India-Russia: News & Analysis

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 May 2011 13:07

Fearing power vacuum, Russia cozies up to Afghanistan

(Reuters) - Still haunted by its own disastrous war in Afghanistan, Russia is tiptoeing back into Kabul's affairs ahead of a gradual withdrawal of NATO troops that could leave a dangerous power vacuum in what was once a traditional sphere of influence.

Moscow has refused to send troops to the war, which is becomingly increasingly unpopular as it drags into its 10th year, but it has backed drug raids, and increased support for NATO and local forces. It has also showed interest in business deals as it vies to boost its clout in Afghanistan.

Russia has welcomed Afghan President Hamid Karzai twice in the past 12 months, where he directly asked his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev for help with security.

Long indirectly involved in Afghan affairs through supporting foreign operations, Russia is now pursuing "independent engagement," said Vanda Felbab-Brown, an expert on Afghanistan and fellow at the Brookings Institution.

"Russia's primary objective is to avoid having civil war, instability and leakages into Central Asia and into Russia itself," Felbab-Brown told Reuters from Washington.

Moscow has also been courting Pakistan, seen as instrumental to peace plans in Afghanistan, where some 15,000 Soviet soldiers died fighting mujahideen insurgents before pulling out in 1989.

Russia agreed last year to expand on a transit deal to allow NATO to take armored vehicles through its territory. It had already allowed the military alliance to ship food and fuel.

An agreement to supply the United States with 21 military helicopters is also expected to be completed by year-end.

"Russia certainly does not want America to remain in the region," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs. "At the same time, there is also the concern that the U.S. departure, particularly a swift one, will make the situation much more difficult."

Moscow also hopes to be involved in several economic projects, including a proposed gas pipeline and hydroelectric power facilities in Kabul. Russia has said it would rebuild Soviet-era infrastructure, which it built in the 1950s-1970s, if the international community footed the bill.

VIOLENCE, UNCERTAINTY

Despite escalating violence, Washington and NATO have pledged to begin a gradual security transition from July as part of a plan that will see all foreign combat troops leave Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

Experts say the first transition phase -- to begin in seven areas -- is more about symbolism than substance, but agree the handover is still crucial to determining the readiness of Afghan forces [ID:nL3E7EJ06X].

Violence last year hit its worst levels since U.S.-backed Afghan forces overthrew the Taliban government in late 2001, but Washington and its allies have backed Karzai's peace plan, which includes negotiations with Taliban-led insurgents.

However, there is still little idea how that plan will work and the likelihood of more political uncertainty looms.

Still wary of a country at the heart of the "Great Game" -- the historic rivalry between Britain and Russia during the 19th and 20th centuries --, Moscow is now also driven by its fear of growing Islamism.

Russia is afraid the troop drawdown will allow militants to filter into the oil and gas-producing mainly Muslim countries of ex-Soviet Central Asia.

Last month the head of a Russia-dominated regional security bloc, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), warned member states that Afghan insurgent activity was already spreading to the bordering Central Asian countries.

"This is one of the main destabilizing factors presenting a real threat to collective security in the Central Asian region," the CSTO's Nikolai Bordyuzha said in Moscow.

Moscow is so alarmed, security sources and analysts say, that it is in talks with Tajikistan -- whose southern border with Afghanistan is long and porous -- to send up to 3,000 Russian border guards to protect the country from a spillover of violence [ID:nLDE73R1DA].

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan also border Afghanistan.

"It is possible we could see a resurgence of the Taliban, and the Islamist movements in Central Asia might be emboldened by this," said Gemma Ferst from the London-based Eurasia Group.

Twenty years after the fall of the Soviet Union, homegrown Islamist movements now exist in all Central Asian countries, Ferst added, and links to the international radical community have already been established.

UPHILL BATTLE

Russia also has worries closer to home.

The Kremlin is waging an uphill battle with Islamist insurgents in its mainly Muslim North Caucasus region, underpinned by Soviet-era deportations and two separatist wars in Chechnya since 1994.

Potential chaos in Afghanistan after foreign troops leave could encourage Russia's rebels, who are bent on carving out an independent Islamic state and stage near-daily attacks across the North Caucasus.

