China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Kailash · Post by **Kailash** » 11 May 2011 14:00

Army warns PM: China can deploy 500,000 troops on LAC

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 May 2011 15:49

^^^

A little surprised that the Indian Army has to let the political wing know this in 2011. I would expect the political and intel wings to gather this kind of info independent of the IA and act accordingly. ????

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 11 May 2011 15:54

Kailash wrote:Army warns PM: China can deploy 500,000 troops on LAC

It should read as Army warns PM: China can sustain 5 lakh troops on LAC for one month.

And it seems a bit too late. Army should have told Indian Political class in 2008 that by 2011 China will be able to position 5 lakh troops on LAC. They have again told Indian Politicians yesterdays status, without informing Politicians about what will be the situation in another 3-5 years, i.e. 2014-2016 time frame.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 11 May 2011 16:38

Chinese have inferior Kilo's from Russia It further strengthens my assertions that Chinese are sold old tech by Russian's.

First, Vietnam's Kilo submarines will be fitted with land attack cruise missile 3M-14E latest type, with a range of 290 km. Missiles are not Russia's Defense Ministry approved the export to China. Apart from Vietnam, two other countries are exporting Russian 3M-14E missiles is India and Algeria.

Besides that, Kilo 636-MV submarine is equipped with radar-guided complex multi-effects post GE2-01 type. This has not been removed for export to China, the biggest advantage is minimizing the noise in the environment and help diversify measures directions.

Sonar system, Kilo 636-MK China submarines is equipped with sonar systems MGK 400E basic types. Meanwhile, the Kilo 636-MV submarines are installing sonar systems MGK 400E type improvements. Two sonar system has the same sounding range, but the sonar system type MGK 400E is equipped with improved signal processing speed and performance more digitized higher level.

On the periscope, both Kilo 636-MK submarine and Kilo 636-MV submarines are equipped with sounding optical system, but the periscope used for tasks Kilo 636-MV attack submarines are installation of additional equipment measuring distance from IR ray and TV monitoring systems, Meanwhile, Kilo 636MK submarines primarily use optical aiming device and no distance measurement beam from. That means fighting capability at night and the attack accuracy of the Kilo 636-MV submarine will be higher than Kilo 636-MK submarine.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 May 2011 18:45

Christopher Sidor wrote:
Kailash wrote:Army warns PM: China can deploy 500,000 troops on LAC
It should read as Army warns PM: China can sustain 5 lakh troops on LAC for one month.

And it seems a bit too late. Army should have told Indian Political class in 2008 that by 2011 China will be able to position 5 lakh troops on LAC. They have again told Indian Politicians yesterdays status, without informing Politicians about what will be the situation in another 3-5 years, i.e. 2014-2016 time frame.

You seem to lay great emphasis on this single Indian Express report regarding what the army did or did not do in the past. One report and you now have a long list of things that they army should have done, could have done etc. Absolutely amazing.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 May 2011 18:49

Samay wrote: Sometime back I predicted that china is planning its own great game there, for that it needs to weaken India.

Isn't the everyone trying to weaken and undermine India?

Pakistan is trying to split India
The US is trying to hold India down
Chine needs to "weaken" India.

All this is well known to people on this forum It is nothing new. This is how geopolitics works. Only thing is that on this forum we tend to believe that nobody in government or the armed forces knows about these things

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 May 2011 19:02

Sean Rowe wrote: Any direct confrontation with china at this point of time is not in India's interest.

A military confrontation with China is not in India's interest at any time. Now or in the future. It is not in China's interest either actually. There is only one party that gains from such a confrontation.

