Johann wrote:I cant see India ever extending a nuclear umbrella over Saudi Arabia against Iran, or Indian pilots flying airstrikes in Saudi planes against tribal rebels in Yemen.
shyamd wrote:Thanks but no thanks. I agree. Training and others maybe good. Johann, US has put India on a list of nations that it is happy with, so Washington is pushing KSA and the wider GCC with India together. It also makes sense because it could be good to prevent a conflict with TSP. I hope the India extracts some $$'s from the GCC by way of investments. India did offer KSA "cooperation in strategic missiles" as well as civil nuke energy.
India's game till now has been mostly to keep the world environment friendly for India's economic and military recuperation, and to keep the Pakistanis and Chinese at bay. We have tried to play straight, so as not to step on too many toes. I do support this line to an extent.
But India is soon reaching a stage, where India would be the third/fourth most powerful country in the world. Such talk sounds a bit premature, but it is important that we think about what is India's play going to be going forward. In a world, where one of India's most implacable rivals is making a dash for superpowerdom - China, and where our own power quotient has also improved, India needs a game plan for the future.
To be frank, I think India has already lost the Great Game for influence in Central Asia. We don't have any direct trade or supply route to Central Asia, Pakistan being in the way. The road from Iran is very tenuous, sensitive to the vagaries of India's position on Iran's nuclearization and Iran's own Islamist machinations in the region, Khamenei's repeated calls for self-determination for Kashmir being a prime example. We can continue to play the Great Game, possibly through money, but direct involvement seems to be out of the question. If we accept this fact of life, then the strategic importance of Iran decreases. It does not mean, India stops dealing with Iran altogether or starts indulging in anti-Iranian rhetoric, there is a lot of business to be done, but let's not treat Iran, nay Islamic Iran, as the pivot of our strategic options.
The Iranians have drawn the first blood on the question of India's territorial integrity. The reason it should be a wake-up call, is because within India, Iran has always been considered a friend, a strategic friend, a civilizational friend. Such anti-India talk may have been coming from other quarters in the Muslim world as well, but unlike Iran, India hasn't really looked upon others as close friends.
Moreover, it seems China has already stitched up a nice alliance for itself in Central Asia, based on Iran and Turkey, besides the usual culprit, Pakistan. Considering all the energy pipelines, all the trade between China and the others, all the shared anti-Americanism amongst them, all their civilizational stakes in Central Asia, and their convergence of interests on all these points, I think for India it is next to impossible to change the game just yet in India's favor. Iran is lost to China for the moment.
The only play India can make in Asia, or let's say Western half of Asia, is the consolidation of our position in the Arabian Peninsula.
An Indo-GCC Alliance with an Indo-Saudi Alliance at its core, would go a long way in helping India consolidate its own power basis in Asia, as well as to helping India to deal with her minorities. India-GCC Alliance is the only game still open for us.
India should offer a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia against a theocratic Iran. The nuclear umbrella should only be for the duration as long as there is theocratic rule in Iran. When theocracy falls in Iran, the Saudis too would not need a nuclear umbrella. Neither would it be in India's interest to oppose a non-Islamic Iran. But till then, a nuclear umbrella can be offered.
As far as Yemen is concerned, I think Indian pilots should be flying those planes. I don't wish to elaborate here, but some of it is available in the ebook I wrote.
Most of India's Muslims are Sunni. So one could handle an Indo-Saudi Alliance, even if it doesn't sit too well with the Indian Shias. Sitting on the fence, would not help India, when the world is being cut up again in areas of influence, and strategic alliances.
Johann wrote:The post-1979 Saudi-Iranian competition to see who can provide the most militant leadership of the ummah has been one of the most destabilising factors in the Muslim world, right up there with the US-Soviet Cold War.
Af-Pak is one of those places where both competitions intersected.
shyamd wrote:Rajesh, that wouldn't work - in fact Saudi's are incredibly insulted everytime Wahabism is insulted - they see it as misinterpretation. Also, Rajesh, what about TSP? If KSA don't finance TSP, then lets say govt goes broke, that place is going to be incredibly unstable and the virus has a bigger excuse to grow.
I haven't suggested that we insult Wahhabism. By aligning ourselves with the Saudi Royal Family, we are in a way, already coming in support of Wahhabism.
That said, some Indians, like me, claim the Indian Subcontinent as the exclusive playground of India. As Johann ji says, there is a proxy war going on between the Iranians and the Saudis. I don't want that proxy war being played out in the Indian Subcontinent. Secondly we want an Islam in the Indian Subcontinent, which feels at ease sharing space with the Hindus, as well as acknowledging pride in the region's pre-Islamic Civilization. If Wahhabism can contribute to such an Islam, they are welcome. If not, India has the right to demand from the Saudis to keep out, and it need not be understood as India's opposition or insult to Wahhabism per se. But the world is a big place. There are many people around the world, to whom the Saudi's message of peace can be brought to. And India need not protest about that.
Demanding from the Saudi's to respect India's area of influence, in exchange for providing them with Security, is a necessary condition for the longevity of an alliance. This is a strategic and not an ideological demand.
The instability in TSP is perhaps the most significant reason why India needs to enter into an alliance with the Saudis. In India's demands on Saudi financing in the Indian Subcontinent, perhaps my language was not sufficiently precise. I would rephrase that as,
"I would prefer an Indian supervision of all GCC money being sent to the Indian Subcontinent, regarding who is financed, by how much, and what kind of worldview should be encouraged amongst those financed". It is not necessary for India to cut off all money going into Pakistan. In fact, if others don't do it, India would be forced to pick up the tab. So you are right, as far as the need to continue financing of Pakistan is concerned. But the instability in TSP also means, that India needs to be able to control the situation there, as far as that is possible, and the Saudis have very good levers in Pakistan, so one would in fact need to approach the fountainhead of financing and ideological molding - Saudi Arabia, and the only reason they would offer us those levers is if we too offer them something - and that is protection from the big bad world of which they too are a part.
