Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2011

[rohitvats]

Vic, true words.

[Joseph]

The Pakistani establishment would be foolish to confuse the US which has opened its purse strings and arsenal stores generously with a China that demanded action on Lal Masjid and pulled out from Gwadar.

I think that the Pakistani establishment is that foolish. Only the very top of the North Korean power structure has a normal life. If Pakistan aspires to become another satellite of China as North Korea currently is, then good luck to them. The North Koreans truly know about eating grass and could give some tips to the Pakistanis.

If Pakistan has to become the conduit for millions of tons of minerals and a conduit for Chinese exports this must happen. The problem is in Pakistan and the US and China cannot use Pakistan effectively unless Pakistan's internal instability can be quelled. Now we start going around in circles if we start asking why there is internal instability in Pakistan. I would suggest reading my e book if you have not already done that. The Chinese have openly stated in articles linked off BR that security is a problem in Pakistan. The US sees that on a day to day basis. But the US is also paying Pakistan on a day to day basis while China is counting its pennies and paying only on a case by case basis.

China seeks a safe conduit in Pakistan. For all its bluster and lies Pakistan is unable to provide a safe conduit. That is clear to the Chinese and the Americans, Yet the Americans persist in Pakistan - maintaining a strangle hold on Pakistan while China has played a peripheral game. If the US pulls out - Pakistan is not going to stabilize and suddenly have safe roadways and railways for China's goods - even if we assume that the US will allow things to happen that way.

If Kayani and the PA devote their time and effort to stabilizing things internally in Pakistan, then they won't be able to cause as many problems in Afghanistan and the threat & public venom against India will be lessened (somewhat).

The U.S. has a desire for stability and progress as the primary goal - objective. Pakistan has no desire to mesh its desires with that goal.


China has two primary goals - objectives for Pakistan.

1 To annoy India.

2. Have enough internal stability so they (Chinese) are able to conduct profitable business ventures such as Gwadar, massage parlors near Lal Masjid, act as a conduit for materials to China, etc.

Since the PA has tapped militants to fight India rather than do its themselves, it needs the Hafiz Saeed types to continue to bluster to recruit jihadis and cast India as the source of its problems. That activity destabilizes Pakistan and is sending the country backwards with no internal stability and thus unable to fulfill #2 of China's two primary objectives.

Have General Kayani and the PA realized that the achieving both goals at the same time is going to be very difficult for Pakistan? Has China realized that if Pakistan even makes attempts at trying to accomplish goal #2, then Pakistan will be much less effective at its job on goal #1?

[arun]

X Posted from the ISI News and Discussion thread.

Videotaped confirmation of the execution of a former uniformed Jihadi by Un-uniformed Jihadi’s.

TTP releases videotaped confirmation of the killing of former member of the ISI, Col. (Retd) Sultan Amir Tarar aka Col Imam.

Only fitting that an individual who fostered Islamic Terrorism met his end at the hands of Islamic Terrorists:

Taliban release video of killing of Col Imam

[abhishek_sharma]

These capability edge analyses are always done in subjective, opinionated terms...

I understand. When official reports contradict your claims, then they must be "subjective" and "opinionated". I can see the takleef.

In 1971, the edge was 1:1.7, now it is 1:1.1 - based on what? Isnt 1:3 an oft quoted superiority ratio for gaining victory? How did we then, win in 1971?

Some posters have already replied on these ratios. According to the book, these numbers come from Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence and Gen V P Malik. As posted before, the Kargil Review Committee also supports the conclusion.

Moreover, in 1971 the war was a draw on the western border. Remember?

The ratio was 1: 1.1 during Kargil, not now. Read more carefully.

Empirical evidence therefore never adds up as neatly as should be expected with such neat numerical "edge ratios"..

The chapter compares many features/parameters of Indian and Paki armies (e.g., Artillery, tanks, missiles, ...). You should probably go and read the book, okay?

Kargil: Jaswant Singh writes extensively about it in "Call to Honour".......There is no allusion to any conventional capability gap..In fact, the nuclear overhang and the world's reaction to it were the bigger issues to confront, according to him..Kaisar Tufail provides the most honest insider account from the Paki side...Even a limited air defence exercise rendered the F16 fleet out of effective action in quick time...A full scale war would have meant that the fleet wasnt availbale at all even quicker...Bharat Karnad has referred to the same point many time as well..And that was the tip of the Pak spear...We are to conclude yet that India's edge in 1998 was 1:1.2 or something?

Jaswant Singh was the foreign minister during Kargil, so it is expected that he was busy with his duties related to foreign policy. I have read the book written by Bharat Karnad and he was not very optimistic about the result of any Indo-Pak war. IIRC, he was very critical of the Indian Army that they are not prepared for the knockout punch. I guess we have read different books!

I am not surprised that India's edge was only 1: 1.1. Remember Gen V P Malik statement: "We will fight with whatever we have". His book has a whole chapter on it. You frequently ask others to "go to the library" and "read more", remember?

Parakram: Jaswant Singh again wites extensively on that...In his accounts, restraining the service chiefs from "having a crack" (his words) was one of his prime challenges!!! No allusion to any lack of confidence (in anyone in the system) about carrying out a conventional mandate, but lots of discussion on the nuclear overhang...

Given that the Parliament was attacked and many were killed in Kaluchak, it is not surprising that the army wanted to "have a crack". It does not say anything about the relative strengths of the armies. Did Jaswant Singh say that India had a decisive edge over Pakistan? If so, please post those relevant paragraphs.

In any case, I would think that the Vice Chief of Indian Army would have some knowledge of the military balance between India and Pakistan. Is that implausible?

