Libyan War : Political and strategic aspects

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 29 Mar 2011 22:00

ramana wrote:With the NFZ mandate the Western allies hitting tanks etc under the guise of limiting civilian casualites, Libyan govt forces are resorting to Somalia/Taliban type miltia tactics, pick-up trucks with machine guns. This will in the end result in more civilian deaths.

NATO has already murmured about doing everything necessary to minimize civilian casualties - they have not restricted themselves to just "no fly". They just have to be more careful.

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 29 Mar 2011 23:07

Libyan rebels flee as Kadafi's forces defend Surt

Reporting from Bin Jawwad, Libya— A sustained counterattack by Libyan government forces sent overmatched rebel fighters fleeing eastward through this desert crossroads early Tuesday as heavy fighting engulfed the battered town. Lightly armed rebel gunmen at first fled to new lines a few miles east of Bin Jawwad. Rockets from the government troops' BM-21 Grad launchers exploded two miles away, sending up plumes of dirty brown smoke. The dull thump of artillery and heavy-machine-gun fire sounded around Bin Jawwad as rebels fought desperately to hold the town. At 2:30 p.m., a furious government fusillade stirred more panic among rebel volunteers and a few defecting army regulars fighting alongside them. A couple of hundred fighters suddenly abandoned their positions and sped east in a mad dash to safety.

Gun trucks racing three abreast filled both lanes of the narrow desert highway in a headlong retreat. Some trucks bulled others out of the way. Still others, slowed by snarled traffic, chugged eastward through the desert, trailed by clouds of sand and grit.

Two bigger, more chaotic retreats erupted an hour later, pushing terrified rebel gunmen up to 25 miles away from Bin Jawwad. Some fired their weapons into the air. They were cursed by other fleeing fighters for wasting precious ammunition.

A few fighters shouted "God is great" over their shoulders as they abandoned the fight but with little apparent conviction.

Only minutes earlier, those same rebels had been boldly proclaiming their intent not only to hold their ground but also to mount an assault to capture Surt. Now a stiff desert wind blew in their faces as they sprinted east, miles from the Kadafi stronghold, leaving Bin Jawwad largely undefended.

Among those fleeing were rebels driving trucks mounted with the opposition's most effective weapons: 106-millimeter artillery, heavy machine guns and recoilless rifles. Rebels firing from behind sand dunes shouted at them to turn around, but the fleeing fighters ignored them and sped east.

Most of the hundreds of fleeing rebels did not slow down until they reached the oil-refinery city of Ras Lanuf, 35 miles to the east, captured from Kadafi forces Monday but now directly in the path of the government advance. There, they fell into more bickering and fired more pointless gunfire at overcast skies that accentuated the mood of gloom and defeat.

The government counterattack began overnight with rocket barrages that scattered poorly organized rebel positions west of Bin Jawwad. By early morning Tuesday, dozens of panicked rebels sped eastward into Bin Jawwad, trailed by rocket explosions.

"When the Grads hit, we all ran," said Abdelsalam Ali, 37, a taxi driver armed with an assault rifle who said he had advanced late Monday to within 50 miles of Surt. "They're too strong for us."

As rebel gun trucks fled east, other fighters speeding to the battle screamed at them to turn around and attack. "If you don't want to fight, give us your guns!" one young fighter shouted.

Loud arguments broke out over the proper way to hold off the government assault. With no formal leadership and no coordinated tactics, the rebels fired helplessly into the air and sped up and down the desert highway in both directions, trying to decide which way to move.

Some fighters set up truck-mounted 106-millimeter artillery tubes atop sand dunes and fired at advancing government forces. Others turned their gun trucks around and drove cautiously down the highway, only to later flee the government assault.

Still other fighters crouched behind sand dunes and embankments along the Mediterranean coast, armed only with assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers. Some squinted helplessly through binoculars at Grad rockets exploding along the highway a mile west.

