West Asia News and Discussions

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Feb 2011 13:35

Arabs are more 'true-to-nature' as they haven't had to suffer any major upheavels in their environement from opposing religious idelogies for any relatively lengthy period of time, which could have made them ideologically defensive. They would not have to pretend to be 'holier-than-thou' to prove their religious credentials as poaks are so accustomed to, IOW they can be themselves while being religious, no need for any pretend philosophies. Then there is the regional variation amongst them that shyamd is speaking about.

Poaks are indic inside and use inbuilt arab translator to behave arabically. This makes them defensive, pretentious & insecurity-led aggresive most of the time. Arabs live without these dichotomies.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2011 14:07

in a qadhafi video probably in their parliament I spotted a attractive woman official in the background wearing a office jacket and smart form fitting pants and boots. not sure if its one of his bunga bunga girls or just indicates women are freer in north africa / libya than in the repressed gulf shiekhdoms.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2011 14:17

a lot of arab kids got a govt subsidized or sponsored foreign education in the 70s and thereafter. some came back and some became diaspora but all got used to freedoms taken for granted in bangalore, bihar or boston.

high unemployment and lack of growth and new sectors limiting prospects for people to move up probably has something to do with the seething anger and scorn for the 'insiders' and ruling elites.

must say I am pleasantly surprised that arabs and north africans can see the world through lens of roti, kapda, makan also rather than waste their time burning american flags, stoning effigies of the kafir dogs and generally doing the anti israel war dance. as the high tech leader in the region, israel could be a good source to jumpstart some higher value industries in the region if relations normalize.

Venkarl · Post by **Venkarl** » 22 Feb 2011 14:17

Gaddafi's daughter herself is a qualified mohtarma....women of elite families in Libya are western {atleast}

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Feb 2011 14:21

it is stage II of marxist revolution, i.e. middle classes against the 'monarchy'
everything is in order
in stage III the people (here read islamists) take over

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 22 Feb 2011 14:25

Vikas: Women Are a Substantial Part of Egyptian Protests

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 22 Feb 2011 14:46

Libya Uses war-planes/fighters to bomb protesters

From NY-Times

If this is true, then is this getting out of hand.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Feb 2011 15:26

our good colonel has an elite private bodyguard comprised only of TFTA motorhams
he is not so different from berluscuddin
incidentally libya and italy share a lot of history - from rome and carthage days down to mussolini and to now

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Feb 2011 17:12

About women in liberated North Africa, in Egypt there was a report of a "sympathetic" female journalist from the west being separated from her crew in the celebrating crowds and repeatedly sexually assaulted. Apparently some armymen and other women present in the crowds finally rescued her.

No, tastes have not changed that drastically. So the next phase, as I promised will be an attempt by the sitting back mullah-dom to come to mutually pleasing arrangements to take back control of power over the people - with the remaining faces of the power elite and the army that have not been needed to be sacrificed as formal faces of the regime.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2011 17:46

when spain was reconquered by the catholics, the people who had converted to islam in south spain and settlers from north africa were given the option to convert back into the fold or take up a sham scheme to resettle in north africa with the guaranteed right to return to spain after 10 yrs if they did not like it there.
so a lot of spanish stock people must be there in coastal region of morocco, tunisia and libya who later on mixed blood with the natives.

berloscuni is said to have got his bunga bunga orgy ideas from quadhafi...so the desert mahdi probably leads a colourful life...

also the phoenicians (modern israel and lebanon) had ancient settlements in today's morocco....quadhafi's daughter could pass off as a trendy girl from beirut or haifa

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Feb 2011 17:54

just a few months ago, col G was in Rome with big-B speaking to a large number of nubile italian babe-loge about the delights of a desert life in a public forum... received some media coverage

nice life this dictatorship business...

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Feb 2011 18:10

The Berbers were highly successful entrepreneurs in the enslavement business. The Ottoman and Arab dignitaries were especially keen to get blonde and TFTA female specimens and this egged the Berbers to frequently raid European coasts, especially the Irish, and northern Mediterranean coastal villages. TFTA boys would also be highly prized, but of course minus some of their appendages - so the male genes could not have passed on that much from the enslaved. That leaves definite possibility of more of the female kind surfacing in the current gene pool.