Over the last 10 years, India has outspent Pak nearly 3:1 on defence (notwithstanding the source of funding)...We are yet to conclude that somehow our superiority gap in conventional terms is 1:1.1!?

You should not put words in my mouth. No one asked you to conclude anything about the superiority gap at this point of time. Okay? You wrote:

for everyone here who thinks that the extra two squadrons of F16s (or the extra 200 NVGs!) made a difference to India's strategic response calculus in 1998, 2001 or 2008 - well, I have nothing to say (balderdash, cop out et al)...The chaps who actually made policy durign those occasions dont articulate such reasons! Their concentration seems to be pretty focused on the nukes..."

My point is that at least some people who actually made policy (not all) were worried about conventional balance too in 1999 and 2001. Thats all.

It is foolhardy to underestimate the enemy..But thre should be a degree of realism as well, no?

It is foolhardy to whitewash the role of America while assessing the military balance between India and Pakistan. We all want good relations with all countries, but there should be a degree of realism as well, no?

[Muppalla]

X Posted from the ISI News and Discussion thread.

Videotaped confirmation of the execution of a former uniformed Jihadi by Un-uniformed Jihadi’s.

TTP releases videotaped confirmation of the killing of former member of the ISI, Col. (Retd) Sultan Amir Tarar aka Col Imam.

Only fitting that an individual who fostered Islamic Terrorism met his end at the hands of Islamic Terrorists:

Taliban release video of killing of Col Imam

The importance is to show that Hakimullah Mehsud is not dead in drone attacks. Brillaint show by ISI.

[arun]

X Posted from the Pakistan Nuclear Proliferation thread.

You can never say that the sense of entitlement of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan notwithstanding the years of proliferating nuclear weapon technology to some of the most irresponsible countries of the world , is anything less than fully developed .

President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari :

"If Japan is willing to cooperate with India in nuclear technology and (is) giving nuclear technology for peaceful purpose, I do not see any reason why we should not deserve the same.”

Read it all:

Pakistani leader seeks Japanese nuclear cooperation ahead of visit

[somnath]

I understand. When official reports contradict your claims, then they must be "subjective" and "opinionated".

Abhishek-ji, I have no intention of getting into a slanging match, so would keep this brief...

The jist of the matter is buried in your own post..

Moreover, in 1971 the war was a draw on the western border

Wars are fought on political objectives, translated into tacttical objectives broekn down at each subsequent level...In an Indo-Pak war, 1 million Indian armymen wont charge 600k Pakis in a headlong mughal-style battle..Therefore a macro edge ratio number has little relevance - what is relevant is whether there is enough "edge" to achieve political objectives...

Various posters have given enough reason/data on the validity of these numbers - so I would not repeat them...

One last point, given that both India and Pak import most of their equipment, expenditure is the most reliable proxy for war fighting capacities built...If you spend less time tryign to score a point and more on making one, you would have not said

No one asked you to conclude anything about the superiority gap at this point of time

Here is a tabulation of defence expenditure of India, Pak and China, 1970-2000..
http://www.policyarchitects.org/pdf/For ... istan2.pdf

Whichever 10-year period you take, India outspends Pak between 2 and 3 times...To conclude then that the edge is 1:1.1 or some number like that makes no sense, not from the perspective of political objectives..

I could go on and try to answer each point (BK's book, Jaswant Singh - (btw, he was a member of the CCS!), et al) - but really it would be besides the core point...

I said somewhere before, so you have concluded that America is satan, it is doing all sort of nasty things to India, incl arms sales to Pak...So? What next? Some more whining to them about the arms sales? And that is what is a "muscular, nationalist" strategy?!

[arun]

In the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the self proclaimed safe haven for the Mohammaddens of the Indian Sub-Continent, worlds first IEDological Muslim state and sole Islamic nuclear power, a member of the Muslim Sunni sect and Barelvi Sub-Sect attracts the predatory attentions of his fellow Muslim’s of the Sunni sect though of the Deobandi Sub-Sect.

Truly amazing that in a country that takes great pride is proclaiming its Muslimness, it is commonplace for one variant of Muslim to seek to exterminate another variant of Muslim for some arcane difference in the interpretation of Islamic ideology.

By some quirk of Lahori logic is this supposed to convince the rest of the world that Islam is a Religion of Peace?:

Pesh Imam gunned down in North Karachi

[arun]

X Posted from the Liberation of Oppressed Peoples Ruled by China and Pakistan thread.

Blows for freedom from the domination of Pakistan’s rapacious Punjabi’s struck in Balochistan:

Two more electricity pylons blown up in Balochistan

[A_Gupta]

With such a flawed set of "analyses" becoming more and more common - this forum is hardly the environment for serious debate.

Sad if that is the case.

----

Since India is say, 8 times Pakistan, economically speaking, even if Pakistan spends twice the %age of GDP that India does on defence, it would still be 4 times outspent, and so outsized. So it is counterintuitive that India's advantage has been less than that.

[A_Gupta]

I have a google alert for stories of "Pakistani arrested"

Today's crop includes the following:

VOA: Pakistan Re-Issues Arrest Warrant for Musharraf

Google: Pakistan spokeswoman resigns over US gunman

ISLAMABAD — The spokeswoman {Fauzia Wahab} for the ruling Pakistan People's Party resigned Saturday days after backing the claims of diplomatic immunity by a US gunman who killed two Pakistanis last month.

Pak Observer: Indian nukes vulnerable: located in the heart of naxalite zone

HT: Lahore Chief Justice directed police to take action against the driver of a speeding US consulate vehicle that killed a motorcyclist while rushing to aid American official Raymond Davis.

