West Asia News and Discussions

[shravan]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ma ... protesters
Tuesday 1 March 2011

The last 110 members of the LIFG were freed on 16 February, the day after the Libyan uprising began. One of those released, Abdulwahab Mohammed Kayed, is the brother of Abu Yahya Al Libi, one of al Qaida's top propagandists. Koumi fled Libya and is said to have ended up in Afghanistan working for Bin Laden. Captured in Pakistan, he was handed over to the US and sent to Guantánamo Bay in 2002. In 2009 he was sent back to Libya.

Why did Gaddafi's release brother of Libi Or Was he forced to release this people ?

[ramana]

Could be Lenin strategy. Lenin was sent back to moscow from Berlin to take over the revolution in 1916.

By this release it gives credence to AlQ in the rebels.
Right now the rebels need all the help they can get to overthrow Gadda fi!

[shyamd]

^^ which appears to be the decision by the international community... But the governments need to get their act together and move fast, otherwise Gaddafi will win back everything.
You know Gaddafi has only begun to use air force decisevily against the rebels Only recently. So he did try and make some sort of peaceful arrangement.

Mukesh, please check mail.


Re-Libyan predictions on my blog posted 2nd March.

The BRF take on whats going on in West Asia.
MENA Region - Quick Update

Editor has not been sleeping and is watching the current events unfold.

First Stop: Libya

Many are wondering what is going on in Libya. We'll make this simple.
The eastern side of Libya is currently held by "rebels". These rebels are essentially members of the armed forces of Libya and the people.

Do we see them winning? Nope. We do not. As long as Gaddafi continues to control the Airspace,
he may continue to bring in troops/Mercenaries from Niger, Chad, Syria etc. Yes that's right Syria is not a typo, Syria is showing solidarity with Libya and in the event of a full scale war, Syria will send their pilots to fly on behalf of the Libyan Air Force.

We believe that the western intelligence agencies are busy on the ground in Libya, trying to organise the rebel movement and of course evacuate their nationals. So far the french and british have delivered "aid" and weapons to the rebels.

Talks of no-fly zone are just that - talk, at the moment. Its something that is too difficult to impose as it would involve a US/western intervention and bombing spree. The current economic/political climate in the EU and the US does not allow for this - which is evidenced by Secretary of Defence Gates comments in the last few days.

No one appears to be covering the damage that the current crisis is going to cause the Spanish economy, which would feed into the EU economies.

So in summary: We do not see an intervention by the West at this juncture. Rebels are slowly losing territory to Gaddafi's military evidenced by re-gaining Al Bayda today. Unless, the west enforces a no fly zone via Egypt etc anti-government forces will get over run.

We'd also like to point out that there is a heavy propaganda going on here by the west. Good quality information is particularly hard to receive at the moment.

Shades of Saddam here. By no means is this over yet - this war may continue for a while.

Ahhh.... BR ahead of the curve. Reported Western involvement in Libya was reported well before media got a smell of this.

Added later: Keep in mind not just Libyan jihadi's but Sahara based AQIM.

[shyamd]

India - Iran:

What does the recent visit by SS Menon mean?

Some quick points:
- Strategic ties appears to be mentioned in the letter to Ahmadinejad. What does that entail? Complete integration of economic, security, intelligence, defence, counter terror etc. This is on par with other strategic partners in the region such as Oman, Qatar (who both incidentally share strategic ties with Iran) and KSA.

How realistic is this?
- Economic: LOL! Pretty tough at the moment given UN sanctions. Unlikely to yield more than oil trade.
- Defence: We already have agreements in place which would have been quietly upgraded with a quiet defence delegation visit to Tehran last year.
- Intelligence/counter terror: Already in place. RAW chief was due to visit post elections last year. We have an agreement in place and we share inputs on Af-Pak as we have complementary capabilities. Iran has already provided us input on certain terror investigations and has prevented terror suspects onward travel to Pakistan on a few occassions.

Geopolitically, over the next 2 years its good to warm up relations and cool them once the heat switches on.

[shyamd]

U.S. officials are at odds over Libya outcome

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper expects Moammar Kadafi to ultimately defeat rebels, but the White House has a different view.
Rebel fighters

Libyan rebel fighters bring a wounded comrade to a hospital in Port Brega. U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told a Senate panel Thursday that the battlefield momentum had begun to shift toward Kadafi's regime. (Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times)

By Ken Dilanian and Peter Nicholas, Los Angeles Times

March 10, 2011, 5:55 p.m.

Reporting from Washington
With forces loyal to Moammar Kadafi continuing to pound and push rebel forces into retreat, America's top intelligence official said the Libyan dictator was likely to prevail in the long term, a fresh indication that the current reliance on diplomacy by Western nations may not be enough to topple him.

In a blunt assessment, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told a Senate panel Thursday that the battlefield momentum had begun to shift toward Kadafi's regime and, because of its superior firepower and logistical capabilities, "I think over the longer term that the regime will prevail."

The retired Air Force general said his assessment was based in part on secret intelligence, which indicated that special military units loyal to Kadafi and equipped with tanks and artillery have been able to maintain and replenish their weapons.

Even if Kadafi doesn't defeat the rebels, Clapper said, Libya could end up split into two or three parts in "a Somali-like situation," which senators said would be disastrous for U.S. interests.

Clapper's comments sent the White House scrambling to organize an unusual on-the-record conference call with reporters by national security advisor Thomas Donilon, who said Clapper's view didn't take into account the pressure the U.S. and other countries were bringing, such as economic sanctions, travel bans and the freezing of assets.

"We've isolated Kadafi and denied him resources," Donilon said. "We're ensuring accountability, building international support and building capabilities to assist the Libyan people. It's a fluid situation and it's not going to be resolved overnight. But … we've acted quite swiftly and steadily to ramp up our efforts," Donilon said.

