West Asia News and Discussions

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 04 May 2011 08:35

ShaymD,

Of course they to aid and abet it!

About $45m in aid to Egypt each year is expressly for democracy promotion and civil society support.

Bush, and later Obama wanted Mubarak to hold open elections, and he thumbed his nose at them.

America wanted Omar Suleiman to take over after Mubarak - well he did, but the people rejected him.

America wanted Amr Moussa to become the leading post Suleiman, post Mubarak figure, but that hasnt worked out either.

The point is that America is not the decisive factor. Its just one among many. Important, but neither necessary nor sufficient.

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 04 May 2011 12:19

Johann wrote: We live in a world of top down, bottom up and horizontal actions. Its the easy way out (and the Middle Eastern tendency) to see everything as top down.

+1 beautifully stated sir.

It is a common cognitive bias to see the world as a created, engineered product. Same cognitive bias that favors creationism over evolution.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 04 May 2011 14:57

Perhaps this thread (and its future editions) should use the antiquated term WANA in the title. Everything from Sudan to Morocco seems to influence happenings.

Coming to the other point, is Iran being antagonized on 2 fronts, with US trying to wean away Russia by strengthening the arms of Turkmen warlords in CA (Great Game 2.0) and the GCC developments on its southern shores.

So the only developments keeping Iran together is that the situation on its western flank (Khuzestan) has not reached boiling point yet, in a way the madness in Iraq is helping matters by keeping Khuzestan under the Turkish/Turkic radar for now.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 06 May 2011 13:02

Two Al Qaeda leaders killed by 'U.S. drone strike' in Yemen four days after huge intelligence haul from Bin Laden's lair - Dailymail.co.uk

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 07 May 2011 02:25

Steps to bring down tensions.
Iran, Pakistan urge enhanced trade ties

Thu May 5, 2011 11:39AM
Share | Email | Print
Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi (R) and Chairman of the Senate of Pakistan Farooq H Naik meet in Tehran on May 5, 2011.
Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi and Pakistani Senate Chairman Farooq H Naik have stressed the importance of realizing the two countries' potential to increase trade.

In a meeting in the Iranian capital of Tehran on Thursday, the Iranian minister said Tehran and Islamabad have the potential to promote economic cooperation.

He added that Iran made great achievements in various industrial and scientific fields during recent years and expressed the country's readiness to transfer electricity to Pakistan.

The top Iranian diplomat said the two countries can establish a joint security commission.

Salehi also offered Pakistan to join the Ashgabat five-party agreement, which establishes a Central Asia-Persian Gulf transit corridor.

On April 25, foreign ministers of Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Qatar and Oman signed an agreement on transportation and the transit of goods via railway, sea and land.

The deal establishes a transit corridor which connects the Persian Gulf and Central Asia and facilitates the transit of goods between regional countries.

The Pakistani Senate chairman, for his part, said as two important members of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), Iran and Pakistan should expand relations in all fields.

Naik arrived in Tehran on Wednesday at the head of a delegation to hold talks with senior Iranian officials.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 07 May 2011 14:45

@ Shyamd: Please check your mail.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 07 May 2011 16:48

^^ Received.

UAE issues 'stapled visa' to PoK residents

Islamabad, May 5 (PTI)

The United Arab Emirates has begun issuing '''stapled visas'' to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir residents, including its ''Prime Minister'' Sardar Attique Ahmed, a media report said today.

The practice of issuing "stapled visas" is new and previously visas were stamped as usual on the passports, the Pakistan Observer newspaper reported today.

PoK "Prime Minister" Sardar Attique Ahmed Khan, who holds a Pakistani diplomatic passport, was issued a stapled visit visa by the UAE Embassy in Islamabad on Tuesday, the report said.

China had sparked a diplomatic row with India last year by issuing stapled visas to residents of Jammu and Kashmir.

Relates to Feb 11. Shows how serious this is.
Report: Qatar emir foils coup attempt amid growing tensions

The Emir of Qatar, Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, succeeded over the past weekend to foil a coup attempt against him, Arabic press reports claimed on Monday. They added some 30 senior army officers were detained while some others were put under house arrest.

The news about the military coup attempt coincided with a statement issued by figures in the ruling families of Qatar, who oppose the current regime, announcing they are not recognizing the legitimacy of the Emir Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, while they backed his brother, now exiled in France, Abdul Aziz bin Khalifa in Hamad Al-Thani. The statement was signed by 66 opposition figures, including 16 from the ruling Al Thani family. The directed serious charges against the Emir, including the establishment of relations with Israel, total coordination with the United States of America and breaking the Arab ranks. They also claimed his close family members and his wife's family members are involved in cases of corruption and social injustice.

The signatories dedicated in their statement some harsh words for the wife of the Emir, Sheikha Mozah bint Nasser Al Misnad. They considered her public appearances in the media as contrary to the traditions in Qatar and as a ''shameful.'' They also said the ruling family forces leading traders and businessmen to share with them their profits.

It all makes sense now. Iran backs off, Iran giving benefits to Pak. De-escalation in tensions.

