News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

[Rangudu]

Many moons ago, NY Times reported that Kayani once laughed at Obama, saying that the US President had "no fire in his belly" for the Afghan war or to do the manly things needed.

Obama may be a fattu leader but he does have an ego and I doubt that he forgot this insult. I also doubt that Bush or even McCain (had he won) would have ordered this type of raid.

[Amber G.]

....


10) It is important to note that at this stage, OBL never said a word about jihad in Kashmir.

In fact, I don't recall him mentioning Kashmir at all until about 2005. By that time he was a "guest" of ISI and the Hizbul Mujahedin, probably at Abbottabad. So, he was probably just relieving his polite obligations to his hosts by including Kashmir in his speeches.

There is a good reason why OBL... concentrating on Israel, the West and US-proxy-KSA...could not care less about Kashmir.

.

Really??? Really does not matter if the quotes came as a "guest" or not..

Much before 9/11, in November 1998, the Army claimed to have seized from militants, after an encounter in the Pir Panjal ranges, some cards with messages from Osama describing India as enemy No.1.

..his[Osama] messages suggesting that the terror ideologue looked upon India as an enemy and a potential target. The alliance between al-Qaida and Lashkar-e-Taiba, India's main terror threat, suggests that Osama had evolved into more than being just an inspirational figure for several terror groups targeting India.

The links between anti-India terror groups and Osama's jihadis have been known at least since 1998 when members of Harkat-ul-Ansar, a terrorist group focused on Kashmir, training alongside al-Qaida members in Afghanistan were killed in a US missile attack. In fact, the very first reference to India by Osama came in May 1998 when he said in a press conference at Khost in Afghanistan that he would love to join the jihad in Kashmir if the Pakistani authorities allowed him. Osama's answer came in response to a question from a Pakistani journalist. In the same conference, he announced the formation of International Islamic Front for Jihad Against the US and Israel.

Link: http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... oups-osama

Also, there are prayers going on for Osama ..
Geelani prays for Osama, Pakistan

urriat hardliner Syed Ali Shah Geelani on Friday hold funeral prayers for slain al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden in Jammu & Kashmir's Srinagar town.

[Rampy]

ramana
Is it possible that there was something more valuable to US other than Osama in that compound? If it is, what could it be?
Altair

Pictures of US diplomates eating samosas (made by Paki diplomats) with Osama and his honchos

There was a rumor that US Seals took one guy alive. This op could have been for that ghost person, instead of Osama. If they wanted only Osama they they would have waited for 5 yrs JMT

[Sam]

There was a rumor that US Seals took one guy alive. This op could have been for that ghost person, instead of Osama. If they wanted only Osama they they would have waited for 5 yrs JMT

Which other 'ghost person' can be a higher value target than Osama? The rumors are unfounded.

[Ravi Karumanchiri]

Awesome post Rudradevji!
...
Rudradevji's and Shiv saar's posts with hard hitting facts are eye openers and I agree that they should be shared. Speaking for myself, they have been instrumental in sliding off the blinkers spun out of the 'natural allies' and 'largest democracy oldest democracy bhai bhai' rhetoric.

Thanks gurus.

Can Rudradev's post be made part of the reference posts on the TSP thread? Thanks.

I have already added Rudradev's post to the "Newbie Corner & Military Miscellaneous" thread in the Military forum.

Rudradev, that was a GREAT POST -- an instant classic!

[Karna_A]

Many moons ago, NY Times reported that Kayani once laughed at Obama, saying that the US President had "no fire in his belly" for the Afghan war or to do the manly things needed.

Obama may be a fattu leader but he does have an ego and I doubt that he forgot this insult. I also doubt that Bush or even McCain (had he won) would have ordered this type of raid.