The clashing Obama administration views came on a day when France became the first nation to recognize the opposition government that has been established in Benghazi, in eastern Libya. That followed a meeting in Paris between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and two envoys from the Libyan opposition, and the French said they would send an ambassador to Benghazi soon.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told a House committee that she would be meeting with representatives of the provisional government in eastern Libya next week. U.S. officials have been speaking regularly to opposition leaders for two weeks and are taking steps toward determining whether to officially recognize the rebel groups.

The leader of the provisional government is Mustapha Abdul Jalil, a former justice minister who is a devout Muslim but also a firm believer in the rule of law, current and former U.S. officials said.

U.S. officials pointed out that they are barred from providing arms to the rebels under a U.N. resolution adopted last month. They could, however, seek a waiver if they decided it was desirable to arm the groups.

Kadafi's determination to fight back against the opposition has rattled the West, which had watched democratic forces in Tunisia and Egypt topple authoritarian regimes without international military intervention. But Libya has presented a contrary, darker example.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said that if the four-decade dictator was able to defeat the rebels, "it would signal to rulers across the region that the best way to maintain power in the face of peaceful demands for justice is through swift and merciless violence."

"Perhaps the greater concern for all of us should be what it would mean for America's credibility and moral standing if a tyrant were allowed to massacre Arabs and Muslims in Libya, and we watched it happen," McCain said.

McCain and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) contended that the Obama administration should do more to help the rebels, including a no-fly zone, to prevent Kadafi from retaining power.

"That's a very bad outcome, and it calls out to our leadership here in Washington to act quickly to not let this happen," Lieberman said.

He suggested "perhaps supplying them with weapons, perhaps sharing intelligence with them about the movement of the Kadafi forces, jam communications."

Although the Obama administration and European governments have said for weeks that military options were under consideration, there was little indication Thursday that North Atlantic Treaty Organization defense ministers, opening a two-day meeting in Brussels, were seriously contemplating a no-fly zone or other military assistance to Libyan rebels.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, secretary-general of NATO, said the alliance would move more ships in the central Mediterranean to help monitor the U.N.-mandated arms embargo of Libya and provide humanitarian assistance. But he added that establishing a no-fly zone was not possible without "a clear United Nations mandate."

"Planning will continue. But that's the extent of it with respect to the no-fly zone," Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates told reporters.

In Washington, meanwhile, Secretary of State Clinton reasserted the Obama administration position that it wants international consensus on any intervention to aid the rebels.

"The United States acting alone would be stepping into a situation the consequences of which would be unforeseeable," she said.

Although White House officials tried to downplay Clapper's pessimistic assessment of the situation in Libya, the intelligence chief didn't mince words in his testimony.

"We believe that Kadafi is in this for the long haul," Clapper said. "I don't think he has any intention of leaving, from all the evidence we have, which I would be happy to discuss with you in closed session. He appears to be hunkering down for the duration."

Gen. Ronald Burgess, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, was more equivocal, but told senators that the rebels no longer had the upper hand.

"Initially the momentum was with the other side; that has started to shift," he said. "Whether or not it has fully moved to Kadafi's side is not clear at this time, but we have now reached a state of equilibrium."

McCain asked Clapper whether it would raise the morale of the rebels if the U.S. recognized the Libyan National Council, a group representing the fighters, as France has done.

"It probably would raise their morale, sir, and that's a policy call and certainly not in my department of intelligence," Clapper said.

Clapper, who coordinates the nation's 16 intelligence agencies, drew stinging condemnation for his remarks on Libya from one Republican senator, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. He called on Clapper to resign, declaring the director has a "lack of situational awareness" and was sending the wrong message to Kadafi and the people in the streets of Libya.

Clapper was also criticized at the hearing by senators for saying that China and Russia were America's gravest national security threats.

President Obama's caution on Libya has drawn widespread criticism from foreign policy officials across the political spectrum. Samuel R. Berger and Zbigniew Brzezinski, former national security advisors who served in the last two Democratic administrations, said the White House should take more aggressive action against the regime.

Brzezinski said in an interview that Obama's calls for Kadafi to step down would sound hollow if he didn't follow up with concrete action.

Obama "keeps saying Kadafi must do this and must do that and must be brought to justice. It ends up being just words," Brzezinski said.

"I shudder every time I hear [Obama and Secretary of State Clinton] say, 'He must ....' or 'This is unacceptable.' What does unacceptable mean?" he said.

"It means we don't like it, but won't do anything about it. That seems to be the translation."

One step the U.S. could easily take would be to send warplanes aloft near the Libyan coastline, a powerful deterrent to Libyan jets even if such a step falls short of a no-fly zone, Brzezinski said.

Washington is now backtracking and has delegated the decision on Nfz to Europe.

Either way, US is gonna lose, so as confusingas things are looking at the moment, the US is happy to let Gaddafi win - as I said above, AQ will mop up weapons cheaply, especially MANPADs. This is no joke as these weapons may one day be used in europe. So the US, EU are being careful about this.

Gaddafi is prepared, as posted above in the NYT article, he HAS CASH IN THE BILLIONS in his complex. This guy is relaxed about the situation and he is deterring any EU/Western action. Believe Saif Gaddafi when he says his dad aint going no where. Gaddafi still has support, so in the worst case scenario of US troop deployment in Libya, Gaddafi will go underground SADDAM style. This reminds me of Saddam prior to invasion. Saddam met with people in a car in some sidestreet with senior Baath members, handing out suitcases of cash to fund the guerilla war. And we all know where Iraq is today. Gaddafi is not worried, the guerilla warfare option is the nuclear option for Gaddafi. And EU will suffer the most as more investment in surveillance, coastal intel will have to be ramped up.

