Libyan War : Political and strategic aspects

[RamaY]

...

all would be peace and quiet now if Qadhafi had a nuclear weapon and chose to test it somewhere in the desert.

uk-france would disappear in 5 mins, followed by their mentor and leader...

he would probably still be a munna and be hailed as a stabilizing force and reformer after crushing the benghazi uprising which would be denounced as a AQ plot. the very same man , the very same regime.

Catchingup with the thread...

One should learn from west. ..they are using libyan money to run a war against libya using libyans buying western arms. ..

[ramana]

GD posted in other thread....
apparently a unit of berber rebels in western libya retaking a village...first video I have seen where everyone is not shouting AoA AoA continuously
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyYHuPTo ... r_embedded

misrata street fight
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxyQyY2c ... r_embedded

this tank was hiding inside a market, but a bomb claimed it (lots of molten aluminium near it in another pic. maybe parts of the bomb casing was aluminium and melted when the tank burnt)
http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/4660/x800zg.jpg
http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/2627/800xt.jpg

[CRamS]

RamaY/Singha,

Its indeed tragic whats going on in the mid east. The fighting clowns, masked by their hatred of each other, have lost sight of the game US and its lackeys are up to. There is a lesson in this for India. I recall several years ago, one dork on DDM, D'Souza something, was calling for US internention after Gujarat riots if I recall. Can you imagine the number of RNIs in India who, like the so called rebels in mid-east, will welcome US intervention in India?

Singha, one doesn't even need nukes. Look at Bahrain. The dictator, USA's SOB there cleaned up the protests by Shias in a heartbeat and US stood by and watched. Ad you know why.

[abhischekcc]

^ that must have been Dinesh Dsouza.

[devesh]

dinesh dsouza is in US media. not DDM. isn't DDM specifically India media?

[Vikas]

So what did Gadhaffi do to not end up as Munna like other dictators in the ME ? He gave up nuclear program, stopped financing terror activities, Was throwing money at Professors in UK, and was developing good relations with Europe. What changed ?

[Rudradev]

Devesh ji, you are right. It was Dilip D'Souza, a Rediff commentator and Resident Non-Indian, who asked publicly for US intervention (on "human rights" pretext) after the 2002 riots.

Dinesh D'Souza is a US citizen, and a conservative think-tanker, of Indian origin. AFAIK he does not generally comment on matters that do not directly concern the US polity.

[Johann]

Yes, within a week we will be down to HSLD and dumb bombs and our sorties will be increasingly vulnerable to Paki air defence systems (no chance that we will knock them all out in an initial display of overwhelming shock and awe.)

Within three-four weeks of hostilities, TSPAF may be completely finished. However, I would guess that probably half (or less) of our initial air strength will be serviceable by that point.

And that's as good as IAF being knocked out... because if we keep on losing planes and the Chinese open a new front at that point, we are phugged. Whatever we achieve on the ground will have to be achieved in three weeks, after which the IA in Pakistan cannot count on IAF support.

That is the true cost of facing the spectre of a two-front war. Even if the Chinese don't actually do anything, the mere possibility of their becoming involved places severe constraints on our armed forces that greatly strengthens Paki conventional capability relative to ours.

- The Pakistanis have not traditionally invested in ground-based air defence networks. They have preferred to rely on a s3xier fighter based air defence.

- One of the reasons the GoI looks for strategic relationships with suppliers (rather than just tech specs or price points) is their willingness and ability to surge emergency supplies of munitions and spares during an unexpected crisis or war such as Kargil. Countries like Israel with fairly deep war reserves, and an agile as well as advanced industrial base are very attractive under such circumstances. I wouldn't be surprised if you saw a peak, followed by a dip and then another peak in terms of PGM usage as supply and distribution issues are tackled on a crash basis.

- The growth of India's nuclear deterrent (i.e. putting Beijing within range) may relieve some of the pressures on conventional forces as far as the implicit threat of a 2-front war go. If the the PRC -who have been risk averse since the 1980s when it comes to actual war- really did want to get involved they may find it easier to send a Korean style 'People's Volunteer Army' to help the Pakistanis in Pakistan - especially since there is already some sort of Chinese presence in Gilgit-Baltistan. The PVA approach avoided a nuclear attack by the US, even when senior military figures like Macarthur and Curtis LeMay were itching for it.