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 11 May 2011 20:01

In my opinion that country is USA in the long run , to a small extent pakis also. Twenty first century is going to be a three horse race, India, USA and china.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 May 2011 20:06

USA and China seem to be in consensus to make it a 2-horse race.

china wants to keep india as a stray dog - always being kicked and underfed
usa wants us as a house dog - always on a leash

neither are interested in a free range dog-wolf

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 11 May 2011 20:19

good one singhaji

manum · Post by **manum** » 11 May 2011 20:56

USA and china are male and female part of same joinery...one makes original other duplicates it...USA and China are one, one has powerful Media to propagate its world view, other restricts it, plays topgun clips as fighter trials. releases photoshopped hyped pics midst mystery and fanfare. Other hides its fighters in wraps of laws as nobody to see it, if you cant see it, you cant win it. They are a pair of jeans, pair of shoes, binaries complimenting each other. They both will go down together as a couple.

India can not tie itself to sinking ideological boat...nor it can crack jokes to amuse their sense of humour.

Sean Rowe · Post by **Sean Rowe** » 11 May 2011 21:31

Interesting to see how long their honeymoon will last

Samay · Post by **Samay** » 11 May 2011 21:36

shiv wrote:
Samay wrote: Sometime back I predicted that china is planning its own great game there, for that it needs to weaken India.
Isn't the everyone trying to weaken and undermine India?

Pakistan is trying to split India
The US is trying to hold India down
Chine needs to "weaken" India.

All this is well known to people on this forum It is nothing new. This is how geopolitics works. Only thing is that on this forum we tend to believe that nobody in government or the armed forces knows about these things

If we let the chinese establish their firm hold in that area like they did in tibet in front of our eyes,then we have to forget kashmir for ever, because they will interfere militarily if they ever feel that their new silk route is in danger .

With kashmir we have to forget about all the resources in CAR and with it ,our aspirations of becoming a superpower.

Our growth and prosperity is at stake because we are sleeping .While our rulers like everyone in this forum know everything ,then this silence is not mere ignorance or global behaviour , this silence is a sin against the future generations of Indians , and if sir ,as you said 'they ' all know about this ,then doing nothing substantial is ever a bigger sin.
They never explain why they keep sleeping while the rest of the population suffers..because they are incompetent and arrogant, be it politicians or defence forces, they are not defending our future

sourab_c · Post by **sourab_c** » 11 May 2011 21:58

Samay wrote:If we let the chinese establish their firm hold in that area like they did in tibet in front of our eyes,then we have to forget kashmir for ever

Sure, if they want to forget Tibet forever.

Keep in mind that we are in a much better position to intervene in Tibet than they are in Kashmir. We actually have its government in exile and the support of the people. The Chinese will not be given a warm welcome if they try to intervene in Kashmir by the people.

Sean Rowe · Post by **Sean Rowe** » 11 May 2011 21:59

Not only Kashmir.. China and US are playing big games in Nepal as well

arnabh · Post by **arnabh** » 12 May 2011 00:43

Good historical piece from indo-china skirmish 1967...

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/IDR- ... -Nose.html

Samay · Post by **Samay** » 12 May 2011 00:54

sourab_c wrote:
Sure, if they want to forget Tibet forever.

Keep in mind that we are in a much better position to intervene in Tibet than they are in Kashmir. We actually have its government in exile and the support of the people. The Chinese will not be given a warm welcome if they try to intervene in Kashmir by the people.

Sir it is not a primary issue that we do tit for tat in tibet... The game is not to let them play their game on us.

Having a defensive mindset in our country I dont see people at high level understanding these implications too much, because if they did then they would have acted swiftly by now. They will only wake up once the first attack has been made.

Unless we have politicians with an appetite like mao or someone like that, I dont tink our strategic convinience to act in tibet region could be utilised tacitly. WE have to be proactive.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 12 May 2011 01:42

Sean Rowe wrote:Interesting to see how long their honeymoon will last

It is a mutual beneficial

When top two countries find another country sneaking up then it is their interest to join together to put this country down. India has to create a large force or upset the CG to change this equation permanently

sourab_c · Post by **sourab_c** » 12 May 2011 03:34

Samay wrote: Sir it is not a primary issue that we do tit for tat in tibet... The game is not to let them play their game on us.

Having a defensive mindset in our country I dont see people at high level understanding these implications too much, because if they did then they would have acted swiftly by now. They will only wake up once the first attack has been made.

