Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 2010)

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VikramS
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by VikramS »

ShyamSP wrote:
VikramS wrote:
On average a home owner moves once every seven years so it is very rare for a mortgage to be held for 30 years. That is one reason why 30year mortgages are linked to 10 year notes. Even if the note is held to maturity the duration is much less; the you add the chance of repayment and the realized duration is even smaller (10 years)
That is not correct. 30-year mortgage roughly equals to ~13 year fixed bond and so 10-year treasury comparison is done for mortgages.
Heh....?

30 year mortgage duration is roughly 13 years at current interest rates. Add the odds of repayment and you end up with a 10 year equivalence. So what is not correct??

Most home owners especially first time home owners who plan to move will go with a lower term any way since it is cheaper. The people who sign up for the 30 year are typically those who are catching the low of a major cycle or who do not plan to move soon or plan to hold on to the property for rental purposes.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by VikramS »

BTW has anyone seen the carnage in silver? Down almost 40% in a week as the commodity bubble collapsed. Hope people who had bought silver/AGQ cashed out some when it started falling (stops are essential).
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by shyam »

^^^
Why did that happen?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by Ambar »

The 'kaanspiracy theorists' call it "engineered zionist designs" . Ofcourse, goldbugs never admit the role of speculators when metals rise, but always blame the speculators when metals crash.

Silver has gone up almost 200% from its price an year ago, and at some point a major correction was due. Just that it came crashing down by 30% in just 2 days. Reasons could be the strengthening of USD that also brought down the price of oil and other commodities by 10%,a slowing economy that could further create deflationary scare and prop up the USD. Not to mention some profit booking. It did go up by 10% from 33$/oz to 36.60$/oz on Friday.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by devesh »

silver is at $36 now. it cannot go down below the 30-33 range. that is the minimum it will go down to. any way, by year end, it will still be in the 35-40 range.....

or so i hope :)

broadly speaking, as long as the global reserve currency keeps inflating, commodities will have to go up. short of some miraculous increase in supply, commodities have no where but to go up, in the present monetary situation.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by Hari Seldon »

Der Spiegel 1st prints this:
Greece Considers Exit from Euro Zone
Spiegel Online has obtained information from German government sources knowledgeable of the situation in Athens indicating that Papandreou's government is considering abandoning the euro and reintroducing its own currency. [..]

Alarmed by Athens' intentions, the European Commission has called a crisis meeting in Luxembourg on Friday night. [..] In addition to Greece's possible exit from the currency union, a speedy restructuring of the country's debt also features on the agenda. One year after the Greek crisis broke out, the development represents a potentially existential turning point for the European monetary union -- regardless which variant is ultimately decided upon for dealing with Greece's massive troubles. [..]
THe meat of the article is here:
[..] .. should Athens turn its back on the common currency zone, it would have serious implications for the already wobbly banking sector, particularly in Greece itself. The change in currency "would consume the entire capital base of the banking system and the country's banks would be abruptly insolvent." Banks outside of Greece would suffer as well. "Credit institutions in Germany and elsewhere would be confronted with considerable losses on their outstanding debts," [..]
The big scare of course is that Ireland may decide to follow Greece and with that UKstani banks, that hold large chunks of Irish debt would plunge into crisis only.

Anyway, the denials came swift and fast after the Spiegel article:Greek PM denies euro exit; says leave Greece alone
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou on Saturday denied there was even unofficial discussion over Greece quitting the euro zone and asked that his troubled country be "left alone to finish its task". [..]

"These scenarios are borderline criminal," Papandreou told a conference on the Ionian island of Meganisi. "No such scenario has been discussed even in our unofficial contacts...I call upon everyone in Greece and abroad, and especially in the EU, to leave Greece alone to do its job in peace." [..]
Yawn...yup. Same old, same old. I'm coming round to the view that in a purely fiat monetary system, gubmints can essentially holdout forever. We'll find out when we get to forever, of course.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by Hari Seldon »

Oh, more here. From TAE.
Europe is running a giant Ponzi scheme (FT)
And this is from one Mario Blejer, former governor of the Argentinian central bank and hence, someone with first hand experience in defaults.
One of the pillars upon which the euro was established was the principle of "no bail-out". When the sovereign debt crisis hit the eurozone this principle was ditched. As Greece, Ireland and Portugal were unable to service their unsustainable levels of debt, a mechanism was instituted to supply them with the financing necessary to service their obligations.

