China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

[Christopher Sidor]

Does anybody have an idea on how Rafael and EFT will fare against J-11/J-10/Su-27 of PLAAF? Also how will Rafael and EFT fare against the air defense capabilities of PLA/PLAAF?

[chackojoseph]

Does anybody have an idea on how Rafael and EFT will fare against J-11/J-10/Su-27 of PLAAF? Also how will Rafael and EFT fare against the air defense capabilities of PLA/PLAAF?

SU-27 varients like J-11, 15 etc were allowed to be made by China by Russia becuase it is based on "old technology" (Russian View). It is like F-16 with new gizmos. As I had written here EF could be chosen for MMRCA (and i think EF will win it), as it is closest what India could field against J-20 (among MMRCA comptetiors). EF, if selcted raises bar and most probably nullifies any Chinese MMRCA gains.

[Singha]

the J-11/J-15 is actually unlike a F-16 with new gizmos, because in F-16 case each new version had better stuff than previous block.

[shiv]

PLAN's cheap knock off, third rate fighters J-15
J-15
J-15
J-15

That is a completely new design. I have not seen a plane that looks like this before. But I think the Russians copied this design a few years earlier.

[chackojoseph]

As I see them, its another of Su-27 modification. But, I will be happy if someone point out why its a totally new design.

IIRC, this is the same method they followed with Mig - 21 and varients.

[chackojoseph]

the J-11/J-15 is actually unlike a F-16 with new gizmos, because in F-16 case each new version had better stuff than previous block.

I don't have any idea what cutting edge do Chinese posses.

[NRao]

As I see them, its another of Su-27 modification. But, I will be happy if someone point out why its a totally new design.

IIRC, this is the same method they followed with Mig - 21 and varients.

The J-15 should be a leap - to whatever extent. It is a tri-plane and that by itself should mean a redesign of control laws. Now did they do it themselves or got a good deal of "help" remains to be seen. Besides it seems to be a naval version, which has a dimension of its own.

What I am not very concerned about is the research data that is need to design new planes. Unless they have whacked it - and that is possible - or, bought it. IF they have such research data then I very much doubt that they would design a tadpole looking J-20.

Either way, they are making progress. Something to be concerned about, but not fear.

[Will]

To repeat what I know about Chinese military technology- I want to summarize this so that we all know and do not have to repeat these well known facts to each other.

• China is rapidly progressing
• Do not underestimate China
• China is sitting on US$ 1 trillion
• Quantity is quality
• China is manufacturing world class electronics
• You get what you pay for "You wan' cheap. You get cheap"
• Helicopters, Planes, ships and chips may look like copies of Western or Russian stuff, but inside they are all different and far more advanced. The resemblance is purely coincidental.

Having got that out of the way, let me ask, why isn't China trying to sell equipment to India? China exports mostly third rate stuff to India. China wants Indian business, but why not high quality military stuff? Why not exhibit all those radars and targeting pods in Singapore, Dubai or Paris - assuming that the meanie Indians are not allowing Chinese to Aero India?

OK - if India is a strategic rival - then why is China not selling top of the line equipment to others? All right. All right - you say China is selling to Pakistan. And Pakistan can't afford to pay so its gets less than top of the line stuff - or is JF-17 top of the line?

Maybe China feels that if they sell their latest and greatest others will copy their stuff. That is not possible. Nobody does this sort of copying. There are laws against it. No? I mean you buy from someone and sign an agreement and you honor that agreement. So there should be no problem selling top of the line Chinese avionics and weapons systems in exhibitions - to compete with the best in the world no? I mean - I saw - in the last couple of aero India shows - on display AMRAAM, Patriot, Mica, Meteor - you name it - it was there. Now I know that Chinese missiles are equal to the AMRAAM (or at least equal to the American hype about AMRAAM). Why not offer it for sale to friendly countries - like Gulf states. Libya. If Qadhafis forces can shoot down one Rafale with a Chinese AMRAAM equivalent - (what's it called Nanching-786?) - that would be a big trade blow no? And BRFites would brown their dhotis in next to no time. Faster than posting blurry photos of flying crock ery. All for a good cause.

[chackojoseph]

The J-15 should be a leap - to whatever extent. It is a tri-plane and that by itself should mean a redesign of control laws. Now did they do it themselves or got a good deal of "help" remains to be seen. Besides it seems to be a naval version, which has a dimension of its own.

