West Asia News and Discussions

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 10 Feb 2011 09:18

Mubarak: 'Egypt will never accept pressure. However, we are willing to be persuaded.' (in Jan 2009)

http://wikileaks.foreignpolicy.com/post ... _persuaded

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 10 Feb 2011 09:25

Inside the White House Egypt meeting

http://www.politico.com/blogs/lauraroze ... ting_.html

The White House invited several Middle East scholars to discuss the Egypt upheaval Tuesday.

...

“The administration has had a horrible problem with message discipline,” one attendee said on condition of anonymity. “I think the people in the room from the administration are largely in synch, but projecting that out to all the parts of the administration is not working."

"They believe they understand how the president sees it," he continued. "But to get the Secretary of State on board and the spokesmen and everyone else – they end up having the policy which they believe is clear, which is perceived [on the outside] to be vacillating.”

...

Vice President Joe Biden then took a more forceful posture Tuesday, pressing Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman in a phone call for a series of concrete and immediate reforms -- which were detailed in an unusually lengthy and explicit White House readout of the call.

The NSC officials in the meeting Tuesday were very enthusiastic about Biden’s more forceful message to Suleiman, attendees said, which included among its explicit requests pressing for the immediate lifting of Egypt’s controversial emergency law, under which thousands of dissidents, bloggers and activists have been arrested, and which has been in place since 1981.

Some meeting attendees Tuesday were skeptical, however, that the administration's mixed signals are the result of a message discipline problem, rather than "a sign that the administration cannot seem to make up its mind," as Abrams put it in a blog post Wednesday.

...

"I think they're blowing in the wind," an attendee put it more bluntly.

...

“One thing that struck me is a certain optimism that you can’t put the toothpaste back in tube,” he continued. “That Egypt is irrevocably changed from what it was two weeks ago. And that in the long run Egypt is going to move in a positive direction.”

But not everyone who attended the discussion shares that sense of certainty.

The situation “could go in a number of directions, some positive, some neutral, some negative," said CSIS's Alterman, who lived in Egypt in the 1990s, and who declined to discuss the internal meeting discussion.

...

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 10 Feb 2011 09:27

On Egypt, Ban plays the waiting game

http://turtlebay.foreignpolicy.com/post ... iting_game

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 10 Feb 2011 09:30

Inside the White House - State Department rift on Egypt

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... t_on_egypt

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 10 Feb 2011 09:41

Vikram Sood's article

Politics of a revolt

According to the latest disclosures from WikiLeaks, in a remarkable display of unemotional national interest, the United States agreed to supply details of every Trident nuclear missile they had given the British to the Russians as a bargaining chip for the America-Russia Arms Control Treaty that US President Barack Obama will sign soon. The fact that the Americans also spied on British foreign ministers for gossip on their personal lives is par for the course. All intelligence agencies do this to all their friends.

The recent upheaval in Egypt has also seen another example of American real politics in action. For three decades, President Hosni Mubarak was the presiding deity in Egypt — he was plied with more than $1 billion annually, and democracy and freedom of speech or economic development were never serious issues. In fact, economic dependence helped American farmers — Egypt was the world’s largest importer of wheat, and they bought most of it from the US, and its armed forces were totally dependent on US largesse and weaponry. Yet almost overnight, Mr Mubarak became persona non grata in Washington as the US prepared for a change in the leadership in Cairo. Not so long ago it was Cairo from where Mr Obama made his famous speech to the Muslim, essentially Arab, world in 2009. Mr Mubarak’s possible fate should be a stark reminder to all dictators, allies, friends and wannabes that when a major power acts, it does so only in its perceived national interest. This is not a value judgment but a reiteration of fact.

The apparent suddenness of the uprising in Tunisia followed by Egypt does leave a few unanswered questions. Undoubtedly, there were genuine grievances — both economic and political — that the average person faced along with a repressive regime. But any movement of the nature seen on the streets of Egypt’s major cities requires a leadership to guide the movement, co-ordination, organisation and funds to sustain it for some length of time because there is no “best before” date in such cases. The next question is whether there was a failure of intelligence or intent or was this ignored both in Cairo and Washington for different reasons.
Initially the impression was that the Mubarak regime was going to follow the Rangoon 1988 model to try and suppress the movement. The Burma generals had first withdrawn the police, then a mysterious jail break at Rangoon’s largest jail, Insein, took place followed by looting and lawlessness, followed by an Army shootout to suppress the movement. A similar attempt to discredit the movement in Cairo did not succeed partly because quite early into the movement the non-resident Egyptian Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei was para-dropped into Cairo as the chosen leader of the movement — and as an acceptable alternative to Mr Mubarak. The Burma junta did not have to deal with Facebook, Twitter and cellphones. The only TV channel they had to contend with was BBC. The movement in Egypt gives the impression of being a largely urban affair — wherever TV could reach and not in small towns like Aswan, Luxor or in the villages.

