Thankfully, the oil fields and pipelines will not be targeted by the air-strikes. That is the only good news.shiv wrote:32,000 Chinese from Libya were evacuated in Greek ships. They sure ain't gonna use Tripoli port to get back.ramana wrote:PRC condemns the destruction of the port of Tripoli! Looks like US using opportnity to bomb Libya to stone age and claim saving lives.
Beijing’s leaders “saw themselves as the leader of the Third World, the anti-imperialists, the anti-hegemonists. They felt that way right up until the time they had to evacuate everyone from Libya,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, an energy analyst at Rice University’s Baker Institute. “They have suddenly realized that there are political risks in energy equity markets and that they have to make much more sophisticated risk assessments.”
Before the Libyan conflict erupted, about 75 Chinese firms reportedly were laboring on an estimated $18 billion worth of contracts there, including construction of rail lines, irrigation systems, and Internet and cellphone networks.
But China’s primary interest is energy. State-owned China National Petroleum Corp. has partnered with Libya’s national oil company to build hundreds of miles of pipeline and explore for oil and gas offshore.
“China has made huge diplomatic and economic investments in these countries,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Remin University of China. “Now suddenly, you’re seeing the inherent risk in doing that. China has been focused on the economic benefits. They should learn from this and consider the social and political sides more.”
This is the main potential loss, IMO, is not being part of a model which should have/could have been expanded against TSP tomorrow, if need be.joshvajohn wrote:If India joined the coalition it would have been easy for India to do similar things when any attack on India by the terror group from within Pakistan and no one will shout. India would even get a support to pass UN resolution for that. Thus flatten ISI offices.
We Pakis are just like Araps! Yaaaayy! More peachiness to our bottoms for that!Airavat wrote:Pakistan terms military strikes on Libya regrettable(copycat)
"In Pakistan and Afghanistan we have tribal structures, similarly in Libya ..
Joshuaji - India is a huge country and everyone would love India to be in their coalition as junior partner like the good old days of Jewel in the Crown. if India joins any such coalition it won;t be Pakistan that gets hit. Pakistan is in a permanent state of licking Western ass. It will Iran that the "coalition" will want to hit with India on its side.joshvajohn wrote:If India joined the coalition it would have been easy for India to do similar things when any attack on India by the terror group from within Pakistan and no one will shout. India would even get a support to pass UN resolution for that. Thus flatten ISI offices.
The UN resolution has given a life boon to Gadha-fi. He is free to broadcast from his palace/tent.Theo_Fidel wrote: I don't think NATO gives a damn. If they can take out Gaddafi they will. Honestly it will save a lot of peoples lives.
Exactly, I suspect that amidst all the backdoor negotiations before the UN resolution, India was told what its role could be and India did not find it very favorable terms. Hence it decided to abstain. Why would the GCC and NATO want any equal role for India in their backyard. They just wanted a yes or abstain vote from India to go ahead with their plans. I am surprised so many rakshaks are ruing about a lost chance at target practice, when there are other more juicy ones nearby for IAF to take pot shots at.India is a huge country and everyone would love India to be in their coalition as junior partner like the good old days of Jewel in the Crown.
Kind of disagree here, about c-niti, my take, is for it to work towards certain objectives in particular establish rule of law.Singha wrote:Chankian niti says we ally ourselves with whichever cause or coalition furthers our short and medium term interests and jump ships at opportune moments. long term nobody can be predict.
I see a lot of people demanding that India should become a superpower to be 'immune' to anything
but let me remind that the P5 and certainly not USA & USSR got to where they are following the dharmic path and avoiding risks. they have done a lot of bad things (like screwing some countries N times over) and taking lots of calculated risks along the path.
there is no other way. if you want power you need to put dharma aside and bend/break/skirt the rules and make up things as you go along.
the GOI is not following that path, has never followed it. to me, the demands and expectations of media and forumites that India would be a superpower sound hollow.
if we cannot go in and beat up a couple of local thieves, we cannot demonstrate intent to rule the whole town and cow down rivals.
