ABM/Missile Defense Discussion

[PratikDas]

^^^^ Interesting. Haven't read of this before. Thanks.

[Juggi G]

X-Post

Pariahs No More? ISRO, DRDO to be Off Entities List

While the formal announcement is expected only on Monday, the US has decided to take ISRO and Four of its Subsidiaries and DRDO and its Subsidiaries off its Entities List.

A Significant Removal from the Entities List is expected to be Bharat Dynamics Ltd with its Four Subsidiaries,

Hinting at Future Indo-US Cooperation on Missile Defence, because BDL is Part of India's Missile Technology Activities.

[ramana]

I think will announce sale of Patriots.

[abhik]

My guess is the THAAD.

[Santosh]

I think India should create it's only ban list for foreign military equipment vendors depending on whether they are selling offensive weapons to Paki or Paki sponsored terrorist organizations. That will outright eliminate vendors like LockMart and give us some leverage in negotiations.

[darshhan]

Check this out.F-35 uses its Distributed Aperture system(DAS)to capture the launch of Spacex falcon rocket.Could be used for detecting missile launches as well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZrvAFRhQZc

Personally I feel that in the long run air based missile defense would be more effective than the ground ones.This approach gives one a better chance to neutralise the missiles of an adversary in the boost phase itself.

[darshhan]

^^ By the way this detection took place at about 800 miles(1300 kms) which is extremely decent range.Check out the Northrop Grumman new release for this video.

http://www.irconnect.com/noc/press/page ... l?d=205705

BALTIMORE, Nov. 2, 2010 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) today released a video showing the successful detection and tracking of a two-stage rocket launch at a distance exceeding 800 miles (1,300 kilometers) with the company's AN/AAQ-37 Distributed Aperture System (DAS). The demonstration took place this summer during a routine flight test of DAS conducted aboard the company's BAC 1-11 test bed aircraft.

A video accompanying this release is available at: http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/n ... l?d=205705

"DAS is an omni-directional infrared system that can simultaneously detect and track aircraft and missiles in every direction, with no practical limit on the number of targets it can track. DAS truly revolutionizes the way we think about situational awareness," said Dave Bouchard, program director for F-35 sensors at Northrop Grumman's Electronic Systems sector. "In recent testing, DAS has proven to have applications and capabilities beyond its initial requirements for the F-35, including ballistic missile detection and tracking, and counter-rocket, artillery and mortar (C-RAM) capabilities."

The video generated by DAS during the flight test has been magnified 10 times to allow clearer viewing of the rocket. Unlike other sensors, DAS detects and tracks the rocket at horizon-break without the aid of external cues. DAS algorithms continuously track the rocket through first-stage burnout, second-stage ignition, across DAS sensor boundaries, and through the rocket's second-stage burnout at a distance of more than 800 miles. The video also shows DAS' detecting and tracking the rocket's first-stage re-entry.

The AN/AAQ-37 DAS is designed to provide advanced situational awareness capabilities, including missile and aircraft detection, track, and warning for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. DAS also gives a pilot 360-degree spherical day/night vision, with the capability of seeing through the floor of the aircraft. An operational DAS system is comprised of multiple DAS sensors whose images are fused together to create one seamless picture. Because DAS is passive, an operator does not have to point the sensor in the direction of a target to gain a track.

Northrop Grumman Corporation is a leading global security company whose 120,000 employees provide innovative systems, products, and solutions in aerospace, electronics, information systems, shipbuilding and technical services to government and commercial customers worldwide.

For more info on F-35 Distributed Aperture system(DAS) this is the link.

http://www.es.northropgrumman.com/solut ... targeting/

[tejas]

I think India should create it's only ban list for foreign military equipment vendors depending on whether they are selling offensive weapons to Paki or Paki sponsored terrorist organizations. That will outright eliminate vendors like LockMart and give us some leverage in negotiations.

I agree 400%. What would really make this list effective would be to ban Boeing civil aircraft sales if they gift Harpoons to Paquis as well as GE sales in India if GE engines are in Paqui F-16s.

[darshhan]

I think India should create it's only ban list for foreign military equipment vendors depending on whether they are selling offensive weapons to Paki or Paki sponsored terrorist organizations. That will outright eliminate vendors like LockMart and give us some leverage in negotiations.