Pakistan mediates in Saudi-Iran row: Report
Saturday, 30 April 2011 01:38

Share

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has made considerable progress in its bid to defuse tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran which followed the uprisings against Gulf regimes, news reports here said yesterday.

State Minister for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia was designed to mediate between the two countries, Express Tribune newspaper reported. Strained relations between them touched their lowest ebb after Riyadh accused Tehran of instigating demonstrations in Bahrain and interfering in Arab countries’ internal affairs.

The Saudi foreign minister expressed support for Pakistan’s efforts in promoting peace and stability in the region during his talks with Khar, media reports said. However, Saudi Arabia did ask Pakistan to use its influence over Iran to persuade it to avoid interfering in Arab countries’ affairs.

Riyadh’s positive response came after Khar had extensive discussions with key Saudi leaders including Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal, Secretary-General of the National Security Council Prince Bandar bin Sultan and Saudi Interior Minister Mohammad bin Naif.

Islamabad took the initiative after Tehran expressed its desire to improve relations with Saudi Arabia that have worsened after Riyadh sent troops to Bahrain to help Manama curb bloody demonstrations.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 07 May 2011 18:16

But Syria shows no signs of "de-escalation". Moreover, are you sure that Bahraini monarchy will survive? How strongly can TSP "mediate" under current dispensation? TSP itself is the next in line for "destabilization".

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 07 May 2011 18:34

Syria - supposedly the situation is quite different. Only certain areas have large scale protests. This seems more about prices and stuff. Not sure to what extent countries are playing a role. Its quite confusing. The fact that KSA intel built up relations with MB in Syria and Syria closed the border with Jordan gives us an indication as to what is happening.

Bahrain - totally different story. They allowed things to happen to send a message to a supposed ally. Bah monarchy will survive. The majority are with the govt.

Not sure yet about what the deal is with TSP. I am confident Iran FM had talks in Oman. So this is all part of the de-escalation process. Iran has its tail between its legs currently. Its not just TSP, Turkey too is mediating.

Iran's FM Due in UAE

TEHRAN (FNA)- Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi is scheduled to pay one-day official visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the near future, an Iranian diplomat confirmed on Saturday.

Tehran's Ambassador to Abu Dhabi Mohammad Reza Fayyaz said that Salehi will discuss latest developments in the region.

Speaking to MNA, Fayyaz stated that the visit will be the continuation of Salehi's earlier trips to Oman and Qatar to exchange views on recent developments in the region.

He further expressed the hope that the visit would "yield good results."

In addition to the regional developments, Salehi will also discuss bilateral relations with Emirati high-ranking officials, including UAE's prime minister and foreign minister, Fayyaz said.

Salehi, heading a high-ranking Iranian delegation, arrived in Doha on Monday morning for an official daylong visit to the Muslim Persian Gulf state.

Salehi held separate meetings with Qatari Crown Prince Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, his Qatari counterpart Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani and Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani in his trip to Doha.

At the end of his trip to Doha, Salehi held a meeting with the Iranian expatriates residing in Qatar. He returned to Tehran on Tuesday morning.

Iran and Qatar have recently augmented efforts to further expand ties and cooperation in all the different political, economic, defense and security fields.

The two Persian Gulf littoral states recently signed several protocols to increase mutual cooperation, specially in different areas of security.

Salehi also visited the Omani capital of Muscat on Wednesday for an official day-long visit to hold talks with senior Omani officials, including Omani Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Saidon on regional developments and bilateral ties.

The UAE are negotiating on the 3 islands issue.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 07 May 2011 21:26

It is impossible to characterise the Syrian protests as purely Sunni Arab and there for Muslim Brotherhood. That characterisation falls down on two counts.

The Syrian coast which is the heartland of the Alawi has seen major protests, as has the Kurdish North-East.

Even within Sunni areas the heart of the protests are the small towns of the Hauran, the fertile area of southern Syria around Damascus.

This is an area that stayed loyal during the 1975-82 confrontation with the Muslim Brotherhood, which was an urban rather than rural/provincial small town movement.

These small town Sunnis had in fact been a key part of the Baathist social coalition that seized power from urban elite Sunnis. The government rewarded them with development and policies that favoured small land holdings and small town businesses.

The switch in development policies under Bashar in the early 2000s has been hugely beneficial to urban elites (including many Sunnis), but been hard on that Sunni rural support base. That is why a profoundly conservative Sunni town like Aleppo is so quiet while small towns like Douma erupt.

The Brotherhood is scrambling to try and capture some of this energy and unhappiness (especially since many Sunni Arabs are organising through local mosques), but its not at all clear that they are bound to dominate or direct the protest movement.