"the body of a giant, trapped by the brain of a sheep"
I tried to make a similar point using indirect language.Bade wrote:ruing about a lost chance at target practice, when there are other more juicy ones nearby for IAF to take pot shots at.
I code name the entire North Africa and West Asia turmoil as "Chinese Evacuation" . What if all these are being done to get China out of N.Africa and Arabs land?ramana wrote:PRC condemns the destruction of the port of Tripoli! Looks like US using opportnity to bomb Libya to stone age and claim saving lives.
Chanakya Niti, as I understand it, is about being astute in the pursuit of Dharma. Like Shivaji often deceived his enemies.Singha wrote:Chankian niti says we ally ourselves with whichever cause or coalition furthers our short and medium term interests and jump ships at opportune moments. long term nobody can be predict.
....
there is no other way. if you want power you need to put dharma aside and bend/break/skirt the rules and make up things as you go along.
Germans are constantly reminde they lost the War. In the ultimate there are two political streams in Europe: Roman/Latin and Germanic. The Wars of 20th century have put Germanism on back foot and we see the results now.Libya: Situation Highlights. Despite Coalition air attacks, Qadhafi's ground forces intensified their attacks against Misrata. At least 40 civilians died in the attacks, according to new reports. Qadhafi's forces continued to hold Ajdabiya, southeast of Tripoli and fought in Zintan.
A Libyan government aircraft was shot down in eastern Libya. Reporting does clarify whether it was a combat aircraft, but its destruction is a good indicator that the no-fly zone is working.
The commander of Libya's Al-Nusur Brigade was killed on 22 March near Tripoli, Al Jazeera reported. Hussein al-Warfalli reportedly was one of the most prominent commanders of the Qadhafi brigades, according to the report.
Comment: This is a single source report. What has been striking about Libyan forces in the past month is their initial utter incompetence, compared to their effectiveness in the past two weeks. Qadhafi's cohorts include, or included, some very competent tactical commanders, not including any of his sons.
By comparison, the rebels during this time have shown no capability to overthrow the Qadhafi regime, even with modern air support. Most are untrained, probably untrainable and resist leadership.
{Singha this one is for you!!!}
The news reports consistently show the opposition fighters as an ignorant mob that persists in wasting ammunition for the news cameras.
Unless tribal leaders put pressure on Qadhafi to leave, the opposition, at best, will succeed in fragmenting Libya, provided modern air support continues.
Coalition air forces have provided the anti-Qadhafi opposition a second chance at overthrowing the regime or at fragmenting the state. The opposition has yet to create a command structure or even designate a single spokesman. If the opposition fails now, then its revolution never had a chance.
The Coalition can disband, knowing it saved lives and created conditions for either a successful revolution or for a negotiated power-sharing arrangement. The Libyans must create the revolution because air forces cannot do more than create conditions for success, which they have. Aircraft cannot hold ground.
US: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told ABC News that she is aware of some people allegedly reaching out on behalf of Libyan leader Qadhafi to explore his options. Clinton said some of these actions are "theater," but some of are genuine.
France: Military operations over Libya will cease when Qadhafi's forces return to the barracks, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said 22 March. France will "take the initiative in organizing peace," as it did in organizing the military intervention, Juppe said.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy will comment on the Libyan peace in the coming days, he said. Juppe said Libya's future political regime is up to the Libyans and that the intervention aims to allow the Libyan people to express themselves freely and to have the choice of a democratic transition.
{Looks like France is ready to cut and run! They now realize its not just one blow and Gaddafi's pack of cards will fall down!}
Comment: The French explanation of the end state and the ultimate political objectives of the military operations are succinct and clear: Qadhafi forces in barracks and a free and fair transition to democracy. Those define a successful operation.
Coalition update.
Romania will send a frigate to the Mediterranean to participate in the arms embargo on Libya, Romanian President Traian Basescu said on 22 March. The frigate, the King Ferdinand, has a crew of more than 200 servicemen.
The Netherlands will contribute 200 soldiers, six F-16 jet fighters and one mine hunter ship in the next few days to enforce the arms embargo, Dutch Defense Minister Hans Hillen stated on 22 March. The Dutch contribution is for three months, Hillen said.
