Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

[ramana]

Do you get the feeling that NATO was parked around in Af-Pak waiting for something else that didnt happen?

Kunduz airlift shows that the US wasn't serious about fighting the Taliban. And Tora Bora shows the same with respect to Al Q.
All the while they shot up Saddams retreating troops in Desert Storm(Highway of Death) and in one case fired upon a surrendered armoured div claiming they feared them!

And now NATO pretends to fight the Taliban and yet they re-emerge!
its like time pass.

[V_Raman]

Do you get the feeling that NATO was parked around in Af-Pak waiting for something else that didnt happen?

India didnt oblige after 26/11.

[Pranav]

Do you get the feeling that NATO was parked around in Af-Pak waiting for something else that didnt happen?

India didnt oblige after 26/11.

Hmm ... that's a thought. Iran and the CARs are other areas of interest. Furthermore, western elites have stakes in Turkmen gas deposits and will make a good profit if TAPI comes about. Besides all the rare earth and copper deposits in Afghanistan.

[Klaus]

NATO + Turkey combine seems to have the goal of a Turko-Khuzestan using a subverted, undermined Kurdistan as a corridor to Turkish Gulf (renamed Persian Gulf).

Af-Pak parking location is just one long Sun-Tzu ploy of barking in the east while biting in the west (of Iran).

EU seems to have given Turkey some assurance that while they might not induct Turkey into EU, they will help it expand south-eastwards and wink-wink-nudge-nudge the process.

[shyamd]

Do you get the feeling that NATO was parked around in Af-Pak waiting for something else that didnt happen?

Kunduz airlift shows that the US wasn't serious about fighting the Taliban. And Tora Bora shows the same with respect to Al Q.
All the while they shot up Saddams retreating troops in Desert Storm(Highway of Death) and in one case fired upon a surrendered armoured div claiming they feared them!

And now NATO pretends to fight the Taliban and yet they re-emerge!
its like time pass.

Worse they have now given up control of certain districts back to talebs.

BTW, Extremists are breeded as a 3rd column against any threat - see now KSA is mobilizing or it could be that TSP is activitating its 3rd column. Whats the % of population of shia's in Pak? How serious can it get for them?


Pakistan: A new proxy battle ground for Saudi Arabia, Iran

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

With a broad Sunni Muslim bloc of countries lining up against an emerging Pro-Iran Shi’ite crescent in the Middle East, Sunni-majority and nuclear-armed Pakistan has become a proxy battleground for both Iran and the Saudi Arabia.

In response to the wall chalking and banners against the Saudi Arabia’s monarchy by the different Shiite organizations, the Pakistani madressas belonging to the Deobandi and the Salafi school of thought have also activated their cadre in support of the Saudi Kingdom. Last week one of the largest Pakistani Islamic Seminary Jamia Binoria Al-Alamia situated in the Pakistani southern port city of Karachi published an advertisment in the newspapers (see the scanned copy) in which it has announced a meeting of all clerics and the prayer leaders of the Karachi mosques to prepare a strategy “In defense of the servent of the two holy places” an official title used for the King Abdullah.

Earlier, Asia Times Online wrote that Pakistan’s Fauji Foundation, an armed forces entity, organized the recruitment of over 1,000 ex-army personnel for service in Bahrain’s National Guard. The small Persian Gulf state, which is headquarters to the United States 5th Fleet, is suppressing protests with the help of Saudi invasion forces. Bahrain’s ruling elite is Sunni, although about 70% of the population is Shi’ite. The advertisement for Pakistanis to join Bahrain’s National Guard was published about three weeks ago in a mass-circulation Urdu-language newspaper. Since then, the process of recruitment has continued unabated. According to investigations by Asia Times Online, the recruits have been promised 100,000 Pakistani rupees (US$1,174) a month, beside other perks including free medical and accommodation. People with names that have a traditional Shi’ite ring – such as Syed, Abbas, Ali and Hussain – are being overlooked. Iranian media have broadcast stories predicting a strong Pakistani role in the Gulf region; this resulted in Iranian-sponsored agitators in Bahrain killing several Pakistani workers for “collaborating with the Sunni rulers of Bahrain”.