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 22 Feb 2011 18:26

Acharya wrote:
VikasRaina wrote:
PS: Did someone notice that there were lots of women on the street when protests erupted in Tehran but there aren't that many woman in Egyptian or Libyan protests.
That is the diff between the shia and sunni

Actually, I think that is the difference between Persian and Arab.

Arab Shia are just as ...shall we say....conservative - as their Arab Sunni counterparts...

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 22 Feb 2011 18:41

^^ Sunni's burka-ize wimmin. Shia Iran has women scientists and have benefited from education since the take over.

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 22 Feb 2011 19:08

Iran is modern (relatively), not because they are Shia, but despite it.

That's what I am saying.

Arab Shia ...don't they "burka-ize" women...in Oil Rich parts of KSA?

Key is the Persian Identity vs. the Arab tribal identity.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 22 Feb 2011 21:59

OT.. In fact except for selected few areas, most of the Muslim world has women behind Burka ranging from scarfs to shuttlecocks.
They may be teachers or nurses or a Journalist but hardly any public leader or leading a colored revolution standing atop a tank. No such images.
Add to it the issue of safety in Public places (Groper leading the possession with Sherry comes to mind), women probably would like stay indoor.
After all these revolutions, we will still not see any woman becoming the leader of Muslim country. The only exception ASFIK are countries where indic
civilization still lurks beneath the Islamic identity a la B'desh, TSP, Indonesia etc.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 22 Feb 2011 22:26

Libya's ambassador to India resigns amid crackdown

Ali al-Essawi met senior Indian foreign ministry officials and informed them of his decision to quit, the Indian Express daily reported, citing government sources.

The ambassador was outraged at the killings in Libya, particularly in his home city of Benghazi, the report said. Al-Essawi had also informed the Libyan government about his decision.

He was believed to be planning to to move to a third country, after telling Indian officials that he does not intend to return to Libya under the present circumstances, the report said.

AoA!

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 22 Feb 2011 22:37

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/2 ... 26532.html

"Our country will become Afghanistan, is that what you want?"

Wow. Afghanistan must have a very poor image in West Asia.

Also:

"What's come over you?" Gadhafi asks. "We were leaving in prosperity."

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Feb 2011 22:43

"Leaving in prosperity"?!!! BD expats have been kidnapped in Libya, and one who apparently managed to hide away was on phone to a channel saying that he tried to hide and stay behind because even in "peaceful times" Libyans with swords and machettes would invade the houses, and if no one was there cleaned the houses out. Such ghazwas could be a sign of confidence gained from prosperity though!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2011 22:59

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12535681

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Feb 2011 01:50

A few things.

A FOX News National Security Correspondent was shell shocked today saying how is it that all the US supported/friendly Arab regimes are collapsing? The ones standing are the regimes opposed by US.

I think there is something to Gwen Dyer's thesis that this collpase of Arab regimes is a fallout of the US quagmire in Iraq and the 2008 finanical meltdown.

To that I add its Obama as the US President. He is playing the same role that Gorbhchev played when the Warsaw pact regimes which were also dictatorships were collapsing. The forces underway are bigger than nations and individuals to control. One has to stept aside if one wants to survive the tide. Further he could not have intervened without imperial over reach.

Another as Acharya pointed out all these regimes are stalwarts of the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) which was setup after the 1965 war and most took anti-India stance in every instance and supported TSP. Yes there is sympathy for Mubarak regime due to Nasser's goodwill for India, but Mubarak was also bad for his people.

Libya in particular funded TSP nuke programs. So I see no sympathy for the regimes being swept away. Qaddafi in particular is a bad person. He was brutal dictator and terrorised his neighbors like Chad and funded Paki nukes. He now has killed his own people. No tears for this thug.

So all in all for India these changes are good eventually.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Feb 2011 02:01

As usual, FOX News is notable for its low quality.