Escalating their campaign, they also said they carried out the suicide bombings that killed a total of 77 people in Moscow's busiest airport in January and on the Moscow metro last year.

"There are fears that (violence) might reverberate into the North Caucasus, and how moral encouragement from Afghanistan could fuel salafism and separatism there," said Felbab-Brown, referring to the ultra-conservative branch of Islam that the Caucasus rebels follow.

Afghan militants have openly supported the North Caucasus in the past: the Taliban government recognized Chechnya as independent in 2000 and even set up an embassy in Kabul.

Russia's crippling drugs crisis and a looming HIV/AIDS epidemic have also reignited Moscow's interest in Afghan intervention. A quarter of all Afghan heroin reaches Russia through Central Asia, making it the largest per capita user in the world with up to 3 million addicts.

Though Russia has vowed repeats of a joint raid with the U.S. last year, in which they destroyed four drug labs and a tonne of heroin near the Afghan border with Pakistan, it also disagrees with its Cold War foe over local drug output.

"The drug trade feeds into militant activity, which poses a risk for Central Asia, and this is of course something that motivates us," said anti-drugs tsar Viktor Ivanov, referring to Russia's desire to destroy poppy crops.

The United States has said eradicating poppy plantations would push disgruntled Afghan farmers into insurgents' hands.

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 30 May 2011 01:20

REPORT: Russia Snubs India, Cancels 2 Joint Exercises

Indo-Russian relations have been going down the toilet for quite a while now and it needs urgent "Resetting", perhaps its down to a complete lack of common interests in relations. Socialism is dead, India has moved significantly closer to USA off late denying diplomatic space to Russians, Russia has been charging us exorbitantly for military goods and been unreliable with spares and dangerously seems to be interested in cultivating better ties with TSP.

Wonder what we can do to set this right

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 30 May 2011 02:22

Nihat wrote:REPORT: Russia Snubs India, Cancels 2 Joint Exercises

Indo-Russian relations have been going down the toilet for quite a while now and it needs urgent "Resetting", perhaps its down to a complete lack of common interests in relations. Socialism is dead, India has moved significantly closer to USA off late denying diplomatic space to Russians, Russia has been charging us exorbitantly for military goods and been unreliable with spares and dangerously seems to be interested in cultivating better ties with TSP.

Wonder what we can do to set this right

Russia is the looser, it is behaving like a little kid throwing a temper tantrum. It is time for India to stand up and let Russia know that relationships and partnerships are two way streets. India has bought Russian junk for over 40 years and India payed for it with hard cash. It is time for India and Russia to move-on; in their respective paths.
However please do not fear, the dhothi walls out of love and affection will go out of the way to please the old Bare and buy some more junk.

For those of you who might feel offended, please keep in mind that the old Soviet Union was good friend of India, and Russia is just a trading partner.

negi · Post by **negi** » 30 May 2011 03:00

Since when did Indo-Russo relations get so shallow for cancellation of some joint exercise to affect it ? Irrespective of what the youngistan and noobs like to read and see the fact is Russia remains the sole supplier of the latest cutting edge military equipment to India be it PAKFA program, assistance in the ATV project or even the Gorshkov and Nuclear submarines, there is no other country out there which has similar platforms to offer to India keeping our sensitivities and operational doctrine in mind , cost is a different topic we somehow manage to fck it up in any case be it Ru, UK or even the French . I for one don't even read too much into military sales for strong country-country relationships are governed by more fundamental factors i.e. how their interests converge at any given point in time; that is where our relationship with Russia is a special one for tomorrow if we were to go on a war against the TSP the west and Unkil aint gonna be on our side. It helps to have a big brother specially when one is shy of pulling the trigger on his own. Lastly all this geo-politik talk aside Russia has a lot to offer to Indian industry in area of gas and minerals.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 30 May 2011 03:58

PAKFA program, assistance in the ATV project or even the Gorshkov and Nuclear submarines,

Let me see it

PAKFA - too far ahead

Gorshkov - hmm waiting

Nerpa - waiting

so far nothing on time and price keeps going up

negi · Post by **negi** » 30 May 2011 04:06

^ You are free to choose any entity India purchases from abroad and it will fall into the above pattern i.e. 'delayed and overpriced' right from military AC to the coffins all this irrespective of the supplier so what gives ?

