News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 07 May 2011 18:39

saip wrote:According to Osama's wife, she and Osama just went into the bedroom and 'Switched off the lights'. That puts an end to the rumor that power has been cut off to Abbotabad area by Pakis. But still some DDMs insist on referring to the Xinxua's story. Why?

http://www.samachar.com/Osama-had-just- ... jehga.html

Amal al-Sadah has told officials that she had just moved with her husband to their bedroom and switched off the lights when they heard gunshots.

Before Osama could reach out for his Kalashnikov, the commandos burst in and shot him, she said, reported Dawn.

http://www.samachar.com/India-acts-matu ... cgdje.html

quote]It is that at least a section of the Pakistan Army was aware of Operation Geronimo, which was why power supply was switched off in Abbottabad
/quote]

Because the loyalty of many in the Indian Press is not nessecarily towards India.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 May 2011 18:44

Anujan wrote:....................................
Now Pakis could have helped in an *individual capacity*. Did some ISI/Army higher up sell out for a few greenbacks, a gori motorma and a green card? I will bet my left testimonial that they did. The increased "contacts" between mid-level intelligence/army types starting 10 years back means that a vast fraction of them are higher ups now.

.......................... The most likely explanation is that Massa has penetrated the Army/ISI, from which they are getting *information* and not relying on them for ops. They have had 10 years to do this.

The gratifying outcome for me is, the Army and ISI is now going to go on a witch hunt and turn on themselves to identify these moles.

Of all the theories doing the rounds, this one resonates with me, not the least because it is the simplest explanation.

I'd add the question: Why would the Yanks risk a special ops in an urban/ town environment, in the heart of a Pakistani military complex?

So many things can easily go wrong and you have a 'black hawk down' disaster in a heartbeat. Obama's presidency could have been impacted, the US could have lost all vestiges of authority over the Pakistanis. When you look at it, the risks were simply colossal.

My answer - They already Osama was there. The prize had to justify the huge risks.

And, IMO, the only way they would know for certain is that someone in the Pakistani establishment told them, as you opine.

Tracking couriers, satellite photos, technology, are all supplemental, and perhaps red herrings IMO.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 May 2011 18:49

saip wrote:According to Osama's wife, she and Osama just went into the bedroom and 'Switched off the lights'. That puts an end to the rumor that power has been cut off to Abbotabad area by Pakis. But still some DDMs insist on referring to the Xinxua's story. Why?

http://www.samachar.com/Osama-had-just- ... jehga.html

Amal al-Sadah has told officials that she had just moved with her husband to their bedroom and switched off the lights when they heard gunshots.

Before Osama could reach out for his Kalashnikov, the commandos burst in and shot him, she said, reported Dawn.

Story doesn't reconcile with other accounts. The US claims this was a 40 minute op, with Osama being killed in the last 10 minutes or so (IIRC).

So how is it that she says they had just moved to their bedroom and switched off the lights, like it was just another day, when the commandos came in?

Mind you, her version could make more sense; if the priority was to get Osama they'd have wanted to burst on him without warning, which is what her she seems to suggest.

Edit- of course at this stage her story is likely coming out via the Pakistani authorities.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 07 May 2011 18:51

For what it is worth:
http://www.juancole.com/2011/05/taliban ... death.html

There is evidence of a collapse of morale from Afghanistan. Pajhwok News Agency is reporting that in the wake of the death of Usama bin Laden at the hands of US Navy SEALs, Taliban guerrillas in the northeastern Afghan province of Qunduz are fleeing the province.

It appears that the Taliban were still linked to, and perhaps taking direction from, al-Qaeda, more than most analysts had suspected. It also appears that Bin Laden had more of an operational, strategizing role than we had thought.

If it is true that radicals are fleeing Qunduz, and indeed other provinces as well, and heading for safe havens in places like North Waziristan in Pakistan’s lawless tribal belt, it is likely primarily because they had direct contact with Usama Bin Laden and now fear that information about them is in American hands, since the SEALS captured his hard drives and thumb drives.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 May 2011 19:06

Based on the wife's story, I'll throw in my own do taka worth of theorizing in the ring.

There was a US special ops group already on the ground that had killed Osama, and was clearing out the house afterwards. The copters with other SEAL operatives came in soon after as support and pick up.

