Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

[RajeshA]

So Mr. RajeshA, if it doesn't fit, you must quit.

I think, I'd rather work on the pegs and the holes, than see India go up in mushroom clouds!

[Prem]

Rajesh ji,
More the Islamists and islamist ideas grow in or neighborhood ,easier it will be to discredit them. The growth of both these factors in near future /neighborhood is good for our long term interests. As much we look throgh the prism of histoy , We should also pay attention to near future.Fossilized Islam/islamists, as far as we know, have nothing to contribute in 21st century. Its only matter of few decades before they become completely irrelevant to current modern age. Our priority should be to keep the borders secured and in case of eventuality, reserve, accumulate and nurture political will and capabilty to exetrminate any physical threat . Leave them to their schemes till we separate 2.5 of 3.5 from them.

[Pratyush]

Rajesh ji,
More the Islamists and islamist ideas grow in or neighborhood ,easier it will be to discredit them. The growth of both these factors in near future /neighborhood is good for our long term interests. As much we look throgh the prism of histoy , We should also pay attention to near future.Fossilized Islam/islamists, as far as we know, have nothing to contribute in 21st century. Its only matter of few decades before they become completely irrelevant to current modern age. Our priority should be to keep the borders secured and in case of eventuality, reserve, accumulate and nurture political will and capabilty to exetrminate any physical threat . Leave them to their schemes till we separate 2.5 of 3.5 from them.

Prem,

The underlining assumption in your post is that civilization and progress is a linear process. That once a certain level of civilization is reached it will not falter and collapse. This belief is flawed, civilisation can and does collapse even after it has reached a certain level. Loosing all its learning and wisdom. The Islamist narrative is dangerous precisely because it seeks to turn back the clock to the 7th century and undo the gains made by the human kind in the past. It has simplistic answers to the problems being faced by man. This message is quite seductive to a large number of week minds who are incapable of finding the answers to their own problems or seek to make themselves better. (This is true for all man made religions). A large number of these men acting in concert can and will pull down and destroy civilisation as we know it. This was done by Christians in Europe and they brought about the dark ages. You have seen what the Taliban did to Afghanistan. Today that idealogy has creep ed in and finds sustenance in the badlands of Pakistan (State connivance or not is irrelevant). This needs to be fought and destroyed through any means necessary. The only way that is likely to work may be Dand or Bedh, Sam or Dam will be seen as a weakness of the other side.

We cannot allow this ideology and belief system to be strengthened because it has the potential to disrupt the progress of man and the human religion.

[Pranav]

Prem,

The underlining assumption in your post is that civilization and progress is a linear process. That once a certain level of civilization is reached it will not falter and collapse. This belief is flawed, civilisation can and does collapse even after it has reached a certain level. Loosing all its learning and wisdom. The Islamist narrative is dangerous precisely because it seeks to turn back the clock to the 7th century and undo the gains made by the human kind in the past.

You are right and Prem is also right.

While Islamism goes towards its natural and inevitable demise, we absolutely need an iron fist to deter and to smash any violent tendencies. India's historical failing over the past 2000 years was to not give the science of violence its proper place. However, if one goes back further, to the time of Chanakya, we see that Indians did have a balanced perspective.

[Arjun]

More the Islamists and islamist ideas grow in or neighborhood ,easier it will be to discredit them.

Agree with Prem. But rather than not do anything, there needs to be a way to force the pace of increasing Islamism. The best way to do this is by ensuring that Islamists define themselves even more strongly in anti-India and anti-Hindu terms than they already do....and that can be brought about by defining Indic values using liberal terms that Islamists are bound to find unacceptable.

The sequence of events should be as follows: (i) define Indic values and India increasingly using liberal terminology and human values that we know will act like a 'red flag' to the exclusivists (ii) Islamists in the neghborhood are forced to define themselves in anti-India and anti-Hindu terms based on increasing Indic identification with liberalism (iii) Islamist-dominated Pakistan / BD increasingly start to fail economically as their values push them further and further away from 21st century values (iv) rising internal contraditions and state failure leads to balkanization of the Islamist-ideology states (v) India can afford to then deal with failed Islamist states from a position of power and have the negotiation strength to dictate to the citizens of the failed states what options they have to be part of the India story.

[somnath]

the per capita income of Bihar is half that of Bangladesh! There are in absolute terms many times more poor than in Bangladesh! So basically I cannot imagine a similar program by India to uplift Bangladeshis as was the case with West Germany supporting East Germany after unification. India is not in a position to do so, nor I believe it is an expectation that India provides that kind of support!

RajeshA-ji, the total "vanilla" plan support to Bihar annually is ~ 4 billion dollars...On top, there are various special "Bihar specific support" programmes that vary each year, but should be another billion odd easily every year...Bihar's plan support is also restricted by the ability of the state to "absorb"..Bihar's population is half of BD's...And Bihar is an integral part of the union...Biharis have full freedom to work in any part of the country...Umm, well, lets say almost, there are certain uber nationalists who create problems from time to time dont see why the cost estimates for a reunification should be too different from Germany's!

Why should BD accede to India just for the sake of a parliamentary representation in a central legislature? Without full rights of Indian citizens, ie, freedom to travel and work anywhere and right over central resources, they are just a second class entity within the union..Given that even the political constituency is basent, this is an extremely poor incentive, if anything an insult!

AFAIK, it is a misconception to think economic prosperity will automatically result in social well being. I will give you few examples

Firstly how many of the so-called 'developed' nations are Dharmic in nature? All the economic development these societies have achieved is used to further their materialistic indulgences often at great cost to global environment and other 'undeveloped' societies. Even the most prosper citizenry of these societies are more attracted towards ritualistic yoga and castist brahminism than their respective spiritual observations. Take a look at the top 20 nations in the developed country list - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Developed_country

Secondly look at the islamic nations that are in the high HDIs. What values are they standing for? what alliances they are making? Yes, they are doing all these strategic moves in pragmatism; but is it Dharmic? Does any of these strategic alliances benefit Indian interests?