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 30 May 2011 04:33

not to the extent that the damn thing has not even be delivered??

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 30 May 2011 04:37

and with others it never felt like it would go on endlessly - overpriced - not much we can do -

with hawks at least you started seeing them come in

with scorpions we screwed up as much but at least its now moving

C 130s - no delay

P 8s - same

Tell me who has any sense of confidence on the Russian stuff?? whats the next date for the Gorshkov and NErpa??

lets bring the date and see if that is adhered to

negi · Post by **negi** » 30 May 2011 05:04

Come on C-130s and P-8s don't even count they came via the FMS, no ToT no offsets and more importantly they are not even offensive platforms per se nothing in league of Gorshkov and Scorpene. PAKFA,Nerpa and ATV are in different league altogether the Unkil was not even ready to talk about such items with India let alone sell such stuff on the contrary it has arm twisted it's poodles in the past to deny India critical spares/platforms.Regarding the Gorshkov I would say too much water under the bridge; it's a cluster fck (some of it is our undoing).

And what about the HAWKs, you said you saw them coming , do you know how long back the deal dates back to ? AM Rajkumar was part of the flight test and evaluations team sent to UK-France in 1986.

Our relations with Russia are beyond the typical buyer-seller relations, they have supplied us nuclear fuel when Unkil led NSG were being paki , cryogenic engines for GSLV when bchods elsewhere claimed that PSLV was in fact an ICBM (until Unkil arm twisted Glavkosmos) and assistance with the ATV project to name a few. Their MIC might no longer be in a good shape and it reflects in their inability to maintain a constant supply of spares for the Soviet era equipment (and that is why we have looked to countries like Israel and Poland) but it does not take anything away from the fact that it remains our close ally as far as Geo-politics is concerned. Russia is so rich in terms of minerals and gas that it can hold the EU to ransom , Cheena and Unkil based companies are already exploring oil in eastern parts of Russia it would be a huge mistake on India's part to not build upon our relations with Russia.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 30 May 2011 05:31

hey you said pick any deals

now don't throw restrictions

Regarding Hawks - our procuremnet process delays cannot be counted - only delays from after signing and planned deliveries

Rest of it is all fine and we paid a good dollar for all of it. (and in case of GSLV even there they dumped us under pressure - all stuff about secret exchanges notwithstanding). They have shown their preference when push comes to shove.

Now its not going anywhere so rather than start dreaming of delivery dates might as well plan on other options.

oil and gas - actually its behaviour with the europeans is more proof of why not to trust it. ultimately it needs customers - it has nothing else of value to sell. just like the saudis.

anyway bottom line

how long are you willing wait for the Gorshkov and Nerpa for your past romance??

2013 ?? 2015?? 2017??

How much more are you willing to pay??

negi · Post by **negi** » 30 May 2011 05:49

Surya wrote:hey you said pick any deals

now don't throw restrictions

Well if that is the way you want to play it should I list the inventory of arms India buys from Russian against the half dozen things we bought from Unkil and talk about timelines ? To be honest what's your point and what are you comparing the C-130 and P-8 deal against ? The Gorshkov and Nerpa ; why ? what are the similarities there ?
It's not about restrictions, the devil is in the details.

Regarding Hawks - our procuremnet process delays cannot be counted - only delays from after signing and planned deliveries

I shall make it easy for you why not compare the Hawk deal with the Mig-29 (similar time frame) or even the MKI .

Rest of it is all fine and we paid a good dollar for all of it. (and in case of GSLV even there they dumped us under pressure - all stuff about secret exchanges notwithstanding). They have shown their preference when push comes to shove.

I wonder what do you mean by they ditched us ? We got the initial batch of the CUS from Russia despite us not being part of the MTCR. Unkil wont sell that kind of stuff to India even today (it's a different matter that we don't need it now).

oil and gas - actually its behaviour with the europeans is more proof of why not to trust it. ultimately it needs customers - it has nothing else of value to sell. just like the saudis.

No body in a right state of mind will make such a claim, google up when you have time and see what % of world's minerals come under RU's boundaries.

how long are you willing wait for the Gorshkov and Nerpa for your past romance??
2013 ?? 2015?? 2017??
How much more are you willing to pay??