Considerable credit is being given to social network sites for the spontaneity of the uprising. There has been enough Egyptian activity on the Internet for members of the US Senate to ask if the US Intelligence failed to notice that a revolution was taking place in cyberspace. The April 6 Youth Movement which gave a call for a “Day of Anger” on January 25 was actually set up on Facebook on April 6, 2008, and the Kifaya (Enough) Movement, associated with Egypt’s largest Opposition party, the Ikhwan (Muslim Brotherhood), which backs Mr Baradei’s National Association for Change coalition, was set up in 2004. Thus the organisational levers existed when the anti-Mubarak movement was launched and the Ikhwan will be relevant in any future democratic dispensation in Cairo. Social network sites may help bring down a government or launch a movement but they cannot govern.

Recent commentaries from the US suggest an attempt to portray the Ikhwan as a moderate force. But this discourse is similar to the good/moderate Taliban discourse in the Afghan context — it ignores Ikhwan’s essentially radical and violent creed. And in any case, future inevitability of having to deal with such groups defines this new discourse. A decline in terrorist incidents does not mean the movement is dead for they may merely be lying low; nor does an increase in incidents indicate that the government is losing. Nevertheless, there is far too much at stake for Europe and America in the region from the Maghreb to the Caucasus to let it slip away from its dominance.

The Ikhwan has taken advantage of Western beliefs in democracy and liberalism for its demonstrations and Western technology of the Internet and cellphones to organise the demonstrations. There is no need to establish ownership of the movement because any association with the movement would frighten away the West and the movement may well die. The Ikhwan probably assesses its opportunity to establish ownership of the government and that will possibly come in September by when Mr Mubarak would have gone. It therefore feels it is prudent to keep a low profile and just use the momentum till then. Meanwhile, it will make all the right and responsible statements about honouring past treaties.

Whatever happens in or by September, the region is not going to be the same. Israel, with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in the Lebanon, would be watching events in Egypt most closely to see if the Brotherhood emerges stronger. Jordan and Syria too seem restless, Iraq remains unsettled and the Yemeni President’s future is uncertain at a time when the country faces an Al Qaeda-inspired insurgency. The Saudis may feel somewhat reassured that it is the Ikhwan which may have a future role in Egypt and not Al Qaeda. The Iranians would be both apprehensive about the emergence of a regime dominated by a radical Sunni organisation and triumphant about the decline of US influence. The Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei in one of his rare appearances at the Friday prayers supported the Egyptians’ fight for dignity and honour while describing Mr Mubarak as a “servant” of the US. He described the developments as a “real earthquake”, rather like Hillary Clinton calling these a “perfect storm”.
It is still early days and no one has ever had a perfect storm. Come September and we may know better.

Vikram Sood is a former head of the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence agency

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 10 Feb 2011 18:23

Wired and Shrewd, Young Egyptians Guide Revolt - http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/10/world ... ml?_r=1&hp

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 10 Feb 2011 20:59

End of Mubarak?

A senior member of Egypt's governing party has told the BBC he "hopes" that President Hosni Mubarak will transfer power to Vice-President Omar Suleiman.

Hossan Badrawi, secretary general of the National Democratic Party (NDP), said Mr Mubarak would "most probably" speak to the nation within hours.

From BBC

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Feb 2011 22:05

The Pharaoh's final hours!

Egypt protests: live
President Hosni Mubarak 'may be stepping down', a senior member of the governing party has said. The army will meet the demands of protesters, military and ruling party officials said.
Mubarak is expected to address the nation later today.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -live.html

Mubarak may quit, Egyptian prime minister tells BBC
• Military says Mubarak will meet protesters' demands
• Mubarak expected to address the nation later on Thursday
• Crowds stream back into Tahrir Square in central Cairo

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 10 Feb 2011 22:34

Is it a military coup in Egypt?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Feb 2011 23:32

it started as one and is being forced into something else.

