Libya No Fly Zone - The Plan Plus Update on Bahrain
Libya
Our readers will know that Middle East Analysis has been fairly accurate so far on the Libyan situation. We accurately predicted that Gaddafi would use his Air force decisively to win this war with the rebels unless a No Fly Zone was implemented.
The French military have been busy planning strikes in Libya as part of the No Fly Zone implementation.
Gaddafi's air assets - He has Mig 21's, Mig 23s,a number of Sukhoi 22's and Galib trainer aircraft armed with Air to Surface rockets that have been in use in current operations. All in all, Gaddafi has only 20 air planes that are in working conditions. Out of the 4 Mirages that he had, 2 were flown to Malta as pilots defected.
In addition to this, Gaddafi has a decent sized helicopter fleet, which are estimated to be around 40. These compromise Chinooks (which incidentally played a signifcant and decisive role in the recent offensive on rebel held cities) that were recently upgraded in Italy as well as a number of Russian attack helicopters. Many of the pilots appear to be from the Syrian Air Force (sent by Bashaar Al Assad as part of a long standing pact that is in place between the 2 countries).
The Plan - Our sources confirm to us that the plan is for Western air forces to destroy Gaddafi's Air Force fleet in the initial strikes. This is due to the importance of the aircraft in striking rebel positions in the last week. This would be key to establishing the no fly zone. The US generals early on had hinted that a No Fly Zone would also mean taking out Libyan Surface to Air Missile sites - this maybe a difficult part of establishing the No Fly Zone but is very much possible.
We speculate that UK would utilise bases in Cyprus and Sicily. The US appears to be interested in using Egyptian air bases to launch their raids. While the French will probably decide to deploy from the South of France which isn't too far from the Libyan cities.
News reports also sight 2 British Nimrod aircraft that were due to be scrapped this month have been pressed into service.
A crucial test for the coalition force would be to control and coordinate this operation as they have done in the past.
Future issues - Another worry in Washington is that Gaddafi has recruited mercenaries from tribes in Mali that are close to the AQIM area of operations. So the questions being asked is, what will happen once these tribal mercenaries return to their home in Mali with their weapons? Will they swell the AQIM (Al Qaeda in the Maghreb) ranks? As a result, there is a worry that the enitre North Africa may become destabilised. Washington has begun to meet closely with Algerian counter terror advisors, to consult and cooperate on these issues.
Egypt arming Libya rebels, Wall Street Journal reports
Egypt's military has begun shipping arms over the border to Libyan rebels with Washington's knowledge, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
Quoting U.S. and Libyan rebel officials, the newspaper said the shipments were mostly of small arms such as assault rifles and ammunition.
It appeared to be the first case of an outside government arming the rebel fighters, the newspaper said.
Rebels have been losing ground for days in the face of an advance by forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi.
The rebels have, however, been buoyed by the decision on Thursday by the United Nations Security Council to authorise air strikes in an attempt to curb Gaddafi's forces.
The Journal reported that Egyptian weapons transfers began "a few days ago" and are continuing, according to a senior U.S. official.
"There's no formal U.S. policy or acknowledgement that this is going on," said the official. But "this is something we have knowledge of".
There was no official Egyptian confirmation of the shipments, the newspaper said. The Unied States is a major ally and supplier of military aid to Egypt.
"We know the Egyptian military council is helping us, but they can't be so visible," said Hani Souflakis, a Libyan businessman in Cairo who has been acting as a rebel liaison with the Egyptian government since the uprising began, according to the newspaper.
"Weapons are getting through," said Souflakis. "Americans have given the green light to the Egyptians to help. The Americans don't want to be involved in a direct level, but the Egyptians wouldn't do it if they didn't get the green light."
A spokesman for the rebel government in Benghazi said arms shipments had begun arriving to the rebels but declined to specify where they came from, the Journal said. (Writing by Giles Elgood; editing by Andrew Roche)