This is all preparation now. Like I said tensions are now moving to stage 3 of 5. Next moves will be serious war exercises, war moves, war planning, mobilization. Iran's time is up. Only one way out, head to vienna and negotiate an end to this.

[shyamd]

Badaruddin and the Kashmir worries

Published April 5, 2011 ISI , Lashkar-e-Tayiba , Terrorism 1 Comment


Badaruddin Sirajuddin Haqqani will be the new face of the Al-Qaeda according to reports from Islamabad. The reports also suggested that he would emerge as a household name in the world of terror and he will be the most feared Al-Qaeda leader till date.
Badaruddin is one of the sons of Maulana Jalaluddin Haqqani of the Afghan Taliban which is closely associated with the Al-Qaeda. Indian intelligence agencies see this as a surprising move since the Al-Qaeda appears to be springing up some new names to head their organizational and operational activities.
Sources in the intelligence bureau say that this is something that they had been discussing for quite sometime and the fact that a member of the Haqqani network has been roped in to head the Al-Qaeda is only an indication that the group is planning on splitting into splinter groups. When groups are bifurcated into splinter groups it is an indication that the focus would be on particular targets and this would include India as well.
Under Badarrudin who is lethal, young and is being groomed into a full fledged terrorist, the Al-Qaeda would see a lot of changes. Badarrudin has been in the fray for quite sometime now and he has been trained under his father a fierce warrior himself who has been battling US troops in Afghanistan.
The IB says that the plan to split into splinter groups would be confusing for very many security agencies since these would report to one head, but would fight independent battles. Moreover Baddarudin is a surprise factor and popping up such a name would only confuse security agencies. Moreover springing up new names would also mean that security agencies would take a while to commence their chase since a whole load of new information needs to be derived on this man.
Coming to the Indian problem, a group under Baddarudin would be in charge of Kashmir. Under the joint operation of both the Al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban, Baddaruddin has managed to recruit nearly 26000 persons to wage a battle in Kashmir. In addition to this they have also formed 30 suicide squads for Kashmir alone. However the IB adds that this new faction would not restrict itself just to Kashmir and there is every possibility of it spilling into the rest of the country.
The entry of Baddaruddin into the main fray would not necessarily mean the end of the likes of Osama Bin Laden, Mullah Omar or Jalaluddin Haqqani. These men would continue to play a prominent part in the operations, but the introduction of young blood would only boost the two outfits, the IB points out.
Another dangerous ploy which can be witnessed in this is that most of these developments have taken place without the blessings of the Pakistan establishment. The reason why these groups decided to go aggressive against India is because they felt that the Pakistan establishment was going soft on the Kashmir issue. Moreover they felt that the groups such as the Lashkar-e-Tayiba which is completely under the control of the ISI was walking away with pie. The Afghan Taliban and the Al-Qaeda feel that the Lashkar acted only on the instructions of the ISI and they feel that being a toy in the hands of an establishment was not allowing them to wage their battle effectively. These groups want a solution while the ISI wants an issue alive is what the Al-Qaeda feels. Unfortunately for the ISI too this thought process appears to be catching up among the cadres of the Lashkar as well and they are finding it difficult to keep the group united.
The IB says that in the days to come one could find a more aggressive approach from the Al-Qaeda both in Kashmir as well as Afghanistan due to this revamp within the jihadi forces.

[symontk]

V_Raman wrote:
ramana wrote:
Do you get the feeling that NATO was parked around in Af-Pak waiting for something else that didnt happen?



India didnt oblige after 26/11.


Hmm ... that's a thought. Iran and the CARs are other areas of interest. Furthermore, western elites have stakes in Turkmen gas deposits and will make a good profit if TAPI comes about. Besides all the rare earth and copper deposits in Afghanistan.

