Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

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Arjun
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Arjun »

ramana wrote: 1. TSP did not know OBL was there and US pulled a strategic surprise.
2. TSP was protecting OBL and yet US managed to pull a strategic surprise
3. TSP sold out OBL and let US take credit in order to get palusible deniability
Option 3 has 2 possible sub-parts-
3a: TSP sold out OBL on its own accord, ie they made the initial approach to the US with the scheme
3b: TSP sold out OBL under US pressure...say US figures out that TSP is protecting OBL but does not know the actual wherebouts - Unkil threatens TSP with dire consequences unless TSP reveals all details.

3a is best case scenario for US-Pak relations, followed in descending order by 1, 3b and 2.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by RamaY »

^
3c: TSP sold out OBL when Unkil made a proposal they couldn't reject; pls note that it need not be a threat/pressure.... Kinda you scratch my back and I will scratch yours...
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by nvishal »

Lets look at it from its core; What is the long term objective?

What does pakistan what?
It wants unkil out of afghanistan. So that it can flex its muscles through the taliban to get control over afghanistan which will allow the PA and ISI to come and go across the borders with ease.

What does unkil want?
It wants west-centric jihadi outfits neutralised before it leaves.
-------

Both pakistan's and unkils objectives are colliding with each other. In a talibanised afg, west-centric jihadi's will sprout by default. This is the impasse.

So i think what has happened is that pakistan has given away OBL intentionally to try to break the impasse. "Since OBL is gone, unkil should leave afg"; that is the argument the pakistani's will be making from now. They are saying that "we will make it impossible for unkil to rebuild afg without the taliban... so be happy with the execution of the great jihadi but leave now".

PA and ISI's reputation outside pakistan is irrelevant. They are hero's at home and that is all that matters to them.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

interesting observations:

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semp ... f-day.html




« Dr. Brenner's "Buddha as Icon" tells us to "Move on up a Little Higher" - Sidney O. Smith III | Main
#Pakistan in the light of day

Afghan_01
"Pakistan’s army chief warned Thursday that any repeat of the type of U.S. commando operation that killed Osama bin Laden would be viewed as a violation of Pakistani sovereignty and would imperil military and intelligence cooperation between the two countries.

The combative statement came as a senior U.S. defense official said Pakistan would have to take “very concrete and visible steps” to persuade Congress to continue providing $3 billion in annual military and economic assistance." Washpost

-------------------------

"It's nice to be nice to the nice." Frank Burns

Let's see... What does Pakistan do for the US?

1-They let our Main Supply Route to Afghanistan run north from their ports to the Khyber Pass and to Quetta. This is a major vulnerability for us. With the size force we have in Afghanistan, we would have a difficult time supplying that force either through Russia or by air. Pakistani companies make a lot of money in the haulage on this MSR.

2- Pakistan's military keeps it's existing and future nuclear capability out of the larger world game. As has been discussed at SST many times, Pakistan either has or will soon have the real world CAPABILITY of ranging Israel's target set. They have around 100 fully engineered and manufactired deliverable nuclear weapons. They have aircraft and missiles (Shahiin 2 improved) that would do the job. The missile launchers are fully mobile. The US has zero control over this nuclear strike force. Logically, the willingness of the Pakistan military to keep this "piece" off the chess board is a major boon to the US. We do not want to see that willingness change to something else.

On the other hand...

Pakistan has been and continues to be secretly (maybe not so secretly any longer) aligned with Saudi Arabia and China. Many years ago the Pakistanis served as intermediaries for an IRBM sale by China to Saudi Arabia. That sale was conducted in circumstances of attempted secrecy that failed. Evidently nothing has changed much since then. The Pakistans are still involved in three way deals with China and Saudi Arabia that function to the detriment of US interests.

The Pakistani security services support many of our worst opponents in Afghanistan. This is so well documented that I won't bother to do so again.

Pakistan regards Afghanistan as a field of battle on which to confront their Indian opponents. In other words, their narrative of what Afghanistan is about is nothing like ours.

What to do about all this?

I have no idea what to do about the nuclear forc
e.

