West Asia News and Discussions

[D Roy]

The Saudi-Pak defense treaty was signed on December 14, 1982. Led to the stationing of an armoured Puki brigade at Tabuk. Deployment continued till 1988.

The treaty was revitalized in 2006.

[shyamd]

The Turks are *really* unhappy with the Assad's handling of the protests - Syria is the lynchpin in their plan to economically reintegrate the entire Levant, and through it, much of the Arab world in to their economic space. They have been urging reform without repression.

The Assad regime's tactics were based on an era when you could shoot your own people in droves and suppress every single photo or video coming out of it. That was an era when it was easier to create fear and silence, rather than outrage among your population. With digital media, mobile phones and the internet, its impossible to do these things without the ugly images and sounds appearing everywhere, and when people see them they feel compelled to speak and act.

Its not clear who is the problem - whether its Bashar, or his brother Maher, who controls much of the military and security services and is personally a much scarier guy.

The Syrian army is a conscript force - most soldiers are having real trouble turning their guns on unarmed protestors-there are reports that there have already been refusals by some officers and men in the 5th division. There are only a few units with hardcore vetted loyalists that are willing to do the dirty deed.

As long as the protests keep growing, and they remain unarmed, shooting will only weaken rather than strengthen cohesion within the Army. If soldiers defect and start taking up arms, the regime will stop losing, just like in Libya.

Johann, this is a US/KSA plot to force Bashar to drop hezbollah and US also wants them to drop Iran. although KSA wants a peaceful change of regime, because they are worried jordan may be next and can spread. But looks like they dont mind assad going. GID is in contact with MB guys, US wants to court the MB because their members are believed to be 20 million world wide. 25% of Syrian population. And they have a lot of clandestine cells discretely playing a part in this. MB's call today for elections is a step towards pressurizing Assad.

My friend's (family full of MB members exiled) relative is the head of the MB for Syria. He was playing it down.

Lets see how this plays out.

-------------------------
Bomb in Marrakesh, Morocco. Had food in the same cafe less than a year ago.

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LPakistan is lobbying Riyadh to choose DCNS subs for KSA Navy sub purchase program. Pentagon has other plans and are discussing with riyadh

[Klaus]

CBS News foreign correspondent recalls her sexual assault in Cairo's Tahir Square: Link.

[abhishek_sharma]

Saudi Arabia Moves to Maintain Regime Stability

Mohamed ElBaradei Interview (Video)

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11640

[Johann]

Shyam,

The speed with which the protests are growing is outside anyone's control. It is not a card that can be played or withdrawn from the table in exchange for concessions.

Jordan is like Oman and Morocco. The population is unhappy with conditions, but the ruler has made concessions without opening fire, and so they are going to survive.

As for Syria, no one thought the protests there were going anywhere. It is the regime's overreaction that has brought this down on themselves.

I've watched the transformation within Syrian families that I know. Initially its just the young people, the ones who feel like there's no prospects for them, while their parents remain indifferent or supportive of the regime - then the regime dissapears some of them, and things start to change.

In Deraa it was schoolboys who wrote slogans on walls. When the parents congregated to beg for their release they were attacked with batons. When they actually protested they were fired on.

By the end of this process the entire family has turned against the regime. This is why the protests are *growing* rather than shrinking with every bullet that is fired.

Its growing from the rural areas and small towns and spreading towards the big cities instead of the other way around.

It should be remembered that this is how the Baathists came to power in Syria as well - they were a rural and small town movement.

[ashkrishna]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/29/world ... ss&emc=rss

"Arab Spring" is giving way to something else....

[Venkarl]

During Pre 2003 years...

Syria is Sunni Majority Country with Shias in power
Iraq is Shia Majority Country with Sunnis in power

Both countries' political parties though inimical to each other have had their association with Ba'ath Party circa 1963....now that Ba'athist Party in Iraq is gone with Saddam...is it Assad's turn now? is this all about bringing down Ba'athist Regimes one after other?

I am sorry if I've sounded noobish...trying to catch up.

[D Roy]

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/arti ... e-cold-war

[Johann]

During Pre 2003 years...

Syria is Sunni Majority Country with Shias in power
Iraq is Shia Majority Country with Sunnis in power

Both countries' political parties though inimical to each other have had their association with Ba'ath Party circa 1963....now that Ba'athist Party in Iraq is gone with Saddam...is it Assad's turn now? is this all about bringing down Ba'athist Regimes one after other?

I am sorry if I've sounded noobish...trying to catch up.

Syria is run by the Alawi, who aren't really Shia.

Baathism was popular initially because it was the first ideology to combine Arab nationalism with secularism.