I agree 400%. What would really make this list effective would be to ban Boeing civil aircraft sales if they gift Harpoons to Paquis as well as GE sales in India if GE engines are in Paqui F-16s.

Except Russians and Israelis every major western country sells weapons to Pakistan.For eg France sells agosta,Sweden sells airborne warning systems and as far as Americans are concerned the less said the better.By your parameters we will hardly be able to source anything substantial from these countries.I do not think your suggestions are practical.

[Pratyush]

Darshan,

Look at the bright side. India will finaly be forced to develope a domestice MI complex with solid R&D foundation. Today it is the easy (Relatively) availability of imports which result in many domestice projects getting rejected for imports. Once you block that avenue. The Armed forces will be left with no alternative to depend on domestice products.

JMT

[JimmyJ]

Israel halts missile shield deployment

Israel's military says it will put its much-touted Iron Dome air-defense system in storage and deploy it only if Hezbollah or Hamas unleash major rocket bombardments.
On the face of it, that suggests that the weapon built by state-run Rafael Advanced Defense Systems may not be all that it's been made out to be, as some Israeli critics have claimed for some time.

The Jerusalem Post reported Tuesday that "after months of deliberation," the military has decided to store Iron Dome at an air force in central Israel, deploying it "only in cases of extreme rocket fire from the Gaza Strip or southern Lebanon."

[ramana]

[Philip]

http://www.therightperspective.org/2010 ... -sub-nuke/

NoKO has developed a LR sub-launched missile,US reports with Russian help (?).The report has graphics of NoKos ballistic missiles and other details.

North Korea Develops Long-Range Sub Nuke

The R-27 (named SS-N-6 by NATO)
North Korea has developed a long-range submarine missile with a shooting range exceeding 2,500 km (1,554 miles).

The missile is heavily-modified version of the old Soviet Union R-27 (named SS-N-6 by NATO) and can be placed on a submarine or other movable platform.

[Nihat]

How is the above relevant in this thread.

[ramana]

Because what Noko develops it gets passed to TSP.
Ghauri etc are Nodongs with green paint.

[Pratyush]

Besides,

The TSPN has been looking at sub launched BMs for some time. If the missile works then they could reserect the old soviet concept of Disel nuke deterrent boat. This time possibly with AIP in a reletively short time frame. Complicating the job of the IN.

JMT

[darshhan]

Next generation Aegis missile.

http://www.defense-update.com/features/ ... admap.html

In recent years the U.S. has increased its missile defense capability, with the introduction of enhanced capability Patriot (PAC-3) missiles, offering improved point defense against Short Range Ballistic Missiles. Sensors are also improved with AN/TPY-2 X-band radars providing detection and tracking of ballistic missiles at very long ranges andspace-based sensors - increasing early warning of missile launches. Limited trajectory tracking demonstrated by new sensors offer great opportunities for the future. Theater High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) missile batteries will soon be deployed, improving defense against short-and medium-range ballistic missiles. While Standard Missile 3 Block IA missiles are transforming naval vessels into rapidly deployed, forward positioned sea-based Aegis systems, providing surveillance, tracking, and engagement.

The new policy on missile defense announced by the Obama administration increased the procurement of proven systems, investing in mobile and relocatable assets offering flexible and adaptable deployment options to meet changing threats. This policy has focused research and development (R&D) on enhancing the capabilities of current interceptor variants – sea based and land based, improving command, control, and battle management, and deploying more capable sensors, including Precision Tracking Space Sensor (PTSS), enabling defensive systems to establish target track and perform an intercept as early as possible.

Part of the U.S. Phased Adaptive Approach for theater missile defense, is increasing current capabilities in 2-3 year increments. An initial capability provided today by Patriot and Aegis ships at sea is being fielded now and, according to NATO spokesman James Appathurai, will be operational within weeks.

NATO’s leaders meeting this week in Lisbon will decide whether the alliance should build a missile defense for Europe, enhancing the system already being established supporting theater defense system at an investment of €800 million. According to the alliance officials, the additional budget required to enhance the system to extend its coverage to Europe is only €200 million.