Any direct military support to rebels will back fire, ala Afghanistan back in the 80's. India and the US is still suffering from the after effects as the US supplied stingers are continuing to cause trouble for India and US. Imagine this in Europe. No chance my friends, I don't think this No fly zone is going to happen, neither is military support.

Gaddafi also has used his intel equipment well and he knows exactly who the transnational government is. He is also using his surveillance to analyse rebel positions.

Either way, the best that the US can hope for is a split Libya, this will only happen if a No fly zone is imposed. But there is just soo much bad effects including affecting the EU economy FATALLY!
No fly zone seems dead to me. I just can't see how they will do it.

However, if the ARab League come out strong tomorrow and favour a No Fly Zone. Then MAYBE we will have a NFZ.

[ramana]

What if they have four man ex-SAS types with stingers on the ground? This way the stuff is not out of control and still get the Libiyna AF countered.

[shyamd]

^^ Possibly, but there is too much public attention now to warrant that type of thing. Whatever happens, fi they supply weapons, the west is going to want them back (just like AFPak I suppose). Insted of ex-SAS, they could put in Special forces for support - but here is the problem. Apparently, no one wants to go in without US support and US specops are too heavily tied up (yemen, Afg & Iraq) to get seriously involved in Libya. Its a big country, and they need to be in various places. So I suppose only option is mercenaries. Who wants to foot the bill? Any volunteers?

[krisna]

Dated articles- some websurfing - knowing something about Libya.
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/africa/l ... c_1974.jpg
ethnic tribes in Libya

Underground "Fossil Water" Running Out

In the meantime, though, paleowater is the only option in many water-strapped nations. For instance, Libya is habitable because of aquifers—some of them 75,000 years old—discovered under the Sahara's sands during 1950s oil explorations.
The North African country receives little rain, and its population is concentrated on the coasts, where groundwater reserves are becoming increasingly brackish and nearing depletion.
Since Libyan President Muammar Qaddafi launched his Great Man-Made River Project in the 1980s, an epic system of pipes, reservoirs, and engineering infrastructure is being built. It will be able to pump from some 1,300 paleowater wells and move 230 million cubic feet (6.5 million cubic meters) of H2O every day.

[url=http://american_almanac.tripod.com/libya.htm]Libya Turns On The Great Man-Made River[/url]

Under the giant scheme, water is pumped from aquifers under the Sahara in the southern part of the country, where underground water resources extend into Egypt and Sudan. Then the water is transported by reinforced concrete pipeline to northern destinations. Construction on the first phase started in 1984, and cost about $5 billion. The completed project may total $25 billion.

South Korean construction experts built the huge pipes in Libya by some of the most modern techniques. The engineering feat involves collecting water from 270 wells in east central Libya, and transporting it through about 2,000 kilometers of pipeline to Benghazi and Sirte. The new ``river'' brings 2 million cubic meters of water a day. At completion, the system will involve 4,000 kilometers of pipepines, and two aqueducts of some 1,000 kilometers.

Over 95% of Libya is desert, and the new water sources can open up thousands of hectares of irrigated farmland. At present over 80% of the country's agriculture production comes from the coastal regions, where local aquifers have been overpumped, and salt water intrusion is taking place.

The Great Man-Made River project and its objectives fly in the face of the water-control schemes sanctioned by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. These institutions have blocked work on other ``great projects'' such as the Jonglei Canal--the huge ditch that was designed as a straight channel on the upper White Nile in southern Sudan. The Jonglei Canal, which stands half-finished and abandoned at present, would have drained swamplands, aided agriculture, transportation, power resources, and health, and provided expanded flow to the Nile River all the way down to Egypt.

If it is vanity that motivated the project, at least the vanity of Libya's head of state is being channeled in a productive direction in this case--which is more than can be said of the leaders of Britain and the United States

Libyas great man made river project

[abhishek_sharma]

About Oil Prices

As the U.S. considers intervention in Libya, it should look to history

Think Again: Arab Democracy

[RajeshA]

IMHO, the preferable way to resolve Libya is to really get Muammar Gaddafi to take his family and retreat to Switzerland or Italy, giving him an international amnesty as part of the deal.

Arab League should put up a Peacekeeping Force under UN auspices, and keep the peace there. The U.N. should hold elections and bring in democracy!

Otherwise, EU would be seeing an unstable Libya in a long civil war or a Libya and its Oil resources in the hands of Al Qaeda! None of these prospects are really good!

Since Saudi Arabia cannot and would not give Muammar Gaddafi sanctuary, Europe seems to be the best bet! If Arab League negotiates Gaddafi's stepping down, there would not be such a big uproar at him making Switzerland or Italy his home!

[shyamd]

^^ Swiss apsolutely hate him. If you notice the swiss were the first to sanction and freeze assets.
This was because one of his sons got arrested in Switzerland and this caused a major diplomatic spat which led to Gaddafi holding a few swiss doctors as hostage.

Italy, maybe. But I think this was already offerred by Gaddafi, the US turned it down I believe.

[shyamd]

GCC must cooperate with regional powers

Saturday, Mar 12, 2011

Gulf News

Protection of global commerce requires improved security ties

Dubai Gulf countries must cooperate with regional and strategic powers to protect its commercial sea routes from piracy and nuclear threats, experts say.

Waves of protests across the Arab world, nuclear weapons development and sea lanes of commerce threatened by pirates and states are real dangers that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) must address through security co-operation with regional powers like India, said Lalit Mansingh, former foreign secretary of India, in a panel discussion at the Dubai School of Government.

“Why is this important? Because we are living in a dangerous world. The most dangerous areas of the world are close to both India and the GCC countries.”

Power shift

As economic power shifts from the West to the East, the importance of forging new business ties between the GCC and Eastern powers like India and China becomes a political, economic and security priority, panelists said.