Secularism was attractive because it seemed a way to bridge the divisions not only between religions, but between all the different sects.

The problem was that in each case they were a vehicle not only for dictatorship, but dictatorship by a minority.

Although there are a lot of Sunnis who would like to see a majoritarian rule, the protests can not be reduced to that - there are protests in Latakia which is overwhelmingly Alawi, and in the Kurdish north (Hasaka province). The Kurds in the north have been chanting slogans about Deraa, the Sunni Arab town in the south.

At least for right now protesters from different communities are uniting because they understand they don't stand a chance unless they do so. What happens after Assad (if it comes to that) may be a different story.

The one group that hasn't been involved are the Christians, who have done well under the Alawi Baathists, and are terrified that things will turn out like Iraq. Even in Egypt many young Copts participated as individuals, but the community as a whole stayed out of things.

[shyamd]

Hamas has now left exile in Syria to Qatar! Big news if true. Basically this is a signal to US that Bashar is ready to dump Hezbollah and cronies and form an alliance with the US. Apparently Turkey is now replacing Egypts role in the middle east so has formed a new partnership with the US. While KSA and the GCC (minus Qatar) are doing a lot of independent moves. Qatar as formed very tight ties with the US and is trying to buy protections of some sort. Qatar is funding US operations and so on like in Libya - a bit like what KSA was doing with US in Afghanistan back in the 80s against soviets.

But lets see if GCC sort out Qatari's.

MKB speaks:

Link

Once bitten, twice shy. Russia and China aren’t taking chances anymore. They squarely said ‘nyet’ to the western move on Wednesday to get the UN Security Council condemn the violence in Syria. Their apprehension is that US and its european partners (which now includes Germany as well) might resort to a Libya-like build up by getting a UN SC resolution through that provides an alibi to military intervention. All indications are that on the pattern of Libya, Syrian protestors are getting large-scale support from outside from such diverse sources as Saudi Arabia and Qatar and western intelligence and Israel. Unsurprisingly, Syria has closed its border with Jordan, which has always acted as a cat’s paw for British and US intelligence operations in the Middle East.
China told the Security Council that Syria must be left alone to sort out its internal problems on its own and it “welcomed” Damascus’ moves in this regard such as the lifting of emergency and the pledge for democratic reforms. China also warned that if the turbulence sweeping the Middle East isn’t “addressed properly, they will jeopardize peace and stability and
stability in other regions and underlined that any constructive help from the international community should be within the ambit of the UN Charter.
Russia voiced different concerns. It was much more forthright than China in stating that the Syrian developments didn’t constitute any threat to international security warranting UN SC action. Russia also alluded to the external support to the Syrian protestors. Of course, Syria is a traditional ally of Russia and any western-sponsored “regime change” in Damascus would have far-reaching consequences for Russia’s global strategy. Russia maintains in Syria its only naval base in the Mediterranean . Without the Syrian base, Russian fleet in the Black Sea would get “bottled up”. Syria is also a buyer of Russian weapons. Russia made it clear that it remained supoortive of Assad’s initiatives to ease the tensions.
Curiously, India did some tight-rope walking on Syria. There was a slight “tilt” in favour of Assad with the Indian stance taking note of “armed extremist elements” posing as protestors in Syria. and of the government’s moves for dialogue and reform. Interestingly, Ambassador Hardeep Puri did some plain-speaking about what all this is adding up to - Arab spring and the incohate doctrine of “humanitarian intervention” in the internal affairs of sovereign states. Puri said: “As we deplore violence from any quarter, the Council needs to make clear that it is the responsibility of sovereign states to respond to the aspirations of its people… At the same time, it is for states to decide on the best course of action to maintain internal law and order and to prevent violence. The primary responsibility of the Council in this respect is to urge all sides to abjure violence in any form and to seek a resolution of grievances through peaceful means”.
In short, India dissociated from identifying with the western condemnation of the Syrian government and expressed scepticism about outside intervention. Arguably, there was even a note of advice to the West not to “exacerbate” the tensions. Similar clarity of thinking was also apparent in the statement made by Puri on March 30 on the situation in Cote d’Ivorie. Puri said UN resolutions should not be “made instruments of regime change” and, therefore, the UN forces should not become party to the Ivorian political stalemate.
These thought processes are at marked variance with the approach taken by the US and its european allies. But the Indian stance will be appreciated by the African countries which harbour deep fears over the intentions behind the clamour for western intervention. A good political setting becomes available for India’s forthcoming summit with the African countries scheduled to be held in Addis Ababa next month.

