Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 2011

[shravan]

Not strictly an IED Mubarak, but 5 people got their 72 from yahoos through AK phyrr.

Police say gunmen killed 5 Shiites in SW Pakistan

QUETTA, Pakistan (AP) — Police say gunmen killed five minority Shiite Muslims in what appeared to be a sectarian attack in Pakistan's southwest.

Six people also were wounded when the gunmen on a motorbike sprayed a minibus with bullets on Wednesday in Quetta, the capital of Baluchistan province.

[shravan]

Bullet-riddled bodies of 4 security personnel found in Mastung

QUETTA: Bullet-riddled bodies of four security personnel were found in Degari intersection of tehsil Dahst area in Mastung district on Tuesday, some 45 kilometres from the provincial capital Quetta, a levies official said.

...

They said the deceased had left Quetta on Saturday for work in Marwar, a major coalmine field. The relatives were handed bodies for burial after the completion of medico-legal formalities.

[Raja Bose]

With ranks like Major and Hawaldar, must be Paki Army or ISI wallahs? Or do those shalwar clad FC pandus have such ranks too?

[shravan]

Two soldiers killed in Orakzai

2011-05-17

ORAKZAI AGENCY – Two security personnel were killed and one injured by a remote-controlled bombing of an army patrol in Upper Orakzai Agency May 17, while a separate IED attack in Bajaur Agency injured five civilians.


The bombing hit the patrol at Gal village in Dabori, the headquarters of Upper Orakzai, official sources told Central Asia Online.

[sum]

Under US heat, Pak goes after Al Qaeda terrorists

After the killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, the United States has pressured Pakistan 'to do more' to nab Al Qaeda activists and key Taliban leaders including Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar. It is suspected that Omar is hiding in the Quetta city of Balochistan.

Responding to the US's pressure, Pakistan has speeded up its efforts and is tracking Al Qaeda terrorists all across the country. On Tuesday, Pakistani security forces arrested senior Al Qaeda operative Muhammad Ali Qasim Yaqub alias Abu Sohaib Al Makki from Karachi.

According to the Pakistan army , Al Makki was a Yemeni national who was working directly for Al Qaeda leaders along the Pakistan-Afghanistan borders.

The arrest comes in the wake of US Senator John Kerry visiting Pakistan. Kerry had urged the Pakistan government to take action against Al Qaeda operatives and other terrorists.

Prior to the arrest of Al Makki, Pakistani security agencies had arrested two brothers in Swat Valley [ Images ] for alleged links with two Al Qaeda operatives, who owned the compound where Osama bin Laden was killed.

Razaul Hasan, 22 and Ziaul Haq, 24, were arrested from Shangla district in Swat Valley. They were accused of having links to Arshad Khan and Tariq Khan, who were killed with Osama and were working as the Al Qaeda chief's couriers.

In another such incident in Swat Valley, security forces arrested Alam Zeb, 19, from Kabal village. He is the grandson of the imam of a Florida mosque, who was arrested in the US along with his two sons on Saturday.

The imam was charged with financing the Taliban operating in Swat, led by Maulana Fazlullah, popularly known as Mullah Radio.

Raids and arrests against Al Qaeda sympathisers and activists are going on in different parts of Pakistan.

Security forces have raided many houses and hideouts of radicals in Abbottabad and surrounding areas. They have arrested several terrorists suspected of having links with Osama.

The intelligence forces have also raided many seminaries in Islamabad [ Images ], Rawalpindi, Attok and Jhelum districts and arrested several suspects.

These agencies have checked the bio-data of the students and collated nearly 90 students' details for verification. Military intelligence is also investigating some foreign students who were receiving education in these madrassas.

These operations are being carried out by MI agencies. Civil intelligence agencies like the police's special forces are not part of it.

Military intelligence doesn't inform the local police about these operations, as there have been instances when the latter have helped militants flee before the raid.

Guess danda is the only way to make Pak even pretend to act...

[SSridhar]

There is an interesting discussion going on here about the developing scenario in Pakistan.

Some history is in order. Osama bin Laden, various Taliban leaders including Mullah Omar and several Punjabi Taliban leaders such as Maulana Masood Azhar or Fazlur Rehman Khalil (Harkat-ul-Ansar Chief) et al have spent time together or have been close to the top ideologues in Jamia Binoria or taught by the same Mufti Nazimuddin Shamzai. Shamzai was the teacher of JeM's Maulana Masood Azhar, HuJI's Qari Saifullah Akhtar and Taliban's Mullah Omar. Shamzai brokered the deal between Osama and Mullah Omar and brought him from the Sudan to Jalalabad with the blessings of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. These leaders have also had extensive contacts with Fazl-ur-Rehman and Sami-ul-Haq of Jama'at-Ulema-e-Islami (JUI) for a long time. In fact, it was the thousands of talebs sent from their Deobandi madrasseh who turned the tide decisively in Mullah Omar's favour in a few critical battles when the Taleban were fighting the internecine war with various mujahideen faction. Hence, their nexus is strong and deep. Osama himself had been quite close with the Ikhwani Jama'at-e-Islami (JI) and the Ahl-e-Hadith Lashkar-e-Taiba. Though he may be gone from the scene today, their sympathies lie with his approach which can be expected to be carried forward by Ayman al Zawahiri, another Ikhwani. Though there have been some differences ideologically among themselves, they have all coalesced against a common enemy and some common objectives. I, for one, therefore believe that rather than compartmentalizing these various groups according to ideological or ethnic identities, they should be treated as just one unit. For example, they have shared training facilities, safe houses etc for years as we know even before 9/11. Since 9/11, the great stress under which they have existed, has only brought them even closer. The point I am making is that we should no longer compartmentalize Afghan Taliban, Punjabi Taliban, Pakistani Taliban as individual units with separate minds of their own. They may still have their own goals, but they are not diverse.