This financing was provided, supposedly, in exchange for their implementing measures that would make their, now higher, debt burdens sustainable in the future. Yet the mode adopted to resolve the debt problems of countries in peripheral Europe is, apparently, to increase their level of debt. [..]

Here is where this situation resembles a pyramid or a Ponzi scheme. Some of the original bondholders are being paid with the official loans that also finance the remaining primary deficits.
Aha, you say? Join the club.
...this "public sector Ponzi scheme" is more flexible than a private one. In a private scheme, the pyramid collapses when you cannot find enough new investors willing to hand over their money so old investors can be paid. But in a public scheme such as this, the Ponzi scheme could, in theory, go on for ever.
Well, well....that forever horizon prediction again...

Of course, hiccups happen en route but nothing the likes of smart determined men like the world's central bankers can't hoodwink in a hurry...
But could it, really? The constraint is not financial, but political. We are starting to observe public opposition to financing this Ponzi scheme in its current form, but it could still have quite a way to go. It is apparent that, if not forced sooner by politics, the inevitable default will only be allowed to take place when the vast part of the European distressed debt is transferred from the private to the official sector. As in a pyramid scheme, it will be the last holder of the "asset" that takes the full loss. In this case, it will be the taxpayer that foots the bill, rather than the original bondholders that made the wrong investment decisions.
The way the powers that be - the financial masters of the universe - have demonstrated ample and complete control of all branches of gubmint in the emerged world so far - 'state capture' by whatever name, lofty fears that a political, popular backlash can stop this ponzi going forward are way exaggerated, IMVHO.
Is this good or bad? It all depends on how one assesses the value of the time gained. Would a bank crisis now be more damaging to the European economy than a future debt write-off? Or, alternatively, is recognising reality and accepting a debt restructuring now preferable to increasing the burden on future taxpayers? At the end, it is a political decision, but it would be refreshing if things are called by their name. Euphemisms may be useful in the short run, but one finally recognises a Ponzi scheme when it persists.
I've swung over to the view that is not not-good. Best to let all emerged economies simultaneously declare default and reset once the private losses of bondholders and other speculators are completely and irreversibly saddled onto taxpayers. That way every1 can start afresh. Sure Asian central banks will be left holding the bag but so what, another cycle in history repeats only.

jai ho and all that.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by ramana »

So the PIGS have a new Paki tactic (delink from Euro as that will spread the losses to rest of Europe) if things go south?

They go down too but they are sinking anyway.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by svinayak »

ramana wrote:So the PIGS have a new Paki tactic (delink from Euro as that will spread the losses to rest of Europe) if things go south?

They go down too but they are sinking anyway.
Had a long talk with a money manager
Greece debt will totally bring the Euro down. The resulting defaults will shake the euro zone and make the economy shaky for several decades.

The Greece bond is paying 25% interest which is unheard of. The german bond is yielding 3-4% normal
Spain has 25% unemployment.

This is a silent war between the Euro and the dollar. Long shot on dollar are being placed now.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by ramana »

VikramS, Whats your take?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by shyamd »

ramana wrote:So the PIGS have a new Paki tactic (delink from Euro as that will spread the losses to rest of Europe) if things go south?

They go down too but they are sinking anyway.
Before they do that. Ireland was planning to print more euro's physically lol. Caused the ECB heartburn. Greece will partially default triggering Deflation.

Its interesting how the social mood influences your comments and psychology: here is what I said on 2nd May 2010:
IMO I think they will save Greece (small economy about 3% of EU), we all know Spain and Portugal are next. Read an article saying that IMF could only just about afford to bail out Greece. I think one of these 2 will be allowed to fail(default) just like Lehmann. The motto is switching as I said earlier to too big to bail rather than too big to fail as it was last year. The Euro's are gonna run out of money when Portugal and Spain come cap in hand to Germany, France. So they will allow one of these to fail, at least one of them will fail maybe even both!. There is no money to bail out both.

Be prepared for riots like we saw yesterday in Greece, in the PIIGS too.

This suggests that we are heading for a period of deflation and a whole round of bad debts for banks again. Perhaps towards the end of the year or September time?
7th May 2010:
IMO, Greece ---> Portugal ---> Spain ---> Italy. At least One of these will default. I think it will be Portugal. Its an economy which is ...well it doesnt do much... Its just like Greece. I'd put my money out of Europe in a safe bank. The crisis isn't going to be pretty. France and Germany are facing most of the risk as a fall out of one of these countries failing.
IBs will probably report good results this year but these will turn bad next year once the euro crisis becomes a full blown storm. Spain & Greece will definitely affect the US.

