India Nuclear News And Discussion

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GuruPrabhu
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by GuruPrabhu »

JwalaMukhi wrote:Sorry, you can't bat on both the sides. Either domestic scientists are competent, and let them build the capabilities at whatever the indigenous cost that they want. or as you allude they are incompetent and hence import route is necessary.

The opponents of "import today" are saying fund them to go indigenous appropriately. Do not encourage them to become sheikhs who buy(import) stuff, because they were incompetent in the first place to develop that internally. That's all. Truly over and out.
The "import today" is not due to incompetence but due to timeline. This has been said many times. Neutron economics dictate that. Given enough time, DAE will also develop 1.6 GW reactors. But waiting for that will delay the growth of nuke power and also delay the 3-phase program.

MVR's paper is also about neutron economics. It is entitled "slow and stunted", not "incompetent and idiotic".

So, which side are you batting on?
chaanakya
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by chaanakya »

amit wrote:
chaanakya wrote:So now you get the idea that the plea that "others are also committing crime so one has to be let off" is not an admissible plea.If Coal needs to be tightened so be it.
Boss,

I'll get back to you on that report, don't have the time to do a search on BRF now. {will wait , thanks}

However, I'd like one small clarification: What crime has the Indian nuclear industry committed? {its fallacy of your argument that was pointed out}

Do note that in this post of yours as well as others you seemed to have blamed the Japanese as much as natural elements for Fukushima. For example here you said that the Black Swan event was not unexpected. {do read and review news about fukushima that has been posted in detail pointing to how TEPCO fared in all this, all from Japanese sources and news media}

So are you trying to say that since the Japanese nuclear industry "committed a crime" (alleged negligence) the Indian nuclear industry is culpable too? Why are you lumping the Indian nuclear establishment with the global one? {negligence, yes, they committed negligence from the inception or conception of the plant, well documented, not going to argue again}

Meanwhile, I say the Indian coal-based power generation industry has already killed people and are killing them every day (you don't get to 10,000 or any other similar number without killing every day). And till now at least the Indian nuclear industry hasn't killed a single person. So who or which industry is more culpable - one that is already killing or one which may kill in the future? {do you have direct causal relationship or just studies pointed out as in cases of Nuclear accident?}

Yet, you worry about nuclear - because of theoretical clean up costs in the unlikely event of an accident. But you are willing to wait until "eventually" coal is replaced by renewables. Why not ban the coal industry right here and now? {dear I have seen coal plants in Japan with zero emission, 99.99% to be exact. So tech could be evolved. And in any case if coal is going to run out it will be replaced with something, not necessarily with one or the other, but could be a mix }

Note, there's an 800 lb gorilla in the room we aren't even talking about. And that is nobody even knows now how you'd produce electricity in the quantity that one mega coal or nuclear power plant can now produce using renewables. Several pages ago GP gave a good estimation. If correct he noted that to power a city like Delhi, we'd need a solar farm almost the size of Rajasthan. Even considering the fact that, that may be a exaggeration, have you even considered the land acquisition cost - not only monetary but also in terms of unpredictibles like demonstrations, riots etc - that would entail in building huge solar farms? Let's not even talk about how you have high base load generation at night. { Do you really understand how real power systems work and who talked about only solar?}

Sorry I like live in the real world and take my chances rather than have my head in the cloud and dream about a theoretical nirvana. Hence I'm willing to take chances with nuclear with of course better monitoring, independent regulator and all the stuff that can make nuclear power more safer.{sure there was one physicist, an eminent one at that, who refused to live under the shadow of nuclear plant, ostensibly it was too ugly and I am still waiting for one to eat plutonium to disprove its toxicity. Ostensibly he wanted someone to eat caffeine to prove comparative toxicity. How convenient as toxicity of caffeine in certain amount was not in question}

Call it a difference in approach if you will.
GuruPrabhu
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by GuruPrabhu »

As I look at these pages, I realize that all the points being made have been made before -- more than once for most of them.

Time for an IB4TL on this dhagaa?
chaanakya
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by chaanakya »

Sanatanan wrote:Here is a link to what another Bolg (bravenewclimate) says:
Renewables and efficiency cannot fix the energy and climate crises (part 1)
I feel that, Part 2, yet to be published and expected "to cover the ‘fallacy of the baseload fallacy’, ‘overbuilding’, costs, and evolution of real-world energy systems" might be interesting to read too.
Its quite interesting and will read second part also. But energy question is not only about providing energy as per demads but rational, efficient and effective utilisation of energy produced. Using heat to generate electricity to generate hot water through electric geysers for bathing is not the best of the solutions, just for example.
Also unlimited energy==no problem solution is what people want everyone to believe.
Sanku
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Sanku »

GuruPrabhu wrote: Time for an IB4TL on this dhagaa?
Most of BRF recycles points, it is important to keep it going till correct information is shared and disseminated. If this thread goes new ones will come up.

Meanwhile I hope that Japan's pull back from Nuclear energy coupled with the fact that Japanese have not lost their Oriental heritage would make them circumspect about hawking their nuclear tech through Westinghouse et al to us poor Indians unlike Americans who eschew Nuclear power at home but tom tom it for everyone else.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

...
...to power a city like Delhi, we'd need a solar farm almost the size of Rajasthan. Even considering the fact that, that may be a exaggeration..
Actually, the "farm size" for solar farm (specially if its full potential is realized) is not that much different from land requirement for a NPP of the same capacity..

Roughly speaking, 1 km^2 could produce about 1GW.(order of magnitude calculation onlee) .... same order of magnitude (less than a factor of 10) as current NPP. :)

Added Later: For perspective, Solana in Arizona (scheduled to open in 2013), the farm size is about 8km^2, for 250 MW (from their website)..("full potential is realized" is the key word - the above comes out to about 30 Km^2/GW
Last edited by Amber G. on 12 May 2011 05:23, edited 1 time in total.
Theo_Fidel

Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Theo_Fidel »

WRT to solar it is not a question of can it come thru. Solar must come thru. We don't have any other options. If this was easy we would be there by now.

Even the best projections have 100,000 MW + coming from renewables in 20 years. This 3-4 times the power projected for nuclear. So far Nuclear is just a rounding error. Yes 400 sqkm is a lot of area, but that is assuming an efficiency of about 2% or so. This is a sign of how little has been invested in figuring out this problem. Laboratory tested high efficiency PV is at over 40% efficiency. Solar Thermal can be at over 15% efficient. We just haven't worked on the plants enough. The latest Solar Thermal in the USA is about 6% efficient and rising. I'm sure we can do much better than 2% over time as we get closer to lab performance and squeeze more power out.

