West Asia News and Discussions

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 17 Mar 2011 15:00

Libya: US urges tough United Nations resolution
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12768695

First no fly zone, then it is essential to get no movement of army vehicles in large scale against her own people in Libya.

No foreign ground forces should enter into Libya except an Arab peace forces led by democratic arab countries.

Bahrain the King should allow democracy so that he can be King and then country can be ruled by democratic people.

Saudi and Yemen need to change their constitution to give more provision to people's voices and voting power and form a democratic governance along with their kingly rule. Development schemes for common person in these countries should be taken into account. These countries should immediately stop using heavy arms against their people.

Rights group accuses Bahrain of using 'excessive force' on protesters
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast ... .protests/

Witnesses: Government supporters attack protesters rallying at square in Yemen capital; 8 hurt
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadi ... Id=6274357

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 17 Mar 2011 15:23

JE Menon wrote:Situation Report from Bahrain*

Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are being stopped at ad hoc checkpoints and being thrashed and/or killed.

Mosques are being entered, and knives are used while vehicles outside are being vandalised.

Buildings where Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are resident are being entered and apartment by apartment search conducted, and in at least one building people were killed on the basis of that search and identification.

So far the police and outside troops are not arresting many of the rioters, simply telling them to go home. They are returning home and then setting off again the next day...

Seriously, why? Is it just the fact that they are getting passports for services to royals? Can they not escape claiming to be Indians?

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 17 Mar 2011 16:01

No, people are being asked to show ID cards (employment) or passports... Rationale? The speculation is that Pak provision of soldiers or anti-riot support ... But this is only speculation. No verification possible at the moment. Most people are staying indoors, apparently. Please also note that a lot of people in the Bahraini police force etc are of Pakistani origin (especially Baluchi)... and clearly the rioters are not discriminating based on ethnicity but, it seems, on nationality.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 17 Mar 2011 16:22

Bravo! These people are turning me into a Iran supporter, I could never imagine that.....hope Indians living there can identify Pakis and post the details to the benefit of the locals...

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 17 Mar 2011 16:41

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... story.html#

Some gems

The UAE official warned that Gulf nations were “looking East” — to China, India and Turkey — for alternative security assistance.

The Gulf regimes have come to mistrust Obama, seeing him as a weak president who will sacrifice traditional allies in his eagerness to be “on the right side of history.”

...when you do that you become part of scrap heap of history...and destroy credibility for decades..

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 17 Mar 2011 17:05

menon,
can you not take out references to your source. if he has logged out, can some admin take it out in the meanwhile?

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 17 Mar 2011 17:08

Suppiah wrote:Quote:
The UAE official warned that Gulf nations were “looking East” — to China, India and Turkey — for alternative security assistance.

RajeshA ji,
The pan subcontinentalism and the events thereafter seems to be closer than we think....

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 17 Mar 2011 17:46

>>can you not take out references to your source.

I can, but don't intend to... I put it there deliberately. Like I said, there is a twist

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Mar 2011 18:36

Samudragupta wrote:
Suppiah wrote:Quote:
The UAE official warned that Gulf nations were “looking East” — to China, India and Turkey — for alternative security assistance.
RajeshA ji,
The pan subcontinentalism and the events thereafter seems to be closer than we think....

We spoke of opportunities in West Asia India should avail of. The events in West Asia are indeed moving fast, and the region is in flux after a long time of relative stability.

I am not sure India is up to the challenge just as yet to make the most of the opportunities and openings in West Asia. But considering that opportunities come only once in a long time, it is best if India scoops those opportunities now and consolidates our region simultaneously.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 17 Mar 2011 18:49

RajeshA wrote: RajeshA ji,
The pan subcontinentalism and the events thereafter seems to be closer than we think....
We spoke of opportunities in West Asia India should avail of. The events in West Asia are indeed moving fast, and the region is in flux after a long time of relative stability.

I am not sure India is up to the challenge just as yet to make the most of the opportunities and openings in West Asia. But considering that opportunities come only once in a long time, it is best if India scoops those opportunities now and consolidates our region simultaneously.

I so wish a government with aggressive mindset was incumbent in delhi.. the simultaneous wikileaks exposé might bring in the upa govt in trouble.. but will it spiral into a watergate? i guess not.. even if it does, is the alternative ready?