If rebel forces were to push past the city somehow, they might be able to move west to assist a rebellion in the coastal city of Misurata and then proceed to Tripoli. But the rebels have been unable or unwilling to move forward without allied airstrikes, which have grounded Kadafi's air force and robbed his forces of some of the heavy weapons they have used to overwhelm the rebels.

"Where is Sarkozy? Where is Obama?" asked Hussam Bernwi, 36, an exterminator wielding an assault rifle, referring to attacks by French and American warplanes and missiles.

Many rebels regard allied warplanes as their personal air force, though the U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing attacks against Kadafi forces threatening civilians does not extend to close air support for rebel forces.

Among the rebels fleeing Bin Jawwad and points west was Mohammed Fatallah, 42, a businessman armed with a submachine gun manufactured in 1949. He said he feared Grad rockets too much to join other rebels fighting to hold Bin Jawwad.

"If the planes will hit Kadafi's men, well, then I'll go there and fight," Fatallah said. "If the planes don't attack, we'll get pushed back even more." Rebels said they were lured by Kadafi gunmen into an ambush late Monday about 50 miles east of Surt. Bernwi and other volunteers said a group of government militiamen raised a white flag to draw the rebels close. Then they opened fire with heavy machine guns.

As per latest reports rebels have fled even from Ras Lanuf towards Brega. Its a lightning retreat that follows their previous rapid march forward

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Mar 2011 23:10

shyam wrote:Wow That Was Fast! Libyan Rebels Have Already Established A New Central Bank Of Libya

They need to if they want to claim the $30B from Gaddafi that is impounded in West. And recall the news anbout a UW lecturer who went back and became the Finance Minster for the opposition.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 29 Mar 2011 23:27

If the "rebels" are so disorganized, so without any military experience, so much without obvious structure and command - yet they are led by AQ, US, UK, France [how can they all collaborate with each other - meaning AQ!], the "rebels" must be carrying out some tremendous Chankyan tactical move! How can AQ fighters be present and still no action! Usually in up-the-wall situations untrained volunteer forces will either melt away or they will rally around those who already have combat experience and command structures begin to form.

The melting away does not seem to be happening! So?

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 29 Mar 2011 23:56

brihaspati wrote: The melting away does not seem to be happening! So?

a. There is no "real" Al Qaeda in Libya. Its only rebels with US military observers embedded coordinating the attack
b. Al Qaeda and Ameer khan are strange bed partners.
c Al Qaeda does not exist. Its all US hoax. Its only a ghost US special services branch who assert themselves as Al qaeda and do what their alter ego wants to

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Mar 2011 00:17

Bji,
Guardian reports about the London conference:

US paves way to arm rebels

Apparently US claimed the arms embargo on Libya was null and void with the new resolution.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Mar 2011 02:07

If Gaddafi sticks around till end of April the COW* need to use ground troops.

*What do they call themselves?

greek gods?

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 30 Mar 2011 08:08

Why Obama's Libya speech didn't matter

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... dnt_matter

Social science and the Libyan adventure

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... _adventure

Why Libya? Because we could.

http://rothkopf.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... e_we_could

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 30 Mar 2011 15:48

French intel has deployed special action team with rebels - Confirmed.

Maram · Post by **Maram** » 30 Mar 2011 15:54

ramana wrote:If Gaddafi sticks around till end of April the COW* need to use ground troops.

*What do they call themselves?

greek gods?

Ramana Garu,

French Presidential elections, start of primaries in US and cuts effects in the UK(stories of fewer pilots/ how much the intervention could cost etc.. stories the tories don't want for too long) mean libya will not be long winded.We hear nothing in open source. Something is cooking underneath.Merkel/Berlusconi wanting safe exit for Gaddaffi and his brood in return for laying down arms and ceasing hostilities is doing the rumour circuit..

watch the space....

vic · Post by **vic** » 30 Mar 2011 18:19

I think Egyptian SF imbedded with libyan rebels can do wonders! I wonder "new" Egypt is doing it?