Germany withdrew from NATO operations in the Mediterranean Sea on 22 March after the alliance began enforcing an arms embargo backed by the U.N. Security Council against Libya, the German Defense Ministry said. Two frigates and two other ships with a crew of 550 would revert to German command, a ministry spokesman said. The roughly 60 to 70 German military personnel involved in NATO-operated airborne warning and control system surveillance operations in the Mediterranean also would be withdrawn, according to the ministry. The Germans will increase their support for operations in Afghanistan but disapprove of attacks against Libya.
"there is only one god"Dilbu wrote: Pointing index finger upwards. Hamas symbol?
Not a realistic argument at all. As if the Euros and US who are pummeling Libya would drop the India-Pakistan equal-equal just because we decided to join in on their gangbang of Gaddafi. As soon as another Paki terrorist attack happened, they would be at the forefront of "counseling restraint" and reminding us that the Libyan action had "nothing to do with terrorism by non-state actors."joshvajohn wrote:If India joined the coalition it would have been easy for India to do similar things when any attack on India by the terror group from within Pakistan and no one will shout. India would even get a support to pass UN resolution for that. Thus flatten ISI offices.
In end the President's war powers will trump the Congress fiduciary role.Obama runs into Libya hurdle in US
Rivals question legality of role
K.P. NAYAR
Washington, March 22: The western military operations against Muammar Gaddafi, already hamstrung by differences within Nato, African opposition and uncertain backing from the Arab League, faced new challenges today with Republicans questioning the legality of US participation in what amounts to war.
Republicans want the US Congress to urgently debate and some even want a vote on an authorisation for US involvement in attacks on Libya. Before General Carter Ham, head of the US Africa Command, took charge of “Operation Odyssey Dawn” — as the anti-Gaddafi military initiative is called — President Barack Obama sent a letter informing Congress that Ham was enforcing a UN resolution for the protection of civilians from Gaddafi’s attacks.
That initially satisfied Congressmen and Senators but as the Libyan operation unfolds, Captiol Hill is beginning to insist that Obama should seek formal legislative authorisation for military action. If this demand gains ground, it could complicate American participation in the fight against Gaddafi.
With extreme right wing “Tea Party” Congressmen playing maverick roles in the new US Congress, there is no guarantee that Obama can win a vote for war in the House of Representatives, now controlled by Republicans.
Echoing the feelings among Tea Party legislators in Capitol Hill’s second chamber, the Senate, Rand Paul, a founding member of the Senate’s Tea Party caucus, said: “We are currently involved in two wars right now and I don’t think we really need to be involved in a third war.
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, chairperson of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, expressed the view that “deferring to the UN and calling on our military personnel to enforce the ‘writ of the international community’ sets a dangerous precedent.”
The House Speaker, John Boehner, reminded Obama that he had a “responsibility” to tell Congress what the aims of US involvement in Libya were.
Senior Republican Senator Richard Lugar, whose voice carries a lot of weight among his colleagues, reasoned that “there needs to be a plan about what happens after Gaddafi. Who will be in charge then, and who pays for this all? President Obama, so far, has only expressed vague hopes.” Lugar and others have also expressed fears that whoever comes to power in Tripoli after Gaddafi may not be the type that Americans want.
Clamour is also growing among US legislators for Obama to clearly outline what critical American national security interests are involved in joining the military operations. Obama was hoping to head off any dissent on Capitol Hill over Libya by quickly transferring command of “Operation Odyssey Dawn” to Nato by yesterday, but that effort failed when members of the alliance could not agree on Nato’s command or on the scope of actions against Gaddafi.
Turkey opposed a Nato take-over of the Libyan no-fly zone arguing that the scope of the current operation went beyond what the UN Security Council had authorised last week.
“Turkey will never ever be a party pointing weapons at the Libyan people,” its Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told some Turkish members of parliament today. “The umbrella for a solely humanitarian operation in Libya should be the UN.”
Meanwhile, Anglo-American efforts have brought the Arab League back into their fold in support of the western military mission against Libya. On Sunday, the League wavered and said it was against any bombing of Libya. If Obama approached the Congress, it may yet give him the freedom to act against Gaddafi, but will extract a price in terms of budget cuts for his favourite programmes and advance a Republican agenda in matters of the party’s choice.