[Theo_Fidel]

The rebels look a lot more prepared and organized now. Their tactics are improving. The key question is when Gaddafi starts running out of POL, weapons and cash. He is not replenishing these things while expending them in great amounts. As Misurata has shown once the fighting goes street to street the Gaddafi clan is unable to press forward. That Musurata bunch look truly battle hardened now.

http://www.france24.com/en/20110427-fro ... tanks-nato

In the western Libyan town of Ajdabiyah, the dusty streets are still empty more than two weeks after the locals fled. Just an hour away, Gaddafi’s forces lie in wait. This is the frontline between the rebels and the regime army.
The rebels are preparing to push west, toward the oil city of Brega. They have a bold new name – the Free Libyan Forces – and a new logo.

“I'm a soldier,” shouts one of the insurgents, holding up his red arm band defiantly. “I'm part of the army!”

While their weapons haven’t changed, these fighters are now equipped with bulletproof vests and are laying down strict military orders. “Journalists aren't allowed beyond that point over there,” one of the soldiers tells our reporters on the road toward Brega. “That’s what it says on the sign.” Civilians are stopped, too.

Just a few weeks ago, a large part of the same army resembled a sloppy volunteer group. “The rebel army was really disorganised,” says Allah, one of the soldiers with previous military training. "Everyone did what they liked. But now there is a structure and they work with the national security council.”

The rebels say that coordination with NATO has improved in the past few weeks. On the frontline, the mission is to locate the enemy. “We try to locate tanks and pass the information on to NATO,” explains the chief of operations, Hamid el Hassi. “Then NATO decides whether to carry out an airstrike or to set up an ambush."

[Klaus]

Sayf al-Arab Gaddafi has been killed in an airstrike! Link.

Shortly before this development, Q's calls for peace talks were rejected by the rebels and NATO: Link.

[shyamd]

^^ and Saif's 3 sons.

[CRamS]

Its pathetic man, killing & massacring Quadaffi's grand kids. Give me a f%^&*ing break. As I said before, anybody cheering any side ought to be ashamed of themselves. There are no good guys in this. But the whites stooping so low? And Libyans cheering the masacre of their own. Thoo. What a gory colonial spectacle.

[devesh]

Its pathetic man, killing & massacring Quadaffi's grand kids. Give me a f%^&*ing break. As I said before, anybody cheering any side ought to be ashamed of themselves. There are no good guys in this. But the whites stooping so low? And Libyans cheering the masacre of their own. Thoo. What a gory colonial spectacle.

++1.

traitors and turncoats everywhere have same mentality. foreign imperialists bombing your country is a cause for celebration for them. what did the grand kids do? what about all the moralizing BS about justice/liberty? killing innocent kids...is this what freedom and justice is about???

[Neshant]

^^^
+2

You can be sure if India was in chaos and divided on the basis of khalistan & other terrorist & separatist goons, the same fate would be visited upon us. Anyway, here's an interesting prespective on the real reason for the invasion of Libya, beyond just its resources. Gadaffi dared to propose an alternate system of money reserves & payment (gold dinar) to the printed up paper USD & Euro for all of the Middle East and Africa.

I do believe the European states want to keep the continent of Africa enslaved and in debt and that's the reason for this war.

The Libyan War, American Power and the Decline of the Petrodollar System

http://www.truthout.org/libyan-war-amer ... 1304182235

[CRamS]

Neshant:

Thats exactly what I was thinking in my mind. I am reading Rajiv Malhotra's book: breaking India, and I can guarantee you, there will significant numbers of RNI traitors cheering and colluding with the whites & other foreign invaders should such a fate ever be visited on India.

How do these NATO chutiyas sleep and night.