I expect US imports and obviously unemployment, will surge to politically unacceptable levels thanks to Eurozone crisis. China will ultimately take the fire of the Eurocrisis. Trade barriers will probably put up next year end.

China is still trying to stop their lending bubble. Massive overcapacity and over investments. Commodities will drop a lot.
From what I hear, things are going to turn south quite soon and its going to be very bad for some euro zone countries.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by VikramS »

Silver, Oil etc:

The market was heavily short the USD. On Thursday, Trichet's press conference did not use the word vigilant. So at 8:30 ET, you saw the Euro fall down 100 pips in a few seconds. That was the dollar short capitulating. The Dollar is due to for major low (time-wise) and as the dollar rose, people started unwinding the short dollar long commodity trade. To add to the fire one of the Fed governers (the desi dude) came out saying that the Fed might raise the rates, TWICE, soon. Talk about pouring fuel on a fire. It was a well coordinated global smack-down of commodity speculators.

Then oil broke 105. That was a major support level. Oil had run up a lot due all the Mid-East tensions. So in one sweet hour you had the Dollar rocketing, oil collapsing as over leveraged funds started to exit. This took the entire commodity complex down with it. It was RISK OFF trade as it is called. Everyone rushing to close their dollar shorts, their commodity longs. As price collapses, margin calls happen and everything gets sold; especially those positions in which you have made money.

This were the market regulators come in. CL (the WTI contract) has a $10 limit down. i.e. it can not go down more than $10 in a session before trading stops. But on the day oil was collapsing they changed the limit from $10 to $20. Let the liquidation happen and let people get out of their positions :)

Silver also had a similar regulatory interference. The margin for the silver future contract has been steadily increasing. This means that once that suppose you were levered 10:1 in silver trade. If the margin doubles, and you were leveraged to hilt, you will have to reduce your leverage to 5:1. So you pretty much end up selling half your position just TO BE in the trade. I have heard of people who had started with ONE contract and gone up to THREE FIGURES (500,000 Oz of Silver) as the levered up, as their profits started rising. This is because the silver contract originally had very low margin ($6-7K) per contract which controls, 5000 Oz of silver. So you pretty much doubled your money in a $1 move. There are some traders who just want to ride the bull as much and for every $1 move, they were able to double their position. So as silver went from $25 to $50 they pretty much went 2^25 in size (of course they did not but you get the idea). Fortunes were made in this run. I am talking 500x initial capital; saath pushto kaan theka etc. I think right now the margin is about $25-30K. This is not out of line because if silver was moving $5/day the change in your account value would be $25K.

On the night of Osama, many longer term players started selling silver. It collapsed about $8 in 10 minutes. Yours truly was watching it but was too busy with the OBL party to partake.

Gold also took a hit but not as much. It seems that in this round the speculators ran up silver. Gold and mining stocks were not used. In fact the word is that the hedge funds were going long silver but shorting the miners as a hedge.



====================================

As I have alluded before, this is a game of competitive devaluation. The Fed will continue to do stealth QE and be dovish, especially since the commodities have come down. The Euro zone will continue to do this Paki Dance. The situation is becoming politically difficult. In Ireland they voted out the old party. Some of the European parties (Finland, Germany) are now talking about demanding collateral from Greece before giving further help.

Unfortunately for the European countries, the right remedy which is to restructure debt or end the Euro, is too hard a medicine to take for the European banks which have billions of bad sovereign debt on their balance sheets. So this kicking the can will continue.

No one knows for how long....

The dollar is bad but it is liquid and vast. It is the one eyed king of the blind. The other currencies CHF, CAD, AUD, NOK, Rand are just not big enough in market size to serve as a safe haven. If the Chinese had not been so intent on cooking their books, this could have been the period when the Yuan became a global reserve.
==================================

Gold may correct 10-20%. So it is time to let go of your speculative position on any rally. But do not let go of your core position, which is going to be your hedge for the end of the world as we know it.