[abhishek_sharma]

Ahistorical Kuwaiti sectarianism

Stop trying to renegotiate the SOFA

Hope Dies Last in Damascus

Think Again: Libya: More than a month after the first bombs fell on Muammar al-Qaddafi's forces, the assumptions that led the United States into the war have mostly been proven wrong -- and a strategy to end it is still nowhere in sight.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... gain_libya

Is Ahmadinejad Islamic Enough for Iran? Why the Iranian president's latest fight with the supreme leader could be his last.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... h_for_iran

Crunch-time for the Syrian regime

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/ ... ian_regime

[Dilbu]

In Shift, Egypt Warms to Iran and Hamas, Israel’s Foes

CAIRO — Egypt is charting a new course in its foreign policy that has already begun shaking up the established order in the Middle East, planning to open the blockaded border with Gaza and normalizing relations with two of Israel and the West’s Islamist foes, Hamas and Iran.

Egyptian officials, emboldened by the revolution and with an eye on coming elections, say that they are moving toward policies that more accurately reflect public opinion. In the process they are seeking to reclaim the influence over the region that waned as their country became a predictable ally of Washington and the Israelis in the years since the 1979 peace treaty with Israel.

The first major display of this new tack was the deal Egypt brokered Wednesday to reconcile the secular Palestinian party Fatah with its rival Hamas. “We are opening a new page,” said Ambassador Menha Bakhoum, spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry. “Egypt is resuming its role that was once abdicated.”

Egypt’s shifts are likely to alter the balance of power in the region, allowing Iran new access to a previously implacable foe and creating distance between itself and Israel, which has been watching the changes with some alarm. “We are troubled by some of the recent actions coming out of Egypt,” said one senior Israeli official, citing a “rapprochement between Iran and Egypt” as well as “an upgrading of the relationship between Egypt and Hamas.”

[Pranav]

Sanity returns Egypt to the Arab fold

By Rami G. Khouri

Sometimes you can almost physically feel the political earth shifting beneath your feet. One of those moments occurred in Cairo a few days ago, when the main Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, signed an Egyptian-brokered reconciliation agreement to reconstitute a single Palestinian government.

This event will be seen in retrospect as a historic turning point in the contemporary history of the Middle East – not so much for what it means for the Palestinians, but more for what it tells us about the return of Egypt to its natural role in regional diplomacy. This is the first tangible sign of the return of sanity and dignity in the affairs of state and diplomacy in Cairo’s foreign policy, after decades of emasculation, subservience and marginalization.

Other signs will follow quickly, including the opening of the Gaza-Rafah crossing, the resumption of normal relations with Iran, rational relations along the Nile Valley, more effective and realistic regional nuclear policies, and greater regional trade and economic complementarities.
......
So was the speedy, almost Pavlovian, comment by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu within hours of the reconciliation accord that Fatah could have peace with Hamas or with Israel, but not with both.

http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011 ... 47269.html

An interesting development, to say the least. We can take it that the Army chief of Egypt is calling the shots these days?

[ramana]

Its realignment in west asia-north africa(WANA). As US plumps for Turkey, Egypt reaches out to Arab world.

[Pranav]

Its realignment in west asia-north africa(WANA). As US plumps for Turkey, Egypt reaches out to Arab world.

One doubts that the AKP-led Turkey would be particularly cooperative.

[shyamd]

^^ he wasn't initially. But protests died down soon after.

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PS. I really doubt qatar will survive. Expect coup sirens blaring.

[Pranav]

Turkey-US relations seem to be mixed at best:

Turkey asks US to support Palestinian unity - http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php? ... 2011-04-29

US warns Turkey against financial transactions with Iran - http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/ ... -with-Iran

but on the other hand

Turkey, US intelligence-sharing on Mideast turmoil revealed - http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php? ... 2011-04-26

Shyamd garu, who's calling the shots in Egypt these days?

[shyamd]

Turkey - is on US side. Its clear.

Egypt - I think they are trying to be independent. They are sending out the head of the egyptian intel to build relations with Iran and a few others. The military is in control for the moment, thats for sure. Washington can sway them if they ahve to, so can GCC.
-------------

Interesting take on the Al Sudais visit:

The Representatives of majority sunni muslims ,Raza Academy,All India Ulema Mashiakh Board,MSO of India ,Jamat Raza e Mustafa etc have demanded clarification from the Imam of Wahabi Saltanat to express his opinion on the treaty made between Indian Muslim leaders and between saudi Kingdon in 1925 .In which Saudi king Abdul Azeez had Promised to gave back the control of Haramain Sharaifain i.e of Makkah,Madina and Taif (Hijaz ) to the united body of world muslim leaders and that they will return to Najd territory after the establishment of Peace but this treaty has not been followed and performed till now so Muhmaad Saeed Noori of Raza Academy,Maulana Yaseen Akhtar Misbahi of Darul qalam Delhi,Muhamad Ahmed Naeemi of AIUMB,Shahnawaz warsi of MSO have asked Imam to convey the message of Indian Muslims to Saudi king Abdullah.

