sourab_c wrote:
You have missed the core premise of my counter argument. Kindly read my post again.
In the future, try looking at other BR posters with a more open mind. You can not always steer the discussion on the thread the way YOU like it. This will be my last post regarding this subject.
I am questioning the core premise of your counter argument and I am saying that you are making a counter argument without delving into any detail of how or why that counter argument might or might not be feasible.
You still have not done that. Let me re-post your original statement
sourab_c wrote:What about the Chinese? We can never discount the possibility of Pakistan getting it from them....
We certainly cannot discount it. But equally you must not count on it without saying how. What factors in the creation of a less than 30 cm diameter warhead would give you pointers to the idea that the Chinese have created such a design and handed it to the Pakistanis?
A lot of information is available about the large numbers of tests that the US needed to do to design warheads less than 20 inches (50 cm) in diameter and some less than 12 inches (30 cm) . The vast majority of warheads that are less than 12 inches (30 cm) provide yields in the range of tens of tons or a few hundred tons. Not kilotons. The information available suggests that efficiency may have to be traded for getting some yield, especially if very little testing has been done - which means that these weapons are likely to be relatively costly in terms of nuclear material consumed - for the amount of bang that is produced. And Uranium of which the Pakis have a lot does not lend itself as easily to small weapons as Pu - of which the Pakis do not have much.
None of this means that the Pakis cannot have a warhead that is less than 30 cm in diameter, but it also means that if they do have such a warhead, whether home-built or obtained from the Chinese:
1. They cannot have many because of limited amounts of fissile material
2. They would have to compromise on the number of bigger and more efficient city busting bombs by wasting material on a small number of <30 cm nukes.
That would be relatively good news for India. But i am reluctant to believe it without better information.
I will keep posting on this subject because I believe it has not received enough attention beyond the standard statement "Oh the Chinese gave it to Pakis". We have depended on this for too long without critical examination.