Equities are going to be in for a tough few months, so tighten stops or buy puts to hedge your longs.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by devesh »

^^^
there is a lesson in the above. the more complex and complicated these elaborate systems become, the harder it becomes to reform them. US welfare system has become a vast empire with so many laws, legalities, agencies, regulations, and institutional frameworks that to reform a vast overhaul, it will take gigantic effort and herculian will and courage to take on the entire system, including the special interests like AARP, insurance firms, and all kinds of political interests.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by shyam »

Hot masala news for the weekend!!!
IMF CHIEF ARRESTED IN NEW YORK FOR ALLEGEDLY FORCING HOTEL MAID TO GIVE HIM O*** S** :rotfl:

But an interesting outcome from this incident
If there was any threat that the IMF would launch an SDR alternative to the USD, it is all over now.

....

This time he won't (even though he did... in a way), and it appears that the IMF is about to lose its head, meaning the fate of literally unlimited bailout funding is now up in the air.
One interesting comment:
She put up more of a fight agaisnt DSK than Ireland did. :lol:
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by ArmenT »

X-posting from the TSP thread:
--------------------------------
Never would have believed it, but it looks like IED mubarak fridays in Pakistan are good for the economy (of other countries): :eek:
Yen Rises After Pakistan Bombing
The yen strengthened against most of its 16 major counterparts after a bombing in Pakistan killed at least 73 people, boosting demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.

“The yen has substantial status as a safe haven,” said Adam Cole, global head of currency strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in London. “It’s clearly helped by a market which is turning more risk-averse.”
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by shyam »

IMF chief Strauss-Kahn caught in "Honey Trap"
But if Strauss-Kahn was set up, then it was probably by members of the western bank coalition, that shadowy group of self-serving swine whose policies have kept the greater body of humanity in varying state of poverty and desperation for the last two centuries. Strauss-Kahn had recently broke-free from the "party line" and was changing the direction of the IMF. His road to Damascus conversion was championed by progressive economist Joesph Stiglitz in a recent article titled "The IMF's Switch in Time". Here's an excerpt:
A Former JPMorgan Guy Just Took Over For Dominique Strauss-Kahn
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by svinayak »



A new study by the International Monetary Fund says that China will surpass the U.S. economy in five years, but is it true?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by krisna »

Strauss-Kahn's arrest brightens Montek's chances for IMF top jobs?
Ahluwalia, along with Min Zhu, special adviser to IMF's managing director, Asian Development Bank MD Haruhiko Kuroda, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development secretary general Angel GurrÃa, former UN Development Programme head Kermal Dervi and former South African finance minister Trevor Manuel are seen as contenders for top jobs at IMF, which include the first deputy MD. The post of first deputy MD, the second in command at the Washington-based institution, will fall vacant in September as John Lipsky has announced his intention to step down.
But Indian officials say it is still early days given that charges against Strauss-Kahn, whose term is to expire next summer, are yet to be proven. Besides, the Europeans and the US are yet to agree to cede control of the two Bretton-Woods institutions. Since the two institutions were founded in 1944-45, Europeans have headed IMF, while the World Bank has stayed with an American.
speculations.
Monty Ahluwalia has not confirmed or denied the reports so far.
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Lesson for the next IMF chief.

Post by anmol »

:eek:

Image
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by Ambar »

..and thus starts the conspiracy theories again! To start with, a couple of years ago there was a internal IMF inquiry about Strauss-Kahn's behavior with a female staff. He got off with a rap on his wrist saying "error in judgement". A 31 year old French writer has come out today that she may file charges against Strauss for sexually assaulting her in 2002 during an interview. The guy is no angel and we go blaming the "conspiring evil bankers" again!
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by svinayak »

It is all about the hegemony of the dollar...
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by vera_k »

The Jo Lahore Mein Gandoo theory is more convincing than this one. The guy just forgot he was no longer in Paris.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by shyam »

Rating agency Fitch ups Iceland outlook to "stable"

Irish and greek look really dumb. This must convey the message to Portugal and Spain, and there by confirming that Euro is a toss.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by Hari Seldon »

Oirostan in hot water, seems like. 'Duh' I know, still, some detail.

How better to underline if not join the myriad dots if not via a TAE tweets roundup...
http://twitter.com/#!/AutomaticEarth
There used to be a time pre Mark to Myth accounting that the income statement showed the past & the balance sheet the future. Now? Kool aid.
Couldn't agree more. The sanctity if any of financial statements has been shredded perhaps permanently. ONly a system reset can maybe restore credibility there. Oh, no, I'm not complaining or anything. The status quo suits me fine, better than the disorderly economic storms that may break in if nature is allowed to take its course and cleanup the mess, no?
FT: UK Banks in race to shed commercial £224 Billion in property debt http://on.ft.com/kkNaEf (Fifth of loans in breach/ default)
Moral of the story: Make sure your bank or business isn;t buying any perfumed sh1t UKstani banks are hawking at the moment.