Certainly therefore, they will jointly work towards coveting WMDs from the Pakistani arsenal. After all, hasn't Pakistan always claimed that theirs was an Islamic bomb since the Christians, Jews and the Hindus had already possessed one ? And, who could be a better Muslim than the Salafi/Wahhabi/Deobandi/Ahl-e-Hadith and Ikhwani adherents of Islam ? Aren't the corrupt political class helping the Great Satan ? Aren't they tying down the hands of the PA from retaliating against audacious US operations and their agents such as Davis ? No PA officer/footsoldier could believe that Osama bin Laden lived in Abbottabad without the PA/ISI being aware of that fact. They would be incensed, like the rest of the country, that he was somehow betrayed and may suspect the political class of being in cahoots with the infidels. The only defenders against the onslaught from Yahud, Hunud and the Nasara are the AQAM, whose head was murdered by the Americans and his body was disposed off in the high seas unceremoniously. This should be the reasonable thought passing through the minds of many senior and most middle-level officers of the PA. I am certain that the foot soldiers of the PA would subscribe wholeheartedly to this considering how much the society itself believes in this. I expect a sense of sympathy among most of the PA for the efforts of the AQAM. After Op Geronimo, Kayani had to rush to various garrisons and address the officers and the soldiers. He could only have been critical of the high handedness of the US. I would guess that he was also critical of the political class as that would have been the only way to assuage the feelings of the PA units (as evidenced by the fact that one officer told Gen. Kayani that he was 'ashamed of the operation' to which Kayani agreed). The PA has outsourced action against NATO supplies to its new-found blue-eyed boy, Imran Khan.

The Islamists outside the PA and the Islamists within the PA are increasingly becoming indistinguishable in their worldview. Certainly, the most influential section of the ulema (and therefore the society) is militant Deobandi, not the more circumspect Berelvi though the latter may still exist in absolutely larger numbers. I include Wahhabis and Ahl-e-Hadiths under the Deobandi classification. Not that the Berelvis are less jihadist or less fundamentalist (as Taseer's case demonstrated) in nature. In such a milieu, it is difficult to judge with any certainty when the PA would lose the nuclear weapons. The 'cradle-to-grave' vetting mechanism which the Strategic Planning Directorate (SPD) proudly claims to its American interlocutors or the multiple layers of security it claims to have in place for guarding the crown jewels, is as hollow as the claim by GoP that PA is fighting against global terror. In a society that is overwhelmingly believing that 'Islam is in great danger' and conspiracies are being hatched against the Muslims, who can implement a comprehensive vetting process more common in civilized societies and guarantee its success ? How can the SPD even find men who do not subscribe to these falsehoods or jihadi ideologies ? Why should we even assume that the SPD itself is above board in these Islamist matters ? There has been a long list of jihadi Islamist Generals as DG of ISI or as Corps Commanders of the PA. The top leadership of PA may present a different face to the American interlocutors but the distrust of and anger against the infidel among the rest of PA is complete and cannot be reset. Why should we expect that the nukes may not fall into more adverse hands in Pakistan ?

It is prudent to proceed on the assumption that it is indeed the case.

[svinayak]

http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/20 ... c=obinsite

The failure of Pakistan's leaders to provide security over the last 3 decades
Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Tuesday, May 17, 2011 - 10:51 AM Share

From proven provider John McCreary: "Most of the strategic decisions in the past 30 years have been aimed at making Pakistan more secure against India. Pakistan is now much less secure against India that at any past time. Moreover, it has failed to control the Islamist forces that it is responsible for unleashing. Pakistan is possibly the most dangerous place on earth."

Pakisan does not face a meaningful offensive threat from India
Neither the Indian civilian strategists in South Block nor the Indian Army staff harbor serious irredentist dreams of retaking the basins of the Indus and the Jhelum Rivers.

The last consequential Indian offensive operation against (undivided) Pakistan was in December of 1971 when something on the order of half a million Indian Army troops joined the Bengali insurgents and forced a complete (and humiliating) surrender of the Pakistan Army of East Pakistan.

A few Pakistani officers may still harbor irredentist dreams of re-taking the Vale of Kashmir, but serious military planners on both sides of the border have war-gamed that scenario hundreds of times (Pakistan always loses, either in days or in weeks).

India isn't going to invade Pakistan and Pakistan cannot, sustainably, invade India.

It is certainly correct to say that Pakistan is less secure today than it was 30 years ago, but the sources of deep insecurity are closer to home than New Delhi

I think we spend just a bit too much time focusing on metrics and factors that are not driving events.

All this great Geopolitical stuff, and big toys are great entertainment, but the core reasons driving John's conclusions are more internal than big picture, and far more substantive than inherently unstable deals with China.

If Pakistan is the most dangerous country in the world, it cannot, at the same time be stable and secure.

The military picture is just one dimension, while the civilian ones (econ, political, demographic, cultural, physical) are the ever-growing tumor growing out the side of the military's stomach.

In 2009, WP credited my studies of Afghanistan's population figures for a major CIA downward estimate (from 33.4 m to 28m). It was actually about 24 tops by credible sources.

No offense but even if the 180m Pakistan figure is off by half, 90 million unstable Pakistanis facing serious civilian obstacles is not a pretty picture.

China and India, by comparison, make Pakistan a gnat.