What I am not very concerned about is the research data that is need to design new planes. Unless they have whacked it - and that is possible - or, bought it. IF they have such research data then I very much doubt that they would design a tadpole looking J-20.

Either way, they are making progress. Something to be concerned about, but not fear.

They came up with similar modifications on MiG-21: which included J-7 with delta and other modifications and J-8. They had some more modifications with different designations. It essentially remained a MiG-21 class.

[shiv]

As I see them, its another of Su-27 modification. But, I will be happy if someone point out why its a totally new design.

IIRC, this is the same method they followed with Mig - 21 and varients.

The J-15 should be a leap - to whatever extent. It is a tri-plane and that by itself should mean a redesign of control laws. Now did they do it themselves or got a good deal of "help" remains to be seen. Besides it seems to be a naval version, which has a dimension of its own.

What I am not very concerned about is the research data that is need to design new planes. Unless they have whacked it - and that is possible - or, bought it. IF they have such research data then I very much doubt that they would design a tadpole looking J-20.

Raoji
http://english.pravda.ru/world/asia/04- ... _pirate-0/

China Creates Pirate Copy of Russia’s Su-33 Deck-Based Fighter Jet
04.06.2010

China’s Shenyang Aircraft Corporation created a copy of a Russian deck-based Su-33 fighter jet. The Chinese model of the aircraft was called J-15, Interfax reports with reference to the May issue of the Kanwa Asian Defence military publication.

The Chinese fighter jet is based on the Soviet T10K training aircraft, which China received from Ukraine. Chinese engineers found it very difficult to solve the problem of folding wings of deck-based fighter jets. Now the problem has been solved.

It is not clear yet, if the new plane has performed its first flight yet: the Chinese Air Force does not have its own test center for the sea aviation.

http://aircraft.zurf.info/article/carri ... -air-force

In 2001 China acquired a Sukhoi 33 prototype (T-10K) from the Ukraine, which was researched and investigated by the PLA Navy. In 2006 Russia announced that China wanted to buy an initial batch of 7 Sukhoi 33's and started negotiations in 2007. This was not enough to re-open the production line, but it is likely that the license controversy around the J-11B (Flanker B with Chinese avionics) caused the negotiations to fail. Russia however is replacing the Sukhoi 33 with the MiG-29K, so the retired Russian Naval Aviation Sukhoi 33's may end up in China after all.

J-15

The Shenyang Aircraft Design Institute (601 Institute) is developing its own version of the Sukhoi 33, the J-15 Flying Shark. The J-15 is probably a combination of the J-11, which is a license built Sukhoi 27 and the Sukhoi 33. Contrary to recent reports no clear photo's or footage exist of a J-15 with arresting hook. J-15 prototypes are undergoing trials, but it might take some time before they gain operational status with the PLANAF.

[shiv]

By making exact copies of existing equipment, China is certainly solving some problems relating to experimentation and arrival of compromise design solutions for certain problems. If those copies are filled with the best equipment the results could be formidable.

China will not reveal the level of its tech apart from saying that all is good, all is very advanced. China does not have the confidence to go out and sell the "highest tech" that it claims to have developed. I find this puzzling, as I stated earlier. When China has no issues openly making copies, what would the problem be in openly selling them? What could any country do? Start nuclear war against China for selling clones?

One possible reason for not selling its tech outside is that the tech is so far out and advanced that the US and Russia and even India might copy Chinese tech. At the very least - any attempt to sell their latest outside would give others a chance to examine Chinese goods close up and get a good idea of where they are exactly. It seems to me that this is exactly what they want to hide - as part of typical Chinese obfuscation. But for a country that is so desperate to show its development and sophistication - I see this secrecy as absurd. Surely if you have something really good - all you need to do is mark up the price and sell it to trustworthy customers. That way people who see the capability of the equipment will really start shitting brix. Of course the final possibility is that the copied stuff is not really doing that well because copying the shape and size is not the same as copying the materials and the know how to make them. Chinese secrecy is the silliest and most childish ploy. Boastful statements that everything is top of the line, but everything is hidden would be laughed at in any other situation.

[chackojoseph]

Shivji,

When USSR fell, Russians found a ready opponent for US, i.e, China. They gave it all the tech they consider it "a gen behind." If you see the Russian space program, this fact is more open. Russians gave them the old capsule and China modified it with the hep of Russians themselves. Besides, China has paid them $$$'s for all these old tech. Recently, a Chinese gen acknowledged it. he said that Russians gave them a lot West has an embargo. He also wanted to reform PLA based on Russian experience . Companies like Salut and a lot of them would have been dead had these sales not been there. As long as Chinese did not buy the latest tech, Russians were willing to sell. J-10, FC-1 etc were being officially worked upon by Russian institutes. RD-33 for FC-1 is less powered then the original. There are a lot of examples. Some may be guided by restriction of sales etc.

