Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

[RajeshA]

Ensuring Maritime Access to India's Northeast
Focus: Rakhine State

By Nava Thakur
Opposing China’s Shwe project in Burma: Eastern Panorama

“The military rulers of Myanmar, which is otherwise facing heavy economic sanctions by the United States and many European countries, keep themselves alive with the royalty earned from selling the natural resources to other countries. But all this money is hardly used for any public welfare activities,” said M. Kim, an exiled Burmese living in India.

Speaking to this writer from New Delhi, Kim (who is associated with Myanmar Centre, Delhi) also pointed out that the present group of Generals (collectively called the State Peace and Development Council) have learnt the art of ignoring the concerns of international communities about the worst human rights record and also luring the neighboring countries (China, India and Thailand) into forging trade ties with them.

Once the rice bowl of Asia, Myanmar is today one of the poorest countries on the globe, but the military junta of Nay Pie Taw (new capital of Myanmar) spends over 40 per cent of its national budget on the defense sector. Shockingly, the dictators spend only 2 per cent of the budget on health and education (of 50 million Myanmarese people).

[RajeshA]

Ensuring Maritime Access to India's Northeast
Focus: Rakhine State

X-Posting from Distorted history- Causes, consequences, remedies Thread

Published on Dec 31, 2010
By Rakha Oung
The Rakhine Kingdom: Rakhapura.com

Most of the Myanmar historians who have written and published quite a number of Books and pamphlets relate that the Rakhaings were the kanyans, a branch of Tibeto Burmans who migrated from the Central Asia along with the Pyus and Thets. Some of them state that Rakhaings were a branch of Myanmar who wandered away from the region now honour as Kansu in Western China. Most of them try to say that the Rakhaings received their culture and religion from Pagan. These statements are indeed misleading and incorrect. Let us now repute these misrepresentations by putting forward certain important extracts taken from manuscripts written in English by late U Chan Toon of Sittwe. Here are the true facts regarding the origin of the Rakhaings, their Kingdom and their civilization, which spreads to the East across the Yomas.

The migration of people from Central Asia into Myanmar is a British conception and the development of Myanmar dependent on Pagan is a Modern Myanmar conception.

A Contortion of history

There is a pamphlet published by the Burma Translation Society which relates about the migration of people from Central Asia to Myanmar and as to how the development of the whole of Myanmar of today is dependent on Pagan. The migration of people from Central Asia into Myanmar is a British conception and the development of Myanmar dependent on Pagan is a Modern Myanmar conception. This pamphlet is contortion of History. It is therefore for the Rakhaings to prove that it is wrong. Pyu History will prove that it is wrong. It is for the Mons to prove that it is wrong. It is for the Shans to prove that it is wrong.


Rakhaing Mythological history

When writing history, mythological history will also have to be written for that will convey ideas of migrations. The Rakhaing history will here be related in brief showing when contest was made with Pagan with dates. This will show that Pagan is very recent and could not thus influence the other four Kingdoms. The Rakhaing mythological history relates about the first formation of kingdom by Maha Thamada was called Thagewon, and the Thagewon Kings took great pride in upholding correct principles when governing their subjects. Gautama Buddha was born in the Thagewon Khattreya Family and the Rakhaings of old have taken pride in their country being governed by Thagewon Kings from mythological times. Mythological history states that the seat of Government was first at Ramawady or Ramapura, the Ramree Island. Ramawady is an Indian word, Ram meaning God. Hence Ramawady would mean land of God. History then relates about the formation of 16 Provinces in India during the reign of Wara Aza Raza. There 16 Provinces which become Kingdom were formed before the time of Kakuthan Buddha. In the course of time 85 smaller Kingdoms were formed. Hence the whole of India is known in ancient times as the land of 101 kings. This came to be called Myitzima Daytha ending in the East at the mountain called Rakhaing Yomas today. The present day conception of Rakhapura being in Myanmar is wrong geographically, the Yomas bring the proof. Rakhapura was included in Myanmar on British conquest for administrative purposes. In ancient times Rakhapura and Ahyusapura were under one Government. Rakhapura included the whole of modern Bengal. Bengal was referred to as 12 Bunga towns, to capital being mauk-thu-za meaning the food of Mauk. The Rakhaings are still known as mauk (Mog) in Bengal.


Wathudaywa-About B.C. 4500.

Wathudaywa and his 9 brothers after conquering the whole of India lastly conquered Dwarawady, the present Thandwe area. For his greatness, the people of India worshipped him as a god, Krishna. We, Rakhaings, however, revere Wathudaywa, as one of our great kings. On the death of Wathudaywa and his 9 brothers at Dwarawady through very unfortunate circumstances, the sister of Wathudaywa, Asiana Daywee and Bramana Poona migrated to Waythali and Bramana Poona was made King by the people of Waythali (Vesali) for his great learning. 6 Kings descended from Bramana Raza and 16 Kings of the Tharaban Dynasty ruled over the country with Waythali as the Capital. Waythali came to an end when the last King Brama Theida met his death at the hand of Cannibals led by Nga Sat Dan.


Marayu B.C. 3341 to 3279.

Marayu the son of Arzuna the ascetic and Einda Maru became king in B.C. 3341 after defeating and extermination the cannibals. Marayu founded the Capital of Danyawaddy on becoming King. Danyawaddy is a town and not a province as thought by many today. Arzuna was King of Kapilawat before he took the life of wandering Ascetic. Indian historians traced his wanderings as far as Manipore, from genealogical tree. From Gautama Buddha we learn that the class in which Gautama Buddha was born is related to the clan that Arzuna belonged to.


Kan Raza Gree B.C. 1523 to 1486.