I understand your point. I feel equally frustrated about India's defensive posture. However, common sense dictates that in the current scenario, an offensive posture is not in India's favor. This conclusion has also been reached on this forum many times in the past.

When you look at things considering that premise, you will understand the current situation much better. We simply cannot afford a war at this critical point of time. India is only beginning to rise and challenge other major powers in the world. If we stop that process, we may never recover.

It would be like sending an injured Rocky who is currently recovering from previous fights (or years of colonialism, poverty, illiteracy etc. in India's case) to fight a healthy Apollo. The fight must be delayed so Rocky can fight with his full potential.

rajrang · Post by **rajrang** » 12 May 2011 05:03

Kailash wrote:Army warns PM: China can deploy 500,000 troops on LAC

Clearly the Chinese have been building up their infrastructure in Tibet rapidly and shows no signs of abating. They can easily sustain this indefinitely given that they outproduce India in infrastructure materials such as steel (10 times), cement (5? times) etc. Therefore, it will be safe to assume that in the future (2 yrs? 10 yrs?) they will be able to (quickly) transport significant military forces to the Indian border if they decided to do so. Therefore, India needs to continue the recent build-up in the NE by adding more mountain divisions on a continuous enhancement basis to parallel the continuous growth in Chinese capabilities.

The build up of infrastructure is an aggressive enhancement of capabilities. China as an aggressor will have the advantage of choosing a location of attack, and in this case already has (or will have) the infrastructure to support such an objective by transporting forces from far away. The defender (India) must maintain a (rapid deployment) mountain corps that can respond rapidly to such an eventuality. This will make China think twice. Otherwise, China can choose a location of attack and rapidly bring to bear considerable local military superiority to wrest some territory and much much more importantly inflict humiliation on India.

For starters another two mountain divisions in Ladakh / Uttaranchal plus a rapid deployment mountain corps - a total of 5 divisions - plus air and artillery assets - would be a good idea. Ideally a second rapid deployment mountain corps that will simultaneously counter attack at a location of India's choosing! It will take some time, but India should move in this direction. I am sure everyone on BR knows that nations prepare for their foes (future) capabilities not (stated) present day intentions

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 May 2011 05:26

Earlier we were told that IA would be all buttoned up to address PoK by 2012. We have 6.20 months to Dday.

I think 2012 would be a repeat of 1962 in terms of PRC attempt. We have to see if GoI want to repeat a 1962. All planets are in alignment so far.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 May 2011 05:27

China has a very small window in which she can actually act - as in attack. Beyond that she - INVVHO - will have to settle for a draw and use threats to get what she wants. She will consolidate what she has gained and slowly take over more in Pakistan.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 May 2011 05:30

NRao garu,

India will not attack. So There is no Ech-n-Dee for India to save.

if PRC attacks India, they will be fought tooth and nail. Can PRC take a hit on their Ech-n-Dee and pull back? My guess is NO. Our MMS will agree to walk an extra mile at the behest of coalition drama.

srai · Post by **srai** » 12 May 2011 05:41

rajrang wrote:
Kailash wrote:Army warns PM: China can deploy 500,000 troops on LAC

Clearly the Chinese have been building up their infrastructure in Tibet rapidly and shows no signs of abating. They can easily sustain this indefinitely given that they outproduce India in infrastructure materials such as steel (10 times), cement (5? times) etc. Therefore, it will be safe to assume that in the future (2 yrs? 10 yrs?) they will be able to (quickly) transport significant military forces to the Indian border if they decided to do so. Therefore, India needs to continue the recent build-up in the NE by adding more mountain divisions on a continuous enhancement basis to parallel the continuous growth in Chinese capabilities.

The build up of infrastructure is an aggressive enhancement of capabilities. China as an aggressor will have the advantage of choosing a location of attack, and in this case already has (or will have) the infrastructure to support such an objective by transporting forces from far away. The defender (India) must maintain a (rapid deployment) mountain corps that can respond rapidly to such an eventuality. This will make China think twice. Otherwise, China can choose a location of attack and rapidly bring to bear considerable local military superiority to wrest some territory and much much more importantly inflict humiliation on India.