RamaY-ji, "there is enough for the world's needs, not for its greeds" is a good axiom...I have no problem with that...But thats not what is being discussed here..More importantly, India can claim to have evolved a viable alternate model only when we have given our people a quality of life (purely in HDI terms, striping off income if you like) comparable to the West...Till then, all this "dharmic" etc is hot air...All this dharmic was poor consolation for the IIT grad who pre-1990 had to migrate to get a job commensurate with his ability..Or the hundreds of millions of farmers who stuck to unviable farming because there was no alternative in manufacturing/industry...

We need to display achievements before we preach...For many years, we simply preached...For the alst 20 years, our achievements are coming forth..Maybe when our standard of living approaches half of the West, we will have the right to preach as well...

[Arjun]

One cannot change the Book, but one can ensure that the mind that reads the book is willing to ignore some things. Those who cannot ignore, are marginalized by the mainstream. Those who cannot be marginalized, are quarantined through administrative measures.

What is mainstream thought has not yet been completely identified and cast in stone in India unlike in the US where there has been a conscious effort towards making democracy, individual rights etc as inviolable mainstream 'American' ideas. Which is why India needs to put in effort towards making pluralism and anti-exclusivism far more of an upfront & in-your-face mainstream 'Indic' concept (both within India and in the neighborhood) than it currently is - BEFORE it attempts any move towards integrating large masses of external citizens into India.

[RajeshA]

the per capita income of Bihar is half that of Bangladesh! There are in absolute terms many times more poor than in Bangladesh! So basically I cannot imagine a similar program by India to uplift Bangladeshis as was the case with West Germany supporting East Germany after unification. India is not in a position to do so, nor I believe it is an expectation that India provides that kind of support!

RajeshA-ji, the total "vanilla" plan support to Bihar annually is ~ 4 billion dollars...On top, there are various special "Bihar specific support" programmes that vary each year, but should be another billion odd easily every year...Bihar's plan support is also restricted by the ability of the state to "absorb"..Bihar's population is half of BD's...And Bihar is an integral part of the union...Biharis have full freedom to work in any part of the country...Umm, well, lets say almost, there are certain uber nationalists who create problems from time to time dont see why the cost estimates for a reunification should be too different from Germany's!

Why should BD accede to India just for the sake of a parliamentary representation in a central legislature? Without full rights of Indian citizens, ie, freedom to travel and work anywhere and right over central resources, they are just a second class entity within the union..Given that even the political constituency is basent, this is an extremely poor incentive, if anything an insult!

Earlier you wrote:

an incremental 60-70 billiion dollars would be needed annually

If Bihar is given 5 billion dollars a year with half the population but also half the per capita income, perhaps the correct level of support would also be 5 billion dollars a year for Bangladesh with twice the population of Bihar but also twice the per capita income as Bihar! That would be ten times less the sum you proposed, unless I am misunderstanding you! 5 billion USD India could afford if we grow as expected.

As I mentioned the middle class, the skilled people, the business people would have full freedom of travel! In fact this alone would give the Bangladeshis an incentive to study, and get a degree, so that they can travel across the border into India!

The unskilled labor too would be allowed in into India but under much stricter conditions and there would be a quota! This is no insult. It is a fact of life, that if the borders were to be thrown open, India would inundated with Bangladeshis and we could collapse in chaos!

The Bangladeshis would be getting the same amount of freedom as any other Indian. Indian unskilled labor too would not be allowed to go and work in Bangladesh without any controls! So where is the difference?

As I mentioned earlier there is much more on the table for Bangladesh:

On the table is not just

• participation in the Indian political stability and democracy, but also
• a decisive voice in the water management of the rivers in the region, as well as
• a major effort and financial commitment to ensure that the sea does not swallow half of Bangladesh, and
• freedom of travel, right of residence, purchase of property, right to education for Bangladeshis in any part of India (which does not translate into right to vote in the area), a level of freedom and opportunity undreamed of, and
• access to a vast market and investment capital giving a big boost to their economy, and last but not least
• being part of an emerging superpower and a success story!
• For the Bangladeshi nationalists and defense constituency they get to influence and wield one of the biggest military machines in the Indian Ocean Region, while
• the Islamists in Bangladesh feel the ranks of the Muslims of their country more than doubled, and by becoming the biggest Muslim country in the world, they get to have a decisive voice in the Islamic affairs and politics of the world, whereas today, Bangladeshis matter little in Muslim affairs!
• And we throw in 5 billion USD in annual support from Center!

I don't think that with all that on the table, it would constitute "an insult" to the Bangladeshis, as you seem to misrepresent it!

The ecological support that Bangladesh would be getting from India alone, which could save much of their country, would be help of huge proportions. Some projections say that up to 17% of Bangladeshi territory would be under water by 2050 and much of the rest would be very prone to flooding!

[RajeshA]

One cannot change the Book, but one can ensure that the mind that reads the book is willing to ignore some things. Those who cannot ignore, are marginalized by the mainstream. Those who cannot be marginalized, are quarantined through administrative measures.

What is mainstream thought has not yet been completely identified and cast in stone in India unlike in the US where there has been a conscious effort towards making democracy, individual rights etc as inviolable mainstream 'American' ideas. Which is why India needs to put in effort towards making pluralism and anti-exclusivism far more of an upfront & in-your-face mainstream 'Indic' concept (both within India and in the neighborhood) than it currently is - BEFORE it attempts any move towards integrating large masses of external citizens into India.