54 successors of Marayu reigned over the country till we come to the reign of Kan Raza Gree. On the death of the refugee from India, Abei Raza at Tagoung the two sons Kan Raza Gree, the elder, and Kan Raza Nge, the younger, had differences about succession. Kan Raza Nge succeeded his father's place and hence Kan Raza Gree accompanied by his followers migrated southward. He followed the course of the Irrawaddy, branched out towards the Chindwin and finally arrived at Kyaukpandaung over land. Min Nge Pyaw Hla had been murdered by his Ministers at Danyawaddy and succeeded by 3 Ministers, one acting for eight months, one acting for 2 months and the 3rd acting for 6 months. When the third was dethroned Kan Raza Gree became King. He took as Queen Saw Pyinya Naree of Rakhaing Royality and governed from Kyauk-pan-daung for 24 years, and finally shifted to the old capital, Danyawaddy. This is a case of claim to the throne through the female line, Saw Pyinya Naree.


King Sanda Thuria B.C. 596 to 544.

This is the most important reign in the whole history of Rakhapura and or it is during this reign the Gautama Buddha visited Danyawaddy and at the request by King Sanda Thuria left behind the Mahamuni Image. The image is not an ordinary one but due to the blessing given by Gautama Buddha after completion was addressed as "My Representative" by Gautama Buddha. Civilisation progresses in most countries after the adoption of a Religion. Before the adoption of Christianity most countries were in the dark ages in Europe. Religion brings about mental development by a study of the unknown. (Buddhism was the first religion to appear in the world, this was followed by Christianity and lastly by Mohammedanism).

Since the reign of King Sanda Thuriya, Rakhaing became scared country and it became the heart of Buddhism. Fore over 2300 years Mahamuni, the image of the founder of the Religion had remained on Sirigutta hill (the most holy object in the world).



We find that Buddhism was adopted by the Pyus at Tharaykhatra (Pyay/Prome) from the time of Dwetabaung Min, the proof being the 3 or 4 peculiar shaped Pagodas near Pyay. Dwetabaung was King about 100 years after Gautama Buddha passed away to Nirvana. Where could this land locked area received Buddhism from Dwarawaddy the adjacent territory. That the Pyus came over to Dwarawaddy for receiving religious training later events will prove. There was a golden standing image of Buddha at Dwarawaddy is stated in History. The Pyus made constant visits of pilgrimage to this scared image.

Buddhism was introduced into Geylon by the son and daughter of Emperor Asoka acting as missionaries. Most learned sayadaws give the exact date as being 201 years after the Gautama Buddha passed away to Nirvana. After being established in Ceylon, Buddhism spread to the Mon Kingdom. This may have taken place 300 years after Gautama Buddha attained nirvana. It is quite possible that Buddhism was spread from Ceylon or Southern India to Siam (Thailand) and indo-China.

Upper Myanmar got converted to Buddhism during the reign of king Anawrata of Pagan A.D. 1002 to 1035 (Kawza to 397). Anawrata got interested in Buddhism due to the arrival of a monk from Thaton by name of Shin Arahan. Although Anawrata was interested in Buddhism, he did not have the Buddhist scriptures. He had thus to wage a war against the king of Thaton, Manuha, in order to obtain the Buddhist scriptures. Anawrata not only received the Buddhist scriptures by waging a War, but also at the same time brought King Manuha as prisoner to Pagan. It has therefore to be considered as the Pagodas at pagan were designed and constructed by the followers of Manuha from Thaton.


Waythali-A.D. 310 to 776.

On Maha Sandra coming to the throne in A.D. 310 he had shifted from Danyawaddy to the more accessible place Waythali. Danyawaddy had been the capital for a total period of 3651 years, from the reign of Marayu in B.C. 3341 to A.D. 310. The Rakhaing came to Zenith of power during the reign of 9 Sandra Kings of Waythali from A.D. 310 to 752 or for a total period of 442 years. The power was due to the very pious King Maha Sandra receiving from Theekra Min Cellestial Spear, the Cellestial Horse and the Cellestial Ruby Ring similar to Wathudaywa. There are problems which we cannot understand today.

During the reign of 9 Sandra Kings of Waythali, all the surrounding countries including Bago, Tharaykhetra, Mogaung, Monyin, and Tagaung paid tributes to the kings of Waythali. Paying tributes meant the civilization at Waythali spread to the surrounding countries. It would therefore not be surprising if the people of upper Myanmar learnt how to read and write the Rakhaing characters of Ka, Kha, Ga, etc. We today are learning the British alphabets of A, B, C, due to the British rule of 118 years and still continue to learn the language after the British had left. This must have taken place in Upper Myanmar. This surmise would by quite correct for the Burmese pronunciation of words is not in accordance with spelling. The Burmese cannot pronounce "R" raraik because they speak from the tip of the tongue while as the pronunciation of the ra-raik is only correct when the tongue touches the palate. Hence words containing ra-raik can be correctly spelt by the Rakhaing on account of the correct pronunciation, while as the spelling would go wrong when the incorrect Burmese pronunciation is used.

We today speak English with wrong pronunciation as well as a wrong accent, because it is an adopted language. The same applies to the Rakhaing and the Myanmar language. We find that the Chinese cannot pronounce words spelt with "R" correctly while as the people of India can pronounce words spelt with "R" correctly. In fact words containing "R" is greatly stressed in India acting. This will show what civilizations had influence in Upper Myanmar before the adoption of the Rakhaing language, the Yomas being the boundry. We find that Indian Kaw, Khaw, Gaw, Gaw is identical with the Rakhaing Ka, Kha, Ga, Ga, Gha. This identity is proof that one is derived from the other although the Rakhaing alter the character afterwards. To state that all writings started from Pagan came into existence only in A.D. 1002 is incorrect.