[devesh]

^^^ from the above link:

The US$30 billion frozen by Mr Obama belong to the Libyan Central Bank and had been earmarked as the Libyan contribution to three key projects which would add the finishing touches to the African federation – the African Investment Bank in Syrte, Libya, the establishment in 2011 of the African Monetary Fund to be based in Yaounde with a US$42 billion capital fund and the Abuja-based African Central Bank in Nigeria which when it starts printing African money will ring the death knell for the CFA franc through which Paris has been able to maintain its hold on some African countries for the last fifty years. It is easy to understand the French wrath against Gaddafi.

It began in 1992, when 45 African nations established RASCOM (Regional African Satellite Communication Organization) so that Africa would have its own satellite and slash communication costs in the continent. This was a time when phone calls to and from Africa were the most expensive in the world because of the annual US$500 million fee pocketed by Europe for the use of its satellites like Intelsat for phone conversations, including those within the same country.

An African satellite only cost a onetime payment of US$400 million and the continent no longer had to pay a US$500 million annual lease. Which banker wouldn’t finance such a project? But the problem remained – how can slaves, seeking to free themselves from their master’s exploitation ask the master’s help to achieve that freedom? Not surprisingly, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the USA, Europe only made vague promises for 14 years. Gaddafi put an end to these futile pleas to the western ‘benefactors’ with their exorbitant interest rates. The Libyan guide put US$300 million on the table; the African Development Bank added US$50 million more and the West African Development Bank a further US$27 million – and that’s how Africa got its first communications satellite on 26 December 2007.

we see how the various institutions are basically a checks and balance system to keep non-establishment powers from becoming free of the system.

[CRamS]

Shows you Regan or Bushies or Clinton or Obama foreign poilcy is identical, especially bombing the crap out of 'lesser people' to secure their interests. Obama of course has to ride the wave, but I can bet you in his heart of hearts, he knows the evil machinations going on, but can't do didly squat.

[devesh]

CRamS ji, they are all cut of the same cloth. in Obama's case, he has to "prove his worth" b/c he is Black. so, he has even more incentive to do even more harakiri.....Libya is really low, even for the West.

[CRamS]

Devesh,

Absolutely, thats why I have lost total respect for Obama. He is just happy to hob knob with the white elites who installed him presdient, but he can never show leadership. It seems to me not much difference between Bush's bold-faced lies on Iraq WMD, and Obama's bogus claim of an imminent civilian massacre by Quaffafi in Benghaazi. Obama has to show he is more loyal than the king lest Donald Trump and Sarah Palin and their millions of worshippers demand that he show yet another certificate to show his loyalty. Disgusting.

[Klaus]

Anyway, here's an interesting prespective on the real reason for the invasion of Libya, beyond just its resources. Gadaffi dared to propose an alternate system of money reserves & payment (gold dinar) to the printed up paper USD & Euro for all of the Middle East and Africa.

I do believe the European states want to keep the continent of Africa enslaved and in debt and that's the reason for this war.

If this is true, then why did China & Russia not include this in an official manner while advocating and campaigning for an alternate global currency as a fiat currency? If anything, that move would have gathered increasing momentum.

Or were they in the process of doing so prior to the NFZ enforcement?

[Neshant]

China cannot exit the dollar and shift its investments to gold in any great quantity. This is because the gold market is miniscule.

Only about 200 to 250 tons of gold are mined annually I think. Equivalent worth is about 7 billion or so. Compare that to the blizzard of paper currency being created out there.

If China were to even use 100 billion of its 3 TRILLION in reserves to start buying gold, the spot price of gold would do a moon shot. Their remaining 2900 worth of paper currency would crash in value as the market panicked that the chief creditor was offloading paper.

Its a catch-22. You want to get out but you don't want to cause a stampede in which you get trampled.

At best they can accumulate physical gold in stealth. A little here, a little there while pretending they don't have much and hoping that they don't move prices up too much. Gold prices would have to be substantially higher however to absorb anywhere near 2900 worth of toilet paper offloading. Only advantage China has is that its become the largest producer of gold in the world and soon the largest consumer (to consume their own produce). However there's not enough gold around as mentioned to offload this paper.