In any agreement that would be signed between India and Bangladesh w.r.t. merger one can expect that both sides would agree to abstract concepts such as pluralism etc. There would also be safeguards w.r.t. to treatment of minorities and probably some administrative machinery to look after their concerns. However such a commitment would be given by Bangladesh Govt. and not by Islam itself!

If Indics declare today pluralism to be the central tenet of India, would it mean that the Indian Muslims too would accept the notion at the dogma level?! They may pay lip service to it, or they may interpret it totally different to how the Indics would see it. So if a big minority in India does not accede to that principle, can we as Indians consider it a principle with universal applicability in India itself?

We can still declare the principle and hope that with years, the Indian Muslims would start seeing the world in a similar way as the Indics!

[somnath]

If Bihar is given 5 billion dollars a year with half the population but also half the per capita income, perhaps the correct level of support would also be 5 billion dollars a year for Bangladesh with twice the population of Bihar but also twice the per capita income as Bihar! That would be ten times less the sum you proposed, unless I am misunderstanding you! 5 billion USD India could afford if we grow as expected.

You are completely misunderstanding the point..the reason I gave the numbers for Bihar is because you quoted its "backwardness" compared to BD...the point is that Bihar is alredy a part fo the Union, and Indian development and investment matrices take into account the potential (or the alck of it) of Bihar...Despite that, look at the plan support to Bihar that needs to be given every year, mind you thats not the "only" money that is invested in Bihar..Dont remember the data offhand, but Bihar would have an investment-to-GDP ratio of >30%, ~10% more than BD's...So even catching up to Bihar's levels of investment ratios would require large amounts of money...

That 60-70 billion is a ballpark one-dimensional number (of investment ratios)...There would be many more heads of expenditure required - amalgamating various administrative arms of the govt, standardising norms and processes - that itself will cost billions, if one only goes by the German example...

Just as something to mull over - "integration costs" in a typical acquisition is ~20% of the cost of the acquisition...If we consider differential GDP (or per capita income) as the cost of BD acquisition, we would need to generate incremental income of ~200 billion dollars every year...That means, at India's ICOR, an investment of ~800 billion dollars every year...Now these numbers are not exatc - I have ignored the impact of inflation (and xchange rates - they would work to bring odwn that number), but you get teh idea..

As I mentioned the middle class, the skilled people, the business people would have full freedom of travel! In fact this alone would give the Bangladeshis an incentive to study, and get a degree, so that they can travel across the border into India!

The unskilled labor too would be allowed in into India but under much stricter conditions and there would be a quota! This is no insult. It is a fact of life, that if the borders were to be thrown open, India would inundated with Bangladeshis and we could collapse in chaos!

So you think a second class citizenship of a unified country will be good enough for BD to salivate over a poltiical merger? You may want to examine the "privileged partnership" offer that France (and a few islamophobes) are offering Turkey in lieu of EU membership - it offers far more than what you are proposing for BD...And Turkey doesnt want to even give it a first look...
A province whose citizens dont even have the freedom of movement will be given "control" over defence and water policy?

And finally, India will never be accepted as part of the "islamic ummah", regardless of the number of muslims it has...If numbers were the question, even today we are the 2nd or 3rd largest "muslim" country...Given our vision of our way of life, we will never be part of the "ummah"...

[Arjun]

If Indics declare today pluralism to be the central tenet of India, would it mean that the Indian Muslims too would accept the notion at the dogma level?! They may pay lip service to it, or they may interpret it totally different to how the Indics would see it. So if a big minority in India does not accede to that principle, can we as Indians consider it a principle with universal applicability in India itself?

The central idea is that India's soft power is underutilized in achieving her geopolitical ambitions. There is a significant amount of research available on how it was finally American 'soft power' that led to the breakup of her prime adversary - the Soviet Union.

Soft Power is defined as the sum total of the values and culture that a nation / civilization represents. India has been successful in some degree in utilizing the 'culture' part (as represented by Bollywood, Mahatma Gandhi, yoga) in projecting a certain image that has also been useful in gaining economic stature and to some extent has contributed to creating dissonance and internal contradictions in adversaries like Pakistan. However the real power from this will be realized by ramping up Indic soft power big-time to include 'values' that are identified with India as a nation - & the objective would be for a success as big as a breakup of the Soviet Union was for the US - ie a breakup of Pakistan and defeat of Islamism in the subcontinent (including within India), & getting a legup on China in global sweepstakes.

I don't think a 'declaration' that pluralism be the central tenet of India would be very practical...what needs to happen is that there needs to be a lot more talk of 'Indic civilization', 'Indic ethos' and 'idea of India' in the media, in primary education and in governmental speeches - the objective would be to create and spread the foundation for Indian soft power to rival concepts such as 'Western civilization' and 'the idea of America' and similar concepts that are certain to come up from the Chinese side. As part of the talk on 'Indic ethos' certainly pluralism will be one of the central concepts to be pushed.

It is easy to see how pushing pluralism as a concept can create deep dissonance and contradictions in Islamic societies. Liberal sections of society cannot afford to reject the concept - but anyone who follows Islam to the letter would have to reject it. Therefore by having the media increasingly project pluralism as a universal human value - we will see increasing fissures in societies that are unable to cope. On the other hand, if BD society for example truly accepts the concept - I would see as a society that is competitive and worthy of merging with India. End result is a 'win-win' from India's perspective.

The concept would be useful within India as well to distinguish the Islamist element within the Muslim community from the rest. A practical test for belief in exclusivity of faith could be if an individual believed Gods other than his / her own to be FALSE gods.