For starters another two mountain divisions in Ladakh / Uttaranchal plus a rapid deployment mountain corps - a total of 5 divisions - plus air and artillery assets - would be a good idea. Ideally a second rapid deployment mountain corps that will simultaneously counter attack at a location of India's choosing! It will take some time, but India should move in this direction. I am sure everyone on BR knows that nations prepare for their foes (future) capabilities not (stated) present day intentions

The other angle is to look at the sea routes. IN can put an immense pressure on the Chinese supplies through naval blockade on key sea routes, which pass through the Indian Ocean. It is no longer just fighting in the mountains like in the 1962.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 12 May 2011 06:37

NRao wrote:China has a very small window in which she can actually act - as in attack. Beyond that she - INVVHO - will have to settle for a draw and use threats to get what she wants. She will consolidate what she has gained and slowly take over more in Pakistan.

China has all the time it needs. China can pick the place and time it wants to attack. Based on my very limited knowledge of Indian army's capability and its current state vs. China things are not looking good. Due to GOI not providing the funding and clearing the required acquisitions on time {artillery, APC, Aircraft, helicopters, bad roads, shortage of mountain divisions, capability to fight a long war, ability to fight two nuclear rivals at the same time, to name a few things}.

The focus of the Army and the nation has been Pak centric for the last twenty years, while neglecting China. Even now I do not see the tempo picking up to make up for the lost time. How can the armed forces funded by $30 billion face a beast which is being fed by a budget of over $80 billion a year.

Indaruta · Post by **Indaruta** » 12 May 2011 06:41

We should hire the Somalian pirates to attack Chinese ships....cheap solution to control the highway....but you need balls for that

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 May 2011 06:46

Indaruta wrote:We should hire the Somalian pirates to attack Chinese ships....cheap solution to control the highway....but you need balls for that

In fact I suspect the Pakistanis are doing that already - getting Somalis to attack Indian ships. So you may be "behind the curve" here.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 May 2011 06:47

VinodTK wrote:
The focus of the Army and the nation has been Pak centric for the last twenty years, while neglecting China.

Not true.

It is the USA that has been less China centric than it should have been. Suddenly China looms large and there is pant browning going on the USA and to an extent that spills on to Indian media. India has been steadily aware of what China has been up to. Even on this forum we have been pretty up to date - so please let's not imagine that India has been sleeping. It is the US that was sleeping and now they are making a huge hue and cry about China that appears on every media outlet and suggests that the "world has been sleeping"

rajrang · Post by **rajrang** » 12 May 2011 08:16

srai wrote:
rajrang wrote:[url=http://www.indianexpress.com/news/army- ... ac/788722/]Army warns PM: China can deploy 500,000 troops on LAC.

Clearly the Chinese have been building up their infrastructure in Tibet rapidly and shows no signs of abating. They can easily sustain this indefinitely given that they outproduce India in infrastructure materials such as steel (10 times), cement (5? times) etc. Therefore, it will be safe to assume that in the future (2 yrs? 10 yrs?) they will be able to (quickly) transport significant military forces to the Indian border if they decided to do so. Therefore, India needs to continue the recent build-up in the NE by adding more mountain divisions on a continuous enhancement basis to parallel the continuous growth in Chinese capabilities.

The build up of infrastructure is an aggressive enhancement of capabilities. China as an aggressor will have the advantage of choosing a location of attack, and in this case already has (or will have) the infrastructure to support such an objective by transporting forces from far away. The defender (India) must maintain a (rapid deployment) mountain corps that can respond rapidly to such an eventuality. This will make China think twice. Otherwise, China can choose a location of attack and rapidly bring to bear considerable local military superiority to wrest some territory and much much more importantly inflict humiliation on India.