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 17 Mar 2011 18:50

West should 'go beyond' no-fly zone, US says

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 17 Mar 2011 19:15

libya might end up as the first Unkil-Dragon proxy war...
(pakistan is/might be the other)

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 17 Mar 2011 19:28

RajeshA wrote: We spoke of opportunities in West Asia India should avail of. The events in West Asia are indeed moving fast, and the region is in flux after a long time of relative stability.

I am not sure India is up to the challenge just as yet to make the most of the opportunities and openings in West Asia. But considering that opportunities come only once in a long time, it is best if India scoops those opportunities now and consolidates our region simultaneously.

Atri wrote: I so wish a government with aggressive mindset was incumbent in delhi.. the simultaneous wikileaks exposé might bring in the upa govt in trouble.. but will it spiral into a watergate? i guess not.. even if it does, is the alternative ready?

I do not think the time is ripe, yet. Indicisation of Indian mind is a prerequisite before we extend our reach.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Mar 2011 22:50

JE Menon wrote:No, people are being asked to show ID cards (employment) or passports... Rationale? The speculation is that Pak provision of soldiers or anti-riot support ... But this is only speculation. No verification possible at the moment. Most people are staying indoors, apparently. Please also note that a lot of people in the Bahraini police force etc are of Pakistani origin (especially Baluchi)... and clearly the rioters are not discriminating based on ethnicity but, it seems, on nationality.

Last night BBC had a medical doctor in a hospital saying that it was surrounded by foreigners and mentioned Pakistanis among locals and KSA.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Mar 2011 22:54

Suppiah wrote:http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... story.html#

Some gems

The UAE official warned that Gulf nations were “looking East” — to China, India and Turkey — for alternative security assistance.

The Gulf regimes have come to mistrust Obama, seeing him as a weak president who will sacrifice traditional allies in his eagerness to be “on the right side of history.”
...when you do that you become part of scrap heap of history...and destroy credibility for decades..

This is correct. UAE and others always look East for help from the early Protuguese ingress into the sea green sea and brought their European rivals after them. They were labelled pirates and chased along the coast and took shelter in Indian kingdoms.

The Crown Prince asked India to re-assert its traditional role now that Cold War was over. When India hesitated due to 90s financial crisis they went to US and Fifth Fleet Command was setup there.

Lets see how it plays out.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 17 Mar 2011 23:07

Ramanaji,

Don't remember which book but some thing on Christian and Islamic crusades talks about why And how Euorpe searched east so it can squeeze Islam

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 17 Mar 2011 23:12

ramana wrote:
The Gulf regimes have come to mistrust Obama, seeing him as a weak president who will sacrifice traditional allies in his eagerness to be “on the right side of history.”
...when you do that you become part of scrap heap of history...and destroy credibility for decades..
This is correct. UAE and others always look East for help from the early Protuguese ingress into the sea green sea and brought their European rivals after them. They were labelled pirates and chased along the coast and took shelter in Indian kingdoms.

US was never a traditional ally of the middle east.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 17 Mar 2011 23:23

ramana wrote: This is correct. UAE and others always look East for help from the early Protuguese ingress into the sea green sea and brought their European rivals after them. They were labelled pirates and chased along the coast and took shelter in Indian kingdoms.

The Crown Prince asked India to re-assert its traditional role now that Cold War was over. When India hesitated due to 90s financial crisis they went to US and Fifth Fleet Command was setup there.

Lets see how it plays out.

Ramana, I have been talking about this story for years on this thread now. They want a new protector. There is no one left but India. We are not ready yet though. We will be in a few years once the navy has expanded significantly.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 17 Mar 2011 23:28

JE Menon wrote:Situation Report from Bahrain*

Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are being stopped at ad hoc checkpoints and being thrashed and/or killed.

Mosques are being entered, and knives are used while vehicles outside are being vandalised.

Buildings where Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are resident are being entered and apartment by apartment search conducted, and in at least one building people were killed on the basis of that search and identification.

So far the police and outside troops are not arresting many of the rioters, simply telling them to go home. They are returning home and then setting off again the next day...

Ground situation is very bad, and got very bad very suddenly. It appears an escalation decision was taken by someone somewhere (probably Iran) in the last few days.

All the above violence apparently is done mainly by the Shia, although I would be a little reluctant to accept that in totality. Certainly retaliation is occurring.