Meanwhile Nightwatch comments on 2/9/11

Night Watch 2/9/2011

Egypt: Protesters in Tahrir Square, Cairo, are asking citizens to take part in demonstrations on 11 February, for the "Day of Confrontation," Al Arabiya reported. One news service reported tens of millions of text messages about the event. According to a report in the Indian Express, "organizers" want a "big push" on Friday that could include storming parliament and the state television station in Cairo.

On 9 February, about 8,000 protesters, mainly farmers, set barricades of flaming palm trees in Assiut province in complaint of bread shortages, blocking the main highway and railway to Cairo, The Associated Press reported.

In Cairo, about 10,000 protesters gathered in Tahrir Square, 2,000 protesters gathered near the parliament and hundreds of state electricity workers stood in front of the South Cairo Electricity Co. demanding that its director step down.

Public transport workers at five of the Cairo's 17 garages also protested, calling for President Mubarak to step down and vowing that buses would be halted on 10 February. Public Transport Authority (PTA) drivers and employees said they demand better incentives. Several hundred workers demonstrated at factories in Cairo's industrial suburb of Helwan and strikes entered a second day in the city of Suez.

About 5,000 workers at various state companies -- including textile workers, medicine bottle manufacturers, sanitation workers and a firm involved in repairs for ships on the Suez Canal -- held separate strikes and protests at their factories.

Roughly 3,000 Egyptian National Railways (ENR) employees went on strike and demanded Transport Minister Atef Abdel Hamid re-evaluate their incentives, Al-Masry Al-Youm reported 9 February. The employees sat on railway lines and said they would not move until their demands are satisfied. ENR had instructions to answer demands and end the strike peaceably, a Transport Ministry official said.

About 3,000 protesters near Port Said, northeast of Cairo, torched the Port Said governorate headquarters after finding a complaint they had sent to the governor in a garbage can, Al-Masry Al-Youm reported.

Protesters also clashed for several hours with security forces and police in Al-Wadi Al-Gadeed in the early morning hours, Ahram Online reported. The incident began outside of the police station, and security and fire personnel were sent to defend the city's police headquarters as the confrontation intensified. Protesters managed to set the station, as well as an adjoining prison, on fire, destroying it.

Comment: The significance of the incidents outside Cairo is that the movement is changing. Important stakeholders in the system - farmers, factory workers, drivers, port and canal workers, railroad workers - have finally appeared in the protest mix. In Cairo and in the towns where government buildings and police stations were attacked, that was the old protest movement still at work.

The new protests involve people with a lot to lose from job actions. Their complaints are different too, consistently about economic conditions. They have the power to steer the protests in a very different direction than the educated urban youth in Cairo.

The workers groups simply could be taking advantage of the stress in the system to bargain for better working conditions. On the other hand, if strikes and workers' job actions persist and expand, today's protests will represent a turning point that could lead to a bottom-up revolution. And if merchants and professionals stop work, Readers should expect marches on Cairo, vice in Cairo, and violence. In any event, the lull was short-lived and the confrontation is heading towards escalating violence. This is a warning.

Note: al Jazeera is note cited as the source of any of the above reports of protests.

Politics. Senior Muslim Brotherhood (MB) member Essam el-Erian said MB talks with Vice President Omar Suleiman have yet to tackle the central issue of the transfer of power, Reuters reported. El-Erian said the talks were a struggle over the stubbornness of President Mubarak. MB member Saad el-Katatni said a second meeting of preliminary talks would happen within days and that the MB must be serious when real talks do begin.

Vice President Omar Suleiman said during an interview President Mubarak will remain in office until September 2011, during which he will implement reforms, Al-Ahram reported. A presidential election will be held on 14 October under judicial and international observation, and Mubarak has promised that no one in his family will run for the office, Suleiman said. Suleiman added that the Muslim Brotherhood should engage in talks with the government because it is a political force with a social agenda.

Comment: In this interview, Suleiman legitimated the Brotherhood in national life, contrasting with the constant harassment and roundups that have characterized the government's handling of the Brotherhood during every election campaign. This is a red flag for a deal between the Army and the Brotherhood.

President Mubarak will not travel to Germany for a medical check-up, Vice President Suleiman said, adding Egypt is thankful for the German offer but the president does not need medical treatment, according to the German news service DPA.

Libya: Leader Qadhafi in a private meeting warned activists, journalists and media personalities that they would be held responsible if they participated in disturbances of the peace, witnesses said. The National Conference for the Libyan Opposition and political activists called for a Libyan "Day of Rage" on 17 February. Most of the attendees at the private meeting were from eastern Libyan cities, witnesses said.