2010: Today's Missile Defense

Current deployable missile defense system is geared against short and medium range ballistic missile threats, primarily those posed by Iran. The systems consist of AN/TPY-2 forward based radars and AEGIS BMD cruisers equipped with Standard Missile 3 Block IA, all linked to linked to the command, control and battle management center (C2BMC) operations center located at Ramstein Air Force base in Germany.

2012: ALTBMD Integrates NATO Assets

A new capability to be introduced by NATO in 2012 is the Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence (ALTBMD), a distributed network linking various radars and sensors operated by different NATO countries, embarked by NATO in 2005. The new network building on the current capabilities, expected to launch in 2012, to enable each member nation to better employ its own missile defenses assets against incoming threats. Four European nations will contribute weapons systems and sensors for ALTBMD interim capability – Germany providing Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC 3) missiles, France offering SAMP/T missiles; Italy, contributing Horizon-class frigates and the Netherlands linking its PAC-3 missiles and Air Defense Command (ADCF) frigates. The United States will allocate Aegis cruisers, Patriot missiles, and space early warning to support the European missile shield.

2015: Initial Deployment

By 2015 the current and ALTBMD capability will be enhanced with the introduction of the Next Generation Aegis 5.0 system, in land based units and naval platforms. The new Aegis version will employ SM-3 IB missiles, along with land based THAAD.

2017: Increased NATO Participation

More NATO members are expected to share their assets supporting ALTBMD in its full capability deployment, as NATO will plans to extend the system to cover 'upper tier' engagements, increasing detection range beyond 3,000 km. Hopefully, by that time, the new Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) missile weapon systems are expected to be operational with the U.S., Germany and Italy; employing SAMP/T weapon systems and TPS 77 radars. Spain is expected to join, with Greece contributing Patriot systems, Patriot and F100 frigates, while Germany bringing new assets including the F124 frigates and Global Hawk unmanned systems online. Toward the end of the decade the U.S. will also dedicate more assets to ALTBMD, including new AN/TPY 2 radar sites in Eastern Europe and Land based Aegis and THAAD systems.

2018: Enabling Early Intercept

By 2018 the U.S. is planning to establish improved area coverage against medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles (MRBM/IRBM), with the introduction of two sites of Aegis Ashore 5.1 each equipped with SM-3 Block IB or IIA interceptors. With the Next Generation Aegis Missile (NGAM) fielded by 2020, the alliance will also have the interceptors capable of engaging targets at greater distances, extending the alliance defense against intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM). The distributed, deployment of defensive assets will not depend on a central operating center and rely on the distributed assets for engagement command and control.

[darshhan]

DARPA plans for a new generation of Air Dominance missiles named T3 or triple target terminator.

http://www.defense-update.com/products/ ... 10_t3.html

DARPA has awarded two competitive development contracts to Boeing and raytheon, to conduct conceptual design and development of a multi-mission air/air and air/ground missile dubbed 'Triple Target Terminator' (T3). The program, part of the agency's advanced weapons initiative, is pursuing a high speed, long-range missile that can engage enemy aircraft, cruise missile and air defense targets. T3 will be designed for internal carriage on stealth aircraft like the F-35, F-22 and F-15SE, or externally on fighters, bombers and UAVs.

T3 would allow strike fighter aircraft to rapidly switch between air-to-air and air-to-surface (counter-air) capabilities. The missile is likely to be equipped with multi-mode seeker and network-centric data links, providing high level of target discrimination, employment of kinetic network-centric applications and human-in-the-loop control. An advanced multi-purpose warhead will be required to engage the wide range of targets with maximum lethality.

Raytheon and Boeing were each awarded $21.3 million contracts in November 2010, for the development of T3. The companies are expected to deliver conceptual designs within a year, and continue developing the future weapon, providing prototype missiles for flight demonstration by 2014.

Parallel to DARPA's T3 program the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) is also examining new technologies for a future air/air weapon known as 'DRADM'. Boeing was awarded contracts for the demonstration of a vector thrust propulsion and control, terminal guidance sensors, shaped-charge warhead and fuse mechanism for such a missile. In 2010 DARPA has also funded technology tradeoff studies associated with similar aspects of T3. It has yet to be determined whether the two programs will compete or supplement each other in a common design. ATK, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman have teamed up to pursue future, dual-role missile development to date, but none of these companies were awarded contracts for T3 or DRADM.
Whatever the future missile will be, it is expected to replace current AIM-120 AMRAAM and AGM-88 HARM 'air dominance' missiles currently in service with U.S. air Combat Command, U.S. Navy, Marines, and many allied air forces.

