News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 May 2011 21:09

shiv wrote:Or is this just and example of misplaced MUTU?

Actually a well placed MUTU would be on the same lines as well.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 May 2011 21:11

Early action post OBL:

kmkraoind wrote:Two Al Qaeda leaders killed by 'U.S. drone strike' in Yemen four days after huge intelligence haul from Bin Laden's lair - Dailymail.co.uk

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 06 May 2011 21:14

Gurus, one question..
When we are testing a new missile/rocket we are expected to inform other countries in the neighborhood just to ensure no surprises in case of a misfiring/failure etc. When unkil feared that the pakis could suspect an indian raid and attack India during the mission, isnt it obligatory that he inform us in advance? Atleast apologize for putting an entirely neutral nation at risk? no?
Why isnt India protesting at this? We are to silently become victims of a crossfire and unkil didnt care. Does india count for anything in unkil's scheme of things?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 06 May 2011 21:16

ramana wrote:Shiv, Need your help. I need a five to ten points summary of what is Pakistan. Need that as soon as you can for "education" purposes.

Thanks,

ramana

Heck ramana - that's not easy. Am about to retire for the night. Will null over it and post first thing in the morning

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 May 2011 21:20

shiv wrote:Personally I find it difficult to believe that the Pakis "gave up" bin Laden.

What have they got for it? Ridicule, suspicion and contempt. Recent videos of the corpse kamandu's meeting show all of them looking more morose than I have ever seen them. The fact that it was a risky mission (landing in that compound in pitch darkness) is indicated by the helo crash. And why send (and risk exposing) their latest helo. They could have sent the usual Blackhawks. Far too many holes in that theory. Any further theories built up on the basis of that will be resting on this very shaky foundation.

Of course it may be said that good things are in store for them in future. But the good things would have come anyway for cooperating. Why put them through this insult? The Pakis in view had absolutely no intention of giving up Osama on the day he was taken.

I guess we should think form what they would not get if they did not give up OBL. It was a personal agenda for Obama to end OBL and he is adamant and he is pegging all goodies to OBL delivery. TSP was hesitant but they wanted US take him out and create a perception that TSP has no role.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 May 2011 21:32

shiv, Thanks, weekend will do.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 May 2011 21:34

sandeepA, The US envoy Marc Grossman, repalcement for Holbrooke, per some new report, suggested to MMS he postpone his Kabul trip scheduled for the month end ie the very weekend. We can infer what we want form that.

Nesoj · Post by **Nesoj** » 06 May 2011 21:36

Gus wrote:
Nesoj wrote:I have a copy - want me to post it here or mail it to you ?
put that in a permanent place in the web and link it? so we can use it again and again...

like where 'permanent place in the web' ????? I don't have a web site of my own

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 06 May 2011 21:36

SwamyG wrote:RamaY:
UK and USA have shown short-term thinking enough, but it is very difficult to believe they or anyone would even dream about controlling a large territory that has Afghanistan, Pakistan, J&K and Punjab is nuts. The combined territory is larger than Iran and SA. And all for what? Control India? The consensus is that India is "nobody" and gets no respect. All the powerful entities think about China, Russia and CA regions first and foremost. Indian Subcontinent is an after thought. China has Tibet and Himalayas as a buffer between this entity. Russia has the CA regions as a buffer. Only Iran has an immediate danger.

Something does not fit in this scenario.

SwamyG garu.

No one said Afghanistan, Pakistan, JK, Punjab, BD, Mughalistan etc will become one nation. When push comes to shove, even current Pakistan can be split into 5 states. But all these pieces remain Islamic in nature and be members of a current or future Islamic Union like AKalamji mentioned.

If you remember the discussions on hot-air thread, Akalamji felt that even after 1971, BD prefer to be part of an Islamic bloc (a creation of maximum 1300 years) instead of an Indic bloc (that is >5000 years old). That is the pull of ideology and identification. For gods sake majority of sub-continentals are Muslims by birth; not by knowledge (or realization).