Beware the fury of a patient man. That applies to Obama.
He was born a Muslim, so he is not scared of taking on radical Muslims, as no one can accuse him of not understanding Muslim psyche unlike Bush and McCain. Just like KPS Gill was not scared of being branded a Sikh hater. Or KSA that burns Quran every day at its airports and uses Kaffir French commandoes against Muslim radicals.
Before the end of this year, no. 2 Zawahiri would be dead too. TSP just cannot hide him in Murree anymore.
Mullah Omar will be 3rd in line but may survive longer as he is so far more useful.
D-comp is the most difficult, as he is currently richer than bankrupt TSP and is bankrolling the entire state. But if his hands are found in any AFG Unkil deaths, he is toast too.
The next prediction is that AQ with mid/senior level ISI(upto Colonel/Major General level)help will orchestrate a high profile assasination most possibly in AFG, and things would become more interesting after that.

Karzai surely knows what he is talking about.

http://www.allword-news.co.uk/2010/11/0 ... r-failure/

“Do you really think the ISI could pick Mullah Omar if they wanted?” Hillary Clinton asked President Hamid Karzai in Kabul. “They could deliver Mullah Omar like I can pick up this cookie.” Karzai answered when he reached over and plucked a chocolate chip cookie from his plate,” reports Bob Woodward in his book Obama’s War.

[Mahendra]

In fact, the very first reference to India by Osama came in May 1998 when he said in a press conference at Khost in Afghanistan that he would love to join the jihad in Kashmir if the Pakistani authorities allowed him. Osama's answer came in response to a question from a Pakistani journalist. In the same conference, he announced the formation of International Islamic Front for Jihad Against the US and Israel.

Osama had been seeking permission for Pakistanese authorities since may 1998( after evil Atal Bihari exploded new clear bums )
Osama announces a front for G-had against Israel and US and leaves India out

Adds up well to what Rudraji has been saying

[svinayak]

There was a rumor that US Seals took one guy alive. This op could have been for that ghost person, instead of Osama. If they wanted only Osama they they would have waited for 5 yrs JMT

Which other 'ghost person' can be a higher value target than Osama? The rumors are unfounded.

There are many possibilities. Do you think Bin Laden will sit in the computer in the compound in Attobabad and do all the plans of hitting some target in west all alone with his fingers in the key board. This is unlikely and somebody who is the real strategist and planner would be on the keyboard.

Some other males will be coming inside and outside the compound but there is no report of other males other than the two brothers doing the courier errands for Bin Laden.

The possibility is that there are few males who could be still alive and bin laden could have been killed.
Other possibility is that bin laden was not the person but a proxy person who was pretending to the bin laden in the compound. This person may have been killed since he was known to to ISI/PA and the GOTUS/CIA.

The global media was told that OBL was killed finally

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id= ... atestRight

Al Qaeda confirms bin Laden's death, warns of more attacks

Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id= ... z1Lbkn2F3M

[Paul]

In the late 90s the JEM, LET and other paki orgs used to taunt Indian security forces in Kahmir that "OBL is coming here soon, Beware".

[ramana]

AmberG,

There are tenous links between OBL and Kashmir terrorism. So the jury is still out. Infact SAH Geelani is US pet via the APHC promoted by Robin Rapahel and its a recent nexus between him and OBL.

However all this does not detract from the majority of Rudradev's post.

[Amber G.]

Adds up well to what Rudraji has been saying

Not really, What he said was:

OBL never said a word about jihad in Kashmir.

In fact, I don't recall him mentioning Kashmir at all until about 2005.

He certainly has said more than a word about Jihad in Kashmir, and 1998 (where he mentioned Kashmir) is before 2005.

[ramana]

SO what really ticks you off in his post?

[surinder]

Pardon my civility. Five years, thats a long period for a viril, young lady, and seems to have no children during that period. Was OBL impotent or using contraceptives (against religion of peace) or he just ______ with musharaf.

At least she got a white picket fence, maybe it was not white but at least it was 18' high.

[ramana]

Telegraph, Kolkata summation in a jpg

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110506/i ... udibig.jpg

[Karna_A]

Adds up well to what Rudraji has been saying

Not really, What he said was:

OBL never said a word about jihad in Kashmir.

In fact, I don't recall him mentioning Kashmir at all until about 2005.

He certainly has said more than a word about Jihad in Kashmir, and 1998 (where he mentioned Kashmir) is before 2005.

When there is fire in the House, no use focussing on closing of all lights even if you need to follow the rules.
Trying to dott all i's and crossing all t's and you miss the main point.

