China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Apr 2011 11:53

if the prediction be true, in 2015, India would almost be on part with Rus, Brazil, UK and France.

brazil is going quite good - exporting both raw materials , finished goods like machinery, steel, cars, aeroplanes and agricultural products too.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 10 Apr 2011 13:19

OT: Brazil is actually most like America, having vast amounts of agricultural and mineral resources(of all types), a population that is large yet not large enough to make it over populated. I feel it is these two countries that over the long term have the highest standard of living, will be most insulated to resource crunch and climate change, the two main challenges of this century.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Apr 2011 14:17

^^ I think what would really matter in those figures rather then pure GDP figures are the per capita income , debt/borrowing , budget deficit , unemployment ,education/poverty levels and inflation for each country

Picking just the GDP figures can be very misleading as they do not present the complete picture of health and well being of state.

Juggi G · Post by **Juggi G** » 10 Apr 2011 16:10

China's Navy : Rising Threat
A Global Challenge to America

By Joseph Callo & Daniel Mandel

Rear Adm. (ret.) Joseph Callo is a Naval Historian and Author of "John Paul Jones : America's First Sea Warrior."
Daniel Mandel is a Fellow in History at Melbourne University.

manum · Post by **manum** » 10 Apr 2011 19:35

if corruption in India is removed...china's GDP wont compare in next 10 years...
So lets hope so in august jan lokpal gets passed...

I might be sounding totally out...but still we are just standing on cornerstone of Indian story...

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 10 Apr 2011 19:55

The most important resource of any country is it,s human resources .It is the quality of human resources(not quantity ) that will in the long term decide the standard of living of any country and not GDP, per capita income or natural resources or area.Another critical ingradient is the quality of leadership that could harness these human resources optimally.

I believe India has the quality of human resources but the quality in leadership is severely lacking.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 10 Apr 2011 19:57

Samay wrote: We need a JFK type leader here and a a$$ kicking response.

Just curious.

JFK died in 1963. The USSR folded up in 1990. What sort of kick ass response is needed?

Sorry but I think a cut and paste of a US story into India is pointless.

After all in 1962 Soviet Missiles were placed in Cuba. So the US and USSR nearly went to war, but no war occurred.

In 2001 the Indian parliament was attacked by terrorists. Then India and Pakistan very nearly went to war, but no war occurred. Maybe Pakistan will fold up in 27 years?

Chinese troops on the LoC means that the next time their is action a few should be killed. Once Chinese dead bodies start going to China we can see whether the Chinese will continue to be like Pakis in Kargil and deny the presence of their soldiers or have the guts to admit that they are sitting in Pakistan. If we are going to have a 2 front war what difference does it make if there are Chinese troops or Paki troops. in fact I think India will kick Chinese ass good and proper - those guys have not seen combat for several decades. But they are good at building roads.

Samay · Post by **Samay** » 10 Apr 2011 21:56

^^ the story might be different but this is a similar kind of threat imposed upon us, means that we shouldnt keep sleeping,rather we make them realize that they have made a terrible mistake by interfering in India's kahmir which is paki occupied .If we just let them spread the way are spreading around us , then will suffocate us one day, there is no reason for us not to keep options ready like striking them in kashmir . Its time we stop them while they are spreading their ambitions at the cost of our freedom and peaceful living.

Since they are denying their presence that means they are cooking some evil out their .

If we go for their behavioural analysis,IMHO those people (chinis)they eat all kind of animals on Earth,worship one dictatorial regime which reigns in beijing,have no cultural background except that they were of very similar nature what they are today ,what sort of behaviour could we expect from them .? How can we expect them to behave the way we behave when the bodies of our soldiers arrive ? They will never let their own people know that they have casualities in kashmir . Their behaviour is very animalish in every thing. Not good for a vibrant and rich cultural country like ours .

And with commonsense ,we should not consider chini army as dumb as we always say.That mistake was made by the west in korea and by us in tibet. For them their objectives are the only thing no matter at what cost...

ashi · Post by **ashi** » 10 Apr 2011 23:12

shiv wrote: in fact I think India will kick Chinese ass good and proper - those guys have not seen combat for several decades. But they are good at building roads.