In regard to the other US vulnerabilities, some objective change must be made that removes the logistics vulnerability. The only real possibility lies in greatly reducing the size of the US force in Afghanistan. The problem of Pakistani support for some Taliban elements in the Afghan civil war has a simple solution. We should remove ourselves from participation in that civil war. What we need to do is maintain control of enough basing in Kabul and other forward areas to facilitate our continued pursuit of Islamic zealot groups dangerous to the US. Such a continuation will require some degree of continued support for the existing "government." pl

Bottom Line: Counterterrorism not Counterinsurgency.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/todays_pa ... &bk=A&pg=1

PS There was a power failure and other confusion that occurred in Abbotabad just before and during the raid. Nobody seems to have thought that these were probably US diversions in support of the raid.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by shravan »

Taliban launch spate of attacks in Afghan's Kandahar

(Reuters) - Taliban insurgents, including six suicide bombers, hit a series of government targets across Kandahar in southern Afghanistan on Saturday, triggering gunbattles that wounded at least 24 people.

---
From twitter

At least 2 of the dead suicide bombers in today's #Kandahar attack were Pakistanis

Kandahar governor shows this ID card of a #Pakistani involved in the attack http://taand.com/index.php?mod=article& ... icle=26411
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Johann »

X posting from the OBL thread
A_Gupta wrote:Once the Afghan Taliban leaders are safely ensconced in Kabul, after an American departure, and with Pakistani help, all bets are off; I don't see why they will be any more biddable than their Pakistani brethren.
The Afghan Taliban has never been 'safely ensconced' anywhere - they have always had to fight, and Pakistan has always been there to help them in those fights.

From 1996 to 2001 Pakistani armed forces personnel and Pakistani channeling of Gulf money were key to pushing the Northern Alliance to the brink of defeat.

The only way for the US to reduce its troop strength in Afghanistan without seeing it overrun by foreign and Pakistani jihadis again is to arm and fund strong local allies.

Unless the Afghan Taliban switches to a political mode, this American role means the Afghan Taliban will have to rely even more on other powers for help fighting its enemies. That would guarantee powerful leverage to Pakistan as long as it is able and willing to play that role.

Will Obama continue to show the same courage and insight, and saw away further at the Gordian Knot by killing Mullah Omar and Haqqani wherever in Pakistan they may be?

If he does, then one of two things will happen: Pakistan will break its alliance with America in order to save its relationship with the Afghan Taliban, or the Afghan Taliban and the Pakiban will merge and take on the PA. Either choice would unleash profound violence and change within Pakistan.

Losing the 'alliance', dishonest as it is, means losing 50% of the supply line to Afghanistan, and losing direct access to events in Pakistan. I cant see Obama acting unless he was reasonably sure that the PA would however reluctantly sell their strategic investment in Afghanistan via the Taliban and Haqqanis for money when compelled by American fait accompli.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

I think its still not clear what TSP role was. However American people/public is livid with Pak complicity with terrorists while taking money from US.

Most likely the TSP will have to sacrifice a few ISI and military types.

What we need to know is the post OBL crisis. How will it unfold.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by shyamd »

^^ Depends on the outcome of this event. Sounds like Obamba is calling TSPs bluff that OBL wasn't protected by ISI. Then Pak escalated by identifiying CIA station chief. So Obama is responding by investigating ISI protection of OBL. So the deadline of the investigation gives TSP a warning - either fall in line or we'll implicate ISI and take you guys on.

Ball is in TSP court.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

Bo calling TSP bluff on ISI involvement is to make the TSP willingly throw up their bad elements. Sort of holding by scruff of TSPA neck and make them throw up the bad stuff ingested.

This scenario negelects the fact that the whole TSPA Officers graduate from PMA, Kakul where the school motto is Jihad in Allah's name. Its fitting that OBL was terminated right in front of that Army Madrassa.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by shyamd »

x post to add more perspective.

^^ All these articles now and the BBC headlines etc is because the US govt is raising the tempo. Most major channels in the west have had specials questioning Pak's role.

Cameron is also launching an investigation into Pak's role. Coalition forces are aligning on TSP, placing pressure on Kayani. Kayani can either fall in line or make his next move. Question is - what does US want now? I am pretty sure Shuja Pasha would have spoken to DC and said CIA chief has to go because of internal pressure before Pak announced it. But why did Obama escalate now? Which means something else is happening behind the scenes. US is probably saying give us more talebs (probably Haqqani's). Also keep in mind hte drone strike the other day, which caused further embarresment - which led to the name of the CIA station chief being announced. Obama - investigation. So TSP will respond now. How?