[Gerard]

How US strategic antimissile defense could be made to work
By George N. Lewis and Theodore A. Postol

[nits]

X-Post

How It Works: China's Antiship Ballistic Missile

The most alarming weapon China is developing to deny the U.S. Navy access to the East and South China seas is the antiship ballistic missile—the first such missile able to change course to hit a moving aircraft carrier. Mounted on a mobile launch vehicle, an ASBM would rise in two stages, reach space and then use fins to maneuver at hypersonic speeds on its way back down. The warhead then glides along a level path to permit synthetic aperture radar, which processes multiple radar pulses to form a single picture to target the carrier. Finally, the warhead’s infrared seeker locates a carrier’s signature and closes in for the kill.

[karan_mc]

Indian Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD)

[disha]

X-Post

How It Works: China's Antiship Ballistic Missile

The most alarming weapon China is developing to deny the U.S. Navy access to the East and South China seas is the antiship ballistic missile—the first such missile able to change course to hit a moving aircraft carrier. Mounted on a mobile launch vehicle, an ASBM would rise in two stages, reach space and then use fins to maneuver at hypersonic speeds on its way back down. The warhead then glides along a level path to permit synthetic aperture radar, which processes multiple radar pulses to form a single picture to target the carrier. Finally, the warhead’s infrared seeker locates a carrier’s signature and closes in for the kill.

To me looks like a Prithvi Launch Trajectory. Just like Brahmos went from Anti-Ship to LACM, Prithvi can go from BM to Anti Sh. BM with appropriate sensor package. Already we have Prithvi II with 350 km range and Dhanush has been demonstrated as well. So the basics are there, "only" the avionics have to be mated.

[vasu_ray]

The SAR sensor is unique for the AshBM, our own RISAT was to sport one and very much due courtesy ISRO, and I hope they test a 300kg warhead on the Prithvi making its range 750km, but at this point the line between Prithvi and Shaurya might get blurred as far as trajectory is concerned

so, unless Shaurya is given only a specific nuclear role, its 1900km range with ship launch or sub launched K-15 can increase standoff ranges

[shiv]

X-Post

How It Works: China's Antiship Ballistic Missile

To me looks like a Prithvi Launch Trajectory. Just like Brahmos went from Anti-Ship to LACM, Prithvi can go from BM to Anti Sh. BM with appropriate sensor package. Already we have Prithvi II with 350 km range and Dhanush has been demonstrated as well. So the basics are there, "only" the avionics have to be mated.

I am no mijjile expert - but don't ballistic missiles descend at velocities in excess of 4-5 mach? Maneuvering at very high altitude is fine but at those velocities and flight at lower altitudes should make the maneuvering warhead glow like a welding torch. A missile at say 1500 meters per sec will take 10 seconds to do that last 15 km. A ship at 50 kmph will have moved 130 meters in that time. How would the missile correct its course in the last 10 seconds for example - using a radar or external inputs and winglets actuated in a missile that is glowing at 800 deg C or something? I would really like to know more about this. MIRV is one thing - but hitting a moving target requires updates and maneuvering up to the last few seconds.

[Singha]

maybe release a cloud of steel ball bearings to enlarge the target area? travelling at mach1.5 these will easily penetrate the thin aluminum and steel hulls of modern warships and ofcourse perforate anything exposed like radars, aircraft or humans. the thick steel deck of a aircraft carrier might save it but its "island", comms gear and the 50 or such aircraft parked on deck would be badly affected in theory...the CVN would have to withdraw back to harbour for some serious repair thus ending its mission.

[disha]

Our own AAD/PAD doing Mach 4-5 have fins and they do terminal homing. So it is not entirely inconceivable that a ballistic missile can do some kind of homing, and a little course change of few centimetres can easily cover several tens of metres. Also as Singha suggests it can have variety of option like tungsten or even depleted uranium pellets that can render an Aircraft carrier inoperable.