The News, PK: Why must Pakis be Pakis?

The Indians have an absolutely inflexible policy on earnings made in their country. You have to pay the prevailing taxes – even though they are as high as 30 to 35 percent of earnings. .....The terms are in black and white on legal paper and there is no getting away from them, provided you are scrupulous.....

The story goes that a leading Indian actor was given an envelope while he was about to board a plane from Lahore and opened it en route only to discover that the sum was astonishingly lower than what had been promised. Pakistani trick number 23 folks. ..

Business Week: A Hong Kong businessman who sent a hoax e-mail warning of a Pakistani terrorist bomb plot on a container ship that shut down a California port for 10 hours was sentenced Friday to a year in prison.

IBN: 26/11: Bombay HC's verdict on Kasab tomorrow

Google: Meherjaan: Movie hits raw nerve in Bangladesh

A Story of War and Love, which features some of south Asia's biggest stars including Victor Banerjee and Jaya Bachchan, wife of Indian movie legend Amitabh Bachchan, was released last month to critical acclaim.

But the plot, charting a romance between a local girl and a Pakistani soldier, has hit a raw nerve in Bangladesh, where a new war crimes tribunal has just begun prosecuting suspected collaborators.

Finally, a site called "Islamabad Globe" supposedly reported (am unable to reach the site): "CIA may shut up 'Davis' by killing him: Lahore jailers" Pakistan has never arrested an American mercenary before, so there is a learning curve. Islamabad has increased the security around the US national “Raymond Davis”. Fearing that the high-profile prisoner may be killed the Pakistani ...{that is all that I have}

[Johann]

Pakistan's threat to India is not new. So why would anyone ask how much it costs to arm Pakisatan to be a threat. The answer is so well known in India that the question itself sounds silly and irrelevant. But the question takes new relevance when a "cheaply armed Pakistan" starts becoming a threat to others apart from India. I am so happy that people are now asking a question that has already been answered in India a thousand times over. But India is irrelevant and I am glad it is irrelevant. Let the people who cheaply armed Pakistan calculate the cost.

I don't think the Chinese or the Saudis are worrying about the costs yet....

But let me put the same question I asked another way; how isolated does Pakistan have to be before it stops being a threat, whether to India or anyone else?

[A_Gupta]

The Islamabad Globe finally came up:
http://www.islamabadglobe.com/?p=31649

Fearing that Raymond Davis may be killed by the CIA:

“Davis’ visitors would now be allowed to interact with him from across a glass wall, as it happens in the West and the United States.

...According to officials a directive has been issued to strictly check the food provided to the American killer. Outside food will not be allowed to be given to the CIA mercenary. According to a new report “A food committee has been constituted, which would ensure that he is not provided poisoned food in the jail.”

...Surveillance cameras had also been installed zeroing in on Davis in the Kot Lakhpat Jail.

...It gets ridiculously funnier. ....

[CRamS]

It is foolhardy to whitewash the role of America while assessing the military balance between India and Pakistan. We all want good relations with all countries, but there should be a degree of realism as well, no?

No doubt about this. With even a tiny fraction of the support that US got post 9/11, Canadians even declaring sorry and weeping for all their criticism of US, had India some sympathy for the kind of horror India faces at the hands of TSP, I think we would have solved the TSP problem. When TSP Gboed post 9/11, the first disappointment I had was that TSP terror against India was outside GWOT. But to my horror or horrors, it got even worse. Today, US wants India to surrender to TSP terror tactcis so its so called GWOT can succeed. And not to beat up on a dead horse, the ultimate insult to India, is the installed CEO of "South Asia", the honorbale MMS, loyally executing what the board of directors in London and Washington decide on what is good for India, nah, "South Asia".

[abhishek_sharma]

Abhishek-ji, I have no intention of getting into a slanging match, so would keep this brief...

I have no intention of getting into a slanging match either. Unfortunately, they are pretty common here.

The jist of the matter is buried in your own post..

Moreover, in 1971 the war was a draw on the western border

Wars are fought on political objectives, translated into tacttical objectives broekn down at each subsequent level...In an Indo-Pak war, 1 million Indian armymen wont charge 600k Pakis in a headlong mughal-style battle..Therefore a macro edge ratio number has little relevance - what is relevant is whether there is enough "edge" to achieve political objectives...

It is not the gist of my post at all. The book states that even with a 1: 1.7 edge, we could dominate only East Pakistan, not the western part. It is not my opinion. It is Lt Gen Sood's analysis.

One last point, given that both India and Pak import most of their equipment, expenditure is the most reliable proxy for war fighting capacities built...

This is only true when the expenditure is used for buying better weapons or hiring more soldiers. In 2009, there was a 30% increase in defence budget but it was mostly spent on implementing the recommendations of 6th Pay commission (From Steve Cohen's book). Similarly, just before the Kargil War, the Indian Army reduced its strength by 50,000 because of lack of funds. The savings were used for better pay and modernization. So, while expenditure is a good indicator, we should be careful while using it. Higher salaries are welcome. But a 30% increase in salary will not improve the fighting capability by 30%.

If you spend less time tryign to prove a point and more on making one, you would have not said

No one asked you to conclude anything about the superiority gap at this point of time

Here is a tabulation of defence expenditure of India, Pak and China, 1970-2000..
http://www.policyarchitects.org/pdf/For ... istan2.pdf

Whichever 10-year period you take, India outspends Pak between 2 and 3 times...To conclude then that the edge is 1:1.1 or some number like that makes no sense, not from the perspective of political objectives..