I have always wondered if there is a way farmers could 'farm the sun' using PV or Solar Thermal. Instead of planting crops they plant panels/heliostats and hook into the power plant. They can then be trained to clean/maintain the units while maintaining ownership of the land. Also there are shade crops that could possibly still be grown under the panels. It hasn't been fully figured out yet.

400 sqkm sounds like a lot and it is 80,000 acres. But it can all be the worst wasteland out there. Rajasthan alone has about 200,000 sqkm of scrub land that is not farm-able. Of this 100,000 sqkm is complete wasteland. Tapping 1/10th that area even at horrific efficiencies of 2% gives us 100,000 MW for the entire day using 10,000 sqkm. Still just 2% of Rajasthan land area. Also about 20% of India is considered to be wasteland, http://dolr.nic.in/WastelandCategoryArea.htm, About 550,000 sqkm. About 120 million acres.

Of course now we have 2 million acres of solar to maintain but I look at that as an opportunity to employ farmers to maintain all that equipment. Say it takes 1 person to maintain 2 acres. That's a million people. I'm very sure we can find that number in Rajasthan.

In terms of crude costing this would cost about Rs10 crore per MW right now. As we scale up it will get a lot cheaper. So assuming we can get it down to 5 crore+ per MW, total cost is about 10 Trillion Rupees. Or about $200 Billion +/-. Over 20 years it is $10 Billion a year or about 50,000 Crores. About what we spend on the NREGS.

No one said this was going to be easy. All the more reason to start right now.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by vina »

Even the best projections have 100,000 MW + coming from renewables in 20 years. This 3-4 times the power projected for nuclear. So far Nuclear is just a rounding error. Yes 400 sqkm is a lot of area, but that is assuming an efficiency of about 2% or so. This is a sign of how little has been invested in figuring out this problem. Laboratory tested high efficiency PV is at over 40% efficiency :eek:. Solar Thermal can be at over 15% efficient. We just haven't worked on the plants enough. The latest Solar Thermal in the USA is about 6% efficient and rising. I'm sure we can do much better than 2% over time as we get closer to lab performance and squeeze more power out
I am stunned at the PV conversion efficiencies you are quoting.

Basically an axiom of Dharam-O-Dyna-Mix is this the more "complex" the system, the more efficient it is . So consider the most "complex" conversion of solar energy into energy system that you can imagine. Yes.. I am talking about mother earth!. Sun's rays hit the earth, that solar energy is used via photosynthesis to create organic matter in plants etc, and then the plants get fossilized and become coal/oil/ whatever and then in places like Soddy A-Rape iya , abduls dig a well and you get a gusher and then you burn it in your v8 engined monster SUV at a less than 30% thermodynamic efficiency (70% of the energy in the fuel is sent out to the atmosphere :roll: :roll: ).. And now do the math of what the conversion efficiency of the sunlight a couple of million years ago in one of the most "complex " systems possible and it ending up in some in a monster SUV.. I think it is around 15% or so,maybe much less IIRC. So that is the absolute top end you can go via solar . You cannot build a more "complex" system than the one I described!
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by chaanakya »

Theo_Fidel wrote:This is a sign of how little has been invested in figuring out this problem. Laboratory tested high efficiency PV is at over 40% efficiency.
.

Solar Cell Breaks the 40% Efficiency Barrier
December 7, 2006
A photovoltaic (PV) cell achieved a milestone earlier this week with a conversion efficiency of 40.7 percent. Produced by Spectrolab, Inc. -- a wholly owned subsidiary of Boeing -- and funded in part by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the breakthrough could lead to PV systems with an installed cost of $3 per watt and produce electricity at a cost of $0.08 to $0.10 cents per kilowatt-hour.

"The excellent performance of these materials hints at still higher efficiency in future solar cells."

-- Dr. Richard R. King, Spectrolab, principal investigator

The 40.7 percent cell was developed using a structure called a multi-junction solar cell. This type of cell achieves a higher efficiency by capturing more of the solar spectrum. In a multi-junction cell, individual cells are made of layers, where each layer captures part of the sunlight passing through the cell -- allowing the cell to absorb more energy from the sun's light.
Naturally some get stunted. :wink:
GuruPrabhu
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by GuruPrabhu »

^^^ The multi-junction construction is the most promising. Material engineering is probably the fastest moving field in the 21st century.
vina wrote:Basically an axiom of Dharam-O-Dyna-Mix is this the more "complex" the system, the more efficient it is .
Where does this axiom get verified? I have never heard of it. Usually, complexity (in terms of number of steps of conversions) implies more inefficiency because the second law enters each step.

The problem lies in the fact that folks mean different things by "efficiency".

The conversion of photons to electrons is a simple one-step process. A very high fraction of the photon's energy goes into liberating the electron (this energy is lost), so yes, the energy efficiency is very very low.

However, in terms of PV, the figure of merit is quantum efficiency (primary) and separation efficiency (secondary). The former is the probability that a photon will create an electron (photo-electric effect) while the latter is the efficiency of harvesting the electron to make electricity.

Neither of these two is an energy efficiency.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Purush »

A bit more on the land area required for solar. Looks like my numbers may have been off.

http://www.masterresource.org/2010/05/s ... wables-iv/
By
http://www.vaclavsmil.com/

Disclaimer: I haven't read the whole article, so take it FWIW at the moment.
For an approximate calculation of electricity that could be generated on large scale by photovoltaic conversion it would suffice to multiply that rate by the average efficiency of modular cells. While the best research cells have efficiencies surpassing 30% (for multijunction concentrators) and about 15% for crystalline silicon and thin films, actual field efficiencies of PV cells that have been recently deployed in the largest commercial parks are around 10%, with the ranges of 6-7% for amorphous silicon and less than 4% for thin films. A realistic assumption of 10% efficiency yields 17 W/m2 as the first estimate of average global PV generation power density, with densities reaching barely 10 W/m2 in cloudy Atlantic Europe and 20-25 W/m2 in subtropical deserts.

