VikramS wrote:
There has to be a reason for the TSP establishment sparing nothing to blame the US for every leaf which falls in Pakistan, for the floods, for the IEDs, for the TTP. Why do they put Zaid Hamid on air for years yelling YYY? Why do you think they scream and shout about Blackwater being after their crown jewels.
The TSP establishment has made its bets, and has made it clear who they prefer as the sugar-daddy.
I have a different take on this. Go back in time beyond the current crop of TV channels and access to Zaid Hamid (who I believe has needlessly gained prominence on BRF - he is really a nobody IMO) you find that Pakistan has for many decades maintained a charade of a "free press" and a "spectrum of political opinion" which the establishment have used in various ways. It has enabled them (the core establishment) to appear reasonable and liberal and contrary opinions in the press have been cited by them to "raise the price" of doing something when confronting sucker interlocutors from the US who will pay more.
I don't think the TSP establishment is so stupid as to assume things with anyone. Please pardon the piskology but I sense (nowadays) a great fear of China in a large number of articles emerging from the USA. The reasons for this may be debatable - but China is now being made the new great threat more and more in a varied slew of articles from America. If one starts seeing China as an equal to the US it is easy to reach the conclusion that China can replace the US. From India and from the subcontinent in general China does not loom as large as the US. The US is seen as having far more clout and as being a nation that has more advanced technology, greater reach and is more generous with cash than China. I think that the US - with its truly global perspective ensures that Americans are exposed to translations of the Chinese media and to China itself so Americans can see China up close in a way that China is not seen in the subcontinent. The Pakistani establishment would be foolish to confuse the US which has opened its purse strings and arsenal stores generously with a China that demanded action on Lal Masjid and pulled out from Gwadar.
VikramS wrote: However, what if it decides to give up the pole position to the CCP and let CCP guard whatever interests it has. After all in a lot of ways on the economic front the CCP/Unkil interests align: i.e. they want low-risk access to the mineral wealth of Central Asia while keeping an eye on the Gulf. What if the CCP guarantees a share of the loot to the US and then takes over the role of the head pimp?
Sorry I dislike expressions like "pole position" because they create a mental picture that may be inaccurate. Their interests are certainly aligned but the problem is TSP. TSP is not stable and things inside Pakistan are not secure. Even inside Pakistan people are fighting to make sure that they gain an extra advantage by acts of highway robbery. So you find that in Karachi or in the NWFP roads or trucks are stopped for payment of hafta. The Pakistani army may have its way in these situations because of its armed strength but that security for transport of materials and mineral cannot be guaranteed by anyone in Pakistan. If Pakistan has to become the conduit for millions of tons of minerals and a conduit for Chinese exports this must happen. The problem is in Pakistan and the US and China cannot use Pakistan effectively unless Pakistan's internal instability can be quelled. Now we start going around in circles if we start asking why there is internal instability in Pakistan. I would suggest reading my e book if you have not already done that. The Chinese have openly stated in articles linked off BR that security is a problem in Pakistan. The US sees that on a day to day basis. But the US is also paying Pakistan on a day to day basis while China is counting its pennies and paying only on a case by case basis.
VikramS wrote:What are the chances of the TSP following its natural path of evolution if instead of Blackwater, you have PLA building massive embassies and running the show on the ground. Think like a Paki once and try to figure out why they prefer the CCP over the Uncle.
I believe you are putting down your thoughts and are stating that this is how Pakis think. There are other ways that Pakis can think too and ways in which the US and China can affect Pakistani thoughts.
The US is far more evolved as an economy and as a super power. The US has for many decades put into position its assets for ensuring oil supplies and exports, and in addition the US has a far more diversified economy than China. For this reason the US can afford to be "wasteful" in Pakistan and give more than it directly gets. Adn what it has to "give" in terms of technology is far better and in terms of money far more generous than China.
Please note that in the para below some of my "statistics" may not be totally and I am willing to be corrected but I don't believe I am far wrong.
China has a huge economy that is dependent on manufacture - especially low tech manufacture. China has to send out 25 shiploads of plastic toys to gain the business that the US gains by selling one Boeing. As a result of this the Chinese economy too is dependent on huge inflows of raw material and oil to supply the huge manufacturing bas that it has developed. The Chinese economy that runs around services (consultancy) and banking is negligible and is nowhere near the US. Even in terms of Agriculture the US is more advanced and more stable. The US probably has 20% poverty. China has 50% and like an IndiaPakistan comparison, the Chinese numbers are bigger so the tasks China has in economic terms are larger.
For these reasons China is less profligate in "wasteful expenditure". China is looking to secure its communication lines and have a safe route for import and export in a world where the US can cut off Chinese imports and exports in a trice. It is easy to take an American viewpoint and fear the rise of China. But from the Chinese viewpoint the US has always had the capability to choke China's trade if it comes to conflict. It is ironic that India's rise is accused of being an Indian quest for being a superpower. Equally ironically, China's rise is said to be because China seeks "world domination". The power that has the greatest incentive to cook up such descriptions is the USA the current leader. Uneasy indeed lies the head that wears the crown. No one else can come up without attracting the attention of the king and classification as a threat.
China seeks a safe couduit in Pakistan. For all its bluster and lies Pakistan is unable to provide a safe conduit. That is clear to the Chinese and the Anericans, Yet the Americans persist in Pakistan - maintaining a strangle hold on Pakistan while China has played a peripheral game. If the US pulls out - Pakistan is not going to stabilize and suddenly have safe roadways and railways for China's goods - even if we assume that the US will allow things to happen that way.
Ironically on BRF it is unfashionable for breast beating patriotic Indians to say that India has a say as well. The safest thing for people to say on "Bharat Rakshak Forum" is that India is useless and impotent and the world is now led by China and the USA. Even questioning this often leads to demands that one "proves" that India has a say in events in Pakistan. But I am not going to bother. Bharat Rakshak usually revolves round paranoia about Pakistan and China and that paranoia is now spreading to a fear that America too is going to be dominated and equalled by China. With such a flawed set of "analyses" becoming more and more common - this forum is hardly the environment for serious debate.
Time pass onlee. "Why does MMS kowtow? What is Kaagress doing? Indic rulez"
, a remark that usually provokes very funny looks my way.