For starters another two mountain divisions in Ladakh / Uttaranchal plus a rapid deployment mountain corps - a total of 5 divisions - plus air and artillery assets - would be a good idea. Ideally a second rapid deployment mountain corps that will simultaneously counter attack at a location of India's choosing! It will take some time, but India should move in this direction. I am sure everyone on BR knows that nations prepare for their foes (future) capabilities not (stated) present day intentions
The other angle is to look at the sea routes. IN can put an immense pressure on the Chinese supplies through naval blockade on key sea routes, which pass through the Indian Ocean. It is no longer just fighting in the mountains like in the 1962.

Good idea, but don't forget that China is building a gigantic naval base on the island of Hainan. Fast forward to 2020, they would have significant naval power to completely stop Indian trade through the Malacca and Sunda straits. India's two carriers will not be able to take on the naval base at Hainan. A naval war could hurt both sides roughly equally and neither side would initiate it to avoid damage to not only their respective economies but also the rest of the world due to global interdependence. Both India and China are run by thinking men - not some fundamentalist red necks. So, it is likely it will be a limited attack in a particular geographical region, the main goal will be to inflict humiliation by capturing some territory. They have done this before (1962).

Going by the phenomenal growth rate of China's GNP, and their vast infrastructure industrial output, there should not be any doubt that 10 years from today, they could very well have an extensive expressway and railway network connecting Tibet and particularly Tibet's border with India to cities in China. Their ability to rapidly bring military power to bear at a particular location on India's borders should not be doubted.

India could have pretended that the railway to Lhasa was ONLY meant to improve the economy of Tibet and to settle Chinese people. However, China's infrastructure development close to the borders of Sikkim, Bhutan and AP is not intended to improve the quality of life of the local Tibetans living there. It has ONLY ONE obvious and ominous purpose.

India must set in motion further continuous enhancement of mountain warfare capability to parallel the continuous growth of China's power in the Himalayas.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 May 2011 08:24

VinodTK wrote: China has all the time it needs. China can pick the place and time it wants to attack. Based on my very limited knowledge of Indian army's capability and its current state vs. China things are not looking good. Due to GOI not providing the funding and clearing the required acquisitions on time {artillery, APC, Aircraft, helicopters, bad roads, shortage of mountain divisions, capability to fight a long war, ability to fight two nuclear rivals at the same time, to name a few things}.

I am not sure I totally agree with you, but, that is the window I am referring to. When India does catch up and she can IMHO (India does not need to spend an equal amount, just sufficient to prevent a misadventure), that window will close. Here I am talking of a frontal attack, not a combo of politics + Pakis + something else.

The focus of the Army and the nation has been Pak centric for the last twenty years, while neglecting China. Even now I do not see the tempo picking up to make up for the lost time. How can the armed forces funded by $30 billion face a beast which is being fed by a budget of over $80 billion a year.

Well, there are many branches to this story.

There is a very recent post-Laden-death series of articles of how the US will now get to focus on China.

Now what kind of a relationship will the US form with India, IMHO, remains to be seen, but clearly there has to be one even if MMS denies it. I feel/think Indo-US are joined at the hip for the next 30 years or so - like it or not.

I also am expecting some misadventure via PoK in the next 5 year time frame. Would like to see which way A'stan goes.

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 12 May 2011 10:36

RamaY,

1. You are saying 1962 will be attempted by PRC around 2012.

2. Are you saying there will be a repeat loss for us like in 1962 again ? Or are you saying unlike 1962, this time we will fight back tooth and nail ?

3. What has this to do with MMS? Are you saying MMS will order that there is no military fightback ?

Please clarify on these points.

NRaogaru,

Question is what kind of relation we will have with the US. Will we be a sovereign state roughly like France with a thermonuclear deterrent or will we become a Japan/South Korea (which have no military power: advanced conventional weapons count for nothing in the absence of a adequate nuclear deterrent).

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 13 May 2011 02:46

Remember the time?

Another development needs to be linked to this issue. The MoD notes that the Sino-Indian border is 4,056-km long and includes the whole of the western sector including Aksai Chin, PoK and the Shaqsgam Valley (ceded by Pakistan to China in an India-disputed agreement in March 1963).