We also support the views expressed by Mohtarma Sadia Dehlavi in Times of India (below) and would like to tell that Imam does not represents the Sunni Muslims of the world and he is not our leader.

The Wahabi Deobandi nexus to popularize Wahabi extremist Ideology in Indian Subcontinent condemned and it has become clear now that Deoband represents Wahabi Ideology.Indian Muslims have been Sufism followers from the starting of Islam in India and does not support these extremist Ideologies at all.we expressed grave concerns over the false Propaganda run by Urdu Media to show the Imam as most revered personality of Islamic world”.said the statement.

Keeping the inclusive faith

24 Mar, 2011 [ Sadia Dehlvi ]
Imam Al Sudais’s India visit to lecture at the Deoband seminary is sending some sections of the Muslim community into overdrive. I received a card from the India Islamic Cultural Centre (IICC) in Delhi to attend an address by ‘His Holiness’, Imam-e-Haram, Dr Sheikh Abdul Rahman Al Sudais, presently imam of the mosque in Mecca. The accompanying letter details the imam’s achievements including his educational degrees in sharia law. In 2005, he received ‘The Islamic Personality of the Year’ award and stood nominated for the Dubai International Quran Award, which he accepted.

The ‘His Holiness’ came as a jolt, for no such prefixes have ever been added to Prophet Muhammad’s name or that of his companions, who rank the highest in Muslim piety. As one devoted to Islam, i believe using the Quran to name an award belittles the sanctity of God’s word and borders on blasphemy. Legitimising such an award by its acceptance seems a worse action. The early history of Islam contains no examples of spiritual or religious leaders accepting state or private awards. On the contrary, sharia and prophetic traditions frown upon those who seek or allow public adulation, for all righteous deeds are for God alone.

The Deoband leadership has requested that Al Sudais not be frisked during his visit to Parliament. Due respect must be accorded to the visiting imam, because he leads the prayers at the Kaabah. This reverence flows from ‘where’ the prayers are led and not because of ‘who’ the imam is. To quote Arshad Madani of the Jamiat-e-Ulama-e-Hind, “Sheikh Al Sudais is the highest religious leader of the Muslims”. This is misleading because Al Sudais merely represents the highest-ranking sacred space. The worldwide Muslim majority does not subscribe to the radical Wahhabi ideology propagated by Saudi clerics.

This political, narrow, legalistic and literalist interpretation of Islam emerged from the desert wastelands of Najd in Saudi Arabia from among the followers of the Bedouin Abdul Wahhab, an 18th century self-claimed reformist. The trajectory of the Wahhabi movement is rooted in violence, legitimising jihad as an armed conflict to kill fellow Muslims in disagreement with their vision of Islam by declaring them kafirs, infidels. Related to the ruling family through matrimonial alliances, Abdul Wahhab’s family continues to control the ministry of religion, quashing many reforms desired by the political leadership, particularly by the present moderate King Abdullah.

The Wahhabis, who call themselves ‘Salafis’, have a limited following in the subcontinent. It includes the Deoband seminary, Tablighi Jamaat, Ahle Hadith and the Jamaat-e-Islami in Pakistan. Together, they constitute not more than 15 to 20% of the total population. Unfortunately, the government and the public fall prey to media-driven stereotypes. The perceptions of these factions representing majority Muslim opinion are baseless. Muslims are not monolithic communities but adhere to varied interpretations of Islam. In India and Pakistan, the Ahle Sunnat wal Jamaat represented by the Barelvi creed has the largest following.

Saudi clerics, including Al Sudais, face international criticism for inciting passions against the Barelvis, Shias, other Muslim minorities and non-Muslims. The Saudi state outsources its Wahhabi ideology by spending billions of dollars in patronising the building and running of mosques, madrassas, journals and cleric training programmes. It remains the fountainhead of the extremism infiltrating Muslim communities, tearing their local cultures apart. The bombing of dargahs and Shia mosques in Pakistan is one such manifestation.