It is bigger by many factors than either Iraq or Afghanistan, hugely complex, facing huge challenges, and with less and less options absent substantial gridlock, unresolved conflicts and bifurcations (future not a continuum of past patterns).

Unless somebody really has a clue about the big picture in Pakistan's future, quickie deals with China, instead of peace with its natural neighbors is a recipe for continued instability

[svinayak]

Nightwatch For the Night of 17 May 2011

Pakistan-China: Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani began a four-day visit to China on 17 May. During the visit Gilani will meet Premier Wen Jiabao, President Hu Jintao and several economic officials, according to the Chinese.


Beijing supports Pakistan in its fight against militancy, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. Gilani told the press that Pakistan considers China its best friend.


"We appreciate that in all difficult circumstances, China stood with Pakistan. Therefore we call China a true friend and a time-tested and all-weather friend," Gilani told Xinhua news agency in an interview.

"We are proud to have China as our best and most trusted friend, and China will always find Pakistan standing beside it at all times."


Comment; What Gilani said is factual. China cannot provide some of the high tech weapons the US can provide, but it has built ports and infrastructure and Chinese weapons are the backbone of all the high-tech armed services - the air, naval and missile forces. All of these actions have supported Chinese interests in developing a set of secure corridors for raw materials to reach China without transiting the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. The Pakistanis fail to understand that their interests are secondary.


What Gilani and the Pakistan military leadership also fail to grasp is that China disrespects an unstable Pakistani government that cannot handle domestic Islamist terrorists and other violent internal problems. China requires a stable, dependable and powerful nuclear-armed Pakistan to threaten India in a potential future conflict, on Chinese orders. It has little use for or respect for the feckless civilian government in Islamabad. It also is very aware of the duplicity of Pakistani intelligence services that work with China but also train Uighur terrorists.


China holds the dominant position in Pakistan, as it has for 40 years, but its interests in suppressing Islamist terrorists are closer to those of the US than to the Pakistan Army and intelligence agencies, except to the extent that Pakistan-based terrorists constrain India.


The timing of Gilani's remarks indicates they were pointed at US Senator John Kerry, whom Gilani met the day before his interview in China.

[RajeshA]

SSridhar garu,

thanks for a concise and insightful piece.

I just want to touch upon the growing strength of the Salafi/Wahhabi/Ahl-e-Hadith/Deobandi/Ikhwani combo in Pakistan.

In the coming years, one would see several attacks on the Shias and Barelvis from the Salafi/Wahhabi/Ahl-e-Hadith/Deobandi/Ikhwani (SWADI) combo! Any attack by one group gives the other, an excuse to retaliate. The problem is that the Barelvis and the Shia do not have the military strength to take on the SWADI combo. Any reprisals from the Barelvis should be even more brutal and more importantly directed at the leaders of the SWADI group.

I don't think it is all that relevant that their ideologies are so much similar, especially from a non-Muslim viewpoint. Much more relevant is that they have different group identities, group identities that constitute a certain rivalry.

One needs to create a military arm of the Barelvis or to strengthen already existing militant Barelvi Sunni Tehreek. Any attack by the SWADI combo should result in a massive retaliation by the Barelvis, escalating their division. India has the choice of seeing the SWADI combo fully decimating the separate Barelvi identity and incorporating their followers into their own ranks, or we can see the SWADI combo more than matched by Barelvi militants and holding their own. Both scenarios lead to more Islamists, but the choice is between consolidated Islamic front against say India, or a civil war amongst the Islamists.

India needs to get into the fight. Now it is not clear how far the Sunni Tehreek would be amenable to Indian control even if we fund and arm them. In case they prove to be not amenable, then India can find herself another group of Barelvis, as the Pakistanis did with the Kashmiri Azaadi movement.

We can channel this funding through our own Barelvi community.

[ManishH]

Simlarily, Shiite militias should be funded using Iranian support if necessary. A lot of sectarian attacks on Shias have taken place recently in Dera Ghazi Khan. If well armed Shia militias start operating there, that can even have bearing on TSP uranium ore extraction plants in Dera Ghazi Khan.

[jaibhim]

Here is a piece wanting peace whilst at the same time living in the perpetual state of denial. Another piece of yellow journalism and whose writer is a well known India baiter. Members may please note the white lies dished out here with regard to terror.


Source The Dawn website May the 18th 2011.
Far From the Paths of Peace
__________________________________
All relationships are based on mutual respect and trust, and diplomacy is no different. Undoubtedly, the last decade has seen more downs than ups in Pak-India ties but just as things seemed to be settling down, the death of al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden has slowed down the process. In fact, the use of strong language at a time when peace in the region is fragile betrays the mindset of those who rally to its cause.

The Indian government was slow to react to the killing, giving a carefully-worded statement after a fortnight, reiterating the need for Pakistan’s co-operation to reduce terror on its soil. “The government is pressing Pakistan as well as mobilising international opinion to press Pakistan to bring the real perpetrators of 26/11 attacks to justice,” Home Minister P Chidambaram said. He added India will engage Pakistan “wherever we can” on issues like visa, fishermen, cross-border trade, exchange of prisoners. “Those are matters on which we are engaging Pakistan. I don’t think there is dichotomy or contradiction. This is the policy spelt out by the Prime Minister and I think, this is the right policy,” Chidambaram explained.

Meanwhile, sources within the Indian government reveal that New Delhi has handed Islamabad a list comprising names of 50 most wanted men – 19 Pakistanis and 31 Indians – alleged to be hiding in Pakistan. The list includes the names of underworld don Dawood Ibrahim, Lashkar-e-Taiba founder and 26/11 conspirator Hafez Mohammed Saeed, founder of the Jaish-e-Mohammad Maulana Masood Azhar and Hizb commander and the head of the United Jihad Council Mohammad Yusuf Shah alias Syed Salahuddin.