In my scenario, this special ops group was been inserted over days and weeks in a nearby location, and attacked the compound from the ground. The copters were synchronized to come in as soon as the firefight started.

My reasoning:

The wife suggests - from saip's linked story above, linked again below- that Osama was surprised:

Amal al-Sadah has told officials that she had just moved with her husband to their bedroom and switched off the lights when they heard gunshots.

Before Osama could reach out for his Kalashnikov, the commandos burst in and shot him, she said, reported Dawn.

http://www.samachar.com/Osama-had-just- ... jehga.html

If this is true (it is coming to us via the Pakistanis), why would Osama have been surprised? In the US version of events, he would certainly have heard the copters coming in, and would have had at least a few minutes warning.

saip · Post by **saip** » 07 May 2011 19:08

Baikul:

Where did you hear that Osama was killed in the last ten minutes of the raid? I would have thought he was killed in the first few minutes of the raid, which explains why he could not even get to his AK47. The rest of the time must have been spent by the SEALS to search the site, gather all the stuff and move it to the helis.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 07 May 2011 19:13

The MSNBC videos also state that this particular wife never left the top 2 floors of the house for *the entire* time she lived there. I do not know the specific piskological effects of such long-time confinement but I can say with a certain degree of confidence that there is bound to be heavy distortion, alternative realities and hallucinations running around in her mind, this effect is more pronounced in women.

Not accusing her of anything here as she has nothing to lose, AFAIK.

OBL would have been killed in the last 10 minutes if the SEALS climbed up the stairs and encountered resistance, OTOH the wife (al-Sadah's) statement seems to suggest a top-down attack with a roof landing.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 07 May 2011 19:14

It is also possible, that instead of the AQ link, the "fleeing Taliban" are worried that parts of the ISI and PA has betrayed. They would be equally or more concerned about the PA and ISI handlers. Their moves could be tactical. They will relocate and sit tight. Any subsequent action on them or their old haunts would give out which handler has been compromised and how much. If I was their commander I would have relocated them in ways which would have helped to identify the structure of the betryal or compromise from the hits.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 07 May 2011 19:17

India TV showing that Osama was living in Pakistan since 2003. Revealed by osama's ayesha.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 May 2011 19:20

saip wrote:Baikul:

Where did you hear that Osama was killed in the last ten minutes of the raid? I would have thought he was killed in the first few minutes of the raid, which explains why he could not even get to his AK47. The rest of the time must have been spent by the SEALS to search the site, gather all the stuff and move it to the helis.

saip - here goes one source:

http://articles.cnn.com/2011-05-02/worl ... s=PM:WORLD

The official said the forces had to fight their way through the first floor of the three-story building, where two adult males lived.

Bin Laden and his family lived on the second and third floors, and they were cleared last, with bin Laden killed in the last five or 10 minutes of the siege, the official said.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 May 2011 19:29

Anujan wrote:What I meant to imply was huge fortified self-sufficient "American territory" ala Gitmo. I dont mean massive number of *people*. But enough to sustain helos, drones and Spec Ops.

In fact I was referring to the same concept; fortified, self sufficient zones ('forts' so to speak) are generally regarded as a discredited military strategy, to the best of my knowledge. But this is OT, and we can discuss it elsewhere.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 May 2011 19:33

SHQ found these and wanted to inform.

From Reuter's Blog.....

http://blogs.reuters.com/the-deep-end/2 ... or-to-obl/

All hypocrites from the West-from US,UK or Canada-you hypocrites show map of India with separate borders for Jammu Kashmir.

You have ba**s or wherewithall to show the Occupied Tibet within China in separate borders?

You have nurtured for 63 years and created the terrorist monster called Pakistan. Yet you western hypocrites have sided with terrorists in trying to undermine India in every possible way. Syed Ali Geelani, your Kashmiri “freedom fighter” is inviting special prayers for Osama Bin Laden today. May be you all should join.
Posted by netizen | Report as abusive

and

Claudia Parsons, I wish you had consulted more reviewers before releasing this paper. As just one example, the summary box on “Pakistan’s Troubled History” misses a few important points.

1. The 1971 war led Pakistan’s leadership to three important actions, of which you have listed only two: “[...] This ultimately led to its support for militant proxies. It also turned to a more militant brand of Islam to rally the country.” The third was the decision to go nuclear. Whoopsie, that’s an omission that’s inexcusable in a piece like this.