You forgot the colour revolutions in CAR

[V_Raman]

V_Raman wrote:
ramana wrote:
Do you get the feeling that NATO was parked around in Af-Pak waiting for something else that didnt happen?



India didnt oblige after 26/11.


Hmm ... that's a thought. Iran and the CARs are other areas of interest. Furthermore, western elites have stakes in Turkmen gas deposits and will make a good profit if TAPI comes about. Besides all the rare earth and copper deposits in Afghanistan.

You forgot the colour revolutions in CAR

i really think that they thought that an independent kashmir was possible. peacekeeping under the auspices of the UN...

[Gagan]

No I think that the reason for this anti india surge is more sinister.

We have a clear parallel in history.

When the Pakistanis and their counterparts were fighting in Afghanistan in the 80s, terrorism in Punjab started.
IG mismanaged a political situation there - or rather certain elements in Punjab were made certain promises from outside of India and the situation in punjab detriorated inspite of GoI trying to manage it as best as they could.

Now the Pakistanis are going to KSA and if Gulf War 3 happens, will move something like 4 corps worth of military to their western borders.

India can't be trusted, so in addition to the GCC princes speaking to GoI, the US keeping south block and PMO in the loop, the chinese deploying in POK, there is a plan to keep the IA busy at the LOC and within.

If this theory is true, this level of organization to keep India at bay is clearly beyond poor old Pakistan's organizational abilities.

I think this is being refferred to here in that article.

[V_Raman]

So India is being forced to comply? Then the whole reason for USA being there is to preserve its munna. All our afpak investments are waste?

[devesh]

All the economic investment is absolute waste if it cannot be protected and cannot be used to further geopolitical interests. all the nonsense about responsibility, peaceful development of economy is BS. as it stands right now, India's investment in Afghanistan, though significant means absolutely nothing when the broader game is considered. the commentators who think "economic priorities should be first," are deluding themselves into believing that purely economic perspective can achieve strength for India.

in Telugu there is a proverb for this kind of stuff (i.e. India's involvement in Afghanistan): "budidalo posina panneeru" which means "delicious sweet which is poured in mud."

[narmad]

Indian built Zaranj-Delaram Highway under Taliban Control

V K Shashikumar | 2011-04-12 11:49:00

The Zaranj-Delaram highway in Afghanistan built by India and handed over to the Afghan government on January 22, 2009 is now under Taliban control. Within two years of the commissioning of this strategic highway, Taliban effectively dominates this road link, which has in turn allowed it to take control of the Nimroz province
But the unwillingness of the ISAF to provide security cover to this strategic highway and the inability of the Afghan National Army to secure Indian investments and projects has led to a colossal waste of Indian funds earmarked for Afghanistan's development. India's reluctance to commit troops on the ground to secure Indian development projects has led to the winding down of several projects that were received with tremendous enthusiasm by Afghans.

The Taliban take-over of the ambitious Zaranj-Delaram road project, India's plan of providing Afghanistan with a shorter route to the sea, via the Iranian port of Chabahar, has been derailed.
On its part Iran is building a new transit route to connect its city of Milak to Zaranj in Afghanistan, and has already completed an important bridge over the Helmand River.

But the forty year old Maulavi Rasheed, brought up in a Jihadi/Mujahid household in the Disho district of Helmand province, has successfully grounded the ambitious plans of the Indian policy makers.
According to the Taliban the American troops have virtually vacated Nimroz province and are currently concentrated in the provincial headquarters in Delaram, which also has a small airfield.
Ever since the Zaranj-Delaram road was commissioned in 2009, the American forces found it convenient to move men and material along this route. But with the Taliban taking control of this strategic highway, American military operations in Nimroz have been badly hit.