“The big discussions going on in international circles is how to protect global commerce, how to protect our sea lanes, our [air]space and cyberspace. These are the issues before responsible countries. The GCC has to face the situation and threats that are coming from various quarters,” Mansingh added.

As one of the biggest naval powers in the region, India has offered help to GCC countries to protect themselves against these threats and has already forged deals with Saudi Arabia and Oman, he noted.

American security comes “with baggage” and the US has lost its capacity to be a global policeman — a responsibility that must be shared by global powers, he said.

Any blockage of the Strait of Hormuz or the Strait of Malacca could strangle global economies, Mansingh emphasised.

“We should protect the freedom of the seas for safety and prosperity.”

While Gulf trade with India is already robust, there is room for growth. GCC investments in India and China are safe options for their sovereign wealth funds, panelists said.

The Indian finance minister recently announced details of the government budget which included increasing infrastructure investments to $1 trillion (Dh3.6 trillion) in the next five years and raising the ceiling of investment in bonds from $5 billion to $25 billion. Mansingh noted.

GCC business relationships with China are “not that close” at the moment but now is the time to build them, said James McGregor, journalist and author of One Billion Customers: Lessons from the Front Lines of Doing Business in China.

China is a leader in solar power and soon in wind power, making it a good business partner for GCC countries that are also interested in alternative energy sources, he said.

Intangibles

While looking eastwards at growing markets, it is useful to consider how to do business in different cultures, how to win permission to enter the market, and understand the “intangibles” of doing business there, said Margery Kraus, founder and chief executive of APCO Worldwide, a global communications consultancy.

This “return on reputation” or ROR is just as important to consider as the return on investments (ROI), she said.

With Arab populations raging against lack of economic opportunities, the GCC would do well to learn from the Chinese model of growth, said McGregor.

“China developed by attracting foreign investment and training its own people,” he said.

in numbers

spending plan

$1tr

infrastructure ?investment in five years

$25b

ceiling of investment bonds

By Deena Kamel Yousef?Staff Reporter

[RajeshA]

^^ Swiss apsolutely hate him. If you notice the swiss were the first to sanction and freeze assets.
This was because one of his sons got arrested in Switzerland and this caused a major diplomatic spat which led to Gaddafi holding a few swiss doctors as hostage.

Italy, maybe. But I think this was already offerred by Gaddafi, the US turned it down I believe.

My mention of the Swiss was a bit tongue in cheek, because of the events you mention!

[shyamd]

Prince Alwaleed Receives Indian Ambassador to Discuss Investment Issues

1/3/2011

Click To EnlargeHRH Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Bin Abdulaziz Alsaud, Chairman of Kingdom Holding Company (KHC) received in his office in Riyadh HE Mr. Talmiz Ahmed Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia who was accompanied by Mr. shasheendra Jain, Second Secretary and Mr. Manohar Ram, Deputy Chief of Mission. The meeting was also attended by a delegation from KHC that included, Dr. Nahla Alanbar, Private Executive Assistant to HRH the Chairman, Mr. Hani Agha Travel and External Affairs Senior Manager, Mr. Hicham Fleihan, Travel and External Affairs Manager.

The meeting began as the ambassador and the delegation thanked Prince Alwaleed for giving them the opportunity to meet with them, commending him on his local, regional and international investments. During the meeting the ambassador expressed his government’s desire for Prince Alwaleed to further invest in their country. Moreover, Prince Alwaleed discussed his investments through KHC in India that include the Four Seasons Hotel in Mumbai via Four Seasons management, Swissotel Calcutta, and in the banking sector through Citigroup.

In 2010, Prince Alwaleed and his spouse HH Princess Ameerah Al-Taweel, Vice Chairwoman of Alwaleed Bin Talal Foundation visited the Republic of India, they visited Dhravi (North Mumbai, a slum over parts of Sion), Haji Ali Mosque, Bhau Daji Lad Museum, Mani Bhavan, the Residence of Mahatma Ghandi and the Gateway of India. During the visit, Prince Alwaleed was received by Mr. Mukesh Ambani, Chairman and CEO of Reliance Industries Ltd. at his new residence. The two discussed economic and investments issues and touched upon HRH’s international investments. It is worth noting that Mr. Ambani is the richest man in India and the fourth richest man in the world in Forbes magazine. Furthermore, Mr. Ambani and his spouse hosted a dinner in honor of Prince Alwaleed and Princess Ameerah.

Moreover, during the visit Prince Alwaleed was received by Mr. Ratan N. Tata, Chairman of TATA Group at the Taj Mahal Hotel. The Prince and Mr. Tata discussed economic issues and potential investment opportunities between KHC and TATA group. The two also exchanged general strategic ideas related to various areas of investment.

In 2009, HRH had received Mr. Tata and hosted a dinner in honor of his guest at Kingdom Resort in Riyadh. In 2005, Prince Alwaleed visited India where he met with former President Dr. A. P J Abdul Kalam at the Presidential Office.

[RamaY]

GCC asks UN to declare a no-fly zone in Libya.

How many of GCC members are democratic? What actions they are planning to take to protect the interests of immigrant communities.

Interesting times ahead.

[shyamd]

^^ Saar, What does GCC members being democratic have to do with Libyan No fly zone? Is democracy the best and only way to govern? Do explain about immigrant communities.

PM cozying up to Iran to cadge visit

March 13, 2011 7:07:49 AM

Swapan Dasgupta

President Barack Obama is reported to have told some of his officials that it would be much easier to be the President of China than be resident at the White House. This backhanded compliment to autocratic governance is certain to be endorsed by the mandarins of at least one Ministry in South Block.