As regards applicability in India - would you say that individual liberty is not a universal American sentiment simply because some American Muslims want to implement Sharia out there? When an idea is derived from the core belief of the civilization, there is absolutely no reason to change it just because a small section of society has chosen to follow a contrary belief originating from outside of the civilization.

[brihaspati]

RajeshA ji,
I am getting confused now! Did you say that the BD-India "reintegration" as you have outlined would have similar orders of "costs" as the German reunification? dont' know if any other "integrationists" has even used the comparison! If you have done so, then you now belong to the class of "uber nationalists" who create "problems" from time to time! What type of "problems"? For whom? like pointing out that only certain authors are chosen [who themselves distance themselves from conclusions attributed to them] and pushed to buttress political agenda and ignore or suppress [or perhaps no knowledge at all ] alternative or counter arguments and "empirical" work! You did not do so!

"Uber pseudo secularists" never give up - especially when they are exposed in their agenda of pushing for their ideological masters' voices. They get especially annoyed when their perfidy is exposed. On the one hand, extreme gushing in painting say overlap of BD with India, culture/language/festivities galore! These three items are so immensely powerful that religious affiliation should have no effect on bilateral relations - such religious affiliations are on the wane, yadda yadda! (of course an almost total non-aquaintance with the reality of BD society and politics can provide such euphoria). But when it comes to accepting BD into India, absolute horror - no way that can be done, because then and only then - the "Islamism" factor becomes overwhelming! forget that there was a merry dance about how Rabindrasangeet was "sung" and how "poela Baisakh" was celebrated and how that indicated "overlap" as stronger than "religious divide"!

So the real issue - which is about innate hatred of Muslims - that drives all those (especially those that switched to licking Nehruvian-boots post Partition, from Bengal) uber pseudo-secularists - comes out on questions of "mergers".

As I pointed out earlier, there are those who oppose mergers because they are honest about their distrust of "Islamism", both the ideology as well as "Muslims". But the uber pseudo secularists from "canis pseudo saecularis" species, are perfidious in that they pretend admiration and overlap for BD cultures with India, and cite it as something that is stronger than Islamism in determining relations with/attitudes towards India - but have no compunction in switching around to using that "Islamism" itself as stronger than all gushed-for cultural/linguistic/festivities overlap with India, when it comes to accepting BD within India.

The excuse will perhaps be given that BD "doesn't want it", but that is not the question here. The question is about attitudes from India and Indians about such mergers.

[brihaspati]

Just in passing, there are also empirical work that see "positive" correlation and directional causality between "conflict" and "trade". By the logic pushed for before, increasing "conflict" with "Pak" and "BD" should then support for increasing "trade"! Things are much more complicated in the real world. Let us see whether there is some basic honesty in trying to finding out those counter-thoughts!

[RajeshA]

Brihaspati garu,

No, somnath ji suggested that, the costs of India-BD merger would be of an order of magnitude as that of German unification!

I am saying no such thing!

I am saying that India would not be pumping any more money into Bangladesh per capita than what India allots to any other Indian state with a similar per capita income!

[somnath]

No, somnath ji suggested that, the costs of India-BD merger would be of an order of magnitude as that of German unification!

Well, I didnt quite say that..Simply because I dont know...No one's done any analysis of that...But the only reference point we have the is the German reunification...

The only other reference point to your thought is the EU (rather Franch) proposal to Turkey for a "privileged partnership" -from a political angle purely...

Issue with uber nationalists with no idea of what they are talking about is a proclivity to not even be clear on their ideological praxis...Anyhow, I think the discussion is a bit moot without some more on the ground enunciation of consituencies, costs, political reactions etc...

[RajeshA]

As I mentioned the middle class, the skilled people, the business people would have full freedom of travel! In fact this alone would give the Bangladeshis an incentive to study, and get a degree, so that they can travel across the border into India!

The unskilled labor too would be allowed in into India but under much stricter conditions and there would be a quota! This is no insult. It is a fact of life, that if the borders were to be thrown open, India would inundated with Bangladeshis and we could collapse in chaos!

So you think a second class citizenship of a unified country will be good enough for BD to salivate over a poltiical merger? You may want to examine the "privileged partnership" offer that France (and a few islamophobes) are offering Turkey in lieu of EU membership - it offers far more than what you are proposing for BD...And Turkey doesnt want to even give it a first look...
A province whose citizens dont even have the freedom of movement will be given "control" over defence and water policy?

And finally, India will never be accepted as part of the "islamic ummah", regardless of the number of muslims it has...If numbers were the question, even today we are the 2nd or 3rd largest "muslim" country...Given our vision of our way of life, we will never be part of the "ummah"...

The "privileged partnership" offered by Germany and France to Turkey was rejected precisely because there was no provision of giving Turkey political integration into EU! So basically you are confirming only my point that countries wish a political integration at an equal level, and not just economic integration!

Now I would like to ask you to please tell me, how EU was offering Turkey more than what I proposed for Bangladesh!

Even for countries who joined EU in 2004, i.e. Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, and the Baltic states the free movement of workers were allowed into countries like Germany and Austria after the maximum period of 7 years, i.e. in 2011! There was a transition period!

Free movement of (unskilled) workers from Bangladesh into India too would require a period of transition. It could be 20 years or 30 years or more. I don't know! Except for a transition period for the free movement of uneducated Bangladeshi workers into India, India would be offering a full merger and equal treatment of Bangladeshis on par with any other Indian citizen. Now just because a full merger needs time, it doesn't mean it offers others some "second class citizenship" or some "insulting" relationship! This is emotive instigative terminology without any substance to back it!

Summarizing: Bangladeshis are being offered full Indian citizenship up front, with some aspects of merger requiring transition period!