The Saudi state has robbed all Muslims in the world of their legitimate cultural, historical and spiritual legacy, both in the physical and spiritual realm. In 1925, despite global outrage, all mausoleums including those of the Prophet’s family at Jannat-ul Maali and Jannat-ul Baqi, the sacred graveyards of Mecca and Medina, were demolished. Once reflecting Islamic glory and heritage, the bulldozed compounds are now typical Wahhabi burial grounds with rows of featureless unmarked graves. Several other historical sites continue to be obliterated.

Throughout history, Sufis and their disciples from different parts of the globe inhabited Mecca and Medina, the first centres of spiritual Islam. Now, the constant patrolling by the mutawwah, the religious police, ensures that pilgrims do not participate in collective spiritual gatherings. Forced to follow Wahhabi practices, devotees in Medina are not allowed to face the Prophet’s chamber in supplication. Women face severe restrictions of time and space at the sacred mosques. It is decreed sinful and therefore criminal to write, read, sing or listen to ‘naat’, poetic praise, of the Prophet. Enforcements have washed away these traditions commonplace during Prophet Muhammad’s life. Thirty-five among the Prophet’s poet companions composed ‘naat’, Hassan ibn Thabit being his favourite.

The aims and objective of the IICC is to preserve and promote the composite and inclusive cultural traditions of Indian Muslims. Since its inception, the Centre has been trying to decode which cultural activities are sharia compliant and those that are not. Therefore, it is ironic and worrying that the IICC is one of the venues for the imam’s address. I hope Al Sudais’s discourse triggers a genuine and long overdue intra-faith dialogue amongst Indian Muslims as to what the rightful traditions of Islam are.

( The writer is a commentator and an author.)
Unwelcome in India
Saturday, 26 March 2011 08:11

Point of View: Guest Editorial By Dr. Irfaan Al -Alawi

by Irfan Al-Alawi – 24th March 2011

http://www.lapidomedia.com/supreme-lead ... e-in-india

In a shocking display of heedlessness about the dangers of radical Islam, India has allowed the hate-mongering Saudi imam and Friday preacher at the Grand Mosque (Haram) in Mecca, Abdur-Rahman Al-Sudais, to schedule a journey to the country beginning Friday, 25 March.

Al-Sudais, a prominent exponent of the hard-core Wahhabi ideology, will visit the extremist centre at Darul Uloom Deoband in U.P. Al-Sudais is then planning trips to New Delhi, including a dinner in his honour in the annexe of the Indian parliament, and to Old Delhi, preaching and leading prayer in both cities.

Citizens of India, Muslim as well as non-Muslim, should have no illusions about the intent of Al-Sudais’ tour. He represents the Wahhabi apparatus that holds Muslims and non-Muslims under Saudi rule in a fatal grip of intimidation and enforced conformity, and its alliance with the Deobandi element and the deviant doctrines that produced the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban.

When the leading Saudi Wahhabi visits Darul Uloom Deoband, a pact between inspirers of terrorism is affirmed and, in effect, a summit between apologists for bloodshed is advertised. Large numbers of Deobandi adherents are expected to flock to the event, clogging roads and otherwise disrupting life in U.P., which has previously suffered conflict between fundamentalist and traditionalist Muslims.

The arrival of Al-Sudais as the first-ever imam of the Haram to come to India is intended unarguably to impress Indian Muslims with the alleged stability of Saudi Wahhabism and the firmness of its solidarity with Deobandism.

The ‘moderate’ Jamiat Ulama-i-Hind (JUH) has requested that when he goes to the parliament, Al-Sudais be spared a security examination. In an absurd claim, Al-Sudais has been designated by JUH as the supreme world authority for Sunni believers and therefore above the supposed indignity of a security check.

But every aspect of Al-Sudais and his career bespeak his distance from ordinary Muslims: Al-Sudais will reportedly land at Darul Uloom in a helicopter. The authority of this upstart rests upon usurpation of beloved Mecca and backing for Saudi injustices against Islam, the people of the Arabian peninsula, and the world.

A security examination for explosives would not, one must admit, detect the most destructive product of Al-Sudais and his peers: the Wahhabism he learned at the Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University in Riyadh, known to Saudis as ‘the terrorist factory’.

JUH has alleged that Al-Sudais will appear in India as an acolyte of interreligious harmony, but JUH leader Arshad Madani, who arranged invitation of the Saudi cleric, boasted that Al-Sudais would be shown how Wahhabi, Deobandi, and other retrograde interpretations of Islam are ‘flourishing’ in the country.

India, along with Pakistan and Bangladesh, and the South Asian Muslim communities in the UK and U.S., have been targeted by Wahhabis and Deobandis for both recruitment to and commission of terrorism.