AQ and OBL only did lip service to Kashmir, as for purists Jihad in Kashmir is as meaningless as Chipanda raising Great Wall against Mongolians again today.

[Amber G.]

AmberG,

There are tenous links between OBL and Kashmir terrorism. So the jury is still out. Infact SAH Geelani is US pet via the APHC promoted by Robin Rapahel and its a recent nexus between him and OBL.

However all this does not detract from the majority of Rudradev's post.

Ramana - IMO, I simply don't believe there there is no link between OBL and Kashmir Jihad. In fact links are fairly documented.

Also, I understand that there is lot of oohs and ahhs but I find the following a little odd.

:

Could the US have conducted the raid without any knowledge of the TSPA/ISI top-brass? Unlikely.

However awesome the stealth helicopters, the NAVY seals, the high-tech jamming gear etc... there were just too many things that could have gone wrong with a purely unilateral operation, for Washington to risk it. From JSOC choppers getting shot down, to a fire-fight in urban Pakistan including civilian collateral damage, to the mistaken launch of a Pakistani nuke against India. Just too many unpredictable outcomes to consider, if the US had actually "gone it alone."

There is only one possible answer: the Pakis may have agreed to let the US snatch OBL on such humiliating terms because... the only alternative available to the Pakis was WORSE. Unkil has something so damaging to the Pakis, that he was able to threaten them with it, and dictate the terms of how the OBL raid was going to go... or else.

Well Rudraji starts with his judgement/speculation it is "unlikely" that the top ISI/TSPA did not know about the raid. Fine.

But then mentions (again just guesses) how effective (or lack of it) are helicopters, seals etc...

And draws a conclusion "only one possible answer"..

Other (at least one) at least a possible answer (and IMO more likely one) is Rudraji is wrong in his guesses. I don't think any of us know all the capabilities and operational details to say with certainty what they can not do. Best one can do is to guess, and present it as their opinion/guess.

Unless one can point to a basis (as in actual evidence that ISI/TSPA knew) it is not logical to draw "only one" conclusion. (I don't have to prove the opposite)

[Sam]

There are many possibilities. Do you think Bin Laden will sit in the computer in the compound in Attobabad and do all the plans of hitting some target in west all alone with his fingers in the key board. This is unlikely and somebody who is the real strategist and planner would be on the keyboard.

1. It is possible that like addicted video gamers Osama spent a lot of time on a computer. Recall that he was a university student in his younger days so basic use of computers would be within his skill levels.
2. Lets say 1 is not possible then we can assume that Osama would be speaking out loud with some other person banging away on the keyboard whatever he said.
So in theory a strategist need not be at the keyboard.

Some other males will be coming inside and outside the compound but there is no report of other males other than the two brothers doing the courier errands for Bin Laden.

With the Pakistani shelwar kameez outfits even hundred guys coming and going [one or two at a time] into the compound would like only two brothers.

The possibility is that there are few males who could be still alive and bin laden could have been killed.
Other possibility is that bin laden was not the person but a proxy person who was pretending to the bin laden in the compound. This person may have been killed since he was known to to ISI/PA and the GOTUS/CIA.

I do not discount this either. Could a higher value target than Osama such as an ISI or PA General be at the compound and grabbed by Seal team 6? Possible but all key ISI and PA players appear to be accounted for, at least as of now.

The global media was told that OBL was killed finally

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id= ... atestRight

Al Qaeda confirms bin Laden's death, warns of more attacks

Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id= ... z1Lbkn2F3M[/quote]

Not disputing any of these.

[Amber G.]

SO what really ticks you off in his post?

Nothing ticks me off. Just correcting the record. What ticks you off, if anything, from my post?

[Vashishtha]

Mr, Rudradev....Excellent post, uve pulled me out of the lurker status..............

in other 'news'......it seems that even 'provocative' are WRONG!!! Why does ndtv get some dude from isloo to 'comment' on INDIAN national interests.....
http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/left-r ... /198871?hp

One interesting thing is that he is promoting the 'narrative' that our evil yindoo army is going against pissful mms.......are they seriously trying to drive a divide within indian society tht OUR army is 'against peaceful interests'??

oh and lastly, AATHOO at ndtv

[ramana]

Am sure Rudradev will answer your questions AmberG.