It doesn't matter if it is a sinister ploy by UK or USA or PRC or Mullah Omar. What matters are the outcomes and consequences.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 May 2011 21:42

Nesoj wrote:
Gus wrote:
="Nesoj"

I have a copy - want me to post it here or mail it to you ?

----------

put that in a permanent place in the web and link it? so we can use it again and again...
like where 'permanent place in the web' ????? I don't have a web site of my own

Put it here:

BR Ref material Thread in GDF

PS: Its already there!!!!

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 06 May 2011 21:54

SandeepA wrote: Why isnt India protesting at this? We are to silently become victims of a crossfire and unkil didnt care. Does india count for anything in unkil's scheme of things?

There is a lot which is not public at this stage. Moreover, launching spec-ops with combat personnel is different from launching missiles. I think it is better that the story remain this way without anyone being the wiser, initiative can be often fleeting!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 May 2011 22:07

Some news reports:

BBC:

Pakistan's army ridiculed after Bin Laden raid

Pak Tribune:

Heads must role:Chaudhry Nisar

Must be a Badmash company guy!

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 06 May 2011 22:10

Dharamputra RD's post is excellent summary of Indian's 80/90s prevails and all the odds arrayed against Her by the adversaries. RAO did his job but Indians got boost in self confidenceonly in ABV's time and there have been no looking back starting from 2001 onward.
OBL's death have given deadly blow to Pakjabi Muslaman's ambition and dream of being controlling force in our part of the world. Fed with British garbage, They lived on this hope since 47 and now the beginning of end is staring right in their eyes. Poaks have lost last 2 decades of peace and development and OBL"s departure to do Hoor Jeehad will waste this and most probably next decade. At this stage Poak will be twice in the numbers and half the food to eat, 1/3 of clothes to wear and 1/10 od water to drink and wash. Next thing to watch is to see the flight of capital in next couple of years.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 06 May 2011 22:13

ISI DG Pasha will resign.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 May 2011 22:20

So first sacrificial Bakra!

So which side is this offering? US or Jihadis?

It won't stop till Kiyani goes.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 06 May 2011 22:20

shiv wrote:Personally I find it difficult to believe that the Pakis "gave up" bin Laden.

They did not give, they were forced to give. US had zeroed in around 10-12 months back. They must have carried out many dozens of dry runs of the mission simulating the mansion. They informed and warned TSPA just couple of hours before or a day, ensured the secured path and got OBL as exactly as planned. TSPA watched helplessly.

But as you rightly said I am just speculating.

Another theory. ISI is professional as much as an evil it is. It is possible that ISI got a sniff of what US is looking. And US knew that ISI knew. US summoned pasha to sternly warn not to repeat TORA BORA. Demanded status quo of the mansion and the inhabitants. They ordered pasha and kiyani to keep 2-3 paths clear from then on until the judgment day.

again speculating...

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 06 May 2011 22:20

Jaspreet wrote:RD,
I don't know whether we can conclusively say that OBL was apathetic on Kashmir. Robert Fisk, The Independent's ME correspondent, as interviewed on CBC (Canada) Radio 1 had different thoughts on it.

He also said that Pakistan might have got a promise on Kashmir for their cooperation in this raid.

Watch the interview here.

Goodness! Could this be possible? And if so, how would this scenario be accomplished?
- Trojan horse/ Manchurian candidate in Indian political set-up
- Ramp up of terrorism
- et al

Could the recent interlocuter statements have anything to do with this?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 06 May 2011 22:21

Rangudu wrote:ISI DG Pasha will resign.

for failing to protect osama.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 06 May 2011 22:22

ramana wrote:So first sacrificial Bakra!

So which side is this offering? US or Jihadis?

It won't stop till Kiyani goes.