I think Kayani is thinking - I have nukes and I know as long as I keep the talebs going at ISAF troops - these gorey don't have will power to sustain serious casualties. West Asia is putting pressure for Unkil to take on Iran, so the US is locked up there and so US can't do anything in the long run.

If Obama was smart, he would call their bluff and maintain the pressure on Pak - maybe use the investigation to implicate ISI, perhaps next move would be to sanction certain sections of TSPA/ISI. Take on Haqqani's in TSPA territory.

The US have plenty of cards to play - 26/11, this investigation on OBL protection, Balochistan and so many more. LOL!

How stupid do you think the west are?
- They all have known for many years about TSPs role in funding/helping/arming Talebs against US.
- They have massive amounts of evidence of TSPAF even air dropping supplies to talebs.
- Pak army IDs on taleb commanders.

They have known this for years. Why havent they pulled TSP by the ear before? Is it India? Is it because of TSP has nukes?

Whatever happens this is a test of willpower. Has TSP underestimated Unkil? Kayani is about to take some serious risks. If it gets that far where they literally bomb Mullah Omar in his TSPA bunker. Not outright war here but we can prepare for some IED mubaraks in TSP here.

India can't do any raids to get anyone - that would be ultimate H&D damage and will invite a disproportionate response from TSP. TSP needs a war with India to unite the country - so our leadership have rightly beefed up the borders and forward positions.

If this gets serious expect KSA to call a meeting between the 3 families and sort this out. Both will issue terms and some settlement will be brokered.

Added Later: After reading the US Ambassador's intercview to the Paki press it is clear what the US wants. US have said either work with us and hand over Zawahiri & Mullah Omar (save your H&D) or we'll get them ourselves and this will get worse for you. So Pak have said a BIG NO to the US. LOL! Lets see where this goes.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by svinayak »

shyamd wrote:
Cameron is also launching an investigation into Pak's role. Coalition forces are aligning on TSP, placing pressure on Kayani. Kayani can either fall in line or make his next move. Question is - what does US want now? I am pretty sure Shuja Pasha would have spoken to DC and said CIA chief has to go because of internal pressure before Pak announced it. But why did Obama escalate now? Which means something else is happening behind the scenes. US is probably saying give us more talebs (probably Haqqani's). Also keep in mind hte drone strike the other day, which caused further embarresment - which led to the name of the CIA station chief being announced. Obama - investigation. So TSP will respond now. How?
US has to create disturbance inside the homogenous elite of the Pakistan military. This will change the status quo.
But this will take time and the pressure will build to change the leadership.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

There is a slight tear in the green curtain. Lower level officers who are more jihadi indoctrinated are questioning the seniors for loss of H&D of the TSPA and TSP because of the raid. There are multiple lamnets at inability to protect OBL and concurrent exposure of their weakness. Its a strategic surprise like the Ottomon retreat at Vienna. However world doesnt have 150 years for them to come to grips....
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Klaus »

A report prepared by Oxfam titled "No Time to lose" calls for international forces to place a suitable checks and balances system to curtail civilian deaths at the hands of local police and armed forces: Link

The report also states that the Taliban has been responsible for the most civilian deaths. IMO, it has come out at the right time, making the right noises so that NATO (specifically Unkil & UK) have an excuse to stay the course.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Klaus »

shyamd
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by shyamd »

A must read to pick up nuggets of what is happening. Keep in mind SSS is a ISI mouthpiece.
US broke deal with Osama hit
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

ISLAMABAD - Pakistan's military and intelligence community was fully aware of and lent assistance to the United States mission to get a high-value target in Abbottabad on May 2. What it did not know was that it was Osama bin Laden who was in the crosshairs of US Special Forces, and what angered the top brass even more was that Washington - in clear breach of an understanding - claimed sole ownership of the operation.

Over the years since Pakistan joined the US in the "war on terror" following the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 to oust the Taliban, the US has conducted numerous covert operations - apart from unleashing the missiles of unmanned Predator drones on militant targets - deep inside Pakistan.

For instance, the Los Angeles Times reported on July 27, 2008, "On occasions, US Special Forces teams have been sent into Pakistan. In 2006, one of the nation's most elite units, Seal Team 6, raided a suspected al-Qaeda compound at Damadola [in the Bajaur Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas]."