While the Indian government officials refrained from vitriolic attacks, those associated with the armed forces did not mince their words when it came to taking up on the American lead. Both Indian Military Chief General V K Singh and Air Chief Marshal P V Naik said that India has the teeth to hit terrorists holed up in Pakistan.

This had the Pakistani establishment dishing out a befitting reply to insinuations by India about a similar covert attack on Pakistani soil. “Any other country that would ever act on assumption that it has the right to unilateralism of any sort will find, as far as Pakistan is concerned, that it has made a basic mistake. We see a lot of bravado in our region… from the military, air force, which state that this can be repeated… that sort of a misadventure or miscalculation will result in a catastrophe,” said Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary.

Despite this series of provocative statements between the two countries, Press Trust of India quoted government sources who maintained that Osama’s killing would not change the “universe of the discourse” between India and Pakistan. Sources added that “talks with Pakistan will continue… We have to engage them with these issues (terrorism). We have to focus on the issues of concern that we have with Pakistan.”

Similarly, in an interview to the Sri Lanka Guardian from Chennai, B. Raman insisted that “India should continue the peace process with Pakistan firmly and should not allow any bearing of Abbottabad episode on continuing process of normalisation of relations.” Raman is the former Additional Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India and former head of the counter-terrorism division of India’s external intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW).

Contrary to the popular theory of linking up the Kashmir issue to the problem of cross-border terrorism alleged time and again by the Indian government, on 9 May, Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Omar Abdullah laid to rest all these lingering doubts.

Abdullah, in a press conference, rejected reports of links between Kashmiri militant groups and al Qaeda, saying during his tenure he had not seen a single intelligence report suggesting so. He said that New Delhi had made it clear that India wouldn’t want to strain relations with Pakistan because of the Osama episode, and would like relations to remain normal.

This official muted response is rather well-thought out if the recently released Congressional Research Service is to be relied on.

Congressional Research Service is an independent research wing of the US Congress which prepares periodic reports for lawmakers. In its report, it claimed that there may be some apprehension in New Delhi that the development could hasten a US withdrawal from Afghanistan in ways that could be harmful to India’s foreign policy interests, the report elaborated. India is “averse” to seeing a Kabul government too friendly with Islamabad in the future and has a keen interest in precluding the resurgence of Islamist extremist groups in Afghanistan, which it fears could be the case if the Pakistani military has excessive influence on the anti-Taliban campaign’s endgame, the report stated.

As the war of words rages on, the least people on both sides of the border expect is that their respective governments try to control the violence and bring those who benefit from the unrest to book. With a long history of deceit to learn from, one must not forget the painful lessons of war. At this crucial stage, like so many more, it would be folly to let violence derail both the countries from the paths of peace. It’s always wise to save war rhetoric for another lifetime.

Editor’s Note:

According to latest Indian news reports, Wazhul Kamar Khan, one of the men listed in the ‘Most Wanted’ fugitives list that India had given to Pakistan, is living in India.

IBN Live said the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government is in a damage control mode after an embarrassing twist in India’s 50 most wanted list handed over to Pakistan.

Union Home Secretary GK Pillai said the Government has ordered an investigation.

“The Home Ministry is responsible if the list was not updated and 44-year-old Khan’s name was not removed from it. The accused had been arrested and in this case the Red Corner Notice should have been deleted. When Mumbai Police arrested him in 2009 we did not update the list. We will verify the list and come out with a statement. The list is prepared by various agencies and then given to the Home Ministry. We have handed over this list to Pakistan. We will take responsibility if the list was not updated,” Pillai told CNN-IBN.

Pillai, however, added that one mistake didn’t affect the credibility of the most wanted list.

The writer is an Indian journalist and the recipient of Agence France-Presse Kate Webb Prize for her work in Indian-administered Kashmir.

[shravan]

Blast and gunfire reported in Quetta’s Aktharabad area

QUETTA: A loud explosion was heard in Quetta’s Akhtharabad area on Wednesday.

[SSridhar]

India needs to get into the fight.

RajeshA, that determination has not yet been made, it appears from various bits and pieces that are emerging. An overcautious India may take a lot more time to come to that conclusion. However, we are not going to be able to avoid a fight with Pakistan, both in a literal and a figurative sense. Pakistan has concluded that India and the US are forming an axis and has decided to go with PRC the whole hog. Already after 26/11, it surrendered to PRC authorizing it to negotiate with India on its behalf. The new indicators clearly show that a desperate Pakistan is surrendering more and more to PRC. Internally, it is increasingly becoming very unstable. A breakdown of US-Pakistan relationship will push it more into Chinese hands and also make it more vulnerable internally. The new 'Friendship Pact' with China, the supply of TNWs and the Chashma 3 & 4 reactors will encroach on remaining Pakistani sovereignty a lot more. A false sense of security may push the PA already steeped in bravado may lead to tactical stupidity. Attacking India will then be a sureshot and time-tested way to stem the centrifugal forces. But, it would be fun if the old tanzeems-now-turned-foes suddenly decided that it was an opportune moment to strike at PA itself !! PA may not be able to fight a two-front war then. A lot rides on how the US-Pakistan relationship changes in the next few weeks and months.

Now it is not clear how far the Sunni Tehreek would be amenable to Indian control even if we fund and arm them. In case they prove to be not amenable, then India can find herself another group of Barelvis, as the Pakistanis did with the Kashmiri Azaadi movement.

