership's interest is protecting the regime rather than the nation. The question is whether this will cause strains within the Army's officer corps, especially at the field grade.

[krisna]

Usually the leaders channelise the energies of the protestors. Currently there are no leaders who can direct the masses.it also helps create some sort of an order in the chaos.
For how long can the protests be sustained.
If the masses get their wish, how will it move forward. will the puppets(as the protests are leaderless in that sense of term) have any hold on people. They may not have much leeway if any mistakes occur.
It has been a one man show for much of its independence in egypt. If the strong man falls there reigns chaos. No institutions to uphold the governance, day to day functioning.

eerily similar to what KS garu told about nations can be told here also-
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 6#p1022956

When the other person is weak and you are strong - You will have Peace,
When you and the others are equal - You will have tension.
When the others are strong and you are weak the - You will have WAR.

Hosni is the strong person, masses were weak- peace.
Now masses gaining strength-- tension, when masses become powerful, war will inevitably happen all the more as there are no leaders of the masses to direct them.





carter lost Iran and now ombaba in danger of losing egypt. Interestingly both democrats-- any relation. or plain just coincidence/luck.

[krisna]

http://www.hindustantimes.com/Anger-in- ... 57360.aspx

What will Arab democracy mean?
Outfits such as the Muslim Brothers are the region’s best-organised political groupings, especially in the Levant. But conservatives are not the same thing as militants. The present revolution is forcing them to work within a democratic polity, making it less likely they will transit from ballot to bullet. “Citizens’ movements in Tunisia and Egypt have managed to do in a few days or weeks what Islamic movements have failed to achieve in decades,” says Salem.
In a democratised Arabia, they will make their presence felt in illiberal policies: more women in black, more gays behind bars, more overt anti-Western rhetoric. Even anti-Indian: Muslim Brotherhood websites welcome articles by Kashmiri separatists. If Arabs make these choices through votes, then the world will have to live with them.
Pragmatism is likely to prevail. Bread and butter issues won’t go away soon. Egypt’s protestors may have complained the police tear gas was US-made, but they found Coca Cola the best thing to wash it from their eyes.
In any case, the existing Arab order was unsustainable. Economic reforms could not work properly in such corruption. A “moderate” Arab had come to be defined solely in terms of one’s stance towards Israel rather than support for democracy. If terrorist groups were unable to exploit this, it was largely because of their own miscalculations.

[abhischekcc]

Democrats are more 'international' oriented than Republicans. Meaning that the foriegn policy objectives of Democrats is more friendly to international banker community, which includes large scale manipulation of other societies.

Whereas the Republican foreign policy is more about making money through resource exploitation. For this reason, Republicans are ready to cut a deal with anyone.

And the converse is also true, that because Democrats have more totalitarian objectives (control of society), hence they put more pressure on foreign countries to confirm to their world view. Hence, they tend to create more pressure cooker scenarios than Republicans.

PS. This is also the reason why India-US relations take a plunge whenever Democrats come to power.

[Johann]

carter lost Iran and now ombaba in danger of losing egypt. Interestingly both democrats-- any relation. or plain just coincidence/luck.

A) It is far too early to say Egypt is 'lost' to America.

Sadat for example faced mass riots in 1977 (shortly after Carter came in to office) over food prices, was loathed by many for making a 'separate peace' with Israel, and was finally assassinated by Islamists in 1981, a few months after Reagan replaced Carter. Many worried about the regime's stability, but here is Mubarak still in power 30 years later.

B ) It doesn't matter if Gerald Ford had won the 1976 elections - the Iranian revolution would have still taken place in 1978-79. Inflation was destroying people's purchasing power, the secret police were abducting and torturing those who complained, and worst of all the Shah simply wasn't listening to the people any more and had alienated all of his local bases of support.

C) The single most hated action of the US in Iran at the time was their involvement in supporting the Shah against Mossadeq in 1953. That took place under the Republican Eisenhower administration - the Democratic Truman administration 1951-52 had avoided taking a stand.

D) Cuba, far closer to America's shores, and under far more direct American influence was lost to Castro and his communists on Eisenhower's watch.

[shyam]

EGYPT: Opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei says he fears coming 'bloodbath'

Who made this guy the Opposition leader of the Egyptian people? He landed Egypt only a few days back.

[Ambar]

EGYPT: Opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei says he fears coming 'bloodbath'

Who made this guy the Opposition leader of the Egyptian people? He landed Egypt only a few days back.