Comment: The strength of the Qadhafi regime has been questionable for many years, but not put to the test … yet.

Correction: Special thanks to a brilliant and diligent Reader who provided more accurate information on the Erdogan quote. In 1995 Prime Minister Erdogan said, "Democracy is like a streetcar, when you come to your stop you get off." Democracy as a tool is a different view of democracy from that which Americans and most Europeans hold. It accurately describes what Hamas did and maybe a guide for what other groups will do or have begun to do.

Maybe Mubarak has to go to ensure movement and Egypt are not destroyed.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 10 Feb 2011 23:47

I am eagerly praying and waiting for the whole west-asia to democratically elect islamic fundamentalists as the next round of leaders. That will settle some karma in the medium term.

AKalam · Post by **AKalam** » 11 Feb 2011 00:00

I think Mubarak, Omar Suleiman and their types are already history. About a takeover by radical Islamists under the guise of Muslim Brotherhood, Iran style, it is too early to tell. Iran regime itself is under threat from the same Internet inspired youthful people-power forces leading this wave of mostly peaceful revolts/uprisings. Even though there might be Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) with a lot of history (at the root of past 100 years of Islamism that was used by superpowers and thus morphed into the worldwide violent radical extremist problem we see today), included and perhaps dominant in the new Egyptian democratic ruling structure, if they do not and cannot deliver Turkish style growth and prosperity for the masses like the AKP, they will soon be booted out of power in the next election cycle. Once people have tasted power, they are not going to go back to accept any non-representative regime, whatever their ideological affiliations may be. JMT

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 11 Feb 2011 00:10

Marten, what have you heard? I don't think he is into all that if I am honest. Unlike perhaps other Kings in the region.

Ramana, washington wants him out but keep the system intact. That's the crux. If he's got this far, I am sure he will wait it out and survive.
Did you see the KSA news about aid this morning?

All that's going to happen now is that, there will be MORE cronies to feed. Egypt will open up a bit more and Suleiman or whoever rules will have to spread corruption money around to a few more people.
This is the typical Indian response to such problems. I expect the same in egypt.

Summary of what I am trying to say is:
So far only NDP members have benefitted, now the ruling coalition will expand to feed more people.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 11 Feb 2011 00:38

As per reports Mubarak may stepdown in the next 24 hours. You never know.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Feb 2011 00:39

AKalam and Shyamd,

Read the sub-text of the NW report. Suleiman just legitimized the MB yesterday. So its a Army-MB partnership. The old kabila meme asserts itself.

The military sheltered the old Ghazawas and the MB the old mullahs. So they are uniting to ward of bigger dangers.

DC is really caught in the sudden headwinds and lack of history scholars.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Feb 2011 00:39

What say folks? A very effective and less expensive engineering by maaasa, no? Short term Collateral damage almost negligible. Mid-term and long-term, who knows and who cares.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 11 Feb 2011 00:39

Going exactly as predicted on BR. Omar Suleiman thinks people are tired of Mubarak but he is missing the point. It is the party,the elite,the system that has to go. Military steps in............................I wonder if any body can name a military officer who could be tolerated (for the time being) by aam admi.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Feb 2011 00:51

This could be in the Indo-US dhaaga as well. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/opini ... ossdouthat

But this narrative never really fit the facts. On nearly every anti-terror front, from detainee policy to drone strikes, the Obama administration has been what The Washington Times’s Eli Lake calls a “9/14 presidency,” maintaining or even expanding the powers that George W. Bush claimed in the aftermath of 9/11. (Dick Cheney himself admitted as much last month, effectively retracting his 2009 claim that Obama’s terrorism policies were undermining national security.) Time and again, this president has proved himself a careful custodian of both American and presidential prerogatives — and the most perceptive critics of his policies, tellingly, have been civil libertarians rather than Republican partisans.

If the Obama White House has its way, any opening to democracy will be carefully stage-managed by an insider like Omar Suleiman, the former general and Egyptian intelligence chief who’s best known in Washington for his cooperation with the C.I.A.’s rendition program. This isn’t softheaded peacenik dithering. It’s cold-blooded realpolitik.

In Egypt, Obama has Mohammed ElBaradei, the Muslim Brotherhood and the crowds: the first dubious as a grass-roots leader, the second dangerous, and the third perilously disorganized.