PV panels are fixed in an optimal tilted south-facing position and hence receive more radiation than a unit of horizontal surface but the average power densities of solar parks are low. Additional land is needed for spacing the panels for servicing, for access roads, inverter and transformation facilities and for service structures, {As Tanaji mentioned} and only about 85% of a panel’s DC rating will be transmitted from the park to the grid as AC power. Olmedilla de Alarcón, the world’s largest solar park in Spain, has installed capacity of 60 MW of peak power (MWp) but its annual generation of 85 GWh (or 9.7 MW of electricity as an average annual rate) translates to capacity factor of just 16%. Portuguese Moura (46 MWp, 88 GWh or 10 MW of average annual generation) has the capacity factor of nearly 22% and the capacity factor for Germany’s largest solar park (Waldpolenz rated at 40 MWp) is only 11%. Power density of Olmedilla is only 9 W/m2, that of Moura almost 8 W/m2 while Waldpolenz rates just above 4 W/m2.
The largest solar PV parks thus generate electricity with power densities that is roughly 5-15 times higher than for wood-fired plants but that is at best 1/10 and at worst 1/100 of the power densities of coal-fired electricity generation. Again, if only 10% of all electricity generated in the US in 2009 (395 TWh or about 45 GW) were to be produced by large PV plants, the area required (even with average power density of 8 W/m2) would be about 5,600 km2. :shock: No dramatic near-term improvements are expected either in the conversion efficiency of PV cells deployed on MW scale in large commercial solar parks or in the average capacity factors. But even if the efficiencies rose by as much as 50% within a decade this would elevate average power densities of optimally located commercial solar PV parks to no more than 15 W/m2.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by chaanakya »

GuruPrabhu wrote: Usually, complexity (in terms of number of steps of conversions) implies more inefficiency because the second law enters each step.

The problem lies in the fact that folks mean different things by "efficiency".

The conversion of photons to electrons is a simple one-step process. A very high fraction of the photon's energy goes into liberating the electron (this energy is lost), so yes, the energy efficiency is very very low.

However, in terms of PV, the figure of merit is quantum efficiency (primary) and separation efficiency (secondary). The former is the probability that a photon will create an electron (photo-electric effect) while the latter is the efficiency of harvesting the electron to make electricity.

Neither of these two is an energy efficiency.
++1 to that.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by devesh »

laying solar panels on the ground as a scale up strategy to provide power for 100's of millions of people is a dead end strategy. not sure about India, but for the US, it would take the entire Southwestern US to be covered up in solar panels to provide for US energy needs. i am talking about California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma. just look at the US map and see what kind of land area we are talking about!!!

that doesn't mean Solar won't be the energy of the future though. it just means that Solar as we know it today is useless. unless solar cell technology achieves some kind of a revolution, this will remain inconsequential.

interestingly, there are some proposals in US about a solar energy setup that gets energy in space and transports it to earth. George Friedman was talking about this in his "next 100 years" book. the Star Wars program could actually be coopted for this purpose...
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Sanku »

devesh wrote:laying solar panels on the ground as a scale up strategy to provide power for 100's of millions of people is a dead end strategy.
Although its OT and I have been trying to avoid getting drawn in this one particular discussion on this thread. I do not think that Solar as of now is considered to play that role. At least now.

In Indian context what it can do.

What it can do is provide heating and lighting and other such personal use requirements for some time (say 4 hours) a day to millions and millions who dont even have basic access to electricity.

The micro generation will also side step grid issues, a serious and significant real world issue in our country (not in other places) due to combination of demographics, poor management and weather related issues.

However to think like that would require a truly Indian perspective and not a "since I live in this very nice developed country that does xyz let me try and mimic the xyz blindly for India".

There is a good reason why Ultra mega NPPs were not considered till MMS woke up one fine morning.
chaanakya
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by chaanakya »

Sanku wrote:
devesh wrote:laying solar panels on the ground as a scale up strategy to provide power for 100's of millions of people is a dead end strategy.
Although its OT and I have been trying to avoid getting drawn in this one particular discussion on this thread. I do not think that Solar as of now is considered to play that role. At least now.

In Indian context what it can do.

What it can do is provide heating and lighting and other such personal use requirements for some time (say 4 hours) a day to millions and millions who dont even have basic access to electricity.

The micro generation will also side step grid issues, a serious and significant real world issue in our country (not in other places) due to combination of demographics, poor management and weather related issues.

However to think like that would require a truly Indian perspective and not a "since I live in this very nice developed country that does xyz let me try and mimic the xyz blindly for India".

There is a good reason why Ultra mega NPPs were not considered till MMS woke up one fine morning.
Sanku ki the problem is when one talks about Nuclear plants , not exactly in terms of "pro-nuke" version, it is instantly
ass-umed that 100% renewables are being pushed. There are well recognised limitations. Renewables doesn't mean solar PV alone.

And of course the role you have portrayed is what has been doing the rounds for many years and will continue to do so for a long time. In fact MW capacity plant is being planned only now. Yet to see and study all aspects and how it could be applied to indian context.

Those who talk of nuclear PP talk as if they have the capacity to replace coal 100% even by 2050. one can't achieve that in this timeframe.

Good reasons are thrown to winds as we have seen by many scams during recent years.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

An interesting story, from one physics professor.. (Some what relevant...... (Sorry for cut and paste.. don't have a link)
Liz, a former student of my class, came to my office hour, eager to share a wonderful experience she had had a few days earlier. Her family had invited a physicist over for dinner, someone who worked at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

He regaled them through the dinner with his stories of controlled thermonuclear fusion, and its great future for the power needs of our country. According to Liz, the family sat in awe of this great man describing his great work. Liz knew more about fusion than did her parents, because we had covered it in our class.

There was a period of quiet admiration at the end. Finally Liz spoke up.
"Solar power has a future too," she said.

"Ha!" the physicist laughed. (He didn't mean to be patronizing, but this is a typical tone physicists affect. :-o ) "If you want enough power just for California," he continued, "you'd have to plaster the whole state with solar cells!"

Liz answered right back. "No, you're wrong," she said. "There is a gigawatt in a square kilometer of sunlight, and that's about the same as a nuclear power plant."

Stunned silence from the physicist. Liz said he frowned. Finally he said, "Hmm. Your numbers don't sound wrong. Of course, present solar cells are only 15% efficient… but that's not a huge factor. Hmm. I'll have to check my numbers.

YES!! That's what I want my students to be able to do!
chaanakya
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by chaanakya »

Another one of ...

this was recommended by you umpteenth times as a must read if one aspires to become POTUS and you say you don't have link. Strange indeed!!!!

Muller would now be squirming in his bed.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ I do want to thank for the link, though once a quote is given, with google, its not difficult to find a link for any one who might be interested to know details, noting 'strange' about it.. though it may be hard for those who believe in conspiracy theories of pro-nuke lobby "dining" them doses of mSv's (For context - Chaanakya has accused me that I am radiation poisoning the brf janta when I put a post detailing health effects for perspective)

Yes, this book ( online lectures too) has been recommended, and I recommended ts chapter 1 to Chaanakya where it explains internal energy (which BTW is not qcT as repeated ad absurdum by the previous poster).