But in a statement a Chinese newspaper in 2010, the Indian ambassador to China put the border length to be 3,488 km. The Chinese newspaper added its own comment along with the interview: “There is no settled length of the common border. The Chinese government often refers to the border length as being about 2,000 km.”

Now, the Chinese has made this figure (2,000 km) the new norm in the official characterisation of the border with India. It appears to have knocked off almost the whole of the western sector boundary and has questioned Indian sovereignty over J&K.
:
China is known to be assertive in its diplomacy on security and military issues. It will attempt to exploit our diplomatic appeasement postures and defence weaknesses on the ground to its advantage.
:
ndia cannot afford to let the latest developments go uncontested diplomatically. In the interest of its own security and Asian stability, it must build a sympathetic international lobby.

In the coming financial year, China plans to spend $91.6 billion on defence and this does not include its budget for internal security. India’s approved defence budget this year is $34 billion.

The above views are that of the VP Malik former Chief of Army Staff.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 13 May 2011 09:16

rajrang wrote:
Kailash wrote:Army warns PM: China can deploy 500,000 troops on LAC

Clearly the Chinese have been building up their infrastructure in Tibet rapidly and shows no signs of abating. They can easily sustain this indefinitely given that they outproduce India in infrastructure materials such as steel (10 times), cement (5? times) etc. Therefore, it will be safe to assume that in the future (2 yrs? 10 yrs?) they will be able to (quickly) transport significant military forces to the Indian border if they decided to do so. Therefore, India needs to continue the recent build-up in the NE by adding more mountain divisions on a continuous enhancement basis to parallel the continuous growth in Chinese capabilities.

The build up of infrastructure is an aggressive enhancement of capabilities. China as an aggressor will have the advantage of choosing a location of attack, and in this case already has (or will have) the infrastructure to support such an objective by transporting forces from far away. The defender (India) must maintain a (rapid deployment) mountain corps that can respond rapidly to such an eventuality. This will make China think twice. Otherwise, China can choose a location of attack and rapidly bring to bear considerable local military superiority to wrest some territory and much much more importantly inflict humiliation on India.

I would like to post a few counterpoints, and i would request readers not to say things like "Do not underestimate your enemy" and "China has a 2 trillion dollar reserve" etc . I realise that and I make my points without attempting to "underestimate" China or anyone else. For those who want proof that I have paid obeisance to China and given the necessary salutations and pranaams in China's direction to please see this post of mine linked below. I kid you not.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 7#p1078197

War in North Arunachal Pradesh (Tibet in other words) is always going to be hampered by terrain, weather and human limitations. The Chinese - in case of offence will be coming from a height of 5000 meters -. Troops who need to fight at 5000 meters need 15 days to 1 month of acclimatization. If we assume a Chinese offensive bringing in just 250,000 men (half the potential "500,000" men) there would be plenty of warning even if they did it "quickly" - because it would take something like 1-2 months to collect up the force and acclimatize them. If the do it slowly we would even now be hearing of an increase in the number of troops permanently stationed in Tibet and have aerial recce/sat photos of large camps where acclimatized troops would be housed.

I might be wrong but China has some railway lines leading to Lhasa and another leading to the area north of Arunachal Pradesh. The train lines to Lhasa are "oxygen enriched" Altitude sickness is a real problem at those altitudes.

Any Chinese attempt at incursion would have to be accompanied by visible signs of massing of troops and material and a clear increase in the number of trains and flights. The ability to gather such information in 2011 (as opposed to what happened in 1962) would be the prime factor is preparing for a Chinese misadventure.

The interesting thing about any Chinese attack on India is that they will eventually pour down into the plains from the mountains. In the plains there will be no altitude sickness and they will be able to function efficiently provided their logistics lines is intact. One of the reasons why the roads in AP were kept rudimentary is that any attacker who breaks through a defending line will be bale to make rapid progress on existing road infrastructure. The absence of roads will bog an attacker down and make his logistics lines ad his position vulnerable to air attack. Supply helos taking off from Tibet will be lifting off with limited loads from 5000 meters, while helos on the Indians side - taking off virtually at sea level are in a better position.