India is a rumbustious democracy with a citizenry that is infuriatingly inquisitive and argumentative. However, the demands for transparency don't seem to apply to the conduct of foreign policy. Rarely does Parliament witness a serious debate on India in the world; foreign policy doesn't intrude into competitive politics unless the issue happens to be Pakistan — the furore over the India-US nuclear agreement was a rarest of rare case; the media is seriously smitten by 'client-itis' and the principle of keep-the-source-happy; and the 'strategic community' is a cosy club for collecting dollops of air miles. The comfort level of the foreign policy establishment is so incredibly high that the Government can afford to persist with a Minister who is incapable of telling the difference between a speech written for him and a speech drafted for the Foreign Minister of Portugal.

Such a system is calculated to trigger flights of whimsy which, very occasionally, even come into the public gaze. Last week, the official website of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran did India a great service by divulging a version of his conversation with India's National Security Adviser Shiv Shankar Menon — a man who has acquired the reputation for being the single-window clearance for foreign policy.

It's a riveting account and for that reason features (as of Saturday morning) as the lead item of the website, complete with a photograph of the meeting. The NSA apparently told Ahmadinejad that "New Delhi is after the establishment of comprehensive relations with Iran, including strategic ties". To further cosy up to a leader who is regarded in most of the democratic world as an oddball, Menon referred to an earlier meeting of the President with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and observed: "Many of the predictions you had about the political and economic developments in the world have come to reality and the world order is going under basic alterations, which has necessitated ever increasing relations between Iran and India". This generous tribute had been preceded by a rambling Ahmadinejad rant about the need to dismantle the "oppressive world order".

Since both the PMO and MEA have chosen to pretend that the meeting was a non-event and that there is nothing to clarify, we can presume that the Iranian version is a true account and that India does value the prescience of Ahmadinejad and shares his agenda of global reconstruction. Such a presumption would, of course, be a facile caricature of the niceties and silences that often accompany diplomacy. Yet, there are questions that need to be answered by the Government.

Menon was apparently carrying a personal letter from our Prime Minister to Iran's President. The grapevine suggests that the letter and Menon's Teheran visit was a sweetener for a bid to cadge a firm invitation for a Singh visit to Iran later this year. The letter, according to the well-informed correspondent of The Telegraph in Washington, "may turn out to be the pivot around which India's West Asia policy may be calibrated to meet...new realities of this…volatile region."

That India needs to come to terms with a West Asia that is certain to experience a multi-cornered conflict between the forces of autocracy, democracy and Islamism isn't in any doubt. From the time in the 1930s when the Indian rupee was the local currency in much of the Persian Gulf, New Delhi's influence in the region has diminished alarmingly. For this we have no one to thank but Jawaharlal Nehru's preference for ideological abstractions over neighbourhood interests. If an economically resurgent India now seeks to reclaim some of the lost ground, it is a welcome move.

Yet, going by this logic there is something extremely bizarre about using Iran as the launching pad for such an exercise. For a start, Iran views the Arab upsurge as the first step in the creation of a West Asia driven by the principles of the Iranian Revolution — a perception that is both contentious and frightening. Second, for all the lip service paid by Ahmadinejad to the creation of a just world order, the Iranian regime is turning increasingly autocratic and intolerant of the democratic urges at home. Indeed, it is entirely possible that the fire that began in Tunisia, engulfed Egypt and is raging in Libya, Yemen and Bahrain could also consume the theocracy in Iran at some point in the near future. Third, the adventurist anti-Israel thrust of Iran runs counter to Indian interests. Israel is unquestionably India's only enduring ally in the region — however much we choose to pretend otherwise. Finally, in view of the heightened concern in the West over Iran's nuclear ambitions, any move to cozy up to Iran — more than what is demanded by the imperatives of energy security and a western route into Afghanistan — would create diplomatic complications elsewhere.

India needs to be 'correct' in its dealings with Iran. But there is a difference between being correct and becoming obsequious — what happened to Britain in its dealings with Muammar Gaddafi's Libya. In the absence of transparency and domestic scrutiny, even foreign policy can go overboard

Yawn! You can tell Swapanji hasn't read into this issue or investigated Indian foreign policy on West Asia. Such articles are more ideological than actually with understanding of the underlying realities in West Asia and the geopolitical jockeying that is currently taking place in the region. Sigh...

[ramana]

Cognitive dissonance or what! West Asian crisis is turning things upside down and chatterati used to one track mind are sound confused now.

[shyamd]

^^ Ramanaji, thats because those people don't really understand the GCC rulers and their stance. They prefer to think of them as yeevil arabs causing trouble as usual.

Take this article from Outlook which is supposed to be a special o nthe GCC protests. An absolute disgrace.

The Dunes Are Shifting
Indians are suspicious of the advancing Arab discontent. But final conclusions will be drawn in Saudi Arabia.

It’s a sight that is both mesmerising and inspiring. Thousands and thousands of people stalking the streets of different Arab countries, united in their collective fervour for democracy and economic uplift in a region notorious for despotic regimes. A hitherto quiescent people have risen in revolt, much to the nervousness of their authoritarian rulers. Who can ever argue against the change seemingly imminent in a land where protests and Islamic terror have tended to become synonymous? It’s the reason why we, in India as also around the globe, hope the high tide of democracy washes over the land of Arabs.

At Ground Zero, though, the picture is fuzzy. Take Oman’s desert town of Sohar, which erupted in protest against the ruler on February 28. As we in India applauded the protest shown on TV armed gangs walked into the Lulu Hypermarket, an Indian-owned chain with 87 outlets all over the Gulf, and set it ablaze. Neither the police nor the fire brigade intervened. Worse, local Omanis looted the hypermarket. Was the democratic upsurge also articulating incipient anti-Indian feelings?

No, says Anil Wadhwa, India’s ambassador in Muscat, Oman’s capital. “It was an act of vandalism by a small section who come from outside,” he told Outlook. Satish Nambiar, chairman of the Indian Social Club in Muscat too insists it’s a misreading: “Oman has been India-friendly. Sohar was an isolated incident, there’s nothing to worry about.”