You probably forgot that some Indian troops are facing China in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. It was explicitly mentioned that these numbers are for troops on our western borders (i.e., Pakistan).

The quote on "near parity" comes from Army Training Command(ARTAC). The citation is:

Headquarters , Army Training Command (1998), Fundamentals, Doctrine and Concepts: Indian Army, Shimla: Headquarters, Army Training Command, p 57

I do not have a copy of this report. If I get a copy, I will post here.

I could go on and try to answer each point (BK's book, Jaswant Singh - (btw, he was a member of the CCS!), et al) - but really it would be besides the core point...

I am glad you brought up Bharat Karnad's book. In his book, he criticizes that the Indian Army does not maintain enough spares for fighting a war for 2-3 months(which will be needed for completely defeating Pakistan). The Army has spares for only about 15 days. The Army prefers to spend its money on better weapons. It believes that political realities will not allow a war to continue for more than 2 weeks.

Regarding Jaswant Singh: During a war, no army will say they can't fight. It doesn't work that way.

He was also the defence minister. I will be very surprised if he can state that these issues were not brought up by the military leadership. If you have a quote regarding this issue, please post here.

I said somewhere before, so you have concluded that America is satan, it is doing all sort of nasty things to India, incl arms sales to Pak...So? What next? Some more whining to them about the arms sales? And that is what is a "muscular, nationalist" strategy?!

I did not say America is satan. Some posters are trying to whitewash America's role in Paki nuclear proliferation and other issues. I believe that refuting them is necessary for an honest discussion. Otherwise, we should go and write fiction.

A muscular nationalist strategy is indeed needed. It cannot be based on lies, untruths and prevarications. It is clear from the discussion here that some people are living in an alternate universe. Even stating an obvious fact requires 5-10 pages of analysis. I don't think Amartya Sen was talking about this type of "argumentative Indians". I have seen the fertile imagination of some posters in the J&K thread during the flag hoisting debate. And this is Bharat Rakshak Forum, where people are interested in strategic issues! Imagine what a mango SDRE believes! We can do better.

[A_Gupta]

Don't miss the Fourth Coujin's latest:
http://majorlyprofound.wordpress.com/20 ... siapart-i/

[A_Gupta]

http://blog.criticmagazine.pk/2011/02/d ... t-for.html

...The Pakistani authorities have informed the the media that they are very well aware that Mr. Davis was in touch with the “Pakistani Taliban” (TTP). ...

...Clearly, the Americans have panicked because they undestand that the Pakistani side knows much more than it is prepared to admit in public.....The panicked Americans have continually given highly contradictory versions about Mr. “Davis’s” identity and the nature of his assignment in Pakistan.

...There are clear indications that Mr. “Davis” has broken down after sustained interrogation in police custody, and has spilled his guts–making the Pakistanis aware of explosive stuff.

....It is very clear that Mr. “Davis’s” discovery and detention has sent alarm bells ringing all the way to President Obama’s White House. In a way the Pakistanis are amused. They know they have the Americans where they want them–right up against the wall.

...The Pakistani military and its highly efficient intelligence set-up had concluded a very long time ago that the TTP was being aided by the very sort of free-wheeling “contractors” that Mr. Davis represents. It was just a matter of time when things came to a boil. It is amazing that the Americans are surprised they have finally be caught red-handed.

Similar stuff, put with more sophistication:
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semp ... b-ali.html

[arun]

Khaled Ahmed in the Express Tribune:

“The lodestar of Pakistani hatred is India and is military-driven.”

From here:

Hating the hegemon

[VikramS]

shiv:

Interesting points. Some more thoughts.

1. I believe that if the US reduced its on the ground role and reduced the pressure on the uniformed TSPA to come after the non-uniformed element, the situation in TSP will improve. It is unclear where the TTP came from, but clearly the role of the uniformed TSPA in selling out had a role to play. If that pressure drops, chances are that the internal divisions will also reduce.

2. If it does reach a point that the Chinese depend on the TSP to ship raw-materials, a route from Karachi to POK can be made secure. Much of it is covered by their controlled access super-duper multi-purpose (for Fizzle Ya to land after their home airfields are blown up) road ways. It is quite clear that the NATO trucks are burnt as as part of a bigger strategy.

3. The Chinese are just waiting patiently. Right now they are making the beach-heads, and waiting for the right time to move in. The right time will be determined not only by the position of the other sugar-daddies but also their own needs. Right now very little of their expenditure is wasteful.

4. I agree with you that much of Chinese exports are low end. But thanks to the greed of Western capitalists, there are entire industries which no longer exist outside China. The same industrialists have tried to diversify but realized that no-one offers them the same cost and regulatory advantage as China. It was only the Chinese who would clear out centuries old townships, construct new factories and infrastructure, and corral in inexpensive labor from far and wide the ensure the low costs. So if the Chinese export machine stopped overnight, a significant chunk of Western industrial output will also grind to a halt. The relationship is too symbiotic, even in the low tech manufacturing level. Let us not go into the economic and geo-strategic aspect of things. Also the EU is China's biggest trading partner so it is not just the US.

5. Do not under-estimate what being the second larges economy in the world means. Further TSP is right next door to China and not half the way across the world. And if the G-2 reality continues then do not be surprised if the US gives in and cedes some space to China. There were subtle hints of this during the joint declarations. So even if the US is fearful of the Chinese ascent they are acutely aware of the reality and will accommodate the CCP if nothing else to keep their ship floating.