The Ikhwan itself just isn't that good at inspiring Arabs anymore because they've been so bureaucratised and cautious, while most Arabs are convinced that Salafi Jihadis only bring destruction. Ikhwani organisation in Syria in particular is nothing like what it is in Egypt since the confrontation in Hama in 1982.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 08 May 2011 02:25

Indian minister cancels Saudi visit due to illness

By GHAZANFAR ALI KHAN | ARAB NEWS

Published: May 7, 2011 21:35 Updated: May 7, 2011 21:35

RIYADH: India's Defense Minister A.K. Antony has postponed a planned visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar that was supposed to start Friday due to an undisclosed illness, Saudi Ambassador to India Faisal H. Trad said in a telephone interview with Arab News Saturday.

The visit will be re-scheduled at a mutually agreeable time later this year to explore expanding military relations as they pertain to combating terrorism and piracy.

Trad spoke about trade and labor relations between India and Saudi Arabia, pointing out that approximately 775,000 Saudi visas were issued to Indians in 2010 through the Kingdom's New Delhi embassy and Mumbai consulate. Most of these visas were for laborers or pilgrims. The Saudi consulate in Mumbai issues around 4,000 entry visas a day while the embassy in New Delhi grants around 800 different types of visas a day.

A small number of these were were multiple-entry visas for Indian business executives.

"We have already issued some 1,500 such visas so far," said the ambassador.

The Saudi diplomatic missions, he said, were showing similar patterns in terms of the issuance of visas to Indians over the first four months of 2011. The number of Indian workers in Saudi Arabia is expected to exceed two million by year's end, he added, despite tighter screening of job seekers and visitors to the Kingdom.

Indians wishing to work in the Kingdom are required to produce criminal background check.

"Saudi missions in India introduced this measure last year, and the missions will continue to request so-called Police Clearance Certificates when considering visa applications," said the ambassador.

On commercial front, Trad pointed out that the two countries are working to hold a joint economic commission meeting within the next few months. This ministerial-level meeting will be held in New Delhi. He also pointed out that Saudi Arabia supplies about 30 percent of India’s crude oil demand.

"Securing a steady supply (of oil) is in the interest of both countries," he added.

Iran Related:
Saudi King, Rehman Malik discuss ways to strengthen bilateral ties PDF Print E-mail

RIYADH, May 7 (APP): Federal Minister for Interior Rehman Malik called on Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz here on Saturday and discussed ways to strengthen the existing fraternal relations between the two countries.The Interior Minister presented message of President Asif Ali Zardari to King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz.He also presented greetings and the best wishes of the President and Prime Minister of Pakistan, which were warmly reciprocated.The Minister said the leadership and the people of Pakistan have high regards for the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and leadership and people of Saudi Arabia.

The Minister conveyed the gratitude of the Pakistani leadership and the people of Pakistan to the Saudi leadership for their support and assistance to the people of Pakistan during all difficult times.
Both the sides reiterated to continue their cooperation for peace and security of the region and the world.
The meeting was attended by Prince Saud Al-Faisal, Minister of Foreign Affairs; Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, Chief of General Intelligence; Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz, Secretary General of National Security Council; Prince Miteb bin Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, Minister of State, Member of the Cabinet and Commander of the National Guard; Prince Abdulaziz bin Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, Advisor to the King; Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan Abdulaziz bin Ibrahim Al-Ghadir and Pakistani Ambassador to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ayaz Muhammad and Pakistan’s Charge d Affairs Ayaz Muhammad Khan.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 10 May 2011 07:16

Syrian security forces on a house to house spree to crush the rebellion in the coastal city of Banias: Link.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 10 May 2011 07:38

Religous freedom in Egypt

Sectarianism stalks Egypt

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 10 May 2011 17:27

Britain is leading the lobbying effort of the Security Council to get the UN to intervene in Syria: Link.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 10 May 2011 23:17

The are reports that Asma al-Assad and the children have flown to the UK.

Asma's family is Syrian, although her father is a Harley Street consulting cardiologist, and she was born and brought up in England attending the best schools.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ondon.html

There was a point in the Egyptian revolution when it was reported that Gamal Mubarak (Hosni's son and heir apparant) had left for the UK (his mother, Hosni's wife is half British) but that was incorrect.

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 11 May 2011 13:32

There seems to be interesting times in the mid east, on one side Arabs seems to be united probably under some form of singularity...on the other hand Iran is actually going for more fracture...The internal clash between Khameini and Ahmenidejad has come out in the open....interesting statement from Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei

The era of Islamism has come to an end. We had an Islamic revolution in 1979. But the era of Islamism is finished."

What is the maning of this, if Islamism is failing in Iran then what is the necessity of Islamic Republic...
Secondly it seems Persian memes are slowly getting injected in the strategic calculus of Iran...Why now?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 11 May 2011 21:42

Qatar may be thrown out of the GCC if they don't get their acts together or perhaps before that there will be a coup there.