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 30 Mar 2011 18:26

Any creation of Cyrenaica has the potential to bring coastal (Meditteranean) access to Darfur. This will create a political buffer zone between ME (including Egypt) and North Africa on the other. We could be looking at a divorce of the ME-North Africa hyphenation. This would imply that Cyrenaican oil would be used to pay for training/arming of refugees from South Darfur, possibly using Western small arms. Also means that Darfur starts paying for itself instead of being a sinkhole for philanthropic funds.

Cyrenaica-Darfur will be a melting pot for the rebels forming an East Libyan government, Darfur refugees turned mercenary and new AQ recruits. Fertile and vast breeding grounds for future OBL's.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 30 Mar 2011 19:20

The rebels are falling back from Ras Lanuf.

The worst appear to be the camp followers. They break and run at the smallest sign of trouble creating general panic.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Mar 2011 20:33

X-post....

Klaus wrote:The more one looks at Libya sans Qaddafi, the more it begins to resemble forces favouring TSP's Balkanisation, if there could be equivalence.

Cyrenaica == Balochisthan, Tripolitania == Sindh, Fezzan == Rump Pakjab. Rest goes into Pashtunisthan or an enlarged AFG.

Libya does look like a vastly simplistic TSP at the mercy of the West's zero-sum game.

Has anyone checked the Ralph Peters map of the New Middle East and see if it has any bearing on the current situation?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Mar 2011 20:37

I guess he didnt look West enough!!!

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 30 Mar 2011 20:46

Dynamics in EU, with shaky prospects of Euro currency, Southern EU nations want to keep Germany's influence down while trying to recreate Roman Empire post 3rd Punic War. This could manifest itself with Tripolitania being made coerced into a union with Tunisia.

Fezzan will probably become another wasteland just like Western Sahara, a rump state without the agricultural productivity of Pakjab.

All this can only happen when Q is out of the picture for good, probably left to waste away as an outlaw in some remote outpost in Fezzan.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 30 Mar 2011 20:56

ramana wrote:
Has anyone checked the Ralph Peters map of the New Middle East and see if it has any bearing on the current situation?

This map was posted a few days ago, however re-posting it for convenience:

The boundary line has not taken Darfur into account, my understanding of the situation is that US is scared of the prospect of giving Darfur coastal access to the Red Sea and IOR, hence the "purposeful" creation of Cyrenaica. The ME kings and mullahs also do not desire another Somali situation in IOR/Red Sea.

EU gets its secret wish fulfilled in the form of Tripolitania. Overall Win-win for the coalition.

vic · Post by **vic** » 30 Mar 2011 23:01

Theo_Fidel wrote:The rebels are falling back from Ras Lanuf.

The worst appear to be the camp followers. They break and run at the smallest sign of trouble creating general panic.

They are probably walking Libyan forces in death traps!

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 31 Mar 2011 00:20

After Ras Lanuf rebels have withdrawn from Al Brega. There are reports that elements of Chadian Republican Guards are also fighting for Gaddafi

Rebels in Libya stage 'tactical withdrawal' amid assault, they say

Bani claimed three sources that soldiers from neighboring Chad's Republican Guard are fighting as mercenaries for the Gadhafi regime, describing 3,200 to 3,600 "mercenaries and militiamen" from the country.

Libya rebels downplay Al-Qaeda charges

He told the same press conference that Wednesday's chaotic stampede of rebel forces back from a number of villages they had seized in recent days came after they were confronted by a force of thousands of Chadian Republican Guards.

"We found that the best response was a tactical retreat until we can develop a better strategy for confronting this force," he said, saying it numbered between 3,200 and 3,600 heavily armed troops.

‎

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 31 Mar 2011 02:49

The Libyan Foreign Minister Musa has apparently defected. But he is from the second or possibley third circle around Q. Now this will be interesting for all who think that US is playing on both sides [can you really play so and for long?]

