2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 21 Mar 2011 19:08

Another point that worried people should consider is how harmful and very stable chemical compounds are concentrated in their food intake vs small concentrations (below health risk levels) of radioactive Iodine. The former never goes away. And while at it also include medication taken as preventive measures for common ailments and lifestyle diseases.

GuruPrabhu · Post by **GuruPrabhu** » 21 Mar 2011 19:26

Lalmohan wrote:amit - what is the half life of a lalchick?

It is given by T_(lalchick) = 2*pi*T_(P-L-RM)/N_PC,

where T_(P-L-RM) is the time it takes RaaketMard to fly from Pindi to Lawhore, per N_PC kg of pindi chana.

If said pindi chana has been lightly enriched by 3-5%, then N_LEPC should be inserted. If enrichment at >90% is employed, RM explodes at blast-off and T_(lalchick) remains indeterminate.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 21 Mar 2011 19:43

GuruPrabhu wrote:
The argument is called nuclear decay ( half life meaning that exponential decay meaning that half the substance go away while remaining half does the work before half of that go away). Sort of automatic clean-up. All this spinach-milk, gajar-mooli brouhaha will be gone in no time at all.

NO problem guru. I take all India spinach milk gajar mooli etc which are more radioactive than Japanese items . happy?

Carbon, otoh, once extracted from the depths of the earth does not automatically return to the depths. ( never heard of carbon sink and what this argument about carbon to do with nuclear reactor btw.)

I don't have issues .Do you??

As for second part that is not in the scope of this thread. Could discuss in appropriate thread.

Saar, please pick the thread of choice. I would like to be enlightened about reversibility of carbon extraction.

Do the honor. Why don't you start a thread, if not existing. Will talk about it in detail.

GuruPrabhu · Post by **GuruPrabhu** » 21 Mar 2011 19:49

Chanakya,

Your replies are getting colorful etc. This thread started with "reversibility" which you brought into the discussion. If you wish to seriously discuss reversibility, we can do so. Chernobyl has been "reversed" by now. That is the point. No one knows how to reverse melting glaciers. That is the second point. All of these points are components of what is a "safe" technology for power generation.

I don't have the need to start a thread on reversibility alone. You offered to discuss the point in an appropriate thread, and I agreed. Let us just do that and avoid purple font.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 21 Mar 2011 19:54

guruprabhu-ji; many thanks flow in your direction from my liquid sodium torus
i fear that lalchix are more likely to create meltdown than fallout, regardless of half_life
although always happy to find remaining isotopes in my vegetable collection

i accept that fission energy has many drawbacks, but there isn't much else that can match it for sustained high output of power... the demand for which keeps accelerating upwards... what is needed is more investment in R&D on safety, not knee jerk abandonment

GuruPrabhu · Post by **GuruPrabhu** » 21 Mar 2011 20:29

Lalmohan wrote:i accept that fission energy has many drawbacks, but there isn't much else that can match it for sustained high output of power... the demand for which keeps accelerating upwards... what is needed is more investment in R&D on safety, not knee jerk abandonment

Everything has drawbacks, but they go on. Bhopal did not result in a shutdown of the chemical industry. Airplanes crash every year and yet airlines are not shut down. Trains crash every year and yet railways are not shut down. Overpasses collapse yet construction of new overpasses continues. Etc Etc.

The distinguishing argument in the case of nuke power (that is raised by some) is irreversibility. I don't believe that it holds much water either. My only conclusion is that nuke power invokes the fear of the invisible in folks. Why else is 90% of the media coverage focused on an aspect of the Japan tsunami that has killed 0% of the total casualties?

We should be congratulating the Japanese nuke industry for their professional conduct under the media glare. Bravo!

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 21 Mar 2011 20:39

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiap ... index.html

(CNN) -- Japan's alarm over radiation found in spinach and milk has also raised questions, given that little is known about its effect on the human body.

While some tests have been done on animals, sparse information is available on how eating contaminated food affects people in the short and long term.

The main reason is the lack of research subjects, limited to those affected by the 1945 nuclear attacks on the Japanese cities of NagasDr. James Cox, an oncology professor at the MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, said he believes the radiation levels measured in these products pose a "nonexistent" immediate risk to humans, and "very low" long-term risk.