As far as unification costs go, there would be some costs for adjusting the administrative machinery like say the electoral machinery, common structures such as defense forces, common currency, bank norms, accounting standards, etc. Other than that India would not be pumping any more money into Bangladesh per capita than what India allots to any other Indian state with a similar per capita income!

Such costs would have to be calculated observing the specific case of Indo-BD merger. When such costs would be calculated, we would know. All other estimations based on company mergers or German unification are not really applicable and any numbers are pretty much drawn from one's musharraf!

[RajeshA]

Issue with uber nationalists with no idea of what they are talking about is a proclivity to not even be clear on their ideological praxis...Anyhow, I think the discussion is a bit moot without some more on the ground enunciation of consituencies, costs, political reactions etc...

Nationalists have national interests uppermost on their minds. Their nation is their ideology. It is not necessary that they all would have the same ideas on strategy, and as such there will always be discussions!

[somnath]

The "privileged partnership" offered by Germany and France to Turkey was rejected precisely because there was no provision of giving Turkey political integration into EU! So basically you are confirming only my point that countries wish a political integration at an equal level, and not just economic integration

EU is not (primaroily) a political structure, it is (primarily) an econmic structure..Political sovereignties are not surrendered wholesale to Brussels..The reason why Turkey didnt want to give a first look to that French proposal was simple - they didnt want a realationship different from other (christian) European countries, ie, a second class status..they would much rather remain where they are - so its full membership or nothing!

If people are not willing to join common market/ccy structures on second-class grounds, no reason why they should do so for a political reunification...

there are lots of sources in www on the privileged partnership proposal to Turkey if you are interested...

Net net, I still dont see a compelling rationale for BD to surrender its sovereigntis to India, something it has built its identity upon, for a bunch of really vague things like "common defence" (btw, defence against whom?)...And given that there is no constituency, no demand, no articulation, and not even a concrete set of cost-benefit analysis and policy structures required, its a bit of blue sky thinking without any blue in the background!

In any case, I tink I absence of anything concrete, the discussion is at a dead end...

[brihaspati]

Issue with uber nationalists with no idea of what they are talking about is a proclivity to not even be clear on their ideological praxis...Anyhow, I think the discussion is a bit moot without some more on the ground enunciation of consituencies, costs, political reactions etc...

Nationalists have national interests uppermost on their minds. Their nation is their ideology. It is not necessary that they all would have the same ideas on strategy, and as such there will always be discussions!

RajeshA ji,
no, no, now everyone becomes "uber nationalist" - since those who have no idea about what they are talking about also show an inclination not to be clear about their ideological praxis - are "uber nationalists".

It stems from the failure to understand the difference between "elasticity" and "causality". The first shows mere association in movement, whereas the second shows who causes the other one to move. Polachek understands what he is showing, and explicitly distances himself from his "empirical work" being used to justify political arguments that trade reduces "conflict". But people do not really know what Polachek is talking about and hence what they themselves are talking about, try to use his work which shows "elasticity" to claim "causality".

So by that confusion - if one claims that cultural/linguistic/festivity overlap with BD was so strong that it dominates Islamism in bilateral relations with India, and even the residual "Islamism" was on the wane, but then contradicts himself by claiming that no future merger is feasible because of that very same "Islamism" which will dominate then existing culture/language/festival overlap - shows inclination not to be clear about their ideological praxis. Since for this approach "elasticity"=="causality", this does mean that such contradictions represent "uber nationalists".

I support your efforts, even if I disagree with some of your tactical proposals, primarily because I feel a lot of data points may emerge from your arguments about the sub-continental dynamic. I am willing to learn, unlike "uber confused". Would you like to go into some analysis of the costs as they stand of the existence of Pak and BD to India? If you can show net monetary profit a lot of hedgers of financial risks can be won over! Of course those who would have ideological commitments within the hedgers will still be reluctant and find more excuses!

[Prem]

The rational behind BD and PD's existance is (Poakdesh) religion. No doubt that similar forces exist in India though keeping low profile for the time being. To my simple mind, islamists have been depived of feeding grounds even since Marathas and Sikhs put "Nakel " on them in india .European imperialism excelled in comparison to Arab imperialism. First World War practically finished the job at global level what was started by M&S in Matrdesh. One factor almost everyone (Psers and Tsers) agree is that both Islamists and their dogma are immutable but world is changing fast. There have been crazy changes in human life since 80/90s and the pace is gonna accelrate in this century of technology, instant information and knowledge.
Indians are best suitable to adapt this changing.complex enviorenment. We should fully exploit the opeprtunity and onlee then set the agenda for near abroad to either mould or fold the naughty neighborhood. The present source of strength, Mineral wealth and the rnatural resources under islamist areas are finite and will be depleted soon to start their irrelevance to Humanity at large. IMHO,We must wait and watch how the change folds in next 20-30 years and onlee then make the move .Any one then want to join us and come back home, most welcome but leave the dogma at door . Instincts tell me , we will change the life on Prithvi ( In epic sense) for ever. We can have it all on our terms soon if know and keep our strengths in mind.

[RajeshA]

Net net, I still dont see a compelling rationale for BD to surrender its sovereigntis to India, something it has built its identity upon, for a bunch of really vague things like "common defence" (btw, defence against whom?)...And given that there is no constituency, no demand, no articulation, and not even a concrete set of cost-benefit analysis and policy structures required, its a bit of blue sky thinking without any blue in the background!

In any case, I tink I absence of anything concrete, the discussion is at a dead end...

As far as I know, the current power dispensation in India has failed to neutralize the nuclear threat from Pakistan for Indian citizens, failed to stop terrorism against Indian citizens and failed to neutralize Chinese advances in contracting India's strategic space, not to speak of the "uber-nationalist" aims of regaining Indian lands lost to Pakistan and Bangladesh. So the current political orientation of India is simply insufficient to protect Indian interests. These imperatives so to speak move me to think of strategies to correct the situation in which the "pseudo-secularists" have landed us!