GCC states have invited Jordan and Morrocco to join GCC.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 11 May 2011 22:06

Samudragupta wrote:There seems to be interesting times in the mid east, on one side Arabs seems to be united probably under some form of singularity...on the other hand Iran is actually going for more fracture...The internal clash between Khameini and Ahmenidejad has come out in the open....interesting statement from Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei
The era of Islamism has come to an end. We had an Islamic revolution in 1979. But the era of Islamism is finished."
What is the maning of this, if Islamism is failing in Iran then what is the necessity of Islamic Republic...
Secondly it seems Persian memes are slowly getting injected in the strategic calculus of Iran...Why now?

the gurus on BRF have commented that it is crucial for India to bring out Iran but not Persia. Islamism was adopted in Iran b/c it offered a framework for the Iranian ambitions to express themselves. if Islamism itself becomes associated as a by product of Arabs, then it will loose its luster in Iran. the rise of Jihadism has done exactly this. the Iranians are extremely uncomfortable that they are put in the same grouping as Sunni fundoo abduls running around screaming nonsense. this is cause for major shame in modern Iran. they have become, "Oh, Iran.....isn't that another one of those Arab countries which are going crazy"!!!!!!! that has become the interpretation of Iran. and I think this is bad news for Islamism in Iran. my knowledge of this history is not enough to dig deeper, so a question to the gurus: what do you guys think? is Islam looses its affiliation with grandeur and empire and becomes associated with Arab abduls, will Iran become disenchanted with it? and more importantly, will that be a return to Persia? return to Persia seems like bad for India, or at least that is the general consensus on BRF...

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 12 May 2011 08:35

The What Cooperation Council?

Freeing Israel from its Iran bluff

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 13 May 2011 08:52

Some blogs on West Asia

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 13 May 2011 19:21

Its monolithism that is failing in Iran and his is happenning with the simultaneous rise of Turkey in the WA...last time the Turks raided the borders of Persia..they have an ascending monolithism in their hand via Shia Islam..it is recognized fact that Shia Islam helped separate Persia from the Ottomans...but the Iranians themselves have diluted the concept of Shia separate identity through Islamic identity by Khomeini. Note that it is Khomeini who have started the concept of Shias praying behind Sunni Imams.The shia revolution could not be exported into other nations , so the concept of Islamic solidarity as propounded by Khomeini stopped within the borders of Iran rather wahabi Sunni Islam exported by SA and actively participated by Pakistan and MB was gainig ascendency..the net result was the coming out of party of Arab Islam manifested in 9/11.
So what will be the result of the Iranian Islamism? the genie is out of the bottle and cannot be bottled again.
At this critical juncture comes the ascending role of Turkey and its own version of soft Islamism..remember the earlier resurrection of Islam by Turks after the Mongol invasion through old Sufi order which was neither Shia nor Sunni . The old order in Iran is gradually loosing the ideological urge to control and channelize the Persian expansion...IRCG is getting more aggressive and moving in the internal poltics of Iran...the Iranian elite desparately wants the IRCG out of internal politics but they cannot provide the Shia audience inside Iran the necessary ideological and material expansion to position themselves as the leader of the Ummah, the latest incident in Bahrain and added to this....the danger is that if the shia expansion is not channelize properly it will easily fell to the Turkish Islamism....the Persian elite in Iran clearly identifies this threat and hence the renewed push for Persian Nationalism.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 14 May 2011 09:21

Post-Mitchell, the air of resignation on Israel-Palestine might linger

Twilight for Qaddafi?

Syria: Too Big to Fail?

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 14 May 2011 21:45

People flee border town of Tall Kalakh into Lebanon

Gunmen kill 6 soldiers in Bayda province of Yemen

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 14 May 2011 22:19

Samudragupta wrote:There seems to be interesting times in the mid east, on one side Arabs seems to be united probably under some form of singularity...on the other hand Iran is actually going for more fracture...The internal clash between Khameini and Ahmenidejad has come out in the open....interesting statement from Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei
The era of Islamism has come to an end. We had an Islamic revolution in 1979. But the era of Islamism is finished."
What is the maning of this, if Islamism is failing in Iran then what is the necessity of Islamic Republic...
Secondly it seems Persian memes are slowly getting injected in the strategic calculus of Iran...Why now?

For a while I had been suggesting that Iran need not continue as it is for a very long time. The mullahcracy may be severely reduced in power and another transitions is likely. In fact before the Arab "spring" my calculations for change was actually based on Iran-watching.

But if mullahcracy is ovethrown, Iran will have to compensate for the loss of "theological focus" as the national focus, with an extra dose of nationalism. So the paradigm-changers could be under greater pressure to heighten external posturings than the current regime.

But overthrowing the mullahcracy with greater personal liberties and greater access to the outside world will gradually change that region back into a more open society which we can interact with.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 16 May 2011 02:35

UAE sets up a mercenary force, to combat whom? Iran?

Secret Desert Force Set Up by Blackwater’s Founder

...
Mr. Prince, who resettled here last year after his security business faced mounting legal problems in the United States, was hired by the crown prince of Abu Dhabi to put together an 800-member battalion of foreign troops for the U.A.E., according to former employees on the project, American officials and corporate documents obtained by The New York Times.

The force is intended to conduct special operations missions inside and outside the country, defend oil pipelines and skyscrapers from terrorist attacks and put down internal revolts, the documents show. Such troops could be deployed if the Emirates faced unrest in their crowded labor camps or were challenged by pro-democracy protests like those sweeping the Arab world this year.