Still, he concedes that "radiation doses ingested through food is really very poorly understood."

Dr. James Cox, an oncology professor at the MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, said he believes the radiation levels measured in these products pose a "nonexistent" immediate risk to humans, and "very low" long-term risk.

Still, he concedes that "radiation doses ingested through food is really very poorly understood."

While studies were conducted in Japan after World War II, experts today are cautious to draw definitive conclusions on how the consumption of radiation-tainted food after the atomic bombings affected people. That is mostly because the research didn't focus as much on the thyroid gland and the presence of specific radioactive isotopes in food.

Iodine-131 differs from regular iodine because it is radioactive. It collects in the human thyroid gland because the thyroid readily absorbs iodine and assumes the iodine-131 strain is like any other form, said Cox, an expert on the effects of radiation on the survivors of Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

The thyroid produces some of the body's most important hormones, which play a role in functions such as food metabolism and regulation of body temperature. To fight off iodine-131, doctors typically prescribe iodine pills that fill up the thyroid so there's no more room and force the iodine-131 out of the body.

Residents -- including many children -- drank milk contaminated with Chernobyl-produced iodine-131, said Cox. And experts believe this milk consumption contributed to cases of cancer, though it is notable that radiation contaminated other types of food as well.

The lack of access to iodine pills is less of a problem now. Cox says it might not be a bad idea for residents near Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to take these pills as a precaution, despite their potentially harmful side effects, including allergic skin reactions and kidney damage.

"It might be a prudent thing to do, especially for the kids right around Fukushima," he said.

Iodine's eight-day half-life -- the time it takes for a radioactive isotope to decay by half -- means that in eight days, half of its radioactivity level will disappear. By contrast, cesium-137 has a half life of about 30 years, so it lingers for much longer. But even less is known on the impact of cesium-137, among other isotopes, when consumed by humans in food.

Experts do know that direct radiation exposure (without a conduit like food or water) can be deadly. Large doses of airborne exposure can cause death as soon as a few days. Lower degrees of exposure may result in heightened risk for developing cancer later in life, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Generally, health risks from radiation exposure can range from skin reddening to cancer and death, according to the CDC. Damage depends on the type of radiation, how much radiation the body has absorbed, the way the person was exposed to the radiation, and the length of time a person was exposed.

As for the consumption of radiation-contaminated food, Cox said the studies indicate that cancer rates are higher for those who eat and drink such products than for the general population. Yet it is hard to draw hard-and-fast conclusions, especially since those who might drink contaminated milk around Chernobyl, for instance, might be exposed to radiation in other ways as well.

There's little evidence, too, that consuming radiation-contaminated food will cause genetic mutations that can be passed on to one's offspring.

"There's always an assumption that there would be a genetic risk, but that has never been shown in humans," said Cox.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 21 Mar 2011 21:12

Yakuza to the Rescue

The worst of times sometimes brings out the best in people, even in Japan’s “losers” a.k.a. the Japanese mafia, the yakuza. Hours after the first shock waves hit, two of the largest crime groups went into action, opening their offices to those stranded in Tokyo, and shipping food, water, and blankets to the devastated areas in two-ton trucks and whatever vehicles they could get moving. The day after the earthquake the Inagawa-kai (the third largest organized crime group in Japan which was founded in 1948) sent twenty-five four-ton trucks filled with paper diapers, instant ramen, batteries, flashlights, drinks, and the essentials of daily life to the Tohoku region. An executive in Sumiyoshi-kai, the second-largest crime group, even offered refuge to members of the foreign community—something unheard of in a still slightly xenophobic nation, especially amongst the right-wing yakuza. The Yamaguchi-gumi, Japan’s largest crime group, under the leadership of Tadashi Irie, has also opened its offices across the country to the public and been sending truckloads of supplies, but very quietly and without any fanfare.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 21 Mar 2011 21:25

Over 21,000 dead or missing in quake-hit japan: police

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The death toll from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that hit northeastern and eastern Japan and the number of those reported missing came to a combined total of 21,911 as of noon Monday, the National Police Agency said.

The number of deaths reported in a total of 12 prefectures came to 8,649, while people reported by their relatives to be missing climbed to 13,262 in six prefectures. Police have identified about 4,080 bodies, including 2,990 returned to their families, the agency said.