Until uprising, Gadhafi’s son was on U.S. internship
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookou ... internship

By Zachary Roth zachary Roth – Tue Mar 29, 2:05 pm ET

When unrest exploded in Libya last month, Khamis Gadhafi--the youngest son of the country's embattled leader Muammar Gadhafi--wasn't around. He was on an internship program in the United States.

Khamis, who runs Libya's special forces, quickly returned to his home country, where he has led a military unit that has brutally suppressed rebel forces.

The internship, which lasted a month, was sponsored by AECOM, a Los Angeles-based global engineering and design company that has been working with the Libyan regime to modernize the country's infrastructure. Khadis made stops in San Francisco, Colorado, Houston, Washington, and New York City, meeting with high-tech companies (including Google, Apple, and Intel), universities, and defense contractors like Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. While in the Big Apple, Khamis even took in the Broadway show "Mamma Mia."

News of Khamis's internship, which was approved by the State Department, was first reported by ABC News.

Since coming home, Khamis appears to have played a key role in helping his father's regime in its violent campaign to quell the uprising. He has led the elite 32nd Reinforced Brigade, known at the Khamis Brigade, which reportedly has been involved in brutally suppressing rebel forces.

Vice Adm. William Gortney of the Joint Chiefs of Staff described the Khamis Brigade, whose headquarters were the target of U.S. Tomahawk missiles, as "one of the most active in terms of attacking innocent people."

On Monday night, Libyan television showed Khamis dressed in his military uniform and greeting people at his father's Tripoli compound.

A spokesman for AECOM told CNN that the company was "shocked and outraged" to learn of Khamis' military role.

AECOM added in a statement: "The educational internship, which consisted of publicly available information, was aligned with our efforts to improve quality of life, specifically in Libya, where we were advancing public infrastructure such as access to clean water; quality housing; safe and efficient roads and bridges; reliable and affordable energy; and related projects that create jobs and opportunity."

This isn't the first time that Gadhafi's sons--and their ties to the west -- have hit the headlines. As we've written, the regime was embarrassed after Wikileaks cables shed light on the lavish New Year's parties that another son, Muatassim, has held on the Caribbean island of St. Barts, at which Mariah Carey, Usher, and Beyonce have all been paid to perform. And the current crisis also has spotlighted the Libyan leader's own personal eccentricities.

(Soldiers and dozens of tanks from the Libyan military's elite Khamis Brigade, led by Khamis Gadhafi. take positions and check vehicles in Harshan, Libya, Feb. 28, 2011.: Ben Curtis/AP)

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 31 Mar 2011 03:15

jimmyray wrote:After Ras Lanuf rebels have withdrawn from Al Brega. There are reports that elements of Chadian Republican Guards are also fighting for Gaddafi

Rebels in Libya stage 'tactical withdrawal' amid assault, they say
Bani claimed three sources that soldiers from neighboring Chad's Republican Guard are fighting as mercenaries for the Gadhafi regime, describing 3,200 to 3,600 "mercenaries and militiamen" from the country.
‎

Who is paying these mercenaries??

Ameet · Post by **Ameet** » 31 Mar 2011 03:25

President Obama Authorizes Covert Help for Libyan Rebels

http://abcnews.go.com/International/pre ... d=13259028

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 31 Mar 2011 11:41

Who is paying these mercenaries??

Ravi Ji Gaddafi stashed away his money:
1) In western countries (much of those assests have been frozen)
2) Many African countries including Chad
3) As Gold and cash in Libya
4) Other safe heavens
Libya has been under sanctions during most part of his rule so he knows some ways of avaoiding sanctions and he has enough cash to last a long time.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 31 Mar 2011 11:56

http://www.mapsofworld.com/libya/

in the above map can someone give an indication as to which divisions are in rebels and which in Gadhafi's hands?

Thanks in advance

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 31 Mar 2011 12:14

Ameet wrote:President Obama Authorizes Covert Help for Libyan Rebels

http://abcnews.go.com/International/pre ... d=13259028

Well, it's not covert if it's all over the mainstream media outlets.