[hnair]

SO what really ticks you off in his post?

the poster

Ramana - IMO, I simply don't believe there there is no link between OBL and Kashmir Jihad. In fact links are fairly documented.

Also, I understand that there is lot of oohs and ahhs but I find the following a little odd.

user Amber G, is doing some rather childish trolling to soothe some past takleef.

[Prem]

What if OBL was put on train to jannat and Zwahiri was picked up alive from the location?

[svinayak]

What if OBL was put on train to jannat and Zwahiri was picked up alive from the location?

Ahh! Now we are talking of the possibilities.

[SwamyG]

Obama may be a fattu leader but he does have an ego and I doubt that he forgot this insult. I also doubt that Bush or even McCain (had he won) would have ordered this type of raid.

McCain had stated that he would respect the sovereignty of Pakistan. Mrs. Clinton made similar noises too. Only Obama, in 2008, when asked said the following:

"if Pakistan is unable or unwilling to hunt down bin Laden and take him out, then we should."

Flashback

On February 19, 2008, McCain spoke at a victory party for his win in the Wisconsin primary, and wondered: "Will we risk the confused leadership of an inexperienced candidate who once suggested bombing our ally, Pakistan?"

"Nobody talked about attacking Pakistan," Obama replied. "Here's what I said, and if John wants to disagree with this, he can let me know: That, if the United States has al Qaeda, bin Laden, top-level lieutenants in our sights, and Pakistan is unable or unwilling to act, then we should take them out. Now, I think that's the right strategy; I think that's the right policy."

[jarugn]

The Lies They Tell Us:
Can the Pakistani government's web of deceit survive the death of Osama bin Laden?
MOSHARRAF ZAIDI

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... ey_tell_us

[Anujan]

Rudradev-ji

I disagree vehemently with the first part of your analysis. You are interpreting US actions in the "Evil Genius Mastermind" angle. Actually the right interpretation is the "Bumbling Idiot" angle. You have to realize that a "core" of the US, people in the CIA/Analysts think strategically and the rest -- Senate and the House are pretty much aandu--paandu types who will say and do the silliest things. Even the "core" has its energy and attention sapped by other issues and frequently does not drive policy.

The way to interpret US policy is "not-too-smart-shortsightedness"

1. This Shortsightedness had given rise to two aspects in US foreign policy
(a) Not realizing that improvement in communication and travel had rendered the american mainland vulnerable to attacks. The previous attack of any significance on US mainland by a foreign power was Pearl harbor. There is a reason why there was a long hiatus till 1993. For individuals and terror organizations to attack the US, communication and travel is necessary. In pre-internet/cell phone/cheap telephone days, it was simply very hard to communicate with sleeper cells inside the US. Only countries could do that. Again, in the pre-80's and 90's (before WTO ityadi), travel volume was much less. So screening people was more effective. The gradual change in communication and travel means that US today is vulnerable to terror attacks from small teams. The americans *simply did not realize* that the world has changed. Ergo they ignored Bin Laden who was some guy sitting in tent with camels tied nearby. Did they know OBL hated the US and the west? Yes. Did they think he would be able to pull of a spectacular attack? No. Nobody paid any attention to him at all! In fact Clinton cruise missile attacks were derided by Republicans as a cheap attempt to divert attention from the Monica issue!! So the fact that OBL and his movements were largely ignored is *NOT* due to some malicious plan of using him against CAR and JK, but simply because US was sleeping.

(b) The second aspect of foreign policy is short sightedness. Saudis & US have nothing in common. Cheenis and US have nothing in common. Pakis and US have nothing in common. But in each of these cases, US wants something from them: Oil, counterweight to Russia, action in A'stan. So US goes and tries to build a relationship which caves in in the long term under its own contradictions. Again there is nothing "Strategic" about these relationships. They are driven due to short term considerations and die in the long terms.