Not exactly true. El-Bardei has been a vocal opponent of Mubarak and pro-democracy campaigner for a while. Probably the west sees him as a legitimate replacement for Mubarak, although i;m still not convinced this is a west backed campaign.If Mubarak sticks on till September, then we might see Suleiman take over like Ramanaji says. But if violence continues then El-Bardei might become the next President.

[Gagan]

El-Bardei, has been in preparation for a possible greater role in Egypt for the last year or two.

Notice how he stood his ground (or appeared to) on the question of Iran's N activities, inspite of the US wanting stricter sanctions, and wanting the IAEA to implicate the Iranians more.
So El-Bardei has built some standing in the Arab world by appearing to put his foot down and not blindly doing what 'US' and 'Israel', 'wanted him to do' in Iran's case.

The US has been in contact with the opposition in Egypt, and also with the Muslim Brotherhood apparently and these contacts are a year or two old, and some discussions have been going on.

Ultimately it appears, that a new era of US-Arab interaction is ongoing, where people's movements are overthrowing the longstanding regimes, but the US has anticipated this happening and has been busy trying to build bridges with the other side these few years.

How successful will these process of building bridges with the arabs in the new arab world order, only time will tell, but the going might not be smooth for the US.

[SwamyG]

that because Democrats have more totalitarian objectives (control of society), hence they put more pressure on foreign countries to confirm to their world view.

[SwamyG]

EGYPT: Opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei says he fears coming 'bloodbath'

Who made this guy the Opposition leader of the Egyptian people? He landed Egypt only a few days back.

USA

[shyamd]

No one knows him in Egypt. In fact if anything they were disappointed by his statements - thats world over. They see him as weak too. His speeches weren't great either apparently, and people were disappointed.

News out that VP Omar Suleiman has agreed also not to stand for election. Israel is starting to get its act together to protect its interests. The army will ultimately take over if situation worsens I think. Muslim Brotherhood has been making anti west statements - they are threatening to close the Suez canal etc.

[Lalmohan]

democrats started vietnam though right? and korea?

[pgbhat]

democrats started vietnam though right? and korea?

and A'stan jihad.

[ramana]

Heard a lot of experts on radio today. Names are jumbled but gist is this:

- El Baradei has no experience in Egypt. He has run the IAEA with 2200 emplyess. Egypt is 82M people and its own mind. So no piece of cake. He was abroad for last 30 years.
-El B has slowly built his position by refusing US demands on Iran etc. This builds his image as opposing the West. Which is needed in Arab street.
- Muslim Borthehood is the largest organised group outside the Army. They provide parallel govt right now: Medical services, out-reach centers, dispute settlement mechanisms. Goals are Islamic Shariat to replace current law.
- Due to lack of oil resources, Egypt will have to rely on Suez Canal traffic for revenues and even if MB taken over they will have to keep it open.
- Large super cargo ships bypass the Suez anyway.
-El Baradei due to weakness could be moderate face for couple of years and then MB will takeover.

- Very clear US is pushing for regime change without any understanding of the forces its unleashing. As usual there is a silo situation. One arm is pushing for regime change while other is petrified. Hence the confliting statements.

- Very bad image in other Arab leaders about trust. Mubarak was like Rock of Gibraltar in his support to US. And he is being sold down the Nile.

[shyamd]

Israel is starting to get its act together on Egypt. I'll post some more. It must have been a busy few nights at Mossad HQ.

Yes, above statements are correct. Egypt has no other major source of revenue, so will have to keep Suez open. If MB come to power, they will start to show some balls and close it in protest, if Israel goes to war in Gaza or if the West does something.

[krisna]

Egypt crisis: Marico, Asian Paints, Dabur temporarily suspend operations

Egypt has been quite attractive to Indian FMCG players as it offers tax cuts, preferential trade treaties, and speedy approvals for business, in addition to high growth.
Indian consumer firms have been tapping Africa of late as it opens up new growth avenues with rising costs and fierce competition at home squeezing profits.

With Egypt as a manufacturing hub for the entire MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, Marico said prolonged closure would impact supply to the entire region.
The MENA region accounts for 7-8 percent of Marico' sales revenues. Its international business from Bangladesh, MENA and South Africa comprise 23 percent of the group's turnover. "We have initiated as a back-up measure, plans to supplement the MENA supply chain with supplies from India," it said.