A total of about 340,000 evacuees, including those who fled from the vicinity of the troubled nuclear reactors in Fukushima Prefecture, are now staying at some 2,070 shelters set up by 16 prefectures.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 21 Mar 2011 21:40

And Life goes one...

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Mar 2011 22:46

abhishek_sharma, Guru_Prabhu:
,
NYTimes is a reputable news paper but wrt to, whether it is biased or not, it had an article, which reported, post Diwali terrorists bomb blasts in New Delhi as (NO I am not making that up) "religious' riots which routinely takes place in every part of India. (I did write to NYTimes but the that reporter kept reporting from NY times for a long time).

All:

In any case, my point was "2 + 2" , even if it reported as "LARGE TWOS" by NY times, or presented with reporters of CNN, prominently displaying their dosimeters (and hazmat suits), and confusing everyone with their expert opinions (2 is 2000 millis or 2000000 micros) ..still does not become 5000.

That NY times story (which I also linked) was irresponsible, specially where it gave out the numbers of thousands of deaths without mentioning that the number was due to Tsunami/quake and not due to radiation leak.

Other stories (Eg one from daily mail posted by me earlier and later by others) ...with all qualifiers like" "high/serious/dangerous/can kill" etc.. should be understood (at least by responsible people) in quantitative terms.

And the "experts" are NOT talking in vacuum..I remember all the sensational stories about TMI.. but still with all the studies which has taken place, when all is said and done, number of deaths (including cancer in local population in last 30 years) attributed to solely radiation is ZERO... (Nuclear reactors have been in use all over the world for many decades, so safety data is not really a CT theory)

The same remains true, for now, with Japan. As Guru Prabhu pointed out, with whole trains being washed out, with tens of thousands victims of Tsunamui and Earhtquake, it is highly irresponsible to keep fixated on dosimeter wearing Anderson Cooper's type proclamations...Chances that a person will die of radiation (if he/she indeed gulps about 1500 TONS of that tainted milk which is being watched anyway) is rather remote. but then why let facts interfere with narrative???/sigh/

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Mar 2011 22:55

.. what this argument about carbon to do with nuclear reactor btw

May be, that coal power generators give about 100 times more RADIOACTIVITY (per kwh) than nuclear power generators .. (see discussion in India Nuke Thread).. Not to mention that CO2 green house effect is indeed much more serious and longterm.

BTW where do you think all the heat which keeps the interior of earth hot, and makes coal, comes from? (Yes, it is from radio-activity not unlike those fuel rods which are presenting cooling problems).

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Mar 2011 23:24

Ramana and others:

One thing we should understand, (even if MSM keep emphasizing the word 'NUCLEAR' and keep associating NPP with Nuclear bombs) the difference between Hiroshima and NPP (Chernobyl accident etc). It is very irresponsible to associate one with other.

FWIW, but I hope this is useful:

- . Hiroshima, primarily destruction was due to explosion (>10KT), fire etc. (98% deaths - best estimations give about 2% deaths due to cancer because of radioactivity)

- Chernobyl, OTOH, spewed out 100X radioactivity (compared to Atomic Bomb), but explosive power was only about 0.01 KT.. Majority of deaths (about 50) were due to high radiation absorbed by fire-fighters etc... (Rest, a few thousands - over 20 odd years) For perspective the radiation measured >10,000,000 milirems/hr - compared with 50-250 mRem normally allowed by NPP workers for a yearly dose - Ld50 dose is 300,000-450,000 mRem)

(Numbers put in this way are more helpful IMO)

Nuclear bomb is different than power plant!

The difference between Chernobyl and Japan NPP should also be understood:

Chernobyl - about 50 tons of radioactive material spewed out ... NO evacuation for days, people keep eating radioactive food.

Japan NPP - Will know accurate data after some time, but we do know, prompt evacuation, low radiation activity (thousands of time smaller than Chernobyl etc..).