We can channel this funding through our own Barelvi community.

We should be extremely careful in entangling ourselves with these Islamist jihadi types. Even if we decide to get involved with the Sunni Tehreek in the absolutely worst case, it cannot be through Indian berelvis at all. Let us insulate Indian Muslims from these; we already have enough problems on our plate even otherwise. There are other non-communal faultlines within Pakistan such as ethno-linguistic sub-nationalism that should be exploited. As I have already felt, first we have to determine that Pakistan has crossed the point of no-return and needed to be tackled down. Then, we should go about it comprehensively and as safely as possible.

[Lalmohan]

^^^ promoting further religious-sectarian division is not in India's interests

[A_Gupta]

China Daily on Groper's visit. Read between the lines.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/20 ... 529732.htm

[RajeshA]

India needs to get into the fight.

RajeshA, that determination has not yet been made, it appears from various bits and pieces that are emerging. An overcautious India may take a lot more time to come to that conclusion. However, we are not going to be able to avoid a fight with Pakistan, both in a literal and a figurative sense. Pakistan has concluded that India and the US are forming an axis and has decided to go with PRC the whole hog. Already after 26/11, it surrendered to PRC authorizing it to negotiate with India on its behalf. The new indicators clearly show that a desperate Pakistan is surrendering more and more to PRC. Internally, it is increasingly becoming very unstable. A breakdown of US-Pakistan relationship will push it more into Chinese hands and also make it more vulnerable internally. The new 'Friendship Pact' with China, the supply of TNWs and the Chashma 3 & 4 reactors will encroach on remaining Pakistani sovereignty a lot more. A false sense of security may push the PA already steeped in bravado may lead to tactical stupidity. Attacking India will then be a sureshot and time-tested way to stem the centrifugal forces. But, it would be fun if the old tanzeems-now-turned-foes suddenly decided that it was an opportune moment to strike at PA itself !! PA may not be able to fight a two-front war then. A lot rides on how the US-Pakistan relationship changes in the next few weeks and months.

The key to India coming out of the Pakistani vortex, created and supported by the Wahhabis, Anglos and Hans, is to keep Pakistan preoccupied with one or the other grave challenge to its survival other than India. A frontal confrontation is best avoided, as it pulls India further down into the vortex at the bottom of which lies the Indic Civilization severely hit and the other great powers laughing their hearts full.

There have been some passionate discussions on BRF what it really means when Pakistan transitions from joint US-Sino embrace into an exclusive Pax-Sinica!

As far as Tanzeems going after PA is concerned, I tend to look at them, as you originally put forth - as one and the same. Though I think, that certain Pushtun groups like TTP would like to keep their areas of domination to not be encroached upon by the Pakjabi Army. But the more Pan-Jihadist of the Tanzeems feel quite at ease with Pakistani Army as PA supports their aims in Afghanistan, in Europe, in West, against Israel and against India. The rift between PA and the Pan-Jihadists (Jihad against Yahud, Hunud and the Nasara) is basically due to the Saudi interests - to keep OBL's associates away from the Saudi throne, and not due to ideological reasons or differences in their mission statements. PA leadership identifies itself with the Sauds, where as the Pan-Jihadists identify themselves with OBL, both have the same vision, but differ in leadership. That is why TSPA is once in a while happy to deliver some Al Qaeda operative to the USA, for the Saudis consider him dangerous too due to his association with OBL, but TSPA is not averse to supporting the Pan-Jihadists in all other sense and means.

Once the Wahhabi rift between the House of Saud and OBL & Co disappears, and that could happen as the original AL Qaeda leadership gives way to the next tier, the minimal rift between Pakistani Army and AQAM could also disappear.

Now it is not clear how far the Sunni Tehreek would be amenable to Indian control even if we fund and arm them. In case they prove to be not amenable, then India can find herself another group of Barelvis, as the Pakistanis did with the Kashmiri Azaadi movement.

We can channel this funding through our own Barelvi community.

We should be extremely careful in entangling ourselves with these Islamist jihadi types. Even if we decide to get involved with the Sunni Tehreek in the absolutely worst case, it cannot be through Indian berelvis at all. Let us insulate Indian Muslims from these; we already have enough problems on our plate even otherwise. There are other non-communal faultlines within Pakistan such as ethno-linguistic sub-nationalism that should be exploited. As I have already felt, first we have to determine that Pakistan has crossed the point of no-return and needed to be tackled down. Then, we should go about it comprehensively and as safely as possible.

I retract my statement. Perhaps involving our Barelvi community would be unwise, but I am of the view that the Salafi/Wahhabi/Ahl-e-Hadith/Deobandi/Ikhwani) SWADI-Barelvi fault-line needs to deepened. This fault-line would ensure that space is created in Pakistani polity for the exploitation of other fault-lines based on ethnicity, etc. A consolidated SWADI combo stretching from Pushtun areas, to Pakjab to Sindh would seal the fate of Pushtunistan, Baluchistan as well as Gilgit-Baluchistan to always remain nailed to Pakistan. But if the SWADI-Barelvi fault-line leads to sectarian conflict in Pakistan Proper, then the periphery can disassociate itself from Pakistan much more easily.

In Yugoslavia, the Serb-Croatian war, i.e. a war between the two main dominant groups in Yugoslavia, allowed Slovenia to eject much more easily.

The problem right now is that Sunni Tehreek and the Shias vent out their anger after an attack on the KFCs and police jeeps rather than carrying out assassinations of militant Deobandi leaders. We need to fund and arm the Pakistani Barelvis to an extent that any attack on them results in a disproportionately higher retaliation on the Deobandi leadership, more vicious and more brutal.