Backrgound:

Al-Sudais has been barred from Canada and criticised by Saudi officials for his hateful commentaries. Credibility about his claims of inter-faith dialogue remain questionable so long as he represents the official Wahhabi clerics in the Saudi kingdom.

One one side, Al-Sudais serves a legacy of prejudicial and narrow-minded actions by the Wahhabi ulema. The latter shield the radicals in the Saudi regime who are continuing two centuries’ recent history of vandalism against the Islamic heritage of Arabia, and committing other offences against the conscience and consciousness of the Islamic umma.

With the complicity of Al-Sudais, Wahhabi hard-liners seek new restrictions on the conduct of the hajj pilgrimage to Mecca, including proposals for segregation and compulsory face-covering of women during hajj, that had never before been prevalent within the Islamic umma.

In addition, Al-Sudais supports the anti-Islamic, anti-historical, and anti-cultural plan for the transformation of Mecca, the holiest city of the Muslims, into a cluster of Las Vegas-style high-rise buildings and similar structures.

These gigantic, architecturally inferior projects will dwarf and belittle the sanctity of the Haram and the Ka’bah, which Al-Sudais is supposed to administer. Instead, he participates in selling it off, or destroying it, bit by bit. Such are the perverse ways of the Wahhabis.

Parallel with them, the Deobandi clerics enable terrorist attacks against Sufi shrines in Pakistan and India, the penetration of Bangladesh by radicals, and aggression against traditional Muslims in U.P. They have not yet committed atrocities and demolition on the scale of the Wahhabis, because the Deobandis only exercise limited power.

But accommodation of either form of violent fundamentalism will lead inexorably to more chaos and cruelty. The Taliban destruction of the Buddhist monuments at Bamiyan in Afghanistan represented an imitation of Saudi-Wahhabi devastation in Mecca, Medina, and other peninsular cities.

For India to complacently allow Al-Sudais to meet and conspire with the Deobandi leadership strikes a serious blow against moderate Muslims, including activists for social reform in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries.

It also harms those in South Asia endeavouring to build barriers against the tsunami of radical exhortation, financing, enlistment, and, finally violence, that is sweeping the subcontinent.

India has already had enough bitter experience with Wahhabism. Its political and religious leaders should say no to Al-Sudais, and send him back to the Saudi kingdom without delay.

[Pranav]

Turkey - is on US side. Its clear.

Why is it so clear? The AKP folks have been struggling with the west-supported elements in their military for a long time. And what about the recent flotilla to Gaza, and Erdogan's outrage against Op Cast Lead?

[ramana]

You blink you lose. All that you say was before the Egyptian rising.

[Pranav]

You blink you lose. All that you say was before the Egyptian rising.

OK, but what are the indications that things have changed so drastically as regards the AKP?

[devesh]

it might be that the external situation has given Turkey the right opportunity. they might have their internal issues but things outside are looking too juicy for them to ignore. and Turkey definitely has that impulse in its history.

[Dilbu]

Has Egypt changed overnight from a Munna to someone who should be kept a watch on for unkil? I feel so.

[shyamd]

Why is it so clear? The AKP folks have been struggling with the west-supported elements in their military for a long time. And what about the recent flotilla to Gaza, and Erdogan's outrage against Op Cast Lead?

Quietly they seem to have dropped further flotilla's. Things have changed if reports are to be believed.

[Pranav]

Why is it so clear? The AKP folks have been struggling with the west-supported elements in their military for a long time. And what about the recent flotilla to Gaza, and Erdogan's outrage against Op Cast Lead?

Quietly they seem to have dropped further flotilla's. Things have changed if reports are to be believed.

Maybe, let's see. But I think the bitterness between the Muslims and the Donmeh / Sabbatean elites is too great. There is a discussion of the issues involved in two articles by Prof Avram Ehrlich here: http://www.avrumehrlich.net/sabbatean.htm .

About Prof Ehrlich - http://www.avrumehrlich.net/briefprofile.htm

[Singha]

one of gadhafi's sons Saif and three grandchildren have been killed in NATO airstrikes on his compound. NATO has also rejected any negotiation offer "until the regime ceases attacks on civilians" aka "until the rebels march to tripoli and fly their flag on gadhafi compound"

methinks its a fight to the finish now unless the boss man himself is killed by a airstrike somewhere.

[ramana]

Is this the same Saif as the LSE graduate and heir apparent?