I also recommended the chapter on Radiation etc to this poster. (actually gave the link to make matters easier - though it is easy to find that from google)

There were no thanks (from this brf member), and alas only effect, it seem to have on the above snickerer is just keep throwing tons on insults at the person who suggested the book. :roll:
Last edited by Amber G. on 12 May 2011 00:58, edited 1 time in total.
Amber G.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

Another "strange" cut and paste:
(Giving the link this time, so that silly people do not accuse of "strangeness")
(link
An extended in-depth study has found no significant evidence of an increased risk of childhood leukaemia for children living close to the UK's nuclear power plants.

The report, published by the independent Committee on Medical Aspects of Radiation in the Environment (COMARE), presents a new analysis of data on the incidence of leukaemia in children under five years of age living in the vicinity of 13 nuclear power plants in the UK, over the period 1969-2004. In addition, it considers additional factors not addressed in previous COMARE reports which the organisation says may account for differences in leukaemia risks in studies from other countries.

Previous COMARE reports, covering the period 1969-1993, found no evidence that living within 25 km of a nuclear generating site in Britain was associated with an increased risk of childhood cancer. However, prompted in part by the 2007 German study Kinderkrebs in der Umgebung von Kernkraftwerken (KiKK), in 2009 the UK's Department of Health asked COMARE to conduct a further review in addition to its previous studies.

According to the newly released report, the pathology of cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkins lymphoma occurring in children living within 10 km of a UK nuclear power plant did not appear to differ from a larger group of control patients. The risk estimate for childhood leukaemia associated with proximity to a nuclear power plant is "extremely small, if not zero", the study concludes.

.....
The 142-page study is available on COMARE's web site.
Go ahead, last line should be enough of a hint to get the right link for the details...
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Gerard »

Opponents of nuclear power on this thread want *all* nuclear plants to be shut down
Including the plutonium production reactors for nuclear weapons?
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by somnath »

chaanakya wrote:Sanku ki the problem is when one talks about Nuclear plants , not exactly in terms of "pro-nuke" version, it is instantly
ass-umed that 100% renewables are being pushed. There are well recognised limitations. Renewables doesn't mean solar PV alone
Chanakya-ji, no one in the "nuke" lobby is pushing for exclusively nukes either...the problem with renewables is simple, and discussed many times before..None of the sources (barring hydro to some extent) are capable of being scaled up as sustained base load generation at an affordable costs (to thermal)...I am nt getting into discussions on setting up a 500 s km area solar farm in Rajasthan - quixotic is an understtement to describe the idea...Just look at the most ambitious projects on solar being undertaken anywhere, and then estimate the scalability of it...Most pertinently, solar will never be able to be a base load source without many more quntum jumps in storage tech, things that are much farther our in the futrure than reprocessing capacity for FBRs :wink:

I think I had mentioned this before - there is a Harvard Business Review classic, "Marketing Myopia" by Theodore Levit (it was an all-time best seller before CK PRahlad's Core Competence essay)..In that, Levitt predicted that in 20 years time, electricity landscape would look different as consumers would power their homes through small fuel cells in their garages and solar panels on their roofs...Of all the various presciences that Levit articulated, this was the most strikingly inaccurate, in hindsight...30 years hence, we are nowhere near changing the landscape in any manner..

the othe rimportant variable is the economics of coal..there is a baseline level of coal production that can sustain certain levels of power generation...But a quantum jump from these levels will stretch it far beyond..Proof? Coal India, the 3rd largest (or 2nd?) coal miner in the world, is desperately looking to acquire coal blocks in Indonesia and Australia.Not to supply the Chinese, but only to meet projected Indian demand...
Now how does nuke come into the picture? Simple...Nukes are not necessary for everyone..But if India and China convert even 10% of their incremental capacity to nuclear, together with expected reductions (on efficiency gains) in the West, coal supplies will be far less stretched...Its not for nothing that certain commodity traders and hedge funds look at the price correlations between coal and uranium so closely...

Can nuclear replace coal 100% by 2050? Not a chance...But can nuclear take care of 30% of incremental India-China coal-fired demand by 2050? Absolutley - any of the various planning estimates would make us sanguine about that....A distinct possibility, espeically if the expected breakthroughs in the 3 phase programme (and other thorium based designs) come true...

And that is precisely what is being spoken of here - in the basket of energy choices, nuke has the capability to replace coal materially as base load source...Nothing else today has the same capability...Even if by some divine magic (which our uber nationalists lay a lot of faith on!) solar were to be scalable thrice as much as today, it would still not be able to replace coal..It will replace other peak load sources like diesel, gas etc...

While I wrote up this post, quickly drew up Coal price movements on my BBG - dont know how to paste a graph here, but coal prices have gone up >4 times since Mar 2008, and oil has gone up 3 times...Why? For the former, simple - India/China demand...Result? Here is some..
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/volat ... p/789100/0

After the RBI last week (with its rate hike), the govt too is revising downwards GDP growth estimates...Now high commodity prices are a reality, question is what is the rate of growth that the economy can handle? Quite obvioulsy, we managed the move from x to 4x (or 3x) reasonably, but further inflationary pressures are acting as a "tax" on incomes...Something relatively ringfenced from commodity prices as nuke power (as also wind and solar) creates buffer (or insurance) for greater absorption of comodity price rises to the entire energy basket..In simple mathematics terms, if nukes as % of total electricity goes up from 3% to 6%, it creates additional 7-8% price rise buffer for coal prices (as coal is ~50% of the basket, and has high variable costs)..ACtually its a little more comlicated than that, as my old teacher Ramprasad Sengupta would say, given the economics of base load power, but you get the idea...

If one looks at the issue in terms of econmics and science, the logic and rhetoric are very differnet to uber nationalists' assertions of "nuke is evil, get rid of it, and yes, build 500 sq km solar farms instead"!
Last edited by somnath on 12 May 2011 07:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Thanks. It (and messages like this) helps a lot for people like me who are lurking here to learn.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by GuruPrabhu »

^^^ good post, Somnath.

It is certainly not 100% of this or that. I had posted one version of the power mix for 2030. I was hoping that it would spark debate in terms of fine-tuning that mix. It still had coal as the majority producer.

The crux of the problem is that if more of coal is front-loaded in the mix, the faster it runs out.