[A_Gupta]

One awake Pakistani (the rarity of that deserves mention, if nothing else)
http://pakteahouse.net/2011/05/18/be-ghairat-brigade/

Having never experienced the rigours of war, our armchair generals extol the virtues of controlling Afghanistan for strategic depth through strategic tools (Haqqani, Hikmatyar et. al.). As if, God forbid, when the marauding Indian armies of Shiv would overwhelm Lahore, Karachi or Islamabad, the Pakistani security establishment would relocate to Kabul. As if the mountains of Afghanistan would offer the Pakistani strategic assets ‘safety’. It does not really matter that strategic assets are worth their name only if they can prevent this whole nuisance in the first place. And as if our army can do a Stalin from Kabul – the St. Petersburg of our glorious dreams – to mount the counterattack, smash the evil Hindu army and then finally raise the banner of Islam from the Red Fort.

For every act of violence and mayhem with a very obvious reason, a conspiracy theory or a grand history lesson is stuffed down out throat. The one common theme in all such nonsense is this; that there is no such thing as a Muslim terrorist or a Muslim criminal. It is the conspiracy of the Yahood-o-Hanood-o-Nasara alliance to discredit the Muslims and secure their assets. Never mind that the murderers of Usman bin Affan, Ali bin Abu Talib, Imam Hussain, Mansur Al-Hallaj and countless other illustrious stars of Islam (may God bless their souls) were also Muslim. Surely, had CIA, Mossad or RAW existed in that era, the ghairat brigade would blame these agencies for these odious misdeeds.

In short the ghairat brigade is telling us Pakistanis: Don’t trust your eyes. Don’t trust your ears. Don’t trust your any of your five senses.Trust their word and that is the word of God. End of story.

[anupmisra]

One awake Pakistani (the rarity of that deserves mention, if nothing else)
http://pakteahouse.net/2011/05/18/be-ghairat-brigade/

Alright, 'fess up! Which one of you BRFites wrote this piece? Hakimji, is this true?

...marauding Indian armies of Shiv...

[Lalmohan]

does anyone have a feel for how many ex-PA or other armed force veteran has joined up with the different religious tanzeems and lashkars? just as 'retired' afsars go on sabbaticals with the jehadis, no doubt NCO's and other ranks also do the same, either officially or otherwise

[ManuT]

Observation

The way to put the nuclear genie back into the bottle ...

as Rahul Shukla experienced in his testing it can't!

[RSoami]

One awake Pakistani (the rarity of that deserves mention, if nothing else)
http://pakteahouse.net/2011/05/18/be-ghairat-brigade/

Correct Angreji...lot of common sense..
Cant be no pious momeen..
not possible...

Regards

[Raghavendra]

Here is a piece wanting peace whilst at the same time living in the perpetual state of denial. Another piece of yellow journalism and whose writer is a well known India baiter. Members may please note the white lies dished out here with regard to terror.

Source The Dawn website May the 18th 2011.
Far From the Paths of Peace
__________________________________

The writer is an Indian journalist and the recipient of Agence France-Presse Kate Webb Prize for her work in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Name of author of article is Dilnaz Boga, this duffer got an award from abroad and has started talking their language, she implies by her cunning use of words that violence in kashmir is somehow not part of the wider global jehad declared by osama and his alqaeda front but the fact is 'Kashmiri jehad' has always been part of al-qaeda agenda and kashmiri groups have always been part of al-qaeda.

International Islamic Front http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/usa/IIF.htm

The earliest version of an Islamist terrorist coalition led by Osama bin Laden was the International Islamic Front, a loose coalition founded in Saudi Arabia in August 1990, which included Egypt's Jihad and Jamaa Islamiya armed outfits, Jordan's Mohammad's Army, Jammu and Kashmir's Ansar Movement and several other factions, including the AI-Muhajirun. However, on February 23, 1998, Osama bin Laden issued an edict (fatwa) calling for attacks on all Americans, including civilians, and announced the creation of the International Islamic Front for Jihad Against the Jews and Crusaders, in association with extremist groups from Egypt, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Jihad leader Ayman El-Zawahri, who is believed to be living in Afghanistan, is known to be a close associate of Osama bin Laden. The two, along with four militant groups, announced the formation of the International Islamic Front for Jihad against Jews and Crusaders.

The organizations whose membership in the International Islamic Front for Jihad Against the Jews and Crusaders was announced are the

Egyptian Jihad Group (Jamaat-ul-Jihad),

Egyptian Armed Islamic Group (Gama'a al-Islamiya),

Pakistan Scholars/Ulema Society (Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Pakistan),

Partisans Movement in Kashmir (Harkat-ul-Ansar),

Jihad Movement in Bangladesh,

Afghan military wing of the "Advice and Reform" commission led by Osama bin Laden.

According to reports, Osama bin Laden announced the formation of an International Islamic Front for Jihad against America and Israel on May 28, 1998. Osama is reported to have indicated that leaders of Islamist movements in several countries, including Pakistan had evinced interest in joining the front. Aiman Al-Zawahiri, leader of the Jamaat-ul-Jihad in Egypt is believed to have played a crucial role in launching this front. Reports also indicated that various Islamist outfits of Pakistan, like the Markaz Dawa Al Irshad (Centre For Preaching), its armed wing, the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), and the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) have become members of the International Islamic Front For Jihad Against the US and Israel.

Reasons for such lies are easy to understand, her bosses want to turn the narrative from violence in kashmir due to global jehad to, 'indian oppression' causing 'kashmiri freedom fighters' to massacre people. Then these terrorist apologists can mount an combined PR offensive on India to give up kashmir for peace.