6. Even if the US (or the West) will prefer not to have CCP as a competitor the also know their limitations. India is no one's pet to just walk into the arms of the West to become the spear-head against the CCP; and without India's unqualified support to that cause there is little the West can do to contain the CCP. The warmth emanating during the last decade is perhaps an indication of that change in the perception of India's role. However, India shows very little assertiveness to give others the confidence that it can actually act as a bulwark against the CCP's expanding power. This of course is from the Western POV; but it is something India needs to understand.

7. And unlike Western involvement in TSP, Chinese involvement might be much more broad-based; so the prism by which you can view the TSP-sugar-daddy relationship has to evolve. With the West it was essentially the RAPE/TSPA/Elite taking the money and then doing their bidding. With the CCP there will be real boots on the ground, simply because the TSP is contiguous to China and can become the natural extension of their physical sphere of influence. Those soldiers building tunnels, the massage parlors and the Dr. Chus Lynd clinics are perhaps an indication that the relationship will be different.

Even at the peak of the cooperation, the Western participation with the TSP was limited to massive CIA deployment. However with the CCP the involvement will have significant economic component. Do not be surprised if the CCP starts setting up factories in the TSP to do the lower end less value add work or tasks which greater environmental impact. The CCP is after all running out of cheap labor and canon fodder is abundant in the TSP.

You might argue that the TSP is so unstable that no one would invest in it. However, for the CCP it is worth taking the risk. With very little commitment and what you call wasteful expenditure, they can actually start making a difference on the ground, while strengthening their grip in the region. Instability has a tendency to disappear when real productive jobs come in.

The best part for the CCP is that they do not have to diffuse the Jehadi fervor whether it is against India or the West to be successful in among the Abduls. At their core, both Islamism and Communism are very similar ideologies, especially when it comes to the treatment of the non-believers.

8. Until now the perspective of TSP is always guided by the three As. However if one of the As is forced to fade in the background, the dynamics can change dramatically. So the prism too has to change.

[abhijitm]

Oh! This is turning out to be a Bollywood blockbuster. Time to grab a popcorn?

What popcorn partha-ji.

Chor chor mausere bhai.

Won't be long before everyone kisses and makes up.

unless some Qadri dispatches Mr. Rambo to meet Mr. Peter.

[Gagan]

WRT '71
What was India's aim for going to war?
On the eastern front, India's aims were clear - Liberation of Bangladesh.
What was the aim on the western front? I don't think that retaking POK was ever stated as an aim.
I think it was mostly to hold off the west pakistani army at the borders.

Today, the Pakistani armed forces have been cut down to a little over half their size as in 71, the Indian army is much better equipped.

Ratios apart, how do you quantify morale of the fighting troops? If Kargil was any template to go by, Pakistani Army as a well oiled fighting force is not as good as it used to be. The common soldier is poorly equipped, rations are really rationed, supply lines are poor and not defended rigorously. The generals are mostly involved in securing the national loot for themselves than in actual military war fighting, planning etc. The only military matters that they indulge in is half-baked idiocy like Kargil. The top military leadership is doing the same things that they have done for ages - neck deep in pakistani politics. From Ayub to Yahya to Zia to Musharraf to Kiyani, they are screwing the pakistani nation 24x7. How effieciently have / will these guys conduct a major war with an overpowering adversary?

I don't think that the Pakistani army leadership has the stomach for a war with India. India's sanity and tolerance has been gamed by them, they profit from bleeding india, and so they do it.
Their acquisition of Nuclear weapons or their sponsoring or terrorism are reflections of the fact that they don't dare fight an all out war with India.

End of the matter, my do naya paisa onlee.

[Gagan]

When Pakistanis say that they are afraid that someone will assassinate Raymond Davis, it tells us something:
1. They are negotiating something with the US and the US is not agreeing. The Pakistanis are trying to set a timeline to this and saying that time is running out to try and force the US to agree.

2. They are once again negotiating with the gun pointed to their own head. They are trying to profit from the detestable image of a Jihadi society hell bent on murder, that they have created. They are trying to pander to the west's worst fears about them - that these abduls are mad rabid mullahs onlee, Raymond Davis had better be extricated from Pakistan on the double or these madmen will murder him on camera on youtube.

The US has already made peace with all the families of the people killed as a result of the arrest of RD. Green cards and greenbacks have been issued to the family members.

Question is, what is Pakistan/Kiyani asking for from the US for releasing Davis?

[abhik]

...
Today, the Pakistani armed forces have been cut down to a little over half their size as in 71, the Indian army is much better equipped.
..

Actually their size has increased from about 380 thousand to about 550 now.

[sum]

The common soldier is poorly equipped, rations are really rationed, supply lines are poor and not defended rigorously.

Would think that this has drastically changed post 9/11( 18 B $$ of Baksheesh) and even cursory images of TSPA soldiers show them very, very well equipped with US style camo jackets and firearms...

[Suppiah]

When Pakistanis say that they are afraid that someone will assassinate Raymond Davis, it tells us something:

The US has already made peace with all the families of the people killed as a result of the arrest of RD. Green cards and greenbacks have been issued to the family members.

You mean yet another avenue has opened up for the pure to get visa/gc?

[Mahendra]

Former ISI Colonel Imam’s body found

[Mahendra]

Our stability helps global interests: Pakistan

[SSridhar]

Our stability helps global interests: Pakistan

From the above,

“It is Pakistan’s considered view that stability, peace and development in the South Asian region is not only important for Pakistan but has global ramifications,”

This is the most direct threat that the Prime Minister of a nation could conceivably issue.