Certainly fits a broader pattern... China has been investing heavily in Africa for a while now, and quite conveniently for the US, somehow it is exactly those countries that China has built good working relationships with that end up going through political turmoil and overthrow. Look at Sudan -- China went to a lot of trouble building up a good relationship there, building pipelines to carry the oil from the South to the ports for export, etc. etc. Then all of a sudden, theSwamyG wrote:I code name the entire North Africa and West Asia turmoil as "Chinese Evacuation" . What if all these are being done to get China out of N.Africa and Arabs land?ramana wrote:PRC condemns the destruction of the port of Tripoli! Looks like US using opportnity to bomb Libya to stone age and claim saving lives.
ramana wrote:SwamyG, Recall I had said my analysis shows that Gaddafi over reached when he use his airfarce on the rebels? I showed it to my son who said , "The air in 21st century is like the sea in the 18th century!" Recall the English didn't care what you did on land but once you used a ship they were after you like a ton of bricks claiming piracy what not. Similarly after Cold War the US will come down like a ton of bricks on any one using airforces to suppress rebellions.
Ramana - I know you have read this post from me which fits in here as much as the other threadramana wrote:My son was saying this Libyan excursion reminds him of the war on Kosovo.
That is assuming the next attack is in India. The question could well be, would India be advising restraint to the West WRT TSP?Rudradev wrote: Not a realistic argument at all. As if the Euros and US who are pummeling Libya would drop the India-Pakistan equal-equal just because we decided to join in on their gangbang of Gaddafi. As soon as another Paki terrorist attack happened, they would be at the forefront of "counseling restraint" and reminding us that the Libyan action had "nothing to do with terrorism by non-state actors."
“India, Uninvited, Joins Nuclear Club.” New York Times, May 19, 1974Rudradev wrote: By the way, despite all the eagerness here to have supported the attack on Libya by getting in a few MKI kicks of our own ... I still haven't seen one indication, anywhere, that we were ever invited to the party. Who asked us to join? At the most we could have shown our support in an inconsequential UNSC vote. Given that we do not know what the outcome will be, abstaining on that vote was the only sensible thing to do.
A rudimentary review of present geopolitics will make very obvious why the US and Euros do not want Indian participation in the NFZ enforcement even while they're gung ho for active Arab involvement.
What is India's game in this? An unknown, unknown?Rudradev wrote: Remember, India is PACCOM's brief while Pakistan is CENTCOM's... the Western strategy of cultivating these two countries as assets for different theatres, however, goes back all the way to partition. Pakistan was always seen as the potential bulwark north and west of the subcontinent, India to the south and east. Mutually exclusive spheres of influence that the West would not like to see overlap (even to the extent of Indian assistance to Afghanistan, or Indian retaliation against Paki terrorist HQs.) This is a primary reason for the whole "balance of power" emphasis still touted by people like George Friedman, however much it seems to fly in the face of current realities.
Added later: It's also interesting to see how eager the US is to have GCC take a leading role in the anti-Gaddafi operations. It can be compared to the classic Clinton-Wilsonian template established by the Yugoslav war in the '90s. Let the regional (aspiring) members of the integrating "core" take the lead, so that they are invested in conflict against powers that represent the non-integrating "gap" . Thus the concomitant rise of their regional leadership roles is immediately suborned to satrapy within the larger scheme of globalization devised by the US. http://globlogization.wikistrat.com/the ... s-new-map/
ManuT wrote: That is assuming the next attack is in India. The question could well be, would India be advising restraint to the West WRT TSP?
Good question!....In his essay, Fischer argued the abstentions by China and Russia, because they possess permanent vetoes, were essentially "yes" votes -- whereas that from Germany, as a leading member of both NATO and the European Union, was akin to a "no" vote. "I don't know what the German foreign minister was thinking," he wrote. "But (the abstention) doesn't have much in common with a values-driven foreign policy nor with German and European Union interests."
