Libyan War : Political and strategic aspects

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 27 Mar 2011 20:13

Suppiah wrote: I do agree with your overall view that west is out to fix us so we can never challenge them economically, culturally and politically. But we just have to look at relative merits. Compared to the 'east' they are far better..at least they let you live.

Suppiah - no offence meant but a Hindu living in an Islamic kingdom a few centuries ago cannot be blamed for saying exactly the same thing "At least they let you live". That is after all what they were allowed.

Actually the attitude of the west in terms of domination is exactly the same whether they are dealing with Islamic Pakistanis or Libyans or secular or Hindu Indians. as long as Pakistan and India can fight it out and as long as China and India can fight it out the West (read US) stands to gain.

We need a paradigm shift in our thinking. If China and India were to bandwagon the West would be seriously screwed. Pakistan too need to be brought under our sphere of influence. We can "let them live" no?

But i will write a few words more in the China-US-Pakistan thread.

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 27 Mar 2011 21:46

Libyan Rebels Advance on Key Oil Refinery at Ras Lanuf
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/28/world ... ss&emc=rss

It is essential for any country's leader which does not respect and kill their own people to realise the fact the world will not stay being an observer. It is also essential for any country which supports such countries too cannot get away from their own people making judgement on their own leaders. Democracy is an aspiration of a few Arabic countries and thus people are in the streets knowing that their lives are in danger. Gaddafi's calculations went wrong and so a few other leaders who are trying to hold onto power. After Gaddafi all these will go. Because of Gaddafi's persistance in killing his own West got involved. It is no more time for any tyrannts to stay in power including Syria and Yemen. India should not stand at the wrong side. The present govt has taken side of the political tyrants and history will bring the democratic name of India down. When democratic leaders being elected will come to realise this then India will be seen as antidemocratic supporter. India should have been in frontline calling for democracy and making statement against killing their own people. This is not supporting western values or western countries rather taking the right side at right time.

Indian congress had great statesmen and women who did not stay calm when Bengalis cried for help in Bangladesh and when Tibetians too. We stood by them. now the present congress leaders watch and support and sometimes even protect those countries rulers who kill their people. On the one hand India wants to be part of International bodies and then on the other she stands exactly against the values that will make her a world leader.

‘Use of force is not acceptable to India; not in Libya, not anywhere else’
http://www.deccanchronicle.com/360-degr ... %80%99-903

Libya and the Tomahawk
http://the-diplomat.com/indian-decade/2 ... -tomahawk/

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 27 Mar 2011 22:04

joshvajohn wrote: It is essential for any country's leader which does not respect and kill their own people to realise the fact the world will not stay being an observer. It is also essential for any country which supports such countries too cannot get away from their own people making judgement on their own leaders.

joushuajohnji,

What did the "world" do to Pakistan in 1971?
What did the people of the US do to their leaders after 1971?

A lot of these things are time pass onlee. if it suits a country, they do it. If not. Balls.

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 27 Mar 2011 22:26

Shiv
thank you for the comments. I do not disagree with you. ofcourse West also looks at in what way they can benefit from such involvement. Oil is ofcourse a good business to get involved for. what is the problem after the war if West works with the democratically elected govt to make business on Oil in Libya.

It is right if it suits a country they do it. But it is essential to show to the world that India stand by values while critiquing others. We have democratic values to stand by. By involving positively in Libya not by abstaining rather supporting democratic movements in Arabian countries. India should have shown a bit more of an international statemenship in this episode rather than isolating themselves.

the whole movement in Arabic countries will have implicatications for Islam and the fundamentalist groups. Majority of Arabic countries want to enjoy freedom and a share of their resources. Muslims in two or three decades of time will have more democratic and critical thinkers and will bring cetainly changes within their religion which will go against the terror groups and fundamentalist approach to religion. It will have implications for India too because it was the revolution in Iran that let to the present anti Western values and approaches. But the democratic revolution is going to make an impact on all the fundamentalist Islamic thinkers and groups even in India. Such positive reform will help in India as Indian Muslims will not take the Fundamentalist approach rather appreciate India's democratic values and thus proactively engage with India.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Mar 2011 22:31

Co-existence of Islam, democracy, commons getting a share of their resources (how do they do it, each family gets their own gas station?)