[abhishek_sharma]

Diplomatic duplicity: BY C. CHRISTINE FAIR

http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/20 ... _duplicity

In some sense, the Pakistani public has made Davis a public catharsis. He is not the first individual to push the envelope of transparency, much less the legal status of diplomatic immunity. Last summer while I was in Pakistan, a U.S. embassy employee crushed a Pakistani citizen to death in his vehicle. It was reportedly the third such incident over week. In 2009, an allegedly drunk U.S. diplomat, ignored a red light and careened his Prado jeep (LG-1) into a fire-brigade vehicle, causing Rs 2.5 million loss (some $29,000) in damages.

Pakistani author and analyst, Ahmed Rashid, recently noted the "extraordinary cooperation" between the army and justices in recent years. Rashid also observed that the courts are less inclined to pursue the army's alleged human-rights violations. In contrast, cases that undermine and weaken the government occupy prime time at the bench. If the army has some influence behind the courts, the fate of Raymond Davis is ambiguous at best given the Pakistani Army's fraught views towards Washington and its intelligence agencies.

[Narad]

Our stability helps global interests: Pakistan

Well of course!! You are a "global" whore, least to say.

[Ambar]

Sunday gupshup and some Lawhore-i logic :

On the other hand, Indian authorities have claimed that Mr Khan was screened on the basis of a tip received from their Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) that was based on calls intercepted from his phone.

This information, which was revealed to the media by a senior Indian official, raises serious concerns about the privacy of tourists on India territory. If the personal cellphone of a person of Rahat Fateh Ali Khan’s stature can be tapped by the Indian authorities, then the common man visiting India has no privacy whatsoever.

This also raises the questions of who authorised this move by the DRI and what the basis of such an action was. Pakistani authorities were not taken into confidence by India before tapping his phone calls and thus transgressing his right to privacy, a question that has not been raised in the media yet. Rather than just sensationalising issues to keep its ratings high, the media needs to recognise its powers as a tool for social justice and harness them by examining all sides of an issue.

special-treatment-to-Poakis

[Brad Goodman]

Former ISI Colonel Imam’s body found

MIR ALI: Former ISI official Sultan Amir Tara alias Colonel Imam’s body was found in an area in Karam Kot near Mir Ali.

According to sources, it was confirmed that Col.Imam’s body had been found on the corner of a street near Mir Ali in North Waziristan. Tehreek-e-Taliban has claimed responsibility for killing the former ISI official.

[Mahendra]

If the personal cellphone of a person of Rahat Fateh Ali Khan’s stature can be tapped by the Indian authorities, then the common man visiting India has no privacy whatsoever.

Yes, absolutely right. Please don't visit India.

BTW since when did the Pakistani common man start visiting India? On the other hand, the common Indian visits Pakistan almost every day depending on their bowel habits. Quite a lot of rural Indians who visit Pakistan have absolutely no privacy, I'm sure the good Hakim will agree with me on this topic.

[arun]

The News reporting on the contents of a talk by Ahmed Rashid:

“We don’t have regional allies. Arabs have had enough with Taliban and Afghanistan. China is close to us, but it’s aware of the religious extremist tendencies here which pose a serious threat to China due to its rebellious Muslim population. India can’t be a friend after what we’ve done in Kashmir. We’ve created an enormous sense of distrust among the Central Asian countries, thanks to our military policies.”

“Pakistan is still harbouring terrorism in the region as a national foreign policy tool. We should get rid of the militaristic approach towards Afghanistan. If we’ve interests over there, so do other regional countries. We are not their sole neighbour. So, we should abandon the idea of a so-called Pakistan-brokered peace in Afghanistan.”

Read it all:

Pakistan has no friends in region: Ahmed Rashid

[James B]

President, PM urge US to facilitate trade in Pakistan

President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani on Saturday called on the US to ensure a balanced approach in the South Asian region, particularly between Pakistan and India, and facilitate trade in Pakistan at a time when the country is going through the worst economic crisis.

They told a US Congressional delegation, led by Senator Robert Corker that separately called on them at the Presidency and Prime Minister’s House, respectively, that Pakistan needs preferential market access to support its economy against the adverse impacts of the struggle against militancy.

The prime minister said that at the advent of Obama administration, former President Bill Clinton was to be considered for appointment as special envoy to help resolve Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India, but the people of Pakistan were disappointed when this idea was dropped and Pakistan was instead clubbed with Afghanistan under the Af-Pak policy.

[SSridhar]

Diplomatic duplicity: BY C. CHRISTINE FAIR

Pakistani author and analyst, Ahmed Rashid, recently noted the "extraordinary cooperation" between the army and justices in recent years. Rashid also observed that the courts are less inclined to pursue the army's alleged human-rights violations. In contrast, cases that undermine and weaken the government occupy prime time at the bench. If the army has some influence behind the courts, the fate of Raymond Davis is ambiguous at best given the Pakistani Army's fraught views towards Washington and its intelligence agencies.

The underlined portion is very true indeed. CJP Iftikhar Chaudhry was pursuing the case of the 'missing persons' vigorously along with Pakistan Steel Mills case before he was summarily dismissed and sent home packing by Musharraf. After Iftikhar Chaudhry was restored due to the efforts of Nawaz Sharif and the PA against strong & spirited opposition from Zardari, the CJP has quietly toned down the 'missing persons' rhetoric. That case, if it had been taken to its logical conclusion, would have revealed the way the ISI operated within the country and the nexus between the ISI and the CIA. OTOH, several other things became very important, such as the National Reconciliation Ordinance, the erstwhile corruption cases, the 18th Amendment, the powers of the Government to appoint the Supreme Court/High Court judges etc. The Pakistani Supreme Court is no less culpable than the Lahore High Court in freeing Professor saheb.

[ManishH]

China has two primary goals - objectives for Pakistan.