The U.A.E.’s rulers, viewing their own military as inadequate, also hope that the troops could blunt the regional aggression of Iran, the country’s biggest foe, the former employees said. The training camp, located on a sprawling Emirati base called Zayed Military City, is hidden behind concrete walls laced with barbed wire. Photographs show rows of identical yellow temporary buildings, used for barracks and mess halls, and a motor pool, which houses Humvees and fuel trucks. The Colombians, along with South African and other foreign troops, are trained by retired American soldiers and veterans of the German and British special operations units and the French Foreign Legion, according to the former employees and American officials.
...
...
Last spring, as waiters in the lobby of the Park Arjaan by Rotana Hotel passed by carrying cups of Turkish coffee, a small team of Blackwater and American military veterans huddled over plans for the foreign battalion. Armed with a black suitcase stuffed with several hundred thousand dollars’ worth of dirhams, the local currency, they began paying the first bills.

The company, often called R2, was licensed last March with 51 percent local ownership, a typical arrangement in the Emirates. It received about $21 million in start-up capital from the U.A.E., the former employees said.

Mr. Prince made the deal with Sheik Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and the de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates. The two men had known each other for several years, and it was the prince’s idea to build a foreign commando force for his country.
...
...
He and Mr. Prince also began looking for soldiers. They lined up Thor Global Enterprises, a company on the Caribbean island of Tortola specializing in “placing foreign servicemen in private security positions overseas,” according to a contract signed last May. The recruits would be paid about $150 a day.

Within months, large tracts of desert were bulldozed and barracks constructed. The Emirates were to provide weapons and equipment for the mercenary force, supplying everything from M-16 rifles to mortars, Leatherman knives to Land Rovers. They agreed to buy parachutes, motorcycles, rucksacks — and 24,000 pairs of socks.
...
...
While the documents — including contracts, budget sheets and blueprints — obtained by The Times do not mention Mr. Prince, the former employees said he negotiated the U.A.E. deal. Corporate documents describe the battalion’s possible tasks: intelligence gathering, urban combat, the securing of nuclear and radioactive materials, humanitarian missions and special operations “to destroy enemy personnel and equipment.”

One document describes “crowd-control operations” where the crowd “is not armed with firearms but does pose a risk using improvised weapons (clubs and stones).”
...
...
But she said that any Americans working on the project might run legal risks if they did not get government approval to participate in training the foreign troops.

Basic operational issues, too, were not addressed, the former employees said. What were the battalion’s rules of engagement? What if civilians were killed during an operation? And could a Latin American commando force deployed in the Middle East really be kept a secret?
...
...
The first waves of mercenaries began arriving last summer. Among them was a 13-year veteran of Colombia’s National Police force named Calixto Rincón, 42, who joined the operation with hopes of providing for his family and seeing a new part of the world.

“We were practically an army for the Emirates,” Mr. Rincón, now back in Bogotá, Colombia, said in an interview. “They wanted people who had a lot of experience in countries with conflicts, like Colombia.”

Mr. Rincón’s visa carried a special stamp from the U.A.E. military intelligence branch, which is overseeing the entire project, that allowed him to move through customs and immigration without being questioned.
...
...
Making matters worse, the recruitment pipeline began drying up. Former employees said that Thor struggled to sign up, and keep, enough men on the ground. Mr. Rincón developed a hernia and was forced to return to Colombia, while others were dismissed from the program for drug use or poor conduct.

And R2’s own corporate leadership has also been in flux. Mr. Chambers, who helped develop the project, left after several months. A handful of other top executives, some of them former Blackwater employees, have been hired, then fired within weeks.
...
...
But by last November, the battalion was officially behind schedule. The original goal was for the 800-man force to be ready by March 31; recently, former employees said, the battalion’s size was reduced to about 580 men.

Emirati military officials had promised that if this first battalion was a success, they would pay for an entire brigade of several thousand men. The new contracts would be worth billions, and would help with Mr. Prince’s next big project: a desert training complex for foreign troops patterned after Blackwater’s compound in Moyock, N.C. But before moving ahead, U.A.E. military officials have insisted that the battalion prove itself in a “real world mission.”

That has yet to happen. So far, the Latin American troops have been taken off the base only to shop and for occasional entertainment.
...
...

asprinzl · Post by **asprinzl** » 16 May 2011 07:11

Not only Islamism but Islam the religion is on death bed in Iran. Iran is well on her way to become the first nation to leave Islam. Zoroastrian faith is slowly increasing in numbers. According to my sources (both Indian and Iranian Zoroastrian sources) based in the US, from a mere 50 000 to 100 000 returnees between 1979 to 1990, in the last couple of years more than two million Muslim Iranians have returned to their ancient religion. Many millions of others have turned atheists and Christians.
Avram

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 May 2011 07:23

Avram,
I met a man from Fars who is a current US citizen. He said he was tired of the false messages that Persians had to listen to since 652. After his daughter goes to college he wants to become a Buddhist. He said Sammana (Sarmas aka Buddhists) were very common in Fars before advent of Islam.