Nice dream

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 28 Mar 2011 02:20

The Art of Inconclusive War

But lost along the way is hard-headed, strategic calculation of the national interest. “They won’t come back till it’s over/Over there!” sang George M. Cohan as the doughboys marched off in 1917. It was all over 20 minutes later and then they came back. Now it’s never over over there — not in Korea, not in Kuwait, not in Kosovo, not in Kandahar. Next stop Kufra? America has swapped The Art of War for the Hotel California: We psychologically check out, but we never leave.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 28 Mar 2011 02:28

Gates: Libya not ‘a vital interest’ for US, but part of region that’s of vital US interest

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 28 Mar 2011 02:56

Here's the map of the Sirte area. Sirte is unusual from other cities along the coast that the main highway does not run through town. It in fact runs a a good 2 miles south of the town. Not only that there is a good quality bypass road a good 40 km's south of town as well. The Bypass and the main highway meet at a place called Hunaywah. The town immediately to the East of it is Al Sultan. It is 100 miles West of Bin Jawwad. If you hear that the rebels have taken either of these areas, know the Sirte will be bypassed and next up is Misrata and Tripoli.

If the Gaddafi clan has its wits about it. It would make its last stand right here, at Al Sultan. There is a small town to provide shelter from air strikes and they won't have to divide their forces. Also if they try to blockade the road near Sirte the air strikes would clear them out in no time at all. Even though Sirte looks like a major problem on the big map, it is nothing of the kind in close up. It is almost indefensible. This is possibly why the clan fought so hard at Ajdabiya, the one place all the roads meet and relatively easy defense was possible. Undoubtedly the coalition is already bombing the clan defenses at these roads near Sirte.

Overall

Closeup

The more one look at the maps the more the monumental incompetence of Gaddafi strikes one. He left the entire East and all the oil complexes and 80% of his wealth essentially unguarded. No military, no security, no bases and no fiercely loyal troops. This is what ultimately dooms him. He is cut off from his money and POL. Already there are reports that this army is abandoning equipment as they run out of gasoline. There are reports of zero gasoline available in Tripoli. The West will grind to a halt without the Easts oil. By contrast the East is supplying free gasoline to the rebel trucks just to empty its tanks. Gasoline tankers now follow the Rebel convoy.

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 28 Mar 2011 06:56

shiv wrote:Actually the attitude of the west in terms of domination is exactly the same whether they are dealing with Islamic Pakistanis or Libyans or secular or Hindu Indians. as long as Pakistan and India can fight it out and as long as China and India can fight it out the West (read US) stands to gain.

We need a paradigm shift in our thinking. If China and India were to bandwagon the West would be seriously screwed. Pakistan too need to be brought under our sphere of influence. We can "let them live" no?

The Old West reached its zenith of power in 1913, the culmination of two centuries of rising might. The New West reached its zenith in 1991, also the culmination of two centuries. At this point they are the old order. The US will remain a powerful empire for another century at least, but the center of gravity will swing back to the Asian landmass and has already begun to do so.

Given this scenario, the conflicts between the Asian nations will not ease up to align themselves against the West; the latter is no longer the tiger in the room which will unite the wolves. I think such a paradigm shift in alignment misinterprets the actual threats to India and also the relationship we will have with the Chinese in the time beyond the near future. By the time any such axis could be formed the time for it will be long past, but really the time was never right for such an axis, as the Chinese already knew in 1962.

Along with the monumental successes of the Western establishment there are also colossal blunders. The idea of a NWO pretends that these colossal blunders are also secretly a monumental success and therefore no matter how much the American empire declines in the future, the 'Elites' or Illuminati or whoever are secretly still juggling all the balls in the air, behind the scenes. This is an ahistorical distraction... what is happening right now in the Middle East is like a tsunami and the Americans, like everyone else, are trying to survive and direct the waves.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 28 Mar 2011 08:09

It appears the Gaddafi clan did not blow up the causeway at Bin Jawwad. This is the same causeway they launched their offensive from. Its destruction would probably have bought them at least a week or two. Very careless. Their disarray may be greater than it appears.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Mar 2011 09:20

UBanerjee wrote: Given this scenario, the conflicts between the Asian nations will not ease up to align themselves against the West; the latter is no longer the tiger in the room which will unite the wolves. I think such a paradigm shift in alignment misinterprets the actual threats to India and also the relationship we will have with the Chinese in the time beyond the near future. By the time any such axis could be formed the time for it will be long past, but really the time was never right for such an axis, as the Chinese already knew in 1962.