All of them have been proven in Prithvi/AAD/PAD.

The issue IMHO is., will the AShBM have enough smarts to distinguish its main target? For AAD/PAD, they do mid course correction based on inputs from LRTR. Further the incoming BM has very high IR signature compared to the background emptiness of space. How will the AShBM target a towed array by say a tugboat that simulates various signatures? The AShBM is not going to get mid-course updates. There is not much in its brains (yet) to distinguish between a towed array simulating an Aircraft Carrier and the AC itself. And the further it has to engage, the less space for brains it has. It is not easy to fit a radar and a high powered computer incl. effective explosives in a single payload. Remember it is engaging a moveable target and not static targets like cities.

Also it is plausible that the CBG will carry another anti-bm missiles. In effect AmeriKhans tracked a satellite and blew it up to from a ship based missile. So it is plausible that the CBG just has to carry such a missile boat which can engage BMs at the altitude of 15-40 km.

So IMO the net is that the proposed AShBM from China is more of a bluster than actual thing. What they want is a AShCM (Brahmos) and in the absence of that it is proposing AShBM. There is another take here, we do not need AShBM., because we already have AShCMs. Hence we do not hear much from DRDO/Navy wallahs about the immediate need to field an AShBM just because ChiComs do it. Of course, it all means that the Anti-Ballistic Missile systems will continue to evolve., including a CBG based system.

[SaiK]

But wouldn't the terminal velocity of the steel b@lls (if survives reentry) be somewhere around 300/400mph?

[disha]

But wouldn't the terminal velocity of the steel b@lls (if survives reentry) be somewhere around 300/400mph?

Yes, but if those things do an airburst over a towed decoy, it is all useless. One can count on luck to take out the core of CBG or one can make sure that all bases are covered.

[Pratyush]

I am no mijjile expert - but don't ballistic missiles descend at velocities in excess of 4-5 mach? Maneuvering at very high altitude is fine but at those velocities and flight at lower altitudes should make the maneuvering warhead glow like a welding torch. A missile at say 1500 meters per sec will take 10 seconds to do that last 15 km. A ship at 50 kmph will have moved 130 meters in that time. How would the missile correct its course in the last 10 seconds for example - using a radar or external inputs and winglets actuated in a missile that is glowing at 800 deg C or something? I would really like to know more about this. MIRV is one thing - but hitting a moving target requires updates and maneuvering up to the last few seconds.

Shiv Ji,

Me has been thinking along the same lines. The additional question I have how will the missile (RV) save it self from being burnt up in the upped atmosphear once it starts desending and manuvering to reach & search the target. AS the heat shied will only be available at the nose cone section of the weapon.

JMT

[shiv]

Our own AAD/PAD doing Mach 4-5 have fins and they do terminal homing. So it is not entirely inconceivable that a ballistic missile can do some kind of homing, and a little course change of few centimetres can easily cover several tens of metres. Also as Singha suggests it can have variety of option like tungsten or even depleted uranium pellets that can render an Aircraft carrier inoperable.

The question is that the AAD/PAD actually does its maneuvering and interception at high altitude (over 25 km) where atmospheric friction is less of a problem than sea level. As far as I can tell an anti-ship ballistic missile will have to receive a final update of a ship's position up to the last 7-10 seconds at least - which means that there are signals that are coming in/going out from a missile that is glowing hot and fins/aerodynamic surfaces and actuators that are also subjected to those temperatures at altitudes less than 40,000 feet.

I don't think steel balls and DU balls will be of much use in a missile that misses a ship by 100 meters. After all ship armor plating and defences are geared to take on direct hits of some magnitude. They are not exactly delicate babies. The obvious thing for ship to do is to sail in a weaving pattern with random turns. A carrier will be most vulnerable only when it is launching and recovering aircraft. A ship weaving around will need the missile to be updated in the last 5 seconds or so when it will be less than 25,000 feet high.

A warhead with 25,000 steel balls will be spread out in a sphere that increases with the distance from the center of the explosion. The surface area of a sphere of 100 meters radius is about 125,000 sq meters That will give 1 steel ball for every 5 sq meter surface at 100 meters from the explosion. A 300 meter x 20 meter ship size target at 100 meters from this explosion will get hit by about 1200 balls over its whole side if it is side on to the explosion. Not much damage at one hit per 5 square meters.