This is a situation that calls for great caution, rather than grand idealistic gestures. And it calls for a certain measure of relief, from the American public, that this liberal president’s foreign policy instincts have turned out to be so temperamentally conservative.

As I keep saying Dems and Repubs are the same when it comes to preserving and safeguarding American Interests.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 11 Feb 2011 01:54

Mubarak does a Musharraf

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Feb 2011 02:01

Folks this thread is useful if one posts news and not whines! Please dont come here to get updates only. Try to post whats happening.
Thanks, ramana

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Feb 2011 02:06

Hindustan Times says it s coup.

Coup?

Army Issues Communique #1

Read on.

Ameet · Post by **Ameet** » 11 Feb 2011 02:19

http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... s/1?csp=hf

Update at 4:03 p.m. ET: Hundreds of thousands of protesters respond to Mubarak's speech with "get out, get out!"

Update at 4:02 p.m. ET: Mubarak says he has delegated "some of the powers" of the presidency to his vice president, but does not elaborate.

Update at 4 p.m. ET: Mubarak's speech has touched off full-throated shouts from hundreds of thousands in Tahrir Square from angry protesters.

Update at 3:58 p.m. ET: Mubarak says he is speaking "from the heart" in a speech "from father to his children, sons and daughters." He says the changes "we started" can never be reversed.

Update at 3:56 p.m. ET: President Mubarak says he will stay in office to guarantee fair elections in September, while calling for changes in the constitution regarding the electoral process. Crowds jammed into Tahrir Square begin getting restless, start jeering.

Update at 3:51 p.m. ET:President Mubarak says he will remain in office until September presidential elections.

Update at 3:42 p.m. ET: Al-Arabiya TV says Mubarak, in his televised remarks, will pledge to ensure conditions for fair and transparent elections.

Update at 3:40 p.m. ET: Al-Arabyia TV reports that President Mubarak, in his speech, will announce changes in 5 constitutional amendments and the elimination of one, apparently those related to electoral processes, among other things.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Feb 2011 02:43

Mubarak is staying till Sept.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/11/world ... egypt.html

CAIRO — President Hosni Mubarak told the Egyptian people Thursday that he would delegate more authority to his vice president, Omar Suleiman, but that he would not resign his post, contradicting earlier reports that he would step aside and surprising hundreds of thousands of demonstrators gathered to hail his departure from the political scene. ...

Leasve Ombaba high and dry as he committed to support orderly transition in Egypt expecting Mubarak will step aside and let an interim govt rule.

So what will US do? Cut the $1B 'aid"?
But its used for farm imports from US!

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 11 Feb 2011 03:01

Protesters point shoes at the big screen during Suleman's speech. I don't think Mubarak/Suleman would give away so easily.Suleman did slip it when he said "the military will ensure a smooth transition" - so there's no point in trying to guess who's side the military is on. In either case, i still struggle to understand why the west wants El-Bardei so badly ! The muppets on CNBC/CNN are almost trying to push Mubarak out!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Feb 2011 03:06

One theory,
Omababa needs Isreal to settle the Palestine issue. Its one of the OBL rages that feeds AlQ.

With a strong Egypt it makes no sense to Israel to give in to Palestine. So Mubarak is collateral. The idea is to induce them to settle or see there is so much resentment around. I think it ignored Egypt's historical forces. They haven't been run over like Romans. They just bent with the whirlwind.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 11 Feb 2011 03:27

Look at it in this way : When we did have a strongman ruling Egypt in form of Nasser, and when Egypt was visibly anti-Israel that still did not force Israel to give an inch on the Palestine issue. If El-Bardei is placed into power, that'll only make the Israelis more nervous and tighten their stand. Besides, the El-Bardei choice in itself comes across as quite odd. He has not lived in Egypt for a while now, and he did not tug the line of yanks when he was the head of IAEA - so why him?

I can take a wild guess : US could probably be supporting Mubarak/Military in the background all the while crowing about 'democracy' in front of TV cameras. Probably thats what makes Mubarak so confident that he can carry on and pass the baton to another military guy.If oil shoots above 120$ again, it'll plunge the global economy back to its 2008 levels.Things are heating up in Jordan too and what if there's disturbance in KSA ? There are enough mullas there to create trouble.This cannot be good for US or any other nation in west.

It is rather strange that Egypt is now in the cross-hair,a country from which Obama reached out to the muslim world .