So while it is important to recall the threats that come from China it is completely absurd if anyone feels that no one has been preparing all these years.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 13 May 2011 11:45

shiv wrote:

Any Chinese attempt at incursion would have to be accompanied by visible signs of massing of troops and material and a clear increase in the number of trains and flights. The ability to gather such information in 2011 (as opposed to what happened in 1962) would be the prime factor is preparing for a Chinese misadventure.

The interesting thing about any Chinese attack on India is that they will eventually pour down into the plains from the mountains. In the plains there will be no altitude sickness and they will be able to function efficiently provided their logistics lines is intact. One of the reasons why the roads in AP were kept rudimentary is that any attacker who breaks through a defending line will be bale to make rapid progress on existing road infrastructure. The absence of roads will bog an attacker down and make his logistics lines ad his position vulnerable to air attack. Supply helos taking off from Tibet will be lifting off with limited loads from 5000 meters, while helos on the Indians side - taking off virtually at sea level are in a better position.

So while it is important to recall the threats that come from China it is completely absurd if anyone feels that no one has been preparing all these years.

Shiv good roads in Arunachal helps us in two ways. One to launch an offensive from Arunachal into Tibet. The other to help us defeat Chinas incursion inside Arunachal. Unlike 1962, where we practically gave up the entireArunachal, we will not be able to do the same again.

Also a second defeat at the hand of PLA would be traumatic, even more than 1962. To defeat PLA in Tibet, we will need to go on the offensive, and for that we need good roads in NE and north-western India. Air transport is the most expensive form of transport. It can only complement land supply route, it cannot replace it all together. Moreover air supply/transport can operate only if the airspace is cleared of all opposing fighters, i.e. PLAAF, and all the enemy's air-defense systems have been suppressed.

Regarding the advance notice of Chinese troops massing on border is a red herring. It over estimates our capabilities. Just as most of the major wars have been war of attrition, the 1 month sustainability of 5 lakh PLA troops is significant. Please note inpite of having over 11 lakh strong IA, we will not be able to position all of them against any incursions against Chinese. Some will have to be positioned on the Durand line. Some will have to be held in reserve.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 13 May 2011 12:12

^^^How about first checking how many division PLA has and where those 34 Infantry+Other Divisions are going to come from?

jai · Post by **jai** » 13 May 2011 12:48

Sir ji, IMO, the larger threat is in laddakh as there is full infra - including roads all the way into pok. This is also where our troop concentration is thin and infra almost non existant. There is more to the chinese troops in pok than just infra construction, and I would not be surprised if there is a tacit deal between the pukis and the cheenees to hand over all disputed pok to cheenees in Liu of weapons and protection. the cheenees need pok more than auranchal as they can connect to/already are connecting to gwader, Karachi and other ports / pipelines they would be happy to develop to ensure their oil supply . Noise around auranchal is to fool India - it's a decoy to get us to amass our troops here while the real action will happen in laddakh. We are missing the tell tale signs there - maximum loc violations are in laddakh and not arunanchal + the pok situation + the pakis pushing for demilitarization of Siachen etc etc are all small small pieces of the same larger plot. Imagine the pressure on the valley and rest of India if laddakh and all pok is taken by the cheenees - this is the game IMO.
Having said so, let me also add that the cheenees will achieve their objectives here quite comfortably and are more than halfway there already - considering that for decades India has not made any claims on pok as Indian territory and is not doing so even now, and that the cheenes are already there - 11 k men boots on the ground - supposedly Indian ground, and our great leaders are doing Did.dly squat.

Kailash · Post by **Kailash** » 13 May 2011 12:55

China boosts maritime patrols

China announced this week it had boosted its fleet patrolling the disputed waters of the South China Sea, even as a maritime agency warned, in a new report, of “new challenges” to the security environment as a result of resurfacing territorial disputes.

This week, a 1,500-ton-class vessel has been enlisted in the southern port city of Guangzhou as the thirteenth ship in the South Sea fleet, which also employs two aircraft and a helicopter, State media reported.