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 31 Mar 2011 13:05

ravi_ku wrote:http://www.mapsofworld.com/libya/

in the above map can someone give an indication as to which divisions are in rebels and which in Gadhafi's hands?

Thanks in advance

Ravi Ji Sirte and and area West of Sirte is in Gaddafi's control (with pockets of resistance in Misurata and Zintan). Benghazi and Tubruk in rebel control. Area between Sirte and Ajdabiya is currently contested and changing hands every few days.

Gaddafi and French were fighting a proxy war in Chad for over a decade during '80s. So obviously there is no love lost between French and Gaddafi. Beside Chad Gaddafi has been allegedly involved in many of the rebel/revolutionary movements in Africa and has his tentacles spread out in multiple African countries.

WNCNews – March 3, 2011 – After financing and training the insurgents and liberation movements for several decades, Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi is accused of using his influence to raise mercenary army troops from all sub-Saharan Africa.

Gaddafi for the 41 years of his power, has offered financing and training or supporting for the rebels in a number of countries in conflict such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Chad, Mali, and Zimbabwe. He also helped peacekeeping operations, provided assistance and built infrastructure.

Now, by offering the money from selling its oil to the south, Muammar al-Gaddafi is said to have attracted 25,000 mercenaries to fight the insurgency of his people who oppose his authoritarian regime. Head of the Libyan Human Rights League Ali Zeidan said, Chad led the mercenary group, which includes residents of Niger, Mali, Zimbabwe, and Liberia who are paid between 300 to 2,000 U.S. dollars a day.

Muammar al-Gaddafi has financed insurgency in Chad, including President Idriss Deby who is now in power, and many of the former rebels who are still living in Libya today. They included supporters of former dictator Hissène Habré and former president Goukouni Weddeye.

Most governments in these countries had denied involvement of their citizens as mercenaries in Libya. However, Mali officials made sure that hundreds of Tuareg youth from Mali and Niger have been recruited by Gaddafi. Ag Abdou Salam Assalat, President of the Kidal Region Assembly in Mali, said young people “go in large numbers (to Libya)”. He said the local government “tried to hinder them” not to go to Libya, particularly the former rebels, but it’s not easy because there are “billions of dollars and weapons” that wait them.

Muammar al-Gaddafi plays an important role in ending the Tuareg rebellion in Mali and Niger in October 2009. He was believed spreading the money in the amount of millions of dollars to the rebels.

“At least 3,000 ex-Tuareg rebels have been wandering in the wild since 2009, so do not be surprised if some of them have been recruited by Gaddafi…,” said a source of Tuareg in Niger who do not want to be called his true identity.

Muammar al-Gaddafi also had supported the insurgency that done by Resistance Army of Uganda, the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) of Sierra Leone, and former President of Liberia Charles Taylor who is currently facing war crimes tribunal in The Hague.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 31 Mar 2011 14:53

This is another fine mess the west has gotten itself into, to paraphrase Hardy.

Let us see the balance of forces in Libya:
1. The west cannot outspend Libya, Gadhafi has billions, whereas the west is finding it difficult to spend anything in the same league.
2. Gadhafi is on known ground. He knows the country better than the militias fighting him, a large section of which are foreigners.
3. Gadhafi has heavier weapons, and in much larger quantities than the 'rebels', who are now running out of ammo, out of soldiers, and out of spirit.
4. The west may have prevented Gadhafi from using fighters and choppers against the 'rebels', but Libyan forces simply took shelter in urban, built up areas.
5. There is no prospect of arming the 'rebels' with heavier weapons that they need, because they require months of training. Supplying more light weapons will not make any difference.
6. The longer this fight continues, the more apparent it become that this is a neo-imperial war that the west is fighting for oil, and the less support they will have in the international arena. Developing countries have already voiced strong opinion against the western interventions.