That is not what the military thinks.

India no match for China: Navy chief

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 11 Apr 2011 05:26

ashi wrote:
shiv wrote: in fact I think India will kick Chinese ass good and proper - those guys have not seen combat for several decades. But they are good at building roads.
That is not what the military thinks.

India no match for China: Navy chief

ashi ji: Please go through the article carefully. The chief has rightly pointed to the yawning gap in capabilities, resources and comprehensive national power, however in terms of a "match" - no such references have been made or even implied. It is DDM speak.

He knows what his job is and who his opponents are.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Apr 2011 05:36

Samay wrote:
And with commonsense ,we should not consider chini army as dumb as we always say.That mistake was made by the west in korea and by us in tibet. For them their objectives are the only thing no matter at what cost...

True - but this is what has been said by dozens of people on this forum for over 10 years "Do not underestimate the Chinese"

Why does nobody ask that India should not be under estimated? I'll tell you the answer to that.

I think it is because every one of us thinks that we have great insights into China's strengths and better insights into India's weaknesses. Put the two together and we have defeat staring us in the face. And that is even before any hostilities actually take place. Don't you think an actual little war would be good for us in the circumstances - given that we dhoti shiver at the thought of war because of all the one hundred thousand reasons we have that prove that we have had it against China?

I for one am all for some artillery bombardment and killing of Chinese in Pakistan. Are we going to lose that war? Fine. If we have not learned anything from 1962 - we deserve to get yet another kick in the butt no? Besides, what is China waiting for? We are so weak no? Why not solve the India problem once for all?

China is too powerful. China is against India. China has not attacked India because of providence and because they are so Sun Tzu and clever they prepare for war and don't do war so that we continue to dhoti shiver. War is the answer no? Because otherwise we will capitulate without war. Every word that we speak about China are words of fear and foreboding. Surely this is a good time for China to hit us. This is a good time for war. We know from predictions that we are never ever going to win.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 11 Apr 2011 05:45

abhik wrote:OT: Brazil is actually most like America, having vast amounts of agricultural and mineral resources(of all types), a population that is large yet not large enough to make it over populated. I feel it is these two countries that over the long term have the highest standard of living, will be most insulated to resource crunch and climate change, the two main challenges of this century.

The saying has always been (100 years): "Brazil is the country of the future and always will be".

Ashutosh Malik · Post by **Ashutosh Malik** » 11 Apr 2011 09:24

Ravi Rikye on www.orbat.com

-----------------
Rant I: Chinese troops on Kashmir Line of Control

That the Chinese military has been in the Pakistan-controlled northern Kashmir provinces of Gilgit and Baltistan for some time is well documented. The troops are there not just for the expansion of the Karakoram Highway to six lanes - a major engineering feat, but also for mining operations. But now both US and Indian intelligence have identified Chinese troops on the Line of Control in Western Kashmir. Mandeep Bajwa says they are present for intelligence gathering and as a psychological pressure point against India. To Editor, who has always been a hardliner on Indian security, this Chinese escalation shows there is no point whatsoever in trying to negotiate with the Chinese, or to build confidence. India has bent over backward to accommodate China in the last 15 years, and China has simply stepped up the pressure each time. India needs to stop fooling itself that on national security we can do business with China.

The only thing that is going to work is a very aggressive forward policy. So the old-timers are going to say, "right, and didn't Nehru institute the forward policy back in 1959 and we got ourselves soundly thrashed in 1962?" Correct. That's because Nehru, like Mr. Obama, was very fond of the sound of his own voice and of using beautiful words. When he formulated that policy, in response to constant Chinese intrusions into Indian territory following the arrival of Chinese troops to take over Tibet, there was no military power to back it up. That forward policy was just words. The new forward policy has to be backed with much more military capability than India has - and its at least ten times more than it had in 1959. This forward policy means confronting the Chinese at every disputed point, and pushing them back at every point. It involves building up power strike reserves and switching to an offensive posture in Ladakh and Northeast India. The Army is doing this, but the government is proceeding at a catatonic pace.