[Kanson]

DF-21 Delta: Some Early Thoughts

The so-called DF-21D is much in the news recently, mostly because it hasn’t shown up yet. It is reputed to be the anti-ship version of China’s short-range workhorse, the DF-21. (China uses some version or other of the DF-21 for short-range ballistic missiles, anti-satellite weapons, and ballistic missile defense.) I thought I’d start the analytical discussion of this virtual missile by making some simple calculations about what sort of transverse accelerations its terminal phase guidance and control systems are going to need.

The first point to make is that (unless it is using a nuclear warhead) it is going to need terminal guidance to fine tune the warhead’s trajectory as it reenters the Eearth’s atmosphere. This is true regardless of how well China needs the position of the target carrier—the only target worthwhile shooting at. Consider the scenario China’s military must assume: as soon as a DF-21D is launched (and hence detected by US early warning satellites) every carrier anywhere near the missile takes off at maximum speed in some random direction. If the DF-21D is launched at maximum range (again something China’s military planners would need to assume), each ship could be some 13 km away from where it was a the time of launch. The DF-21D would have to correct for that change sometime during its flight. The most logical place to correct for those changes are sometime after the end of the boost phase since the target carriers—the only targets worth shooting at—can zig and zag at anytime.

Thrusters vs. Fins

The answer is, of course, both if you got ‘em. But each mechanism for changing the warhead’s trajectory will require its own target tracking system. Ideally, you want to make changes in trajectory as early as possible since the longer you have to accelerate to the new trajectory, the lower the magnitude of the required trajectory (and, among other things, the more control you have over the final result). If the DF-21D warhead uses infrared sensors—putting aside the question of whether or not China has the required technology for a moment—then it will have to use them during the coast phase of its trajectory. Otherwise, the heat of reentry will blind the sensor if it tries to use them after it reenters the atmosphere, say something like 50 km altitude to pick a round number.

At these altitudes, the warhead cannot use aerodynamic surfaces to change its direction. So it will need thrusters—little rocket engines—to change its direction. Of course, China does has plenty of experience with fine tuning trajectories with small thrusters from its satellite insertion operations. The most likely method China might use for such a platform is a “bus” that holds the warhead while little thrusters change its position. What sort of thrust would they need? Assuming the warhead makes its corrections as the warhead passes below 100 km altitude in order to minimize the time the target has for changing its direction (again, I’m pulling these numbers out of thin air) it would have enough umph to change the velocity of the warhead/bus combination by 0.6 km/s. (This is calculated by assuming the thrusters need to change the direction of the warhead by 13 km in the 22 seconds the warhead has between when it passes 50 km—the minimum altitude I assume it can still use IR sensors). That, in turn, requires a little more than three G’s (three times the acceleration of gravity). That is probably about the requirements needed for China’s ASAT weapon tested in January 2007. So that seems possible.

If the warhead shuts down its IR sensor as it passes 50 km altitude, it is about 22 seconds before impact. It is too much to hope that the carrier can change its direction or even its speed in those few remaining seconds so the we can expect; the George H. W. Bush displaces 100,000 tons! That means the warhead can “safely” extrapolate the position the carrier will be 22 seconds after its tracker shuts down. During those 22 seconds, the Bush could travel 370 meters, which is about the length of the Bush (333 meters) but five times the beam of the Bush (77 meters). How likely a hit will be will depend on two things: how accurately the tracking system can determine the position and velocity and how finely it can tune its acceleration to match the desired trajectory.

If, for some reason, China relies solely on aerodynamic surfaces for maneuvering then it will have to wait until it gets even closer to the Earth’s surface for really effective control. Let’s assume it needs to wait until its 30 km above the Earth’s surface before the warhead’s fins “bite.” Of course, it could have stored the needed maneuvers from an IR sensor that shut down several seconds before it started maneuvering. On the other hand, it could use a radar to track the target since 50 km is well within the range of most radars mounted on fighter jets today.