2. Was Musharraf’s coup the only major event of 1999? Do you remember a little incident called Kargil?

The next time you want some facts on Pakistan, ask an Indian. We have long memories.

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 May 2011 19:36

As the house is so close to a major training camp for TSPA terrorists, it is possible OBL & Co ignored the chopper noise until too late as such flights may be common enough. By which time (perhaps even earlier), Unkil would have kept the whole area under watch thru' drones or other means....even satellites can be repositioned to hover over there..

Had it been a cave he would have heard and suspected the worst..

BTW Mansoor Ejaz wanted pre-ponment of Obama trip to Pakbarian lands...now Osama is POSTponing it!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 May 2011 19:39

The tweet guy said helis in Abbotabad are very rare and most likely bad news.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 May 2011 19:44

Even without noise suppression features, how early can a guy holed up in a window-less room or building hear the choppers and register panic...2,3,5,10 minutes? I guess 5 min max...by which time they must surely be in the visual line of sight of Infra-red or other cameras on board the choppers...

Mind you they never had phones, and no vehicle was reported in the premises. Which means all he can do is run on foot...for a 6ft 4inch guy, that is not easy thing to do even in a land of tall marital race pure araps.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 07 May 2011 19:48

A Pakistani man leans against a wall bearing the graffiti 'Osama bin Town' near the hideout house of slain Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden following his death by US Special Forces in a ground operation in Abbottabad May 6, 2011. Pakistan's military demanded the US reduce its troop presence in the country to a 'minimum' as the fallout from the killing of Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden intensified. After days of questions in Washington over how bin Laden could find shelter in the town of Abbottabad, army chief of staff General Ashfar Kayani threatened to 'review' cooperation with the US in the event of another similar raid.

SOURCE

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 May 2011 19:58

Lets think through the next steps in Af-Pak after OBL:
- Pasha/token personnel changes to restore trust deficit
- Mullah Omar etc brought into line or else fate will be SEALed
- Good Taliban brought into Kabul
- Karzai regime stabilized
- US leaves/reduces to insure regime stability
- If US leaves Good Taliban reveal themselves as Bad Taliban
- TSP gets more funds and military goods from US to offset force improvements like MRCA etc by India
- US in Kabul and PRC in POK are to ensure no Indian interference
- US saves TSP and Muslim world

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 07 May 2011 20:14

As per SOP, we will soon hear 3.5 leader of Al-Q or taliban arrested and handed over to US.
I think the best bet is that TSP will hand over Mullah Omar or Zwahiri to US to prove its credentials as a loyal puppy. Of course would depend upon how far Mullah O or Z can run from TSP handlers if they are already not in the custody.
Just Pasha resigning from ISI or firing couple of guys is not going to satisfy anyone in US Govt. TSP has been caught with its pants down and US govt is not going to let them pull it up till they have their share of Gubo.

Having said that, now the moves would be made to bring in Good taliban into discussion fold as AL-Q chief is dead and everyone can go back to drawing board with new strategies.

Aditya G · Post by **Aditya G** » 07 May 2011 20:26

abhijitm wrote: In last couple of days I am literally swinging between 'ISI was informed' and 'ISI was kept in dark'. Its impossible to know the fact ...

Sure, the ISI may not know where Osama was - but dont tell me they did not know that the CIA was camping in a house close to him watching him with telescopes and other spy wizardry. For those officers to be on site for long duration requires support which must have been given by local ISI/Pak Army establishment.

Me thinks that Pakis only did not know the timing or intention of the raid - but had infact kept Osama under house arrest in military cantonment and knew CIA was also watching him to prevent escape.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 07 May 2011 20:33

Nevermind!

Aditya G · Post by **Aditya G** » 07 May 2011 20:36

Hmmm not sure what you understood from my post: I find it impossible for Pakistan not to know where Osama was. Does it make them the 'good guys'?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 07 May 2011 20:37

Previous whereabouts of OBL:
http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/07/osama-li ... -wife.html

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 07 May 2011 20:40

So it starts!
Afghanistan: Fierce fighting follows Kandahar attack

Intense fighting is taking place in Afghanistan's second city of Kandahar amid co-ordinated militant attacks, including at least six suicide bombs.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 07 May 2011 20:59

X posting from the Pakistan thread;

A_Gupta wrote:Once the Afghan Taliban leaders are safely ensconced in Kabul, after an American departure, and with Pakistani help, all bets are off; I don't see why they will be any more biddable than their Pakistani brethren.