Saudi Arabia and Jordan are still standing and they are American allies.

Libya with its Qaddafi is not and was not an American ally.

I think Yemen has a Pakistan-like relationship with the US.

Tunisia has good relations with the US and probably will continue to have. There didn't seem much in their revolution that was anti-US.

The future of Egypt is up in the air, I think.

(about Tunisia: from Oct 2010:

The United States has very good relations with Tunisia, which date back more than 200 years. The United States has maintained official representation in Tunis almost continuously since 1795, and the American Friendship Treaty with Tunisia was signed in 1799. The two governments are not linked by security treaties, but relations have been close since Tunisia's independence. U.S.-Tunisian relations suffered briefly after the 1985 Israeli raid on PLO headquarters in Tunis, after the 1988 Tunis assassination of PLO terrorist Abu Jihad, and in 1990 during the Gulf War. In each case, however, relations warmed again quickly, reflecting strong bilateral ties. The United States and Tunisia have an active schedule of joint military exercises. U.S. security assistance historically has played an important role in cementing relations. The U.S.-Tunisian Joint Military Commission meets annually to discuss military cooperation, Tunisia's defense modernization program, and other security matters.

)

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 23 Feb 2011 02:18

Ramana, No changes for India. In Libya's case, it will be to India's benefit, Libya should get close with the EU due to O&G - therefore India can build new relations, more export, oil exploration, cooperation etc etc. In egypt's case, it doesnt matter to India either way it went. Not sure what we could get from them anyway or they get from us apart from our trade.

Saddam was a bigger loss to us. Iraq was India's 3rd biggest trade partner at the time I believe and from the anecdotal information, Saddam was willing to help India in whatever way he could - especially in Counter terror.
---------------------------------------
Middle-East unrest forces Indian cos to rewrite plans

Indian companies with plans of setting up shop in the Middle-East have either postponed their plans or are looking to shift to a different location in the same region with a lower risk profile, say strategic business consultants.

Developments in Bahrain , in particular, need to be monitored as several Indian companies have invested in that country, they said. The real risk, however, will get aggravated if the crisis spreads to countries such as Saudi Arabia , Syria and the UAE.

Kalpana Jain, senior director at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India, said companies are increasingly revaluating their investment plans in the wake of the ongoing crisis. "We are keeping the political risk factor in mind while advising our clients. While some firms have put on hold some of their proposed investments, others are looking for alternate locations in the region that are safer," she added.

Trade between India and the Middle-East is set to take a hit in the short term. With widespread unrest in the region, Indian businesses face risks in terms of withdrawal of contract rights, reduced local market demand and loss of investor confidence, said Bharat Dhawan, partner at international consultancy firm Mazars.

"As advisors, we are making sure that our clients fully understand the implications that the ongoing risks could impact their bottom lines and even their processes and operations," he said.

Another set of risks come from possibilities of labour strikes, security concerns for expatriates and fluctuations in the value of the local currency. Investors are also cautious as going forward, there may be some changes in trade treaties, leading to restrictions on import and export.

The immediate impact is on firms who already have operations in the countries hardest hit by the unrest as they face the risk of financial loss. "Indian companies may face difficulty in terms of collection of money as companies there may delay delivery of goods and execution of projects," said Sunil Chandiramani, partner and national director (advisory services) at Ernst & Young.

But consultants are optimistic that the long-term business opportunity in the region remains intact as a movement towards a democratic political system will only improve prospects for Indian firms in the region.

"Even as there may be some impact in the short term due to growing security concerns for expatriate workers, long-term business prospects are looking up," said Suvojoy Sengupta, partner with Booz & Company and co-head of the India practice.

Better pay needed if UAE is to keep Indian workforce

Click here to find out more!
By Gavin Davids

* Tuesday, 22 February 2011 12:42 PM

Employers in the Gulf state will need to keep pace with wages in India, where salaries surged 11.1 percent last year

Employers in the Gulf state will need to keep pace with wages in India, where salaries surged 11.1 percent last year

The UAE will struggle to retain its huge Indian workforce if it fails to keep pace with rising salaries in Asia, the head of a Dubai-based Indian Business & Professional Council has said.