Total rubbish and just an example of DDM. An absolute disgrace. This guy has done absolutely no research whatsoever. Not one protest was anti-Sultan in Oman! Desert town? Sohar is a port town. If the guy bothered to see the youtube videos, subcontinental guys were there robbing too.

Read more of the filth if you are interested in the level of DOrky media we have. We in India applauded protests against the sultan?? Our closest ally who has supported India's position on pretty much everything and has provided so much support for our security interests.

For people interested in West Asia, please read Atul Aneja who writes for the hindu. He is a real analyst and tells us the truth. His analysis of issues in the middle east is simply superb.

[RamaY]

ShyamD garu,

I don't know. GCC can be supporting the Libyan revolution for right reasons, but it would be interesting to see what they would when their own populations ring the calling bell.

On the immigrant populations - I was thinking about the lack of civil rights for Indians and wondering whether the political tsunami brings some positive change.

[ramana]

We read only you. So no need for others.

[JE Menon]

>>You can tell Swapanji hasn't read into this issue or investigated Indian foreign policy on West Asia. Such articles are more ideological than

Yes unfortunate. Expected more integrity from the man...

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Oman Update

• Protest keep continuing with more protest at private firms
  Sohar road access blocked again. Freight from UAE held up again

[shyamd]

Ramana, Thanks!

JEM, Indeed.

RamaY, GCC don't want to help Gaddafi - they don't like each other and the GCC took a very tough stance on it - the people who dealt with aid for Libyan people were very dissappointed by Gaddafi, it adds to the problem.

The GCC has reacted with spending more money on their populations - jobs, benefits etc. What civil rights don't immigrants have in GCC? Foreigners in the western country I live in can't vote etc.

----------------------
Bahrain has erupted once again. But this time public opinion is moving decisively against protesters. They are going around in armed gangs damaging shops etc. Todays protests blocked national highway and financial district. So the target is the economy. 3 extremist parties formed an alliance to bring down govt. Police have used tear gas and rubber bullets. 8 policemen were stabbed. Check out youtube for videos. JP Morgan has pulled out staff and shifted base to Dubai.

Army is not yet called out. Only police istaking on the protestors at the moment.

Libya, As predicted rebels have lost more territory to govt forces and are seen retreating to the next town. After that only Benghazi left. No Fly zone maybe too late now. Guerrilla warfare is next.

[shyamd]

Biggest news of the day:
Oman sultan to cede some powers after protests

Sultan has transferred lawmakiing to the two councils! And it is becoming an elected parliament effectively with powers to make laws. Up till now, laws were only made by Cabinet and Sultan.

Then UAE is opening up too:
NEC gives green light for setting up electoral committees in emirates

Then the breaking news is that the PSF (Peninsula Shield Force) has been brought into Bahrain! Things have really hit the fan there. Everyone is out on the street in neighbourhood watch style groups. This is big folks. The PSF is a joint GCC military force that consists of around 21000 troops. So far. Its quite weird though, as I would have thought that Bahrain troops would first be deployed before the PSF is called in. Lets see whats happening.

Hindus, Sikhs crowd UAE's lone temple

Martin Croucher

Last Updated: Mar 13, 2011
Prayers at the Hindu temple in Bur Dubai.

DUBAI // People queue in their tens of thousands each week to pray at the Hindu Temple in Bur Dubai's Old Souk.

They must pass through an alleyway so narrow, one could almost put a hand on either wall. Once inside they have to proceed quickly through their rites, supervised by hired security guards. There is no time - or space - for them to linger.

On a recent day Prakash Chabria, a manager at the temple, waved his arms to move along several people who had stepped out of the queue to prostrate themselves on the floor.

"We allow them to do their prayers," he said, "but people can't stay for long".

The Shiva and Krishna Mandir temple complex in Al Bastakiya was built back in 1958, but its community has long outgrown it.

The Hindus share the overcrowded space with the Sikh community, but that group is set to move on. They have already been granted a plot of land from the Dubai Government and are opening a new centre in the coming months.

The Hindu temple's management has also put in a request with the Dubai Government for more land, but has yet to hear back.

"The area isn't important," said a staffer at the centre. "We'd be happy with whatever we are given."

There are 1.7 million Indians in the Emirates and although the number of Hindus is unknown, the Indian Consulate in Dubai estimates about 50 per cent of the Indian population are followers. The temple is the only gathering point for Hindus in the UAE and one of just a few in the Gulf, making it a sought-after spiritual lifeline. Things get even busier during religious holidays. The two-day Maha Shivaratri festival last year drew around 125,000 people. Their queues stretched for several kilometres, up to the Plaza Cinema.

"We have people coming from Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman," said Prakash Chabria, another manager at the temple. "Here is one of the only places where they can pray. They come in their thousands."

Inside the donations box, staff find coins and currencies from around the GCC as well as British pounds, American dollars and Chinese yuan.

The temple is unlike those normally found in India, located at the back of the souk in converted shop space. Devotees must proceed up one flight of steps on one corner of the building to the space, and then down another on the other side.

Every day of the week is devoted to an individual god; morning prayers start at 6am and run until 1pm; evening prayers run from 4.30pm to 10pm.

There are a handful of traders at the base of the temple selling prasad, or offerings, for Dh5 each. Each plastic bag contains flower petals, an apple, a small bottle of milk and a piece of cloth. Staff work furiously to open and repackage each offering - indicating they have been blessed by the god of that particular day - so it can be returned to the devotee on their way out.

"We believe that if you give something to the god, you will get something in return," said Prajhant Divecha, a devotee at the temple.

On the ground floor outside the temple, a number of shops sell statues of Hindu gods, bells, beads and other religious paraphernalia.

One of the best-loved is the one managed by Shankar Kanjani, 64, a community mainstay for the last decade.