I told him Hinduism welcomes him!

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 16 May 2011 22:13

Has any country in the past converted or reconverted into a specific religion in a very very short span of time without the use of Sword ?

Rupesh · Post by **Rupesh** » 17 May 2011 04:36

OT.
At one point of time Buddhism had become the majority religion in Bharat, people did return to Sanathana Dharma without use of sword.
Also SK became entirely EJ in a few decades

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 17 May 2011 18:43

RSAF and Navy stop Iranian boats with aid activists trying to give aid to Bahrain. Number of ships have reduced after RSAF and Navy gave warning. Saud al Faisal, KSA FM issued warning that any boats enter any GCC territorial waters will not return to Iran safely.

pandey · Post by **pandey** » 17 May 2011 19:12

Rupesh wrote:OT.
At one point of time Buddhism had become the majority religion in Bharat, people did return to Sanathana Dharma without use of sword.
Also SK became entirely EJ in a few decades

if only we "assume " that Buddhism & Sanatan dharma r two different religions.this is a western perspective.at any given point of time India had many spiritual philosophies coexisting together which was very different from modern understanding of the concept of religion.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 17 May 2011 19:31

VikasRaina wrote:Has any country in the past converted or reconverted into a specific religion in a very very short span of time without the use of Sword ?

Mongolia?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 May 2011 23:10

Hamas Foreign Minister: We Accept Two-State Solution With '67 Borders

Hamas' Deputy Foreign Minister Ghazi Hamad told NPR's Robert Siegel that the Islamic political party has accepted a two-state solution that respects the 1967 borders.

Robert asked Hamad in a very straight forward way: "If Israel were to accept a two-state solution in which Palestine would be in Gaza and the West Bank and have its capital in Jerusalem, is that an acceptable aim that Hamas is striving for or is that in and of itself insufficient because there would still be a state of Israel?"

"Look, we said, frankly, we accept the state and '67 borders. This was mentioned many times and we repeated many times," said Hamad. Here's his full answer:

Ghazi Hamad on All Things Considered

Hamas, which has been known for its rocket attacks and suicide bombings, just signed a reconciliation with its secular rival Fatah. In 2007, Hamas expelled Fatah from Gaza and the Palestinians ended up with a divided government. According to analysts, the reconciliation between the two groups means Hamas is trying to moderate its views to appeal to the West.

Hamad told Robert that people should not judge Hamas on what it used to be before:

Ghazi Amad on All Things Considered

"I think Hamas shows a lot of flexibility. We became more pragmatic, more realistic. Hamas is ready to go more and more for political solutions. Hamas could be a good player in making peace in this region, but don't use sticks against him, and punishment against Hamas," Hamad said, referring to the sanctions imposed after Hamas won a decisive majority in the Palestinian Parliament in 2006.

In an analysis piece by the Associated Press, they point out that Hamas' more moderate stance may be genuine:

Both Hamas officials and outside analysts say the group has learned some bitter lessons during its four years in power in Gaza. The impression is that Israel's blockade, which caused widespread hardship in the crowded territory, a blistering Israeli military offensive two years ago and the uprisings throughout the Arab world have all factored into its thinking.

Hani Masri, a Palestinian commentator who sometimes mediates between Hamas and its secular rival, Fatah, said Hamas realized that to lead the Palestinians, it needs "acceptance by the international community, particularly the West."

In his interview with Robert, Hamad did criticize Israel. He said the ball is now in its court and it needs to decide whether it's willing to accept a Palestinian state with its capital in Jerusalem and whether it's willing to "evict" its settlers in Palestinian territory.

"We are just fighting against occupation," Hamad said. "We are figting to liberate our homeland. This our ambition."

Hamad also said Hamas was "not in the pocket" of Iran or Syria. Hamad made much the same comments on the BBC's Hardtalk. But PressTV, the Iranian government's English-language news service, reports that Hamad told them Hamas would "never recognize Israel."

For it's part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that Israel wants nothing to do with a Palestinian government that includes Hamas.

"A leopard has sunk its teeth in our flesh, in the flesh of our children, wives, our elderly, and we will not be tempted to believe that this leopard has now changed its spots," Netanyahu told the AP. "We will not ignore its voracious growls. We will strike it down."

Note we've added the interview as it aired on All Things Considered at the top of this post.

Israel's time is running out. But Netanyahu is not the man to lead them to peace. If Israel thinks it will keep the status quo going, its making a gross miscalculation.