1 To annoy India.

2. Have enough internal stability so they (Chinese) are able to conduct profitable business ventures such as Gwadar, massage parlors near Lal Masjid, act as a conduit for materials to China, etc.

...

Has China realized that if Pakistan even makes attempts at trying to accomplish goal #2, then Pakistan will be much less effective at its job on goal #1?

I agree about the goals, but disagree that they are conflicting. The set
of rats Pak uses to achieve goal #1 is different from the set of rats
who are usurping goal #2.

Ratpack #1 = Hafiz Saeed, Salahuddin (UJC)
Ratpack #2 = Taleban disgruntled about Pak Army siding with US (Hakimullah Mehsud, Haqqani)

Kayani knows Ratpack #1 doesen't destabilize Pak (eg. 1990- 9/11), and would like to eliminate ratpack #2. He has been able to prevent the two ratpacks from collaborating because Ratpack#1 will never be betrayed and
it cannot survive a day without Kayani's crumbs. The two ratpacks never
shared the same training camps (sorry ratholes), nor speak the same
language, so there's not much bonding between them.

Unfortunately, GoI hasn't made a very good use of Ratpack #2 - ideally
I'd love to see a corps commander rebel against Kayani on the
side of Ratpack #2.

[James B]

Zafar Hila-le on SMQs stage performance

"Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s performance at his press conference on February 16 deserved a curtain call. His vocation should have been the stage, rather than politics. The affected manner, the dramatic pauses, the contrived humility, letting his expression suggest what words cannot, the fact that he did not actually cry while he made his audience think that he was crying were all expressions of that neurotic impulse that actors develop for the stage. Perhaps if Qureshi really wants to be taken seriously, he should quit acting because that would be a sign of maturity.

By exaggerating achievements of his nondescript and relatively brief tenure as foreign minister and laying on self-praise with a trowel, the impression he gave was exactly the opposite of what he intended. It made him sound much like a mother who talks about her own children. Or, better still, (SMQ is) like the fly that sat on the axle wheel of the Roman chariot and said ‘see what dust I raise’.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/120967/the- ... d-qureshi/

oh..btw ths was the performance that Mr. Hila-le is talking about

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6h5Zp6jn ... r_embedded

[somnath]

Abhishek-ji,

Just a couple of points, especially on the question of parity..

1. Defence expenditure - It is a good proxy for capacities - because finally thats what matters...In WWII, Germany finally lost because it could not outspend the US! If India raises salaries for its soldiers, doesnt Pak as well? If anything, the perks and privileges of military office in Pak should be greater...For a 10 year period, these things balance out...Steve Cohen is a good analyst, but soemtime he really goes over the top...30% increase in the defence budget was ALL spent on PC recos?! Out of a defence budget of nearly 1 lac crore, salaries and pensions would account for about 30k...A 30% increase in salaries would only account for a 9-10% of the increase in the total budget...

2. It is important to note what the political objectives are, and dovetail military capability according to that...The "edge" is a function of that....the objectives on the China front had a certain military posture - triggered mostly by the troop-reduction pact enetered into by PVNR in 1993 (?)...Now that the govt has decided to present a more robust posture, the "edge" there is being recalibrated - ORBAT had an interesting article on that recently..BK feels that India should be building war wastage reserves for a 2-3 month war...Now that is a POV...Obviously the politiccal leadership does not think that a 2-3 month war is plausible, and I tend to agree as well..the world will not allow a lengthy war of that sort between 2 nuke armed countries...

3. One of the weaknesses of the Indian system is inadequate institutional mechanism of identifying and communicating political objectives and capacity building...It was one of the points made by the KRC..But at the apex level, somehow things "work themselves out" (an ex-COAS had made that comment in a lecture in my uni, a few months after Kargil)...Since I mentioned KRC, a point about the recos made by the KRC...It made tons of observations, identified lots of gaps...But a major gap in conventional force levels wasnt one of them...It made some general comments on delays in modernisation, and in fact only identified light infantry mountain warfare as the priority area gap! Nothing on any major gaps in prosecuting a conventional war against Pak! Tells you something....




There have been some allusions, primarily by Shiv, on the fact that China is not as potent a variable as is being feared...If anything, the China factor is perhaps the biggest elephant in the room..china's progress on every single index of national progress and power has been astonishing...From poverty alleviation to military....It is NOT a low value-added economy...It is a relatively inefficeint user of resources (of all types), but in sophistication of final products, it is rapidly climbing the ladder......If anyone here comes from a manufacturing background, he should be able to acknowledge that...And it has insurance on its exports by holding the credit strings of the biggest consumer in the world

From 1990 to 9/11, Pak had a free run in Af...If/when the US calls it a day, they will again have the same free run..And with the US gone, they wont have to take any quarter-hearted measures agauinst the Talib-types - the TTP problem will be simoply obviated...This time, the Paki effort will be bankrolled by Chinese money, making it more formidable..With the US gone and Russia unwilling, China and Pak will have a walkover in the new great game...China is already making the first moves...It has started entering into "peace pacts' with the Islamist groups, and started making investments in Af (besides its already large investments in Central Asia)...

We saw the impact of a Paki proxy in Kabul in the '90s on India...A China-Pak proxy will be nightmare multiplied...So what are our options? Like it or not, most of them travel through Washington...An American presence in Af is the insurance of our presence in the region...Without an American pressure continnuously on Pak, there is no single way we can keep presence in Af and influence events...We could be sponsoring a guerilla movement, like what we did with Masood in the '90s, but in strategic terms, it is puny...