So, the question can be clearly phrased: what is the mix when coal runs out?
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

chaanakya wrote:However, I'd like one small clarification: What crime has the Indian nuclear industry committed? {its fallacy of your argument that was pointed out}
Exactly what is the fallacy in the context of the discussion on possible accidents due to nuclear power generation? Where has there been a major nuclear accident in India which required evacuation, mobilization and general hysteria?
Do note that in this post of yours as well as others you seemed to have blamed the Japanese as much as natural elements for Fukushima. For example here you said that the Black Swan event was not unexpected. {do read and review news about fukushima that has been posted in detail pointing to how TEPCO fared in all this, all from Japanese sources and news media}
Boss hope you don't have comprehension problems, I'm saying precisely that you have said the Black Swan event was not unexpected.
So are you trying to say that since the Japanese nuclear industry "committed a crime" (alleged negligence) the Indian nuclear industry is culpable too? Why are you lumping the Indian nuclear establishment with the global one? {negligence, yes, they committed negligence from the inception or conception of the plant, well documented, not going to argue again}
Hey read my post again. I said that you are condemning the Indian nuclear industry of committing a crime because allegedly the Japanese nuclear industry "committed" a crime? Why the harangue about Japan when I'm talking about the Indian industry.
Meanwhile, I say the Indian coal-based power generation industry has already killed people and are killing them every day (you don't get to 10,000 or any other similar number without killing every day). And till now at least the Indian nuclear industry hasn't killed a single person. So who or which industry is more culpable - one that is already killing or one which may kill in the future? {do you have direct causal relationship or just studies pointed out as in cases of Nuclear accident?}
OK when I posted that study which said 300,000 people die every year due to pollution emitted from coal fired plants in India, you had then claimed you don't believe the number. Since I haven't been able to get any other source I deliberately whittled down the number (using a particular methodology which I described in a previous post) to 10,000. Regarding nuclear accident I do note that you have been honest enough to use the singular in the case of accident. Chernobyl was precisely that an accident. And the only one in which there was a loss of life in the nuclear industry.

However, the deaths due to coal plant pollution is not due to accidents. Its due to day to day operation of the plant. That is why I said the coal based power generation industry in India has already killed people. Or are you one of those who denies people die due to coal thermal plant pollution?

Here's a report which says this:
The bad news is that Coal-fired power plants in the Northeast are polluting the air and water and making people sick, actually killing 4,000 every year in the Northeast region alone.
Do not the Northeast here doesn't refer to the Seven Sisters in India. It refers to Northeast of the US of A.

And you still believe that my 10,000 number for India (out of a population of 1.2 billion) is a figment of my imagination?

Also have a look at this presentation as well.
In India, the trend to depend on coal-fired plants is more noticeable than the world for the strong demand growth.
Capacity of coal-fired plants is still drastically increasing from 78GWin 2007to 364GW in 2030. (4.7 times)
CO2 emission amount from coal-fired plants is increasing from 0.7billion ton in 2007 to 1.6 billion tonin2030. (2.3 times)
{dear I have seen coal plants in Japan with zero emission, 99.99% to be exact. So tech could be evolved. And in any case if coal is going to run out it will be replaced with something, not necessarily with one or the other, but could be a mix }
I'm sure you have seen them but have you seen them producing 1,000 MW and more electricity at a rate comparable to nuclear power generation?

Have a look at some comments here
"Clean coal technology is still developing and not widely used. For further improving the efficiency of energy combustion, we need IGCC and IGFC in the future," said Kaushlendra Kumar Mishra of Coal India Ltd.

IGCC, or integrated gasification combined cycle, and IGFC, integrated coal gasification fuel-cell combined cycle, are advanced clean coal technologies that have been introduced on an experimental basis.
In short it is certainly a step in the right direction but it's still a work in progress. But can India afford to wait until the technology matures? You got to understand when you set up a power plant - whether coal or nuclear - you just can't tear it down a few years later and then set up a new one. You can only make incremental improvements. So a plant set up today will be running at least for 50 years. Is there a clean coal technology that can help set up a 1,500 MW coal fired plant today?
{ Do you really understand how real power systems work and who talked about only solar?}
Oh, I'm sure you have enough knowledge for both us and then some to keep in the fixed deposit locker. So let's not go down that path.
{sure there was one physicist, an eminent one at that, who refused to live under the shadow of nuclear plant, ostensibly it was too ugly and I am still waiting for one to eat plutonium to disprove its toxicity. Ostensibly he wanted someone to eat caffeine to prove comparative toxicity. How convenient as toxicity of caffeine in certain amount was not in question}
Yup Ralph Nadar backed off from eating the caffeine. I wonder why, since the toxicity of caffeine was not in question.

However, the broader questions remains, if plutonium is sooo bad shouldn't we close down our plutonium plants? I mean its criminal to have people living around plant daily using and producing such a toxic substance, na?

What takes the cake is all effort is made to project what how evil and unsafe the industry nuclear is, run by a bunch of criminals all the way from Japan via the US to India. Then one turns around and says we are not calling for closing all nuclear plants.

We are calling for....

Sucks I forgot what the clarion call is for?

Darn I must have radiation in my brain.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Ethics Commission Recommends Swift German Nuclear Phaseout
BERLIN—Germany should phase out nuclear power by 2021, according to a leaked draft of a report from the "Ethics Commission on Safe Energy Supply" created by Chancellor Angela Merkel in the wake of the Fukushima catastrophe. The commission is chaired by Klaus Toepfer, former head of the United Nations Environment Programme, and Matthias Kleiner, head of the German Research Foundation, the country's largest funding agency. The 17-member commission also includes representatives from industry, research, and politics, as well as a Roman Catholic cardinal and a protestant bishop.

The 28-page draft, a copy of which ScienceInsider has obtained, recommends permanently shutting down the country’s seven oldest nuclear reactors, which were taken off line shortly after the problems at Fukushima became clear. The temporary shutdown has demonstrated that the 8.5 gigawatts produced by the reactors can be easily replaced by other sources, the report says.

In addition, the commission “recommends a complete withdrawal from nuclear energy.” The experience at Fukushima “demonstrates the limitations of human disaster-preparedness and emergency measures,” even “in a highly organized, high-tech country like Japan.” A total withdrawal “is necessary to rule out risks in principle. It is possible because less risky alternatives exist,” the report says. With new, more-efficient power plants run on renewable sources, as well as natural gas and coal, a phaseout is possible without increasing Germany’s carbon dioxide emissions and without causing significant economic problems.

The commission says that a 10-year “exit corridor” is a reasonable time frame for politics and society to make the necessary changes. “In the best case the exit corridor could be shortened so that the last nuclear plant could be taken off-line significantly sooner,” it says.