Meanwhile, the pain in spain continues...will PRC ride to the rescue? Here's a chance to demand and obtain mil bases on spanish soil, perhaps... /Just kiddin'
In Spain, protestors rally a battered nation http://bit.ly/iEaORS (Beginnings of a Spanish revolution?)

In Spain youth unemployment is around 45pc per Eurostat data. So unemployed youth are expected to buy overpriced houses & stocks?

Looks like post election Spain is going to have debtzilla unleashed on them, local govt's have been hiding debt & people are pissed off.

"They can't do Spain. Spain will be certain to bring down banks, reputations, vast wealth and markets." Ilargi on the pain in bailing Spain
Anxiety keeps the super-rich safe from middle-class rage http://bit.ly/mDJvRw (UK incomes at the top soaring, pretty stagnant in middle)
Hey, stagnant ain't so bad if in real terms. I'd be more interested on how the debt load is changing on middle class households in UKstan and elsewhere in the TFTA emerged world though. At least the UKstanis have the NHS. Its not like medical emergencies can push a large section of currently middle class people into bankruptcy and poverty like in yumrika.

Chalo, enough D&G for now. Again, D&G scenarios grow more unlikely with each passing day ("whew!"). The powers that be are in command and control. Most BRFites are, I'm guessing, part of the knowledge economy and are hence relatively insulated from the turmoil at the bottom rungs which will get the raw end of this crisis's stick for sure. And the young too. Youth unemployment soaring almost everywhere in the emerged TFTA world.

Time will tell where this is going. I just hope and pray for a soft-ish landing only. For all our sakes.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by shyam »

It is surprising to see that once mighty spaniards are openly looking at Iceland for inspiration

Spain's Icelandic revolt
“When we grow up, we want to be Icelanders!" cried one of the leaders of the organisation during the march on Sunday May 15 before a column of young – and not so young – parents and children, students and workers, the jobless and pensioners. Many Saturdays in Iceland were needed before citizens won the changes they had demanded. Spain’s first Sunday has taken place, and was followed by a Tuesday [May 17]- but there’s still a long way to go.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by Hari Seldon »

The Iceland example ain't going away in a hurry. And there's strength in numbers. Once the first default/bond haircut happens, the domino will fall rapidly indeed, IMHO.

So, the TFTAs (UKstan, Fwance, Germany, unkil) whose big banks hold so much of this souring debt will try to severely punish the first to default. Let's see how this unfolds.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by Neshant »

I've been busy as hell working on a personal project.

But I'm back for a while so all banking & financing goons better head for the hills.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by Neshant »

Its no secret why Europeans are in a hurry to put yet another European at the head of the IMF. They don't want to see austerity enforced on them like that which is enforced on Africa when debts are unpayable and loans are needed. This means the the taxpayers of the world are going to be pilfered via the IMF pouring money into a rat hole. A China man needs to be put on the seat of the IMF to tighten belts until europeans are as thin as chinese - both financially and PHYSICALLY !
What happens when Greece defaults :
- Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent.
- The Greek government will nationalise every bank in Greece.
- The Greek government will forbid withdrawals from Greek banks.
... and 12 more things .... leading up to finally the British Banks and the Pound.

Day or weeks away ?
Given that the ECB has played the “final card” it employed to force a bailout upon the Irish – threatening to bankrupt the country’s banking sector – presumably we will now see either another Greek bailout or default within days.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...eece-defaults/
May 20, 2011
By Andrew Lilico Economics, at the Telegraph
Last edited by Neshant on 23 May 2011 07:37, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by Neshant »

An interesting idea for an alternate currency : Bitcoin

Haven't yet studied it in detail. Apparently its an open source version of digital money. You can create it yourself it can trade via the P2P concept. Makes it hard for govts to crack down on or track. What caught my attention is that its supply is mathematically (or is it only algorithmically?) limited. Its bound to fail and I'd obviously prefer physical gold to any complicated system but its interesting nonetheless that people are thinking up with alternate currency systems.
Bitcoins are created by a complex algorithm. Only 21M can be made by the year 2140. Your desktop bitcoin software can make bitcoins, but at this point the electricity and time it would take to produce a bitcoin is larger than the actual value of a bitcoin (your laptop might take five years to make one, and they currently trade at $6.70 per bitcoin.