Hope this helps.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Mar 2011 23:53

chaanakya wrote:http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiap ... index.html

I know all about the reputation of CNN but still this article, IMO, is quite sloppy, irresponsible and misleading. For example claim that " ...t little is known about its[radiation's] effect on the human body" is quite unhelpful. After all we are using radioactive isotopes in medicine for treatment as well as diagnostic purpose, xrays in dentists offices, CT-scan, Te-Scan, Barium enema etc..in hospitals,... not to mention scanning devices in airports. Post TMI many official and non official studies studied this...I remember Argonne National Lab's library had racks and racks of raw data of victims medical records...No we don't know everything but then we don't know everything about anything.

Anyway, any good text book on nuclear physics (or modern physics), or radiation medicine will be more useful than this CNN article.

Also check out (though link is already posted) ,
http://mitnse.com/2011/03/20/fission-pr ... radiation/
http://mitnse.com/2011/03/16/radiation- ... fukushima/

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Mar 2011 23:59

GuruPrabhu wrote: Why else is 90% of the media coverage focused on an aspect of the Japan tsunami that has killed 0% of the total casualties?

We should be congratulating the Japanese nuke industry for their professional conduct under the media glare. Bravo!

Indeed!
BTW, this form an email summarizes my thoughts too.

( [per].. most observers in nuclear industry and regulation consider the measures taken by Japanese authorities to be exceptionally good...

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Mar 2011 00:53

]Just a small example.. (I could have picked one out many others) of sloppiness of CNN's report.. posted earlier by Chaankya..

Iodine's eight-day half-life

Half life of I-135 (which spews out about 3 times as much as I-131 from the fission products in that kind of accident) is about 7 hours .

I-131's half life is longer, (and thus more likely to be found in milk for days after the incident) and is indeed 8 days.. and it does linger around a little longer even though it is produced in a lesser amount than I-135.

... And then there is I-129 .. half life of millions year..that indeed will hang around for long time (fortunately it is produced in a very minute quantity).

(This is why I said before, most of the venting products in steam - or in case of a partial melt-down- gases like Xe, are dangerous only for a short time)

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Mar 2011 01:10

Suppiah wrote:An interesting graphical picture on radiation

http://xkcd.com/radiation/

And yes, eating 1 banana is more radiation than living right next to a normal nuclear power plant..for a whole year!

And yes if Dept. of Home Land Security report to be believed, 99% of all the false alarms due to radiation monitors triggering at the US borders are/were due to things like trucks of bananas and kitty-litter among other things.

(Check out "Radiation Portal Monitor" in Wikipedia or other sources..)

First generation RPMs often rely on PVT scintillators for gamma counting. They provide very little information on energy of detected photons, and as a result, they were criticized for their inability to distinguish gammas originating from nuclear sources from gammas originating from a large variety of benign cargo types that naturally emit radioactivity, including bananas, cat litter, granite, porcelain, stoneware, etc.[1] Those Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials, called NORMs account for 99% of nuisance alarms.[2]

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Mar 2011 02:40

Sanku wrote:http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/to ... me=topNews

WHO warns of "serious" food radiation in disaster-hit Japan

"It's a lot more serious than anybody thought in the early days when we thought that this kind of problem can be limited to 20 to 30 kilometres ... It's safe to suppose that some contaminated produce got out of the contamination zone."

Something juicy form the above story... just how "Serious"..(Just read a few lines below the above quote)

"It would have to be drunk for a whole year in order to accumulate to one millisievert,"

Of course, to reach Ld50 dose ( from 1 mSv/yr) you have to be drunk for, oh about 3000 to 4500 years. ..
(See the careful editing of the story and words like "warning" and "serious" in the headline ....... if you read the story, really read it... in quantitative terms... you would find that the crux of the danger is described as ".. "What I want the people to understand is that their levels are not high enough to affect humans. Eating these products just a couple of times would not affect people's health."...)

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Mar 2011 03:25

Sanku wrote:
I believe that the current events have unequivocally shown that the experts can not be trusted in the matter at all, having shown that they do not have the moral strength to function objectively under a strong conflict of interest issue.....

That I believe is resulting in much khujli as visible by hand-wringing of many experts in public domain (numerous articles on blaming everyone for sensationalizing, when the reality is that the media is reporting very little since they are being given very little information to report)

A particularly telling news article (IMVHO) is as follows (a few days old), which outlines how the Japanese are coming around to accepting the full extent of issues.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... eople.html

I believe we will continue to hear of the real extent of issues involved over many weeks to come.