Till 2009 the level of India's assistance to Afghanistan had reached USD 750 million, making it the 5th largest bilateral donor after the US, UK, Japan and Germany. Given below are a list of projects that were initiated under Indian development assistance:

• Construction of a 220 KV Double Circuit Transmission Line from Pul-e-Khumri to Kabul and a 220/110/20 KV sub-station at Kabul under the North-East Power System project to bring power from neighbouring countries to Kabul (USD 111 million);
  Humanitarian food assistance of one million tons of wheat in the form of high protein biscuits distributed to 1.4 million schoolchildren every day under the School Feeding Programme, administered through the World Food Programme (USD 100 million);
  Construction of a 218 kilometre road from Zaranj to Delaram to facilitate movement of goods and commodities from Afghanistan to Iranian border (USD 175 million - approval for an additional USD 91 million is being sought);
  Reconstruction and completion of Salma Dam Power Project (42 MW) in Herat province (USD 116 million - approval for additional USD 36 million is being sought);
  Construction of Afghan Parliament (USD 83 million);
  Reconstruction of Indira Gandhi Institute of Child Health in Kabul in various phases, including reconstruction of surgical ward/polyclinic/diagnostic centre (USD 6.7 million);
  Reconstruction of Habibia School (USD 5.1 million);
  Digging of 26 tube wells in North West Afghanistan (USD 1.2 million);
  Gifting of vehicles (400 buses, 200 mini-buses, 105 municipality and 285 army vehicles) (USD 25 million);
  Setting up of 5 toilet-cum-public sanitation complexes in Kabul (USD 0.9 million);
  Telephone exchanges in 11 provinces connecting to Kabul (USD 11.1 million);
  Expansion of National TV network by providing an uplink from Kabul and downlinks in all 34 provincial capitals, contributing towards greater integration of the country (USD 6.8 million).

[sum]

^^ So much for economic involvement in A'tan without corresponding security push....

[ramana]

It could be US CBM to "good' Taliban to allow them to takeover Indian investments. So lets not start berating India.

[ramana]

Nightwatch 4/12/2011

4/12/2011

Turkey-Afghanistan: Turkey is willing to consider hosting a political office for Taliban militants in Afghanistan in order to facilitate peace talks, but there has been no official application to the Turkish government to host an office or peace talks, according to a Turkish Foreign Ministry official. Arsala Rahmani, a member of Afghanistan's High Peace Council, said Turkey is making plans for the office, but it will be some time before they are worked out.


Comment: This brief news item is significant for several reasons. It is the third Turkish offer in the past month to mediate or help ease an active regional conflict involving an Islamic country. Turkey is branding itself as an agent for peace among and between Muslims, excepting the Kurds. Turkey has about 1,800 soldiers in Afghanistan, mainly responsible for security in Kabul and explicitly not authorized to engage in combat operations.

Turkey has a history of providing limited respectability, in the form of office space and access to communications and propaganda facilities, for Islamic dissident groups, such as the East Turkestan insurgent movements in Xinjiang, China. Apparently it is willing to provide similar stature for anti-government elements from Afghanistan. The Turkish initiatives are about Muslims, however. They have not advanced peace in China and would not help the US mission in Afghanistan.

Finally, the Turkish offer carries an element of confusion because Pakistan unofficially allows the Afghan Taliban associated with Mullah Omar and the Quetta-Karachi Shura freedom of movement between Karachi and Quetta and points west. Omar and his cohorts do not need Turkish good offices.

However, there are at least three other major anti-government Afghan movements that would benefit from office space and communications facilities that were safe from US drone attacks. Thus far, the Turkish offer does not extend to them.

I think Turkey is turning Islamist.

[JE Menon]

Drip by drip. Yes.

[ramana]

Ravi Karumanchi and Ajatshatru, Can you guys examine the legal issue of drone attacks and the doctrine of Just War? Please examine form all aspects of Western/Eastern conduct of wars. Do this in GDF and open anew thread.

Google cache on Drones and Just War

[Johann]

Drip by drip. Yes.

But what kind of Islamism?

Theoretically Pol Pot and Allende were both Marxists, and both were communists. The reality was that they couldn't be more different.

Turkey may never become part of the EU, but the AKP's vision for Turkey is as a physical, political and cultural bridge between the EU, Russia, ME and Central Asia.

They believe that there's a new silk road in the making, and that means having relationships with everyone in order to do business.