My personal views on this are here
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 3#p1056083

habal · Post by **habal** » 28 Mar 2011 09:57

It says French intelligence penetrated Gaddafi's powerless military and manufactured many desertions. This would have taken them minimum 1 year to manage and once they felt like that got a key person they perceived as a game-changer to switch, they started the rebellion in the east. So obviously Gaddafi is in disarray. If he was clever, he would have got in African Union troops to maintain peace at Benghazi. Maybe he tried that but it was too late, so there would be an intelligence failure as well.

Libya is important to India's geo-political concerns, because it shows how once a society and military are penetrated by western interests, the game can be changed rather rapidly, in face of significant domestic dissent. Also one realizes why the west keeps such close track of India's domestic political situation and dissent now. This embrace of India, by sending its key CIA operatives to nameless locations under guise of various expat Indian-origin recruits of american citizenship is exactly to make a ripe environment for a Libyan Spring in India. Replace tribes with castes and faultines between daleets and UC's, and tribals and UC's in eastern naxalwadi, 'occupied' kashmiris vs 7000000000 in Narth and u get the picture.

Purchase of american weapons is another game-changer. These weapons will be rendered literally useless in any actual combat and take away India's key developmental funds which may help build a bigger base. This is how they plan to tame India. There is no doubt that this project is important because from the pattern that emerges, no strong leader is being allowed to thrive outside of US, UK, FRA, ITL (because these are kind of puppets anyway), which makes the rest more ripe to sociological experiments and establishing change.

This thing may be more closer than you think.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Mar 2011 10:04

habal wrote: This thing may be more closer than you think.

India has been through all this in the past. If it happens again we deserve it and should welcome it.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 28 Mar 2011 10:37

Sirte has fallen!! That was quick. The Qaddafi regime is defenseless. The relief of Misrata is near.

Gaddafi clan command and control must be in complete chaos to allow such a quick capitulation. Either that or they decided that Sirte is quite simply indefensible as the maps above show. They almost certainly left all the heavy equipment in Sirte. I don't see how he can defend Tripoli by itself.

As a side note we should note one point. We have always shaken our head at how lightly armored the rebels are and how they flit back and forth without really reinforcing their positions. Yet the lighting speed of their advance also prevents the gaddafi clan from planning any sort of defense. No armored grouping could advance at this pace. With total air superiority, speead appears to be important, to prevent the enemy from improving tactics.

They'll be at Tripoli within the week at this pace. The gaddafi forces besieging Misrata are horribly exposed on their flanks at the moment.

habal · Post by **habal** » 28 Mar 2011 11:37

shiv wrote:India has been through all this in the past. If it happens again we deserve it and should welcome it.

ofcourse, it will be repeat of history. But it will come with a twist. What I am sure is that the efforts towards this are more than a mere 'trial'. After initial success, we have now come towards a stage of consolidation. This is the time when they size us up.

The world will view India's fall (if it comes to that) much the same way they currently view Gaddafi's. The non-aligned 'third world' bloc will not let this pass without noting down a few regrets, for the rest it will be another despot/dictator/towelhead falls down. Same as how for some India is that casteist/oppressive/daleeet infested nation and for others (slightly larger numbers than pro-Libyan bloc we speak about here but probably equally geopolitically insignificant) who have experienced India close-quarters and have a fair-view. That is the reason western (read US, UK, FRA, ITL, the euro game-changer countries) entities keep their populations ignorant about India. Only then can they plant psy-ops and misleading data. Anyone will ask why they have actively facilitated such a situation for such a long time, obviously the intentions aren't honorable.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 28 Mar 2011 11:49

^ Isn't this too simplistic a view of dynamics that make India and ROW. What does fall of India anyways mean ?
We are way pass that point.
There is no leader is India occupying the throne for last 30-40 years, corrupt to the core hogging all the resources alone with no sharing of power like it is in ME countries.
Not every situation or event that happens anywhere in the world can be replicated in India, whether it is colored revolutions or EJ's/Islamists changing the whole demographics or western inspired revolutions.
As far what is happening in ME/North Africa is execution of an Idea whose time has come just no thanks to Western world like Eastern Europe in last days of 80's.