That particularly telling article, if you really look at the previous posts of mine, has actually been posted and linked by me.... just a handful of posts before yours...

Gentle readers, please do read the article. (with of without my comments on that ).. The basic logic there is:
A) Since an accident which kills few people must be defined as "serious" (and level 5)

The level is (now ) 5
C) So there are radiation deaths... (even if there are no reports of death)

Please read the carefully crafted sentence:

Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency admitted that the disaster was a level 5, which is classified as a crisis causing 'several radiation deaths' by the UN International Atomic Energy.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Mar 2011 03:47

Sanku wrote:Ouch, more ouch

http://www.thewesternstar.com/Canada--- ... +Canada%3A

Japan agency says crippled nuclear plant operator missed inspections before disaster struck

Among the machinery the utility missed were backup generators, pumps and other parts of cooling systems that the tsunami later swamped, leading to the plant's overheating and the release of radioactive gas.
Skeletons galore....

Ouch..Ouch... but it so happens that I have actually seen the inspection report..and if you were reading this dhaga,... I have actually posted the pdf link of that inspection! here in brf!! (so you are welcome to read it instead of taking "thewesternstar.com" at their word. (Just look/search for my posts

- it is posted on March 17)... The report was one of my basis to get my self familiarized with what kind of pools they had and how much stuff was there to do my calculation..

BTW lot of stuff is available to public (or given to others when asked) at Tepco and other sites (that's why I am amazed at the Japanese.. my local utility company's web site did not even remain current after a much smaller power outage)..With all the chaos it is understandable that there will be some glitches in information sharing but they are not hiding anything... at least not according to any US expert I have heard from.

****
In any case if any one is curious: I don't think that inspection, even if was done "correctly" would have mattered much. One key factor the experts are talking about, and I am sure years of research will go into it, was the design criteria for Tsunami walls ..Upper limit, it was designed for, was for 5-6m of Tsunami -- actual Tsunami wave was about 12 m at the plant)
Hth

amit · Post by **amit** » 22 Mar 2011 06:13

^^^^^^

AmberG, thanks for a series of very informative posts. (This of course includes your earlier posts as well).

- Amit

amit · Post by **amit** » 22 Mar 2011 06:16

Lalmohan wrote:amit - what is the half life of a lalchick?

Aha Lal Mullah great pooch!

However, I see GuruPrabhu has already give the scientific breakdown of the half life. To my untrained eye the half life of a lalchick is directly proportional to the number of blood vessels you're willing to burst in order to generate ambient noise!

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 22 Mar 2011 09:58

This site gives a vivid picture of the devastation in Japan. You can scroll over the pictures to see side by side the view before and after the disaster.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan ... eafter.htm

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 22 Mar 2011 10:24

Physicists discover a new fuel for 7 stage spin cycle.

BANANA.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 22 Mar 2011 10:41

As has been said, with the live fuel sitting out in the open for many days (3-4) are partially uncovered for remaining part of the week+ time, as well the reactor containment breach(s) the bad news despite all the attempts to underplay the magnitude of the disaster will keep coming in, unfortunately we will find the full extent of damage due to radiation poisoning etc only over a 10-20 year period as the information held back slowly leaks out.

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/japan-tepco- ... 698-2.html

Japan: TEPCO worried over high radiation levels

Plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) on Monday said radiation at much higher levels than normal was found in the Pacific Ocean near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, which may have been related to rain in the area and the hosing of the reactors with seawater.

Some nuclear experts however questioned whether TEPCO might be dumping some of the seawater used to cool the Daiichi reactor cores and spent fuel pools back into the Pacific.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 22 Mar 2011 10:53

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2011/03/2 ... y-experts/

Japan's Nuclear Disaster Raises Concerns About Contamination of the Global Food Chain

There are two risks: direct contamination from the radioactive fallout, like water supplies; or indirectly, when consumers eat foods from livestock consuming contaminated grasses or feed.

"I would say it's going to be a long time before you'll be able to eat either animals raised in that area or plants," says University of California Berkeley plant biologist Peggy Lemaux.

......................