Dabur has manufacturing facilities in Nigeria and the UAE. For them it will be easier to source products from there," Shirish Pardeshi, an analyst with Anand Rathi Securities , said. Dabur's international business spans the Middle East, North and West Africa, EU and the U.S. through its brands Dabur and Vatika, and makes up about 16 percent of consolidated revenue.
Emami, which last week said it had acquired 90.59 percent in Pharma Derm SAE, said it will have to wait longer before it can start operations there, Prashant Goenka, director, international business said.
Paints maker Asian Paints shut operations at its two plants in Egypt from Jan. 29 and will resume operations once normalcy returns, the company said in a statement. About 5 percent of the company's sales come from Egypt, analysts said.

[Singha]

jordan king fired his whole cabinet and yemeni PM has said he will not stand for re-election.

have to ask what are they so afraid of?

[hnair]

Talked to a Tunisian friend. Says he is happy there are no good replacements. His logic - rule by committee and elections in 6 months will throw up relatively equal strength opponents who has to prove themselves and wont try strongman tactics. Says is worried of remnants of Ben-bhai's apparatus, if he is not extradited as demanded.

In that sense, El Baradai is bad news, for he seems to be another Karzai - makes west happy but is actually pazhankanji* poured on the bowls of the denizens by outside powers

(*translation of pazhankanji - watery rice gruel made out of leftover rice from a more TFTA meal)

[krisna]

Spy Agencies Failed to Predict Egypt Uprising

it is remarkable how unprepared foreign intelligence agencies have proven in forecasting the crisis. Even the Israelis were caught completely unaware: on January 25, the day when massive protests first erupted across Egypt, Major General Aviv Kochavi, newly appointed head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate, told a Knesset committee that “there are no doubts about the stability of the regime in Egypt” and that “the Muslim Brotherhood is not organized enough to take over”. Instead, Kochavi focused on political volatility in Lebanon; ironically, the latter now seems like an oasis of tranquility compared to the explosive state of Egyptian politics.

For years, the US Central Intelligence Agency has worked closely with the Egyptian security establishment in the contentious context of Washington’s “war on terrorism”. But it is unlikely that the CIA has been as meticulous in developing trustworthy contacts inside Egypt’s fragmented but dynamic and energized Egyptian opposition. The latter, whether religious or secular, is naturally distrustful of American officials, whom it sees as longtime supporters of the dictatorial rule of President Mubarak, in the interests of what US Vice President Joe Biden has called “geopolitical interests in the region”.

But Middle Eastern politics are always more complicated than they appear, and it is unlikely that the Egyptian opposition will allow Suleiman, who is considered a staunch Mubarak loyalist, lead the besieged government. Those in the know insist that the Egyptian armed forces have yet to speak, and that the military top brass is “still sorting out [...] whether to continue to back Mubarak”. It is worth remembering that, with the world’s 10th largest military, numbering nearly half a million armed men, many of whom are stationed on the border with Israel and the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, Egypt is a totally different ball game than Tunisia.

As one Israeli commentator noted recently, Obama may be remembered in American foreign policy annals as “the president who ‘lost’ Turkey, Lebanon and Egypt, and during whose tenure America’s alliances in the Middle East crumbled”.

[Johann]

- Due to lack of oil resources, Egypt will have to rely on Suez Canal traffic for revenues and even if MB taken over they will have to keep it open.
- Large super cargo ships bypass the Suez anyway.

...-El Baradei due to weakness could be moderate face for couple of years and then MB will takeover.

Tourism dwarfs all shipping revenues. It brings in over $20 billion a year and puts money in people's pockets at every scale of the economy.

Egypt would have terrific difficulties coping with any steep losses there, but tourism is not like oil, which Iran and Algeria or Libya or Saudi have. Its not a resource you ship out in barrel. You have to draw people in.

The Muslim Brotherhood would make millions of enemies within Egypt if it damaged that industry by being too doctrinaire - after all that is exactly how the jihadis lost the sympathy of both poor and professional in the 1990s. The massacre at Luxor was catastrophic for the whole country, and the Sinai bombings in the 2000s also did a lot of damage.