Employers in the Gulf state will need to keep pace with wages in India, where salaries surged 11.1 percent last year on rising economic strength, to retain talent, said Paras Shahdadpuri.

Minimum wages for unskilled foreign workers in the UAE are as low as AED600 a month, with skilled workers receiving AED1,200 a month, according to the Indian Embassy, Abu Dhabi.

“I think this a very good move honestly. I think people are paid very low. AED600, tell me, is that really fair?” said Shahdadpuri, who is also chairman of electronics firm Nikai Corporation.

“I think it’s extremely low and that’s why productivity is less and that’s the reason good quality workers will not come abroad. They’re making better money in India and they can spend time with their families and live there.”

The Indian Ambassador to the UAE was reported as saying the government plans to enforce a minimum wage for Indian nationals hoping to work in the UAE.

If approved, the ruling will mean workers only receive immigration clearance from India if their employment contract meets with a set minimum wage.

Gulf employers are already learning to compete with India’s economic growth. A survey by GulfTalent earlier this month showed Asian professionals in the Gulf saw a 6.1 percent jump in their pay packets last year, compared to just 3.2 percent for Western professionals.

Shahdadpuri said wages must improve if the UAE is to continue to attract expatriates.

“If we continue to give foreign workers the same wages that they were being given in previous years, you may not get quality employees here,” he said.

“You’ll get trash that is not good for the name of India and not good for this country to import. If you want quality employees, you need to fall in line with what’s available in India and you need to better that income for them.”

Enforcement of a realistic minimum wage for foreign workers would go some way towards cutting down employment disputes, he added.

“They [the UAE government] would like to see a worker who is not exploited, who is paid according to his agreement. There’ll be less labour disputes, less headaches and lesser court cases. It is in the interest of the UAE government that employers abide by the [proposed] law.”

India-Saudi Arabia JBC meeting today

Notwithstanding the current political turmoil engulfing the Arab region, Abdulrahman Al-Rabiah, chairman, Council of Saudi Chambers, is leading a high-powered business delegation to India to participate in the India-Saudi JBC.

“A large delegation of 40 businessmen are visiting India seeking to strengthen their relations with Indian companies. At the India-Saudi JBC, organised by Ficci on February 23, there will be business-to-business meetings between Saudi delegation and Indian companies,” Saudi Ambassador to India Faisal H Trad told FE.

While trade remains the major focus between the two countries, Trad said there was an encouraging trend of investment flow between the two countries.

“We do not want only Indian investment in Saudi Arabia but also want to ensure reverse flow of investment. More importantly, we want Saudi investment in India to multiply in all sectors whether industry, mining or energy.”

According to Ficci officials, Saudi Arabia has identified several sectors for cooperation including power, technical training especially in oil and gas. Sectors like infrastructure, petrochemicals, power generation, water desalinations, tourism and IT have also been identified.

“Saudi Arabia has and will remain very important to India’s long-term business interests in the region. Apart from meeting 20-25% of India’s energy needs, the country is not only home to a large Indian expat community, but is also one of the largest contributor in terms of foreign remittances back to India. The consistent and well-calibrated economic performance of India will only fuel the encouraging trends in the years to come, “ Ficci secretary-general Amit Mitra told FE.

India is Saudi Arabia’s fourth largest trading partner and sources about 26% of its total crude oil requirement from the kingdom. Both the countries are exploring opportunities for collaboration in the oil and petrochemical sector.

India-Saudi Arabia bilateral trade increased to $21 billion in 2009-10 from $3.44 billion in 2005-06.

India’s exports to Saudi Arabia increased to $3.90 billion in 2009-10 from $1.80 billion in 2005-06.

Major items of Indian exports to Saudi Arabia are petroleum products, basmati rice, non-ferrous metals, machinery and instruments, dyes/intermediary and coal tar chemicals.