We need a certain consensus on a framework which can work between India and Bangladesh, in order to make a serious proposal to the powers that be for consideration, and those powers that be include the peoples of India and Bangladesh!

If you look at history, identities have been in constant change and transformation! Nothing says, the Bangladeshis cannot extend their identity with Indian identity as well, which they once were part of!

In case, you don't see these imperatives and consider the discussion unproductive, you're of course free take a break from it!

Once I wrote some of the benefits of political consolidation of our region (ex-Pak). They were:

1. We develop a better defensive position versus China – by becoming bigger, by plugging the leaks, by putting on an extra ‘Muslim armor’, by partly vaccinating ourselves against the troublesome “-isms”.
2. It provides for a solution to illegal immigration from Bangladesh into India.
3. It would finish off anti-Indianism as a phenomenon, as all those neighbors who suffer from it would be merged into India.
4. By becoming the “largest Muslim country”, in fact the “largest country in the world”, it gives us many new avenues for power politics in the world.
5. By redefining our borders, we escape the diplomatic and political straitjacket we have been saddled with by Mr. Radcliffe, and we finally lose our fear that others may exploit the fissures in our nation-state.
6. Consolidation of the Indian Subcontinent would trigger a new wave of self-reflection in both Indics and Subcontinental Muslims and it would drive all of us to explore our history and our common civilization. We will be defining ourselves through our own civilizational eyes.

The main benefit however would be viz-a-viz Pakistan and its unraveling!

[RajeshA]

I support your efforts, even if I disagree with some of your tactical proposals, primarily because I feel a lot of data points may emerge from your arguments about the sub-continental dynamic. I am willing to learn, unlike "uber confused". Would you like to go into some analysis of the costs as they stand of the existence of Pak and BD to India? If you can show net monetary profit a lot of hedgers of financial risks can be won over! Of course those who would have ideological commitments within the hedgers will still be reluctant and find more excuses!

brihaspati garu,

Your support means a lot to me as a BRFite! I am grateful for it!

I would be very pleased to look into the costs of this merger, however I must say, economics is not my strong suit!

More later!

[svinayak]

As far as I know, the current power dispensation in India has failed to neutralize the nuclear threat from Pakistan for Indian citizens, failed to stop terrorism against Indian citizens and failed to neutralize Chinese advances in contracting India's strategic space, not to speak of the "uber-nationalist" aims of regaining Indian lands lost to Pakistan and Bangladesh. So the current political orientation of India is simply insufficient to protect Indian interests. These imperatives so to speak move me to think of strategies to correct the situation in which the "pseudo-secularists" have landed us!

I like this
Please repeat this again and again

[RamaY]

Now I understand Al-BRaman's pain, calling BRF an hindutva forum. Nationalism is equated to hindutva; the (sic) secular mindset's penchant to separate non-existent church from Bharat.

RajeshA ji - please continue the thought process. We need to start somewhere in this thought experiment.

[Prem]

Its a cry for political reform. While leaving India Brit imposed Chrislam on indians via Congress and the treachery continue . We still dont know which specific non Indian power controls PSers/ Johlawala/ Congress and rest of the Bikau sundries setting up social-economic-political agenda.
RamaYa,
When Hazrat Hazare removes the picture of Bharat Mata to prove his secular credential then Aam Son of Soil has nothing more left to loose. Lets hope we reach break in point soon and these RNIs drown on pool of pure desi spit.

[brihaspati]

Prem ji,
it also helps us to identify the sections from which the greatest resistance will come. Moreover we need to learn that these same sections will switch sides as and when they see that the opposite position is winning. These are basically boot-lickers of whoever is in power and who has has also proved their ruthlessness in getting rid of opponents. But they will remain betrayers of the commons. Whatever political reincarnation they pretend.

[RajeshA]

X-Posting from West Asia News and Discussions Thread

RajeshA garu,

That is what happens when a nation puts economic progress ahead of national interests. What can India do? It will be emotionally and politically blackmailed by millions of gelf migrants and their relatives back home. This is IC-814 redux million times.

I think you are over estimating BD in this equation. Pakistan's value is only due to its clown jewels and mercenary army. Can BD do that, and does India want BD to become that?

What GCC wants now is a mercenary army. India must never allow such nonsense wherever possible; it is watching paki perfidy helplessly as it has no influence over Pakis.

Does restraint only applies to Muslim or Crhistian or Jewish labels? Our objective must be to make war an acceptable strategy even for Hindus; not take some superficial islamic identity to use war as instrument of danda-neeti.

Forgive me for saying this; while Somnath is trying to use Economy as a tool; you are trying to use Islamic lobby as the tool to extend Indian interests. It is like manmohan thinking that he needs to wear a Bush mask or a Putin mask to be prime ministerial in leading his national interests.

That is the approach of timid; not worth a strategy for a society of Indicness.

RamaY garu,

It is not a question of timid. It is a question of effectiveness!

India would grow in multiple iterations to its rightful radiance - each iteration uses the situation prevalent, devises the appropriate strategy and grows to the next level, a level where the environment is more conducive to further growth, use a different strategy then and grow further.

At every point in time, we have to see what is the right strategy! And this time requires that the lamb (or the elephant) wears a wolf's clothes! The wolf's clothes are important to join the wolf pack and take down the other wolves one by one from within the pack!

If we go as the elephant, we will be taken down by the wolves!

America has stationed its 5th fleet in Bahrain! It too provides security to the Arabs! It is not simply there as a mercenary force but rather as their protectors! Gulf is under American protection! Same way India too can enter into a security alliance with them! We don't have to be mercenaries! Indian Army is not like that!