You tell me , who else is going to sell you these on your terms (as in autonomy with regards to usage).

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 30 May 2011 05:54

The relationship between Soviet Union and India was special. India got quite a few military systems from USSR. However the relationship between India and Russia are not the same.

“C-130s and P-8s don't even count they came via the FMS, no ToT no offsets and more importantly they are not even offensive platforms”

Delivery schedules and cost once agreed upon must be met. It should not matter if it offensive or defensive platform.

“And what about the HAWKs, you said you saw them coming , do you know how long back the deal dates back to ? AM Rajkumar was part of the flight test and evaluations team sent to UK-France in 1986. ”

Delivery the HAWKs was delayed because India did not make the call to buy them, not because UK delayed in producing them.

“Our relations with Russia are beyond the typical buyer-seller relations, they have supplied us nuclear fuel when Unkil led NSG were being paki , cryogenic engines for GSLV when bchods elsewhere claimed that PSLV was in fact an ICBM (until Unkil arm twisted Glavkosmos) and assistance with the ATV project to name a few.”

“Russia is so rich in terms of minerals and gas that it can hold the EU to ransom, Cheena and Unkil based companies are already exploring oil in eastern parts of Russia it would be a huge mistake on India's part to not build upon our relations with Russia.”

You are spot on about the above points. If any one questions that, they should have their head examined.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the relationship between India and Russia is slowly moved from partners to that of a commercial relationship.

Money is also an important factor in the old days India did not have the money to go to upscale store for shopping. When you do not have money you buy at Wal-Mart, as you’re financial situation improves you start going to Macy’s or Neiman-Marcus.

negi · Post by **negi** » 30 May 2011 06:07

VinodTK wrote:The relationship between Soviet Union and India was special. India got quite a few military systems from USSR. However the relationship between India and Russia are not the same.

Talk about building a case inch by inch. Btw Can you quantify Special ?

Delivery schedules and cost once agreed upon must be met. It should not matter if it offensive or defensive platform.

Ah lets be specific here; statements like "Delivery schedules and cost once agreed upon must be met" are a big haajmola goli; when you say schedule what platforms are you talking about ? P-8s and C-130s and comparing them to what; the Gorshkov ? Why not compare them with our Tu-142s or even the Ilyushins ?

Delivery the HAWKs was delayed because India did not make the call to buy them, not because UK delayed in producing them.

Ah so you are aware of the delay from the Indian side in the above case; do you know that a IN contingent is in Russia for several years now and one of it's tasks was to do a effort estimation on the Gorshkov refit , how many Talwars have RU shipyards rolled out in the same time period ? Point being Gorshkov is a different case.

The same applies to the Scorpene deal too where the supplier is ripping the GoI for 'drafting errors'.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the relationship between India and Russia is slowly moved from partners to that of a commercial relationship.Money is also an important factor in the old days India did not have the money to go to upscale store for shopping. When you do not have money you buy at Wal-Mart, as you’re financial situation improves you start going to Macy’s or Neiman-Marcus.

Again lets stick to specifics here what are the alternatives to Gorshkov and Nerpa; who else was offering platforms in similar class to India when these deals were made ? No the analogy about Walmart- Macy's does not fit in here.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 30 May 2011 06:16

Quote:
oil and gas - actually its behaviour with the europeans is more proof of why not to trust it. ultimately it needs customers - it has nothing else of value to sell. just like the saudis.

No body in a right state of mind will make such a claim, google up when you have time and see what % of world's minerals come under RU's boundaries.

do not worry about my mind

- percentage can exist but all the easy stuff is running out. am talking of oil-and if we were getting anything else I would see some point - but I have not heard us making any major headway or getting any preferential treatment. -if i missed something let me know

Quote:
how long are you willing wait for the Gorshkov and Nerpa for your past romance??
2013 ?? 2015?? 2017??
How much more are you willing to pay??

You tell me , who else is going to sell you these on your terms (as in autonomy with regards to usage).

So even you do not have any faith in when it will be delivered

What is a sale when it is not delivered??