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 19 May 2011 23:15

I like the Netanyahu's analogy, Hamas is so much like TSP, just because terrorists vote themselves into power it doesn't make them honourable peace loving people.
As far as the time is running out bit is concerned, only time will tell. I'm sure Israel does possess enough suit cases to make sure it exists as a viable country.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 May 2011 23:35

Interesting thoughts from Dagan.
Ex-Mossad chief Dagan: Military strike against Iran would be 'stupid'

Meir Dagan adds that there is no risk of the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt and that it would be better for Israel if Bashar Assad was removed from power, for it would stem support for Hezbollah and undermine Iran's involvement in the area.
By Yossi Melman

Former Mossad head Meir Dagan believes that an air force strike against Iran's nuclear installations would be "a stupid thing." His statement is an unprecedented challenge to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is trying to give the impression that he believes the air force should attack Iran.

In the past Dagan had expressed his opposition to an Israeli military strike against Iran but his statements were not as blatant and were voiced in closed sessions, quoted in the media as originating from "a senior security source."
Mossad, Meir Dagan

Former head of Mossad Meir Dagan.
Photo by: Ofer Vaknin

This time he spoke in public at a conference of the senior public service organization, held at Hebrew University. This was Dagan's first public appearance since he left the service at the end of 2010.

Dagan says that Iran has a secret infrastructure for its nuclear program which is working in parallel with the legitimate, civilian program, but only the latter is under international inspection.

"Any strike against that [the civilian program] is an illegal act according to international law," Dagan said. Dagan says that contrary to the situation in Iraq in which the nuclear plant of Saddam Hussein was bombed in 1981, Iran has dispersed its nuclear sites across the country, making an effective attack difficult. He added that Iran has a proven ability to move its nuclear infrastructures from place to place, in order to hide them from international inspectors and intelligence services.

"If someone in Iran decides to build a laboratory for centrifuges [for uranium enrichment] in the basement of some school he has no problem doing this," Dagan said.

The former Mossad chief stressed that the problem "is not that our air force is not good. It is. But there is great doubt about its ability to carry out the mission fully and achieve all the goals. The biggest question is what will happen afterwards. There will be war with Iran, which is one of those things which we know how it starts but not how it finishes. An analysis of Iran's capabilities - they have impressive capabilities and they can shoot missiles at us for many months. Assuming the rate is two or three per day, and then use Hezbollah, which has tens of thousands of Grad-type rockets and hundreds of long-range missiles, Scuds and others. In addition they will use Hamas. There is also a risk that Syria will enter the war."

Dagan warned that an air force strike against Iran has "potential for significant complications and it is best to avoid war (s ) with non-beneficial results and also those with no lasting effect. It is important to remember that war is only one option among many alternatives."

Responding to a question on what Israel should do, he said "what is being done to Iran, and is reported in the media [the international media], is working." He was referring to the reports about clandestine sabotage against the Iranian efforts to achieve nuclear capability.

Dagan also said that "there are endless power struggles in Iran between the various groups and the assumption that the regime is homogeneous is entirely unrealistic."

He said that the lack of harmony in Iran applies to its nuclear policy and to its policy on the Middle East. Dagan noted that Iran's top priority is developments in Iraq, and its second priority is the struggle against the United States for influence in the Persian Gulf.

As for developments in the Arab world Dagan said that he does not read the situation as a "tsunami of change in the Middle East." What is happening reflects historical divisions in Arab societies.

Regarding Egypt, Dagan said that what accelerated the process which led the masses to the streets was not "the Internet revolution," given the lack of computers for the masses. He said that the catalyst stemmed from the ambition of Hosni Mubarak's wife to see their son, Gamal, succeed his father as president. This angered the Egyptians and brought the masses to the street.

Dagan said that what happened in Egypt was not a revolution, but a change in leadership. He also believes there is no risk of the Muslim Brotherhood taking over because they themselves fear that this would irreparably harm the Egyptian economy.

He said that it would be better for Israel if Bashar Assad was removed from power because this would stem support for Hezbollah and undermine Iran's involvement in the area, giving greater say to moderate Sunni forces.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 May 2011 06:50

Obama announces US support for 1967 borders for Israel and creation of Palestine.

Netanyahu says 1967 borders are not defensible.

I guess its follow up of Bin laden killing. Need to appease the Arab street.

Recall OBL was livid about Palestine issue.

I expect his next move will be on Cashmere.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 May 2011 09:49

>> Has any country in the past converted or reconverted into a specific religion in a very very short span of time without the use of Sword ?
a lot of south and central india was buddhist or jain at one time ... gradually hinduism filtered back in albeit jain and buddhist thoughts and gurus exist fluidly and peacefully within the wider consciousness of hindus too.
likewise buddhist missionaries too it to Sri lanka from where theravada buddhism spread to myanmar,yunnan,thailand/laos/cambodia/java
shaivite hinduism spread to khmer(cambodia) and hinduism & buddhism in general to bali and java
buddhism spread to todays pak, afghanistan, tibet...

I hope to visit Bali and the immense site of Borobudur in java someday...soon hopefully.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_bQ07syioSek/T ... budur1.jpg

ROP has a stellar track record in spreading by the sword and cutting those who refused to convert. jaziya also put social and economic pressure to convert even in some 'peaceful' ROP regimes. ROL spread in a slow and struggling fashion and took momentum when both the eastern and western roman kingdoms accepted it as a state religion and started patronising it. the conversion of Constantine was a key event iirc. so one can say in ROL case, waging war on the kafir was not really its mode of expansion (except the failed crusades) but more a question of state patronage and economic benefits - atleast in europe. in south and north america usually some zealots or samaritan type missionaries went along with expeditions for their own reasons and started conversions?