US is in two minds about supporting the 'rebels'. We all that the French shrimp jumped the gun on Libya. in this, he has acted like Mussolini. US says that it is now setting up covert operations for supporting the 'rebels', but stopped short of saying that they will provide the arms. This is an illustration of how little enthusiasm there is in the US for another misadventure that can blow up to a full scale insurgency. Obama is trying to avoid getting into a situation that will have him commit more US troops in another theatre of war.

So the summary is: Gadhafi has outgunned, outspent, outmanned and outmaneuvered the west. The west is running out of military options, diplomatic credibility, and time. They never had unity because this decision was forced upon the group by the French Mussolini.

I believe that the Libyan crisis will be resolved by a multilateral conference, in which the west will have to concede more ground, but will be given a face saving exit from the current conundrum. Possibly a younger Gadhafi taking over from his father, and a few cosmetic changes that the west can trumpet as 'historical democratic changes in Libya'.

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 31 Mar 2011 16:27

This claim is from Debka, not very sure about the authenticity but the commander of US NATO forces Adm. James Stavridis also claimed that Hizballah elements were present in Benghazi.

Libyan rebels sold Hizballah and Hamas chemical shells

Senior Libyan rebel “officers” sold Hizballah and Hamas thousands of chemical shells from the stocks of mustard and nerve gas that fell into rebel hands when they overran Muammar Qaddafi’s military facilities in and around Benghazi, debkafile’s exclusive military and intelligence sources report.
Word of the capture touched off a scramble in Tehran and among the terrorist groups it sponsors to get hold of their first unconventional weapons.

According to our sources, the rebels offloaded at least 2,000 artillery shells carrying mustard gas and 1,200 nerve gas shells for cash payment amounting to several million dollars.

US and Israeli intelligence agencies have tracked the WMD consignments from eastern Libya as far as Sudan in convoys secured by Iranian agents and Hizballah and Hamas guards. They are not believed to have reached their destinations in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, apparently waiting for an opportunity to get their deadly freights through without the US or Israel attacking and destroying them.
It is also not clear whether the shells and gases were assembled upon delivery or were travelling in separate containers. Our sources report that some of the poison gas may be intended not only for artillery use but also for drones which Hizballah recently acquired from Iran. Tehran threw its support behind the anti-Qaddafi rebels because of this unique opportunity to get hold of the Libyan ruler’s stock of poison gas after it fell into opposition hands and arm Hizballah and Hamas with unconventional weapons without Iran being implicated in the transaction.

Shortly after the uprising began in the third week of February, a secret Iranian delegation arrived in Benghazi. Its members met rebel chiefs, some of them deserters from the Libyan army, and clinched the deal for purchasing the entire stock of poison gas stock and the price.

The rebels threw in a quantity of various types of anti-air missiles. Hizballah and Hamas purchasing missions arrived in the first week of March to finalize the deal and arrange the means of delivery.

The first authoritative American source to refer to a Hizballah presence in Benghazi was the commander of US NATO forces Adm. James Stavridis. When he addressed a US Senate committee on Tuesday, March 29, he spoke of “telltale signs of the presence of Islamic insurgents led by Al-Qaeda and Hizballah” on the rebel side of the Libyan war. He did not disclose what they were doing there.

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 01 Apr 2011 00:01

This New York times report confirms what most of us were suspecting for past few weeks

C.I.A. Agents in Libya Aid Airstrikes and Meet Rebels

WASHINGTON — The Central Intelligence Agency has inserted clandestine operatives into Libya to gather intelligence for military airstrikes and to contact and vet the beleaguered rebels battling Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s forces, according to American officials.
While President Obama has insisted that no American military ground troops participate in the Libyan campaign, small groups of C.I.A. operatives have been working in Libya for several weeks as part of a shadow force of Westerners that the Obama administration hopes can help bleed Colonel Qaddafi’s military, the officials said.