Of course this does not mean that internal political competition or external pressures (Israel and Hamas) drives the MB to do something catastrophically stupid if they came to power. However Khomeini's movement was about 15 years old when it came to power. The Muslim Brotherhood is over 80 and has seen both ups and downs. I believe they will continue to show the caution they have shown up till now - their number one goal after all this time is not sharia for its own sake, but survival, and then their own growth. Still, I would be terrified if I was an Egyptian Christian in southern Egypt

[krisna]

KSA supports both MB and Mubarak.
It supports the MB and funds them.
It showed strong support to Mubarak.
No one blames KSA!!

[SwamyG]

jordan king fired his whole cabinet and yemeni PM has said he will not stand for re-election.

have to ask what are they so afraid of?

Peak Oil?

[krisna]

Peoples Revolt in Egypt ;Birth Pangs of a New Middle East!

It is quite clear that Egypt has started a revolutionary process a week ago in the Middle East with almost one million Egyptians out is streets in Cairo (Maidane-Tahrir - freedom square ), Alexandria and elsewhere . After the brutality by Egypt's notorious security police in which over 100 people have died and many hundreds injured , the military , consisting of conscripted soldiers ,which is now out in the streets has allowed peaceful demonstrations .
With a population of over 80 million , centre of gravity , prime mover and leader of Sunni Arabs, Egypt ,never had this kind of spontaneous revolt by the people , called Fallahin , down trodden and mostly ruled by foreigners including queens like Cleopatra and Nefertiti .

Since the end of Nasser era under IMF laid down policies, rich have become richer and poor poorer in Egypt .The corruption , lack of transparency and accountability around the world has been accompanied by upsurge in staple food prices on the London, New York and Chicago commodity exchanges. These price hikes are in large part the result of speculative trade by major financial and corporate agribusiness interests. These are leading to riots all around the world .In Egypt in particular and Muslim countries in general, a population increase of 3% has meant stagnant economies and rising unemployment and poverty .

So it should not be forgotten that the British and then the US encouraged and even financed Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt , Syria and elsewhere with Riyadh providing the Wahabi/Salafi ideology and ample petrodollars ( to Jihadi and terrorist organisations in south west Asia and elsewhere too)
These groups were propped up to counter nationalist and socialist policies of Arab leaders led by Nasser and others, with full support from Saudi Arabia . After the fall of the Berlin Wall , the socialist ideology has been as if confined to ghetto , its space has been filled by Muslim Brother hood and Islamist AKP in Turkey. They begin with helping out the poor in slums and promoting veils and other symbols of orthodox and extremist Muslim ideology and are soon helped financially by Saudi Arabia .

In a macro-analyses of the current history , the US led Western quagmire in Iraq is the millennia game changer event like the Ottoman siege and defeat during 16-17 centuries at the Gates of Vienna by European powers .The Ottomans had many minor successes after that but were finally rolled back to the confines of present day Turkey .After the collapse of USSR and fall of the Berlin Wall .Washington had a run of Eurasia .
But in the last few years it has been rolled back from Ukraine and Uzbekistan , its ally Georgia bashed by Moscow in 2008 and its troops are just about clinging on to Kyrgyzstan air force base . What does future hold in Afghanistan for US led West . It is a lose-lose situation with the loss of obedient puppets in Tunis and Cairo and possibly elsewhere with food riots in Jordan and change of prime minster in Amman .Palestinians make up 60 percent of Jordan's population . PLO militants and Palestinian army officers conspired against King Hussein (King Abdullah, his grandfather, was assassinated by a Palestinian in 1951), who expelled the Arafat-led PLO to Beirut in the early 1970s. Then there is an Islamist revolt simmering in Algeria since the elections were undone in 1992 .

Washington now spends over $ 700 billion on defense as much as the rest of the world and has an advrse tarde balance of $400 or so .Its debts amount to 12 trillion not much less than its GDP .This situation in untenable .

The last Arab revolt was masterminded by the perfidious British against Ottoman Sultan Caliph during WWI to detach Arab territories from Istanbul's control, when Istanbul sided with Germany, Britain, to protect its Indian possession and the Suez Canal lifeline, encouraged Arabs under Hashemite ruler Sharif Hussein of Hijaj to revolt against the caliph in Istanbul (and deputed spy T E Lawrence to help him). The war's end did not bring freedom to the Arabs as promised; at the same time, by secret Sykes-Picot agreement, the British and French arbitrarily divided the sultan's Arab domains and their warring populations of Shi'ites, Sunnis, Alawite Muslims, Druse, and Christians. The French took most of greater Syria, dividing it into Syria and Christian-dominated Lebanon. The British kept Palestine, Iraq and the rest of Arabia.