See my post on the TSP thread. It is for the US.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 06 May 2011 22:22

@Rudradev, excellent summary. May I share the post outside?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 May 2011 22:29

For completeness....

Rangudu wrote:One US contact of mine has said that Kayani has agreed to force Pasha to resign as ISI DG and appoint a candidate acceptable to US as his replacement.

I think its related to the "One Army" comment by Kiayani. He knows the raid has opened a window on the fissures inside TSP which Nightwatch alludes to and which US can exploit if he doesn't offer a bakra /scape goat for US for Senators etc.

However his doing so shows his weakness and he will have to offer something for local consumption too.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 06 May 2011 22:35

ramana
Is it possible that there was something more valuable to US other than Osama in that compound? If it is, what could it be?
Altair

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 06 May 2011 22:39

Altair wrote:ramana
Is it possible that there was something more valuable to US other than Osama in that compound? If it is, what could it be?
Altair

Pictures of US diplomates eating samosas (made by Paki diplomats) with Osama and his honchos

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 06 May 2011 22:44

ISI DG Pasha is in Washington today, apparently!

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 06 May 2011 22:44

Uncle found lot of phone numbers in that compound..Right now TSPA & eye-s-eye is worried #$%$

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 06 May 2011 22:47

pasha will ask for canadian vija or he may be here looking for property to settle down in retirement.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 06 May 2011 22:50

all those dhoti shivering about cashmere... what makes anyone think that any indian pm has the power to simply give away kashmir?
what deal could possibly be done where one party doesnt participate?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 May 2011 22:52

amdavadi wrote:Uncle found lot of phone numbers in that compound..Right now TSPA & eye-s-eye is worried #$%$

Post 911 they found as much as they can from investigations in bank accounts, afghan caves etc. It will be always thrilling to read but it was followed by Kunduz. That is the level of relationship between US and TSP.

Yeah if some real gorund action happens against TSP then we can admire Obama otherwise it is all chai-biskoot.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 06 May 2011 23:00

Wow! was this ever posted here before: (April 25 article from cbsnews)
U.S. listed Pakistan spy agency as terror group

ISLAMABAD - Guantanamo Bay authorities named Pakistan's main intelligence agency a terrorist organization along with Hamas and other international militant networks, according to leaked documents likely to damage already rocky relations between the spy body and the CIA.

The 2007 documents from the Guantanamo Bay prison were part of a batch of classified material released by the Wikileaks website and included interrogation summaries from more than 700 detainees.

Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency declined to comment Monday, but it has consistently denied any ongoing links with Islamist militants

Latest WikiLeaks target: Guantanamo Bay
Special report: WikiLeaks
Leaked files reveal U.S. view of Gitmo detainees

The ISI is part of a list that includes more than 60 international militant networks, as well as Iran's intelligence services, and is part of the guidelines for interrogators at Guantanamo. It says the groups are "terrorist" entities or associations and say detainees linked to them "may have provided support to al Qaeda and the Taliban, or engaged in hostilities against U.S. and coalition forces."

The CIA and the ISI have worked closely together since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks to hunt down al Qaeda operatives sheltering in Pakistan. But U.S. officials have often voiced suspicions that elements of the ISI were either linked to or supporting militants even as the two countries publicly talked of their alliance in the campaign against extremism.

Relations between the two agencies hit a new low this year after an American CIA contractor shot and killed two Pakistanis he claimed were robbing him. Since then, the ISI has complained about American drones strikes along the Afghan border and the alleged existence of scores of CIA agents in the country without its knowledge.

In a rare public accusation last week, Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff, said the ISI had continued links to the powerful network of an Afghan warlord that has bases in a northwestern tribal region of Pakistan. Hours later, Pakistan's army chief rejected what he called "negative propaganda" by the United States.