On increased demand and prices of petroleum products, India’s imports from Saudi Arabia surged to $17.09 billion in 2009-10 from $1.63 billion in 2005-06. Main items of imports are petroleum products, organic chemicals, artificial resin, plastic and materials.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Feb 2011 03:40

Pioneer has lots of updates on Libya:
1) Tripoli streets littered with dead

2)Tide turns in Libya

by Manvendra Singh

Tide turns in Libya

February 23, 2011

Manvendra Singh

Faced with a popular revolt against his autocratic rule, Muammar Gaddafi has responded with blazing guns. But that won’t help him retain power.

Hosni Mubarak was despised in Egypt for his authoritarian rule as well as being a ‘stooge’ of the United States. The popular pedestrian perception of Mr Mubarak was that of an American agent, as desperate a curse as can be in this part of the world. Not unlike the 1970s and 1980s charges and counter-charges in India about being a CIA or a KGB agent. So it was with Mr Mubarak, accused of having sold his soul to the Americans. But that was the impression from the very beginning and it was the tipping point of the popular revolt that ultimately removed him from office. Not some ‘foreign pressure’ or outside forces.

Which is what Mr Sayf al-Islam Gaddafi would have the world believe is happening in Libya. In one of the most bizarre public speeches in the Arab world, albeit televised, the younger Gaddafi declared that foreign agents were out to destabilise his father, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, from his perch as the longest ruling Arab head of Government. And that in this civil war his side would fight to the last round, which in his language means bullets and not some run-off in an election.

Mr Sayf Gaddafi was cocky and he was desperate. But he had a message for the people of his country and those outside. Unlike the Egyptians who implied through nervous Western columnists that the Muslim Brotherhood would gain power if Mr Mubarak were to be toppled, he was explicit in his declaration that Islamists were out to create a civil war in his country. It was his way of telling the suddenly-very-democracy-concerned West that what stands between the chaos of radical Islam and order is the Gaddafi regime, so back off from instigating a Twitter revolution. Good idea, but not cleverly done.

{I think his LSE education was veneer to cloak his tribal barbarity.The LSE education couldn't change him!!}

Unlike Mr Mubarak, the revolutionary credentials of Col Muammar Gaddafi are intact — or were intact. A friend of the Irish Republican Army, splinter groups of the Palestinians, to South African radicals, and now Mr Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Col Gaddafi has been the champion of Third World revolution. He does not have the stain of being an American stooge.

{Yes he is sold out stooge. In return for being allowed to stay in power he did confess to the AQK proliferation etc.}

Col Gaddafi sold himself as the modern day Omar Mukhtar, the great Senussi hero of Libya and the first Arab to achieve guerrilla stardom. He tried to pose as the successor to Omar Mukhtar, the Lion of the Desert, even funding the Hollywood movie by that name. Yet, today he is on the verge of losing power. The violence against the protesters has reached the tipping point of the Libyan revolution. And Mr Sayf Gaddafi’s remark about an impending civil war was perceptive for there are signs of serious things happening in that north African country.

Libya has been in a bind ever since the Italians decided to demonstrate colonial capabilities and administratively unite Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan into a new country and named it after the loose generic Greek name for all of north Africa. But Libya is not like the other three north African countries — it is sociologically and politically on a very different plane than its western neighbours. And so has been its response to the demonstrations. The violence unleashed against protesters is unlike any seen in an Arab country. Not even tiny Bahrain has inflicted the kind of attacks that the Libyan security forces have meted out against the civilian population. And the tale has only just begun.

Reports from Benghazi suggest the use of heavy weaponry and extensive gunfire. And there are reports of gunfire exchanged in parts of Tripoli as well. When gunfire is exchanged it obviously means both parties are armed and willing to let lead fly against the other. Which only adds to the suggestions that Army units or even police units are changing sides.

Benghazi is where it all began and that is where the Army is supposed to have switched sides. Benghazi, Tobruk, El Alamein are the areas that were critical to Allied successes during World War II. A stalemate in Europe compelled both sides to switch attention and it was the Libyan desert that provided the locale for some of the most vital history changing moments of the War.