At 30 km, the warhead is 13 seconds before impact. If it has to do all its maneuvering to cover the 13 km assumed miss distance, than it will need to change its velocity by nearly 1 km/s. That, in turn, will need an acceleration of 7 G’s. That is certainly possible achieve using only aerodynamic surfaces (SCUD warheads probably had nearly 10 Gs of transverse acceleration as they corkscrewed during their reentry during the first Gulf War). However, it needs to be very finely tuned and that seems the hardest point. No matter what, it would require considerable testing to develop.

Is a DF-21 Anti-Ship Missile Possible?

These rather simple calculations have shown that both types of guidance and control for an anti-ship ballistic missile are possible. But both would be pushing China’s technology considerably. For instance, China can most likely build mid-infrared detectors for military space applications. These might be used for their missile defense interceptor, even though they are barely applicable for anti-satellite weapons. Could they be used for an anti-ship application? Possibly. They could certainly see through most clouds so cloud cover is not an issue. But it would take more thought than I have given it to know that it could discriminate between a ship and the ocean. Radars, which with their limited range would require aerodynamic maneuvering, seem even more problematic because of the need to control large accelerations.

So, while I cannot rule out the DF-21D on first principles, it would need a sustained test and evaluation program no matter what technology it used. I, for one, am unaware of China undertaking such an extensive test program.


George William Herbert

Don’t assume carriers can’t maneuver much in 22 seconds; most iron bombs dropped in WW 2 had fall times not much longer than that and missed by wide margins as carriers and other ships changed direction rapidly. Knowing when the key 22 sec period is might be hard for the defender, though.

Midcourse guidance updates might be passive, rather than active, as well. A lot of antiship missiles take a datalink update that way. As long as whatever provided the initial target position indication can provide an update halfway through missile flight or later, you can get a lot of the target position uncertainty reduced.

There are terminally guided submunitions listed in media descriptions, but not how many or how big. They list destroying aircraft, the control tower, and “penetration” but no particular details that I know of.

It’s important to take this with somewhat of a grain of salt. Various Russian antiship missiles were described as the end of carriers in the 80s; SM-2 improvements and F-14s with Phoenix missiles to engage missile carriers out at the edge of engagement range made those less of a threat.

DF-21D warheads are SM-3 engageable exoatmosphericaly and SM-2 engageable on terminal descent. You can see them coming 1000+ km away on radar due to the trajectory, and the launch warnings from satellites should be robust. They’re a threat – but it’s not clear if it’s really that much worse than prior threats.

[VinodTK]

Indian Military Wants Quick Solution as PAD Tests Continue

"Testing in a controlled environment is different from a real-time one, and there is much that would be required to be done to gain this confidence."

No Induction Date As there is no set date for the induction of PAD, analysts are not sure when the system would go into production.

"If there are adequate investments in technology and testing with rapid productionalizing, PAD should meet Indian air defense needs," Bhonsle said.

"However, at present, this is not seen to be happening, so one can clearly say that this would remain a black hole unless the DRDO, the services and the MoD treat this as a priority area, given that this would give a major leap to Indian deterrence," he said.

The Army official said there is room for more than one variety of anti-missile system, and that while work on PAD proceeds, an advanced anti-missile system could be purchased overseas. "Lockheed Martin is claiming an improved [Patriot Advanced Capability-3 system] with longer range, which may meet part of the needs, given that this is also reportedly selected as the primary interceptor for the multinational Medium Extended Air Defense System in Europe," Bhonsle said.

[geeth]

I am no mijjile expert - but don't ballistic missiles descend at velocities in excess of 4-5 mach? Maneuvering at very high altitude is fine but at those velocities and flight at lower altitudes should make the maneuvering warhead glow like a welding torch. A missile at say 1500 meters per sec will take 10 seconds to do that last 15 km. A ship at 50 kmph will have moved 130 meters in that time. How would the missile correct its course in the last 10 seconds for example - using a radar or external inputs and winglets actuated in a missile that is glowing at 800 deg C or something? I would really like to know more about this. MIRV is one thing - but hitting a moving target requires updates and maneuvering up to the last few seconds.

Before the missile starts descending, its velocity is zero at the zenith of its trajectory. From there the velocity starts increasing while it descends, due to gravitational pull (acceleration). When it enters the atmosphere, the acceleration is reduced due to air friction (though velocity continues to build up), and at some point the equlibrium is reached. At that point onwards, acceleration is nullified by friction.