Smaller oil producing countries and India however do not have this dilemma. We have not got into the "paper collecting" business and our forex reserves are only for transaction use... not as a savings. So we can grab 200 tons of physical gold from the IMF as we did earlier while these fiat paper pushers and paper consumers sweat it out. One more large purchase like that by India (or an oil producer) and all hell will break loose in the global currency markets. Unlike the small oil producers like Libya however, India cannot be invaded to stop it.

So my guess is that an international currency (which in time will prove just as worthless as national fiat paper) is coming soon and India will be given a seat at this high table. The SDR will have an Indian Rupee component in exchange for not doing the above.

[Klaus]

So my guess is that an international currency (which in time will prove just as worthless as national fiat paper) is coming soon and India will be given a seat at this high table. The SDR will have an Indian Rupee component in exchange for not doing the above.

With an associated movement toward standardisation and having 4-6 regional currencies for the entire world? To keep the discussion in perspective, could it be said that Q was thinking slightly ahead of his time with regard to his plans for the African Union currency and related matters?

[habal]

With oil price hikes, Libya & Gaddafi really had the werewithal to improve the stock of Africa. This is what the coalition of evil has sought to nip in the bud.

[joshvajohn]

Gaddafi's youngest son, 3 grandchildren killed in NATO strike
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/gadda ... ke/784125/

The best way out for Gaddafi is to resign and give the governance to one of his senior ministers and ask him to negotiate with his people and conduct election within 6 months and the allow people to elect their own leaders including Gaddafi's party - may be one of his sons can also contest - if they are so popular then people would vote for them. This would reduce further bloodshed of his own people.

Gaddafi ready for ceasefire, refuses to step down
http://en.rian.ru/world/20110430/163793023.html

[CRamS]

I was watching Fareed bhai on GPS. True to living up to what is expected of him, not one word about the slaughter of Quaddafi's son & garnd kids by the NATO gangsters.

[RamaY]

The best way out for Gaddafi is to resign and give the governance to one of his senior ministers and ask him to negotiate with his people and conduct election within 6 months and the allow people to elect their own leaders including Gaddafi's party - may be one of his sons can also contest - if they are so popular then people would vote for them. This would reduce further bloodshed of his own people.

Gaddafi ready for ceasefire, refuses to step down

This is exactly the "reconquista thru democracy" that I was talking about in future strategic scenarios thread with AKalam. If west is so interested about reducing further bloodshed why cant they accept Q's offer in bold part?

Who and how one decides whether one should give up power? What business NATO has in Libya to start with?

[UBanerjee]

Its pathetic man, killing & massacring Quadaffi's grand kids. Give me a f%^&*ing break. As I said before, anybody cheering any side ought to be ashamed of themselves. There are no good guys in this. But the whites stooping so low? And Libyans cheering the masacre of their own. Thoo. What a gory colonial spectacle.

++1.

traitors and turncoats everywhere have same mentality. foreign imperialists bombing your country is a cause for celebration for them. what did the grand kids do? what about all the moralizing BS about justice/liberty? killing innocent kids...is this what freedom and justice is about???

Without foreign imperialists those "traitors and turncoats" would be butchered in cold blood themselves (and already were being slaughtered like insects). I guess they should have gone along with that for the greater good of the nation, oops I mean the Gaddafi clan's magnificence. The moral outrage here is fairly rich, this is no black and white scenario.

Whether 9/11 or Gulf War 2 or Libyan bombing campaign, you reap what you sow.

[Pranav]

Without foreign imperialists those "traitors and turncoats" would be butchered in cold blood themselves (and already were being slaughtered like insects). I guess they should have gone along with that for the greater good of the nation, oops I mean the Gaddafi clan's magnificence. The moral outrage here is fairly rich, this is no black and white scenario.

Whether 9/11 or Gulf War 2 or Libyan bombing campaign, you reap what you sow.

Hello, those reports of large scale massacres were propaganda, just like "babies being thrown out of incubators".

[UBanerjee]

Without foreign imperialists those "traitors and turncoats" would be butchered in cold blood themselves (and already were being slaughtered like insects). I guess they should have gone along with that for the greater good of the nation, oops I mean the Gaddafi clan's magnificence. The moral outrage here is fairly rich, this is no black and white scenario.