"We won't know until there are measurements taken on terrestrial environments, grasses, plant material and in coastal environments to see how those radioactive materials are working their way into the food chain," says marine biologist David Caron.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/health/2011/03/2 ... z1HIydB4kj

vina · Post by **vina** » 22 Mar 2011 10:56

Yawn.. After reading the shrill "inevitable" boom and catastrophe at Fukushima peddled by the Doomsday Prophets in this thread (Salman Rushdie had a character called Elaine Dumsday in one of his novels, dont remember which, who comes to Cochin..great author Salman Rushdie) , I was cowering and shivering in my Dhoti and was wearing a lead lined cap all these days. Now we hear that things are stable and there has been no kaboom, and that you have to drink milk and eat bananas for 3500 years from those radiation fallout areas to fall really sick ?

Why even the lalchix would have loved such a deal and stuck on with the Lal Masjid instead of raiding the Led Rips Massage Parlor!

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 22 Mar 2011 11:04

vina wrote:Yawn.. After reading the shrill "inevitable" boom and catastrophe at Fukushima peddled by the Doomsday Prophets in this thread (Salman Rushdie had a character called Elaine Dumsday in one of his novels, dont remember which, who comes to Cochin..great author Salman Rushdie) ,

Oh no the doomsday is already here, it did not look as colourful as were being expected by the simple minded, but make no mistakes its here.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 22 Mar 2011 11:15

Sanku wrote:
Oh no the doomsday is already here, it did not look as colourful as were being expected by the simple minded, but make no mistakes its here.

Ah but resorting to polemics and being weak on facts is not helpful to your cause sir. Doomsday might as well have appeared on 26th April 1986 in Chernobyl. But as Twain has said - 'the report of my death was exagerrated'

amit · Post by **amit** » 22 Mar 2011 11:21

Sanku wrote:http://ibnlive.in.com/news/japan-tepco- ... 698-2.html

Japan: TEPCO worried over high radiation levels

Plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) on Monday said radiation at much higher levels than normal was found in the Pacific Ocean near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, which may have been related to rain in the area and the hosing of the reactors with seawater.

Some nuclear experts however questioned whether TEPCO might be dumping some of the seawater used to cool the Daiichi reactor cores and spent fuel pools back into the Pacific.

I sometimes wonder if Sanku Ji even reads the stuff he posts with gusto!

From this same Doomsday article:

Radioactive iodine in the sea samples was 126.7 times the allowed limit, while cesium was 24.8 times above the limit, Kyodo news agency reported.
That still posed no immediate danger, TEPCO said.
"It would have to be drunk for a whole year in order to accumulate to one millisievert," a TEPCO official said, referring to the standard radiation measurement unit.
People are generally exposed to about 1 to 10 millisieverts each year from background radiation caused by substances in the air and soil.

Maybe a bit of dunking in sea required?

And yes, FoxNews is the new paragon of reliability!

Added later: I see AmberG has addressed the point about drinking sea water for one year here. The post was addressed to (drum rolls, please) Sanku ji.

So I see he's repeating himself.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Mar 2011 12:47

grey smoke, white smoke
holy smokes!
fukushima sounds more like the papal election at the vatican these days!!
quite apart from the nuclear community, the financial markets seem to have lost interest in fukushima already... now thats telling you something about doomsday prophecies
i dare say that the good denizens of tripoli will be subjected to more radiation over the next few days from DU munitions than the folks in Japan

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 22 Mar 2011 14:09

http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews ... =0&sp=true

Special Report - Fuel storage, safety issues vexed Japan plant

REUTERS

Along with questions about whether Tokyo Electric officials waited too long to pump sea water into the plants and abandon hope of saving them, the utility and regulators are certain to face scrutiny on the fateful decision to store most of the plant's spent fuel rods inside the reactor buildings rather than invest in other potentially safer storage options.

"I've long thought that the whole system is crap," said Taro Kono, a Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker and a longtime critic of nuclear power who sees the need for a government-directed reorganization of Tokyo Electric.

"We have to go through our whole nuclear strategy after this," Kono said. "Now no one is going to accept nuclear waste in their backyards. You can have an earthquake and have radioactive material under your house. We're going to have a real debate on this."

When the quake hit, almost 4,000 uranium fuel assemblies were stored in deep pools of circulating water built into the highest floor of the Fukushima reactor buildings, according to company records. Each assembly stands about 3.5 meters high and even a decade after use emits enough radiation to kill a person standing nearby.