When the last of the Sandra Kings, Sula Sandra, in A.D. 752, went up to Tagaung or Thaundwe in order to cure his headache, he went up the Ayeyawaddy by boat. On his journey the Kings of Bago, Tharaykhetra, Mogaung, Monyin, Tagaung paid their respect to Sula Sandra. There is no mention of Pagan. History is correct, because Pagan had not yet came to existence. Whenthe King was well received at Thaundwe, he forgot or did not make arrangements for his return. The Ministers therefore recited a verse, accompanied by Duria and this reminded the King that it was time to return. We should preserve and publish the verses sung by the boat crew on the journey up the Ayeyawaddy is utilising what Ka to Ah stands for. "A" for apple. "D" for dog is only recently introduced in the British way of teaching. The problem has been thought out during the reign of the Sandras. The Rakhaing Kingdom declined after the death of Sula Sandra who was shipwrecked on the return journey fro Tagaung.

*************

[Klaus]

Wasn't there something about USA wanting India to do something about Myanmar!

RajeshA ji, just to clear the air around the discussion, my comment was not meant to be a 'I told you so' kind of thing, my apologies if you felt that way after going through my post.

The West's agenda for India has always been to look (& focus) to its East and South-East, in securing maritime access to NE we need not bring in West at all, JMHO.

[RajeshA]

Wasn't there something about USA wanting India to do something about Myanmar!

RajeshA ji, just to clear the air around the discussion, my comment was not meant to be a 'I told you so' kind of thing, my apologies if you felt that way after going through my post.

Klaus ji,

I did not have that impression! Even if it were so, you're right! No need to apologize at all!

The West's agenda for India has always been to look (& focus) to its East and South-East, in securing maritime access to NE we need not bring in West at all, JMHO.

Klaus ji,

It is not an easy thing to try to bite off a chunk of territory of one's neighbor, regardless of how hated the neighbor is. For this one needs international support, especially in the UNSC, where we have no permanent seat, while the country sitting tight in Rakhine State, China, certainly has a veto!

For something like this, we need to move the international media and public opinion in tune with our moves, and that is something the West can do well!

In fact it is best if the suppression of the Rakhine people circus starts in the Western media and European capitals!

[RamaY]

What is the possibility of developing a SEZ that covers the area between India, BD, Myanmar, and Bay of Bengal? It can be a SPV with proportional stakes and free transit rights to all three countries.

Just a thought.

[AKalam]

I want to clarify certain things, for the record. Devesh ji has pointed out correctly that I have tried to categorize BRF participants in an earlier post, I think those comments of mine were made in haste. I should not be putting people in pre-made boxes, everyone here is unique and have their individual approach to understanding of problems and their proper solutions. So my apologies if those comments have hurt anyone's feelings. I would delete those comments, but that post cannot be edited now it seems.

RajeshA ji, you are welcome, it has been a great experience for me as well. I will continue to be at BRF.

India will always remain one of the most important countries for BD, if not the most important, and improving and maintaining good relations will always be important for both countries.

The direction we tried is not right for this current time period, but one can never be sure what happens in the future. Using Somnath ji's words, if and when there are such constituencies, perhaps there can be renewed push for some effort like this.

As for internal politics in Bangladesh and how it affects relationship with India, we in BD need to move away from this anti-India and pro-India model of BNP vs AL. Perhaps India can help by cultivating an even relationship with both parties. This will improve the relationship between the people of two countries and not have any ups and downs with this vital relationship when power transfer takes place after an election. I think AL is doing a very good job with maintaining good relations with India, BNP needs to learn from this and change their direction. Relation with the Muslim world clearly does not have to be at the expense of our relationship with India, it is clearly not a zero sum game, we can definitely have improvement of both. Relationship with PRC is probably more sensitive for BD, this should never be upgraded from trade and commerce to a security relationship. As we are in a sensitive geographic location for India, we should understand India's valid security concerns.

For other details of India-BD relationship, I would let the govts at both sides do their job and make improvements from the status quo where they can.

To answer B ji's concerns about Islamic consolidation, Islam like any other religion is only as good as how living and breathing humans practice it, so when human societies change, the practice of Islam will also evolve and change. As for the version of Islamism that finds a steady state after Arab spring, I believe it will be of a more democratic and leftist welfare state kind, than Mullahcracy, which has already been discredited in Iran. Everyone seems to be more hopeful about the Turkish model, which of course has a different history as the Ottoman core and militant Kemalist secularism in the past, but people will try to emulate that model of reconciling Islam with modernity, plurality and economic prosperity. This seems to be the going consensus. The youth bulge I believe will not accept Mullah's as leaders who do not have an acceptable vision for future.

Even if we cannot have neo-Mughal model, BD can still strive for further improvement of relationship between Muslim and Indic civilization where possible considering the presence of large number of fellow subcontinental Muslims in India and Pakjabi's constant effort to subvert this vital relationship. As mentioned earlier, a good understanding between Islamic, Indic Dharmik (SD) and Buddhist (which is of Indic origin) will be very good to foster trade and commerce and economic uplift in a united Afro-Eurasia, so I support RajeshA ji's effort towards the ASEAN and East Asian Buddhist countries, in that light.

We should be building bridges where it is possible to build them. A stable and democratic future Myanmar will be vital for regional trade between all neighbor countries, as it is literally blocking land route access to ASEAN countries, for both India and BD.

[brihaspati]

Akalam bhai,
my assessment about the "Arab spring" is based on assessing the existing strengths of Islamist organizations in the field. They would be far more advanced than political newbies and youth yet to form widespread networks and organizations - in taking advantage since they would not be constrained by "liberal values".

All previous "Arab springs" have gone the way of the ultimate balance of forces in respective societies where mullahcracy has been able to stride on both sides of the competition. The societal elements that supported Baathist regimes or a Q or a Mubarak or even KSA/Bahraini dynasty - are not dead and purged. They, the mullahcracy and portions of the army - together with their international sponsors - will quickly come to an understanding and power-sharing.

So the "youth" you mention will have to face this "disappointment" and then the next gen will be ready to start the process of unshackling. You can already see the mullahcracy in operation in trying to divert the popular anger towards "Israel" - and operation that will then provide the basis for calling a "national consensus" and collaboration between competing groups - forget "liberal" democracy.