I can live without either - (hell we have for so long - Admiral rakesh has grown old and mithaiwallahs are dead) I would plan for if need be a time without the damn carrier and accelerate as much as possible our own plans

same with Nerpa - stuff it. Its not like we are going to see it anytime soon

anyway will revisit this topic when the next delay, blackmail and nonsense comes up.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 30 May 2011 06:53

@Surya and Vinodtk ^^; There are different standards. Russians can do no wrong and Unkil can do no right. As I have speculated, Nerpa, Vik and PakFa are non arrivals. Why worry about Unki sanctions when Russki products don't even come?

And BTW, where is the Indian diaspora in Mother Russia to help swing the debate. Infosys/TCS/Wipro people have trouble getting visas.

Some may carry on about Joe Sixpack and racist blue collar types in US, but you have not felt racial hatred until you venture into Russia. Ask the people from the Caucasus or those from Siberia. They are untermensch to the Russians in Moscow.

With the Arihant underway, the Indo-Russian relationship is no more than a vendor/buyer relationship. If they want to sell to Pakistan or China, go ahead. The first will ask for Russian money, the second will ask for Siberia.

The exercise cancellation has more to do with the Russkie learning the Germans are going to get the second line of SSKs and that the Amur is dead.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 30 May 2011 07:05

Some may carry on about Joe Sixpack and racist blue collar types in US, but you have not felt racial hatred until you venture into Russia. Ask the people from the Caucasus or those from Siberia. They are untermensch to the Russians in Moscow

have a whole bunch of "Russians" in my office and they laugh whent they hear of Indians still pining for the old relationship. yup get a lot of details about Russia.

as for Trust - if a country which was bled and brought togrief indirectly by the Pakis wants to deal with the pakis - good luck to them. Its their vulnerable underbelly that will be ripped open in time.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 30 May 2011 07:30

Surya wrote:
Some may carry on about Joe Sixpack and racist blue collar types in US, but you have not felt racial hatred until you venture into Russia. Ask the people from the Caucasus or those from Siberia. They are untermensch to the Russians in Moscow
have a whole bunch of "Russians" in my office and they laugh whent they hear of Indians still pining for the old relationship. yup get a lot of details about Russia.

as for Trust - if a country which was bled and brought togrief indirectly by the Pakis wants to deal with the pakis - good luck to them. Its their vulnerable underbelly that will be ripped open in time.

+1

negi · Post by **negi** » 30 May 2011 07:41

What nonsense, seriously man you guys debate like Kinder Gartners . So Indo-Russian relationship is being analyzed based on some chit chat over chai in office.

As I have speculated, Nerpa, Vik and PakFa are non arrivals. Why worry about Unki sanctions when Russki products don't even come?

Oh and <snip> ? I shall be here on this very forum.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 30 May 2011 09:05

Folks:

Is there any analysis of what is going on within Russia which is leading to such a change in attitudes? I have heard that India and Russia do not have that many common interests any more, but I do not understand why. This potentially could be the panda influence in Russia. Is this a manifestation of their disgust about how the MMS/PMO is in Uncle's pocket?

Indian Armed Forces have a huge dependence on Russia and the way the relationship is going does not bode well. Unlike the Chinese who have legally/illegally reverse engineered their Russian stuff, India has made very little progress in that area. India does not have the breadth and depth of the manufacturing base which China has.

While Indians worry about TSP-USA etc., a breakdown in the India-Russia can have a HUGE impact on India's war-fighting capability. I hope this serves as a wake-up lesson to Indian Armed Forces, and especially the Indian Army, regarding the dependency on foreign vendors. India needs to invest in its home grown industry and rope on the private sector in a big way to do that.

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 30 May 2011 09:56

^^That is precisely why you don't put too many eggs in one basket. Sure back then we didn't have a choice, and right now the GOI is diversifying which is very good. But things like the T-90 purchase at the expense of Arjun are not easing the potential problems.

Russia is still the most important partner but there is a lot of "legacy effect" to that. The trends are not that positive esp. potential Moscow-Beijing axis.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 30 May 2011 10:22

VikramS wrote:This potentially could be the panda influence in Russia. Is this a manifestation of their disgust about how the MMS/PMO is in Uncle's pocket?.

Yes, the Russians are fairly frustrated at the moment about the lack of enthusiasm form ND. Note, with all things on such scale, changes are slow and tiny as also small differences in behavior mean big things.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 30 May 2011 11:43

Let me share my experience with you guys:

a) Even during the days of the USSR, HAL was always having a tough time getting spares and the necessary materiel to machine parts for the MiG-21/23/27!