Dilnaz must be busy these days licking her prize and keeping it clean all day long and not finding time to read up on the aims of LeT and AQ that she is fond of defending http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpap ... er554.html

Dilnaz Boga is stupid to be proud of a prize that she makes a point to mention it alongwith her name. That's not a prize, its a kutte ka patta that has been put around your neck to constantly remind you who is your master and for whom you should bark for she-dog

[Sri]

One of the things that we must understand that after years of trial and errors PA is now truly the Army of Allah. Whether other muslims look at them this way or not, they in their mind are convinced of the same. I remember watching a video where Al Zajira reporter is interviewing young PA officers just out of Abbotabad Academy. The islamic zeal in them was palpable. Any one who has seen that video would believe that OBL chose well to live there.

The problem is that this self acclaimed Allah's Army also has been on receiving end of any fight it has gotten into. Today the shine has come off and they need ideological clutches to rest on. They are now stuck in a hopeless confrontation with west, and this time they know they don't stand a chance.

All the bravado Kiyani and Pasha display is actually desperate 'ALL IN' move by a despotic gambler stuck with bad cards. Their hope is that others will pack up instead of raising the ante. Their fear is that someone will call the bluff. What they don't understand is that all other plays know the desperate moves and all they are doing is encourage this lonely gambler to bet even bigger before they call the bluff.

This is either the starting of the end of PA as it exists now, or worse starting of the end of Pakistan as it exists now.

[JE Menon]

From the Chinadaily article, this line is probably the only one which needs to be read - as it contains the central message which Beijing wants to convey:

"Any over-interpretation of Gilani's ongoing visit to China will prove to be superficial and speculative."

Basically meaning Paks can keep dreaming

[ranjbe]

A very sophisticated propaganda attack (death of Paki H&D by a thousand cuts? ) seems to have started by the US. Todays Washington Post has an article about stealth drones which operated over Abbottabad for months before the attack, immune to Pak radar.

Using unmanned planes designed to evade radar detection and operate at high altitudes, the agency conducted clandestine flights over the compound for months before the May 2 assault in an effort to capture high-resolution video that satellites could not provide.

The new drones represent a major advance in the capabilities of remotely piloted planes, which have been the signature American weapon against terrorist groups since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

In 2009, the Air Force acknowledged the existence of a stealth drone, a Lockheed Martin model known as the RQ-170 Sentinel, two years after it was spotted at an airfield in Kandahar, Afghanistan. The aircraft bears the distinct, bat-winged shape of larger stealth warplanes. The operational use of the drones has never been described by official sources.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/nat ... ml?hpid=z1

[Pranav]

The Chinese will be interested in squeezing the US out of Central Asia and gaining access to Afghan minerals. But they would probably like to do it in a low-profile way and at low cost.

You can expect the Chinese to advise the Paks to keep up appearances and get as much money from the US as possible.

[ramana]

SSridhar, make sure you blog that post.

Suggested Title: Probability of Jihadi takeover of TSP nukes.

-

It just struck me that TSP angst about India in Afghanistan is really about India friendly govt in Kabul. They think Kabul is the launch ponit of the thousand jihads on India in last millienium and if Kabul is under Indian control they are in a jaws of extinction. That is the strategic depth they seek and not all that hinterland etc.....

[anmol]

FT: America must hug Pakistan ever closer
By Vali Nasr
Published: May 18 2011 02:38 | Last updated: May 18 2011 02:38
In the wake of Osama bin Laden’s death, the US needs a new way forward in Pakistan. The conventional wisdom says Washington’s policy of engagement has been a failure, and argues for a return to the distrustful approach that dominated American policy during the early 2000s. This would be a serious mistake.

In the decade after 9/11 the US has looked to the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s spy agency, to hunt al-Qaeda. We paid the government of Pervez Musharraf handsomely, both to co-operate in the war on terror, but also so the US need not deal with Pakistan directly. The policy let the US, against all evidence, to believe Pakistan was on its side, with inevitable revelations of ISI collusion with terrorists blamed on elusive “rogue elements”.

President Barack Obama changed this approach, by ending reliance on the ISI and charging the Central Intelligence Agency to go in on its own. This boosted the hunt for bin Laden, and saw the US kill more terrorists in Pakistan than anywhere else. But behind this military success lay greater diplomatic engagement, billions in aid and the promise of a long-run US commitment. The Kerry-Lugar-Berman aid bill, many rounds of dialogue and American help for flood victims all played a part.

This was unfortunately a one-time policy. The CIA has killed bin Laden and embarrassed Pakistan’s military: it is no longer likely to enjoy the freedom it once did. The US/Pakistan relationship, so important to that country’s stability and our own success in Afghanistan, is now collateral damage. The problem remains that both nations have starkly different interests. The US wants to leave Afghanistan, and end terrorist threats, but Pakistan wants parity with India and domination over Afghanistan – and it is not easy to change the calculations of a nuclear power that harbours deep distrust of US motives.

America can try to persuade them that their view of their interests is wrong, or compel them to abandon them, but currently neither is on the cards. We are prepared neither to back Pakistan over India, nor offer a reasonable alternative to its strategic use of jihadi groups in the form of substantial military aid. The aid we do provide keeps Pakistan’s economy afloat, and secures co-operation here and there. But it is not large enough to influence basic strategic thinking.