[AKalam]

brihaspati ji,

You are talking about democratic evolution. Democracy is always work in progress.

USA they say is still a Republic, not even one man one vote for the presidential election, used to be more egalitarian after 1947, but now have become more of a corporate dominated govt. of, for and by the 1%, where wealth is transfering from the middle class to the top 1%.

India, the largest democracy in numbers, still has a long a way to go, mainly because of lack of economic opportunity for the masses.

EU is much better today than before WWII, so is Japan, S Korea and Taiwan.

Muslim nascent democracies like Turkey, Indonesia and Bangladesh have just recently gotten out of the clutch of their armed forces backed dictators. Pakistan is still under Armed forces control.

So the story for the Arab countries will be similar, it will be an evolutionary process. Voters will vote and learn, civil societies will form new parties, but the process of evolution with satellite TV and Internet media presence will be faster than before, I believe. Also, Arab countries overall has a higher level of HDI than the subcontinent, so I would give them one decade and a maximum of two to reach a steady state.

They still may not reach anywhere close to EU standard, but they will be a vast improvement from what we have now and will be getting better with every election cycle.

Even if Mullah's come to power, if they cannot deliver, they will be swept away. A Pakistan style pseudo democracy is not even possible in a country like BD, I cannot imagine Arabs putting up with this kind of fraud, but then I could be wrong. May be the Indic roots and influence is helping our democratic achievement in BD .

[brihaspati]

Akalam bhai,
I am definitely hopeful about the Arab spring. But the main problem that is shared between Pak and Arab world is the systematic destruction of alternative cultures free of the mullah that has gone on there for such a long term. Yes Arab spring may reach there faster - because it has been opened up more to the "west", but that also creates problems of its own. Imported culture can be made to seem scratch "native" H&D - and hence can be played on by the mullahcracy.

I still will give at least another generation of tussle before the mullah finally begins to slip. I am not so sure of the future trajectory of BD though. Something nags about the Islamist attempt at a backlash - not just the recent "capture" of the HUJI "mufti". They and their international backers simply could become desperate. If BNP manages a come back [which seems not entirely impossible] the Isalmists may not want to wait for another turn of the wheel. It may not be possible for the AL to return in the next stretch - what then? Who will see in that an opportunity? Civil society is toothless [amply proved on many occasions/"deshapremik" army lower ranks - which way?].

[somnath]

AKalam-ji, with respect, a lot of the sweeping civilisational axioms are vague and/or too "time-intensive" to be of any use to policy-makers, especially in a democracy with elections every 5 years..

About BD and India, our "best case scenario" is pretty clear (at least to policymakers on both sides)...BD can become a land bridge to India's NE, and reap benefits of closer economic integration with India...At some stage, not very far away, BD labour working in far-off places from singapore in the East to Europe in the West will find legal jobs in India through a work permit regime...Its linked in some ways..As NE integrtaes better with the Indian mainland, the economies there would start catching up with the rest of India, and there would be more demand for labour...BD can/will be that source...

With increasing economic engagement, govts in BD will find it easier to sell closer political engagement with India, incl naval berthing facilities...

Look at what is happening - the whole gamut of NE rebels are being handed over to India, something unimaginable till a couple of years back...Transit is being talked of in execution terms - couldnt be thought of earlier...

The future's bright...Wih or without civilisational dialectics

[brihaspati]

The same inherent perception faultlines - only something which is not an integral part needs "better integration". So NE has to be peddled as not yet "integrated"! But have not some of the state governments managed to reassure and develop close links with Christian "social control" orgs? This was referred to sometime ago, and the response to that on the forum, was silence. But how can that still earn the epithet of not being "integrated"? Or is it that more needs to be done to appease the particular faith orgs? Only then can they be "better integrated"?

[RamaY]

AKalam bhai,

I request you to watch the movie 'Agora' if you haven't already. That shows the methods of "no one can criticize the scriptures" ideology.

[brihaspati]

Well a blind commitment to "increasing trade decreases political/military conflict" dogma is not going to be helpful. "Empirical" work as I have indicated do not indicate only that direction of causality. But what to do if the difference between "elasticity" and "causality" is not "comprehended"!

Increasing trade does not automatically create conditions for selling "political ideas". Even that "selling" appears to depend on one party and one person's current term behaviour. As Akalam bhai has already indicated, [over the issue of CHT/Port] any such attempt at selling on things that really matter to India - will instantly negate "all" supposed political "warmth" and apparent support from the BD side. But, of course, no need to bother with all that - as long as a dogma of "trade dominates politics" exists!

[AKalam]

somnath ji, without civilizational difference and concerns there was no need to even have these borders. So that is the root of the problem, and the solution will come from reconciliation and accommodation of that difference, that is my simple understanding of the history in this region. Markets and economics may play some role in mitigating these differences in a limited way, but they can never resolve the differences completely unless the civilizations involved can come to some level of understanding, difficult as it is due to Pakjabi frauds posing as the leaders of Ummah and bothering India in the name of Islam and Muslims.

Discussions about India becoming a market for Bangladeshi labor export is premature. India has too many people possibly to ever need Bangladeshi labor. So that is some kind of pie in the sky. Besides labor will migrate to places where the highest salary is paid and India may not become the most attractive destination in the near or medium term. Fortunately today migrant labor travels by air mostly and distance is not a concern.

And you are reading too much into cooperation of AL govt. for NE rebel handovers, they are doing what is the right thing to do, something BNP also should have done. Transit is also the right thing to do for commercial trade, for the right fee of course, making sure that India takes care of the required infrastructure expenses and we get commercial land transit to other regional neighbors.