In addition to the C.I.A. presence, composed of an unknown number of Americans who had worked at the spy agency’s station in Tripoli and others who arrived more recently, current and former British officials said that dozens of British special forces and MI6 intelligence officers are working inside Libya. The British operatives have been directing airstrikes from British jets and gathering intelligence about the whereabouts of Libyan government tank columns, artillery pieces and missile installations, the officials said.

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 01 Apr 2011 00:09

Gates, Mullen face hostile Libya questions
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/03/31/us.libya/

The opposition groups in Libya should develop a military Volunteers who are interested in Freedom and Democracy. They should also be developed into an organised groups. Then it is essential to reach Tripoli with a reasonable number of armed and trained fighters rather than simple enthusiastic volunteers. They should not clash with Tripoli people rather capture Qaddafi and hand him over to UN and International court of justice. Without taking much longer it is essential to reach out to Tripoli soon with rebels.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 01 Apr 2011 00:21

On flat desert stretches, guerrila tactics doesn't really work - and organized heavy artillery and mechanized units will have an advantage. But Q should not be seen as invincible. There are calculations on both sides, because both Q as well as the opposition is seen as equally fertile ground for future terrorist expansion in North Africa and Near East. Who is more likely to be under the thumb of western interests? That should give the answer as to who will ultimately be allowed to win. My initial projections was that west would like both sides to get reduced through a war of attrition so that none remains to stand up to western subsequent control.

But I think Q has taken actions that now make him less reliable for the west. Moreover whatever happens to him must also happen to his male successors- so either they all move to a refuge together or they are all eliminated together. There is intense backdorr pressure now on the "family" to move out, failing which they will be eliminated.

AKalam · Post by **AKalam** » 01 Apr 2011 13:07

Special report: The West's unwanted war in Libya

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42371074

sanjeevpunj · Post by **sanjeevpunj** » 02 Apr 2011 09:33

How Gadhafi's son interfered with Kashmir is mention in this article.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 848759.cms

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 02 Apr 2011 09:47

Exposed: The US-Saudi Libya deal
By Pepe Escobar

You invade Bahrain. We take out Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. This, in short, is the essence of a deal struck between the Barack Obama administration and the House of Saud. Two diplomatic sources at the United Nations independently confirmed that Washington, via Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, gave the go-ahead for Saudi Arabia to invade Bahrain and crush the pro-democracy movement in their neighbor in exchange for a "yes" vote by the Arab League for a no-fly zone over Libya - the main rationale that led to United Nations Security Council resolution 1973.

The revelation came from two different diplomats, a European and a member of the BRIC group, and was made separately to a US scholar and Asia Times Online. According to diplomatic protocol, their names cannot be disclosed. One of the diplomats said, "This is the reason why we could not support resolution 1973. We were arguing that Libya, Bahrain and Yemen were similar cases, and calling for a fact-finding mission. We maintain our official position that the resolution is not clear, and may be interpreted in a belligerent manner."

As Asia Times Online has reported, a full Arab League endorsement of a no-fly zone is a myth. Of the 22 full members, only 11 were present at the voting. Six of them were Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, the US-supported club of Gulf kingdoms/sheikhdoms, of which Saudi Arabia is the top dog. Syria and Algeria were against it. Saudi Arabia only had to "seduce" three other members to get the vote.

Translation: only nine out of 22 members of the Arab League voted for the no-fly zone. The vote was essentially a House of Saud-led operation, with Arab League secretary general Amr Moussa keen to polish his CV with Washington with an eye to become the next Egyptian President.

Thus, in the beginning, there was the great 2011 Arab revolt. Then, inexorably, came the US-Saudi counter-revolution.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MD02Ak01.html

It is interesting that the Saudi were distraught by US the abandonment of fellow-poodle Mubarak. But now they are supporting the rebels because their visceral dislike of Gaddhafi, who called them poodles on their face, is greater than their distrust of the US.

So, the Saudis hate it when a fellow Arab calls them poodles, and they dislike it when faithful poodles are abandoned by the US.