Allegations of links between the ISI and Islamist militants date back to the 1980s, when Pakistan — along with the United States — was supporting the "Afghan Jihad" against the Soviet occupation in neighboring Afghanistan. These days, many analysts say the country wants to keep the militant commanders as potential allies in Afghanistan once the Americans withdraw.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 May 2011 23:02

AmberG, Thats old hat. Its based on a handy interrogation sheet(Matrix of Connections) which was used to query the detainees there.

Vinod Ji · Post by **Vinod Ji** » 06 May 2011 23:05

Rangudu wrote:ISI DG Pasha will resign.

Wonder if Kayani will survive?

I really wish N.S. was in power.I think he would have liked /could have brought defense forces under full civilian control.

Imran Khan's promotion by establishment is now on hold?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 06 May 2011 23:28

ramana wrote:For completeness....

Rangudu wrote:One US contact of mine has said that Kayani has agreed to force Pasha to resign as ISI DG and appoint a candidate acceptable to US as his replacement.

I think its related to the "One Army" comment by Kiayani. He knows the raid has opened a window on the fissures inside TSP which Nightwatch alludes to and which US can exploit if he doesn't offer a bakra /scape goat for US for Senators etc.

However his doing so shows his weakness and he will have to offer something for local consumption too.

I can confirm, I have heard very similar things. Apparently there are 3 groups within the ISI. Some sources are saying it is possible that the US was working with 1 on the OBL project. But I am confident Pasha/Kiyani were in on the OBL capture.

Rudradevji, That was easily the best history lesson/analysis. And fits exactly how I have seen things, but your knowledge on OBL is excellent and I've learnt a lot from it. Thank you.

Whats next for Pakistan?
Kiyani and his TSPA is under huge pressure. US is "raping" pakistan via drone strikes, spec ops missions. TTP + AQ allies + Afghan Taleban are now at war with TSPA. Domestic - Civvie pressure of national shame of allowing loss of "sovereignity" on this OBL raid. Ouch! Everyone is calling into question TSPA. What do you think Baloch liberation army etc are going to do when they see all this?

US wants to salvage the status quo of Pakistan's position as described by Shri Rudradev ji. Witness the statements of the Obama administration officials with respect to Chicago trial - they want to keep ISI role quiet still - which shows the US still wants Pakistan.

So, if I was a chairman of a business - RYK Sweet Mart and people found out about my dodgy jalebi's -> my reputation is being smashed. What would I do? I'd close my shop and put a new sign saying "Under New Management". So I think Kayani's next move HAS to be force Pasha to retire and order a re-organisation of ISI individuals (this was done a few years ago anyway). Place a pro US guy as the ISI head. Then make himself a sacrificial goat and hand over to the next guy (Tariq Khan or Shameem Wynne).

Then quietly approach the Afghan Taleban, all maulvi saabs (Nazir et al) and TTP etc. Say we are new management, that jack ass Pasha is out. Tsk tsk... Lets get back together baby (if you are Goundamani - "Annaa , thambiii" scene between Goundamani and Senthil should come to mind). Meanwhile, the new guy comes in and says lets win back Afghanistan together, just as US troops start leaving. Somewhere here I would do a mini terror strike and some border clash to regain some pride and proving to everyone that India is the enemy - uniting people more. All this is dependent on the GCC-Iran situation, as the $$$'s need to flow. Maybe a good target would be to kick off a battle with Iran and send ALL abduls to the Iran border. Or at some point awar with India - nothing like getting them to do some chest thumping. A WAR AT SOME POINT WITH INDIA IS A MUST - They want more paisa to survive via IMF/KSA loans.

So what will MMS do? Never ending dossiers, more international pressure, keep the peace flag flying to prevent the war, while we grow our economy, Kangress continue to make $$$'s. All we have to do is keep talking to them and at the same time work overtime in washington, riyadh to dump them, undermine them in international arena. Remove their utility and hopefully we will have an Islamabad spring as well. Main thing is to turn the people against the TSPA - this is a massive challenge but needs to be worked on over the longterm. I mean come on TSPA owns a lot, runs your hospitals, businesses, colleges etc. Strip TSPA of its leadership structure and create a new one that submits to the will of the people or civilian govt. I know Riyadh won't mind that, Washington will probably say hell why not.