Cooperation and being a good neighbor does not mean that we will sell our sovereignty. Naval berthing is a no go area as far as I can tell, now or in the foreseeable future. Commercial use of Chittagong port, absolutely, in fact we are interested to turn this area into a regional hub like Singapore, but no defense rights to any neighbor on our territory that may be considered a threat to another.

If this is your level of understanding of Bangladesh (or geopolitics for that matter), you are way off the mark, I am sorry to say.

brihaspati ji, importance of HUJI and assorted miltants in BD is overblown, so is the importance of Armed forces in future political discourse. The Armed forces have been permanently removed from king making in BD, as far as I understand since 1991, thanks to our frypan wielding two fighting Begums . In 2007 the Armed forces tried to make a come back, but it proved once and for all that they are not welcome as King makers or rulers, the BDR incident being a brutal reminder, revenge and aftermath from the corrupt business/political class targeted during these 2 years of pseudo Army rule under the CTG. BNP may stage a comeback due to gross incompetence and corruption within AL ranks. Both political parties are infested by the same corrupt elements, so the public just alternates between them. What should help India's relation with BD is little less coddling of AL and a little more wooing of BNP, to avoid these warm and cold spells in relations.

RamaY ji, thanks for the suggestion about Agora, I will look it up, hopefully its in youtube or torrents.

Just saw your post b ji, but keeping my post unchanged to stress the same.

[brihaspati]

Akalam bhai,
can you throw the latest light on the BDR trials? Any news of affiliations and orgs?

[somnath]

AKalam-ji, I have a more pragmatic/optimistic take on things..Sure, there are differences on a various issues..But at least between BD and India, there are no fundamental "disputes"..The fundamental issue is of the apprehensive of a typical small/weak country towards a larger, stronger neighbor..

Discussions about India becoming a market for Bangladeshi labor export is premature. India has too many people possibly to ever need Bangladeshi labor. So that is some kind of pie in the sky. Besides labor will migrate to places where the highest salary is paid and India may not become the most attractive destination in the near or medium term

Labour follows the most "attratcive" market...India is already a very attractive market for what, 10 million Bangadeshis? Illegally now, but witha suitabl work permit system, they could work legally..And Indian salaries in many sectors today are as much as those in East Asia..Yes, even in the relatively low-skilled areas where BD labour usually participates, like construction in urban areas..

Cooperation and being a good neighbor does not mean that we will sell our sovereignty. Naval berthing is a no go area as far as I can tell, now or in the foreseeable future. Commercial use of Chittagong port, absolutely, in fact we are interested to turn this area into a regional hub like Singapore, but no defense rights to any neighbor on our territory that may be considered a threat to another

Well, using a port by a navy is not selling "sovereignty"..Its about cooperative political structures...It wont happen today..But closer economic ties, maybe a common market, freer movement of labour...And a decade hence, its not inconceivable...again, BD has no fundamental issue with India!

[AKalam]

"Bangadesh" will become a satellite of India? May be or may be not, time will tell.

[svinayak]

"Bangadesh" will become a satellite of India? May be or may be not, time will tell.

Today went to a Bangaldeshi alumni org event.

[RajeshA]

"Bangadesh" will become a satellite of India? May be or may be not, time will tell.

Today went to a Bangaldeshi alumni org event.

Acharya garu,

It would be interesting to know your impressions of the mood there, and if there was any insight gained about the India-Bangladesh relationship!

[svinayak]

They want to team up with our Indian org and participate

[RajeshA]

Just 3 decades earlier few in the world would have thought that Pakistani Army and USA would not be the best of buddies. Pakistani Army had pledged itself to provide services to the Americans, and the generals were able to ensure that their soldiers would fall in line with whatever they thought up, for the right price that is!

What has been interesting is that the freedom of the Pakistani generals to decide alliances and operations has been corroded to an extent that the mentality of the faujis need to be factored in. The generals are no more free. The Islamists among the lower ranks have in fact put the knife to the chest of the generals, and the generals sometimes have to do the splits between the Islamism of the lower ranks and the demands of the Americans, but the gulf is widening and the splits go only so far!

So Islam has basically pushed out the freedom of the generals to do servitude to the Americans.

And that is an important lesson India should learn from Pakistan. If the generals are not compliant, then it is possible to reorient them by ideologization of the lower ranks!

Now can we use those lessons to effect some change in Myanmar - so that the generals dump the Chinese and reorient themselves to the Buddhist rooted heritage of Myanmar people and directly or indirectly to the strategic interests of India?

India needs to loosen up her purses and invest the money where we can get strategic mileage out of every buck!

As I said earlier, Afghanistan is one place and as I say now Myanmar is the other place!

In Myanmar we need to get the Buddhist clergy to our side and let it spread its "tentacles" deep into the Myanmar society, influencing the mentality of each soldier who goes to serve in the army!

[RajeshA]

They want to team up with our Indian org and participate

Good to know! Thanks!

[brihaspati]

I think we are failing to realize some fundamental and structural differences between Islamism and SD/Buddhism - to think of using Buddhism in rallying the "lower ranks" of the army in Myanmar. The reason for the generals in Pak succumbing to Islamist swings in the lower ranks comes from an entirely different source - that is Islamism derives its strength from un-reason, whereas SD/Buddhism is constrained by its attempt to engage reason.

This makes it easier for opportunistic governments and more so the political groups behind them, to manipulate SD/Buddhism to keep them politically inert or ineffective by sponsoring or "activating" voices born within SD/Buddhist families but who try their best to challenge, discredit and denigrate their birth cultures. The key to understanding such political motivation is to note the special emphasis such voices place on trying to pain their birth culture as "oh-so-peaceful/never-resisting/and tolerant of everything and anything directed against them". This shows the inherent political weakness of SD/Buddhism in pressurizing their governments or the lower ranks of the army.