This aspect of short sightedness, when it dawned upon the policy types is when you had Repubs blurting in a confused way "Pre-9/11 mentality....better to fight them there than fight them here....shared values....blah blah.

I feel US still has not internalized these lessons. Because their reaction to (a) has been in the form of restricting travel and snooping on communications and (b) hasnt sunk in fully at all. The fact that OBL moved to Afghanistan was largely ignored. US saw no threat from him and no use from him either.

2. On the other hand, Pakis learned the right lesson from the Soviet Jihad.
The best way for the Russians to end their afghan campaign would have been to bomb the daylights out of Pindi. They certainly had the airforce and missile armory to do so. At the very least, they could have atleast staged a massive cross border punitive attack in tribal areas. The reason they didnt do that is the not-too-subtle indication from the US that any attack on the Pakis would invite american retaliation. So Pakis realized that the two essential ingredients for staging successful Jihad action are

(a) Terror camps and infrastructure located far away from the place where the actual action is.
(b) Protection umbrella against conventional military retaliation.

The "US left the area after their security objectives were met " towel has partial truth to it. During the Soviet Jihad, US was guarantor of Paki security *also from attacks from India* -- this guarantee was extracted from the Pakis after (a) When US stood idly by in 1971 (b) Perception in the US that India was in the Soviet camp and Soviets could persuade India to carry out punitive strikes on the Pakis to relieve some pressure on the Soviets. There might or might not have been some truth to (b) because India was non-aligned at that time. But Pakis had the US persuaded that India was in the soviet camp and ergo anti-US** and ergo wont hesitate to attack the Pakis as a Soviet proxy to relieve pressure on the Soviets. (will return to this later)

The terror attacks in India (in '93 Mumbai serial blasts for example) and the subsequent absence of punitive attacks from India should be seen in this light. To his credit PVN tried very hard to convince the US that Indian retaliation would be in reply to attacks in India and not because India was a soviet lackey. The US cover was gradually withdrawn after the Soviet withdrawal from A'stan and Pakis had to live with the knowledge that nobody was protecting them retaliation. Hence the about US "leaving the region". To their credit, they did develop the bum and leave the SDREs shivering in their dhotis. Ofcourse that didnt help during Kargil.

Where does this leave OBL? The Saudis actually *do* fear him. You have to understand that paranoia is inherent to authoritarian regimes. Like how China put down Falun Gong with an iron hand to make sure that there was no organization with the power to challenge the communist party. The Saudis are paranoid about religious groups -- They realize that the greatest threat to their monarchy is mass mobilization of people, and that can be easily done through religious rhetoric in the land of the two mosques.

3. Pakis have never been able to convince anyone that their cause is Pan-Islamist
JK's initial troubles started with groups which were largely from the valley youth. This was hijacked by PakJabi groups whose leaders were Army munnas and footsoldiers were illiterate Pakis. This is a qualitative difference from the leadership of ALQ where OBL and his Shura *are really ideologically motivated Islamists* They cannot be convinced by the Paki army and ISI that JK is an Islamic cause because the top Jernails are clean shaven, breed dogs, swill whiskey and have 10,000 mistresses. If anything, OBL and ALQ will call for *their* ouster first before even thinking about JK. OBL (pre 9/11) was most definitely not in Paki control, leave alone Saudi or US control.

[Sam]

There is only one possible answer: the Pakis may have agreed to let the US snatch OBL on such humiliating terms because... the only alternative available to the Pakis was WORSE. Unkil has something so damaging to the Pakis, that he was able to threaten them with it, and dictate the terms of how the OBL raid was going to go... or else.

What is that "WORSE" thing? I don't know.

I have a suspicion that it might revolve around two trials currently taking place in the US, though. The trial of Tawwahur Hussein Rana in Chicago; and the trial in NY where the families of American 26/11 victims are suing the Pakistan Army and ISI. Things which could have come out in those trials and become public information, may have been even more damaging to Pakistan than the mere fact of OBL hiding in Abbotabad all these years.