But won't a new forward policy risk war? Well, the Chinese don't seem to think so. They have a very aggressive forward policy and yet have zero interest in getting into a war with India. They are fighting with intimidation. And its working. India's Foreign Secretary, an officer who is both brilliant and calm, has already said that raising tensions over the new developments is not the way to go. Well, sitting there and getting pushed some more is not the way to do it either. Like any power, all the Chinese respect is force.

------------

brvarsh · Post by **brvarsh** » 11 Apr 2011 10:24

This only validates Indian Army's two front war doctrine. China and Pakistan were never two entities when it came to conflicts. Best you could do is to isolate one if confronted with another. But in any war scenarios both these elements have to be watched out for. Let the Chinese be told - If they cannot scare us with their presence in Tibet so they could not from across the LoC and this can only be achieved by proactive maneuvering.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 11 Apr 2011 12:00

Regardless of China's military strength, we have a major advantage both in Ladakh and the Northeast. Lets remember that only a small portion of the chinese army is aimed at India and their logistics are stretched inspite of 6-lane border highways. We probably have every square inch of those highways zeroed in anyway and there is little chance of the Chinese entering India like they did in 62. The only reservations I have are in south Arunachal-Burma border. Anyway, all indications seem to be that the army is preparing to fight in Tibet, not India.

On the contrary, the chinese probably think we are preparing to retake pok soon which would cut off their land bridge to Gwadar and give us a direct link to Central Asia. That is why they are building up their forces slowly so as not to raise an alarm. I believe they have plenty to worry about on this score both militarily and legally. AFAIK, the UN technically considers the whole of J&K to be Indian territory until the terms of the Resolution on a plebiscite are fulfilled, never mind the maps showing it as "disputed". The chinese, being a member of the Security Council, are in violation--a case of the policeman himself being the thief. I think this is a stick that India is getting ready to use, along with Tibet.

In a way, it is the only logical thing for us to do and it also means the end of the pakis as we know them. Maybe unkil is in on this one, even if he doesn't actually join in.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 11 Apr 2011 12:39

ashi wrote:
shiv wrote: in fact I think India will kick Chinese ass good and proper - those guys have not seen combat for several decades. But they are good at building roads.
That is not what the military thinks.

India no match for China: Navy chief

I have been interacting with Ex Naval Chief. IIRC, when we asked the question, he categorically denied that. He said, you should not see numbers, you should see capability. He said for example, with Brahmos, hostile ship cannot operate near 290 kms limit.

You can also read Chinese nuclear Submarine a concern

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 11 Apr 2011 12:56

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presen ... ft-carrier

Presenting The First Chinese Aircraft Carrier
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2011 16:54 -0400

Ukraine

After reverse engineering virtually every product known to man, the Chinese have now applied the same skill to the only component of their military that was so far missing: an aircraft carrier. Earlier today, Xinhua revealed the first official pictures of what will soon be China's first aircraft carrier, now expected to enter operation by the end of the year. As the NYT reports: "The photos of the carrier, the Varyag, which China bought from the Ukraine in 1998, appeared Wednesday on the Web site of Xinhua, the state news agency.
One thing about the Chinese: they sure can reverse engineer quick:

Andrei Cheng, the founder of the magazine in Canada said in a telephone interview on Thursday that the photographs published by Xinhua showed the carrier at a much more advanced stage of construction than he had expected. He said his magazine had gotten photos of the carrier taken in February, but that those photos did not show any paint on the ship’s upper structure, while the ones published by Xinhua did.

“The speed is very, very amazing, he said. “It’s surprised me.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Apr 2011 13:07

Acharya wrote:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presen ... ft-carrier

Andrei Cheng, the founder of the magazine in Canada said in a telephone interview on Thursday that the photographs published by Xinhua showed the carrier at a much more advanced stage of construction than he had expected. He said his magazine had gotten photos of the carrier taken in February, but that those photos did not show any paint on the ship’s upper structure, while the ones published by Xinhua did.