Then, there is Ukraine. It gave a lot of Soviet era tech and the expertise it had to China.

[NRao]

Shiv ji,

I have no problem with your arguments. The Chinese - to me - are paranoid, specially the PLA Chinese.

CJ,

No issues. There was a IIT Bombay prof who suggested the same as an option to the "LCA". He lost the argument. He felt (and rightly I am told - by his two students) that India could rebuild a better "MiG-21" since India knew its -ves. By eliminating the -ves, he felt, India could - then, in the 1970s - come up with a good enough plane at a very cheap cost. So, the route the Chinese took is not amazing. (I guess you know that too.)

However, what I am impressed about and wish India had it - is foresight. India would have a different view and take a totally different route I am sure, but, I wish India had better foresight and to go along better proactive execution.

Coming back to the topic, the fact that China has been able to start plenty of projects is a +ve. That they ALL perhaps are closer to tin-can variety is a -ve. But time will tell.

I am of the opinion that China will have plenty to toot about for about 10-15 years, then - because they do not have the research to back them up - will collapse to a great extent.

I feel that the Indian approach is far better. It will take much longer for projects to get to where they should, but, due to the time/effort invested today, there should be better continuity and innovation.

[manum]

In one instance a Pakistani Pilot accepted that when Chinese general sat on F-16 at Paki base, first thing he did instinctively was to measure HUD by hand...as posted on BR somewhere...

so one can imagine reverse psychology has become their culture, its so embedded that they cant think of independently...Their whole system has been drugged due to this desperation of Achieving....a pill to make ordinary brilliant, this is something they can not come out of...Unless a generation change occurs...

[chackojoseph]

Coming back to the topic, the fact that China has been able to start plenty of projects is a +ve. That they ALL perhaps are closer to tin-can variety is a -ve. But time will tell.

I am of the opinion that China will have plenty to toot about for about 10-15 years, then - because they do not have the research to back them up - will collapse to a great extent.

NRaoji,

Necessisity was the mummy of Chinese reverse engineering. They had this habit of (still have) making a hole in the plate they get served with. They occilitated between US and Russia for their requirements and werehalf met. When they were anti US, USSR gave them MiG-15 and Mig - 21. Theyn they went against USSR, they recieved help from West untill Tianmen Square happened.

The earlier question was that they are making progress. My reply was that they haven't changed much. They still don't have a decent engine, they cant even make a plane to FC-1 level without Rissian help. China has been and will be a cheaper alternative with copied products in the market and they will be selling to rouge nations. They are not same league as US or Russia when it comes to be a power in real sense. They are just an handout power.

Someone asked what EF as MMRCA means to WRT Chinese. I had replied to that. IMO, EF will be good stopping power for J-20 or its likes.

[shiv]

One of the interesting facts about high technology as Indians are learning is that it takes plenty of work and lots of time, money and failures to get up there. It simply does not come easy.

In fact that is why the technologically advanced West and even Russian papers are generally skeptical about Chinese technology even as the acknowledge that the Chinese are moving forward. We Indians too have been exposed to teh way in which technology is denied until we develop it on our own - after which products using that tech are sold to us cheap to try and kill local innovation.

While I am constantly battered by warnings that I should not underestimate China - I want to point out that I have no intention of underestimating China or belittling her achievements. However I cannot help being contemptuous of all the bluster and pretence China makes even as they are openly copying. By all means copy - but stop pretending that it's all original. And the only way to be honest about what you have developed is to prove capability. One performance of a J-10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 or 16 doing a Kulbit in an international air show says more than one million forum posts. Chinese videos and photos are largely propaganda. They should not have had that reputation but China has voluntarily chosen to develop a reputation for low quality, copying and fraud. Anyone who has cheerfully bought MS Windows and Word in Shanghai for US $ 1 a copy should know.

[manum]

All Indian businessman who go to china for shopping...tell that there are three types of same products on offer, three grades good, medium worst...and Indians always order worst, third grade, that is why they go to China anyways...

now the question is who is harming whom...i.e. first, why china created three types of same products, what the psycho behind, If you make Rs. 1 lac car, then you make rs 1 lac car, you dont make a 75k car...the price can only go up from 1 lac...that is minimum...But they do three options...in which Rs. 1 lac car is highest standard, and 60k may be lowest, so Businessman orders 60 k car and sells it in 1 lac category...

summary is in this process, the buyers choice degrade their industry and force them to make 60k car...so who is harming whom?