Under this arrangement, the US would conduct raids against high-value targets and Pakistan would provide the necessary support, but Pakistan, for political reasons so that nobody would question that its sovereignty had been compromised, would claim responsibility for the raids.

Following the assassination of Bin Laden, though, within a few hours US President Barack Obama in an address to the American nation said that US Navy Seals had single-handedly conducted the operation.

The incident over Raymond Davis, a contractor with the Central Intelligence Agency, strained the understanding between Pakistan and the US over covert operations.

Davis killed two armed men in Lahore in January and although the US said he was protected by diplomatic immunity, he was jailed and charged with murder. He was released in March after the families of the two killed men were paid US$2.4 million in blood money. Judges acquitted him on all charges and Davis immediately departed Pakistan.

Pakistan then demanded a fresh agreement with the US that would better serve its strategic gains; it is already a major recipient of US aid and arms sales - approximately US$20 billion over the past decade. The Americans in turn wanted the continued right to undertake strikes, but specifically against high-value targets such as Taliban leader Mullah Omar, Bin Laden, his deputy Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri and a leading figure in the Taliban resistance, Sirajuddin Haqqani.

The US sent four warning letters to the Pakistan army through diplomatic channels in which it expressed its reservations on Pakistan's cooperation in finding high-value sanctuaries. Pakistan responded by asking for better economic deals and a greater role in the Afghan end game.

The demands on both sides were such that international players were called in to mediate. These included top Saudi authorities and Prince Karim Aga Khan, the spiritual leader of the Shi'ite Ismaili community. They played a pivotal role in fostering a new strategic agreement of which the Abbottabad operation was a part. That is, Pakistan was on board but was kept in the dark over the target on the explicit understanding that it would take ownership.

The Saudis included ex-ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who had been sidelined for some years through illness and palace intrigue. He had helped resolve the Davis case and set the parameters for joint surgical strikes inside Pakistan against defiant al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders to pave the way for an end game in Afghanistan.

In the first week of April, the White House released a terror report charging Pakistan with being hand-in-glove with militants. Soon after, the director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja Pasha, went to the US for a very short visit that according to the Associated Press centered on "intelligence cooperation". Security sources confirmed to Asia Times Online that the new security arrangement was high on the agenda.

Pasha, instead of returning directly to Pakistan, stopped over in Paris where he met the Aga Khan, and then proceeded to Turkey for talks with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, who was in the country on an official visit, to appraise him of the new agreement.

In the last week of April, the US's top man in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus, met with Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani and informed him of the US Navy Seals operation to catch a high-value target. The deal was done.

Pakistan was therefore hugely stunned and embarrassed when Obama made his earth-shattering announcement taking all the credit for Osama's death.

In an address to parliament on Monday, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said that unilateral actions such as the US's killing of Bin Laden ran the risk of serious consequences, but he reiterated his earlier stance that the US Special Forces had reached the compound of Bin Laden in Abbottabad with the help of the ISI.

But White House Press Secretary Jay Carney made it clear that even if Pakistan asked for one, it would not receive an apology from the United States. "We obviously take the statements and concerns of the Pakistani government seriously, but we also do not apologize for the action that we took," Carney said.

Despite this setback, Asia Times Online contacts say the spat does not mean the end of operations - they will go on as agreed, with all credit taken by Pakistan.

"This relationship is too important to walk away from," Carney said this week.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief and author of upcoming book Inside al-Qaeda and the Taliban: Beyond Bin Laden and 9/11 published by Pluto Press, UK. He can be reached at [email protected]
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by sum »

PM to visit Afghanistan soon to gauge post-Laden equation: sources
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will visit Afghanistan in the near future to discuss security and development, a senior government official said on Wednesday, amid regional uncertainty following the death of Osama bin Laden.

Any quickening of the endgame in Afghanistan is a concern for India, which fears a U.S. withdrawal would leave it exposed to an unfriendly, Pakistan-dominated neighbourhood and unfettered militancy in its backyard.

The trip will be Singh's first visit to Afghanistan since 2005 and comes just over a week after bin Laden was killed by U.S. special forces in Pakistan.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity and declined to provide an exact date for the visit, said India was interested in hearing Afghan President Hamid Karzai's views on the killing of bin Laden.