[ramana]

Good historical prespective. I only hope the putt putts in TSP will also hang from the chain and the people find freedom.

[ramana]

2/2/2011

Nightwatch comments on yesterday

Comment: Today was the day of Epiphany. In Tahrir Square, the atmosphere changed from euphoria to fear in less than 24 hours. The anti-government demonstrators were outnumbered and surrounded by pro-Mubarak supporters, trapped. They discovered that Army tolerance of their street displays also extended to the pro-Mubarak activists. The Army showed that it was strictly neutral, supporting neither side. Soldiers said they had no orders to move. This was the first epiphany.


There were four others.


The second epiphany was that the anti-government demonstrators were, in fact, not an outpouring of universal opposition to the Mubarak regime.

Many everyday people will be harmed by the end of the Mubarak administration. Mubarak extended and expanded the patronage state. The prospect of its disruption, even, would harm tens of millions of Egyptians. The Western media narrative of a nationwide uprising for increased political freedom derived from the activism of 250,000 people in Tahrir Square has proven to be flawed if not outright false, a story for entertainment news.

The youth of Cairo do not like Mubarak, but no news service has explored just what they prefer. Nor have any attempted to learn what the other 80 million Egyptians prefer. Mubarak apparently knew that when he refused to step down.

One press report stated that the incongruous images of men on horses and camels riding through Tahrir Square showed irate workers from the pyramids whose livelihood depended on tourism, which the demonstrators had wrecked. Actually, that account is more credible than that of a nationwide uprising for voting rights based on the actions of the youth of Cairo.

The third epiphany is that Mubarak has flushed out his opposition. Readers may be confident that the secret police have photographic images of every protestor in Tahrir Square. That is no longer a technological challenge.

The fourth epiphany is that pro-Mubarak and anti-Mubarak activists both look to the Army to stabilize the situation. The Army got what it wanted from Mubarak and is now living up to its promises and responsibilities. It is in control now.

The Army and the Ministry of Defense called on the anti-Mubarak activists to leave the Square, early on 2 February. The open source reports indicate the violent, pro-Mubarak men showed up in force when the anti-government demonstrators ignored the Army's orders. They still labored under the misperception that Army inaction was Army sympathy or support.

The fifth epiphany is that the Army has not sided with the anti-government demonstrators. It appears the Army tolerated and used the demonstrations to ensure no dynastic succession. Every Egyptian leader since 1952 has been a military officer. The Army's action protected that precedent. The Army all along appears to have acted in pursuit of its own parochial interests, which are negative towards Gamal Mubarak as the next president, but positive towards letting Hosni Mubarak serve to the end of his term of office.

{Johann called it right. Its the Mameluke regime all right.}

One well informed, Brilliant Reader suggested that the next leader of Egypt will be announced this week, after Friday prayers. He is the Chief of the Armed Forces Staff.

What seems to have happened.

A crackdown by pro-government proxy forces and secret police occurred on 2 February. The Army got what it wanted and will now proceed to clear Tahrir Square. Having satisfied the Army on the issue of succession, Mubarak has found a line he can hold so that he will make no further concessions.

Everything now depends on the actions of the army. In the NightWatch instability analysis, the onset of violence, precisely like that seen today, indicates a convergence towards power sharing. The government is attempting to prevent any further transfer of power to the opposition.

The opposition has been swelled by the infusion of power. It has obtained international legitimacy, because el Baradei is its spokesman. It is trying to hold its ground. It does not have legitimacy in Egypt necessarily and might not even be pro-democratic, despite the uncritical adulation of the American press. Some significant elements of the opposition are pro-Sharia, anti-US and anti-Israel.

The violence means that the pro- and anti-Mubarak entities are converging. Convergence is always violent because both sides seek to use force to achieve political dominance. Neither wants to share power.

If the Army stays neutral, some form of power sharing will be negotiated by el Baradei and Vice President General Omar Suleiman because the regime will have lost its guns. If not, the Army will clear the Square, indicating the guns remain loyal to the President.

The NightWatch prediction is the Army will clear the Square before Friday prayers. If that occurs, it will confirm that the Army has taken control of the government but is keeping Mubarak as a figurehead.

If that does not take place, the next phase of unrest will occur in which the uprising evolves into a movement for systemic change, also known as revolution. The Army collapses and every one from the Mubarak era runs for the exits.