And so too does Fischer. "I have nothing but shame for the failure of our government," he wrote.
Libya's biggest tribe joins march of reconciliation to Benghazi - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ma ... h-benghazi
Bani Walid looks like any Libyan town with its breezeblock houses, unpaved streets and giant posters of Muammar Gaddafi. But it is famous for resisting Italian colonialism and as the centre of the country's biggest tribe, which is now anxious to be seen as a loyal pillar of the regime.
With more than a million members, Warfalla live all over Libya, including in the rebel stronghold of Benghazi. The tribe's geographical distribution means it is well-placed to help heal bitter divisions by joining a peaceful "green march" to the eastern city to promote reconciliation and avoid the Korea-style partition of the country many fear.
A map showing the distribution of some of these tribes is available hereThe Main Arab Tribes of Libya:
The tribal system is still a fundamental part of Libyan society, more than any where else in the whole region. Most Libyan surnames carry the tribal name and therefore one can easily identify a person's tribe simply by knowing his surname. For example, Col. Gaddafi comes from the Gaddadfa Tribe. There are at least 140 known clans or tribal networks in Libya.
(1) - Western Libya:
•Warfallah (Warfalla, Werfella) (قبيلة ورفلة): the largest Arab tribal group in west Libya, consisting of 52 sub-tribes and estimated at around one million people, inhabiting the area of Musratha or Misurata District including the town of Bani Walid. They have originally descend from the Arab tribes of Bani Hilal who were brought from Arabia by the Fatimids to assist in establishing Islam in Libya in the 11th century AD.
•Az-Zintan: (قبيلة الزنتان): close to the Warfallah tribe: found mainly in the Western Mountain between the Berber towns of Jado and Yefren and Kabaw.
•Awlad Busayf (West Libya).
•Maslata: found in the area of Msallata, west Libya.
•Masrata: found in west Libya, with a large presence in Tripoli.
•Al-Rijban, Ar-Rujban (Western Mountain, Nafousa Mountain).
•Al-Majabra, al-Mujabra: south-west of Tripoli, close to the Western Mountain, and in the Jalo area in Cyrenaica in Eastern Libya. The most prominent member of this tribe is the Libyan head of the army Major General Abu-Baker Younis Jaber - one of the original members of the 12 officers of the Revolutionary Command Council led by Gaddafi in 1969.
(2) - Central Libya:
The central region refers to the desert area between Cyrenaica (East) and Tripolitania (West), which from ancient times was the border area between the two regions (see http://www.temehu.com/Cities_sites/as-sultan.htm).
•Qaddafi, Qadadfah : Gaddadfa, Gadhadhfa, Qathathfa, Gathafi (قبيلة القذاذفه) - centred around Sert [Sirte). An influential ruling tribe in today's Libya, originally found around the present-day Sert in central Libya and Sabha in the south, the present capital of Fazzan. The leader of the September revolution, Col. Mua'mmar al-Qaddafi, belongs to the Al-Qaddafi tribe.
•Al-Magarha, al-Magariha, al-Megrahi: one of the largest tribe in the central-western region of Libya, and traditionally strong allies of the Gaddadfa tribe. The former Libyan Prime Minister Abdessalam Jalloud belongs to this tribe. Also the release of the alleged Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset al-Megrahi was secured by Al-Qaddafi family.
•Al-Magharba (The Westerners).
•Al-Riyyah.
•Al-Haraba.
•Al-Zuwaid.
(3) - Eastern Libya:
•Az-Zuwayya, Zuwayya, Zawiya (قبيلة الزوية): the largest and most influential tribe in Eastern Libya (Cyrenaica), largely found in Benghazi, Ejdabiyah, Kufra, Tazerbu (Tazirbu) and the surrounding areas.
•Bani Salim (Banu Saleem): like their brothers the Bani Hilal of Tripolitania the Bani Saleem tribes were brought from Arabia in the 11th century to assist in the spread of Islam in North Africa by the Fatimid rulers. While the Bani Slaeem settled in Cyrenaica as the first stop to strengthen the forces in the east of Libya the Bani Hilal continued their journey towards Tripolitania.