"We are not interested in money," he said. "We only make enough to cover rent and salary. What we are doing is giving relief to people."

[shyamd]

Ok Folks, Shit has officially hit the fan in Bahrain. The Bahraini's have called PSF (Peninsula Shield Force) in confirmation of earlier post I had made. 7000 troops will arrive. This is going to be a decisive move sounds like. Saudi National Guard is rumoured to be preparing to enter Bahrain - well British Foreign office has reported this. Indian nationals have been advised to stay at home. Foreign journo's are barred from entering Bahrain and rumours are that British nationals are being made to fly back even if they are just citizens. Very tense moments in Bahrain. Tomorrow will be interesting.

[ldev]

^^^
The Shias in Bahrain will never compromise. Their real (unspoken?) demands are for the removal of the Sunni ruling family. They are also backed 100% by Iran. On the other hand, the Saudis (after the loss of Sunni Iraq) will not accept any further setbacks to Shia Iran, especially Bahrain. Therefore the only option is a hardline approach to the Bahrain issue from the Saudi perspective. The soft peddling by the Al-Khalifas vis a vis the Shia protestors was to preserve some semblance of independence for themselves - that was clearly unrealistic. The Saudi National Guard entering Bahrain is to leave Iran in no doubt as to Saudi determination in ensuring that there is no further loss of any other Sunni ruled Arab country.

As far as Gaddafi is concerned, he is a persona non grata in the GCC after calling King Abdullah, " a senile old fool", in a Arab League summit.

[ramana]

KSA forces in Bahrain

[shyamd]

Yes, its confirmed. Bahraini Reserves and certain military officials are being recalled I think.

[Samudragupta]

So the gloves are out,already there are demonastrations against the Hezbollah in Lebanon.......it now seems to have opened a flood gate...the other GCC members must be waiting to switch sides...

[shyamd]

C130's and C17's have been sighted landing at mil airports.

---------
Ldev, you got it right. So what's happening is that the crown prince called for dialogue to play a game of chess with the shia.
Now the shia are split into 2 groups. Mainstream and extreme. The majority are with the mainstream.

The mainstream parties agreed to go for dialogue, but they were pushing hard to get a constitutional monarchy. Let's say 90% of demands were met.
Then yesterday the major political party pulled out of talks with the crown prince. The extremists made an agreement to overthrow monarchy and set up a republic.

Yesterday protesters begun blocking off the financial district roads and targeting the economy.
They blocked off highways and stabbed a few policemen. So this meant the government were forced to take the gloves off.
As I said in an earlier post, the crown prince had visited many GcC nations to ask for the support.
All unanimously said that their militaries are at the king of Bahrain's service. The US promised to provide ekhanomic, military and political support. Although political support isn't really being shown if you heard Gates's comments after meeting with theKing of Bahrain.

So, as of last night military forces of all countries have begun landing in military airports. But word is that troops will reach from land, sea and air. These will be a Joint GCC forces. The UAE boys arrived last night. Saudi National Guard will likely be called in and the british foreign office has issued an advisory saying so too.

So, begins the beginning of the end. But the aim is to restore security across Bahrain. Bahrain is currently filled with police, protester and neighbourhood watch checkpoints. Things are in a state of anarchy at the moment.

Edit: apparently KSA forces will not be entering Bahrain. It will be the PSF or a joint GCC force.

Basically all GCC partners are tied through security agreements. These are now being put into play.

[Pranav]

African dissent on no-fly zone counts
By M K Bhadrakumar

At the height of the Egyptian uprising, well-known American investigative journalist Seymour Hersh said in an interview with al-Jazeera that the United States had a "Plan B" in the event of Hosni Mubarak stepping down. According to Hersh, it was none other than Amr Moussa - "whether he knows or not". There is nothing so far to show Moussa doesn't know.

He's far too well connected not to know - career diplomat and foreign minister for over 45 years and secretary general of Arab League (AL) since 2001. He hopes to succeed Mubarak as Egypt's next president.

Moussa delivers ...
Moussa's bid got great fillip by the AL decision Saturday to recommend imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya. His star has risen far above Mohammed ElBaradei's. Two major Arab countries opposed the AL statement - Syria and Algeria - but Moussa rammed it through, thanks to the AL heavyweights clamoring for democracy to succeed and autocracy to end - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan.

What bizarre drama! The plain truth is that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) commanded AL to speak since they need a fig leaf to approach the United Nations Security Council.

The EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, was in Cairo on Saturday by Moussa's side to ensure America's "Plan B" delivered. And he did. Promptly, the US, Britain, France and Canada "welcomed" the AL statement. NATO will meet on Tuesday to tone up its stance on Libya.

Britain and France, who spearhead the breathtaking campaign to mobilize Arab "support" for NATO intervention in Libya, have had a dream run. British Prime Minister David Cameron and newly-appointed French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe visited Cairo to explore how far the military junta could take charge of the oil-rich eastern Libyan province of Cyrenica.

... but Africa dissents
The Western powers had earlier mentioned the AL and African Union (AU) in the same breath as representing "regional opinion". Now it seems the AU isn't so important - it has become an embarrassment. African leaders are proving to be tough nuts to crack compared to Arab playboy-rulers.

Unsurprisingly, there is a virtual media blackout on the AU's activities on Libya. It is, therefore, useful to recapitulate. "The [AU] council reaffirms its firm commitment to the respect of the unity and territorial integrity of Libya, as well as its rejection of any form of foreign intervention in Libya," Ramtane Lamamra, AU commissioner for peace and security stated in Addis Abbaba. The AU's 15-member peace and security council decided to "put in lace a high-level ad-hoc committee" to monitor the Libyan crisis.