[chackojoseph]

^^^^^ LCA trainer, LCA Mk1 , LCA M2 and LCA Navy is 4 versions. Of our own design.

One advantage LCA program had was the foreign consulting which makes up learning. Chineses relied upon the standard or the non-standard Russian ways of doing things. So, IMO, they have learnt zilch or milch.

[chackojoseph]

Wrong thread. Moved.

[Austin]

AW&ST: Chinese Buildup Upsets Strategic Balance

[manum]

i would really like to see China in action, atleast at some wargames...I am dying to see China in action...
is there any country who would call them to practice with them except pakistan?

Now these reports really dont create an impact on me...even if they are serious enough, they have pushed so further in propaganda that their ships dont feel more than building they built looking like a ship...

Its on them to prove they are not becoming a joke...I am already laughing...

[Sean Rowe]

There are two copter crashes and one missing along china border. Any sabotage...

[ashi]

A massive picture of J-20. Can see where the weapon bay is.

J-20

[shiv]

A massive picture of J-20. Can see where the weapon bay is.

J-20

Sorry. The picture is massive. Nice picture. But all I can see is a few faint lines that may be panels over a non functional future planned weapons bay. Clearly this plane has place for an internal weapons bay. But saying that one can see where that weapons bay is is only true insofar as we can see the belly and the weapons bay will be in the belly.

As an aside we SDRE's need to learn how the Chinese produce beautiful pictures that have great propaganda value.
This is a well planned, well timed image either taken by or selected by an expert whom I would admire and whose hand I would shake. The symmetry, the shock of seeing a huge beast behind the leaves and the mystery of some parts hidden make it a materpiece of photographic art

i don;t think HAL or ADA have ever produced one single picture as pretty as this one. The Americans are past masters and Russians are extremely good at videos as are the French.

But we Indians can only display dirty loincloths in comparison to the rich robes of the other countries when you compare official publicity photographs and videos. We just don't have it in us. We have Bollywood which is separate from GOI and DRDO. The latter produce some of the worst photographs I have ever seen in my life. And actually publish them without anyone casting a critical eye on the esthetic value of publishing a bad picture.

[shiv]

There are two copter crashes and one missing along china border. Any sabotage...

I have read that China controls the weather over the Arunachal Pradesh mountains.

[Austin]

A massive picture of J-20. Can see where the weapon bay is.

J-20

Nice photograph indeed , Great for PR and WoW effect frekin beast

The curves and smooth finish are quite visible , i do not see much of rivets there so either they have coated it with another material typical of stealth aircraft or they are using extensive carbon composite. The bays or atleast where it would be are visible just behind the landing gear

[shiv]

Vayu analysis of J-20. Click on image

[Austin]

There are some inaccuracies in that article , first Mig-1.42 never competed with Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA , there was just a Mig and Sukhoi proposal and the latter won and the project got designated as T-50.

Mig-1.44 competed with Sukhoi S-37 for MFI program and the former won , Mig-1.44 was a development program for the definative Mig-1.42 but with break up of SU the latter never materialized.

It is not in the realms of impossibility the Mig may have transferred some design of Mig-1.42 to China but this is just speculation since no one till date has seen any official Mig-1.42 , No one certainly in Russia in general defence circle that I have read so far has claimed any credit for J-20 design or acknowledge any help , like the do for other programs , to me the J-20 looks like their own effort in designing a FGFA although its too early to claim they are quite sucessful at it.

The Ukraine angle for engine is quite interesting they certainly have a very mature design and development bureau that makes good civilian engine , they can certainly be of great help to Chinese and Ukraine do no hesitate to help them as they do not have any thing to loose and much to gain in financial terms

There were reports that the new PESA radar on newer Chinese destroyer has been developed with Ukraines assistance and that they provide a single carrier capable Su-27 for chinese to learn and develop their own types.

[ashi]

One of the side weapon bays is opened

J-20
J-20
J-20

[DavidD]

A massive picture of J-20. Can see where the weapon bay is.

J-20

Sorry. The picture is massive. Nice picture. But all I can see is a few faint lines that may be panels over a non functional future planned weapons bay. Clearly this plane has place for an internal weapons bay. But saying that one can see where that weapons bay is is only true insofar as we can see the belly and the weapons bay will be in the belly.