Not much would come out of suing Pakistan Army and ISI, such a trial would be small potatoes for a drug-terror conglomerate such as Pakistan. Moreover Pakistan does not have any sense of guilt or shame, to top this as a defendant Pakistan would have used the best American lawyers $$$ (America's money) can buy! From the billions of $$$ they received they would have been extremely glad to pay off 'American 26/11 victims'. Come to think of it --- the 'deal' (if there was one) to look the other way and let Osama be killed/airlifted is far WORSE than what Pakistan might undergo from a lawsuit fallout.

[ramana]

The Lies They Tell Us:
Can the Pakistani government's web of deceit survive the death of Osama bin Laden?
MOSHARRAF ZAIDI

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... ey_tell_us

A Kabila dweller comes to grips with how the guards control them. However he has to come out ot realize the fullscope of it.

The role of the Kabila guards and the role of the outsiders who want the guards to control the Kabila dwellers.

[ramana]

Anujan, Given a chance between going after Kashmir or the jernails who do you think OBL would go after? Not TTP but OBL.

The beauty of US is progress always occurs because of incremental, disconnected and serendipous steps. It doesn't matter they bumbled their way. What matters is where they arrived.

[Anujan]

I also disagree with the fact that the Paki army helped the US to catch OBL. You have to understand that the Jernails and Kernails are beholden to *Army as an institution* which would give anything to protect their H&D. If it comes out that the top Jernails and Kernails sold out their H&D, the middle and bottom will revolt and split the army.

The greatest blow to their H&D was '71 and they still about it, talk about it, vow revenge for it *to this day*. There is absolutely no way that the Pakis would let Amreekis enter from the rear, drop off a few SEALs 500 meters from PMA, shoot up a few, and hold back against them. There are several things that could have gone wrong with this op. SEALs could have shot up a few Paki civilians. SEALs could have shot up a few Paki police/army types who responded. They could have lost both helos, in which case they are either stuck & fortified themselves in the compound (think Raymond Davis times 80 men + 1 dog) or Pakis should let the US violate their sovirginity again by sending 2 more helos. All of which is a H&D loss big enough for the Army to split. This is a kick in the nuts and a slap on their H&D of immeasurable proportions. In addition, it has *huge* potential to undercut the mango abdul's confidence and admiration of the army and give opportunities for the civvies to grow a pair.

No Sir, Pakis didnt help.

Now Pakis could have helped in an *individual capacity*. Did some ISI/Army higher up sell out for a few greenbacks, a gori motorma and a green card? I will bet my left testimonial that they did. The increased "contacts" between mid-level intelligence/army types starting 10 years back means that a vast fraction of them are higher ups now.

Now did higher up Pakis actually instruct the army to hold back? No sir, they didnt. RADAR operators, Forward observers, ISI goons right up to captains and Chowkidar of PMA had to be informed to hold back. And this *would eventually leak* especially from the mid to low level beard types, who would pick up their AKs, wear a Soosai vest and yell jeeeehaaaarrddd!! The most likely explanation is that Massa has penetrated the Army/ISI, from which they are getting *information* and not relying on them for ops. They have had 10 years to do this.

The gratifying outcome for me is, the Army and ISI is now going to go on a witch hunt and turn on themselves to identify these moles.

[Anujan]

Anujan, Given a chance between going after Kashmir or the jernails who do you think OBL would go after? Not TTP but OBL.

The beauty of US is progress always occurs because of incremental, disconnected and serendipous steps. It doesn't matter they bumbled their way. What matters is where they arrived.

Ramana-ji

I do subscribe to the fact that OBL was so close to PoK border to infuse some josh into the Jihadi groups in JK. In fact the Paki army could also be preparing for (as the turd Hamid Gul had said in so many interviews) the "talibs turning their attention to JK after Afghanistan was done". Hence their recent attempts to link up LeT, Haqqani network and other Afghanistan Yahoos. So that the Haqqani network in turn helps out the LeT in JK.

The point that I tried to highlight is to dispute the assertion that before 9/11 OBL was used by US/Pakis/Saudis to attack India in JK.