The leaders of South Africa, Uganda, Mauritania, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Mali would form the ad-hoc committee. "The ad hoc committee was set up ... to engage with all parties in Libya, facilitate an inclusive dialogue among them, and engage the African Union partners ... for the speedy resolution of the crisis in Libya," the bloc said. Lamamra said events in Libya needed "urgent African action" to bring about an end to the hostilities.

Most important, the AU "took note of the readiness of the government of Libya to engage in the path of political reforms. The council expressed the solidarity of the AU with Libya, and stressed the legitimacy of the aspirations of the Libyan peoples for democracy, political reforms, justice, peace and security as well as economic and social development".

Specter of disintegration
The paradox is, if you accept the principle of ascertaining the "regional opinion", then the AU's opinion becomes, arguably, more important to know than the AL's. Libya is as much an African country as an Arab country - if not more. The narrative of Libyan developments as a template of "Arab awakening" overlooks that reverberations and after-shocks of what happens are going to be felt deep inside Africa. As prominent Russian scholar on the region Yevgeny Satanovsky recently said:

It [unrest] won't be limited to the Middle East and North Africa ... The region will go through what Europe experienced in 1914-18. These processes always take a long time ... In Europe, the shooting started in 1914 and didn't stop until 1945 ... We have not seen what would happen to the other Gulf monarchies. We have not yet seen the end of the unrest that has gripped North Africa and the Middle East.

Algeria could still follow Libya's suit and Morocco might do the same. In January we saw Sudan split peacefully, but separatist elements have not been extinguished there. Former colonies tied together in unnatural conglomerates in the past by the English or the French never became integrated states. If this is so, we may still see disintegration of Nigeria, Kenya and other African countries.

Therefore, the British Foreign Office is opportunistic when it says the AL statement "is very significant and provides important regional support" for the idea of a no-fly zone. Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz of Saudi Arabia, Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain, Qaboos Bin Al Said of Oman, Abdullah II of Jordan - these autocrats cannot be hailed as stakeholders in Libya's march to democracy.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regimes are tottering on the abyss and themselves hoping NATO will salvage them. Their rulers keep their personal wealth of tens or hundreds of billions of dollars hoarded in Western banks and the umbilical cord cannot easily be broken.

Scarred memories
But, how is it that African states are different? First, when they hear Cameron or French President Nikolas Sarkozy or NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen speak of military intervention in North Africa, it rings a bell in their collective consciousness - of scarred memories of imperial domination, the horrendous crimes that the British, French or Dutch perpetrated on African people. They know how difficult it will be to get a NATO army to vacate its occupation of Africa. (Afghan President Hamid Karzai said on Saturday: "I would like to ask NATO and the US with honor and humbleness and not with arrogance to stop their operations in our land. We are a very tolerant people but now our tolerance has run out.")

Africans know NATO will eventually slither its way into the heart of their resource-rich continent from the North African beachhead. So, the AU faces an existential problem - unlike the GGC client states or Jordan, which have no conception of national liberation. The only "Arab revolt" Abdullah or Abdullah II ever knew is what British intelligence and Lawrence of Arabia financed in the debris of the Ottoman Empire a hundred years ago.

Besides, what dreads the AU countries is that Libya has a history of disunity. It was only in 1951 that King Idris unified the three autonomous provinces of Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenica. In the wake of the current strife, centrifugal tendencies have quickly resurfaced. Libya has dozens of tribes and Muammar Gaddafi knit together a tenuous alliance of some tribes but tribal feuds are common. The African countries share similar experience.

To be sure, Western intervention in Libya will necessitate at some stage involvement in "nation-building' - interference in the domestic affairs in the post-Gaddafi period. The native peoples will resent this involvement. And in the fullness of time, only the Islamist forces stand to gain. The stunning political reality of Libya is that Islam is the only unifying factor for the tribes and provinces of that fragile nation.

African leaders are genuinely nervous that the US is being myopic about the complexities involved. President Barack Obama should get to know them better, call them up from the Oval Office, reach out to them and consult them and ascertain whether they will accept NATO intervention in Libya. They are the real "stakeholders" - not the playboy kings, sheikhs or sultans from the bleached Arabian deserts. ...

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MC15Ak02.html

[shyamd]

Turkey just announced that if there is any Iranian interference in Bahrain. Turkey will side with GCC.
Interesting

[ldev]

^^
Thanks for the updates ShyamD. Thats what I thought. The GCC will draw a line in the sand re Bahrain. The Persian descent Bahraini Shias are the ones who will never compromise in having an Iranian style Islamic republic. By the way, you will probably also know that many of the prominent Sunni families also originated in Iran, but ofcourse their loyalties lie firmly with the ruling family.

[RamaY]

Will GCC ask UN to declare no-fly zone in Bahrain too?

[Dilbu]

Shyamd..Shias have called the intervention by GCC forces an act of war. if this erupts into street fight who will fight for the shias? Hezbollah?

[ramana]

There is Sunni-Shia and then there is Arab-Persian. We need to see which angle plays which role. The Sunni leaders of Bahrain are Persian in origin. Also Iran turned Shia during the Safavid dynasty and was Sunni before that. Safavids were a Turkish tribe!

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Hezbollah is only bite in Lebanon, all bark elsewhere.

[Samudragupta]

Hezbollah is only bite in Lebanon, all bark elsewhere.

If it ever reaches to that stage the PSF will face a bloody nose from Quds and Hezbollah....probably the Turks will be the happiest people in the world...

[shyamd]

Folks, its time for MEA to prepare a pull out plan for all Indian nationals in Bahrain. I stress only PREPARE. The extremists group have asked for arms and have said prepare for war against government.

There are groups of people roaming with Swords. One Bangladeshi expat confirmed killed and expats are being targeted in some places.

Ldevji, indeed its true.

I will answer all of the other questions later. Busy at work

[Lalmohan]

what do we know about these 'extremists'?
who are they?
who is backing them?