“The speed is very, very amazing, he said. “It’s surprised me.

The speed of painting?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Apr 2011 14:59

ashi wrote:India no match for China: Navy chief

An interesting phenomena if i may call so , Old news but the chief almost few weeks or months before retiring has been saying this in a forthright manner , not sure what is their motive but a near end of tenure would mean he does not have to be politically correct or worry about MOD pulling him up. Its good the Chief are speaking their mind.

nits · Post by **nits** » 11 Apr 2011 20:33

Change in China's visa policy for JK residents?

China appears to have relaxed its practice of giving stapled visas to people hailing from Jammu and Kashmir as it has given proper pasted visas to four journalists from the state.

The journalists are part of the media delegation that will travel with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday to Sanya in China for the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa Summit

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 12 Apr 2011 00:45

How do we deter a scenario where PRC strikes our ballistic missile production facilities with precision conventional weapons (ballistic &cruise missiles which they have in huge numbers) ? Should this also be brought under the ambit of nuclear deterrence ?

i.e, we convey a credible threat that such a strike (on facilities connected with production of nuclear delivery systems) will lead to an all out nuclear response with whatever little we may have irrespective of the subsequent consequences for/repercussions on us ?

IMHO this seems to be the only way to deter a situation where PRC/TSP do something hoping to create a excuse for PRC to undertake the above kind of strike. For otherwise, PRC has the ability to do that kind of thing and we have no conventional retaliatory capability of that kind. The "international community" will also be pleased to see our deterrent buildup capability destroyed in such a manner.

In short, a stand that a major conventional attack on production/research facilities connected to the nuclear deterrent should be treated on par with a nuclear attack on a civilian population center, warranting the same response.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 12 Apr 2011 01:02

The presence of the Chinese along a hot-border is a major concern.
In the big picture one big challenge which India faces vis-a-vis China is that India has very limited capability to attack the Chinese heart-land or industrial centers.

It is time for India to consider a Cuba. Find countries who are willing to host Indian missiles or host IN ships with missiles and back down if and only if PLA withdraws from POK. If hostilities do break out the ability to strike at the heartland (even if it is in a limited manner) is a valuable psych-op.

Perhaps India needs to construct small to medium size missile boats which roam the Yellow Sea with the sole purpose of launching salvos at the earliest sign of hostilities. They are going to be toast but the ability to stun the heartland during the first 12-24 hours can have a significant psych effect on overall morale.

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 12 Apr 2011 02:26

Sirji

Which country would risk total annihilation at the hands of Maoist rapist goon new-clear proliferating state by hosting Indian Mijjiles on their land when India has shown little resolve in holding on to what is rightfully hers hainji? Vietnam and Taiwan have a great future ahead of them and are certainly not in the same class of rabid ran-d-ee with gonorrhoea----Al-Bakistan. Instead of making grand plans of deploying mijjiles in furrin lands, we must quietly ramp up the military industrial complex and this is what I suspect is happening.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Apr 2011 03:22

Not the best written article, but for what it is worth:

India finally wakes up to Vietnam

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 12 Apr 2011 04:29

Mahendraji:

See the article by chakojoseph ji above. Vietnam has offered port facilities. It is up to India to figure out how to use it. I personally would like IN to have a permanent missile boat base in Vietnam; assuming hosting missiles in Vietnam is not possible.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 12 Apr 2011 07:27

Indian options, if cultivated are formidable. For all the talk about the string of pearls for China, We are the Chinese call it are one of the 8 legs of the crab, the crab being the United States. The eight legs are India, Japan, S. Korea, Australia, Vietnam, Mongolia, Taiwan and Philippines. What is not talked about at all is the encirclement of China by India. There is some level of independence from the US zone with some of these nations and also through Tibet, Tajikistan and of course through control of SLOC. The others in the SE Asian region can go either way but will probably lean Chinese.