The Afghan Taliban has never been 'safely ensconced' anywhere - they have always had to fight, and Pakistan has always been there to help them in those fights.

From 1996 to 2001 Pakistani armed forces personnel and Pakistani channeling of Gulf money were key to pushing the Northern Alliance to the brink of defeat.

The only way for the US to reduce its troop strength in Afghanistan without seeing it overrun by foreign and Pakistani jihadis again is to arm and fund strong local allies.

Unless the Afghan Taliban switches to a political mode, this American role means the Afghan Taliban will have to rely even more on other powers for help fighting its enemies. That would guarantee powerful leverage to Pakistan as long as it is able and willing to play that role.

Will Obama continue to show the same courage and insight, and saw away further at the Gordian Knot by killing Mullah Omar and Haqqani wherever in Pakistan they may be?

If he does, then one of two things will happen: Pakistan will break its alliance with America in order to save its relationship with the Afghan Taliban, or the Afghan Taliban and the Pakiban will merge and take on the PA. Either choice would unleash profound violence and change within Pakistan.

Losing the 'alliance', dishonest as it is, means losing 50% of the supply line to Afghanistan, and losing direct access to events in Pakistan. I cant see Obama acting unless he was reasonably sure that the PA would -however reluctantly- sell their strategic investment in Afghanistan via the Taliban and Haqqanis for money when compelled by American fait accompli.

Nesoj · Post by **Nesoj** » 07 May 2011 21:01

Lieutenant-General Ahmad Shuja Pasha was chosen to lead the ISI in 2008 because he was seen a a liberal man who believed in the eradication of religious extremists in FATA and other areas of Pakistan.
In 2008 the decision to replace Lieutenant-General Nadeem Taj with General Pasha came after intense US pressure. In October 2008, Gen. Taj was moved out of the ISI — but rewarded with charge of a prestigious Corps the Lahore-based 11 Infantry Division, and also the commandant of the Pakistan Military Academy in Kakul. Gen. General Taj found himself in trouble with the American when in 2008, President George W. Bush was reported to have complained that it had become “impossible to share intelligence on the al-Qaeda and the Taliban with Pakistan because it goes straight back to the militants.

Interesting .... coincidence ?????

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 07 May 2011 21:05

Aditya G wrote:Hmmm not sure what you understood from my post: I find it impossible for Pakistan not to know where Osama was. Does it make them the 'good guys'?

Oh yeah..sorry. My apologies. I read it like Pakistan worked with the CIA or something.

Aaryan · Post by **Aaryan** » 07 May 2011 21:12

If any one is watching times now, arnab is asking same questions to Musharaf, ( 9:25- 9:35 pm) that i asked and was called, ignorent, paki and even warned by a genius to refrain from littering.. I hope u guys now listen to him and dont call arnab a paki, ignorent and blame him of littering garbage..

Ps: ready for nest round of insults..

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 07 May 2011 21:17

Porkistan has times now channel?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 May 2011 21:27

Mushy will be the bigger fish they fry. Pasha is the ISI guy now. So there you have the little fish and big fish.

Once Mushy gets it, it will have its own dynamics.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 May 2011 21:28

Aaryan wrote:If any one is watching times now, arnab is asking same questions to Musharaf, ( 9:25- 9:35 pm) that i asked and was called, ignorent and even warned by a genius to refrain from littering.. I hope u guys now listen to him and dont call arnab a paki, ignorent and blame him of littering garbage..

Ps: ready for nest round of insults..

I tried watching Times Now and when I heard that Musharraf was to be interviewed I came off to BR. I can't understand why Times Now wants to interview that murderer of Indians on prime time. Musharraf is an international nobody. Arnab has lost it while trying to get ratings for Times Now.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 May 2011 21:45

News from March 2011

http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/20 ... tting_busy

Asia Times Online on 24 March published an article by Syed Saleem Shahzad, who is an insightful commentator on South Asian affairs, as well as the publication's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He has studied al Qaida a long time. He wrote that US intelligence has actionable information that Osama bin Laden has been "criss-crossing" the Pakistan -- Afghanistan border region in northwestern Pakistan during the past few weeks.