Islamism has no such constraints - it depends on faith and fanatical, unreasoning "submission". Even the Nazis realized the potential of the faith for the army. Moreover, every aspect of the faith as it is practised and its core doctrines - give it the virtual organizational psychological basis for an armed camp, whose sole purpose is to impose its physical authority on those who do not belong. This makes it difficult for any government, or "canis-pseudo-saecularis" species [to even develop] to delegitimize it openly and still remain alive or within the society itself. So governments or army top-brass in Islamist societies have almost never gone against their lower ranks or Islamist institutional networks. The rare exceptions were very temporary disruptions under abnormal conflicts of identity [language/nationhood - like Kemalist Turkey of the first 14 years, or the brief army split during '71 in East Pak].

What RajeshA ji wants can only happen under a militarization of the "commons" of those cultural system - it is easier to neutralize the faith component of SD/Buddhism in the armies by their commanders and the government because of the reasons stated above. Perhaps the reason, that canis-pseudo-saecularis/Maoists/Congress and of course the legal system and GOI all converge in their condemnation and hatred of the "Salwa Judum". In this they see a potential danger to their so far convenient suppression of "undesirable" faiths or cultures. One they realize has the potential to upset their respective apple carts.

These power bases stand upon a monopoly over violence which they use to keep afloat as minority groups. I think on this forum arrogant superciliousness bellowed about the all-sweeping overwhelming support by the majority for JLN or subsequent Congress led governments - but when showed the actual voting percentages have since fallen silent. This is of course characteristic of basic intellectual sliminess which will never acknowledge that it has been lying, or wrong, or simply carrying out propaganda on behalf of favoured political masters - but at the same time shows the real political considerations that work.

For Myanmar, only a widespread arming of the commons can force the military junta out. Armies help minority political groups to survive in perpetuity when people are disarmed.

[brihaspati]

Akalam bhai,
you should carefully note that the same voice which seized upon some manifestation of "cultural" overlap (like singing Rabindrasangeet on special occasions, or celebrating Poela Baisakh) as indicating political/national overlap, representative of immense political warming up and waning Islamism in BD - also suddenly turned hostile and unaccepting of formal mergers between these two supposedly "overlapping" societies within a formal state framework.

Instead the insistence is on financial flows which is however now being openly acknowledged as sort of buy-out/"bribe"/oiling-up to get "port facilities" for military purposes or transit only. Here there is no welcome for this supposedly overwhelmingly overlapping "in-common" society into the Indian fold - instead a deep seated hatred and distrust and a rather American state style cynical manipulation of BD.

At least you will be better off with people like me - who are prepared to go the extra mile without compromising on our own cultural roots to have a proper "merger". Without common sovereignty or a shared sovereignty - none of that we both hope for will happen. And if we can make that "melding" more than the merger, all of these talks about transit and "naval presence" will become irrelevant and redundant.

[somnath]

"Bangadesh" will become a satellite of India? May be or may be not, time will tell.

Satellite? BD will reap the benefits of a larger economic union with India as its engine, formlising its illegal labour in India and basically benefiting out of the "India story"....Actually, much mroe realistic than a fantasy on reunion! But yes, time will tell..ACtally, parts of it is already happening! Just read Daily Star

[RajeshA]

Some literature on Buddhist militantism

Code: Select all

http://www.fileserve.com/file/SPRdmDA

Reading from page 182 could be informative!

Myanmar situation:

Published on Sep, 2009
By Human Rights Watch
The Resistance of the Monks - Buddhism and Activism in Burma

Options in Myanmar :

Published on Jul 07, 2009
By Helen Buchan
New Light On Burma: Blog

[RamaY]

X-Posting from BD thread...

Almost all quiet on the eastern front

Now on to everyone's favorite topic - trade relations.

Sheikh Hasina has already agreed in principle to allow India to use its ports and roads for transit. The biggest difficulty for her party, the Awami League, will be to explain its new policy of engaging India to voters, in a country with a strong anti-Indian sentiment {for what one wonder. Is it because India helped BD partition from Pakis or India offer various trade incentives? or for India to remain a secular nation?}. Khaleda Zia, the leader of the main opposition group, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, likes to remind the electorate that under her leadership “no foreign vehicles” would be allowed to cross Bangladesh’s territory. {So much for developing economic and trade relationships; without solving the IEDeological nonsense}She declares that she will resist her rival’s “move to turn Bangladesh into a state of India”.

So who is against normalization of relations between BD and India?

[UBanerjee]

Ensuring Maritime Access to India's Northeast

Of course it would be optimal if Myanmar were to agree to merge with India at some point in time.

What is it about Indians and us daydreaming that each Indic nation surrounding us will leap into our arms and merge for the sake of what existed >1000 years ago?

It has to be made to happen.

And let me just add, Myanmar will never find real brotherhood with India so long as the ethnic question remains. In India people with chinese features are generally seen as strangers, so they feel like strangers. one reason for the continual neglect of the Northeast and the tumult in the same. Regardless of Buddhist links or otherwise, Burmese also currently see themselves this way- as ethnically different with more Oriental characteristics, as part of Indochina and not Indian Subcontinent.

[RajeshA]

Ensuring Maritime Access to India's Northeast

Of course it would be optimal if Myanmar were to agree to merge with India at some point in time.

What is it about Indians and us daydreaming that each Indic nation surrounding us will leap into our arms and merge for the sake of what existed >1000 years ago?

It has to be made to happen.

And let me just add, Myanmar will never find real brotherhood with India so long as the ethnic question remains. In India people with chinese features are generally seen as strangers, so they feel like strangers. one reason for the continual neglect of the Northeast and the tumult in the same. Regardless of Buddhist links or otherwise, Burmese also currently see themselves this way- as ethnically different with more Oriental characteristics, as part of Indochina and not Indian Subcontinent.

What is it about Indians and us (as if we were not Indians) daydreaming that it can be made to happen...

There is no stranger stuff in India. Do North Indians and South Indians look more alike than those from Norteast and CENTRAL india? Racism is not an issue. Being Indian has got nothing to do with looks!