But, if India is to get a respectable say in the above countries then an Indian MIC is a must.

arnabh · Post by **arnabh** » 12 Apr 2011 08:39

http://weapons.technology.youngester.co ... china.html

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Apr 2011 09:56

arnabh wrote:http://weapons.technology.youngester.co ... china.html

Is India Capable to Fight China?

Nice. But old arguments. As in 2009 article, but it would be nice to see how much progress India has made since.

However, what options does India have?

In fact, with Chinese on the LoC I have been wondering when the next Kargil will happen under the supervision if China this time around. When the first Indian artillery kills a Chinese, on a peace mission and Indian MEA still waiting for a report from the MoD ......................

neerajb · Post by **neerajb** » 12 Apr 2011 11:03

All this number game aside, Indian leadership simply doesn't have political will to fight which is visible in the form of status-quoist type foreign policy. IMHO what we call lack of foresight is actually lack of guts to take an offensive posture. Our political class is too meek to confront any potential adversaries in a pre-emptive manner. Any future war we will see will be fought at a time/place of our enemy's choosing which naturally puts India at a disadvantage.

Cheers....

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 12 Apr 2011 11:54

NRao wrote:
arnabh wrote:http://weapons.technology.youngester.co ... china.html
Is India Capable to Fight China?

Nice. But old arguments. As in 2009 article, but it would be nice to see how much progress India has made since.

However, what options does India have?

In fact, with Chinese on the LoC I have been wondering when the next Kargil will happen under the supervision if China this time around. When the first Indian artillery kills a Chinese, on a peace mission and Indian MEA still waiting for a report from the MoD ......................

Very old arguments saab. Moreover, the numbers quoted on the stockpiles are way off. This is the problem with western analysts, keep harping on numbers without any inside view or strategy. I will stick to Mr. Kakodkar who says we have a stockpile that will ensure our detterance pretty nicely.

bmallick · Post by **bmallick** » 12 Apr 2011 15:09

As suggested earlier by few people in the forum, India should increase its cooperation with Vietnam. Some have suggested to base a few ships in Cam Ranh Bay. My suggestion would be to base Brahmos missiles at Da Nang, Vietnam. Da Nang, was a major Airbase during the Vietnam war as well as a major Naval support Station, for US military. The most important Chinese Naval base in South China Sea is Sanya Naval Base, Hainan, China. It also the base for their Nuclear Boats, with extensive underground cave bases too.

The important point to note is that Da Nang is 280 Kms from Sanya Naval Base, which is with in the range of Brahmos, albeit at the edge of its maximum range. 50-60 missiles stationed at Da Nang, would virtually breathe down the dragons very mouth from which it plans to rain fire. Also Da Nang, would be able to target all Chinese naval ships that leave port from their main South China sea base and head out.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Apr 2011 16:34

I poke fun at Mrs. Nirupama Rao, but she TOO has stated that both side transgress. What she did not mention is that such events have been happening since the mid 60s. Then there was that little incidence when a number of Indian troops were air lifted behind Chicom lines? Lhasa would have been the next stop, when some political wheels started to turn ............!!

Anyways, fast forward to today. China, I am sure, has taken due notice of what the like of Kakodkar has to say and has, therefore, figured such dynamics into her equation.

I still stick to my two China theory: PLA and the rest. Also, I still stick to my theory that China will not engage anyone directly, Taiwan being an exception.

I suspect that this LoC stuff is to see where India will bend and possibly break.

True that India faces a designed dual threat in Islamic fundamentalism and Chinese hegemony. But those same threats will threaten more than India. There are ample data points out there right now to see that there is a strategic game play between various nations and China. India is not alone and none of the others can afford to let India be alone. Just no way.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 12 Apr 2011 16:49

shiv wrote:
Acharya wrote:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presen ... ft-carrier

Andrei Cheng, the founder of the magazine in Canada said in a telephone interview on Thursday that the photographs published by Xinhua showed the carrier at a much more advanced stage of construction than he had expected. He said his magazine had gotten photos of the carrier taken in February, but that those photos did not show any paint on the ship’s upper structure, while the ones published by Xinhua did.