The above is just an outline of what is coming I feel but it is dependent on events in the ME.

saip · Post by **saip** » 06 May 2011 23:42

A very curious post in defndumb forum from USCENTCOM. Is it for real?

saadhak · Post by **saadhak** » 06 May 2011 23:44

Awesome post Rudradevji!
Average Indians like me are less aware of the connivance and perfidy of the US as compared to the very visible exposure to Chinese and Paki hostility.
I have often seen people scratch their heads unable to fathom the reason as to why the tolerance level of the US for Pakis' Pakiness seems infinite - similar to India's ability to absorb Pakis' jhapads.

Rudradevji's and Shiv saar's posts with hard hitting facts are eye openers and I agree that they should be shared. Speaking for myself, they have been instrumental in sliding off the blinkers spun out of the 'natural allies' and 'largest democracy oldest democracy bhai bhai' rhetoric.

Thanks gurus.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 May 2011 00:12

Pioneer Op-Ed....

LINK

OPED | Saturday, May 7, 2011 | Email | Print | | Back

Osama’s protection and ‘discovery’ — all scripted by ISI

May 07, 2011 12:40:01 AM

Ajey Lele

The Pakistanis protected Osama bin Laden for as long as it suited them and last week gave him up because a new design has been sculpted

Osama bin Laden is dead and everybody with any idea of terrorism is blaming Pakistan for keeping him alive for the past 10 years. But, will history judge Pakistan likewise?

It appears that the entire world is angry with Pakistan. Civilised humanity is angry, frustrated, and, above all helpless at the chicanery of the rulers of this rogue State bordering India to the west. But, are the Americans and Indians so naive as to think that Pakistan should have disclosed his whereabouts and allowed him to be killed or arrested soon after 9/11?

This may sound against the current of present thinking, but It is important to appreciate the fact that actually it goes to the credit of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) that the might of the United States was resisted through deception for not one or two years, but an entire decade. There is also a possibility that Osama was actually turned over the Americans when the ISI realised that he was no longer relevant to Pakistan’s designs.

It has been argued that it is ISI’s failure that Osama stayed in Pakistan for so long without getting noticed. But, in reality it could be viewed as the ISI’s success. It was a clever ploy to hide him at a place like Abbottabad, a quiet suburb of Islamabad, often referred to as the city of schools in a building next to a military training academy. Who could ever suspect that Osama would stay in a town dominated by the military? This place is around 60 km from Islamabad and 150 km from Peshawar. So, all kinds of political and logistical support were easily available. There is an airport in the vicinity in case there was need to fly him off in an emergency. Being a services town all kinds of modern medical facilities are available and military medical services could be put in use to hide the identity of the patient.

The interesting aspect is that Osama’s protectors, whoever they were, allowed the notion to spread that he was hiding in a cave. This could be viewed as a success of the ISI’s misinformation campaign. For students of media, this is a supreme case of “media management”. About Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) chief Prabhakaran it was said that he wore “cyanide necklaces” at all times, which turned out an exaggeration. Similarly, TV clips were leaked to the global media showing Osama always against a mountainous background. Those, in conjunction with the televised images of his 1999 interview, erected a permanent visual of him as a mountain man. This was admirable on the part of the ISI as this fiction allowed the world’s most notorious intelligence organisation to shield the world’s most wanted terrorist for almost a full decade without any problems.

While most people always believed that Osama could be hiding in Pakistan’s inaccessible mountain passes, they were successfully persuaded by post-9/11 Islamabad regimes that they were not to blame for that. A whole lot of associated fiction was created — for instance, it was spread that the tribes who lived in those areas did not care for Islamabad’s writ and that the Pakistani Army was forever inadequately equipped to take on the fierce, committed Taliban soldiers who guarded him— so please would America send more dollars?