Bitcoin miners use super cheap GPUs (not CPUs) to create the coins, but as more people come online to make them, the algorithm adjusts so that one block can only be made every 10 minutes.

We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by Neshant »

“The sale should be very well-supported given it’s a triple A rated asset,”
famous last words..
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by svinayak »

Fascinated by how they have trapped Rajat Gupta
The amount of articles and front page on Bloomberg businessweek, etc.
Image

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/co ... page_5.htm

Gupta Secretly Defied McKinsey Before SEC Tip Accusation
By John Helyar, Carol Hymowitz and Mehul Srivastava - May 17, 2011 10:03 AM PT
Bloomberg Markets Magazine

Rajat Gupta, seen here as senior partner emeritus of McKinsey & Company. Photographer: Seokyong Lee/Bloomberg

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Lloyd Blankfein, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group, told a jury yesterday that former Goldman board member Rajat Gupta violated the firm’s confidentiality policies by allegedly telling Raj Rajaratnam about the firm’s earnings and strategic plans. Prosecutors called Blankfein to the stand to help build their case that Rajaratnam, the Galleon Group LLC hedge fund co-founder, traded on inside information about Goldman Sachs he obtained from Gupta. Bloomberg's Jon Erlichman reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

Rajat Gupta, seen here as former senior worldwide partner at McKinsey & Co., and a board member of AMR Corp., the parent company of American Airlines, leaving the company's annual shareholders meeting in New York on May 19, 2010. Photographer: Ramin Talaie/Bloomberg