Obviously India can afford only to safeguard its own interests, but we must be clear-eyed about what is happening.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Apr 2011 11:30

I have posted a pic in other forums libya thread of what is speculated as a CIA contractor/JSOC type in Libya, watching the proceedings coolly from a jeep grand cherokee.

looks like a mean guy you would not want to cross at the best of times.

look is hispanic/north african - the better to blend into the woodwork I suppose.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 02 Apr 2011 19:48

Q has refused the "ceasefire" offer from the opposition forces and the opposition is now supposed to have come into possession of heavier arms and reorganizing along more traditional military formats. Q made a mistake in refusing. A refusal was all that the opposition would be needing.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 02 Apr 2011 19:51

Do people actually believe that nonsensical article above by Pepe Escobar? LOL!

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 03 Apr 2011 03:52

Caution over misadventure

G Parthasarathy
Rather than go along with the West and back its duplicitous decision to ‘intervene' in Libya, India has decided to chart its own independent course in foreign affairs.

Needless to say, Nato would not dare to act on anything the Russians do in Chechnya, or against Chinese clampdowns in Xinjiang or Tibet. Genocide in Rwanda will be long ignored, because it is a poor African country with no oil or mineral resources. A blind eye will be turned when a Sunni minority ruling elite in Bahrain clamps down on the Shia majority in the country, because the US’s Fifth Fleet has bases in Bahrain. But, if Colonel Muammar Gaddafi clamps down in oil rich Libya, he is subject to a ‘No-Fly Zone’ and bombed by the virtuous British and French with American backing.

This would mean that in developments in sub-Saharan Africa, Indian policies will take into account prevailing views and a consensus, if any, in the African Union. On Zimbabwe, the advice of South Africa would be more important than that of Whitehall. In Myanmar, India will seek to promote and back a consensus evolved in consultation with Asean. The views of the GCC would be of primary importance in formulating policies on developments like the Shia-Sunni divide in Bahrain. This policy makes it clear that India is not going to be a rubber stamp for Anglo-American and Nato policies of selective use of force against regimes considered distasteful.

Over 17,000 Indians living across Libya have safely returned home, thanks to commendable work by our Ambassador Manimekalai and her staff. Col Gaddafi knows that India is not exactly pleased by his use of air-power against his own people (as Pakistan is regularly doing in Balochistan and in its tribal areas). India nevertheless joined hands with Russia, China, Germany and Brazil in abstaining on the March 17 UN Security Council resolution on Libya because of the absence of carefully considered guidelines on the use of force amidst a raging civil war, the lack of specificity on the countries and organisations undertaking the military effort and the absence of any clarity on how a political solution would be evolved to end the Libyan impasse.

If ‘gunboat diplomacy’ was the hallmark of European colonial powers in the 19th century, ‘No-Fly Zone’ Nato diplomacy seems to be the order of the day after the Cold War. Lessons will be learned only after European powers, who have no appetite for real combat and body bags in tough places like Afghanistan, face the wrath of people opposing them, as the Americans faced by ill-advised military interventions in Lebanon in 1983 and in Somalia in 1993. Tired and tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Americans appear understandably more cautious in taking the lead in intervening in Libya.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Apr 2011 07:38

Did Libya sign the CWC as a chemical weapons power? If not by now there would have been numerous charges on Libya. The OPCW conducts inspections to certify if the Libyans have chemical weapons or not.

OPCW on Libya

Libya Signs CWC

Dont know the timetable to get rid of any stocks.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Apr 2011 20:39

The airstrikes for NFZ have shown the limited support of anti-Gaddafi forces. Its limited to Beghazi area. That means its a break-up like Eritrea or Southern Sudan and not a revolution. Also means the poor guys need all the help they can get or Gaddafi will extract maximum revenge.

Seeing signs of an Arab spring in Tunisia and Egypt and egged by Western psy-ops the Libyan song bird sang too soon. It could get strangled by Gaddafi forces.