Egypt-US: For the record. An Egyptian official remarked on 2 February that there is a contradiction in U.S. demands for both an orderly transition of government and for President Mubarak to step down immediately, The Associated Press reported. The official also said that Mubarak's decision not to seek re-election in September was not a result of pressure from the United States.

Comment: No matter the outcome in Egypt, Egyptian leaders will not trust the US. They will take US incentives, but they will never consider the US a reliable ally, paraphrasing an Israeli Ambassador today.

Looks like the koel kooed too early and was shown to be cuckoo!

[ramana]

I don't know how many recall the California BRF meet in Paso Robles circa 2003? I had a presentation on Arab Nationalism and Islamic Fundamentalism where more most of this was discussed.

[Muppalla]

If Mubarak goes with none of his influence in the next government of Egypt that will definitely have an effect in Arab world. The avalanche will be unstoppable. I am sure it is edgy. I hope there will be pure democracy in Egypt. AoA

[Johann]

I have a few more points to make.

- The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is *deeply* impressed by the Turkish model. There too an MB-inspired Islamist movement (Milli Gorus) had to go through deep structural and ideological changes to share power with a suspicious secular army. Those changes allowed Turkey to continue to attract trade, tourism and investment from the West while expanding their domestic support base and attracting money from the Muslim world, esp. Iran and the GCC. However (!) this came after an internal split where the old dinosaurs who resisted change were left behind - but its paid off.

The MB may still have to go through the same process. There have been attempts before, but without the real prospect of elections the old guard could still route the (relatively) younger reformists.

- No Egyptian president will trust US political support, however (!) institutional ties between the Egyptian and US militaries, between the Mukhabarat and the CIA have not been damaged in the way that people are babbling on about.

I will point out again, many people have short memories. George W. Bush was the one who began pushing allied Muslim leaders to democratise after 9/11, including Mubarak (and Musharraf!), which emboldened social protest all over. The Kefaya protests of 2004-06 were a forerunner to these, and included the use of social media, etc.

The Bush administration only backed off after the elections in Palestine, which Bush had pushed against Mubarak's advice swept Hamas to power in Gaza. The same talk of Arab leaders not being able to trust the US, ran throughout 2003-06 as friends and foes both found America unpredictable. At the end of the day, Arab leaders fears of Iran and its non-state Arab friends overrode all that.

[abhishek_sharma]

The pharaoh strikes back
By Steve Walt (Foreign Policy Magazine)

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... rikes_back

The last day or two demonstrates that Mubarak has no intention of going down without a fight. At the same time, Egypt's Prime Minister has expressed regret for the loss of life and is pledging an orderly transition. Where does this leave us?

First of all, the events in the past day or two confirm a point I've made before: revolutionary upheavals are very hard to predict and the final outcome often isn't determined for weeks or months or even years.

...

I think the regime is fatally compromised even if he does hang on), but the past day or two reminds us that the regime is not without resources. To repeat myself further, the danger is that the onset of a significant violence will create a situation where extremists on both sides feel empowered, resulting in far more extensive damage to Egypt's social order.

From a U.S. perspective, I'm with FP colleague Marc Lynch. If Obama goes wobbly at this point, he'll look even weaker than many people in the Middle East already assume he is. Given that Mubarak is beginning to do exactly what Obama asked him not to do, now's the time to distance ourselves even further. Obama should announce an immediate suspension of military aid to Egypt, while ordering the Pentagon to send a quiet message to Egyptian military commanders that aid will resume as soon as Mubarak steps down. We are playing the long game here, and need to take clear steps to ensure that we are not seen as complicit in dictatorial repression. Here I'm standing by my earlier remarks about the likely strategic consequences

...

One last point. In today's Washington Post, E.J. Dionne says that Obama's handling of this crisis will ultimately be judged by whether we get an anti-American/anti-Israel outcome or not. In his words, "Obama will be judged by results. If the Egyptian uprising eventually leads to an undemocratic regime hostile to the United States and Israel, the president will pay the price." I think he's right as a matter of practical politics, but this view also reflects the widespread assumption that the United States government has the capacity to determine the outcome of unruly political processes of the sort we are now witnessing in Egypt. This is silly: Nobody is in control of events there, nobody knows how it will turn out, and it's quite possible that we'll get either a good outcome or a bad outcome no matter what the United States government does. That doesn't mean the USG shouldn't try to shape events to the extent that we can, but we should not forget that our capacity to mold them is inherently limited.