“Obviously, the situation post the killing of bin Laden is of concern to all of us, and we would like to hear what Mr Karzai has to say,” the official told reporters.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by JE Menon »

FYI: New-Fields is based in the UAE I think...
___________________________________
Washington, DC - May 09, 2011 - New-Fields announced today further speakers for the 3rd Afghanistan Aviation & Defense Summit which takes place in Washington D.C. from July 7-8, 2011.

In addition to speakers previously announced, the following high- ranking officers and senior Afghan government officials confirmed to speak at the 3rd AADS, include:

* Zahir Azimi, Spokesperson to the Ministry of Defense - Ministry of Defense

Mohammad Zahir Azimi is the official spokesman for the Afghan National Army. He was promoted to the position by Commander-in-Chief of the Afghan Army, Bismillah Khan Mohammadi following the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in 2002.

* H.E. Taj Ayubi, Minister Adviser to the President on International Relations – Office of the President

Taj Ayubi is the Minister Advisor of the President of Afghanistan on International Relations. In that position, he advises President Hamid Karzai on goals like reducing armed conflicts, increasing international cooperation, terrorism, as well as religious and ethnic conflicts.

* Murtaza Bahrami, Commercial Attaché - Embassy of Afghanistan

Mohammad Murtaza Bahrami joined the Afghan Foreign Service in October of 2007 and currently serves as the Embassy’s Trade and Investment Officer.
A commercial attaché is a person posted to a foreign embassy to
promote the economic interests of his home country.

* Humayun Hamidzada, Deputy Minister for Policy – Ministry of Finance

Humayun Hamidzada is Afghanistan’s Deputy Minister of Finance for Policy, responsible for all policy issues that include overseeing the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) and its implementation through an inter-ministerial clusters mechanism. He is also designated head of the Civilian Technical Assistance Program
(CTAP) from within the Government of Afghanistan. Prior to his current position, Mr. Hamidzada served the President of Afghanistan as Chief Spokesman and Director of Communications from 2007 to late 2009.


Other senior Afghan government officials confirmed to speak include:

* Abdul Haleem Wahidi, Director of Counter Narcotics
Trust Fund/GPI
* Mohammad Ibrahim Azhar, Deputy Minister for Finance
& Planning Ministry of Counter Narcotics
* Abdullah Nabi, Sr. Business Adviser to NATO-ISAF
International Security Assistance Force
* Mohammad Yaqub Ahmadzai, Deputy Minister of Border
Affairs, Ministry of Borders & Tribal Affairs
* Sayed Kabir Zewari, Technical Manager in Airports
Project Implementation Unit Ministry of Transport and
Civil Aviation
* Mohammad Amin Khaliqi, Deputy Project Manager,
Ministry of Finance
* Fazelullah Stanekzai, Senior Finance Officer,
Ministry of Finance
* Mohammad Qahir Haidari, Deputy Chief-of-Staff,
Office of the President
* Mahmood Shah Habibi, FAA Management Specialist,
Federal Aviation Administration

The 3rd AADS is expected to draw over hundreds of prominent people who will you meet at the summit, include:
* High-ranking Military Commanders from Afghanistan
Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Interior
* Officials from International Government Security
and Defense Agencies
* Senior Industry Executives from Defense Companies
* Prime Contractors for Afghan Projects
* Senior Directors and Government Advisors

Afghan officials who confirmed their participation will conduct one- to-one meeting with delegates that may provide insights and analysis on the current challenges facing Afghanistan’s security and stability and nation’s terrorism, narcotics & insurgencies.

Scheduled meetings are on first-come, first-served basis.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by shravan »

Five killed in Pak-Afghan border clash
May 12, 2011
PESHAWAR: Five people were killed in a cross-border clash between Pakistani tribesmen and Afghan forces on Thursday.

Sources said that the clashes began after the Afghan National Army carried out unprovoked firing in the Lawa Mandi area on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Three of those killed are reported to local tribesmen and two Afghan army men, local security officials said.

There has been no official confirmation on why the clash erupted and authorities are trying to control the situation.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by BhairavP »

sum wrote:PM to visit Afghanistan soon to gauge post-Laden equation: sources
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will visit Afghanistan in the near future to discuss security and development, a senior government official said on Wednesday, amid regional uncertainty following the death of Osama bin Laden.

Any quickening of the endgame in Afghanistan is a concern for India, which fears a U.S. withdrawal would leave it exposed to an unfriendly, Pakistan-dominated neighbourhood and unfettered militancy in its backyard.