[AKalam]

ramana ji, Saif al-Arab who got killed was the youngest son, around 29, went to school in Germany. Sail Al-Islam is the famous one who went to LSE:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saif_al-Arab_al-Gaddafi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saif_al-Islam_Gaddafi

[shyamd]

I think my first assessment was correct. This move is to enable pull out ofAfghanistan. They want to free up to focus on the ME. Look at Hamas/Fatah reconciliation, Syria & Egypt - MB, Free Libya, GCC integration. So Basically this sets up for another clash against Israel at some point in the near future. It makes sense because the US can intervene to support Israel should the need arise.

All this sounds like a CIA plan that has just gone way more than intended.

And before you know it a senator already says OBL kill reaffirms pull out plans. They will now restation troops in the MENA/WANA theatre of warfare.

[Johann]

ShyamD

The Arab Spring is about as much of a CIA plan as the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union was.

America's main security challenges are *not* in the Mediterranean - although they may assist the EU and Israel because of alliance obligations. The brief moment of Neocon eagerness to pre-emptively fight Israel's battles passed five years ago.

The main challenges are in the Western Indian Ocean - Iran, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, a mix of rogue states and failed states. Its also where global energy prices are still set in terms of production.

The only condition under which the US could leave Af-Pak is if the Pakistanis forced full relocation of the Global Jihad to places like Somalia and Yemen.

The Pakistanis have forced partial relocations before, for example under Benazir in 1993 when many had to leave for Sudan. They were back by 1996 when Sudan came under US pressure.

[RajeshA]

shyamd ji,

hoping to get your thoughts on the following:

After Operation Geronimo, it has become clear that PA/ISI was giving stately treatment to Osama bin Laden in a safe house!

Did the Saudis really know about the extent of PA/ISI support to Al Qaeda and to Osama bin Laden personally? Would the Saudi Royal Family have approved of it? Would there be some sort of feelings of betrayal on the part of the Sauds? Could they consider taking away their financial support of Pakistan or to reconsider the wisdom of involving Pakistan in the security of the Gulf? Would the Pakistanis still be considered trustworthy by them?

[UBanerjee]

Would the Pakistanis still be considered trustworthy by them?

It's not a question of trustworthiness with Pakistan. The word has no meaning whatsoever, I think anyone as shrewd as the Saudis are fully aware of this.

[Klaus]

^^^ 3 and a half friends has been cut down to 1 and a half friends onlee, Japan is too occupied with its inward looking at the present to be a half friend, so that leaves only tarrel and deepel friend as the onlee fliend of TSP!

[Atri]

^^^ 3 and a half friends has been cut down to 1 and a half friends onlee, Japan is too occupied with its inward looking at the present to be a half friend, so that leaves only tarrel and deepel friend as the onlee fliend of TSP!

are you sure about that?

[brihaspati]

shyamd ji,

hoping to get your thoughts on the following:

After Operation Geronimo, it has become clear that PA/ISI was giving stately treatment to Osama bin Laden in a safe house!

Did the Saudis really know about the extent of PA/ISI support to Al Qaeda and to Osama bin Laden personally? Would the Saudi Royal Family have approved of it? Would there be some sort of feelings of betrayal on the part of the Sauds? Could they consider taking away their financial support of Pakistan or to reconsider the wisdom of involving Pakistan in the security of the Gulf? Would the Pakistanis still be considered trustworthy by them?

Why do you think the Royals did not know about this?

[shyamd]

shyamd ji,

hoping to get your thoughts on the following:

After Operation Geronimo, it has become clear that PA/ISI was giving stately treatment to Osama bin Laden in a safe house!

Did the Saudis really know about the extent of PA/ISI support to Al Qaeda and to Osama bin Laden personally? Would the Saudi Royal Family have approved of it? Would there be some sort of feelings of betrayal on the part of the Sauds? Could they consider taking away their financial support of Pakistan or to reconsider the wisdom of involving Pakistan in the security of the Gulf? Would the Pakistanis still be considered trustworthy by them?

Imo Yes they were aware, Unkil/ISAF was clearly aware for a while. Family sources would have passed on the info to KSA royals anyway.

KSA wouldn't mind I don't think. But fact is OBL was used as an asset, he was speaking to afghan warlords etc. No they will not reconsider involving security of TSPA in GCC. OBL is nothing, the GCC has been mum over ISI allowing transfer of nuke info via AQK to Tehran. Don't you think that poses a bigger threat to KSA? KSA isn't afraid of the extremists, but it can do without them. Please my blog on this very subject.

[shyamd]

ShyamD

The Arab Spring is about as much of a CIA plan as the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union was.

America's main security challenges are *not* in the Mediterranean - although they may assist the EU and Israel because of alliance obligations. The brief moment of Neocon eagerness to pre-emptively fight Israel's battles passed five years ago.