This emphasis on trade, finance and influence couldn't be more different than Khomeini who thought in terms of exporting a revolution, or the Pakistanis who think they can become some sort of new Mughal army, or the Taliban which wants the 7th century back. Its the difference between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

[JE Menon]

>>But what kind of Islamism?

My feeling is that Turkey will revert to a sort of moderately aggressive Islam with a strong emphasis on ethnic identity, anticipating the following:

1. A slow, but steady, erosion of the Kemalist ideological framework.
2. Democratic impulses that will favour strategic distancing from the West in identity terms, while getting ever more integrated and powerful financially and economically.
3. A closer identification with Turkic countries in Central Asia, through shared ethnicity, and with the MENA through shared faith - although we are likely to find that Turkey gives more than it takes in terms of the faith interpretation.
4. The slow, but steady, emergence of Turkish Islam as an attractive force in the rest of the Islamic countries due to its example as a successful, strong and confident entity while facing non-Islamic countries.

I do not anticipate this Islam will by any means be of the Taliban variety, or the insular, rigid and unconfident type in Pakistan... It is probably going to be more relaxed internally, but harder on the outward facing side. That's why of late I've begun to bring in the crusades period in my posts. Looks to me that we are entering an era where the Islamic World, so to speak, is going to pull its socks up and get confrontational. The patchwork of alliances, the highly nuanced positions being taken by various powers, the multitude of often conflicting local interests, the side-deals being struck - all remind me of the 11-14th century confrontation. And of course, it was the Turkish Sultans, or their atabegs, who were paramount then, though not alone. The Kurds helped, and even an Armenian origin king or two - the Arabs even then did not have much of an overall leadership role, except in places. As of course you know.

[ramana]

JEM, So at a higher level the US getting bogged down in Iraq and Af_Pak has led to a strategic reversal of MENA historical process set in motion with Napoleon's foray into Egypt?

[brihaspati]

Good to see people coming around finally to my view - that Turkey will change more and more towards Islamism [ however you choose to clothe it]. But weren't people convinced that Kemalism and "westernization" would never allow it to happen?

The key maybe to look at ME as a block in between two of the largest producers and consumers of wealth - the European and the South and East of Asia. As in past times, people in between have lived off a cut from the flow in between these two production and market hot-houses. So each corner of the Isalmist geography tries to claim the leadership and monopoly over the Ummah so that they can then use such a mobilization to stake a claim to control the entire flow.

At the moment the potential claimants are Turkey, Egypt, KSA, Iran. Pak is a side scrambler by virtue of its geography and nuisance value, Syria, Malaysia and Indonesia are side players too - but for different reasons. But the four main contestants may actually make the thing more interesting - they could all compete to have a stake in AFG. That does have consequences for us.

[Johann]

JEM,

Thirty percent, at least of Turkey is Alevi - their Islam is very different from Sunni Islam.

The Alevis, like the large numbers of immigrant liberal Slavic Muslims in the Balkans like the Bosniaks that Ataturk could succeed.

The Alevis, and the Rumelian Turks are not going anywhere.

In the end I think Turkey's political landscape will end up looking a lot like America in some ways, with tussle between cosmopolitan and chauvanist kinds nationalism, but nevertheless remaining open for business with all.

On the whole its a massive improvement over the previous kind of reactionary Turkish Islamism under Erbakan (who just kicked the bucket), and its a huge improvement over the kinds of Islamism that Erbakan's inspiration, the Muslim Brotherhood offers.

But yes, I agree its going to take off in the Sunni Arab world. I saw personally that in Syria last summer.

[ramana]

The tendency in Sunni Islam after the Afghan Jihad is towards Wahabandi. All these lite versions will be swept away. Its part of revival of the Arabic core of Islam.

[JE Menon]

>>JEM, So at a higher level the US getting bogged down in Iraq and Af_Pak has led to a strategic reversal of MENA historical process set in motion with Napoleon's foray into Egypt?