The spent radioactive fuel stored in the reactors represented more than three times the amount of radioactive material normally held in the active cores of the six reactors at the complex, according to Tokyo Electric briefings and its presentation to the IAEA.

David Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer with the U.S.-based Union of Concerned Scientists, said the spent fuel was vulnerable because it was protected only by the relatively "flimsy" outer shell of the reactors and reliant on a single, pump-driven cooling system.

"It's a recipe for disaster and that disaster is now unfolding in Japan," Lochbaum said.

And it goes ON and ON and ON.

The below is the same sort of nudge-nudge wink-wink and "you dont need to know" currently on display in terms of India and trying to shove the EXACTLY same philosophies down our throat

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 22 Mar 2011 16:05

Yet another new issue develops (yahoo ticker) --

SPENT FUEL POOL NEARS BOILING POINT. Crews resume work at troubled Fukushima Dai-ichi plant after smoke triggers an evacuation. A new concern has emerged: A storage pool holding 2,000 tons of older, spent nuclear fuel is heating up, forcing emergency teams to divert water sprayed on other reactors there. If the pool begins to boil, radioactive steam could spew out.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 22 Mar 2011 16:12

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/busin ... ain&st=cse

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Mar 2011 19:18

Again basic issue of why spent fuel is stored in such massive amounts is bypassed. The tone of US media is the Japanese did it to themselves. Don't blame the inherent flaws in LWR designs. They have defense in depth which all failed!

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Mar 2011 19:34

amit wrote:^^^^^^

AmberG, thanks for a series of very informative posts. (This of course includes your earlier posts as well).

- Amit

Amit, thanks.

As someone posted "Life goes on", there are a few Japanese physicists in this week's APS (American Physical Society) meeting in Dallas. Some still made the trip. Things are bad, but there is very little panic there. They were amazed (understatement) at all the "nuke disaster" talk and incredible irresponsibility of reporters here (in US).

One item I learned, that in one accident (South America) of radiation leakage, some (about 10) people needed medical attention (nothing major), but mass hysteria made hundreds (or thousands) of people flooding the hospitals with radiation sickness symptoms. (including "rashes"!.. No such cases in Japan.

Another Item: I almost did a double take when I saw the text book I was talking about to Shivji (Physics for future presidents) on Princeton University Press's stall in that APS meeting. Actually they gave me a evaluation copy and I think it might be fun to arrange and teach that course.

...

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Mar 2011 19:43

ramana wrote:Again basic issue of why spent fuel is stored in such massive amounts is bypassed. The tone of US media is the Japanese did it to themselves. Don't blame the inherent flaws in LWR designs. They have defense in depth which all failed!

Ramana - I am sure you know the answer. Ironically it is the power of anti-NPP lobby's pressure (wrt to transferring it to reprocessing etc) which forces the operators to store such huge amount of spent fuel for such a long time. There was a small news item from New Jersey lawmakers a few weeks ago , about how long NPP should be allowed to store locally .. (IIRC, they changed it from 30 years to 60 years! - or such number).. I do hope NJ learns something from this event.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Mar 2011 19:49

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 22 Mar 2011 19:51

Another scaremongering journos telling about radiation related deaths and effects on unborn child in Sweden . Results were reportedly published in American Journal of Industrial Medicine. Apparently busts the myth of no deaths attributed to radiation, but could be wrong. Gyanis living in unkilland can check and tell us mango abdul if this is false.

One thing to be noted here is that deaths have occured in place unconnected with the place of accident in time and space unlike train, plane accidents or tsunami blah blah. But I think reporter's claim surely must be false in the face of such overwhelming scientific facts. But I would surely get worried if a plant come up in my neighbourhood.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/MC23Dh02.html
by Ritt Goldstein

According to a 2006 Swedish study published in the American Journal of Industrial Medicine, it appears Sweden experienced approximately a thousand excess cancer fatalities because of Chernobyl, the number expected to increase, the cases concentrated proportional to the levels of radioactive exposure. As might be imagined, there were other health effects as well, such as effects with an impact on unborn children.

A 2007 study performed by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a prestigious Cambridge Massachusetts-based think-tank, examined the cognitive effects of Chernobyl's radiation on Swedish children. It found evidence that "fetal exposure to ionizing radiation damages cognitive ability at radiation levels previously considered safe".