This followed a substantial expansion in marine surveillance forces announced last week, amid rising disputes with many neighbours across both the East China and South China seas.

D Roy · Post by **D Roy** » 13 May 2011 12:59

This 34 division talk is total BS. especially at a time when the Chinese Army ( which is what the PLA calls itself now) is going to be the primary beneficiary of a 500 k cut to active duty strength in the overall military.

post Gelf war and kosovo both India and China know the nature of war has changed and are undergoing transformation. In the early nineties both bought time to face the RMA challenge from the west. hence peace and tranquility and even an offer to cooperate on the LCA were on the table. but somehow post 2000, chicom decided that a growing india was a direct challenge to their medium term aim of cornering global energy resources.

The chinese are focusing more on special forces, tube artillery, missile batteries and underground launch pads vis a vis us. they know and we know that flankers based out of tibet do not stand a chance. the kunming air corridor needs to be watched though.

we on the other hand have exercised with our yamrikhan buddies precisely to take out their UG facilities and knock out any jeep mounted mortar shit they might try. we are also seeking to counter their missile/ rocket forces via enhanced airpower. GMTI is the name of the game baby.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 13 May 2011 15:37

D Roy wrote:This 34 division talk is total BS. especially at a time when the Chinese Army ( which is what the PLA calls itself now) is going to be the primary beneficiary of a 500 k cut to active duty strength in the overall military.

post Gelf war and kosovo both India and China know the nature of war has changed and are undergoing transformation. In the early nineties both bought time to face the RMA challenge from the west. hence peace and tranquility and even an offer to cooperate on the LCA were on the table. but somehow post 2000, chicom decided that a growing india was a direct challenge to their medium term aim of cornering global energy resources.

The chinese are focusing more on special forces, tube artillery, missile batteries and underground launch pads vis a vis us. they know and we know that flankers based out of tibet do not stand a chance. the kunming air corridor needs to be watched though.

we on the other hand have exercised with our yamrikhan buddies precisely to take out their UG facilities and knock out any jeep mounted mortar shit they might try. we are also seeking to counter their missile/ rocket forces via enhanced airpower. GMTI is the name of the game baby.

Can you please elaborate on why you believe that flankers based out of tibet do not stand a chance?

Also what about flankers and the proposed J-20 based outside Tibet and supported by air-air refueling? Granted that this is not the most optimum deployment and at best can be used to stem the attrition of fighters flying over LAC or MacMohan line, but this is still one scenario which our planners have to counter.

About the 34 division talk, let us get something very clear. Currently China has land-border issues with only INDIA. All other borders have been demarcated and settled. So these borders can be left to border guards and the predominant might of PLA and PLAAF be made to bear on India. I am assuming that when the future Sino-India conflict does arises, Sino-Taiwan issue will be relatively quite or will already have been settled. China has plans to link Tibet with a railway line to Xianjing and other places. The Bejing-Lhasa railway line will not be the sole railway line into Tibet.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 13 May 2011 18:42

jai wrote:Sir ji, IMO, the larger threat is in laddakh as there is full infra - including roads all the way into pok. This is also where our troop concentration is thin and infra almost non existant. There is more to the chinese troops in pok than just infra construction, and I would not be surprised if there is a tacit deal between the pukis and the cheenees to hand over all disputed pok to cheenees in Liu of weapons and protection. the cheenees need pok more than auranchal as they can connect to/already are connecting to gwader, .

I would agree with this part. Any fighting in AP would be a diversion.

But the thing to repember is that any Indian who is sees a war in PoK and then says "Oh look at this dead body. i'ts a chini in PoK. Let us not touch our cousins the Pakis" would be a fool. War in PoK means an attack to split Pakjab followed by the threat of nukes by Pakistan. Both the Chinese and the Pakis are asking for nuclear war.

In such a war anyone who feels he can win is a blithering idiot. India certainly won't win. but neither will Pakistan or China. But overall Indians will shiver more in their dhotis no matter what the outcome. That might be what is stopping us from making war.