America itself realises that it will be leaving the field open for China if it simply cut and run....But american presence in Af currently is predicated hugely on Paki cooperation...there are options to be examined on weakening that stranglehold - I mentioend the Iran/Chabahaar equation earlier...There are others...the US itself is examining alternative supply routes via Central Asia...Are there opportunities of working with Russia to develop those, not for the US only, but to examine whether we can put boots on the ground...Are there opportunities in buying out the so-called "good Taliban"?

The agenda is vast, and the worst case scenario is that of a China-Pak axis....A few more F16s to Pak is too small a variable in the equation...

[shiv]

2. If it does reach a point that the Chinese depend on the TSP to ship raw-materials, a route from Karachi to POK can be made secure. Much of it is covered by their controlled access super-duper multi-purpose (for Fizzle Ya to land after their home airfields are blown up) road ways. It is quite clear that the NATO trucks are burnt as as part of a bigger strategy.

No Vikram. I believe you are stating this possibility like a Tom Clancy novel. The roads are god but its the peoplewho live along the roads that matter. Transport in Pakistan can be upset by a series of insurgents that make transport unreliable, not impossible. I believe you have not read any Chinese views on this, The next time I find reports I will point them out here. Chinese assessments are very careful about reliability and cost. The money flows as the goods flow and the Chinese do not work like Pakis, or even Indians

Also the EU is China's biggest trading partner so it is not just the US.

The overland route is cheaper and more reliable. The Chinese are building railways

5. Do not under-estimate what being the second larges economy in the world means. Further TSP is right next door to China and not half the way across the world. And if the G-2 reality continues then do not be surprised if the US gives in and cedes some space to China. There were subtle hints of this during the joint declarations. So even if the US is fearful of the Chinese ascent they are acutely aware of the reality and will accommodate the CCP if nothing else to keep their ship floating.

Vikram. Please.Pakistan is the problem, not the space occupied or ceded by the US and China. Even if the US "cedes" space Pakistan in my view has no way of becoming stable due to fundamental considerations that are not being looked at a at all while we speak of the US and China

6. Even if the US (or the West) will prefer not to have CCP as a competitor the also know their limitations. India is no one's pet to just walk into the arms of the West to become the spear-head against the CCP; and without India's unqualified support to that cause there is little the West can do to contain the CCP. The warmth emanating during the last decade is perhaps an indication of that change in the perception of India's role. However, India shows very little assertiveness to give others the confidence that it can actually act as a bulwark against the CCP's expanding power. This of course is from the Western POV; but it is something India needs to understand.

Woefully incomplete analyses of India's role are meaningless. If we are talking Pakistan a much more comprehensive effort has to be put into India's impact. Very few people do that on BR which is too consumed with anger, shame and ignorance. Too many so called "analyses" consist of "cliches" with no effort to look beyond those cliches and too much effort is spent defending those cliches. One such cliche has been used by you earlier when you said "Do not underestimate the impact of the second largest economy". With respect that sentence shifts the discussion from opinion and analysis of the topic to a needles warning from you to me that I might be thinking something that I should not think. Any further discussion along these lines is a complete waste of time.

And unlike Western involvement in TSP, Chinese involvement might be much more broad-based; so the prism by which you can view the TSP-sugar-daddy relationship has to evolve. With the West it was essentially the RAPE/TSPA/Elite taking the money and then doing their bidding. With the CCP there will be real boots on the ground, simply because the TSP is contiguous to China and can become the natural extension of their physical sphere of influence. Those soldiers building tunnels, the massage parlors and the Dr. Chus Lynd clinics are perhaps an indication that the relationship will be different.

Anything is possible on this earth. But again this is a very very superficial analysis with absolutely no in depth examination of the nature of boots on the ground and how they plan to interact with 160 million SDRE Pakistanis. Sorry, but this is yet another paragraph that says, in different words "Do not underestimate the effect of boots on the ground".

Even at the peak of the cooperation, the Western participation with the TSP was limited to massive CIA deployment. However with the CCP the involvement will have significant economic component. Do not be surprised if the CCP starts setting up factories in the TSP to do the lower end less value add work or tasks which greater environmental impact. The CCP is after all running out of cheap labor and canon fodder is abundant in the TSP.

Sir - I am not sure why you persistently sideline hard headed analysis to meaningless statemts like "Do not be surprised if..etc etc". I am surprised only at your complete lack of any analysis of what it takes to set up a factory in Pakistan and no reference to the Pakistan experience of all the of Western companies - for example German surgical equipment companies who have worked in Pakistan for decades and what they find now. I think you are deeply ignorant of what the labor scene is like in Pakistan and the experience of expatriates (of which dozens of references have appeared linked off these pages) and are merely saying things off the top of your head.

You might argue that the TSP is so unstable that no one would invest in it. However, for the CCP it is worth taking the risk. With very little commitment and what you call wasteful expenditure, they can actually start making a difference on the ground, while strengthening their grip in the region. Instability has a tendency to disappear when real productive jobs come in.

Sir you are making predictions with no serious attempt at asking why others have failed and I think I am wasting my time. It is easier for me to say "OK Boss - you must be right"

The best part for the CCP is that they do not have to diffuse the Jehadi fervor whether it is against India or the West to be successful in among the Abduls. At their core, both Islamism and Communism are very similar ideologies, especially when it comes to the treatment of the non-believers.

You are not wrong but I put it to you that you have not thought this thing through fully. You are highlighting the greatness of the two systems and why you believe they will work and make no attempt as asking why Islamism has not worked to make Pakistan an economic powerhouse and why a "similar system" communism will suddenly start working in Pakistan. As an academic exercise your analysis would not stand.