•Mesratha, Musratha, Misurata (قبيلة مصراتة): an Eastern Libyan tribe inhabiting a number of towns and villages including Benghazi and Darna (Darneh). The name is the same as the name of the third largest town in Libya: Misuratha, in west Libya.
•Al-Awagir, al-Waqir: found in the Barqa region of Cyrenaica, with history of resistance against the Italians.
•Tawajeer: one of the prominent tribes of Cyrenaica.
•Ramla: one of the prominent tribes of Cyrenaica.
•Kargala: one of the prominent tribes of Cyrenaica.
•Kawar: a group of tribes in the region of Kaouar.
•Al-Abaydat, Abdiyat: a group of 15 tribes found in the area of Tobruk
•Drasa:
•Masamir, Masameer:
•Al-Barasa:
•Al-Fawakhir:
•Farjan: found mainly west of Ajdabiya (Ejdabiyah), Sirte, and also in Zliten further west.
The contenders: Likely power-brokers in a post-Gaddafi Libya
Contenders are already emerging to lead Libya in a post-Gaddafi regime. New research provided to The Independent on Sunday by risk consultants Exclusive Analysis profiles potential key players in Libya's future.
Zaineb Al-Assam of Exclusive Analysis said: "Gaddafi will not step down voluntarily, and his opponents will accept nothing less than the removal of him and his allies. Tribalism and the weakness of the armed forces indicate that prolonged civil war is the most likely scenario for Libya."
1. Major General Abdul Fattah Younis al-Obaidi One of the army officers involved in the coup that saw Gaddafi seize power in 1969, the 67-year-old Interior Minister joined the rebels and ordered his troops to storm a security forces base in Benghazi last month. Major General Younis is a member of the powerful al-Obaidi tribe, and the interim government has described him as one of the "trustworthy" military persons who will lead the country for three months before elections are held.
2. Colonel Tarek Saad Hussein Not widely known until he defected and became one of seven former colonels to take charge of rebel forces in Benghazi. Colonel Hussein claims to be leading the operations against Gaddafi but maintains he is leading a popular uprising, not a military coup. In an interview last month, he said: "We hope to have a democratic state, not a military state. We are fed up with a military state. The military is only for protecting the nation — not for ruling."
3. General Abu Bakr Younis Jaber One of the original members of the Revolutionary Command Council and a long-time member of Gaddafi's inner circle. General Jaber's army experience makes him a likely candidate for leading a coup against Gaddafi. It is understood that he is under house arrest.
4. Abdul Salam Jalloud Another of the army officers in the 1969 coup and a friend of Gaddafi since school, he served as Libya's second in command until he was demoted in 1993 and ousted from the regime's elite inner circle two years later. Mr Jalloud has now publicly renounced Gaddafi.
5. Sheikh Akram el-Warfelli A senior member of the large Warfella tribe, which attempted a coup against Gaddafi in 1993. Once an ally of Gaddafi, he has now cut his ties with the Libyan leader. He said last month: "We tell the brother Gaddafi, well, he is no longer a brother. We tell him to leave the country."
6. Prince Mohammed El-Senussi The most likely candidate for heading a constitutional monarchy, which could emerge as a symbolic unifying force in post-Gaddafi Libya. He was seven when his great-uncle, King Idris, was overthrown by Gaddafi in 1969. The 48-year-old has lived in exile in Britain since 1988, and appeared on Arab media last month calling on Gaddafi to leave Libya and stop "massacring" his people.
7. Mustapha Abdul Jalil The former justice minister is now head of the Libyan interim government in Benghazi and likely to play a key role in the country's future.
8. Jamal Al-Hajji A human rights activist, writer, lawyer and long-standing opponent of Gaddafi who heads the 17 February Movement, named after the date of a heavy crackdown on opposition protests in Benghazi in 2006. Mr Al-Hajji holds dual Libyan and Danish nationality and has been imprisoned on various occasions; he is currently in jail on the pretext of a traffic offence.
9. Suleiman Abdul Qader The exiled chairman of the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya, he fled to London after a crackdown by Gaddafi in 1998. Mr Qader has called for "a reform inspired by civil society under the umbrella of a law which respects human rights".