Shahzad wrote that US officials are "stunned" by bin Laden's visibility and the frequency of his movements. Bin Laden's purposes are not known. Terrorist analysts reportedly think the new level of activity means bin Laden is planning another large attack, though the 9/11 planning was actually not done by bin Laden. The South Asia analysts think he is meeting with friendly Afghan warlords to bring the Afghan War to a favorable conclusion for the Taliban.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 07 May 2011 21:49

Johann:

Looking at it from India's POV, can TSP continue to be a pain in India's arse if it were forced to hand over their other prized assets to US: Mullah Omar & Haqqani. In other words, even if US lets them keep LeT, would TSP's strenght and morale be sapped sufficiently by giving up their other assets?

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 07 May 2011 22:01

CRS,

Abbottabad type take-out of Haqqani or Omar will basically speed up the rupture of the TSP-jihadi tenuous alliance. When S. Waziristan was raided under Unkil's pressure, TSPA ensured that only low level thugs got caught or killed while letting the top guys go. Even then, they faced some brutal blowback. Remember the mosque attack in Rawalpindi? The Talipakis came there and singled out the children of serving Generals. The son of the Waziristan op commander was picked up and in front of others, they lifted his head by the hair and blew it to bits.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 07 May 2011 22:13

R-man,

thx. Man oh man, TSP is definetly on tenterhooks. At some point, they will have to use their only "trump card" if you want to call it that: lash out against India. I don't know where all the piss crap that MMS is embarking upon will take India. I hope he doesn't give away too much and assist TSP in their final show down with India.

As much as Unkil wants in to rope in the "good Taliban" and give TSP a stake in the Afghan end game, any scenarion where US lets TSP keep mullah Omar and Haqqani in any final deal? I haven't heard this from even the pro-Paki worst nut cases in DC like WP's Ignatious or Fair or anyone. Question is short of taking these 2 out, is there any way US can fudge & spin their way out by having TSP keep these 2?

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 07 May 2011 22:17

CRamS wrote:Johann:

can TSP continue to be a pain in India's arse if it were forced to hand over their other prized assets to US: Mullah Omar & Haqqani. In other words, even if US lets them keep LeT, would TSP's strenght and morale be sapped sufficiently by giving up their other assets?

TSP will continue to be a pain in India`s arse forever(till its dirty existence).. We should just be very happy that US and TSP are pain in each others arse too...And hope that US gives TSP royal pain till the time we join.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 07 May 2011 22:18

TSP's brazen arrogance comes from its possession of nukes. It thinks it can gamble & get away.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13318673

A few days after the Pakistani tests a government minister explained one of the reasons that decision was taken.

"We are a now nuclear state," he said. "So no-one can let us go bust. We may have turned down billions of dollars. But many more billions will follow."

How right he was.

saip · Post by **saip** » 07 May 2011 22:19

Thus, for around two-and-a-half hours, they were radar-visible over Pakistan or (if we are gullible enough to accept the fantasy that our radar was ‘jammed’ by some science-fictional Yankee device) they were at least visible to the swarms of satellites circling in our skies.

http://dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?pa ... 2011_pg3_2

He is not the first guy to talk about 'swarms of satellites' in Paki papers. Now, do they really believe (out side Hollywood movies) that satellites can provide realtime videos of what is happening on the ground? Then again definitely not Pakis who AFAIK have one single solitary second hand satellite that is operational less than half the time.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 May 2011 22:22

CRS,
It could be some smoke and mirrors. The lashing at India might not work this time.

Haqqani network will be the one they will try to get. Omar is needed as Ghilzai chieftain to bring them to table.

also at the high level :
The Pakjabi Army did not protect the Muhajir.

OBL = Muhajir not a native to area

Either incompetence or betrayal or in between. Still end result is the above conclusion.

saip · Post by **saip** » 07 May 2011 22:44

Home video of OSAMA released!

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/0 ... 1&iref=BN1

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 07 May 2011 22:44

Link

Interesting TV program from TSP. Ayaz Amir says, "Americans nay hamara aukaat sabko dikhaa diya aur humsay yeh hazam nahin ho raha hai"