I'm all for holding leaders accountable, especially when they do foolish things entirely on their own initiative (like invading Iraq). But we would do a better job of judging our leaders' performance if we acknowleged that presidents are neither omniscient nor omnipotent.

[abhishek_sharma]

Return of the Turks as Middle East kingmaker

By Joshua Walker (Foreign Policy Magazine)

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... _kingmaker

"Enough we say, the decision belongs to the people of the brotherly Egyptian and Tunisian nations... Turkey shares the grief of these nations as well as their hopes." So-declared a self-confident Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday in his prime-time speech on recent events in the Middle East that received broad coverage regionally.

...

The unprecedented levels and inter-linkages of the protests against the traditional authoritarian regimes represented most starkly by President Mubarak, has brought the Middle East back to a period more reminiscent of the breakup of the Ottoman Empire and the rise of Arab nationalism than anything seen in recent memory.

...

At no time since their days at the helm of the Ottoman Empire have the Turks been as actively involved diplomatically (record number of visits bilaterally to Arab world in the last month alone with multiple visits to Lebanon and Syria for the foreign minister), economically (greatest increase in trade volume over any two year period), or politically (inclusion of Turkey into the Arab League and head of the Organization of Islamic Conference) as they are in the Arab world today. While this imperial baggage continues to cast a shadow over Turkish-Arab relations, the expediency of the present seems to have overcome the past. The almost immediate involvement of Turkey and Qatar in brokering a compromise after the government of Saad Hariri collapsed demonstrated the countries' interest in fostering regional stability. Prime Minister Erdogan's most recent speech, in which he warned President Mubarak to "step down" and "take steps that will satisfy his people," is a clear indicator of Turkey's arrival as the Middle East's self-appointed kingmaker.

Having waited for close to a week to make a grand proclamation on the events taking place in his neighborhood, Erdogan responded clearly and forcibly to his domestic critics of his foreign policy by placing Turkey on the side of the anti-regime movements throughout the Middle East. Proclaiming that, "Turkey is playing a role that can upturn all the stones in the region and that can change the course of history." Erdogan shone a spotlight on his Justice and Development Party's (AKP) pursuit of "foreign policy with character." Critics quickly pointed to Erdogan's hypocrisy when it came to his embrace of Iranian President Ahmadenijad's oppression of the Green Movement in 2009 and President Omar Al-Bashir's regime in Sudan, but few Turks seem concerned.

As seen from the region, Turkey's strategy of diplomatic and economic engagement has been a welcome one. With its non-sectarian and pragmatic focus, Ankara offers the greatest economic incentives to find a political and sustainable as opposed to violent solutions to the problems of the Middle East today. The opportunity for Ankara comes in part because of the lack of Arab leadership and in part because of its own proactive policies in a region that it once ignored. While leading Arab states, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have been less enthusiastic about the protest movements and Turkey's emerging role, particularly in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and intra-Arab affairs, fearing a loss of primacy in these areas they have little choice. Their very weakness in comparison to the economic opportunities and popularity of an indigenous democracy led by a freely elected legitimate conservative Muslim party makes the case for Turkey even stronger. On the whole, the Turks have been embraced by both the Arab states and street that welcome the pragmatic and business-savvy nature of Turkish diplomacy. As a gateway to both Europe and America, Turkey has already established itself an important player and convening spot for the actors of the region.

The popularity of Turkey and Erdogan within the Arab world has already allowed the AKP to turn traditional Turkish foreign policy on its head by drawing strength from its common heritage and history with its Middle Eastern neighbors rather than being a handicap. Turkish foreign policy under the AKP has come to articulate a vision for improving relations with all its neighbors, particularly by privileging its former Ottoman space in the Middle East, such as Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, and Syria where agreements are being negotiated for a free-trade zone and an eventual Middle Eastern Union. The growing economic and political engagement of Turkey with the Middle East has already lead to a significant realignment in the region.

...

With the fastest growing and largest economy in the Middle East, Turkey is uniquely placed to play a decisive role in providing alternatives models for the newly emerging governments of the region. As a longtime ally of the West and new partner of Iran and Syria, Turkey has been seeking the role of mediator and model in every available arena including Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia. As a G-20 founding member, holder of a seat on the UN Security Council, European Union aspirant, and head of the OIC, Ankara has transformed itself into an international actor, capable of bringing considerable clout and influence to its regions. Turkey did not transform itself from a defeated post-Ottoman state led by Ataturk's military to a flourishing market-democracy overnight, it has been almost a century in the making, however the lessons learned and the opportunities offered by Turkey to Egypt and the rest of the Arab world should be cautiously heeded. The Turks are poised to return as the Middle East's most important and influential kingmaker.