*Source - Baluchi with Bahraini nationality, formerly in government service in security bureaucracy, migrated decades ago from Pakistan. (There is a slight twist here in this to avoid identification. The description is accurate, however).

One Indian security Guard was killed. Served in the Indian army for 18 years, fought in Kargil War. Died in Bahrain. Expats are targeted. My source in the royal family has invited his gardener to stay with him until things become better.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 17 Mar 2011 23:34

RajeshA wrote: We spoke of opportunities in West Asia India should avail of. The events in West Asia are indeed moving fast, and the region is in flux after a long time of relative stability.

I am not sure India is up to the challenge just as yet to make the most of the opportunities and openings in West Asia. But considering that opportunities come only once in a long time, it is best if India scoops those opportunities now and consolidates our region simultaneously.

Exactly. Our relations with west asia is purely business. Now bahrain could be having their kashmir moment - this is a great point to build lasting ties and GAIN more concessions from this.

Ksa is in need of a peaceful indo-pak border. US is pushing west asia to give india good deals.
India is using this to GROW! Look at budget policy and the economic deals that are signed between west asia and india.

This is about India gaining.

AKalam · Post by **AKalam** » 18 Mar 2011 00:15

http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/84279

Our Beloved Bloodied Libya--A No Fly Zone or a Spin Zone
by Mohamed Khodr
(Wednesday, March 16, 2011)

"If the U.N. Security Council does not immediately adopt and establish a No Fly Zone over Libya which will save the lives of countless Libyans and allow Gaddafi to continue his rule which will even be more ruthless and merciless against his people then the value and mission of the United Nations, which already suffers in the Arab world, as well the exhortation of the West that their goal is to free humanity from tyranny and establish democracies of the people, by the people, and for the people rings as hollow as the Declaration of Independence’s noble idealism “that all men are created equal”; when in practice it only rang for white men in power and not for oppressed."

While Gaddafi’s planes are flying to kill, Libyans are dying in the plains of the desert. Since oil is thicker than blood the Europeans and Americans are deliberating and divided on whether to save Libyans from an almost guaranteed mass slaughter by establishing a No Fly Zone to ground Gadaffi’s fighter jets that can determine the outcome of the conflict between a ruthless dictator and a people fighting for their freedom from his rule and the politics of oil.

Only two European nations thus far, France and Britain, have taken the principled and humanitarian position that an immediate No Fly Zone is necessary to stop Gadaffi’s slaughter of his people. Germany under the pretext of non military intervention in Libya has nevertheless sent thousands of its troops as part of NATO’s mission in Afghanistan where civilians on a daily basis are murdered by fighter jets and drones. Recently nine innocent boys were killed by NATO helicopters (March 2) who mistook the boys collecting firewood for insurgents. Yet the Conservative Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, who knows first hand of life under the brutal Soviet regime, by her opposition to the no fly zone, is surrendering and sacrificing the lives of innocent Libyans to a blood thirsty dictator thereby denying them the freedom they cry for. Merkel’s policy is not only hypocritical but goes against the German public’s support for a No Fly Zone.

Russia opposes establishing a No Fly Zone over Libya because it fears another Western intervention and perhaps occupation of an African nation having already invaded and occupied Iraq, Afghanistan, with enormous influence over Pakistan. It does not wish to see a western presence in Libya with its vast oil reserves, the largest in Africa.

Libyan oil is not only coveted but it has the highest quality “sweet” crude oil in the world making it easily refinable into gasoline and diesel due to its lower content of sulfur, an environmentally safer and cleaner oil to burn. Saudi oil has a higher content of sulfur and thus is more expensive to refine.

President Obama, as is customary in his execution of foreign policy, has shown weak leadership in the E.U. and the U.N. in establishing a No Fly Zone over Libya despite Congressional support, even from the Republican Party that has never shied away from U.S. foreign military interventions to project U.S. power worldwide. Although he’s demanded Gaddafi step down he’s taken no steps to facilitate the end of his dictatorial rule that has lasted for forty two years.

Perhaps Obama prefers the devil he knows to the freedom fighters he doesn’t know lest they be “Islamists” and spread their violent ideology to neighboring Algeria, another oil producing Arab nation, or even use their new found oil wealth to destabilize Saudi Arabia ad the Gulf nations.

When the U.S perceives its interests are threatened it doesn’t resort to the United Nations Security Council or seeks any approval from the E.U., NATO, Russia, or China for it to act unilaterally and militarily as it did in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and many other Asian, Central and South American nations.