Ramana, I'm not sure if I understand your question right, but if you are asking whether the apparent American difficulty in Iraq/Af-Pak has led to an erosion of their (or the West's) strategic position in the MENA region, then the answer is no I don't think so. The American behemoth has a long way to go before it can be anything like pushed out of the area. It's influence can be diluted, but that's about it - and that too only by allowing the influence of an other non-Arab powers (China, Russia, EU, India), not from internal strength. If anything, the relative power differential between the West and the Middle East is far starker now than during the late 11th century when the crusades began.

I'm wary of being definitive about historical processes, and causal relationships. The reason I bring in the crusades is that there are similarities to what is happening now, not that they are identical or that there is a direct causal link from one to the other. Having said that, these sort of causal relationships and linkages are strongly resonant in the Middle East, especially among the Arabs. They talk about it a lot, and really see direct connections. But it must be acknowledged that the Crusades did have a tremendous impact on them. Although, and this is why I find the parallels interesting, within 10 years after the first Franj arrived in the Levant, two separate Islamo-Frankish alliances were facing them across the battlefield owing to a temporary convergence of interests. Don't expect things to be much different now.

[ramana]

Thanks for you input. What I ment was Turkey is back in Asia and has turned Eastward. At time of Napoleon's foray it was the "Sick man of Europe"! And Arabs are trying to get local allies again and not relying on far away supporters. The advent of Europe's foray into Arab lands was the rise of Arab Nationalism and a trend towards modernity. I agree one can't look back to future, but its similar to the past if not the same. I guess you are saying the same.

[Klaus]

Current anti-corruption developments in India (such as a law forcing disclosures of Swiss bank accounts), if enacted could lead to Western Europe to rally around France, the article talking about UK's proposal to share nuclear assets with France is another indication that things are moving in this direction. I would take France's banning of the burqa and Switzerland's issues with minaret construction as suitable datapoints in this argument.

Perhaps too much is being read into clash of the civilizations, but is a France vs Turkey 'cold war' on the cards?

[ramana]

i.e. the old Franj vs sublime Porte!

[RamaY]

There it starts again. Pakis must be trying to scrape another layer from Af-Pak theater before they go to GCC.

Afghanistan: Bomber kills Kunar elder Malik Zarin
A suicide bomber has killed at least 10 people in an attack on tribal elders in eastern Afghanistan, the interior ministry has said.

Pro-government tribal elder Haji Malik Zarin was killed in the blast in Kunar province near the Pakistan border.

Mr Zarin, a close ally of President Hamid Karzai, died along with his son and another family member.

[JE Menon]

Johann,

My feeling is that the sub-identities like the Alevis and the Rumelians etc will be subsumed under the larger Turkic ethnicity. No doubt though that your insight that the Turkish space will come to represent the US in many ways is a distinct possibility. I also agree that the Turks will be open to business with all. This has become clear over the past few years in particular, with their commercial drive into the surrounding countries having come into its own.

No question that it will be different from the prickly Islamism of Necmettin Erbakan. I anticipate a more confident version, a more relaxed Islam, but at the same time a more firm and perhaps even combative Islam that will act as an inspiration to some Arab countries. This could mean, therefore, a far more complicated and difficult strategic environment for many of the weaker countries of the EU, especially if the EU itself is unable to speak as one. For the Arabs, they will once again be caught between having to emulate the Turks and maintaining their own self-image as primus inter pares among the Muslims of the world. It will be a friendship with clenched teeth on the Arab side and cello-taped grins on the Turkish side.

Unless, of course, Turkey itself faces some circumstances which affect its overall ability to carry on as it is doing now - which is of course by no means inconceivable.

[ramana]

JEM<,

On what basis will there be a Turkish Islam in other words based on Naqshbandi sufis able to assert over Wahaabandis? Arabs will be primus inter pares as they have possession of Hejaz. The Ottomons had the same right when they posses Hejaz. They no longer do as T.E. Lawrence made sure.