[AKalam]

Obama, as it is clearly evident to many, is not a leader endowed with exceptional intestinal fortitude and intelligence, he is at best above average, so expecting more than what he is doing, such as going with the flow is expecting too much from him.

Someone earlier pointed out in this thread, that this rumble is the first sign that the era of Arab backwardness, a result IMHO of being under the Turk rule for 500-800 years, which the Anglo/French duopoly exploited around the last half of 19th century, an effort that culminated in the break up of Ottoman and setting up of these little countries and their tin pots, is finally coming to an end. The status quo is changing. The events are just showing symptoms of this coming change. Whether Mubarak steps down today or is forced out, or not, is of little consequence.

Loss of sovereignty and the resulting Socioeconomic deprivation is a great loss for a body politic, a great "disruptive" force in my little theory and these macro wounds take a long time to heal, but as always, time is the greatest healer.

I believe the wounds in the body politic of the subcontinent will also heal, as people become more developed, knowledgeable and conscious of the world around them and one day will hopefully understand more clearly what is the best course for their long term interest.

JMT

[Prem]

Egypt: ABC News Reporter Brian Hartman Threatened With Beheading
Attacks on Foreign Press Growing During Egyptian Uprising
http://abcnews.go.com/story?id=12832774
( Atithi Devo Bhya)

Watch: Confrontation in Cairo Producer Brian Hartman, cameraman Akram Abi-hanna and two other ABC News employees were surrounded on a crowded road that leads from Cairo's airport to the city's downtown area. While ABC News and other press agencies had been taking precautions to avoid volatile situations, the road to the airport had been a secure route until today. One of their two vehicles was carrying cameras and transmission equipment strapped to the roof, indicating they were foreign journalists. Hartman says it was only through the appeal of Abi-hanna, who is Lebanese and a veteran ABC cameraman, that they were saved from being killed or severely beaten. "We thought we were goners," Hartman said later. "We absolutely thought we were doomed." Word of their harrowing ordeal came in a Twitter message from Hartman that stated, "Just escaped after being carjacked at a checkpoint and driven to a compound where men surrounded the car and threatened to behead us." The men released us only after our camera man appealed to the generous spirit of the Egyptian people, hugging and kissing an elder," he added in a subsequent tweet.

[ramana]

Sala! One riot and the empire got rolled back to 1400s! Now Turks are back in importance. Lawrence would be turning over not to mention Churchill.

[sanjaykumar]

It will be a long time coming, if ever. A contrast of Pakistan with Egypt is most instructive.

I do not believe Egypt has any value as a model for Pakistan to effect change towards a more representative society.

The Egyptians have been mobilised as Pakistanis have never been. Egyptians feel they can physically rebel-East Pakistanis know the cost of that rebellion. Egypt is a per capita income of $3500, Pakistan is close to $500. Egypt has a large middle class, Pakistan has a minuscule one, Egypt provides technical manpower for a lot of the Arab world, Pakistan college education is basically worthless. Egyptian are secure in their Islamic identity, Pakistanis have no identity other than Islam, which they cling to like drowning men.


In a word Pakistan is a peasant society kept ignorant and poor as state policy. these are not people to whom democracy, justice, fair play, enterprise have any meaning.

[abhishek_sharma]

White House, Egypt Discuss Plan for Mubarak’s Exit

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world ... omacy.html

The Obama administration is discussing with Egyptian officials a proposal for President Hosni Mubarak to resign immediately and turn over power to a transitional government headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman with the support of the Egyptian military, administration officials and Arab diplomats said Thursday.

...

The proposal also calls for the transitional government to invite members from a broad range of opposition groups, including the banned Muslim Brotherhood, to begin work to open up the country’s electoral system in an effort to bring about free and fair elections in September, the officials said.

[abhishek_sharma]

As Islamist Group Rises, Its Intentions Are Unclear

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world ... rhood.html

After maintaining a low profile in protests led largely by secular young Egyptians, the Muslim Brotherhood, the country’s largest opposition force, appeared to be taking a more assertive role on Thursday, issuing a statement asking for President Hosni Mubarak to step aside for a transitional government.

...