Yet in Libya the U.S. is caught between exporting freedom, importing oil, and the private vociferous objections of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and Israel lest the No Fly Zone sets a precedent for interference in other Arab oil exporting nations whose populace may rise demanding their freedom, most importantly Saudi Arabia that unilaterally invaded Bahrain to shore up its Monarchy in contravention of the U.N. Charter, yet has not faced any U.S., E.U., Russian, or Chinese condemnation much less a U.N. Security Council Resolution akin to when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Obviously U.N. Security Council Resolutions led by the U.S. are passed and implemented depending on who the violators and victims are.

Imposing sanctions has been a historical joke and failure. They have not impacted any nation or leader to change course. From Cuba, to Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Iran, North Korea, and Gaza, the sanctions have only been a mild challenge to countries and corporations wishing to do business with these nations. Even Vice President Dick Cheney’s Halliburton oil company did business with Iran despite U.S. sanctions.

The U.N. imposed sanctions on Libya only to ignore the open violation of the sanctions by Greece as it sent a large oil transport ship bound to Gaddafi’s Tripoli only to be intercepted by Libya’s freedom fighters. i

The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to meet Wednesday, March 17, to discuss and possibly vote on establishing a No Fly Zone to save Libyans from the continuing slaughter and advancement of Gaddafi’s foreign mercenary forces who depend on air power to overwhelm the freedom fighters. Both the Libyan people and the entire Arab League have asked the U.N.S.C. to establish the no fly zone over Libya.

Yet Europe, the U.S. and Russia are playing the spin game blaming each other on the feasibility and potential outcome (s) of such a decision. Without strong U.S. leadership it’s difficult to ascertain the outcome of the U.N.S.C. vote.

To the Arab world Obama was late in recognizing and supporting the revolutions in Tunis and Egypt. To them it’s apparent that when U.S policy deals with the Arab world America’s position is that oil is thicker than Arab blood, but when it comes to Israel its support is immediate and without question. It is this hypocrisy and double standard that has lost America the Arab and Muslim street and accounts for the animosity they adopt against U.S. foreign policy, but not toward the American people or culture that they deeply admire and emulate.

Such an assessment was expressed by the Pentagon’s Defense Policy Council:

“Muslims do not hate our freedom, but rather they hate our policies. The overwhelming majority voice their objections to what they see as one-sided support in favor of Israel and against Palestinian rights, and the long-standing, even increasing, support for what Muslims collectively see as tyrannies, most notably Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan and the Gulf states. Thus, when American public diplomacy talks about bringing democracy to Islamic societies, this is seen as no more than self-serving hypocrisy.”

-- Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Strategic Communication, September 2004 (Also reported in Christian Science Monitor November 29, 2004

Until the U.S. can demonstrate a fair and balanced approach to the Arab and Muslim world that their lives, humanity, human rights, independence, sovereignty and freedom are as equal and valuable as that of Israelis and the rest of humanity, America’s oil based economy will be threatened and could lead the country into a spiral depression. The free Arab street will be unforgiving of America if it fails to protect the Libyan people from an eventual slaughter. A failure to establish a No Fly Zone will only empower Al Qaida and all extremist elements in the Muslim world that America is indeed an enemy of Islam and Muslims and can never be trusted. In the Arab and Muslim world the U.S. has long been on the wrong side of history in its blanket support of Israel’s military hegemony and occupation of Arab land and its self centered support of Arab Tyrants.

If the U.N. Security Council does not immediately adopt and establish a No Fly Zone over Libya which will save the lives of countless Libyans and allow Gaddafi to continue his rule which will even be more ruthless and merciless against his people then the value and mission of the United Nations, which already suffers in the Arab world, as well the exhortation of the West that their goal is to free humanity from tyranny and establish democracies of the people, by the people, and for the people rings as hollow as the Declaration of Independence’s noble idealism “that all men are created equal”; when in practice it only rang for white men in power and not for oppressed.

With Libya under tyrannical siege the world in the body of the United Nations once again faces a crossroad to destiny. Whether it has learned the lessons of history that Tyrants left to their will are prone to war and genocide, or whether it will meet the reasonability of its Charter and existence as phrased by President Harry Truman who said:

“The United Nations is designed to make possible lasting freedom and independence for all its members”

What is Libya’s fate? Is it freedom or tyranny? We will soon learn the monumental outcome that Obama and the United Nations will make in not only determining the future of Libya but for all those people who seek the freedom endowed to them by their Creator but are often denied by the powers that be.