10. Abdelhakim Belhaj Led the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group in the 1990s in several terrorist plots in Libya. Likely to lead a more radical alternative to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Wonder if this 1956 Suez redux for the West Europe. After this the go in deep funk for loss of face.Libya: Pro-Qadhafi forces resumed their attacks on rebel-held Misrata on the 23d. A doctor said the tanks were shelling the area and closing in on the hospital in Misrata. The tanks and artillery are quiet during the day, but the snipers have continued. A rebel spokesman said 16 people were killed in attacks in Misrata and the western rebel-held town of Zintan.
Comment: The situation appears to be reaching the limits of what air power can do to prevent civilian casualties. By mixing with the populace, Qadhafi forces can control towns and avoid destruction from the air for a time.
The Qadhafi forces eventually will run out of gas, food and ammunition because anything moving on the roads is a target. Strategically, Qadhafi cannot govern, but he and his family can hold out in Tripoli until the money runs out.
{Very clearly the UN NFZ was not about preventing repression by Gaddafi but regime change. This is a political goal of the P-3 and not the UNSC.}
The Rebels.
A member of Libya's opposition National Transitional Council said the council wants the international community to train and arm rebel forces. According to Ali Zeidan, the rebels could topple the Qadhafi regime within 10 days if the Western coalition continues the U.N.-sanctioned airstrikes.
Zeidan said that there are enough men in the rebels' ranks to stage a march on Tripoli. Once Libyan territory is liberated, the council would set up a constituent assembly that would draft a new constitution and establish a democratic and secular state. In addition, the council wants to create a secular democracy that would respect the oil contracts awarded under Qadhafi.
Rebel spokeswoman Iman Bughaigis said the Libyan rebel council has created a governing body in a new effort to organize the movement. She said the move reflects the rebel realization that they need better organization. She said the council originally thought it would only take a week or two to depose Qadhafi, but now realizes that it needs a structure and a government to liberate the eastern territories.
The National Transitional Council based in Benghazi named U.S.-based academic Ali Tarhouni as the chief of its financial and commercial committee. A spokesman for the council said that Tarhouni understands the "Western mentality," and will be a de facto finance minister for the council.
Comment: What is emerging is a Cyrenaica autonomous region, based on Benghazi, linked to but separate from Tripolitania, where Qadhafi remains in control. Cyrenaica appears to be getting organized at last. Coalition air power is absolutely essential to the survival of an autonomous Cyrenaica.
So an solution like Southern Sudan or Eritriea is emerging and will find support from the West.}
The tribes have not risen against Qadhafi in the south or the west. They could make a difference but are likely to stay on the sidelines until there is an obvious winner.
The Coalition.
NATO countries have not come to an agreement to take over command of military operations in Libya from the United States. NATO ambassadors held a third day of meetings in Brussels, but were unable to come to any decision. The dispute concerns the difference between enforcing a U.N.-mandated no-fly zone over Libya and military operations to protect civilians as well as the breadth of the mission.
French Foreign Minister Juppe said that the countries forming the international coalition intervening in Libya as well as African Union and Arab League representatives will meet in London on Tuesday, 29 March, to ensure the operation's political oversight, and that President Sarkozy would soon take initiatives "to talk about peace, the return to peace."
During a session of questions to the government in the French National Assembly, broadcast live on publicly-owned France 3 TV, the minister also emphasized that the intervention was a "United Nations operation" or in any case "under a United Nations mandate". He also said that that the intervention in Libya would be "of a short duration."
Comment: Unless Qadhafi gets frightened and leaves, as has been suggested in some press accounts, the situation is heading for talks. The Coalition members have no interest in a long fight.
On the other hand, unlike Afghanistan, this has been the kind of fight that the Coalition armed forces have trained for. Like the anti-piracy patrols off Somalia do for the coalition navies, Odyssey Dawn helps justify air force budgets in hard times when there is no obvious enemy.
{So the coalition memebrs joined up for a quick/short lynching party and are disappointed that the rebels are not taking over after this show of force. Again shows the maturity of India in abstaining in this lynch project.}