A partnership with Bangladesh offers India legions of Muslim soldiers! Why does our current Muslims not allow that? Well because nobody accepts that Indian Muslims constitute a majority Muslim ethnicity. Amongst all Indian ethnicities, Muslims are a minority within those ethnicities, except may be amongst Kashmiris, but they don't count as Indian patriots for the time. Bangladeshis are however a Muslim majority ethnicity. Nobody can accuse them of following non-Muslim diktat, provided they play their role forcefully on the international stage as Indian citizens. So yes, I'm absolutely certain that if we bring Bangladeshis under the Indian umbrella, we get the licence to kick the ass of any Muslim country which acts against Indian national interests, including Pakistan!

But as it is, in this iteration it is absolutely important to neutralize Pakistan, and the developments in West Asia is giving it another lifeline and India is sitting on the side incapable of doing any thing about it!

As I see it, the priority is to neutralize what is going to come at us, and if I may say so, our Indicness is not going to get the job done, especially as this platform still happens to be in baby shoes, at least at the level of political power in India!

[Atri]

One of my own Jaataka tale from an old article on blog..

if NATO forces are unsuccessful in defeating taliban in Pakistan-Afghanistan region (which most probably they will, since they are yet to clearly identify their enemy), even if they succeed in fracturing and dividing Pakistan, the devastation caused by them will be a catalyst for the formation of new Islamic state which will be modelled upon the Caliphate. Taliban is a movement, an ideology which cannot be defeated by weapons alone. It has to be tackled by ideas, a crucial point which is missing in the apparent War On Terror by the West. Without participation of India, West cannot win in south Asia. And India cannot win unless Hinduism finds a way of successfully assimilating the Muslims in the subcontinent. This process will take at least 60-80 years, perhaps more but definitely not less.

It is like small bunch of honey-bees trying to sting a running elephant with thick skin. The elephant is India and the bees are militants and bee-hive is TSP. Know that when bee stings, she dies. India can sustain few more cuts before we grow large enough to eat the bee-hive and drink the honey. Meanwhile, bees are growing weak. Just that, we are being followed by a dragon (PRC) who is protective towards bee-hive but does not care about bees. The only interest of dragon is to keep bee-hive intact so that it can produce enough bees to trouble elephant, not more, not less. Hence, before elephant chooses to finish off the hive, it is practical enough for elephant to get stronger so that in case dragon thinks thrice before acting out in defence of hive. And even if dragon chooses to act, elephant is strong enough to resist any such attempts and repeal dragon out of its backyard. Furthermore, dragon is not problem-free. Its own backyard is full of problems and potential friends of the elephant. Elephant should be friends with distressed neighbours of the dragon.

Meanwhile, Eagle (USA) is wary of growing dragon and is pissed off by some stinger bees. Hence, the giant eagle is near bee-hive to fight the bees, but not bee-hive. Although the bee-eating rate of Eagle is ferocious, more bees it eats, more are still produced from Bee-hive. I guess, eagle will take time to learn that problem is the hive, and not bees. Eagle can't finish the hive without elephant but elephant demands or will demand larger share, rather complete share, since, there is no place for Eagle there.

Then there are Fox and Bear (Iran and Russia) waiting anxiously and are friendly towards elephant, but not towards Eagle.

The point is, there are so many other forces acting in this complex web of vested interests. Elephant is just one node of that complex web. The vector sum of all these forces will determine the coming world order. India has the right direction, but needs to increase its magnitude tremendously, so that it influences the resulting vector sum in its favour. TSP is a pawn. Its not just about capturing pawn, its about capturing it in such way that establishes complete dominance of India in subcontinent and Indian ocean.

I only hope that India has better leadership in next 10 years, unlike Manmohan Singh. I guess, this will be the last chance India will get to rise to the position of her former glory. If we mess these 10 years, we will be doomed to suffer for next few centuries.

[svinayak]

TSP is a pawn. Its not just about capturing pawn, its about capturing it in such way that establishes complete dominance of India in subcontinent and Indian ocean.

This is very good perception. With low cost for the last 50 years they have kept a large population down and under the radar

[RamaY]

^

RajeshAji's strategy confuses me especially when viewed thru (something like) Atri mahasaya's jataka tale...

Are we trying to get a couple of bee-wings attached to the elephant so that it can fly on to beehive (for that matter onto dragon) and crush it.

Or We are trying to create our own version of beehive so that all elephantic-bees fly in the shape of elephant?

[Atri]

^

RajeshAji's strategy confuses me especially when viewed thru (something like) Atri mahasaya's jataka tale...

Are we trying to get a couple of bee-wings attached to the elephant so that it can fly on to beehive (for that matter onto dragon) and crush it.

Or We are trying to create our own version of beehive so that all elephantic-bees fly in the shape of elephant?

I love the end-game which is defined by RajeshA garu.. I am simply wary of flirting with swinging delivery on bouncing wicket of Perth while playing against west indian team of late 1970's which Rajesh garu suggests in order to realize that end game. We need SRT, Dravid et al at their top form, in order to sustain and win. RD at his best is analogous to flourishing Dharma in regions to south of Vindhyas and coastlines (of India) under dharmik influence.. SRT at his best same as Magadha under dharmik influence as well (along with rest of India). Nothing can stop him then.. If Magadha gets going, history will repeat. then one can play however close as one wants. But one cannot wait for Magadha to get going (what if, it does not rise in time).

The only animal who is evolutionarily best suited for destroying beehive is bear.. but will bear do it again, after been chased away by eagle... may be, fox will trick bear into destroying beehive.. The funny coincidence is, in russian, medvedev literally means bear as well..

