RajeshA ji,
We live in a period of unprecedented and accelerated technological as well as social changes. I was listening to Webster Tarpley's youtube video interview on Libya's AQ fighters in Iraq, from habal's post in Libya NFZ thread. Apparently the town of Dourna in Libya has the highest concentration of AQ fighters that went to fight in Iraq. I have also heard that per capita income of Libya is among the highest in Arab League or African Union. Is it possible that first the misinformed well fed turns to Salafism or Brotherhood. When they become a little more well informed, then they find better techniques to fight for their cause, such as Gandhian nonviolent civil disobedience? Is it possible that they are fighting for self empowerment, but only the technique changes? We should also look at the unprecedented move by the Saudi's who has come to India, since they recognize that India is a power that is becoming increasingly important for them.
At present there is no cohesion among the Muslim countries of different regions, there is some cohesion between Arabs of Arab League, but that is also limited, as it is known as the club of Tin pots. But once people have been well fed for a few generations and then as they become well informed in a few more generations, then people seem to strive for self empowerment and there is no better way to empower than to unite in a larger cohesive group.
Shiv ji a while back had an interesting post about the dynamics between US, PRC, India, Pakistan, showing that US is always interested to create divisions and chaos in the Eurasian landmass, Zbig actually theorized the usefulness of this strategy in his writings I think.
I would argue that over time an Islamic block will emerge, once there is more well fed and well informed population among the populous Muslim countries. So using Huntington's civilizational blocs, the interplay will be between:
- West + Japan (as follower of the West in all matters)
- Sinic (minus Korea, which happens to be de facto satellite of the West)
- Orthodox (over the long term it will probably become part of the West)
- Hindu
- Islamic
- African
- Latin American
- Buddhist
As many have noted, I am always for larger systems, according to my pet theories, as long as it can be kept together in some fashion. From my accumulated personal experience of living in the West for many years, traveling and living in some East, South East and Central Asian countries, my gut feeling is that:
- West+Orthodox+Japan+Korean
- Sinic
- Latin American
are too far removed in terms of geography, culture or ethnicity from the other major groups which are:
- Hindu
- Islamic
- African
- Buddhist
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Clash ... _mapn2.png
(it always helps to look at the map as a visual reference)
all of whom intermingle in a large part of Eurasian and African landmass. The above 4 groups along with Latin America are also known collectively as the third world or global south. I think JLN and MKG, both had some vision along this line that reflected in India's leadership of the nonaligned movement of developing countries.
If it was possible to unite this part of humanity, as there is plenty of interplay between them, India, as the largest, most organized and stable democracy, automatically could take a leadership position in this group, which was probably a rationale for India's interest in NAM.
I think sometimes a bigger vision makes it quite simple to follow for the laymen, as it can be used as a litmus test for any external or even internal policy matter of any country within this group. Any action that will benefit the collective interest and foster internal unity of this bloc, could be considered as a positive development and vice versa. Water sharing, among a myriad of issues, within and outside the bloc, can be looked at in this light.
In this age of New Cooler deterrence, it is probably not wise to promote territorial changes of nation states, but if it was possible to form a bloc including the above four groups, then it might be possible to influence behavior of other groups with economic incentives or coercion, to get desired results.
Some regional integration movements in this direction already exist:
African Union, Arab League, OIC, SAARC and ASEAN
admitting that none are quite effective so far.
Just clarifying and expanding on the earlier ideas. My apologies for being OT for the most part.