Rajat Gupta speaks during the United Nations General Assembly on September 14, 2005. Photographer: Paulo Filgueiras/United Nations via Bloomberg
On a sunny Friday afternoon in June 2003, Rajat Gupta was greeted at his waterfront home in Westport, Connecticut, by scores of his McKinsey & Co. partners. They had come from London, Frankfurt, New Delhi and other cities around the world -- and brought along an elephant, which they tethered on the front lawn.
Gupta was stepping down after nine years as managing director of the global consulting firm, and his colleagues were gathered to celebrate his tenure and wish him the best in the next phase of his career.
They offered champagne toasts and took photos of Gupta, standing next to the elephant, which was draped in a brightly colored shawl called a jhool. The decorated elephant represented the Hindu god Ganesh, who bestows good fortune on new ventures. Gupta smiled as he rested his arm on its trunk, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its July issue.
Today, some of those same people say they’re stunned by what they’ve since learned about Gupta. In March, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed an administrative order against him saying that he had passed confidential information to hedge fund billionaire Raj Rajaratnam, the central figure in the biggest crackdown on insider trading in U.S. history.
Rajaratnam was convicted on 14 counts of conspiracy and securities fraud on May 11 and could face 19 years in prison, pending his July 29 sentencing in federal court.
Double Life
Government wiretaps and phone records show that Gupta called Rajaratnam nine times in 2008 and 2009, giving the hedge fund manager information to make trades for his New York-based Galleon Group LLC.
Gupta, 62, who divides his time between his Connecticut home, a Manhattan apartment and a Florida getaway, has lived a double life. For 34 years until 2007, he worked for McKinsey, including nine years as the top executive of one of the world’s most trusted and prestigious consulting firms.
He was the confidant of chief executive officers such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)’s Lloyd Blankfein and Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)’s former head A. G. Lafley. Gupta sat on the boards of both of those companies -- and he was a director at four other publicly traded corporations.
As a philanthropist, Gupta raised millions of dollars for education and health care, especially in India where he was born and to which he wanted to give back. He’s done charitable work with Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates, former U.S. President Bill Clinton and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Friends describe him as brilliant and humble.
Keeping Secrets
At McKinsey, a firm known for keeping secrets, Gupta harbored a few of his own. As the managing director and then as senior partner of McKinsey for four more years before he retired, he ran his own consulting business on the side -- a violation of McKinsey rules.
He and Anil Kumar, a former McKinsey partner who last year pleaded guilty to passing confidential information to Rajaratnam, set up their own consulting company. Gupta also independently advised Genpact Ltd. (G), a Gurgaon, India-based firm that manages business processes for other companies. That work, too, broke McKinsey’s rules.
“It has always been a clear violation of our values and professional standards for any firm member to provide consulting or advisory services outside of McKinsey for personal monetary gain,” says Michael Stewart, a McKinsey partner and director of communications.
McKinsey conducted an internal investigation of Gupta and Kumar, and has cooperated with prosecutors and the SEC.
Off Track
During the past decade, Gupta, who was already a millionaire, began to veer off track. He spent more time with Wall Street money managers. He told colleagues that he wanted to be a dealmaker, not just a consultant. Gupta declined to comment on what he told his colleagues or on anything else reported in this story.
While Gupta was devoted to his philanthropy in India, his quest to amass great wealth led him to lapses in judgment, says Bala Balachandran, dean of the Great Lakes Institute of Management in Chennai, India, and a friend for almost three decades.
“He wanted a billionaire’s life and the question for him was how could he become a billionaire in a short time,” Balachandran says.
Gupta, a man to whom corporate chieftans turned for advice and counsel, chose poorly when it came to investment partners.
In December 2006, two years before he reached McKinsey’s mandatory retirement age of 60, Gupta co-founded private equity firm New Silk Route Partners with investors, three of whom had previously paid fines to settle SEC actions against them.
The Fines
Among the three was Rajaratnam, whose Galleon Group paid a $2 million fine and forfeited profits to the government in May 2005 to settle an SEC complaint it had made improper trades. He neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing.
Two other investors in New Silk Route, Parag Saxena and Victor Menezes, like Gupta, had connections in the U.S. and India.
Saxena, a former money manager, paid a $250,000 fine in 1994 to settle civil claims that he had received pre-initial- public-offering stock in companies at big discounts and then recommended the shares to his clients at Chancellor Capital Management Inc., after the companies went public.
In January 2006, Menezes, a former Citigroup Inc. (C) senior vice chairman, paid $2.7 million in a fine and forfeited trading profits to the U.S. to settle SEC charges that he sold Citigroup holdings ahead of an announcement of losses from a subsidiary in Argentina. Both men neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing.
Balachandran says he warned Gupta of his choice of business partners.
‘The Chicken Flu’
“You’re an eagle, so why do you want to be with these chickens who can’t fly?,” Balachandran says he told Gupta. “You’ll get the chicken flu.”
Gupta hasn’t been charged with a crime in the Galleon insider trading scandal. The SEC administrative action against him is a civil complaint -- and the most that could happen to him is a fine and a consent decree that could bar him from serving on public company boards in the U.S.
Gupta and Rajaratnam have known each other since the 1990s, and their relationship is both personal and professional. Gupta invested $10 million of his own money with Rajaratnam, according to Gupta’s lawyer, Gary Naftalis. Gupta gave Rajaratnam more than money; he passed along information on Goldman and P&G, prosecutors said during Rajaratnam’s trial in Manhattan.
Unindicted Co-Conspirator
Justice Department prosecutors called Gupta an unindicted co-conspirator. They presented wiretap evidence to the Rajaratnam jury showing that Gupta had told the hedge fund manager that in 2008 Goldman Sachs’s board was discussing possible acquisitions of American International Group Inc. or Wachovia Corp.
Gupta also gave Rajaratnam early word on earnings at Goldman Sachs and P&G, the SEC says in its action.
Gupta sent an e-mail in late February to fellow directors of the Indian School of Business, declaring his innocence.
“I have done nothing wrong,” he wrote to the board of the school, which he co-founded in 2001 in Hyderabad. “The SEC’s allegations are totally baseless.”
For the 85-year-old McKinsey, the Kumar conviction and the SEC action against Gupta have been a blow to its elite image. The firm counts among its clients hundreds of the world’s leading corporations, including Bloomberg LP, and governments.
Old Boys’ Club
Consultants never talk about their clients in public, and the firm won’t even disclose customers’ identities. Leaders of major companies have started their careers at McKinsey, including Boeing Co. CEO Jim McNerney, former American Express Co. head Harvey Golub and one-time International Business Machines Corp. CEO Lou Gerstner.
For decades, until the 1970s, the firm was the ultimate old boys’ club, where consultants were required to wear hats and long, dark-colored socks, with white, button-down cotton shirts and conservative suits. Gupta was the first nonwhite and non- U.S.-born elected managing director of the firm.
McKinsey veterans have been deeply troubled by Gupta’s run- in with the SEC.
“I was shocked, totally and completely shocked, at the news of the allegations,” says Ian Davis, who succeeded Gupta as McKinsey’s managing director from 2003 until 2009 and is now a director of BP Plc and Johnson & Johnson.
Gupta got caught up in envy and emulation of the super- rich, says Terry Connelly, dean of the Ageno School of Business at Golden Gate University in San Francisco.
‘Seductive Power’
“You can never underestimate the seductive power of three or more zeroes added to net-worth numbers,” says Connelly, a former managing director at Salomon Brothers Inc. “You can be successful, but if you’re in hedge fund managers’ circles and you’re not rich like them, you can start asking, ‘Why can’t I get that? I’m every bit as smart.’”
Smart is a word people often use when describing Gupta. His ascent from lower-middle-class roots in Kolkata to the top of McKinsey is a triumph of brainpower and drive.
He was born in December 1948, 14 months after India became independent of British rule. His father, a journalist who worked for two newspapers, fought for India’s independence and was jailed several times for his political activism. His mother was a teacher in a Montessori school.
The family moved to New Delhi when Gupta was five. He, his two sisters and younger brother attended Modern School, one of India’s few English-language, Western-style high schools at the time -- located off what was then New Delhi’s most exclusive shopping district, Connaught Place.
Orphaned at 18
Gupta was orphaned at age 18 after both his parents died of natural causes within two years of each other. He persuaded an unmarried aunt to live with him and his siblings, according to a 1994 interview Gupta gave to ‘Business Today,’ an Indian magazine.
He said he was shattered by his father’s death and became very studious, careful never to make a mistake that could cost him his high school scholarship.
Gupta ranked in the top 20 applicants among hundreds of thousands of Indian youth who took the entrance examination in 1966 for a spot at the elite Indian Institute of Technology, according to an interview he gave to the “Economic Times” of India when he became head of McKinsey.
He chose the Delhi campus, which kept him close to home and, in 1971, he earned a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering. His main leisure activity was acting in plays in the school’s drama club, where he met his future wife, Anita Mattoo, an electrical engineering student.
Choosing Harvard
In the socialist India of the 1970s, white-collar positions outside the civil service were scarce. Gupta got his first job offer from ITC Ltd. (ITC), a British-owned company that sold cigarettes and ran hotels. He turned it down when he was admitted to Harvard Business School on scholarship.
The academic workload was unrelenting for most but not for Gupta, says John Carberry, who lived in the same Boston dormitory and was Gupta’s friend.
“Sometimes we’d still be doing cases at 2 a.m., but he’d be done by 11 p.m. and lying on his bed, watching Johnny Carson,” says Carberry, who’s now president of Wellesley, Massachusetts-based F.L. Putnam Investment Management Co. “But if you had problems with your schoolwork, he’d always help.”