[JE Menon]

One could say that it will be a "state" Islam as it is now - with all the sects etc to be functioning more or less as it is now, without fear of bloodshed - as the state will safeguard against it. We are not likely to see a Pak like situation in Turkey because their ethnic identity is very strong, perhaps stronger than their religious identity. It is not unusual to see signs like "Happy is he who calls himself a Turk" in Turkey and areas where Turks live. I have never seen a sign "Happy is he who calls himself a Muslim"... The Arabs feel they are the first among equals in the Ummah because Prophet Mohammed came out of the Arabian Peninsula. The Turks, however, don't have much regard for such sentiments.

[Johann]

Ramana,

Pan Islamism doesnt have a lot of traction in the middle east, but religious nationslism does.

That is why Hamas with its Islamic Palestinian nationalism has more appeal than either Fatah or Al-Qaeda for many.

That is why Khomeini's brand of Pan-Islamism had to be quietly abandoned for a more nationalist kind of Iranian Islamism.

In Turkey's case they have their own particular strain - Said Nursi, and then later Fetullah Gulen. If you read up on them you get a strong idea of what a distinctly Turkish Islamism can look like. It is part of the inspiration for the AKP

Unlike the MB/Ikhwan, it started out with an orientation towards constitutional government and multi-party elections, and religious co-existence.

JEM,

I don't think that Turkey's foreign policy under the AKP looks that different from Brazil or Qatar honestly. Its about challenging the West symbolically still maintaining close economic ties, and even strategic ties in some cases.

In some ways their Islamism is a kind of an empty vessel that you can pour anything you need in to, so long as you tie a colorful scarf on to it.

The Arab relationship with Turkey is never going to be quite what the Arabs want, because its driven by a mix of Turkish public opinion and Turkish national interests. For example right now that means sympathy for Palestine, indifference to the Libyan revolt, and pressure on Syria to reform. To make a very lose analogy its like the United State's relationship with Europe.

[abhishek_sharma]

Two to Tango: David Miliband has a plan for bringing both sides to the negotiating table in Afghanistan. But getting the Taliban to show up won't be easy.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... o_to_tango

[ramana]

Its not in Indian interests for Turkey to become the overseer of MENA. KSA and GCC are ok.

[Johann]

Its not in Indian interests for Turkey to become the overseer of MENA. KSA and GCC are ok.

Ramana, the place where Turkeys influence is going to be stronger is the Levant (esp Syria), Caucasus, northern Iraq and the Balkans.

Turkish power will come at the expense of Egypt, Iran (via Hezbollah) and the EU, and perhaps Russia. Winners and losers can not just be categorised in terms of East or West, North or South, Muslim or Non-Muslim, Sunni or Shia.

Still I don't think they're going to really affect the balance of power in the Indian Ocean Region, or Central Asia.

[JE Menon]

Johann,

>>In some ways their Islamism is a kind of an empty vessel that you can pour anything you need in to, so long as you tie a colorful scarf on to it.

That's exactly what I wanted to convey when I said "state" Islam...

Plus I agree that Turkey's foreign policy is essentially pragmatic, if incrementally assertive - but whose isn't these days? The only "blackness in the dal" so to speak is that there is this layer of Islam slapped over it, and that can allow Turkey's to punch above its weight class to the detriment of many others.

Brihaspati,

Some of us have been speaking about the inevitable Islamisation of Turkey, or the erosion and eventual eclipse of Kemalism, for a very long time on BRF. But it will not happen soon and will not resemble anything like the frothing at the mouth insanity that is coming out of parts of MENAFPAK today... although bits and pieces of that will be there too.

[KLNMurthy]

Its not in Indian interests for Turkey to become the overseer of MENA. KSA and GCC are ok.

Would you elaborate?

[ramana]

India has hisotrical connections to Arabia but not to Turkey. It was the Turkish tribal invasion of Inda that led to Islamization in India. Very zimble. India does not have leverages with Turkey.

meanwhile:

Nightwatch


4/13/2011


On the recent spat betwqeen TSP and US on intel matters:

Pakistan: Two US remotely piloted aerial vehicles launched missile attacks that killed at least six people near the Afghan border in South Waziristan, Pakistan, according to Pakistani intelligence official on 13 April. The attacks targeted a vehicle and a motorcycle in a forested area.