“The speed is very, very amazing, he said. “It’s surprised me.
The speed of painting?

Yep, it colors the perception of everything

neerajb · Post by **neerajb** » 12 Apr 2011 22:44

bmallick wrote:As suggested earlier by few people in the forum, India should increase its cooperation with Vietnam. Some have suggested to base a few ships in Cam Ranh Bay. My suggestion would be to base Brahmos missiles at Da Nang, Vietnam. Da Nang, was a major Airbase during the Vietnam war as well as a major Naval support Station, for US military. The most important Chinese Naval base in South China Sea is Sanya Naval Base, Hainan, China. It also the base for their Nuclear Boats, with extensive underground cave bases too.

[OT] IMHO There is no dearth of ideas to our higher ups as we think, probably they have access to much better ideas than us armchair generals. Our decision makers see no incentive in implementing such aggressive maneuvers but only possible harm. They are shrewd and cunning ( that's why they are sitting there and not we

) but the inaction stems from their fear of unsettling their position/power. They will only move when the push comes to shove and that too in a way to maintain status quo, case in point Kargil and 26/11.

Cheers....
[/OT]

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 13 Apr 2011 01:29

I think the first step should be to put missile boats which regularly visit Vietnamese ports; sort of a second home.
This will send the right message without being too aggressive.

I have been wondering about the kind of vessel which could be used. Though a nuclear sub is the dream, in terms of cost-effectiveness it does not work, especially when you want to put them in number.

I am speculating here, but I have been wondering about a snorkeling sub/ship hybrid as a missile-truck. Most of the hull of the ship remains underwater and what is exposed is the snorkel and the missile tubes. The top of the ship which is exposed to radar waves be made of radar absorbing material with appropriate stealth shaping technology. When operating in littoral waters a boat like this can be relatively hard to detect and follow, compared to a surface ship. While it does not allow the almost guaranteed second strike capability of a nuke sub, it does allow for force projection. Though once id-ed the survivability is not high; it does allow for a rapid iron-rain capability to hit the heartland.

Aditya G · Post by **Aditya G** » 13 Apr 2011 01:54

Everybody and their uncle is swooning over PRC's 'restoration' of the Varyag and how well it has been done while there are a 1000 detractors over INS Vikramaditya.

It is an interesting comparison really, of the Varyag vs Gorshkov acquisition. While the former is more of an restoration of an unfinished ship to full/reduced spec, the latter is the complete overhaul and remodeling of a former sea going warship. Which is a better ship?

Who took more risk? On one hand China did the project at home presumably withminimum OEM support while on the other hand India gave the full contract to builders. Who is getting a better deal?

I cant help thinking that the controlled leaks give PRC a lead in image and PR control viz-a-viz India which ends up with only negative press.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Apr 2011 04:09

Pak and India cannot afford another war: Gilani

Which is why he has out sourced it to China.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 13 Apr 2011 10:24

Isn't Vik bigger than Varyag - 44,500 tons against 32,000 tons?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Apr 2011 10:41

No - the varyag is sister ship of kuznetsov and around 55t full load.
the vik @ 44t full load would be 10,000t lighter.

the varyag is a wider ship, the length is nearly the same. but more than that the varyag was designed and built from day1 as a carrier (albeit with granit silos under deck), so internally it will have larger hanger spaces and need no mods to make it a 'proper' carrier - it was already one , albeit incomplete when the chinese took her

it would take a subtantially bigger airwing of the same sized fighter (say Mig29K) than just the 10k diff in tonnage would imply...or better way is Vik takes a substantially SMALLER airwing compared to its tonnage cousin like french CDG carrier...due to its internal design being a compromise.

IAC-1 will likely carry more airwing inspite of being 10k smaller in tonnage.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 13 Apr 2011 10:54

Doesnt China have 2 kiev(kiev and minsk ?) class boats apart from the Varyag