This was after all where Umar Mukhtar came from, and this where the legendary German General Erwin Rommel met his Waterloo. The Indian First Armoured Division had a not insignificant role in that campaign. Benghazi is, thus, well placed in terms of history and inheritance to be the launching pad of the Libyan revolt of 2011. And it is a revolt that is being watched with great interest. Unlike Egypt or Tunisia, Libya has a significant role in the global oil trade.

Disruptions in Libya, which are being threatened, have the potential to once again make the oil trade spin out of control. Sheikh Faraj al Zuway of the large Al-Zuwayya tribe has threatened the disruption of oil supplies if the authorities do not stop the “oppression of protesters”. The Al-Zuwayya tribe lives south of Benghazi and is vital to maintaining any semblance of order in that area. Benghazi, then, is a bit like what Tabriz in 1978 was to the Iranian Revolution.

The tide has turned and the endgame has begun for Col Gaddafi. His departure is a certainty; the question of duration is entirely dependent on the levels of violence he or his son are willing to inflict on the people of Libya. Akram Al-Warfalli, a key Al-Warfalla tribesman, told Al-Jazeera “we tell the brother (Gaddafi), well he’s no longer a brother, we tell him to leave the country”. The tribe lives south of Tripoli and the noose is tightening in a geographical sense as well.

India has a stake in Libya, not simply from a sense of military history or from lucrative construction contracts and labour market benefits. But something far more sinister and important. Libya was, after all, where the global network of AQ Khan came apart. It was the seizure of a consignment to Libya that exposed the dodgy Bhopal-born nuclear smuggler. Col Gaddafi quickly turned approver and cut a deal with the West.

The full picture of that nuclear proliferation supermarket is not yet available with India. The country needs to know more than what it does currently for the sake of today and tomorrow. It is worth investing a little more in the minds of Libya to get a clearer picture of things back home. There have always been connections and it is a question of making the right contact to get the correct music score. It is in our national security interest. The Indian First Armoured Division was not on a desert holiday during World War II. It had a role to play and so do we today.

Yes Libya is different. There was report that Qaddafi has only 5000 troops to guard him. The whole army has decided not to support him any further. I hope that Benghazi sheik hangs him and truly becomes ghazi!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Feb 2011 08:44

Mosaic TV on Dish had Qaddafi's speech. Full of rants and King Louis XIV type rhetoric. He claims he and his family are Libya! Shades of After me the deluge!

He is ranting. Means on his way out.

symontk · Post by **symontk** » 23 Feb 2011 09:04

IMO, someone is creating lot of Pakistan's across Arab world which will be neither opposing US but also not supporting US. They will behave as current pakistan do. They are throwing away dictators and are veering towards democracy with military help

But why is the question? Or was it the part Arabs understood in the Obama's speech at Cairo?

Anyway Israel is going to have funtime

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 23 Feb 2011 10:01

A_Gupta wrote:As usual, FOX News is notable for its low quality.

Saudi Arabia and Jordan are still standing and they are American allies.

Libya with its Qaddafi is not and was not an American ally.

I think Yemen has a Pakistan-like relationship with the US.

Tunisia has good relations with the US and probably will continue to have. There didn't seem much in their revolution that was anti-US.

The future of Egypt is up in the air, I think.

Good points. So much for newsweek et al rushing to print with stories of how obama bungled in ME etc.

However, a Bahrain sunni monarchy overthrow will likely be a blow to US interests in the region. Unkil has a big mil base there. ALso, the shia majority people there will install a shia-majority govt that will be softer towards Iran, unkil's arch-enemy in the region, that unkil and its regional allies - KSA and Israel - would like. JMTPs, of course.

Karna_A · Post by **Karna_A** » 23 Feb 2011 10:15

Hari Seldon wrote: However, a Bahrain sunni monarchy overthrow will likely be a blow to US interests in the region. Unkil has a big mil base there. ALso, the shia majority people there will install a shia-majority govt that will be softer towards Iran, unkil's arch-enemy in the region, that unkil and its regional allies - KSA and Israel - would like. JMTPs, of course.