Velocities of 4-5 Mach are reached after the missile descends for a considerable duration. But the trick is to flatten the trajectory at more manageable velocities - once the trajectory is flattened (glide path), the rate of descend (and therby the acceleration) is reduced and the velocity doesn't build up to reach 4-5 mach. The potential energy during glide is therefore used in covering up distance, rather than increase the velocity of the missile. Hence you won't encounter the kind of speeds which a purely ballistic projectile would achieve.

[nash]

In the sixth test of PAD, being developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), an incoming ballistic missile was destroyed at a range of 600 kilometers and an altitude of 16 kilometers, in what scientists described as an endo-atmospheric test.

I think it was AAD... but that 600 Km range is typo or what?

[Jaeger]

Indian Military Wants Quick Solution as PAD Tests Continue

"Testing in a controlled environment is different from a real-time one, and there is much that would be required to be done to gain this confidence."

No Induction Date As there is no set date for the induction of PAD, analysts are not sure when the system would go into production.

"If there are adequate investments in technology and testing with rapid productionalizing, PAD should meet Indian air defense needs," Bhonsle said.

"However, at present, this is not seen to be happening, so one can clearly say that this would remain a black hole unless the DRDO, the services and the MoD treat this as a priority area, given that this would give a major leap to Indian deterrence," he said.

The Army official said there is room for more than one variety of anti-missile system, and that while work on PAD proceeds, an advanced anti-missile system could be purchased overseas. "Lockheed Martin is claiming an improved [Patriot Advanced Capability-3 system] with longer range, which may meet part of the needs, given that this is also reportedly selected as the primary interceptor for the multinational Medium Extended Air Defense System in Europe," Bhonsle said.

What a total lifafa article. Rahul Bhonsle has been portrayed as communicating the Army's official stance, while he seems to be totally representing the the PAC3 merchants. Utter crap.

[RKumar]

Rubbish starts flowing again ... it is better if US keeps import restriction on India. GoI has deep pockets with full of dollars and some agents want to waste those.... check Taiwan, they purchased PAC defense system costing billions and it is already crap even when it is not fully deployed. Will find the link and post here.. or may be use google chaiwala.

[Aditya_V]

In the sixth test of PAD, being developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), an incoming ballistic missile was destroyed at a range of 600 kilometers and an altitude of 16 kilometers, in what scientists described as an endo-atmospheric test.

I think it was AAD... but that 600 Km range is typo or what?

I think they are refering to simulated intercepted Ballistic missile and not AAD

[tsarkar]

Before the missile starts descending, its velocity is zero at the zenith of its trajectory. From there the velocity starts increasing while it descends, due to gravitational pull (acceleration). When it enters the atmosphere, the acceleration is reduced due to air friction (though velocity continues to build up), and at some point the equlibrium is reached. At that point onwards, acceleration is nullified by friction.

Velocities of 4-5 Mach are reached after the missile descends for a considerable duration. But the trick is to flatten the trajectory at more manageable velocities - once the trajectory is flattened (glide path), the rate of descend (and therby the acceleration) is reduced and the velocity doesn't build up to reach 4-5 mach. The potential energy during glide is therefore used in covering up distance, rather than increase the velocity of the missile. Hence you won't encounter the kind of speeds which a purely ballistic projectile would achieve.

So essentially the DF-21 works as a ground based version of ballistic anti ship missile that has been around since the 80s http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raduga_Kh-15 And I am sure computers on systems like Aegis & 2248 can track depressed trajectory ballistic missiles flying similar to Kh-15 and Standard / Barak-8 can be cued for interception. Unlike a throttleable liquid fuel engine like Brahmos, ballistic missiles do not have significant terminal maneuvering capability, and certainly can be intercepted. I strongly believe Brahmos can maneuver far better than DF-21 can.

[nash]

I think they are refering to simulated intercepted Ballistic missile and not AAD

But in the phase I the range of simulated interception Ballistic missile was ~300-2000km ... i think they put the range of LRTR Radar ~600km.

[Aditya_V]

Nash I think what you have said is highly likely