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 28 Mar 2011 12:11

habal wrote:It says French intelligence penetrated Gaddafi's powerless military and manufactured many desertions. This would have taken them minimum 1 year to manage and once they felt like that got a key person they perceived as a game-changer to switch, they started the rebellion in the east. So obviously Gaddafi is in disarray. If he was clever, he would have got in African Union troops to maintain peace at Benghazi. Maybe he tried that but it was too late, so there would be an intelligence failure as well.

Libya is important to India's geo-political concerns, because it shows how once a society and military are penetrated by western interests, the game can be changed rather rapidly, in face of significant domestic dissent. Also one realizes why the west keeps such close track of India's domestic political situation and dissent now. This embrace of India, by sending its key CIA operatives to nameless locations under guise of various expat Indian-origin recruits of american citizenship is exactly to make a ripe environment for a Libyan Spring in India. Replace tribes with castes and faultines between daleets and UC's, and tribals and UC's in eastern naxalwadi, 'occupied' kashmiris vs 7000000000 in Narth and u get the picture.

Purchase of american weapons is another game-changer. These weapons will be rendered literally useless in any actual combat and take away India's key developmental funds which may help build a bigger base. This is how they plan to tame India. There is no doubt that this project is important because from the pattern that emerges, no strong leader is being allowed to thrive outside of US, UK, FRA, ITL (because these are kind of puppets anyway), which makes the rest more ripe to sociological experiments and establishing change.

This thing may be more closer than you think.

This is far too clumsy an approach to take with India. Rather, if something so clumsy succeeds it says a lot more about the nation than anything else.

Also where comes this supreme confidence in the French ability to manufacture this whole affair within Libya, and somehow time it to coincide with the region-wide tsunami that they apparently also manufactured/knew was coming?

no strong leader is being allowed to thrive outside of US, UK, FRA, ITL

What does this even mean? Do you mean someone like Vladimir Putin or the CCP ruling council is not allowed to thrive or is there some deep profundity I'm missing (and why is ITL being included). Of course I'm not seeing particularly fantastic leadership from Western Europe either. The apparent puppet masters seem to have gotten themselves into loads of hot water, but perhaps that is all part of the brilliant plot, eh.

Even India's leadership has been better than many give it credit for.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 28 Mar 2011 12:58

UBanerjee wrote: Along with the monumental successes of the Western establishment there are also colossal blunders. The idea of a NWO pretends that these colossal blunders are also secretly a monumental success and therefore no matter how much the American empire declines in the future, the 'Elites' or Illuminati or whoever are secretly still juggling all the balls in the air, behind the scenes. This is an ahistorical distraction... what is happening right now in the Middle East is like a tsunami and the Americans, like everyone else, are trying to survive and direct the waves.

One needs a minimum amount of general knowledge to come to reasonable conclusions.

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 28 Mar 2011 14:51

Theo_Fidel wrote:Sirte has fallen!! That was quick. The Qaddafi regime is defenseless. The relief of Misrata is near.

Gaddafi clan command and control must be in complete chaos to allow such a quick capitulation. Either that or they decided that Sirte is quite simply indefensible as the maps above show. They almost certainly left all the heavy equipment in Sirte. I don't see how he can defend Tripoli by itself.

http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews ... KA20110328

spokesman in Benghazi had said rebels based in east Libya had captured Sirte on Monday, but a Reuters correspondent in the city said there was no sign that rebel forces were in control.

This was a psy ops by Rebels. Sirte is still with Gaddafi forces. Rebel forces are near Wadi Al Ahmar (Red Valley) about 120 km from Sirte

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Mar 2011 16:39

Theo_Fidel wrote: As a side note we should note one point. We have always shaken our head at how lightly armored the rebels are and how they flit back and forth without really reinforcing their positions. Yet the lighting speed of their advance also prevents the gaddafi clan from planning any sort of defense. No armored grouping could advance at this pace. With total air superiority, speead appears to be important, to prevent the enemy from improving tactics.