[Prem]

India has the right direction, but needs to increase its magnitude tremendously, so that it influences the resulting vector sum in its favour. TSP is a pawn. Its not just about capturing pawn, its about capturing it in such way that establishes complete dominance of India in subcontinent and Indian ocean.
I only hope that India has better leadership in next 10 years, unlike Manmohan Singh. I guess, this will be the last chance India will get to rise to the position of her former glory. If we mess these 10 years, we will be doomed to suffer for next few centuries.

Alhamduillha,
This is the gist of whole argument . Elephant must be strong enough to fight , vees ,dogs,cats,crows,foxes, jackals other sundry parasites,scavangres etc wating on the side line . 10-20 year wait is nothing in view of last millinium battle/s. Indoos go to war onlee when all the loose ends are tied up and all the aces are in kaccha. We cant afford stalemate anymore ,initiate the battle for 400% victory so no poisonous residue left for future sake. It will all start with political will and reform.

[brihaspati]

You dont mean bees - they at least produce honey to be looted. That is what is sought to be made of Indians by the "monetary profits onlee" school. Work away hard ye drones - then we parasites will come and smoke you away and take the honey - but of course preserve a part of your populations os that you can make honey for us again.

I think you mean hornets/wasps (yellowjackets/Vespa)!

[RajeshA]

The funny coincidence is, in russian, medvedev literally means bear as well..

Med means honey!
Ved means to know!
'ev prefix - the one!
Medvedev - the one who knows honey - bear!

[Atri]

devaguru,
yes in essence I meant wasps.. but, wasps do not build hive.. wasps are expendible, the hive which acts as wasp-factory is not (for eagle and dragon).. I think the better analogy is swarm of locusts.. But then the bear analogy of russia fits too, if we use beehive metaphor..

rajesh garu, is this vibhakti provided by you russian or sanskrit? med is honey, ved is to know, eva is only.. the only (one) who knows honey. ****. is it same in russian?

[Prem]

Kaffir loags here are hidding the truth and dont understand that Poaks are naat honey bees but flies surviving by eating, cleaning up their favourite food. TSP is rightfully called the Toilet of South Asia, a natural habitat for SE flies.

[brihaspati]

RajeshA ji,
seriously, many of us will not agree to the tactical "necessity" of pretending weakness/host to a certain faith in order to get the followers on and motivate them on some dreams of a glorious Mughalistan-2 - in order to finish off the Paki regime.

The problem, is that sometime the interim steps in a sequence of tactical steps either sets in motion independently spawned hostile processes - like the gift by MKG of the Khilafat movement - or the compromises and networks that build up in making this tactical compromising step, becomes an unshaleable chain that binds and restricts all future steps.

But what you can definitely help us do at this initial stage is to produce some kind of a costs analysis for the very existence of Pak and BD. I think here would be a common point between the nay-sayers to your tactical steps and yea-sayers.

[brihaspati]

Well as for "bees" - do you know that the best method of controlling bees would be biological control - virus or predatory insects that feed on "bees". Set similar bee species on to these bees. But I dont think we need to become bees ourselve sin the process.

[RajeshA]

Atri ji,

I believe the hornets have also a small baby hornet nest growing within the body of the elephant itself. If the elephant's white blood cells attack the hornetlet nest as a foreign body, the dormant hornetlets would go crazy all at once and kill the elephant! Not only that all the hornet hives in the world would fall upon the elephant and let's not forget even an elephant is vulnerable in the eyes, in the mouth, in the trunk, in the ears, from the outside as well! Only the elephant's full immune system, consisting of all of its cells can perhaps neutralize the hornetlet hive, but this much of the immune system can never be realistically harnessed and activated! That I am afraid is a pipe dream! And at the same time face all the other hornet nests in the jungle! Not to speak of all the other wild animals which would jump at the opportunity and bring down the elephant for the next hundred years!

So I would really advise against activating the immune system just as yet! It is absolutely necessary to keep the hornetlet nest thinking that it is safe and the environment will not attack it! However the other hornets does not recognize the hornetlet hive as an equal. They see only the elephant and the hornetlet hive as simply a tool for them!

What the elephant needs to do is to using the hornetlet hive as example of thriving of hornets within the elephant to invite a full fledged hornet hive to align with it promising a prosperous future, not necessarily a lie! Using that hornet hive the elephant can start playing the hornet game! For the next strategic cycle the elephant would merge with the hornet hive, protect its heart and become an animagus! We will become the werewolf, the strongest amongst the wolves, or rather the werehornet, the strongest amongst the hornets! We will be the elephant but also the wolf (hornet) when the need arises!

All those hornet hives who rise up against us would be neutralized by our werehornet avatar! All those hornet hives who stand with us would accept our leadership and learn to respect not just our werehornet but also our elephant avatar!

Pakistan would be one hornet hive which would be smashed! There would be others!

Then we prepare ourselves for the next strategy cycle!

Those hornet hives who accept our leadership would be at our beckon and call and they would be let loose at other jungle animals - the dragons, the eagles, the bears, the foxes - any animal that stops us in our ascendancy! Those animals who accept our leadership would be spared, those who don't would be have a lot of hornet-bites! While we continue to grow! Remember the other animals can only have transactional alliances with the hornets! Only we can become the werehornets!

Then we prepare ourselves for the next strategy cycle!

That is left to your imagination!

Use hornets or wolves as it pleases you!

[RajeshA]

rajesh garu, is this vibhakti provided by you russian or sanskrit? med is honey, ved is to know, eva is only.. the only (one) who knows honey. ****. is it same in russian?

Well I read somewhere that ved means "to know" in Slavic! About "Med" i am pretty sure! It means honey! In East Europe and Russia, they sell honey under that label!