Post 9/11, Pakistan was not offered too many options but to tow the US line. Now, it appears that they made best out of their compulsions. In one of his earliest albeit private outbursts, George W. Bush had threatened to reduce Pakistan to “fetal position”. A country which could have been attacked by the US actually ended up extracting maximum political and financial help from the US. So the operation to keep Osama in hiding was part of a larger strategy to squeeze the maximum possible out of America.

Within days of the Osama hit, Pakistan launched Plan B. They understand that now the US is likely to put them under tremendous pressure. So, they have started playing their cards carefully. Officially, they have admitted that “not knowing” the whereabouts of Osama for so many years was the failure of their intelligence setup. Pervez Musharraf, the military dictator who is the object of the needle of suspicion, has started giving TV interviews denying a Pakistani hand in the concealment. In the process he is batting for the ISI and General Ashfaq Kayani. Most importantly the country is not speaking in the same voice. This is useful for creating confusion. By harping on the line that more than 30,000 Pakistanis have died due to acts of terrorism in the past decade, the intellectuals deployed by the Pakistani establishment are generating a lot of patriotic bluster — this is coming useful because within days the hardline elements organised the first a series of prayer meetings for the fallen terrorist leader.

Pakistan understands that with Osama dead, its importance in America’s scheme of things would diminish by many degrees. But, to make themselves relevant for the US they still have two cards: Afghanistan and the nuclear issue. It would be interesting to watch how they could play these cards in coming days.

Predictably, old friend China has started making the familiar noises about the need for the world powers to keep Pakistan in humour. Two weeks before the killing of Osama, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani had told the Afghan President Hamid Karzai that the Americans had failed them both. In his view, the US is facing significant economic problems and hence is unlikely to support any process of long-term regional development. Under these circumstances it’s better to engage China. Such statements could have also been made to pressurise the US. Today, Pakistan needs more US support than ever.

Meanwhile, there are important lessons here for India. Assuming that the powers in Pakistan had some idea about the Osama’s hideout location there is a lot to ponder over. Is India’s post 26/11 policy of ‘dossier diplomacy’ relevant? Will Pakistan ever response to India’s demands truthfully? If Pakistan can fool the US, is India’s policy of confidence building measures (CBMs) appropriate? Can Pakistan be trusted?

India’s own intelligence agencies should pick up a few tips from their Pakistani opposite numbers. Our babu-laden R&AW and IB would really benefit if a little part of the professionalism of the ISI infects them. It is important to appreciate that the US succeeded in locating Osama because of the correct mix of human and technical intelligence. In Indian context much more needs to be done in both these fields.

It looks unlikely that Pakistan would abandon its policy of using terrorism as a tool against India. Under these circumstances are the methods followed by India are correct or there is a need for the midcourse correction?

-- The writer is Research Fellow, IDSA

Uncalled for dig at Indian agencies.
What located OBL was painstaking police work which India can also do. However what took out OBL was US pit bull capablity.

On the other hand Indian agencies are a toothless booldhounds. They will locate/sniff their targets but cant take them out. For this one needs political will.

For example the Indian agencies who confirmed the Dawood Ibrahim move did not order the guy to be taken out during that move.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 07 May 2011 00:13

FYI, per my post above - Pasha is visitng Unkil-land.

http://www.dunyanews.tv/index.php?key=Q ... Q9MjU1NzM=

Karna_A · Post by **Karna_A** » 07 May 2011 00:16

Rudradev wrote:
Had it not been for PVNR, our greatest Prime Minister to date, at the helm in those dire years... the plan to separate Kashmir might even have succeeded.

It was only through the greatest and most steadfast heroism that we stood firm through these times. This was the WORST of jihad we faced in Kashmir.
And Osama Bin Laden/ "Al Qaida" had NOTHING WHATEVER to do with it.

10) It is important to note that at this stage, OBL never said a word about jihad in Kashmir.