The theories are all there, written by astute observers in the past. For a state to survive the government must have a monopoly on coercive (armed) power. If you distribute arms among all and sundry, or allow someone else to give people arms - sooner or later the states armed forces will be matched or exceeded by some other force.

While the US probably has 200 million firearms in private hands - those firearms are kept subservient to the state by a powerful law enforcement system that is better equipped than the average arms bearer. Gun control is even more strict in Europe.

In my (off topic) view the question of the right to bear arms in India needs to be viewed in the light of what people can do with those arms. Pakistan is a case of India gone mad with private arms.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 28 Mar 2011 17:33

Folks, there are a number of posts regarding lessons to be drawn from the current Libya campaign in this thread in the military issues forum: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 7#p1052797

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Mar 2011 19:57

Folks please stick to the thread topic: Libya. There are many threads to self-falgellate. That means do not bring in India in to this thread.

Thanks, ramana

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 28 Mar 2011 20:10

So French secret service did it, AQ did it, USA did it, UK did it, and Gaddafi did nothing to help them in their task! In all of this Gaddafi was a saintly character. Gaddafi distributed arms to all Libyans, and let rebel cells develop and sprout and flourish. How long do we buy into the myths of western omnipotence and Islamist omnipresence?

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 28 Mar 2011 20:14

jimmyray wrote:This was a psy ops by Rebels. Sirte is still with Gaddafi forces.

Dang it. It did think it was a little too easy. I still think it is a indefensible position. Lets see how long this one takes.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 28 Mar 2011 20:20

External forces use advantages when they see one. It takes away from understanding the reality of the Libyan experience if we blindly swallow the impression that is sought to be subtly given in the international media - primarily by the West on one side and Iran-Russia-China axis on the other side - that they are the ones calling the shots. This is a desperate psy-ops to convince their respective clientele that they are still in control over things in the world. What they have done is simply jump in where they can do something and therefore back up their claims.

What the "rebels" or the rag-tag civilian militia politically motivated but with little direct arms and army experience - are doing - is exactly repeating the same performance - taking advantage of a situation where they suddenly find help coming from outside.

The key to such fractures in totalitarian regimes happens when section of the ruling elite defect - either out of growing realization of disconnect of the ruling regime from people, the consequences of such disconnect in inevitable crash. This is how almost all totalitarian regimes fall - if no external war is involved. It is the defection of disgruntled elite and joining forces with popular discontent - that triggers total decimation of dictatorial regimes who have survived for long.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 28 Mar 2011 20:21

The Gaddafi forces are on a raised area overlooking the highway, and they also have tree cover. So maybe wait for the night for some infra-red fireworks.

Arya Sumantra · Post by **Arya Sumantra** » 28 Mar 2011 20:30

brihaspati wrote:So French secret service did it, AQ did it, USA did it, UK did it, and Gaddafi did nothing to help them in their task! In all of this Gaddafi was a saintly character. Gaddafi distributed arms to all Libyans, and let rebel cells develop and sprout and flourish. How long do we buy into the myths of western omnipotence and Islamist omnipresence?

Sure let's start believing "it all started with a vegetable seller not allowed to...." type of "facts"

. No love for Mr G, but cannot support colonization redux.

Ironically the term "free world" was used the most in speeches by leader of largest imperial power, Churchill. Years down, his followers in the occident are doing everything to convert the most cherished virtues "freedom" and "liberty" into sirenbells for impending quasi-colonization of any country to be administered through puppets picked from the native community. Very soon new synonyms viewed positively will be created for these words owing to sheer aversion that people would have developed for these words.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 28 Mar 2011 20:45

Brihaspati-ji --- who are the good guys here? There may be discontented faction and people's movement etc. But do you really see a non-Islamist non-tribal-alq type of formation (a la Dostum and NA) here?

Dont know much herre, but your position seems to be "surprising" -- I frankly dont see whats in for India as a ideological position towards support for "progressive democratic son of soil" type of faction. (Even assuming GoI could get itself to make that position)

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 28 Mar 2011 21:08

Sanku ji,
my position is not surprising. It is a very cold calculation based on the ground realities of ME and North African societies as they have been evolving over the last 60 years. Gaddafi and dictators of his ilk came into power at the height of the Cold War. They were helped to power by overt or covert action by the West to use popular grievances against traditional regimes and put more authoritarian regimes more pliable to western interests and manipulations.