Source:

Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Strategic Communication, September 2004
http://tinyurl.com/45nqax8

Source:

by courtesy & © 2011 Mohamed Khodr

http://www.businessinsider.com/libya-un ... cil-2011-3

A comment on above article:

juergenwahl on Mar 17, 2:39 PM said:
After the first Gulf War, Bush the First enticed the Iraqis to rise up against Saddam Hussein. Soon, 3/4 of the country had mobilised against Hussein, and it was widely believed that the tyrant and his henchmen were on their way out. However, the requested no-fly zone was not instituted in a timely manner, and Saddam's gunships proceeded to brutally subjugate the protesters. The same dismal process is being repeated under the administration of Carter the Second - aka Barak Barry Soetero Obama. It is quite clear to the Middle Easterners that the US is a strict supporter of commercial interests and that - regardless of rhetoric - human rights be damned! The brutal dictators may be b**t**ds, but as was said of Porfirio Rubirosa - they are our b*****ds!

If one looks at demographics, in 20 years, or so, this current action will likely be perceived by descendants of Westerners as a monumental mistake. It is not certain that an ephemeral, wish-washy, moral-relativistic society will be able to long withstand the onslaught of a resurgent, absolutist, radical Islamic society with astronomical birth rates.

As has often happened in the last 30 years, the US is again coming down upon the wrong side of the fence. It is too late to save the Libyan freedom fighters. They are thoroughly demoralised, beaten, and denied hope. All of this political posturing now in the Western media is little more than a face-saving maneuver by folks who hope that it will ultimately be an ass-saving maneuver for their sordid political careers. The Culture of Death is alive and well in America.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Mar 2011 00:51

Brihaspati. Agreed on the fact that its largely the lower rung/working class society where the trouble usually is - like in the UK & US.
UAE is notorious. My last visit to Abu Dhabi, was speaking to my afghan driver, he was saying relationship is becoming a lot better between emirati's and asians. But there is a lot of ignorance.
The emirati's in general are very materialistic "cool" etc. Saudi's think they are God's gift and better than every other arab.
Omani's treat Indians very well - the embassy has full power to help its citizens etc etc.

In Bahrain, its very open. I mean in general, the lower class labourers get the abuse - same in every country I suppose.. Indians in the Gulf have a lot of power. Even recently, a jeddah baseed RAPE was tellling me how scared govt are of certain foreigners - one of whom was Indian.
In Oman, you have a hindu given the title of sheikh - Khimji family.

Anyways, to some of your points. I think you've drawn some connections where they don't really exist.

Also about indian policy regarding west asia. I am quite shocked at how naïve you think GoI are and I don't believe you are adequately briefed on Indo-Israeli ties. Please look into it and speak to people who have been on govt sponsored trips to Israel.
You'll find your answers there.

Anyway, the way things are going, bollywood influence is pretty strong among the elite. Yindu/Persian influence is going to grow in that area. Yindu regardless - cultural similarities are extremely similar.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Mar 2011 02:02

Shyamd,
Over the past two months what broad indicators were there but missed that could have guided us as to the turmoil in North Africa and West Asia?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Mar 2011 02:20

ramana wrote:Shyamd,
Over the past two months what broad indicators were there but missed that could have guided us as to the turmoil in North Africa and West Asia?

Depends from country to country.

Libya was simmering since November. Gaddafi never liked to travel to Benghazi as its just a hotbed for rebellion traditionally and the relationship wasn't great for a while.

Tunisia fall was impetus ultimately.

Egyptian street has been simmering for years. The last elections was actually added impetus. There was always a widespread resentment of Mubarak and people were calling for revolution for a very long time. Its just Tunisia gave the impetus. Now Egypt is the middle and has traditionally influenced the rest of West Asia. Egypt sets the tone. US worked actively to dislodge mubarak. GCC/Arabs are very very very very angry at Obama for this. They feel betrayed.

Jan 25th movement is reciprocated in every country. Some had stronger opposition than others.