A law enacted in 2002 would have closed all of Germany’s 17 nuclear power plants by 2023, but Merkel’s coalition passed a new law last autumn that delayed that phaseout by more than a decade. When the Fukushima crisis erupted, Merkel announced that she was suspending the law for 3 months to give the government time to analyze the safety of the country’s reactors and to rethink the phaseout’s timing. The commission’s report, due at the end of the month, is expected to strongly influence the direction the government takes.

The leaked report, which carries the file tag “living document,” could undergo significant changes before the official version is released at the end of the month. The commission is due to meet again this weekend.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

Somnath great post. Sums up the view point succinctly! Agree 399.999 per cent!
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by amit »

Ok since Chaanakya Sir's post got me looking here some stuff I dug up.

This site has some interesting data and talks about Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
India’s coal consumption increased from 360 million tons in 2000 to 460 million tons in 2005 (5.5%/year over this period).

India currently consumes a fifth as much coal as China
The Indian economy has been growing at twice the rate of electricity capacity additions
68 percent of India’s CO2 emissions are from coal.
Note the bolded portion. This is a point being made repeatedly. India is an energy deficit country where electricity generation capacity growth is not keeping up with economic growth. Translated it means we need electricity Now in order to sustain growth. Sorry we don't have the luxury to wait for some esoteric technology to become mainstream some time in the future before building our power plants.

So talking about what solar can turn out to be in future or about clean coal tech which may sometime in the future become economically and technologically viable for mega power plants is interesting but not very relevant to our needs today.

Coming to another point. It seems despite Chaanakya Sir's skepticism my 10,000 deaths per year in India due to coal thermal plant related pollution doesn't seem to be too way off.

According to this link:
Thus the “total annual fossil fuel-based electricity deaths” for India, China and the World can be estimated to be 13,319, 47,477 and 282, 945, respectively. In India 69% of electricity is from coal i.e. 456.5 TWh/y corresponding to 11, 276 “annual coal-based electricity deaths”. In China about 80% of electricity is from coal, corresponding to 1,898 TWh/y and 46,868 “annual coal-based electricity deaths”. For the World as a whole coal provides 40% of the total electricity i.e. 6,940 TWh/y and corresponding to 171,418 “annual coal-based electricity deaths”.
I have to repeat something which I wrote earlier. These deaths are not due to accidents caused by Black Swan events. These death are due to day-to-day running of power plants and unless alternative high baseload, non-polluting power generation technologies take up an increasing portion of the incremental increase in generation in India the death toll per year will only growth higher.

Folks this is not about Polar ice caps melting or about baby polar bears being orphaned. It's also not about the Himalayan ice cap melting by 2035. It's about ordinary Indians dying every day (yes every day) due to poisoning on account of the nasty stuff that comes out of the chimney's of thermal power plants.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ There is an EPA study which estimated (IIRC 30,000 deaths / year due to fossile fuel)

This link or this link or this link may point to EPA link.

(I just did a google on " deaths per year in U.S. due to emissions from fossil fuel burning power plants" :)

In any case the order of number in US is of this much, India would be similar.
(Would be interesting to see what numbers Chaanakya thinks are reasonable)

Just glanced at this wilki article, it may have links to what you want..http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmen ... tf-dada-27

I also found this interesting in one of the above link: (First link)

Table - 1: Eventual number of deaths caused by the wastes from generating 1000 MWe-y of electricity

Nuclear

High level waste 0.018
Radon emissions -420*
Routine emissions (Kr, Xe, C-14, H-3) 0.3
Low level waste 0.0004
Coal

Air pollution 75
Radon emissions 30
Chemical carcinogens 70
Solar (photovoltaics)

Coal for materials (steel, glass, aluminium) 3
Cadmium sulphide (if used) 80
*The negative number indicates deaths averted, rather than caused.

Also interesting is:

Table - 2: Loss of life expectancy (LLE) due to various risks in U.S.
Activity or risk LLE(days)

Living in poverty 3500
Smoking cigarettes (1 pack/day) 2300
*Heart disease 2100
Being unmarried 2000
Working as a coal miner 1100
*Cancer 980
Being 30 pounds overweight 900
*Motor vehicle accidents 150
*Suicide 95
*Homicide 90
*Air pollution 80
Small car vs midsize car 60
*Speed limit 65 vs 55 miles per hour 40
*Falls 39
*Poison + asphyxiation + suffocation 37
*Road in homes 35 ( :?: - No idea what this means..)
*Fire and burns 27
*Dam failures 1
Living very near a nuclear power plant 0.4
*All U.S. Electricity nuclear 0.04
*All U.S. Electricity nuclear - accidents only 0.012

*Asterisks indicate average over total U.S. Population; others refer to those exposed.
(This is from the link given above, for full context, etc... see the original link / comments, (specially insults/smile/ should be directed to the author of the link :) )
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

From: BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4086809.stm
per WHO 3 million people are killed worldwide by outdoor air pollution annually from vehicles and industrial emissions, and 1.6 million indoors through using solid fuel.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Sanku »

The good part is, despite all the e-con-o-mics projection aside, India is actually not going to be able to build any more than 1 mega LWR NPP in 10-20 year time frame. By which time in any case people would be trying to solve the energy problems in other better methods.

So the reality of Indian elephant saves us. Enron couldnt really shaft us despite all their efforts and shut themselves down instead.

So this is all chai-biskoot. No LWR NPPs are going to come up in India.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by Sanku »

Excellent article on the bright future (-nuclear) for Japan lot of lessons for us.

http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/0 ... apan-have/

With Nuclear Expansion Off the Table, What Do Japan's Energy Options Look Like?
Technologically speaking, Japan's solar sector got off to a fast and early start in the 1980s, but it has since been overtaken by Europe. Japan currently has the third largest solar PV capacity installed, generating slightly more electricity than geothermal, but only rates fifth in terms of installation per capita. In 2008, according to Reuters, Japan produced 1.92 million kilowatts of solar power, of which 80% came from people's homes.
Though Japan's environment minister said on Tuesday that the Pacific coast of northeast Japan was suited for wind installation, and could eventually generate the more power than is currently being produced by the nation's nuclear plants, severe weather, grid constraints and economic stagnation have been holding this renewable back.
Japan has the third largest geothermal energy potential in the world after the U.S. and Indonesia. But in terms of harnessing that heat and turning it into power, Japan only ranks 8th, after countries with drastically smaller populations, like Iceland and New Zealand.
Yes there are issues, but where are there no issues? This is a very good way forward.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by chaanakya »