So after the collapse of the USSR, there was a economic mini collapse in Russia, what with some factories/R&D/design assets being spread over various countries as we know them today. Add to that a shortage of funds. So much so that the Ru Armed Forces also suffered the same fate of unavailability.

Obviously, the other drawback they faced was internal operational chaos in their industries because of the migration of key personnel to their original states, now countries.

Now this is not an excuse for Ru, but that chaos led to all sorts of delays, to them and us. Also they needed more money and changed from a fairly dependant, generous supplier to one which needed money in their coffers.

Today they are well on the way to getting their economy back on track and their organistaions back to some level of efficiency. The organised way that they are working on the PAK-FA and the testing of the Kaveri are a couple of examples.

But, being an Indian, I definitely would factor in the pitfalls while taking a decision on procuring equipment from them.

b) On the Americans delivering the P8's and transport aircraft on time:

It is a stated US policy that they keep an inventory of ckd's in the eventuality that they have to ramp up their strength quickly in the event of a war. And rest assured that the end-user gets charged the inventory cost regardless of wheter it is their armed forces or another country.

The drawback with the US is that if we want that equipment with all those bells and whistles, we have to sign a host of agreements, which I think, I would look at with suspiscion. Add to that the history of sanctions, the arms aid to Pakistan with the feeble excuse that it was meant for Anti-terror(sic) operations. As one BRFite had posted, somewhere, Harpoons to fight the AQ Navy! Also, their empty words that this equipment is never be used against India (The same assurances were given to us in the 60's and see what happened in the '65 war). Now their latest spin is that what they supply would not negatively impact the balance of power for India!

At this stage, and I think that the powers that be realise it, the only way for us is to do a balancing act, ensure that we build a Military Industrial Complex, with sufficinet safeguards to ensure that it doesn't become the monster it has in the US.

Sorry if some parts are O/T, but I wanted to strike a balance as far as the inputs to policy were concerned.

vina · Post by **vina** » 30 May 2011 11:57

Yawn.. So let us buy some 400000000 more T-90S from them (and also, put on the 125mm smoothbore on the Arjuns as well.. whatever for you ask, well to "standardize" ..

) and also let us by the next Black Eagle, some Black Elephant or whatever they are going to be making, because by some "magic", a tank that is 60 tons in Russia and hence not "strategically mobile", will by some magic shed weight and record only 40 tons on Indian weigh machines and become "strategically mobile"!.

And oh, dont even get me started on AG /Vik Ad and the Mig29s. They will be unique things copies of which exist nowhere else in the world and maintaing them and running them will be an absolute nightmare (if at all it gets delivered).

Singhaji was on the money when he called the Mig29K an "evolutionary dead end" . Sorry boys. That VikAd/ Mig29 is dead as nails it wont last 15 years in IN service before being replaced by ADS followups and will see more time in the dockyard tied up as unserviceable junk , just as it spent the majority of it's life so far as AG.

Get the ADS /Vikrant in to service ASAP and get the followup ships designed right NOW.

negi · Post by **negi** » 30 May 2011 12:02

Prilliant analysis viewing Indo-Russian relations from the weapons sales perspective , ahead of the curve stuff.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 30 May 2011 12:04

Vinaji,

I never suggested that.

The conclusion to my post was:

Now this is not an excuse for Ru,........

At this stage, and I think that the powers that be realise it, the only way for us is to do a balancing act, ensure that we build a Military Industrial Complex, with sufficient safeguards to ensure that it doesn't become the monster it has in the US.

What is past is past. Let us not make mistakes like this in the future.

I am an Indian first and an Indian last.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 30 May 2011 12:06

Negiji,

Their Bolshoi Ballet is brilliant!

Narad · Post by **Narad** » 31 May 2011 13:14

Russia's decision irks Indian Navy

Angry over the way Russia treated Indian warships that sailed to Vladivostok, the Indian Navy, in a report sent to the ministry of external affairs (MEA), expressed its displeasure with the cancellation of the drill.

Sources told Headlines Today that the navy said in its report that it was upset with the "highly unprofessional manner" in which the Russian Navy decision was dispensed.