Whether 9/11 or Gulf War 2 or Libyan bombing campaign, you reap what you sow.

Hello, those reports of large scale massacres were propaganda, just like "babies being thrown out of incubators".

So the deaths of these "children" is also "propaganda". It cuts both ways.

Please.

One way to avoid getting putting your magnificent family in danger of martyrdom is to avoid turning heavy weaponry and aircraft on people who are tired of living under the jackboot of a cuckoo (these were all imagined also, CIA hallucinations) (gunfire and use of mortars/rockets all hallucinations only)

Sure, retribution may not come and you and yours may live long and happy lives. Maybe it will come.

[Pranav]

Hello, those reports of large scale massacres were propaganda, just like "babies being thrown out of incubators".

So the deaths of these "children" is also "propaganda". It cuts both ways.

Please.

One way to avoid getting putting your magnificent family in danger of martyrdom is to avoid turning heavy weaponry and aircraft on people who are tired of living under the jackboot of a cuckoo (these were all imagined also, CIA hallucinations) (gunfire and use of mortars/rockets all hallucinations only)

Sure, retribution may not come and you and yours may live long and happy lives. Maybe it will come.

Hello, try reading this: False pretense for war in Libya? - http://articles.boston.com/2011-04-14/b ... -positions

[CRamS]

deleted

[CRamS]

Please.

One way to avoid getting putting your magnificent family in danger of martyrdom is to avoid turning heavy weaponry and aircraft on people who are tired of living under the jackboot of a cuckoo (these were all imagined also, CIA hallucinations) (gunfire and use of mortars/rockets all hallucinations only)

Sure, retribution may not come and you and yours may live long and happy lives. Maybe it will come.

Oh yeah, its none of your f%^&ing business nor mine nor the NATO gangsters' business as to how Libyans live their lives. And please, this is BR where the IQ level is a tad higher than the Americans you probably hang out with, but do really take this puke of helping the civilians nonsense seriously? If so, I've got a long list where you can tell your American pals where can go & help. Give me a f$%&ing break. And how come the same jackboots of a cuckoo today is your pal tomorrow and agian jackboot day after? The frequency with Carla Bruni changed her lovers. Whom are the NATA chutiyas trying to fool?

[Pranav]

Susan Rice’s V.i.a.g.r.a Hoax: The New Incubator Babies - http://www.antiwar.com/blog/2011/04/30/ ... or-babies/

[Theo_Fidel]

There is a rumor that Saif Al-Arab defected in the early days and then ran back to Papa. It is possible papa was not very forgiving.

[RamaY]

One way to avoid getting putting your magnificent family in danger of martyrdom is to avoid turning heavy weaponry and aircraft on people who are tired of living under the jackboot of a cuckoo (these were all imagined also, CIA hallucinations) (gunfire and use of mortars/rockets all hallucinations only)

Sure, retribution may not come and you and yours may live long and happy lives. Maybe it will come.

Before judging Q one has to see his rule from multiple angles.

1. Is it any different from an average Islamic nation?
2. Did his rule do more common good/bad to his people? Libya is rank 58 in HDI well ahead of BRIC nations. Its percapita GDP is $13K
3. Did Q resort to mass violence against his own people before?
4. How did west play him for/against Islamic nations?

[Theo_Fidel]

1. Is it any different from an average Islamic nation?
2. Did his rule do more common good/bad to his people? Libya is rank 58 in HDI well ahead of BRIC nations. Its percapita GDP is $13K
3. Did Q resort to mass violence against his own people before?
4. How did west play him for/against Islamic nations?

By that standard the British Raj would be going strong in India. The peoples opinion count, no. Unless you have lived through a stifling vicious dictatorship it is not an experience to remember. Even the limited emergency in 1975-77 was not pleasant as I can attest. I can't even imagine 42 years of that, let alone gaddafi's 'benign' leadership.

[abhischekcc]

Theo, when the fuc k did the British parasites raise our standard of living?