^^ Amit
you seemed to have blamed the Japanese as much as natural elements for Fukushima
since the Japanese nuclear industry "committed a crime" (alleged negligence) the Indian nuclear industry is culpable too? Why are you lumping the Indian nuclear establishment with the global one?
Boss hope you don't have comprehension problems, I'm saying precisely that you have said the Black Swan event was not unexpected.
I have not brought Japanese FUK-D accident in this thread. You did. Lessons need to be learnt from that but its not a condemnation of "Indian" Nuclear Industry as opposed to "Japanese" Nuclear Industry. In fact there is no condemnation at all. It all discussions about pros and cons of nuclear industries worldwide. In "Japanese ..." thread I have not at all discuused Indian Nuke industry. If you read carefully enough its all news items from Japanese media and my ideas. You don't agree with them fine but do not show your comprehension problem to me. TIA.
OK when I posted that study which said 300,000 people die every year due to pollution emitted from coal fired plants in India, you had then claimed you don't believe the number. Since I haven't been able to get any other source I deliberately whittled down the number (using a particular methodology which I described in a previous post) to 10,000.
If you show me a direct causal relationship with deaths as you claimed with that of "the" Coal power plant ( be specific) then perhaps there is a reason to believe that. Just because you whittled down your number from 300,000 to 10,000 does not make it factual. I am sure that is the strict proof of causality demanded in case of Cher.

There are many reports which would say otherwise. Why is it that research of russian and japanese scientists , hundreds of papers have to be condemned and your report is to be believed?
"Clean coal technology is still developing and not widely used. For further improving the efficiency of energy combustion, we need IGCC and IGFC in the future," said Kaushlendra Kumar Mishra of Coal India Ltd.
Kaush is right as we don't have all aspects of CCT. Japanese offered it and in tenders they were out on cost. MD informed during meeting. But then it was Power ministry's choice. Sure , if we get that the plant efficiency could improve by a huge margin.
I'm sure you have seen them but have you seen them producing 1,000 MW and more electricity at a rate comparable to nuclear power generation?
Do you know something about power plants? I don't. So you may be right. But if all of them work on heat transfer,steam generation , turbines and generators then yes they were more efficient then nuke plant in the vicinity. They are still working after tsunami and quake and providing power beyond rated capacity.So I am reasonably sure.
You got to understand when you set up a power plant - whether coal or nuclear - you just can't tear it down a few years later and then set up a new one. You can only make incremental improvements. So a plant set up today will be running at least for 50 years. Is there a clean coal technology that can help set up a 1,500 MW coal fired plant today?
I am sure you have not stated and asked this question in jest? You can find the answer easily.
btw those plants were renovated with minimal cost in less than two years. earlier it used to be as you describe Coal plants.
Anyway that is OT here.


I am still waiting for the scientist who made the claim about plutonium toxicity to eat and prove others wrong.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by vina »

GuruPrabhu wrote:^^^ The multi-junction construction is the most promising. Material engineering is probably the fastest moving field in the 21st century.
Hmm. Seems so. Direct conversion from Sun to electricity using PV seems most efficient . Note however, it is not a heat engine system. If you want to use solar to do energy via a heat, then the efficiency will be on the lines of what I mentioned, which even an extremely complex system such as nature itself that is based on heat having efficiency of the order of much less than 15% max (even when we as animals eat food and burn that carbos for energy etc.. not just V8 engined gas guzzlers).
Where does this axiom get verified? I have never heard of it. Usually, complexity (in terms of number of steps of conversions) implies more inefficiency because the second law enters each step.
Ask unkal googal with words such as "Thermodynamics System Complexity and Efficiency" and you will get a lot of hits and you could read up some. It is actually a well known axiom , a more complex structure is usually more efficient.

The problem lies in the fact that folks mean different things by "efficiency".
Neither of these two is an energy efficiency.
What is usually referred two is "System Efficieny" ... ie in a car, a kg of gasoline has X KJ of energy, and is burnt at say a certain rate and the energy delivered at the wheels is A and that going back into the sink is B . Or in a power plant. X tons of coal has a fuel value of X MJ and out of that we got Y MJ of electricity. Similarly for a Solar system, the sunlight had X MJ and we got Z MJ of electricity. Very easy. Just need input energy , and output energy,the rest that is all happening internally is just tamasha!
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by chaanakya »

Amber G. wrote:(For context - Chaanakya has accused me that I am radiation poisoning the brf janta when I put a post detailing health effects for perspective)


There were no thanks (from this brf member), and alas only effect, it seem to have on the above snickerer is just keep throwing tons on insults at the person who suggested the book. :roll:
Can you tell me where I used that exact words as amit used to demand often from others?
And why do you think "strange" is an insult. Do you really believe whatever I say is an insult to "You", leave alone "tons". But let there be no confusion, any language used deridingly will invite comments in same manner.( in fact I resent the way comments from other blogs were brought to brf to ridicule sanku. He has not said a word, nor I intend to make one. that shows how low one can get to attack someone personally, least expected from an eminent teacher with swyam pragya like you)

We have a saying but I will leave it at that.
All I would say is that Don't take it to your heart as I really respect what you state and do in physical life.

Let us not derail this thread.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by arnab »

chaanakya wrote:
OK when I posted that study which said 300,000 people die every year due to pollution emitted from coal fired plants in India, you had then claimed you don't believe the number. Since I haven't been able to get any other source I deliberately whittled down the number (using a particular methodology which I described in a previous post) to 10,000.
If you show me a direct causal relationship with deaths as you claimed with that of "the" Coal power plant ( be specific) then perhaps there is a reason to believe that. Just because you whittled down your number from 300,000 to 10,000 does not make it factual. I am sure that is the strict proof of causality demanded in case of Cher.
Sorry I don't understand this - many moons ago the tobacco industry used arguments like 'no causal relationship beteween smoking and death'. What exactly would you achieve by correlating a 'specific coal plant' to a 'specific number of deaths'? Aggregate death from coal based pollution has been proved time and again with many reports (as provided earlier).

To take the smoking analogy - does it matter if you die smoking a goldflake as opposed to smoking 555?