------------------------
The effect of these movements is that GCC are integrating. Al Sauds are strengthening their influence in certain quarters. IOL says Oman is now in the Pro-Saud camp (long story short) due to KSA power and certain issues. Oman is purging their Iranian influences in the government under pressure from Sauds

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Mar 2011 02:37

I wanted to hear the judgement in the last para. Glad I asked the question.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Mar 2011 02:46

That's just one part of the bigger story though. Another is Qatar are as powerful as ever and everyone is prostrating at his feet.

Lots happening. Sauds are extra paranoid now about Iran. Its unclear what's satyam and what's not.

Its unclear what effect there will be on indian relations.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Mar 2011 02:52

KSA-Iran is complex. KSA thought relying on TSP would hedge things. Found out those guys are haraami chalus and are under massa's thumb. Also maal is not for use westward. So KSA is worried.

Use of force in Bahrain shows that there is extreme worry about future. At same time shows that farsis are using proxies. That JEM report shows how things are being percieved. I expect some direct or indirect jhapad to TSP to show the GCC who is boss.

Cyrus is rising.

AKalam · Post by **AKalam** » 18 Mar 2011 03:17

In my personal opinion, the GCC Tinpots are being extremely short-sighted. Arab League countries, once out from under dictators/tyrants and more democratic, can provide more impetus for regional cooperation, centered around the geographical regional heart in Egypt, while the oil rich states can provide the financing of such an integration and consolidation. The former Tinpots could become business tycoons or sponsors of large and influential political parties in this new expanded regionwide democratic space. Without this integration, it will be hard for them to withstand the Shia threat coming from Iran, as Iran has oil, a good sized population and whole bunch of Arab shia groups in its pocket as well as Hamas for the time being.

Pakjabi dominated Pakistan Army, with its new-cooler options, want to be the defender of Ummah, I am sure, in this new scenario.

Turkey with the strongest economy want to increase their influence in this entire space as well.

Israel will probably need to change its long term policies IMHO to adapt to this evolving scenario.

India has the potential to redefine its relations with Islam and Muslims in general, which will definitely be a welcome news for subconitnental Muslims. This will be a step closer to the direction that RajeshA ji, I and others have discussed on and off the forum and developed in the ebook.

I would like to see India siding and batting with Arab League and side line Turkey, Iran and Pakistan Army. This new Indian Foreign policy direction will need readjustments in its relations with other countries in and outside this region as well, IMHO.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Mar 2011 03:19

I don't think so. Reliance on TSP is increasing in west asia. MI6 chief and british NSA were in town recently.
They are talkin about TSP mil in uae, saudi & bahrain, tribal areas ops etc with Kayani.

Basically TSP is over stretched. After all this galatta is over, can we see K boil? Where are LeT & Talebs gonna go? Or is the fight against tajik's a worthy battle?

I'll post more about level of TSP involvement later. It runs through a puki govt run organisation. Basically no terror in yindustan is likely, at least nothin serious. Pak is weaker than ever I feel.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Mar 2011 03:26

Akalam good insights. Arab sheikhs left to themselves are not too bad but when they have mullas and money they get nasty.

I think Israel will be come more Asian and less European in outlook. And that has its tectonic effects on Europe and US.

I agree Turki-TSP-PRC nexus is shaping up.

I dont share your view of Iran but could be due to my lack of seeing. Make me understand.

I think Iran is on its 500 year change cycle.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Mar 2011 03:30

^^ I have news about the Turki - TSP - PRC nexus. Its for real to a certain extent. Current head of MIT is close with Dostum and was trainin the Uighurs. Change of play is possible. Will explain tomorrow.

Aside from this, does anyone have sources as to top level Puki officers and their level of using Islam in their decision making. Is it strategic Paki interest or is it islamic interest. Its something that we need to work out.

US is being shunted out of intra-GCC affairs. GCC showed cold shoulder. US can't be dumped and iwll not be dumped due to the weapons and oil reliance.

Another point of discussion is the link with US economy. Conspiracy theory of 1970 redux? Inflate them out of the mess theory finds suppoort. Please discuss.

Night.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Mar 2011 03:46

ShyamD, I don't have sources but I try to use all my cognitive powers:Perception: Sensing, Intution,and Judgment: Thinking and Feeling.
And based on that look for data.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 18 Mar 2011 03:55

shyamd,
I did not say that GOI has no ties with Israel or that they are not deep. What I said was that GOI feels ashamed of its ties with Israel [and with the USA] and sticks out its neck to appear Islamophile where Arab sentiments are concerned. Otherwise the joint statement connecting "Palestine" with "no-fly-zone" would not have come out. On the ground even, Palestine is not the main driver of the North African uprisings. Some groups tend to have an attitude that whatever GOI says or does must be coming from some deep-seated fountain of wisdom. I do not belong to that group.