The navy recommended that a government decision be taken on how to respond to Russia's snub. The tone of the navy's report says that Russia was a "fair-weather friend", a country on its best behaviour only when it gets big defence contracts for India.

It has also recommended that the idea of Russia being looked at as a "long-time strategic partner" be given a re-look since "close strategic partners do not treat each other this way".

WTF ??

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 31 May 2011 14:08

Quote:

Angry over the way Russia treated Indian warships that sailed to Vladivostok, the Indian Navy, in a report sent to the ministry of external affairs (MEA), expressed its displeasure with the cancellation of the drill.

Sources told Headlines Today that the navy said in its report that it was upset with the "highly unprofessional manner" in which the Russian Navy decision was dispensed.

The navy recommended that a government decision be taken on how to respond to Russia's snub. The tone of the navy's report says that Russia was a "fair-weather friend", a country on its best behaviour only when it gets big defence contracts for India.

It has also recommended that the idea of Russia being looked at as a "long-time strategic partner" be given a re-look since "close strategic partners do not treat each other this way".

Good show IN. Keep our flag flying high!

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 31 May 2011 20:03

^^^
odd behavior from Russia. what could be the motive for acting all TFTA??? money can't be the only thing. in this particular decision, money probably played no role. it's a deliberately political/strategic decision, but why?

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 31 May 2011 20:15

The Bear is upset at the Indo-US bonhomie.Russians expect India to behave as if it is its poodle.
With China increasingly ripping off its products and turning out copied clones, Russians should be careful not to piss off India, as there is no bigger customer for its ware's in the forseeable future.

clicky:
War games cancelled as Russia delivers calculated snub to India.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 31 May 2011 20:16

Crude is back above 100$ , so Russians are rude now. Let the crude cool down , so will Russia. Last time when crude was around 120 levels, all these oil and gas producing states like Venezuela, Iran,Russia , Libya, everyone was shooting from the hip. As crude prices tumbled, all of them went back into their cave complexes. So, maybe this Russian attitude has something to do with high crude prices.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 31 May 2011 20:45

it is hard to understand the Russian mind. we need dedicated thinkers for Russia. we either seriously overrate or underrate Indo-Russian dynamics. on BRF, we have lot of expertise on USA, Europe, Middle-East and East/South-East Asia, but less so on Russia. just my humble opinion, no need to flame me. there has to be a rational reason why Russia is acting this way.

from my reading, most forumers have attributed recent Russian behavior to disgust and contempt for Cangress/MMS leadership, which they view as napunsak....
recent "closeness" with US is also being cited. if "closeness" to massa is only parameter, then doesn't matter which leadership there is, Russia will act this way.
another reason being cited is India is not acting like poodle to Russia.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 31 May 2011 21:04

Narad wrote:Russia's decision irks Indian Navy

Angry over the way Russia treated Indian warships that sailed to Vladivostok, the Indian Navy, in a report sent to the ministry of external affairs (MEA), expressed its displeasure with the cancellation of the drill.

Sources told Headlines Today that the navy said in its report that it was upset with the "highly unprofessional manner" in which the Russian Navy decision was dispensed.

The navy recommended that a government decision be taken on how to respond to Russia's snub. The tone of the navy's report says that Russia was a "fair-weather friend", a country on its best behaviour only when it gets big defence contracts for India.

It has also recommended that the idea of Russia being looked at as a "long-time strategic partner" be given a re-look since "close strategic partners do not treat each other this way".
WTF ??

Just wait:

1. MiG 29K deliveries
2. Vik in 201.....
3. PaKFa/FGFA 202....
4. Nerpa 201...

They are not smart these Russians. LCA Mk2 /AMCA are musts and so is rapid build out of the SSBNs and SSGNs. Don't wait for the Russkies.

They sold us junk at friendship prices as the FSU and now want to sell junk that does not even come at outrageous prices.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 31 May 2011 21:08

It has also recommended that the idea of Russia being looked at as a "long-time strategic partner" be given a re-look since "close strategic partners do not treat each other this way".

OMG how could the IN do that. Stoopid people to think from a weapons and exercise aspect.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 31 May 2011 21:13

@@Vina^^^:"Yawn..."