The primary aim was to insulate these regions from "Leftism" which was used by these dictators to eliminate all domestic opposition with tacit support from the west. In turn whatever the dictators perpetrated was glossed over. This was a cozy relationship that worked to some extent, but was also not without its costs.

The west always looks for dictators, monarchs, kings or single individuals - who alienate themselves somewhat by atrocities from their people - (but not too much), since such individuals would be more dependent on the west. The west is always in trouble in controlling large unruly democracies. Democracies, even if its theocracy overshadowed one like Iran, have too many fractions and fractures to be reliably and consistently under puppet strings in a comprehensive manner. Democracies increase the cost of indirect intervention - too many palms to oil, too uncertain, etc.

Gaddafi's involvement in pushing for rebellions around [IRA connection for example] is a dubious reputation. The whole Lockerbie case is dubious and could be a parallel to possible Saddam like cases of underhand collaboration with the western secret services. External secret services are sometimes shown as being suspected of encouraging a certain "domestic rebellion", but sometimes it is also about penetration and control - and such groups are used as more blackmail than unqualified support to rebels. the rebel groups are penetrated to be used as tools and discarded also as and when their utility is past or they are actually a threat.

I have repeatedly clarified that I do not consider the rebels to be a homogeneous "democratic" army, and that I consider them as a temporary compromise of various different political aspirations. The Libyan eastern movement has strong connections with factions within the recent Egyptian uprising. There are sections, idealists and dreamers perhaps, and a minority - who dream of coming out of the shadows of "mullahcracy". I have from the beginning clearly insisted that the Indian position should not be an unqualified support either way - but a conditional one. India should support movements that declare a commitment to liberal, modernizing policies, and opposition to any faction that wants to bring in a theocratic state.

I have also stated that it is crucial to support the weaker "liberal" factions, so that afterwards the mullahcracy cannot overwhelm and hijack this uprising. I want such liberal, even "Leftist" factions to be encouraged in all of ME so that they can engage in a struggle [out of necessity] with the mullahcracy, and over time they both weaken each other in a war of attrition.

That is the time when those societies would be really ready for modernization and democracy.

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 28 Mar 2011 21:17

brihaspati wrote:So French secret service did it, AQ did it, USA did it, UK did it, and Gaddafi did nothing to help them in their task! In all of this Gaddafi was a saintly character. Gaddafi distributed arms to all Libyans, and let rebel cells develop and sprout and flourish. How long do we buy into the myths of western omnipotence and Islamist omnipresence?

Exactly.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 28 Mar 2011 23:28

brihaspati wrote: I have also stated that it is crucial to support the weaker "liberal" factions, so that afterwards the mullahcracy cannot overwhelm and hijack this uprising..

Are there ANY in Libya Sir? That is the question. Serious.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 29 Mar 2011 04:54

Sanku ji,
there are. But they will be junior or perhaps even endangered partners eventually. Since India is not interested, [perhaps not even safe to be given any info to the state-side given the level of hobnobbing with ME now ] and those who can or are willing are already helping as much as they can - lets rest it here?!

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 29 Mar 2011 06:39

Harawah has fallen. 50 kms from Sirte. Next up Al Sultan & Hunawah. The start of the bypass roads.

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 29 Mar 2011 12:55

Frontline moves close to key stronghold as loyalist troops gather in Sirte, to repel the rebel advance. This report is from inside Sirte and gives some idea of how things might develop in next day or two.
Libya's decisive battle looms as Gaddafi troops head east

Libya's army is pouring reinforcements into Muammar Gaddafi's strategic hometown of Sirte against rebels advancing from the east under cover of UN-mandated air strikes.

Units of regular soldiers in jeeps mounted with heavy machine guns were driving towards the town on Monday as the frontline moved ominously closer to a key regime stronghold for what could turn out to be the decisive battle of the war.

In early afternoon a convoy of 15 Toyota Land Cruisers carrying groups of fresh-looking regular soldiers moved east from Misrata where some rebels are still holding out. But there were no signs of heavy armour or artillery – perhaps because these have been easily hit in coalition air strikes in the battles for Ajdabiya, Ras Lanuf and Brega over the past few days.