[brihaspati]

X-Posting from BD thread...

Almost all quiet on the eastern front

Now on to everyone's favorite topic - trade relations.

Sheikh Hasina has already agreed in principle to allow India to use its ports and roads for transit. The biggest difficulty for her party, the Awami League, will be to explain its new policy of engaging India to voters, in a country with a strong anti-Indian sentiment {for what one wonder. Is it because India helped BD partition from Pakis or India offer various trade incentives? or for India to remain a secular nation?}. Khaleda Zia, the leader of the main opposition group, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, likes to remind the electorate that under her leadership “no foreign vehicles” would be allowed to cross Bangladesh’s territory. {So much for developing economic and trade relationships; without solving the IEDeological nonsense}She declares that she will resist her rival’s “move to turn Bangladesh into a state of India”.

So who is against normalization of relations between BD and India?

No, no, we must rely on Rabindrasangeet being sung in joint international functions, or celebration of Poela Baisakh, or "supposedly waning" Islamism as overwhelming indicators of support for greater strategic interests of India in and "through" BD. Even the advanced cultural and linguistic overlap with the "Indic" must be kept in mind.

Increasing trade will force all opposition to India within BD irrelevant and politically costly for all BD political groups. It will eventually make BD pliable to the real strategic interests of India, that of providing military transit and trans-shipment to NE through naval access.

Any counterexample that trade does not necessarily decrease conflict or opposition - does not involve BD and India, and hence is "out of context". However examples that trade appears to have reduced "conflict" even if not involving BD and India - necessarily provide irrefutable "empirical" argument that increasing trade and "commercial" investments will deterministically nullify and erase all opposition within BD towards India.

Trade dominates politics is a dogma and an article of faith, because even unequivocal empirical "arguments" cannot be provided, so BD-India should be treated as unique example for which this dogma will be proved to be right. Remember that the current regime and rashtryia system within BD is going to last forever.

[brihaspati]

RajeshA ji,
the question of militancy within Buddhist monks and sects is a very very thorny one, with widely differing opinions even among the various schools of Buddhism. So in that respect it shares the typical "Indic" problem where it concerns organized, militant movements with active frontal presence of "monks".

The monks can and should provide the ideological legitimacy aspect - but stay away from direct military confrontation. That should be the task of the "lay". That way a lot of internal contradictions can be avoided - at least for Myanmar.

[brihaspati]

If OBL has really been removed from the scene, it actually destabilizes TSP more. The processes of radicalization will actually accelerate, since the top brass of TSPA will in general now be seen as "betrayers". Therefore they will split along any pre-existing internal factions and the pro-radical faction will now try to clear its name and this means some "spectacular" action to revive morale of "Jihadists".

There are now two types of pressures. First the Pakis will demand some H&D from Washington. Second, the Pakis establishment loses the claim to Jihadi leadership, hence they will need to do something.

They have been trying to whip up anti-India hysteria based on obscurantist/supernatural/predictions/prophecy stuff for some time. We may dismiss it as ridiculous, but in Paki/Jihadi society of Pakjab, they carry mobilizational and expectational value. I guess the 2012/Mughalistan stuff was peddled with such an idea behind, but now they will have to bring forward whatever preparation they have had.
India should be game.

[Sanku]

I think any and all calculations about use of OBL hit as vehicle for pull out (and later use in WANA areas) is overtly optimistic, will not happen.

US is not going anywhere with the terror structure intact in Af-Pak region. What makes them think they can wound the beast and turn away for another fight?

Unless, they give us a "big boost" in many ways, that is. Unconditional, straightforward huge support. Irrespective of the political party in power.

[Muppalla]

US is not going anywhere with the terror structure intact in Af-Pak region. What makes them think they can wound the beast and turn away for another fight?

It is not going anywhere unless it is assured that future terror is all directed at countries other than west. Roll back to 1980s then US will be fine.

[shyamd]

They have bigger problems to deal with at the moment. GCC is forcing US to deal with Iran. israel is now sitting in a precarious situation - Its staring at a 3 front war.

OBL is just the excuse needed to pull out and focus on WANA.

India really needs to build up its muscles, Shourya's, Brahmos's, Agni's in 360 view. Form the Dharmic alliance is the need of the hour.

[UBanerjee]

US is not going anywhere with the terror structure intact in Af-Pak region. What makes them think they can wound the beast and turn away for another fight?

It is not going anywhere unless it is assured that future terror is all directed at countries other than west. Roll back to 1980s then US will be fine.

They simply can't count on that and they know it. The jihadi weapon is too unstable to be reliable and there is too much blowback associated with it. There is no time machine to go back to the 1980s. The past decade of martyr-making operations has ensured that.

Look at how Western Europe particularly UK is now infested with hardcore jihadi types. Chickens have come home to roost. There is no turning back the clock to get rid of this.

[Sanku]

It is not going anywhere unless it is assured that future terror is all directed at countries other than west. Roll back to 1980s then US will be fine.

They simply can't count on that and they know it. The jihadi weapon is too unstable to be reliable and there is too much blowback associated with it. There is no time machine to go back to the 1980s. The past decade of martyr-making operations has ensured that.

Look at how Western Europe particularly UK is now infested with hardcore jihadi types. Chickens have come home to roost. There is no turning back the clock to get rid of this.

Yups, its too late for US. They turn their back, its certainly going to get stabbed. They have faced it at least once (if not more) and we shall see it again -- if they want to try the stunt in WANA, its their funeral. But I dont think Obama is that stupid.

[RajeshA]

Some more literature on Buddhism and Violence

Code: Select all

http://www.misterdanger.net/books/Buddhism%20Books/Buddhism%20conflict%20violence%20modern%20sri%20lanka.pdf

Code: Select all

http://www.phil.uni-passau.de/fileadmin/group_upload/45/pdf/conferences/paper_j._schober.pdf

Quite interesting this following article!