Bahrain monarchy and others will run to KSA like numerous before them.
What is interesting to know is where does KSA monarchy plan to run if push comes to shove?
I am sure they have a Plan B, wonder if Plan B is Bakistan or Bharat.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 23 Feb 2011 10:16

How did the West get Qaddafi so wrong?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... _can_trust

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 23 Feb 2011 10:18

Karna_A wrote:I am sure they have a Plan B, wonder if Plan B is Bakistan or Bharat.

The Windsor Castle

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 23 Feb 2011 11:40

Our Secret Connections with the Muslim Brotherhood

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archive ... otherhood/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Feb 2011 12:24

UK & switzerland is where saudi royals stash their cash. italy and spain are their playgrounds. either of these four would welcome such high net worth individuals as they always do - doesnt matter nature of their wealth.

regime change in the gulf region would be good in another sense - many IMs have a romantic and awe struck notion of the gulf arabs the same way americans used to have of xanadu or el dorado. once a few kings and warlords hang from the lamp posts and palaces burn and everyone see it on TV these romantic ideas will get burned too.

people will discover their indic roots soon enough

this goes for all wannabe arabs around the world.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 23 Feb 2011 12:41

Jaipal Reddy meeting Gulf leaders

http://pib.nic.in/release/phsmall.asp?phid=33854

http://pib.nic.in/release/phsmall.asp?phid=33855

http://pib.nic.in/release/phsmall.asp?phid=33856

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 23 Feb 2011 12:57

Karna_A wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote: However, a Bahrain sunni monarchy overthrow will likely be a blow to US interests in the region. Unkil has a big mil base there. ALso, the shia majority people there will install a shia-majority govt that will be softer towards Iran, unkil's arch-enemy in the region, that unkil and its regional allies - KSA and Israel - would like. JMTPs, of course.
Bahrain monarchy and others will run to KSA like numerous before them.
What is interesting to know is where does KSA monarchy plan to run if push comes to shove?
I am sure they have a Plan B, wonder if Plan B is Bakistan or Bharat.

Switzerland, UK, France & US.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Feb 2011 15:39

juciy wikileaks details on qadhafi and his boys
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world ... ables.html

apparently keeps a bevy of blonde ukrainian 'nurses'

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 23 Feb 2011 16:46

Singha-ji, IM's I have interacted with in the Gulf, have had very low opinions of their host nations
perhaps its the ones at home who have the fancy notions?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 23 Feb 2011 17:41

http://www.thehindu.com/arts/magazine/a ... 471411.ece

Unlike the educated elite who go Westwards, attracted by better opportunities and a luxurious lifestyle, those who land up in West Asia as waged labourers have a much harder time: Practically no rights, hostile working environments and absolutely no support systems. Why is it that the violation of their basic rights doesn't figure at all in the national imagination?

The hideous reality of the Indian poor consigning members of their nearest kin to an obscure fate in an alien land does not stop with Mariamma. While better mobility, cross-cultural experience, improvement in educational and employment opportunities and hopes of luxurious life act as inducements for the elite and educated classes migrating abroad, those who land up in West Asia as waged labourers do so for as little returns as construction of a house, payment of dowry, or acquiring a bit of land. In many cases — decidedly more in number than the Australian “racist” attacks — these little dreams come crashing down due to the hostile working environment and lack of support systems.

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 23 Feb 2011 17:48

Nam, Libya relations unchanged
http://www.namibian.com.na/news/full-st ... unchanged/

The road from Tahrir Square to democracy
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7911777a-387d ... z1Emlzgnyh

Non Aligned Movement should play a key role in this transition time in some of these countries.
They should help the leaders to pave way for democracy in their country. Particularly India and Brazil should lead in these kind of transition times. The changes are inevitable how smooth and easy the transitions can be. Ofcourse some of those leaders were good in terms of development and changes in the society but now people wanted more of their power and participation in the national politics rather than remain spectators of their kings military rulers and presidents for more than a decade.