Notably, this journalist lives about a ninety minute drive from Gavle, and I only heard of the cognitive problems through a chance meeting while food shopping. I was told that an unusually high number of pregnancies during the peak radiation period had resulted in children with cognitive issues, the above report suggesting the accuracy of that information. But only some years ago, I personally had lived in Gavle; though, I had no idea of its relationship to Chernobyl until I took up residence there.

Initially, one of the places where I had lived was on the shore of a picturesque lake, the village it was in being about a half hour from the city's center. I was struck by how lovely it was, until I learned one couldn't eat the fish, and it wasn't a good idea to do too much swimming, radiation being a problem.

Twenty years after Chernobyl, in 2006, Swedish National Television (SVT) did a news piece titled "Chernobyl still affects Gavle every day" (Tjernobyl paverkar annu Gavle-vardagen). Among other items, it discusses how wild game is checked for radiation, and how residents now often travel to pick the wild berries or mushrooms that they once collected locally.

Who is he to scare common folks with such unconfirmed reports?

He goes on to point more unproven sources , that too from Greenpeace a known anti nuk lobby.

In contrast to the IAEA's fatality figures, a 2006 Greenpeace report forecast 100,000 cancer fatalities, and a 2010 book by leading Eastern European scientists utilizing original "Slavic language" documents ("Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment"), claims a death toll of 985,000.

While some uncertainties exist, there are hard facts.

Gavle is about 1,600 kilometers from Chernobyl, and the amount of nuclear fuel present at Chernobyl during the 1986 accident is reported as about 180 tons, none of which contained plutonium, an element considerably more toxic than the uranium used in standard reactor fuel. Estimates of the amount of nuclear fuel present at the Fukushima reactors are roughly in the 2000 ton range, dwarfing Chernobyl, and one of the six reactors (number 3) does use a mixture of plutonium and uranium, "mox".

I do know that Fukushima (reactor no 3 ) had PUMOX containing Plutonium which apparently is more dangerous than even enriched uranium.

According to the Nuclear Information Resource Center (NIRS), this plutonium-uranium fuel mixture is far more dangerous than typical enriched uranium -- a single milligram (mg) of MOX is as deadly as 2,000,000 mg of normal enriched uranium.( not sure if this is correct, ahh sorry for using color , point doesn't become strong or facts correct just by being in black)

Must be wrong, absolutely. Why should I trust NIRS which I don't even know what it stands for. But I am better eating carbon, doing it for millions of years, Don't people know that CO2 is in air, everytime I exhale it is CO2 and it can be fixed in many ways, ask a botanist.

Earlier it used to be CFC and Methane (what belongs to GHG) for scaring mango abdul in dev countries. But west has become considerably silent when IPCC report about Himalayan Glacier proved wrong. Is it just another stick to beat growing economy with?

Ordinary mango abdul in west spews more CO2 due to his lifestyle than others. Yes I know the debate about GDP intensity of energy vs per capita energy consumption . This is what I posed before my Jap friends and they were reluctantly ack it. But that is besides the point.Should they not reduce it. No it is difficult. Selling Nuk Tech is easy and profitable. We have money and we can , now, afford it and we are close to breakthrough in this area and if they don't include us they would loose lucrative market. Same story was there fro CRAY XMP, denied to India , and when super comp was developed by Indian scientists, quietly unkil took it out of banned list. Before someone asks what all this has to do with Fukushima, I have no idea.

There was report of cesium 137 which is more toxic and longer radioactive half life incidentally it means that the time required for decaying material to decrease by half, while remaining half continues to do the dirty work.

What it means for us is that we need safer choices and transparency in whole debate not technical jargon and selective quoting from either side.

If facts are wrong please correct it. Much obliged. Else ignore it.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 22 Mar 2011 19:56

ramana wrote:Again basic issue of why spent fuel is stored in such massive amounts is bypassed. The tone of US media is the Japanese did it to themselves. Don't blame the inherent flaws in LWR designs. They have defense in depth which all failed!

Ramana; there are articles where US citizens are asking questions about their own plants as to whether its happening there as well. I did not post that since they were not related to the Japanese misfortunes.

JFYI...