When the dust settles from the killing of bin Laden, we must therefore choose between a long-run strategy to change Pakistan’s behaviour – with more aid, but also compelling retaliations – or our old policy of paying for short-run co-operation, while brushing off Pakistan’s worst transgressions. {What about that bombing back to stone age ?}

The latter policy is easier and cheaper, and if the mood in Washington is an indication, it now stands a good chance of becoming policy. Yet this is what we tried with Gen Musharraf, spending many billions only to see Pakistan become more dangerous and anti-American. It would neither reward Pakistan for changing course, nor mete out punishments for failing to do so. Instead it muddles through, probably confirming the worst impressions of US intentions and stoking anti-Americanism along the way.

The second, more difficult option is to offer more assistance{more than the current tens of Billion which is "cheaper"..}, and a more strategic relationship, in exchange for a genuine agreement to change course. This would entail deeper diplomatic engagement, coupled with substantially more help both to civilians and the military. It would also mean agreeing to Pakistan’s wishes for access to European and American markets, while addressing their security needs in Afghanistan – and more important, vis a vis India .

The flipside of such an approach, however, would have to be the credible threat of punishing Pakistan. The international community would have to sign up to possible diplomatic and economic sanctions, just as we have done on Iran or Syria. The US and Europe can threaten future aid cuts, sanctions against Pakistan’s military for support of terrorism and openly taking India’s side in disputes.

This second path would not be easy, but it at least offers the hope of avoiding the half measures of the past. We must also remember that, in the near future, Pakistan’s population will reach 350m, and its economy will be straining under the weight of burgeoning youth, weak infrastructure and dwindling resources. If we are worried about Pakistan today, we should think about that failed state of tomorrow.{isn't it already a failed state that can afford to make nukes but needs aid to help flood victims ?}

The author is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, and served as senior State Department adviser on Afghanistan and Pakistan 2009-2011

[Brad Goodman]

Message to Pakistan: China Will Not Replace U.S. Aid

According to the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, up to 70 percent of the funds given to the Pakistani military to support activities along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border have been misspent, and much has apparently been diverted to bolster Pakistan's arsenal against India. The U.S. government has accused the Pakistanis of utilizing just enough of the money allocated to fighting the Taliban to keep it at bay, ensuring a continuation of U.S. aid. This raises serious question about whether economic or military aid should even be continued.

If U.S. aid were cut to be off from Pakistan, what would the Pakistani government and military do? Work against U.S. interests? Become a nuclear proliferator? Share intelligence with China? It has already done or is continuing to do all of these things. So apart from some limited military benefits (i.e. acting as a supply line for U.S. forces in Afghanistan) the U.S. ultimately has little to lose if the relationship were to disintegrate even further. It has other options for supplying U.S. troops in Afghanistan, such as enhancing its military presence in Turkmenistan. Pakistan became the world's greatest nuclear proliferator when relations with the U.S. were solid and aid was flowing -- so what does the U.S. risk now? That it will do so again? If so, at least this time, the international community is in a position to do something about it.

[Lalmohan]

[nasr article] prime example of the "pakistani narrative" as told to mango unkil people, who internalise it and preach india is bad and aggressive onlee mantra...

[Brad Goodman]

Pakistan sets Mullah Omar deathtrap to disrupt U.S.-Taliban talks

An Afghan security official told TOLOnews on Tuesday that Pakistan’s spy agency is scheming to move Taliban leader Mullah Omar from Pakistan to Helmand province and then report his whereabouts to U.S. forces.

The Pakistanis hope Omar is killed on Afghan soil because it will prove terrorist leaders are also hiding in Afghanistan, the source claimed. The same Afghan official said Omar received the ISI order to leave Quetta from former Pakistani spy chief Hamid Gul.

[surinder]

The key to India coming out of the Pakistani vortex, created and supported by the Wahhabis, Anglos and Hans, is to keep Pakistan preoccupied with one or the other grave challenge to its survival other than India.

This is a very good acronymn, the nemesis of India: WAH.

[Brad Goodman]

Pakistan’s answer to Cold Start?

[Raghavendra]

FT: America must hug Pakistan ever closer
By Vali Nasr

Yes please hug the suicide bomber so he can squeeze the life out of you

[sum]

The Pakistanis hope Omar is killed on Afghan soil because it will prove terrorist leaders are also hiding in Afghanistan, the source claimed. The same Afghan official said Omar received the ISI order to leave Quetta from former Pakistani spy chief Hamid Gul.

Well, that was plan-B even with Osama till Amir-khan intervened.

No harm trying again with next bakra...hope that some talibs get wind of this and snatch him near the border after hallal-ing the ISI goons accompanying him for the "encounter"

[ramana]

Vali Nasr article is based on wrong premise. Its core message is that TSP is some sort of pet dog and can be weaned away by Pavlovian tactics.


Also how valid is his advice being a Shia about a Sunni state?

The Rodney Jones article is BS.

TSP is taking a page form US tactics of deplyinng battle field nukes from the 50s thru end of Cold War:Tiny Tim, Davy Crockett, Honest John and 155mm shells etc.

[Lalmohan]

soon as they start to move mullah-O, then the pakistaniyat will hit the fan

[ramana]

Sum, Do you recall Akbar and his guardian Bairam Khan e Khana who got killed/murdered while off on Haj? I think its standard double-cross tactics of Paki meme to get their munnas killed while travelling.

[Lalmohan]

thats when people are most vulnerable, with the least protection

[vanand]

Pakistan’s answer to Cold Start?

Yes, since pak have first use policy sure she will preempt India with nuclear weapons. NASR is for bombing them and us. So we can negate this by having country specific doctrine. For pak we can have " very hot start " nuke them first. Think that our IA general tell media about new this new doctrine what will be Kayani's reaction, will they touch the button.