Comment: In an intelligence system officially guided by the Director of National Intelligence's directive and emphasis on integration, a drone attack in Pakistan seemingly should not be approved when the head of Pakistani intelligence is visiting United States intelligence leaders to protest missile attacks by drones. The DNI nor the Director of CIA seem to be in control of the drone attacks.

The strain between the US and Pakistani intelligence is genuine, but not because of the drone attacks. The Pakistanis are putting distance between themselves and the US in order to gauge their vulnerability based on the extent of the drawdown of US forces that is to begin in mid-2011. In that context, the intelligence dispute is a cover for larger strategic concerns.

There are several issues. The threat to Pakistan does not arise from the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan has not hunted or pursued the Quetta/Karachi Shura leaders from Afghanistan. They remain allies of Pakistan.

Pakistan has never accepted the US conflation of an AF-Pak enemy. While groups might cooperate, the Afghan Taliban who take guidance from leaders in Pakistan are not hostile to the Pakistan government. The Pakistani Taliban, on the other hand, seek to overthrow the government of Pakistan.

Pakistan Army operations always have been targeted against threats to the stability of Pakistan and not against elements based in Pakistan that threaten the stability of the present regime in Afghanistan. Pakistan's strategic interests in confronting India require access to a friendly Afghanistan, which is not now the case.

The Karzai government is friendlier to India than to Pakistan. Thus, Pakistani intelligence has not and most likely will never cut its connections and support to the Pashtuns in Afghanistan, especially if they return to power in Kabul.

Long after US forces depart, Pakistan must survive in a hostile environment. US support has flowed and ebbed in the recent past, but has never been enough to enable Pakistan to defeat India in conventional warfare. China has been the only ally of Pakistan that has provided the strategic advantage that deters India, in the Pakistani view: nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems.

The intelligence dispute is a proxy for Pakistan's fundamental distrust of the US as an ally, compared to China. As the time for the withdrawal of US forces in Afghanistan draws nearer, strain in relations will increase.

Will x-post in Af-pak.

[devesh]

India has hisotrical connections to Arabia but not to Turkey. It was the Turkish tribal invasion of Inda that led to Islamization in India. Very zimble. India does not have leverages with Turkey.

this explains why GF and Atlanticist imperialists are hoping for Turkey to become Islamist. Gf practically salivates at the thought of Turkey turning Islamist and assuming its 'rightful' position. an Islamist Turkey can hit 2 birds with one stone, for the West. it can take out Russia by exporting Islamism to growing Muslim populations in Southern Russia and Caucasus and at the same time be free of Indian influence. an Islamic chieftain with the kind of geography that insulates it from more moderating influence and allows it to shaft a major power of Asia.

i think Turkey becoming Islamist is what West wants. they are comfortable with the idea and feel confident that they can deal with the consequences or think they won't have much negative consequences. They will nudge and wink until Turkey becomes what they want it to become. and then ride in as the savior when Turkey eventually turns belligerent. fits right in with their strategy.

[Johann]

The EU (led by Germany), Russia and Turkey have increasingly mutually dependent economies with ever deeper levels of strategic integration.

It is a revolving trade built around capital, consumer markets, technology, cheap labour and energy reserves.

Each leg of this triangle has areas in the wider Muslim world that are closely tied to them economically; North Africa in the case of the EU, the Levant and Caucasus in the case of Turkey. and Central Asia & Caucasus in the case of Russia.

In fact, it is this triangular economic complex of driver economies that China now wants to link up with by building high speed rail across Eurasia; http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/europe-asi ... d=10048404

As I said, the new silk road is the emerging reality that China, Russia, Turkey and Germany, Syria, etc are all betting on.

Pragmatic Muslim states who dont make life hard for at least foreign non-Muslims will make a *lot* of money from it, and the radical ones, not so much.