As an aside we SDRE's need to learn how the Chinese produce beautiful pictures that have great propaganda value.
This is a well planned, well timed image either taken by or selected by an expert whom I would admire and whose hand I would shake. The symmetry, the shock of seeing a huge beast behind the leaves and the mystery of some parts hidden make it a materpiece of photographic art

i don;t think HAL or ADA have ever produced one single picture as pretty as this one. The Americans are past masters and Russians are extremely good at videos as are the French.

But we Indians can only display dirty loincloths in comparison to the rich robes of the other countries when you compare official publicity photographs and videos. We just don't have it in us. We have Bollywood which is separate from GOI and DRDO. The latter produce some of the worst photographs I have ever seen in my life. And actually publish them without anyone casting a critical eye on the esthetic value of publishing a bad picture.

If by functional you mean it can shoot missiles then it probably isn't functional, but I'm sure it can open, wouldn't be so hard to do that. In other words, it's likely that those faint lines are due to good craftsmanship, not because they can't open(see ashi's post for example).

[shiv]

If by functional you mean it can shoot missiles then it probably isn't functional, but I'm sure it can open, wouldn't be so hard to do that. In other words, it's likely that those faint lines are due to good craftsmanship, not because they can't open(see ashi's post for example).

So those lines are being highlighted to show fine Chinese craftsmanship? Thanks for letting me know that. I did mention that the belly would be the obvious place to put the doors and was wondering why people were at pains to show where those doors are? It would have been sufficient to say "The doors are invisible due to fine craftmanship but they are there". Isn't that all that has been said so far? We still don't know whether they can be opened or not.

Why are they straight lines while the undercarriage doors are serrated?

[DavidD]

If by functional you mean it can shoot missiles then it probably isn't functional, but I'm sure it can open, wouldn't be so hard to do that. In other words, it's likely that those faint lines are due to good craftsmanship, not because they can't open(see ashi's post for example).

So those lines are being highlighted to show fine Chinese craftsmanship? Thanks for letting me know that. I did mention that the belly would be the obvious place to put the doors and was wondering why people were at pains to show where those doors are? It would have been sufficient to say "The doors are invisible due to fine craftmanship but they are there". Isn't that all that has been said so far? We still don't know whether they can be opened or not.

Why are they straight lines while the undercarriage doors are serrated?

I'm not sure what you're talking about. What highlighted lines? Which straight lines are you talking about?

[shiv]

I'm not sure what you're talking about. What highlighted lines? Which straight lines are you talking about?

The lines of the internal bomb bay doors appear to be straight lines, the undercarriage doors have stealthy serrated edges.

[shiv]

J-20

This photo - fat, large plane, large "wetted area" reminds me of two separate articles by Prof Prodyut Das in which he states his (always original ) opinions about stealth

The links to the scanned articles from Vayu are at bottom - but I have just extracted the essential bits in the image below


The articles
https://rapidshare.com/files/459447231/ ... -spear.pdf
https://rapidshare.com/files/377207669/ ... impler.pdf

[Gaur]

^^
Sirji, I find myself mystified every time I read the good professor's theory of aircraft stealth depending upon phase of moon!
What does that mean?

[shiv]

^^
Sirji, I find myself mystified every time I read the good professor's theory of aircraft stealth depending upon phase of moon!
What does that mean?

Visibility with night vision devices and sensitive low light detectors I guess. Just a guess BTW - I am no expert - but Das seems to know a lot more than I do.

[RamaY]

Gaur ji

Another crumb in that journey http://openseti.org/Hall.html
Scroll down to the approaching and departing paths of deep space crafts...

[Gaur]

^^
Sirji, I find myself mystified every time I read the good professor's theory of aircraft stealth depending upon phase of moon!
What does that mean?

Visibility with night vision devices and sensitive low light detectors I guess. Just a guess BTW - I am no expert - but Das seems to know a lot more than I do.

I see. I was thinking in terms of radar stealth. Thanks anyway.

Gaur ji

Another crumb in that journey http://openseti.org/Hall.html
Scroll down to the approaching and departing paths of deep space crafts...

That looks like a UFO conspiracy page at a glance. Is there really something worthy of reading there or were you being sarcastic at Proff Das?

[sanjeevpunj]

The recent saving of a Chinese merchant Ship from Somalian pirates, 450 KM off Karwar's coast will definitely improve Indo-China relations.

[aniket]

Amen to that