VikramS wrote:
A trade corridor built right along the Indus is not the same FATA/NWFP/Balochistan where the writ of TSP(A) exists in name only. Take a map and plot where the attacks on transportation infrastructure occur. FWIW the heartland along the Indus is fairly secure by TSP standards. Acess controlled highways, by their very nature are significantly isolated from the people who live along them.
The planned trade corridor is actually along the Indus and goes down South to skirt Karachi. It then heads east to Gwadar. Karachi is seen as too unstable and too close to India to be a safe port. Apart from that ships from the Gulf have to sail much further from the Gulf to reach Karachi. That is why Gwadar was considered a safer bet.
But as things stand, Gwadar was too insecure for Chinese expatriates to live and build projects there and it ws unprofitable to boot. The Chinese pulled out and the contract was awarded to a Singapore firm. Now some Pakistanis want the contract to be awarded back to the Chinese but I am not seeing the Chinese jump in with alacrity.
In the meantime the railways and roadways to connect China to Gwadar are either in a state of disrepair or incomplete.
One can expect China to execute those projects quickly and efficiently up to the Pakistan border. In the Himalayas there is a geographical problem of unstable passes that are frequently blocked by landslides. This might be an engineering issue that can be solved in the next 10-15 years.
The infrastructure that China requires for transport through Pakistan could be built by China in (my estimate) 5 years. If they started in 2011 it would be ready in 2017 - but the Himalayan part would not be ready. Gwadar could probably be readied in 3 years. But in my view the land route via Pakistan cannot start working with full efficiency till 2020 at the earliest mainly because of the geographical choke point in the Himalayas.
But all these estimates are based on work starting in 2011 and proceeding unhindered. China has the money and manpower, but China requires the Pakistani army/local Pakistani governments to provide security to the Chinese workforce who will require housing, a decent lifestyle for families of workers and engineers for period of 2-3 years at a time. Pakistan has not been able to do that. In theory China could put the PLA in Pakistan. Two problems there. That can't happen until the US pulls out. Secondly the PLA wil have to provide the security that the Pakistan army is unable to provide. If they face a security issue and use force that kills Pakistanis locally - it becomes a political issue that will delay things at best - but might stop everything at worst. That means uncertainty.
One can assume that China will put in any amount of money and any number of men, but I do not see that giving them any guarantees on the time that it will take to complete the corridor. My best estimate would be 2020 if work starts today and 2030 or beyond with delays.
In the final analysis I believe that it is not Chinese money or willpower but local factors on the ground in Pakistan that are the biggest hurdle. From an Indian viewpoint I want those local factors on the ground to be as hostile to China as possible. It is pretty hostile as things stand.
The local situation on the ground in Pakistan is hostile to America. One can theorize that the local situation on the ground will magically become friendly to Chinese workers if the US goes and is replaced by China. There are two confounding factors here. One is that the Chinese experience so far has not been good. Secondly. the "local factors" that make things difficult for the Americans are an effort by local groups like Pashtuns and Baluchis to control their own territory against the efforts of the Pakistan army and the Americans. If the Americans move out the Pakistan army will still have to do that job and I can't see how those groups would become friendly to China which would also act in coordination with the Pakistan army, just like the US.
So what can improve the "local situation on the ground" in Pakistan and make it friendly to the construction of major infrastructure projects to help China? Does India have a role at all? A whole lot of analyses from America say that the local situation on the ground in Pakistan can improve only if India-Pakistan relations can be normalized. Pakis are telling Americans that those relations cannot be normalized until the Kashmir issue is "solved". The Americans are therefore pressing India and Pakistan to "normalize relations" so that the local situation on the ground in Pakistan can get better for them. A stable Pakistan of course will help China too. It is therefore in India's interest not to cooperate with the US in stabilizing Pakistan especially if it means concessions to Pakistan. Pakistan must continue to be unstable as long as a stable Pakistan is against Indian interests. That is why I sound hostile to people who speak as if the American role in Pakistan is benign and positive.
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