Fact of the matter is coal has killed many more than nuke energy. We rely on coal because there is nothing better at the moment. An acceptable risk. We may not like it, but we do it just the same. Same for nukes - except the risks are lower as shown by number of deaths (both actual and potential).
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by chaanakya »

somnath wrote:
chaanakya wrote:Sanku ki the problem is when one talks about Nuclear plants , not exactly in terms of "pro-nuke" version, it is instantly
ass-umed that 100% renewables are being pushed. There are well recognised limitations. Renewables doesn't mean solar PV alone
Chanakya-ji, no one in the "nuke" lobby is pushing for exclusively nukes either...the problem with renewables is simple, and discussed many times before..None of the sources (barring hydro to some extent) are capable of being scaled up as sustained base load generation at an affordable costs (to thermal)...I am nt getting into discussions on setting up a 500 s km area solar farm in Rajasthan - quixotic is an understtement to describe the idea...Just look at the most ambitious projects on solar being undertaken anywhere, and then estimate the scalability of it...Most pertinently, solar will never be able to be a base load source without many more quntum jumps in storage tech, things that are much farther our in the futrure than reprocessing capacity for FBRs :wink:

I think I had mentioned this before - there is a Harvard Business Review classic, "Marketing Myopia" by Theodore Levit (it was an all-time best seller before CK PRahlad's Core Competence essay)..In that, Levitt predicted that in 20 years time, electricity landscape would look different as consumers would power their homes through small fuel cells in their garages and solar panels on their roofs...Of all the various presciences that Levit articulated, this was the most strikingly inaccurate, in hindsight...30 years hence, we are nowhere near changing the landscape in any manner..

the othe rimportant variable is the economics of coal..there is a baseline level of coal production that can sustain certain levels of power generation...But a quantum jump from these levels will stretch it far beyond..Proof? Coal India, the 3rd largest (or 2nd?) coal miner in the world, is desperately looking to acquire coal blocks in Indonesia and Australia.Not to supply the Chinese, but only to meet projected Indian demand...
Now how does nuke come into the picture? Simple...Nukes are not necessary for everyone..But if India and China convert even 10% of their incremental capacity to nuclear, together with expected reductions (on efficiency gains) in the West, coal supplies will be far less stretched...Its not for nothing that certain commodity traders and hedge funds look at the price correlations between coal and uranium so closely...

Can nuclear replace coal 100% by 2050? Not a chance...But can nuclear take care of 30% of incremental India-China coal-fired demand by 2050? Absolutley - any of the various planning estimates would make us sanguine about that....A distinct possibility, espeically if the expected breakthroughs in the 3 phase programme (and other thorium based designs) come true...

And that is precisely what is being spoken of here - in the basket of energy choices, nuke has the capability to replace coal materially as base load source...Nothing else today has the same capability...Even if by some divine magic (which our uber nationalists lay a lot of faith on!) solar were to be scalable thrice as much as today, it would still not be able to replace coal..It will replace other peak load sources like diesel, gas etc...

While I wrote up this post, quickly drew up Coal price movements on my BBG - dont know how to paste a graph here, but coal prices have gone up >4 times since Mar 2008, and oil has gone up 3 times...Why? For the former, simple - India/China demand...Result? Here is some..
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/volat ... p/789100/0

After the RBI last week (with its rate hike), the govt too is revising downwards GDP growth estimates...Now high commodity prices are a reality, question is what is the rate of growth that the economy can handle? Quite obvioulsy, we managed the move from x to 4x (or 3x) reasonably, but further inflationary pressures are acting as a "tax" on incomes...Something relatively ringfenced from commodity prices as nuke power (as also wind and solar) creates buffer (or insurance) for greater absorption of comodity price rises to the entire energy basket..In simple mathematics terms, if nukes as % of total electricity goes up from 3% to 6%, it creates additional 7-8% price rise buffer for coal prices (as coal is ~50% of the basket, and has high variable costs)..ACtually its a little more comlicated than that, as my old teacher Ramprasad Sengupta would say, given the economics of base load power, but you get the idea...

If one looks at the issue in terms of econmics and science, the logic and rhetoric are very differnet to uber nationalists' assertions of "nuke is evil, get rid of it, and yes, build 500 sq km solar farms instead"!

Somnath ji I have no problem with your post but some clarifications are in order, that is if you are willing to respond and not react.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by chaanakya »

^^ arnab

That is a specific response to amit. So not going to reply to your post which is elementary. unless you want me to really reply.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by arnab »

chaanakya wrote:^^ arnab

That is a specific response to amit. So not going to reply to your post which is elementary. unless you want me to really reply.
No I would appreciate a response because one loses thread continuity because of so many posts. I don't understand the logic of seeking 'direct causality' of deaths attributable to a specific coal plant.
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by chaanakya »

arnab wrote:
chaanakya wrote:^^ arnab

That is a specific response to amit. So not going to reply to your post which is elementary. unless you want me to really reply.
No I would appreciate a response because one loses thread continuity because of so many posts. I don't understand the logic of seeking 'direct causality' of deaths attributable to a specific coal plant.
Ohh that one. for that you need to read the whole of FUK-D thread. Just look for discussion on Cher.
somnath
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Post by somnath »

amit wrote:Somnath great post. Sums up the view point succinctly! Agree 399.999 per cent!
Amit, thanks...Also to GP and Amber G!

I dont understand this sudden reference to Enron..I mean, do people even think or read up some background material before they post? Or read the posts made before?

Enron was an IPP with a g'teed IRR on investment made to the operator...In case of nukes, the operator is NPCIL - so unless the govt is on a masochistic drive to take money from one pocket and put it in another, how is Enron relevant?

There was another grand proclamation of the # of LWRs by 2030 - apparently not more than 1!!!!! 2 should be commissioned by next year latest (the VVERs), and 2 EPRs by the end of this decade - as per projects on the ground and projects in the phase of financial closure..Politics approving, there should be another 2 VVERs approved as well, which should come up by the end of the decade or soon after - meeting the LWR target of 6000 Mw by 2020...

Just to give an idea of the enormity of the energy ask, by 2026, the total coal-fired electricity is expected to require 1.1 billion tons of coal production by 2030..To give a perspective, thats thrice of current production..And as I had mentioned in the earlier post, Coal India is already looking at overseas coal assets!

To get a better idea of the challenges, have a look at this fantastic report by the Planning commission on the Energy scneario and projection for India..This is slightly old, circa 2006, and the demand projections would 100% have to be upgraded in light of the last 5 years' growth..

http://planningcommission.nic.in/report ... ntengy.pdf

As can be seen from Table 2.7, nuke is expected to be 12% of incremental demand (8% growth scenario)...This paper was written before the nuke deal was consummated, so chances of that going up to 20%, or even 30% by 2030 is very very realistic...And a straight 14-15% reduction in coal demand, ceteris paribus..
Somnath ji I have no problem with your post but some clarifications are in order, that is if you are willing to respond and not react.
?? Shoot!
Last edited by somnath on 12 May 2011 12:17, edited 1 time in total.
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