McKinsey Tightens Rules
Meanwhile, McKinsey has tightened its rules, barring consultants and support staff, as well as their spouses and children, from investing in any company McKinsey has served in the past five years or is cultivating. Employees also are required to take a test about this policy and won’t receive their bonus unless they achieve a 100 percent score.
Gupta’s former Harvard dorm mate Carberry says he’s dumbfounded as to what went wrong with his friend.
“If the SEC charges are true, something happened to Rajat,” he says. “The Rajat I knew at business school was of the highest integrity. The Rajat I’ve heard on wiretapped conversations isn’t the person I knew.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-1 ... ation.html
shyam
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by shyam »

Carefully read Rajat Gupta's Wikipedia entry. It gives interesting information about his personal side.

It appears that with the arrest of Rajaratnam and Rajat Gupta, the power of Indian lobby group in US will be significantly weakened.
svinayak
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Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by svinayak »

shyam wrote:Carefully read Rajat Gupta's Wikipedia entry. It gives interesting information about his personal side.

It appears that with the arrest of Rajaratnam and Rajat Gupta, the power of Indian lobby group in US will be significantly weakened.
indian lobby which worked on the US India strategic dialogue. Somebody wants to create problem in this
svinayak
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by svinayak »

Infosys is being investigated for visa fraud
Ambar
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Post by Ambar »

Acharya wrote:Infosys is being investigated for visa fraud
How is this related to 'Perspectives on Global Economic Meltdown' ? Besides, this is old news. Infosys,Wipro and HCL are under USCIS/DHS scanner for a massive scale business visa fraud.
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