AKalam · Post by **AKalam** » 11 Feb 2011 03:50

Mubarak and Suleiman et al I believe are out of touch. The protesters are not backing down. A brutal crackdown by the army is the next logical step, which the army will go for at its own peril. The plot thickens.

If this is an example of internet inspired "smart mobs" or "flash mobs" then this is just the beginning for this trend. History cannot be a good guide for this as this technology has never existed in the past. It is the new golden era of organized citizen activism:

http://www.smartmobs.com/
http://www.smartmobs.com/book/

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 11 Feb 2011 03:51

Either deliberate or not - Both CIA and the media got it totally wrong during the past 24 hours.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Feb 2011 04:13

Obama wrongfooted by Mubarak as White House tries to keep up
I heard SA sending sound bites about aiding Egypt if USA stops aid.

linky

The US would suspend aid immediately if the military was to crackdown on peaceful protesters in the way of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in 2009 and the Chinese military in 1989.

Does this answer why it is all so benign?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Feb 2011 04:27

Muppalla wrote:Either deliberate or not - Both CIA and the media got it totally wrong during the past 24 hours.

Saudi Arabia seems to have been straddling different thoughts too.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/95d0ee5c-3541 ... z1DbLH4N71

Saudi Arabia’s unequivocal support for Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian president, has shown signs of moderating as the kingdom seeks to appear neutral and closer to the public mood in Egypt, according to Saudi analysts.

“Saudi Arabia has recently begun to keep its distance from the situation in Egypt,’’ said a Saudi observer close to the government. “They realised the revolution is genuinely popular, with an Egyptian agenda. It was not incited by radical elements. It is not about foreign policy, US flag burning, or Palestine. It is about Egypt and they do not want to be seen as against the people.”

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 11 Feb 2011 04:37

He's come this far. He's got money and countries backing him. I said it before, the timing of quiting now doesn't sound right.

Now protestors heading to the palace, its gonna end with people dieing or Mubarak fleeing. Take your pick.

All eyes on army. If I was CIA, I'd tell army - move in now and remove him. Pack him off to KSA to live next to Ben Ali please.

Good night

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Feb 2011 04:45

^^^
He must have the army backing, else he would not make the last defiant stance. How much ever a dictator is evil, bad, egoistic, ....{fill in the blanks} ....he needs support from people who he uses to control others. Here it is army and police. He will flee if the army leaders sit with him for a chai biskoot session and tell "Mia we had a nice time so far..... but now it is Khuda Afeez onlee. Here is some money and airplane for your services." Or he will flee if he senses his backers are split. The question is, is the army under takleef now?

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 11 Feb 2011 05:17

Army is under Suleman, Suleman clearly mentioned that in his speech this evening. The military has a conundrum here, if Mubarak flees that means Suleman goes with him, which clearly means the army loses its prized place in Egypt and make way for El-Bardei or some other obscure guy.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Feb 2011 06:33

Ambar, Army is clear. They are Egypt. They cant give up. And wont. If US pushes it will lead to violence. In Romania some US based expatriates went back and led the riots in late 80s. Same as the google guy.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Feb 2011 06:44

Ambar wrote:Army is under Suleman

I think we have to change the language here. We ought to frame it as "Army is FOR Suleman".

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 11 Feb 2011 06:51

If the army backs up Mubarak now, and use decisive force to break public resistance - it will win the day but it will lose the war with its own people. Which means the next time around it will only be able to survive by splitting itself into two and one part pretends to join up on behalf of the people.

The activists and the crowd can only either try to storm the "palace", but without a Bolshevik style preparation with cells within the army or arming of the people - they are likely to fail. A better strategy would be to follow the classic pattern of sitting in where they are, declare themselves a new Constituent Assembly and elect its own transition government. Under current situations, they will gain legitimacy even if it seems like play-acting now.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Feb 2011 06:55

It wont use force.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Feb 2011 08:34

A notable feature is there is no American flag burning, American President effigies burning, and other regular rants against America. No guns blasting rounds into the air; not much violence except when the horses and camels riding people rammed into the standing protesters. Remarkably less violence for revolution.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Feb 2011 10:32

El Baradei asks Egyptian army to save Egypt.

Sri · Post by **Sri** » 11 Feb 2011 10:48

I feel Mubarak is living in a bubble. My bet is that Army has given up on him. Look at the way the area of protest is growing. If Army wanted they had enough opportunity to crack down. Just that Military leaders still feel some guilt in turning against Mubarak, so they are letting the people do the talking.