GOI may have its perceptions based on which it acts or speaks. It does not necessarily have to be based on an understanding of reality or the long term interests of the country. Then again, of course that "interest" is defined by the dominant ideology that manifests in power in GOI - so it can very well be that GOI serves an "interest" that is based on a perception that is in the interest of the ruling group and not necessarily of the overwhelming mass of the people. It is possible that the ruling GOI sees greater security in helping one authoritarian Islamist regime against a popular uprising against such regimes from various groups of other Islamists. My comments were about the danger of trusting that security is really enhanced by such alliances with any Islamist faction.

Things are always "unclear". When it appears more so - it is an indication that the long touted infinite wisdom of governments and regimes in power - is no wisdom after all. If so, then all the Arab group govs in power must have known and predicted the current spate of uprisings. Just being on power does not make any regime omniscient. All non-Arab govs like the Europeans or Americans and even GOI must have known that this was coming - wasn't it? If GOI is so knowledgeable and can foresee future so well, what steps did it take? To take steps you need to have a clear idea of what objective you have about the ME.

In the absence of any concrete moves, just as it is possible that GOI in its infinite wisdom has anticipated and taken counter measures that we know nothing about - it is also possible that GOI has anticipated nothing and taken no counter measures because it relies on keeping Islamists happy and thus secure an isolation of Pak hopefully. You have data to disprove or dismiss neither of these options. So why choose the omniscient option only?

Turki-TSP-PRC nexus was talked about long long ago. It was projected as the most likely outcome of the increasing Islamization of the political forces in Turkey. I think this prospect was dismissed at the time citing "secular" dynamics of Turkey.

ME politics, and Paki politics in particular - and jarnails especially in TSP think and use Islam tactically as well as strategically. Islamism is particularly suited to provide an intellectual framework that can appear to be well adapted for military purposes. Over time the military doctrine guiding the upper echelons will therefore have converged to a fusion of islamism and whatever strategic-western style functioning they picked up [whether by actual training in western academies or not]. Both adapted and modified into a fusion. There are ample indications of this, but should not be discussed online.

saip · Post by **saip** » 18 Mar 2011 03:56

UN has just passed no fly zone resolution. 10-0. China,Russia abstained. 3 more abstained. I wonder what india did?

Ameet · Post by **Ameet** » 18 Mar 2011 04:00

saip wrote:UN has just passed no fly zone resolution. 10-0. China,Russia abstained. 3 more abstained. I wonder what india did?

Voting for the resolution
Permanent members: United States, Britain, France
Non-permanent members:: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Colombia, Gabon, Lebanon, Nigeria, Portugal, South Africa

Abstentions
Permanent members: Russia, China
Non-permanent members: Germany, Brazil, India

saip · Post by **saip** » 18 Mar 2011 04:03

Hope it is not too late for the rebels. Gaddafi might launch final attack on Ben gazi tonight.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Mar 2011 04:06

UN - No Fly Zone. Yes, It will be staged from Egypt. Clinton made frantic calls to Tantawi and co. They've settled on which bases will be used for ops. 2 GCC countries will be involved. RSAF has already given its conditions for deployment.

Gaddafi has bought a lot of arms since Feb. His private jets are busy in Damascius and various locations in europe doing deals and picking up arms. This is going to be big. Bye BYE EUROPEAN ECONOMY!

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Mar 2011 04:11

Oh here we go UAE and Qatar

Five air forces set to attack Libya. Qaddafi threatens reprisals in Europe and ME

Shortly before the UN Security Council met Thursday, March 17, to discuss a no-fly zone resolution for Libya, Moscow promised Washington and other Western capitals not to apply a veto, debkafile's sources report exclusively. The US, British, French, UAE and Qatar air forces were on standby to attack Libyan army targets as soon as the resolution is passed. If attacked, Libya threatens retaliation against civilian and military targets in Europe and the Middle East, according to a statement from the Defense Ministry in Tripoli..
In Tunis, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton explained that a UN no-fly zone over Libya "would require the bombing of targets to take out the threat posed by Muammar Qaddafi's regime."