Published 2009
By Martin Kovan
School of History, Philosophy, Religion and Classics
University of Queensland
Violence and (Non-)resistance: Buddhist Ahiṃsā and its Existential Aporias

[UBanerjee]

India really needs to build up its muscles, Shourya's, Brahmos's, Agni's in 360 view. Form the Dharmic alliance is the need of the hour.

An alliance implies allies.

[RajeshA]

Ensuring Maritime Access to India's Northeast

RajeshA ji,
the question of militancy within Buddhist monks and sects is a very very thorny one, with widely differing opinions even among the various schools of Buddhism. So in that respect it shares the typical "Indic" problem where it concerns organized, militant movements with active frontal presence of "monks".

The monks can and should provide the ideological legitimacy aspect - but stay away from direct military confrontation. That should be the task of the "lay". That way a lot of internal contradictions can be avoided - at least for Myanmar.

sorry for the delay! OBL hijacked the focus!

brihaspati garu,

I think there is a need for BRF to turn its attention to Myanmar and carefully study the possibility of

1. instigating a coup in the Tatmadaw (the Myanmar military), making it possible for those to take charge, who are in favor of India rather than PRC => study of the Myanmar army
2. getting Aung San Suu Kyi's party and other pro-India democratic forces to get control over Myanmar.
3. anchoring Burmese Buddhists closely to India, and empowering them to a level that they win control over the politics of war and peace in the country
4. furthering Arakanese/Rakhine separation from Myanmar
5. building a sort of confederation with Thailand and squeezing Myanmar in between, with each country Thailand and India biting off Myanmar, pulling away the various ethnicities towards each other at each end

1) In 1959, Ne Win's Tatmadaw published a booklet entitled Dhammantaraya (Dhamma in Danger), which declared that the Burmese communists posed a threat to Buddhism, and mobilised 80800 monks to hold meetings and denounce the local communist movement. What one can do is to extrapolate Dhammantaraya to mean Dhamma in Danger from Chinese Communists! Anybody who allies with Chinese Communists is considered a security threat to Burma, and would be sidelined. Ne Win was both the "author" of Dhammantaraya as well as the "author" of close relations between Burma and China. This inconvenient coincidence would of course need to be papered over. But the booklet gives any Usurper of Power a certain legitimation! Even without the legitimation, it should be possible to make Tatmadaw change course.

2) Aung San Suu Kyi is considered close to India. She graduated from Lady Shri Ram College in New Delhi with a degree in politics in 1964, so there is some sympathy for India. Let's also not forget that she is the daughter of the founder of the modern Burmese Army. Of course she married an Englishman, etc. and could be considered manipulable by the British, but she is still a Buddhist. India could consider offering her support if she too comes to the opinion that a merger with India is the only way to stabilize Myanmar and secure a democratic future for it. She may take the step, if there is some popularity for the concept in Myanmar!

3) How exactly the Buddhists in Myanmar are to be encouraged to resist Tatmadaw, and that too successfully, is an issue to which I don't have a perfect answer. What we want to have is a Buddhist clergy which feels that peace in Burma would only be possible if Burma merges with the Birthplace of Buddha ("One with Buddha" ). Perhaps the best way is to finance the Buddhist clergy to a level that they get even more depth in the Myanmar society, from where they can

• encourage the families of the soldiers working in the Tatmadaw to influence their sons to resist the generals from within, who refuse to acknowledge the supremacy of the Buddhist clergy and does not reorient their politics to seek a merger with India.
• Those soldiers who do not abide by the line, are excommunicated by their families.

So basically it is about raising a political issue - the national question - to a level of spiritual mission! Oneness with Buddha is possible only through a merger of Myanmar into Bharat - the land of Buddha! That becomes the line of Buddhist clergy, and they bear upon the military to adopt this line!

4) Rakhine people, also called Arakanese people, have had a history of independence and independence movements.
Some websites:
Rakhapura.com
All Arakan Students' and Youth's Congress

This is also the area where there were major findings of Gas which now the Chinese are going to get!

On their own, the chances are little that Rakhine State would be able to gain Independence, but with India's help it should be possible! If India gets Chin State, which is sparsely populated also into India, then India would be having a very secure access to the Bay of Bengal from India's Northeast! The Chin have to a large extent converted to Christianity and are also known as Mizos.

My previous post on the above issue.

If we support Rakhine Independence we can still claim that we are in fact for the territorial integrity of Myanmar, and as soon as Myanmar has a truly democratic political system, we would be more than happy to encourage Rakhine State to reintegrate with the rest of Myanmar! The separation is only meant to serve the democratic aspirations of the Rakhine people! We can also say, that we will continue to work with the regime in Myanmar for a transition to democracy, giving us the leeway to have relations with Tatmadaw despite biting off a piece of Myanmar!

5) India-Thailand Confederation would be a great mechanism of squeezing Myanmar. Instead of the centripetal forces (Tatmadaw, state structures, history, Buddhism) which hardly seem to keep centrifugal forces of separatism from overwhelming Myanmar's territorial unity, we increase the centrifugal forces! An India-Thailand Confederation would do exactly that! Also the chances that China would profit from this, would be minimized because India and Thailand would both coordinate their strategy in Myanmar but also at the same time offer the other ethnicities a composite narrative other than that of Myanmar.

Here India and Thailand can approach each and every one of the main Burmese ethnicities - Shan, Rakhine, Chin, Kachin, Karen, Wa, Mon, etc. Non-Buddhist India may not be able to exert the same level of pull on the Buddhist ethnicities, but in combination with Thailand, both India's Buddhist credentials as well as Thailand's Buddhist credentials would be magnified manifold!

India can also help Thais establish a better relationship of peace and comfort with the Cambodians, for otherwise the Chinese would make use of the situation.