The trip will be Singh's first visit to Afghanistan since 2005 and comes just over a week after bin Laden was killed by U.S. special forces in Pakistan.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity and declined to provide an exact date for the visit, said India was interested in hearing Afghan President Hamid Karzai's views on the killing of bin Laden.

“Obviously, the situation post the killing of bin Laden is of concern to all of us, and we would like to hear what Mr Karzai has to say,” the official told reporters.
He's already in Afghanistan today.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by sum »

^^ Was the low profile kept to ensure safety of the flight of PM etc?
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by sum »

Welcome to your second home: Karzai to Dr Singh
"Welcome to your second home". This is how President Hamid Karzai [ Images ] welcomed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh n Kabul on Thursday, with the latter responding by assuring the Afghan leader that India [ Images ] will stand with the country through "thick and thin".

Dr Singh, who arrived earlier on a two-day visit to the Afghan capital, was given a ceremonial reception by the Afghan police, the army and the air force in the grand presidential palace 'The Arg'.

"This is a tremendous honour for the Afghan people to welcome His Excellency Dr Manmohan Singh, prime minister of India, to second home Afghanistan," said Karzai while welcoming Dr Singh.

The prime minister, in turn, described India and Afghanistan as 'partners in progress'.

"It is always a great honour and privilege to visit you. That you have invited me to visit is an honour to entire people of India," he said.

"India and Afghanistan are partners in progress and we will stand by you through thick and thin, and we reaffirm our solidarity with the people and government of Afghanistan," he told the Afghan president at the reception at the palace.

The Afghan President also hosted a banquet in honour of the prime minister.

The presidential palace, known as the 'The Arg', houses the president's office, his residence, and the office of the Afghan national security adviser.

The presidential complex also houses the home of Afghanistan's last king Zahir Shah, where Dr Singh is staying.

Dr Singh is the first foreign head of government for whom the late king Zahir Shah's home has been thrown open.
Lots of khujli will be happening in some unnamed neighboring S.Asian country...
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by CRamS »

Haven't see any coverage of MMS's visit in US media either. The self obsession of US is absolutely shocking. This is what in part fuels the resentment against US from both allies and foes alike.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Johann »

CRamS wrote:Haven't see any coverage of MMS's visit in US media either. The self obsession of US is absolutely shocking. This is what in part fuels the resentment against US from both allies and foes alike.
Well said.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Pratyush »

CRS,

Why should the US Media care about the actions of the foreign head of state? Is it just because the headless DDM does so?
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by gokulvarmank »

CRamS wrote:Haven't see any coverage of MMS's visit in US media either. The self obsession of US is absolutely shocking. This is what in part fuels the resentment against US from both allies and foes alike.
Frankly India is not considered as quite that significant a nation by USA. Sure they mollycuddle us and occasionally "praise" us calling "emerging super power" but I am sure no one mistakes the Govt of India as a potent player in the world stage. Especially not the rubber stamp PM like MMS.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by CRamS »

Pratyush wrote:CRS,

Why should the US Media care about the actions of the foreign head of state? Is it just because the headless DDM does so?
Come on, I am sick and tired of this crap that US cares about its interest onlee and whats the big deal. I have no issue with this kind of "kiss my arse" arrogance when it comes to US obsession with football, and "world series" baseball and other crap. But we are talking about the future of Afganisthan that is the reason d'taire for all this GWOT in the first palce. And here is India trying to bring stability so that it is not a haven for suicidal pigs who conducted 9/11 and 26/11. So it is disgusting that US does not even talk about it. It should get off its pompous arse, think outside its self-importance obsession and show a little collaborative spirt and humility. And its well-fed, well sexed, well-paid media toadies should live up to their "free press" ideals instead of serving as a propaganda mouthpiece for the govt all the tme. It can go a long way.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Johann »

Television (with the exception of PBS and CSPAN) including the cable news channels is for the masses, who are often uninterested in state visits by the political leader of any country, unless they have some serious glamour or controversy attached to them.

What is much more important are the newspapers read by the ruling classes - NYT, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal- and to a lesser extent LA Times and Christian Science Monitor. The next layer of commentary are the blogs and journals, whether partisan or non-partisan.