Lightly armed infantrymen, backed up by militiamen and civilians driving mud-smeared cars armed en masse by the government will be a far more elusive target for allied pilots if they are involved in a battle for a sizeable town or skirmishes along the coastal road

Residents of Sirte's beachfront area protested angrily at an attack on Saturday night which killed three men picnicking on a breakwater surrounding a small harbour, packed with wooden fishing boats abandoned by their Egyptian and Tunisian crews when the uprising began last month. Fragments of the bomb were embedded in a shallow crater at the end of the stone jetty – which had no conceivable military use.

Hatred for the Benghazi rebels has been fuelled by an incident on Sunday when pro-Gaddafi loyalists taking part in a peace march were confronted near Bin Jawad and three of them reportedly shot and killed, despite carrying white flags and olive branches. But according to some accounts armed volunteers were in one bus at the rear of the convoy.

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 29 Mar 2011 13:12

Theo_Fidel wrote:Harawah has fallen. 50 kms from Sirte. Next up Al Sultan & Hunawah. The start of the bypass roads.

This new reuter reports says that rebels have pulled back to Bin Jawad. Front line changing rapidly

Libya rebels pull back under Gaddafi army fire

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 29 Mar 2011 14:00

Libyan rebel leader spent much of past 20 years in suburban Virginia - http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/26/1 ... z1HyefpA5r

Another case:
The double life of a popular UW lecturer - http://o.seattletimes.nwsource.com/html ... ni25m.html

Libyan rebel commander admits his fighters have al-Qaeda links - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... links.html

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 29 Mar 2011 17:29

Libyan rebels lose Sirte; fight for Bin Jawad

Reuters reported that pro-Gaddafi forces chased rebel fighters down the road, making them retreat to Bin Jawad. "Rebels jumped behind sand dunes to fire back, but they gave up after a few minutes, jumped into their pick-up trucks and sped off down the road to Bin Jawad. Shells landed near the road as they retreated."

This was the first serious battle these rebels faced after coalition started bombing Gaddafi forces. The amateurish effort of these rebels does not inspire much confidence in their ability to reach Tripoli. The distance between Benghazi and Tripoli is over 1000 km. How are they going to maintain their supply lines in the hostile Gaddafi Territory? IMHO unless major western and central Libyan tribes turn against Gaddafi or NATO puts boots on the ground, the rebel have bleak prospects in western Libya.

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 29 Mar 2011 19:53

Libya crisis: Why Sirte matters to Gaddafi and the rebels
As Col Muammar Gaddafi faces revolt from the east, Sirte stands as his Stalingrad against the onslaught.

The grandiose city on the Mediterranean has been designated the political capital of Africa by Col Gaddafi. But its Soviet-style architecture looms as its most important attribute. As the front line in a developing civil war it offers Libya's armed forces a formidable fortress to defend. Its wide-avenues and reinforced concrete towers allow easy manoeuvrability and ample shelter against coalition air forces.
The rebel forces in 'technicals' – pickup trucks with heavy weaponry on the back – will be vulnerable to Gaddafi's dug-in fire power. Even if they storm the streets, the rebels will confront a resident population that is fervently pro-Gaddafi.

"Every one here likes Gaddafi, we want no change, we want to go normally about our business," said Daud Mansour, a member of Warfalla, Libya's largest tribe and a Sirte breadman.
"The people from the east are not welcome here we will fight them."

Sirte is a stronghold of the Gaddadfa tribe, Col Gaddafis own tribe and a traditional ally of the Warfalla. Sirte residents have a profited tremendously from his rule. Apartment blocs are modern and spacious and the local shops are well stocked. By contrast Col Gaddafi has starved resources from Benghazi and Toburk. There is no raw sewage running in the streets as there is in the eastern slums.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Mar 2011 20:12

With the NFZ mandate the Western allies hitting tanks etc under the guise of limiting civilian casualites, Libyan govt forces are resorting to Somalia/Taliban type miltia tactics, pick-up trucks with machine guns. This will in the end result in more civilian deaths.

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 29 Mar 2011 21:13

Wow That Was Fast! Libyan Rebels Have Already Established A New Central Bank Of Libya