[Klaus]

How does British raj find mention in a Libya NFZ discussion? Moreover, Q cannot be compared to a imperialist project that artificially created famines killing millions of innocent Indians. Hope you are not trying to say that Brit raj did more good than bad for India, are you?

PS: Please reply in appropriate thread.

[UBanerjee]

One way to avoid getting putting your magnificent family in danger of martyrdom is to avoid turning heavy weaponry and aircraft on people who are tired of living under the jackboot of a cuckoo (these were all imagined also, CIA hallucinations) (gunfire and use of mortars/rockets all hallucinations only)

Sure, retribution may not come and you and yours may live long and happy lives. Maybe it will come.

Before judging Q one has to see his rule from multiple angles.

1. Is it any different from an average Islamic nation?

First of all, yes. Gaddafi is over-the-top even by the standards of Mid-East tinpots. Second of all, what exactly is the point here? That there is more than one foolish tinpot?

2. Did his rule do more common good/bad to his people? Libya is rank 58 in HDI well ahead of BRIC nations. Its percapita GDP is $13K

Do you know how many people live in Libya (6.4 million, far less than that in the early days) and how much oil wealth is in there? You have a nation smaller than Bangalore with the 10th largest proven reserves in the world! Also your per capita GDP measure is not useful because it only reflects average, not the distribution. Gaddafi uses Libya's oil wealth to patronize his favorite tribal groups while leaving out tribes he doesn't like or with whom he has problems. Drastically so in fact. As a result his cronies grow fat while the rest are not so fat. And the not so fat are not very happy about that. 42 years is a long time to wither.

3. Did Q resort to mass violence against his own people before?

Easily, yes. Regular public executions of political dissidents and assassinations.

4. How did west play him for/against Islamic nations?

Gaddafi was a joker in the pack until the Second Gulf War. He has a long history that goes much further than just 5-6 years back. He is neither a pawn of the West nor a rival; he had his own aims of African supremacy. For example he was a great friend of Idi Amin, and kept Amin propped up.

Please.

One way to avoid getting putting your magnificent family in danger of martyrdom is to avoid turning heavy weaponry and aircraft on people who are tired of living under the jackboot of a cuckoo (these were all imagined also, CIA hallucinations) (gunfire and use of mortars/rockets all hallucinations only)

Sure, retribution may not come and you and yours may live long and happy lives. Maybe it will come.

Oh yeah, its none of your f%^&ing business nor mine nor the NATO gangsters' business as to how Libyans live their lives.

And its none of your business what NATO chooses to do, is it now. Since Gaddafi's might makes right over Libya, NATO's might makes greater right. And you can huff and puff all you want, good luck changing that. Try not to be so morally preachy towards me, since "helping civilians" and "NATO gangsters" are both emotionally bullshit slogans I don't give a fig about.

The idea that those who give their lives trying to get something for their country from under a petty tyrant's rule, are turncoats and traitors, is what started this. I find that idea repulsive to truth and sense. The whites are doing it, so the guy on the receiving end is a saint and those whom the whites are helping are turncoats and traitors. Real deep philosophy here. The sort of thinking that has led to Mugabe and Amin and Mao, because they opposed white people the rest didn't matter. However dhimmified India's elite may have been, it's a testament to our civilization that we didn't spawn that.

[UBanerjee]

What is interesting is that this war may end up bringing all of non-Anglo Saxon large economies together - Russia, China, Germany, and possibly India and Brazil as well. IOW, BRICS+Germany.

Interesting times ahead.

A Russo-German rapprochement has been speculated for a long time now.

It is probably the one thing France fears the most. France has been living in fear of this since Germany became a state. But actually this conflict will only bring it about faster, if anything. France does seem to be moving more towards the Anglo orbit and has made a decision?

-------------
The thing is, this war is really cheap for the west, in terms of men and money.Only people getting killed are Libyans. The only country getting trashed is Libya. Hence, they can 'sustain' it for a long time.

But Germany/China *can* bring about an end to this war by enhancing the fighting power of Q's Libyan forces.

Germany can't, China can (and probably will have to make moves if not doing so already; Gaddafi can't keep stocks running forever).