These are the places where actual policy is really subjected to serious public debate, and the number of Americans who chose to be engaged is vanishingly small. They arent kept out - they chose to opt out. Many more prefer partisan semi-informative, self-obsessed blather on cable and talk radio where the Republicans and Democrats fight out their domestic battles. The majority only consume local television and radio news about school budget disputes, traffic jams, murders and rescued animals. Besides overseas disasters the only thing that usually resonates is when local military units leave for overseas or return.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by NRao »

Marut
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Marut »

wrt to MMS visit to Afg, there has been a lot of commitment from India towards the development of Afghanistan and continued support towards rebuilding and establishment of law & order facilities. Apart from this, there has also been a lot of discussion abt post OBL status of Afg. Afg is sure of US scale down of troops and support. They don't want Pak nosing in. Request had been made for security assistance some time ago. With OBL gone, there was repeat request. khanate has also blessed this. Word is we are seriously considering it - chaiwallah says we won't do token deployment. we are looking at nearly 50k troops at least, mostly RR types and some SF units as well. T55 and some arty will also go. helos and some AF will accompany as well to support the group. Dual purpose - secure Afg and train their troops. khans are providing $$$ and ivan will give supply route. will share more when details come in.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by RamaY »

^
I said this on Dec 4th, 2009
The brophet in my brain (who says I am that) says this –

Ombaba’s 2011 plan could be this
- Start with a surge. Pacify the Phuk-Af border areas.
- Nato surge will keep the peace in heart-lands
- India will train INA

In 2011, Amrikhan will hand over the control to UN, while keeping a couple of military bases for himself and NATO. Indiski will enter the theater under UN aegis as the commanding partner, and uses INA as the front end.

For this strategy to work, India must be ensured about three things by unkil khan.
- Complete control and lock out of puki crown jewels under Amrikhan’s Musharraf. I see 10%’s handover of the (unworthy) keys to groper from this angle.
- Pacification of Paki claims on POK.
- Destruction of terrorist infrastructure in Paki heart land. Would this include ISI?
On Dec11, 2009
Jarita-ji

Nothing innovative in that write-up. The person behind the blog is a common confused US citizen.

There are better strategies to solve the Af-Pak problem permanently, depending on what the US’s long-term vision is. For example:
- US Can stop its financial and military aid to Pakistan. Divert all that aid to Afghanistan so it can build a strong army and civic/industrial infrastructure.
- Support India’s stand on J&K and influence Pakistan to give up POK.
- Destroy all known terrorist camps within Pakistan.
- Support Afghanistan’s stand on Durand Line. Put all its forces in Af-Pak border and stop the terror-tourism from Pakistan in to Afghanistan.
On Jan21, 2010
How feasible it is to bring these selected Afghan police/army cadets to India for training in batches? India can charge suitable amount of money from US/NATO for these resources and make it a worthwhile exercise for these forces, w.r.t education and training?
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by sum »

chaiwallah says we won't do token deployment. we are looking at nearly 50k troops at least, mostly RR types and some SF units as well. T55 and some arty will also go. helos and some AF will accompany as well to support the group
Will Indians also take guarantees from US that there wont be terror mischief from TSP since so many troops will be relocated from J&K/Pak border?

Also, given that the Indian troops will not bother hitting Paki sanctuaries when their patrols come under attack ( if posted in Afg), wont the Pakis have a field day ambushing Indian patrols and scooting back to Pak ( situation similar to early 90s near LoC till India fenced everything) ?
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

RamaY, I think clown jewels are with uncle already since quite some time. Or else Osmanabad raid wouldn't have happened. Very good chance for TSP mistaking it for Indian raid and throw one at SDRE. Didnt happen. Its not due to communciations, threats etc but defacto coralling the assets.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by RamaY »

^ A corollary to that would be, any nuke attack on India is a non-state actor job by USA.

Does Indian retaliatory attack account for that?
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Marut »

sum wrote: Will Indians also take guarantees from US that there wont be terror mischief from TSP since so many troops will be relocated from J&K/Pak border?

Also, given that the Indian troops will not bother hitting Paki sanctuaries when their patrols come under attack ( if posted in Afg), wont the Pakis have a field day ambushing Indian patrols and scooting back to Pak ( situation similar to early 90s near LoC till India fenced everything) ?
I don't know right now abt what guarantees are promised and how it will be enforced. But khan wants to thin its presence, concentrate personnel at few locations and go after keedas and taliban(good, bad & the ugly) inside and outside Afg. India will fill the vacuum at the request of Afg govt. We will train the Afg forces and backstop the khans in their hunt, hence some SF detachments also going in. Btw Afg doesn't recognize Durand line ;)
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Rahul M »

possible timeline ?
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by RajeshA »

X-Posting from TIRP Thread
Suppiah wrote:Wonder if this latest run riot is stage managed by Kiya-nahi to impress his American masters that they are victims onlee...after all poor Abduls have always been canon fodder for Pakjabi elite..who cares if another 72 is gone to see their 72...