The main challenges are in the Western Indian Ocean - Iran, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, a mix of rogue states and failed states. Its also where global energy prices are still set in terms of production.

The only condition under which the US could leave Af-Pak is if the Pakistanis forced full relocation of the Global Jihad to places like Somalia and Yemen.

The Pakistanis have forced partial relocations before, for example under Benazir in 1993 when many had to leave for Sudan. They were back by 1996 when Sudan came under US pressure.

Johannji, I think you need to be briefed on what actually took place, to know what I mean about the US being involved indirectly/directly in this.

[Johann]

Shyam,

Please read what I said carefully.

The CIA was involved in providing discreet support to Solidarity in Poland - but they didn't create the movement, nor create the Polish public response to it. They could never be sure at any point exactly what was going to happen - whether the movement would grow or fail, whether state repression would work or fail, whether the aging poliburos in Warsaw or Moscow would hold their nerve or not. The final collapse in all of these systems came as a shock.

America recognised a powerful social movement that shared a common enemy, and did its best to ally with and support it.

It is important to understand that there is a global network of liberals who operate beyond any single government's influence.

A few weeks I met by chance with one of the US academics who introduced the activists of the 6th of April Movement (the key Egyptian group that launched the protests) to the Serbian Opter movement and the CANVAS institute in Belgrade. He is a lefty, an ardent anti-Zionist, utterly opposed to US foreign policy in the Middle East. He is someone who spent his career studying Mahatma Gandhi and martin Luther King's approach to strategic non-violence. That is the link that ensured that people in Tahrir Square had translated copies of Gene Sharp's books.

To make an analogy, its like the networks of radical Marxists that sprang up around the world in the 1960s and 1970s. The Soviets and the Cubans could try to influence them, but they couldn't control them.

The same Marxist intellectual who criticised US attempts to overthrow Castro might well condemn the Soviet invasion of Prague in 1968, or on his own initiative share the writings of Mao, Che and Debray with what he saw as a promising movement.

We live in a world of top down, bottom up and horizontal actions. Its the easy way out (and the Middle Eastern tendency) to see everything as top down. Those top down visions are *exactly* why the rulers are so out of touch with their populations. Much like western establishments with their youth bulge in 1968.

Honestly its a bit racist to imagine that Poland could produce Walesas, and the Czechs could produce Havels, but the Arabs couldnt produce a generation of activists capable and willing of leading a political revolution against the police states they lived in.

[brihaspati]

Johann ji,
the problem is that most people are not exposed to the continuous cycle of dissent and its various expressions in the Arab world. Especially whenever the younger sections get educated and has access to ideas of the wider "radical/anti-current-establishment" thought process that exists at all periods. The actual incidents or processes have been carefully suppressed and kept away from analysis - so people think that they never existed.

It suited the various colonial powers and their allies to wipe out the traces of "resistance", and strengthen the purely theological line. So now people think that all these are happening without precedence, roots, and therefore must be "externally" sponsored.

[shyamd]

Johann, fair point, they didn't create it but they aided and abetted it in some ways. It would take me ages to explain it - let the news come out itself.

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USA has a new base in Morocco. They are training Moroccans on how to use Predators. So far USAF personnel are quietly being moved in while the base is getting renovated.

p-------------------------
PRC offered subs to the GCC. I presume with SLBM capability. AK better come up with something.

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Antony to visit Saudi Arabia and Qatar

IANS/New Delhi

Defence Minister A K Antony will embark on a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar from Saturday seeking to bolster bilateral military ties with the two nations, which enjoy close ties with Pakistan.
During the visit to Riyadh and Doha, Antony will discuss several aspects of bilateral relations with the two countries, with the fight against global terror likely to be high on the agenda, defence ministry officials said yesterday.
The defence minister’s visit to Saudi Arabia comes a year after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s trip to the kingdom when the two sides inked 10 important agreements, including a defence pact. The prime minister’s visit was the first by an Indian head of government since Indira Gandhi’s in 1982.
The two sides also have a counter-terrorism co-operation in place and Antony’s visit, coming days after the killing of Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden in Pakistan is sure to focus on eliminating all terror groups by choking their funding channels, an issue that has caught the world’s attention in recent years.
India has made significant inroads in both Saudi Arabia and Qatar over the last several years.
There is also growing interaction between the militaries of India and the two countries with joint training and assistance in the development of training infrastructure.
During the visit, India is also expected to flag the anti-piracy efforts of world navies in the Gulf of Aden and on how to deal with pirates caught by its navy on the high seas.
The Indian Navy, which has been present in the Gulf of Aden on anti-piracy patrols since October 2008, has frequently sent its warships to dock at ports in the region.