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 20 May 2011 10:25

GD, Like Pandey ji said earlier, Jains or Budha was not really alien religion for Indic lands. They were more integrated than we can imagine. They were hardcore Indic thoughts presented to Indians by Indians in Indian languages and philosophies in more refined or crude way depending upon your pick.
I am sure you know lot many Jains and would be hard-pressed to figure if they are any different from rest of Indic faiths. Same for Sikhs and Budhists.
Even in my own mind, if someone mentions that He/She is Jain/Buddhist/Sikhs, I assume them to be my co-religionists. Don't react the same way for other religious denomination.

As far ROP, I guess in RoP majority countries or where rulers were RoP followers, The religion permeated so much into daily life and day to day activities, that it was easier for Kaffirs to convert and make their life peaceful. A crude analogy would be that It is easier to become a cricket fan and make your social life easier in India than follow baseball. On top of it, the pressure from RoP'ean society to convert. So although not everyone converted by the sword, but conditions were created to convert. In neighboring Pa'stan, MoYo was was being denied kaptaanship till he was Christian or atleast that was the grapevine till poor guy grew beard.

So to go back to the discussion of Iranians going back to their Persian roots, there has to be some social pressure,incentive or sword to make them denounce the faith of their forefathers and take up the noble faith of their ancestors. I don't see any of it as of now nor anything such rain bearing cloud is on the horizon.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 May 2011 22:37

Vikas we can discuss that in off-topic thread or the Iranian thread.

Meanwhile Nightwatch on Obama statement

Nightwatch 19 May 2011

Reactions to the US President's Statement.

Palestinian Authority: President Mahmoud Abbas expressed his appreciation for US President Obama's efforts to resume permanent peace talks in order to reach a final status agreement, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said. There are no substantive comments from the Palestinian Authority or from Fatah leaders.

Hamas: A Hamas spokesman accused US President Obama of deception and bias in favor of Israel. He said his movement does not believe in US policies because they favor Israel and deny Palestinian rights. Another Hamas spokesman said Obama needs to take concrete steps to protect the rights of the Palestinian people and the Arab nation.

Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood leader Essam el-Erian said US President Obama's speech was disappointing and that the American strategy of covering dictatorial presidents in Syrian, Yemen and Bahrain remains the same. El-Erian said there is no decisive decision to immediately withdraw from Iraq or Afghanistan, and the US threats to Iran remain the same.

Israel: Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that the US President's proposal is defenseless.

Special comment: The public positions are not necessarily the actual positions in talks. Nevertheless, one may depend on the Hamas statement as conveying a true position. The ambiguous and negative tones of the Palestinian responses are instructive.

Long experience has demonstrated that grand gestures not bargained for are feckless. Free concessions always beget the inevitable question, "so what else?"

The US diplomatic experience reinforces a disinclination to give away key positions because the practice invariably backfires. George Kennan described Soviet negotiating tactics as pocketing anything conceded and using the concession as the floor for bargaining for more concessions. That is precisely how the North Koreans and most states negotiate.

{And Pakis!}

Today's statement also is somewhat misleading. The notion that the Israelis and Palestinians have to "start somewhere" ignores decades of similar proposals by every US administration. The Palestinians and Israelis have "started somewhere" dozens of times. The Oslo Accords represent arguably the high water mark of past "starts from somewhere" and might have been the jumping off point for any new initiative.

For Israel, acceptance of the 1967 borders would mean that Israeli Army sacrifices in the 1973 Yom Kippur War were for nothing.

Finally, if the US proposal was intended to win Arab support, it seems to have miscarried. Bahrain was one of the few states that responded positively. The Saudis, Syrians and Jordanians said nothng, during this Watch. A dirty secret of the Arabs is that they promise a lot but do little to support the Palestinian cause. Thus, Iran's ability to gain influence with Hamas is a direct result of Arab reservations about the wisdom of a real Palestinian state.

So if it was not the Arab political mind why was this grandstand taken? I think it was for the Arab street mind after OBL killing.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 20 May 2011 23:34

Its definitely to appease arab (GCC) street. I disagree with nightwatch conclusions. They have been very close. But the people at the table (yasser arafat) was the main problem.
We get the ilusion that the US is behind all the peace proposals. This is not true. The saudi's play an extremely powerful behind the scenes role.

The days of KSA - US security for oil days are pretty much over. KSA is doing everything in its national interest and will go it in its own way from now on. This doesn't mean the end of US - KSA relations but the partnership won't be the same.
I do have a feeling Obama will do his best, but Bibi won't agree and he's not a man of peace.

Israel's time is running out and the US's blunder in the ME will be shown. Obama knows that he needs to fix this problem otherwise, israel will stare at the barrel in the near future.