Anyway my cup runneth over...rapist goon traitors shown the door, one big anti-hindu septic tank cleaned up in TN, now this one...what a way to celebrate a Friday evening with JD ...
Suppiah ji,

Indeed the whole terror campaign about to start, or just started, in Pakistan is all a dog and pony show! There is so much pressure from Amreeka now to come clean and to give up their strategic assets like Ayman Al-Zawahiri, Mullah Mohammed Omar and Sirajudeen Haqqani, that Pakistani Army feels only a terror campaign against Pakistan by the Jihadis for giving up Osama bin Laden would suffice as an excuse for not taking any action.

If the Pakistani Army really wants to convince the world that these are "non-state" actors terrorizing Pakistan, only a successful attempt on the life of Kiyani and of at least a handful of crore commanders can help! Anything less than that and it would seem all a bloody joke by the Pakjabi Army commanders to deflect responsibility, especially as FC lives are worth nothing.

In fact, BRF should start a campaign to highlight the macabre "sacrifice" of the Pakistani Army due to their Global War on Terror. Pakistanis often brag about how many soldiers they have lost in the war on terror, and that no other country has lost so many men in arms as Pakistan. Most of those lost were from the Frontier Corps! That is a paramilitary force which is given step-motherly treatment by the Pakistani Army. In fact, men are recruited to the Frontier Corps as cheap fodder, either to do the bidding of the Pakistani Army; or to wean away fighting men from the tribal Pushtun militias; or to act as cannon fodder for the Taliban militias, just so that Taliban end up using their resources on other Pushtuns and not have any spare for the Pakjabi Army; or to present as figures to the Americans as Pakistani casualties in the War on Terror, even as the Pakjabi Army itself does not lose any Pakjabi soldiers, at least none from the elite class.

Next time some Musharraf or Kiyani or Gilani parrot the line that Pakistanis have lost many soldiers, etc. in the war on terror, somebody should ask them how many of them were low-paid Pushtuns, whose death means nothing to the Pakjabi Jernails!

BRF should in fact turn the tables on Pakistani Army when they make great claims about their "sacrifices". BRF should always repeat that the Pakjabi Army has only offered a handful of soldiers, that too at the hands of those who had a bone to grind against the Pakistani Army for issues internal to Pakistan and had nothing to do with War on Terror. All other deaths were of Pushtuns. In fact, Pakistani Army has been sacrificing only Pushtun lives by design! The Pushtuns have borne the brunt of the War on Terror, while the Pakjabi Jernails have only fattened themselves by several billions.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Vashishtha »

chaiwallah says we won't do token deployment. we are looking at nearly 50k troops at least, mostly RR types and some SF units as well. T55 and some arty will also go. helos and some AF will accompany as well to support the group
Now this is some interesting news!!!

Possible consequences however include Taliban striking in India...A LOT MORE BLOODY terrorist attacks...
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Rahul M »

taliban striking inside India ? really ? how ?
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Vashishtha »

^^I meant, since we will be helping out the afghan army and US forces root out the Taliban, ISI will find an easy excuse to divert taliban to anti-india activities(more overtly)...may not be taliban itself all the time, they could transfer some of their troops to LET, JUD......and so on....

for example: a major terrorist strike in india, the government points fingers at the pakis, and they conveniently point theirs at the talibs and how we 'incited' them by landing our troops in afg........
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Rahul M »

how is any of that different from what we already face ? taliban has zero capability to carry out an ice-cream theft inside India, let alone "LOT MORE BLOODY terrorist attacks". they are an insurgent force which is capable ONLY when operating amongst local support in regions they know well.

a terrorist attack is completely different from what taliban is good at. as for pakis getting excuses, is that even a factor ? since when have they run out of excuses ? whether we send forces to afg is a separate issue but is there any reason we should decide our own steps depending on whether pakistan can fashion an excuse out of it ?
this mindless dhoti shivering has to stop.
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