She spoke after Cairo rejected Washington's request for the use of Egyptian air bases to enforce the no fly zone against Libya and from which to launch US air attacks on Qaddafi's army. This too is disclosed by debkafile's exclusive sources.

Earlier Thursday, March 17, debkafile reported: Shortly before she left Egypt for Tunis Wednesday, March 16, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urgently asked the head of Egypt's military junta Field Marshal Mohammed Tantawi for permission to use Egyptian air bases for American military jets to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya. This is reported exclusively by debkafile's military and Washington sources.
Clinton told Tantawi she hoped for UN Security Council approval of the no-fly zone at its special session Thursday March 17. But this might not be enough to stop Muammar Qaddafi's advance and the US might have to resort to military action against his army. She did not elaborate on this. In Tunis, she said later that a UN no-fly zone over Libya would require the bombing of targets to take out the threat posed by Muammar Qaddafi's regime.

debkafile's sources say the White House is weighing the option of US aerial strikes for halting Qaddafi's march on Benghazi, Libya's second largest city and the primary rebel stronghold. The point of this action would be less to preserve rebel control of the city and more to keep Qaddafi from proclaiming his victory over the opposition to his rule and its foreign champions.
Another part of the plan under consideration in Washington would entail strikes against Qaddafi's government and military centers in Tripoli, the capital.
Tantawi promised Clinton to convene the Supreme Military Council Thursday before the Security Council session and inform her of its decision before she flies out of the Middle East.

According to our Washington sources, the Pentagon proposes to use the big Egyptian air base at El Mansoura in the Nile Delta for enforcing the no-fly zone and launching air attacks on Libya.

The Obama administration's U-turn on direct military intervention in Libya was discernable early Thursday morning (Wednesday night Washington time) in the remarks of America's UN Ambassador Susan Rice:
She said: "The US view is that we need to be prepared to contemplate steps that include, but perhaps go beyond, a no-fly zone, at this point, as the situation on the ground has evolved and as a no-fly zone has inherent limitations in terms of protection of civilians at immediate risk."

By "the situation on the ground," she was referring to Qaddafi's three army columns, reinforced with thousands of fighters from the Warefla tribal federation, which are rapidly advancing on Benghazi.

debkafile's military sources report that the Saadi and Khamis brigades, the latter being the 32nd Libyan Brigade most of whose troops move in APCs, are approaching the last rebel stronghold.
They are backed by an artillery brigade and a tank brigade. From the west, Libyan missile ships have blockaded Benghazi.
Our sources add that Libyan army units based in Benghazi went into action ahead of the main body's arrival. Those troops were caught by the onset of the Libyan uprising on Feb. 15 in rebel-held territory. They stood by and waited for Qaddafi's orders to go into battle.
Another sign of President Obama's strong inclination to undertake military action beyond a no-fly zone came from the deployment Monday, March 14 of the nuclear attack submarine USS Providence off the Libyan coast.

In the past decade, this submarine has often been called in to support US missile attacks, usually with Tomahawk, whether in 2003 in Iraq or in Afghanistan.

The US fleet present off the Libyan coast includes also the marine assault ship USS Kearsarge, which is a helicopter carrier; the Marine Amphibious Transport Docks vessel and the missile destroyers USS Barry, USS Ponce and USS Mason.
The American aircraft carrier USS Enterprise, now near the Red Sea, could also be called in for an American missile attack on Libya.

Ameet · Post by **Ameet** » 18 Mar 2011 05:17

Kuwait says navy heading to Bahrain soon: ambassador

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/ ... NR20110317

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Mar 2011 07:39

the EU has some good looking gear but no decisiveness and cannot find their a$$ with two hands as vina would say
the idea of 5 arab AFs staging a joint air war in libya is fanciful...these AFs are for show and regime protection than fighting a real war, but they can march and carry the fig leaf flag of arabs helping arabs
so as usual sher khan will have to throw in resources to make this work, if they want to make this work.

methinks quickest way would be turn libyan army units with massive bribes in US$ (free since US is note printing everyday anyway) and target the regime's "joker pack" both with air attacks and contractors...keep them on the run.

also put it out that all irregular pan-african merceneries found will be dealt very harshly by a 'peoples court' and 'war crimes tribunal'

a showpiece B52 strike on the leading libyan army brigade on the benghazi road would give them pause and maybe destroy most of fixed assets