In fact, I don't recall him mentioning Kashmir at all until about 2005. By that time he was a "guest" of ISI and the Hizbul Mujahedin, probably at Abbottabad. So, he was probably just relieving his polite obligations to his hosts by including Kashmir in his speeches.

There is a good reason why OBL... concentrating on Israel, the West and US-proxy-KSA...could not care less about Kashmir.

It goes back to the Arab Ghazi psyche.

To people like OBL, disputes like Kashmir are beneath contempt for an organization of Al-Qaeda's scope and ambition. They are squabbles between lesser beings, not worthy of his time or effort.

OBL (and most Arabs) do not see the Pakistanis as birathers. In fact, they see the Pakistan-India conflict as something not very serious; it is a case of upstart recently-converted SDREs fighting against kaffir, but highly Dhimmified and harmless SDREs. If a serious conflict erupts, Pakistan (as Muslims) must be supported; however, it is better to maintain a distance from both Pakistan and India in general. Both have their uses... Pakis as servile mercenaries and dalals for China; Indians as cheap, docile and sometimes skilled labour. The idea that India constitutes a "threat to Islam" would have made an Arab Ghazi like Bin Laden laugh... Kashmir or no Kashmir.

If OBL and Al-Qaeda throw their weight behind the Kashmir jihad, they will be diverted from targets that actually matter to Washington... the US, Western countries, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The TSPA/ISI are happy too... they think that the addition of OBL's Pan-Islamist banner, plus the vast West Asian funding networks of Al-Qaeda to the Kashmir jihad, will give them the ability to push India over the edge. They assure Washington that, with Taliban cooperation, they can keep OBL diverted away from Western interests and towards India.

13) This beautiful plan fails to take into account the tenacity, single-mindedness and commitment of OBL to his grand vision... pan Islamic jihad against the West. As stated before, he doesn't give a cr@p about Kashmir. It is beneath him and his army to get involved in such a lowly scrap. He is after the US, and Israel!

Besides this, the generous sources of funding which OBL used to bring into Afghanistan (and of which, some must have been siphoned off by ISI to use against India) quickly dry up under American pressure against the financial conduits. So even that fringe benefit of OBL's presence, quickly disappears for the ISI.

Net gain for India, any way you look at it, compared to the 1990s.

16) 2002 is another pivotal year.

Washington now starts to lean on Islamabad to rein back terrorism against India. Notably, terrorism against India in J&K goes into a steady decline from 2002 onwards... showing that J&K jihad was completely, entirely in the hands of ISI, and had nothing to do with OBL/Al-Qaeda.

17) From 2005 onwards, the character of the Afghan conflict changes. The ISI begins to use specific proxies among the Taliban to do its bidding in Afghanistan... including the Haqqanis, Hafiz Gul Bahadar, Maulvi Nazir, Hekmatyar etc.

OBL may have provided his blessings to these efforts as a gesture of gratitude to his Pakistani hosts... but he did not have either the assets, experience or reach within India to do anything of practical use. The LeT and ISI have far more assets in India than "Al Qaeda" ever did. So why would they need him as a "guiding light" or anything else?

What could the ISI do to him... hand him over to the Americans? In doing so, they would lose their primary trump card, their greatest bargaining chip of all. They would also earn the instant wrath of all the jihadi tanzeems that still remained loyal to TSPA, and possibly of allied Taliban factions in Waziristan as well (the formerly ISI-allied Maulvi Nazir in South Waziristan has already declared Jihad against Islamabad following the Americans' raid on Abbotabad!)

By 2011 the TSPA/ISI had been forced into a corner. 89% of drone attacks by the US in 2010 had been against ISI-proxy Taliban factions in N. Waziristan. Meanwhile TTP in Orakzai, Malakand and Bajaur had begun to hit back in force against the TSPA, including raids in Dir and Swat. The Raymond Davis episode, among other things, had forced US-Pakistan relations to the point of nearly public hostility.