India has shown how democracy can be successful in terms of keeping people together while development and participation in decision making can also be done together in a subcontinent like this. Though centralisation of power and decision making process is yet to be realised more in India but the way it moves or evolves it will make the country stronger in working with people. This is one of the best examples for some of the Western Asian countries to follow.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Feb 2011 21:20

Nightwatch 22 Feb 2011

Lots of insight here. However in particular about Libya

Libya: "I am not going to leave this land, I will die here as a martyr," Qadhafi said on state television on 22 February. "I shall remain here defiant."

He called the people to cleanse Libya house-by-house unless protesters surrendered. "All of you who love Qadhafi, go out to the streets, secure the streets, don't be afraid of them... Chase them, arrest them, hand them over to security forces."

Qadhafi said he is the leader of Libya's revolution, not its president. All African states and all world rulers look up to Libya, he said. Protesters serve the devil and want to humiliate the country, while the leadership wants to recover.

Former Libyan Interior Minister General Abdel Fattah Younis, who defected from Qadhafi's regime, has urged the Libyan army to join the people and respond to their demands.

Comment: The box score of who holds what town is difficult to calculate because the dominant reporting today was about evacuations and departures. China, for example, is arranging the evacuation of 15,000 Chinese workers, matching the number of Egyptian workers in Libya. Who would have thought there were that many Chinese in Libya.

Nearly all oil companies and most embassies are evacuating foreign staff. In the last 24 hours oil production has nearly halted.

The country appears to have fragmented de facto, with Qadhafi holding Tripoli and nearby areas, but apparently not much more. Tripoli will be his bastion, as he tries to find a perimeter he and his cohorts can hold sand from which they can try to take back other areas. If they can stabilize the Tripoli area, they will try to link up with other groups loyal to Qadhafi who remain active outside the capital perimeter.

If the anti-government movement does not take Tripoli, it will not win. It can only do that if it gets more guns on its side and maintains its momentum.

One option is to form a government in Benghazi; declare a democratic republic and proclaim a state of belligerency which is a condition that enables outside nations to recognize and arm it. That would be tantamount to secession, in one interpretation, but it might be the only way for the international community to try to protect the substantial populations living in the uprising areas from massacre. It would be a long shot and would have to be done swiftly because Qadhafi's vengeance is a certainty under all circumstances, if the protestors fail to take Tripoli soon.

If Qadhafi and sons recover their balance and have enough loyal forces to shift the momentum, the bloodbath in the towns "controlled" by the protestors will be much worse than anything reported to date. They are essentially defenseless. This situation quickly can lead to mass murder … in eastern Libya and a major challenge to the US administration.

{I guess to preserve the figment of Leader Of Wastern world!}

Once the foreigners are gone, reliable information about the next phase of this struggle will be harder to obtain. That's because the governments also have shared lessons learned, such as how to shut down most of the cell phones and the internet.

There was oil guy on radio worried seriously about KSA. I dont know what he knows but he sounded like thats the last blow to 2008 meltdown.

My comment:
If 2007 sub-prime crisis was the primary and the 2008 financial meltdown was the secondary then change in KSA is the Tamper going off.

f-F-f

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Feb 2011 21:47

if the international 'community' is serious about a orderly transition, the best bet is to find Qadhafi's foreign friends and ask them to persuade him to leave and also freeze his foreign slush funds. if he doesnt go then stage a ambhibious landing in eastern libya and support a breakaway republic, shut down the libyan AF and navy and impose a blocade on tripoli.

Massa has everything to gain by doing this
- burnish its credentials with new regimes about being a friend of the people rather than its usual cohort of despots and maulanas
- strike covert deals to annul all the resource contracts China had struck with deposed regimes in favour of more profit sharing with the people deals
- utilize some of the vast MEUs that suck up $$ but find not much use!
- test new weapons and platforms, drive sales
- great new natgeo docus/FPS games about SEAL teams swimming into tripoli for covert missions
- show everyone who's the big dog in the region

its a low risk play - adequately armed the libyan citizens will themselves take care of regime loyalists...