But Post 9/11 and post Pakis buying him a mansion, Did OBL subscribe to Jihad in JK whole heartedly? Probably no. Did Pakis pretty much have him under house arrest, squeeze his testimonals and probably send some fake messages from him through his trusted paki "couriers" yelling "jeehaaarrddd in Cashmere!!" -- definitely yes. I still think that left to his own devices (which was pre 9/11) OBL would concentrate on attacking US/Saudis and ignore India. Maybe even record a few messages against the Paki jernails who were selling out his associates. After Pakis started sheltering him, to protect his own life -- he probably did favors for his host. No doubt about that.

[ramana]

Anujan, Thats my point too. As Bin Powell said "past is past". Lets concentrate on OBL from 2005. And looks like a major issue was cut-off with his demise.

Also, what are TTP and Gul types saying?

[VenkataS]

After Osama bin Laden, Pakistan’s narrow window for redemption

Pakistan is the global epicenter of radical Islamist ideology

Since the country's founding in 1947, Pakistan's spy services have used extremists as a foreign-policy sledgehammer to level the playing field for the army's sub-standard performance on the battlefield

[Anujan]

Hillary is scheduled to make a stop in Pakistan later this month. Apparently she will be asking the Civvies to grow a pair and not palm off responsibility to the Khakhis. Apparently she is going to debrief and GUBO the jernails. There are talks of demands to "re-structure" the ISI to bring it under civilian oversight.

[Rishirishi]

Here is another story.

The US want's to end the opperations in AF and offers a sweetheart deal. OBL in excange for AF exit.

[Anujan]

^^^
Let me make a famous prediction. US will claim "AF exit" by reducing their troops considerably. They will build massive bases to stage spec-op attacks, and patrol Af-Pak skies 24x7.

Will there be less grunts on the ground? Yes. Will US repeat their mistake by reducing their intelligence/SpecOps presence? No. Will Pakis continue to be dispatched to get their 72 after "US Withdrawal"? Yes.

"US Withdrawal" is happening one way or other, with or without OBL.

[Baikul]

^^^
Let me make a famous prediction. US will claim "AF exit" by reducing their troops considerably. They will build massive bases to stage spec-op attacks, and patrol Af-Pak skies 24x7.

Will there be less grunts on the ground? Yes. Will US repeat their mistake by reducing their intelligence/SpecOps presence? No. Will Pakis continue to be dispatched to get their 72 after "US Withdrawal"? Yes.

"US Withdrawal" is happening one way or other, with or without OBL.

I would be interested to know what you mean by "massive bases". While anything can and does happen, I find it difficult to believe they will rely on a strategy that has been discredited since Dien Bien Phu and the US involvement in Vietnam.

[Anujan]

What I meant to imply was huge fortified self-sufficient "American territory" ala Gitmo. I dont mean massive number of *people*. But enough to sustain helos, drones and Spec Ops.

[ranjbe]

Gurus Anujan, Rudradev,
Perhaps it is easiest to understand and forecast complex human-based issues based upon simple axioms. For example, in murder inquiries, police have been trained to begin with the latin phrase "Cui Bono", or "To whose benefit/Who benefits" from the murder?
Similarly, to predict the actions of the US President, one of the key questions to ask is "What unexpected event will destroy my Presidency?". Besides the obvious answer, a failing economy, another major answer is a terrorist attack on the US - BO is a goner if this happens, the Republicans will beat up on the fact on how Bush valiantly defended the Republic during his last 6 years, and how the incumbent is a liberal, left-wing bleeding-heart softy that has sold out our nation., etc. The worst possible manifestation of this syndrome would be a dirty-bomb or any WMD terrorist attack - that will be curtains for Obama.
Killing OBL is a very good brownie point event for the incumbent. However, the maximum amount of thought, planning and money is probably being spent planning to forestall events I discussed earlier.
If it means embracing Pakistan in order to keep close watch on their jihadis and nuclear assets, they will do it, and anybody else be damned.
Keep this fact in mind - it may hurt Indian sensibilities, and its position on issues such as Afghanistan, but there are plus points - Unkil has its hands in munna's pants, and India's anti-terrorism effort is made easier because of this fact.

[KapilN]

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 2011_pg1_6

Along expected lines. I continue to speculate if there is more than meets the eye (and if these lawmakers have been taken into confidence over what Pakistan did or didn't)