The TSPA/ISI knew they could not keep up the show of defiance for very much longer. By summer the IMF had to approve critical loans that Pakistan needed to survive. If the only way out of this was to play the trump card... to sacrifice Osama Bin Laden, who was never any use to them against India anyway... so be it.

19) This brings us to the final chapter concluded last weekend: the American raid on the Abbotabad HM Safehouse where OBL was hiding.

Could the US have conducted the raid without any knowledge of the TSPA/ISI top-brass? Unlikely.

However awesome the stealth helicopters, the NAVY seals, the high-tech jamming gear etc... there were just too many things that could have gone wrong with a purely unilateral operation, for Washington to risk it. From JSOC choppers getting shot down, to a fire-fight in urban Pakistan including civilian collateral damage, to the mistaken launch of a Pakistani nuke against India. Just too many unpredictable outcomes to consider, if the US had actually "gone it alone."

There is only one possible answer: the Pakis may have agreed to let the US snatch OBL on such humiliating terms because... the only alternative available to the Pakis was WORSE. Unkil has something so damaging to the Pakis, that he was able to threaten them with it, and dictate the terms of how the OBL raid was going to go... or else.

We have survived the connivance of all these parties under much worse circumstances, when we were much weaker. With the wisdom of our ancestors, the courage of our people, and the virtuous sword arm of Dharma on our side we shall continue to survive it until we prevail. Jai Hind!

Rudradev, Your post above is a keeper and has more wisdom than rest of 63 pages combined. There is no need to read anything else, just this post is enough. People may not agree with it and they have certainly a right to their own views, but what you have written is the best analysis given the facts.

For gullible folks, it may seem like loss of H&D to TSP, but this OBL snatch was no different than Taliban's Military Chief, Mullah Baradar Capture. In fact, it serves as a warning to Mullah Omar, Zawahiri and others, that when and if you go against TSP crooked interests, this is what is in store for you.

Yes, for OBL Kashmir was a non issue. It was like telling Hitler during WW2 that instead of attacking Russia, Germany needs to put all its resources and manpower in capturing Switzerland! Kashmir was just beneath the dignity of OBL to even consider an issue. What would a terror strike there mean. Killing a muslim Chief Minister, including his muslim body guards, and muslim policemen so 100% muslim majority Valley becomes more Mulsim!! He would not even have spit at that idea till he became a paying guest of ISI.
However for TSPA K word been do or die since last 60+ years. And therefore OBL was of no use to them.

Of course, Unkil is not that stupid and only conveyed a general message that they will take out OBL. This is standing policy since 2001. When and where, they did not deem necessary to tell. Such operations happen half dozen times a year, so nothing special about this one.

In fact ISI is amused and can never understand why so much fuss and noise about OBL when 90%+ of Islamic terror is ISI terror and not due to AQ.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 07 May 2011 00:46

Ex IB chief Dobhal leaves NDTV discussion on account of show host paying more attention the guest from Pakistan

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 May 2011 00:52

Tubelight moment.

TSP had its Cold Rat moment if not the Cold Start!

Cold Rat= Thanda Chua!

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 07 May 2011 00:57

saadhak wrote:Awesome post Rudradevji!
Average Indians like me are less aware of the connivance and perfidy of the US as compared to the very visible exposure to Chinese and Paki hostility.
I have often seen people scratch their heads unable to fathom the reason as to why the tolerance level of the US for Pakis' Pakiness seems infinite - similar to India's ability to absorb Pakis' jhapads.

Rudradevji's and Shiv saar's posts with hard hitting facts are eye openers and I agree that they should be shared. Speaking for myself, they have been instrumental in sliding off the blinkers spun out of the 'natural allies' and 'largest democracy oldest democracy bhai bhai' rhetoric.

Thanks gurus.

Can Rudradev's post be made part of the reference posts on the TSP thread? Thanks.