Sorry did not see your comments before posting mine. Agree. It's not just the MiG29K that is an evolutionary dead-end, it's the whole Indo-Russian relationship. As countries, we have no common boundaries, little trade and since Raj Kapoor is dead along with his FSU fans, there's not much cultural commonality either. Neither the Vik nor the Nerpa will make it to IN. The ADS will be here before they come. Rafale M would probably be the alternative.

Anyone know what the Indian Rupee debt to the FSU is now? Probably need it to offset the amounts paid.

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 31 May 2011 21:17

devesh wrote: from my reading, most forumers have attributed recent Russian behavior to disgust and contempt for Cangress/MMS leadership, which they view as napunsak....

How kind of them to look out for us

negi · Post by **negi** » 31 May 2011 21:30

It's easy to make knee jerk posts and have a extreme viewpoint owing to prejudice; the Vik and Nerpa are going to see service with the IN it's a matter of time but the question is will the naysayers have their crow soup when the time comes (not that it's the first time they are gonna have it) ?

And then we have don-quixotes running amock in thread taking tilt at windmills by claiming 'Mig-29 has reached an evolutionary dead end' ; may I ask HTF is that relevant to this thread ?

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 31 May 2011 22:07

I think we guys are not being pragmatic.

If any arms supplier sells to another country which we feel is a threat to us we get upset.

So what if Ru sells the same equipment to China etc.? Do we expect them (Also other countries beside Ru) to turn away other customers?

In the case of joint partnerships such as PAK-FA, BRAHMOS etc., they can't do it. In case of any other euipment, they can.

We have to treat all arms suppliers as commercial bandits. Commerce is about making money, not about love. Especially when we are not aligned with any country and exercise our right to be able to choose what we want.

As for the MiG29 is concerned it maybe a dead end, but let us give our armed forces some credit. The IAF has, to its credit, taken the Gnat, C-119 (fitted with an additional Orpheus Gnat engine ( http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Image ... ts/Packet/ )and the MiG25 beyond their "dead end".

And the IN attacking Karachi in 1971 with OSA missile boats sent out of Mumbai? Even the Russies were astonished. (A good drinking buddy of mine was a Commander on one of those and as he put it, "a very satisfying ocean voyage".)

I am not arguing whether the choice of MiG29 was correct or flawed for whatever reason. The deal is done and I trust the fact that our chaps will make use of the equipment, enhance its performance, and be tactically superior and stretch its envelope.

After all, in the end, it is the men behind the machines which add the edge.

Narad · Post by **Narad** » 31 May 2011 22:21

devesh wrote:there has to be a rational reason why Russia is acting this way.

Well, how about this?

The immediate provocation may appear to be a meeting between Indian Navy chief Admiral Nirmal Verma and visiting Russian Navy chief, Admiral Sergeevich Vysotskiy, this January. The meeting, reportedly, deteriorated into a slugfest as various department heads of the Indian Navy berated the Russian delegation over the poor serviceability of warships, aircraft and submarines of Russian origin.

It is said after the meeting Adm Vysotskiy expressed his displeasure at the happenings.

The incident at Vladivostok obviously was a case of the Russians returning compliment

Reports emerging say that Russia is now keen that India should fund the completion of a second unfinished Akula hull at the Komsomolsk shipyard, a move that has been turned down by the Indian Navy.

It is issues such as these that may have been the overhang at the meeting between Adm Nirmal Verma and Russian Adm Sergeevich Vysotskiy in January.

The peeved Russians may have decided to up the ante. Blackmail is a tactic that is particularly effective - particularly in the short term.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 31 May 2011 22:25

It's easy to make knee jerk posts and have a extreme viewpoint owing to prejudice;

But but but the Navy said the same thing I said - ie. lets start planning to move away even if it causes some pain in short term

Is the Navy also knee kerk??

Sure it will come in 201.... something - maybe if ...

We never said it will not

We just said we have no idea when and if we are going to go many years without it - lets plan to live without it.

rajanb

In the case of joint partnerships such as PAK-FA, BRAHMOS etc., they can't do it. In case of any other euipment, they can.

Sure they can - since they are not exactly a lawful state with respect to contracts whats there to prevent them UNLESS critical components come from us

If what narad has posted is true its even worse - their response to customer criticism of poor service etc. is to behave even more badly