India-Russia: News & Analysis

negi · Post by **negi** » 31 May 2011 22:57

Surya you reading too much into this incident; IN has in the past refused to take deliveries of equipment from RU when it did not meet it's expectations (IL-38 SD induction was were delayed because of this) same with the Klubs and even the Shtil-1 onboard our ships but the bottomline is IN still went ahead with next batch of modified Krivak-III frigates. It is still gung-ho on the Nerpa and Vik and that is why we have a huge IN contingent in Russia even as we speak .

Even otherwise I for one find this sense of self-entitlement amusing; here on one hand we are a$$ kissing the two bit neighbor that plants IEDs under our musharraf and on the other hand we expect to be taken seriously by the bigger fish in the pond. These are petty issues and imo of little consequence when it comes to Indo-Russian relations on a broader level.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 31 May 2011 23:03

@Suryaji

I take your point with regards to contracts, especially the AdmiralG. (Which i clean forgot at the time of posting)

And not to forget we getting let down (by Unkil) after the '62 war where Unkil claimed that arms supplied to Pakis under CENTO will not be used aginst us. And the same refrain, dressed in a new rap tune, being played by Unkil as to his fortifying the Pakis against the AQ/Taliban Navies and air forces!

But on the other hand, we held our own against the pakis in '65 and banged them brutally in '71.

We should look at all arms suppliers as commercial bandits. And since we seemingly value our independence of choice, we should play hardball as Negi suggests.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 31 May 2011 23:27

negi

I may be reading too much - I hope I am not but over the years I have had it with the Russian nonsense. It started with hearing the details of the agony IAF men going ot get spare parts had to face. Then came supply issues in other areas. But like all of us even I gave in to nostalgia and pity for the SU breakup.

But then came Vikram.., TOT issues with Brahmos, Nerpa, spare problems with existing stuff, etc etc. and i have changed.

But at what point do we say enough is enough. I think the Navy is fast reaching that point.

rajanb

agree all are bandicoots - but at least some modicum of contracts and legalese needs to be maintained else whats the point

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 31 May 2011 23:45

Does it mean Germany get the order of second line of Submarines? French get the MRCA contract , Spain and Italy earn $ from support ships and poor old Britain sells its whole navy to india .

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Jun 2011 00:45

The best thing to do is to have a much deeper relationship with the Kremlin, SVR, and GRU especially as far as intelligence on Chechens is concerned. Secondly we need to have a much closer relationship with the Russian business class, especially those who are close to the regime.

Third comes the Russian military. If some military chaps in Russia don't stick to the agreements or try to snub India, we should simply get them removed - all for the sake of excellent Indo-Russian relations.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 01 Jun 2011 01:29

^^ Relations with Russia is a must - just to maintain the balance of power. Another issue is they have close relations with the central asian countries. Any sort of moves in central asia need to be said to Moscow first (even in Afg per se). This is the way they are, they don't like it if we do things that they don't approve/initiate. The 120k troops in Afg issue was a big lesson to the strategic community.

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 01 Jun 2011 01:43

Weapons purchases are a rather silly parameter to judge the depth of International relationships among Nation states. Infact, it's quite the opposite as weapons sale is more of a follow up to good relations.

Russia and India have very little in common as of today, earlier there were several factors such as Socialism, Anti-USA sentiment, Anti-Pak sentiment, Trade and Investment but I don't think any of those factors remain valid as of today, by next year India will be very close to Russia economically (nom. GDP) and our demand to be treated as Equal partners with Russia has probably not sunk into the Russian Govt. yet.

Yes , they have begun to fleece us of late so clearly they can see that India has significant resources now but as far Diplomatic, strategic and political level is concerned, it's obvious that Russians have not known how to deal with India's rise and what kind of policy change might be necessary to accommodate India.

Economically Russia is not much of a world power and falls way behind nations like USA, China, Japan, Germany etc, so it's become increasingly difficulty to find a focal point around which Indo-russian relations can be fortified.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 01 Jun 2011 08:00

We cannot wish away the reality of Ru. And the probable fact, that with Oil prices going up and their economy booming they will improve their international presence and command a greater posture.

It seems to me, that after 9/11, with Unkil arming Pakis with uneccesary weapons we over did the "strategic partnership" bit with Unkil, even when Unkil with his own admission was lowering our defence superiority by providing arms of the kind necessary to fight AQ-Taliban's airforce and navy. The only strategic common interests seems to be to buy everything from Unkil so they can boost their economy, and we supposedly become subservient to Unkil.

Historically, we have embraced the warm Ru bear in these circumstances. But our MEA mandarins seem to have written off Ru and focused on Unkil.

So the Ru psyche is hurt and the result is petulance. Even though when Mededev was here we signed a slew of agreements last year.

My take on this issue.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jun 2011 11:41

Nihat wrote:Weapons purchases are a rather silly parameter to judge the depth of International relationships among Nation states. Infact, it's quite the opposite as weapons sale is more of a follow up to good relations.

Unfortunately weapon sales have continued to be THE lynch pin of relationships between states. This is a fairly common shared perception amongst all people and all nations.

To which country you sell what weapons and at what prices under what conditions basically sets the foundation of all other relationship. The underlying base line of ALL geo-politics is hard power and its projection and sharing and weapons sales is one of the crucial components of that.

There are tons of example, the status of US Munna's for example and the toys they get at what prices. The source of complete Paki strength.

Russia and India have very little in common as of today,

Really? Is that why India and US work closely in all multi-lateral fora through BRIC and other means?
Where do I begin on the commonality ---

Views on Afg? Check
Views on Libya? Check
Views on Iran? Check
Views on Islamic fundamentalism? Check (and before Americans discovered a word called terrorism

)
Views on energy security? Check (any other country providing us co-operation in oil fields?)
Views on multi-polar world? Check
Long standing close military relations? Check (Our Navy chief can go and have a lovers tiff in Rus, can any other chief remotely do that else where?)

Man I can go on and on and on and on....

earlier there were several factors such as Socialism, Anti-USA sentiment, Anti-Pak sentiment, Trade and Investment but I don't think any of those factors remain valid as of today,

Those were never the real factors ever anyway.

by next year India will be very close to Russia economically (nom. GDP) and our demand to be treated as Equal partners with Russia has probably not sunk into the Russian Govt. yet.

Russia treated India as equal partners much before India and Russia were remotely close in power. Even during the times we were dependent on them they never treated us like a poodle, we opposed their moves in East Europe and they did not mind, we had different ideas of Afg and they were ok with that.

Economically Russia is not much of a world power and falls way behind nations like USA, China, Japan, Germany etc, so it's become increasingly difficulty to find a focal point around which Indo-russian relations can be fortified.

Thats a joke right? In the world of rapidly declining US and EU and growing BRIC strength?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jun 2011 12:10

the Indo-Russian non military trade and exchange of people (tourists, workers) is very negligible compared to our dealings with china, asean,gulf,uk and usa.
in non military area what does russia/ukraine/belarus export to india?
and what do we export there?
are any of these critical items that cannot be bought at same prices elsewhere?
how much does Indian cos invest in Russia vs in the usual places?
how much has russian cos invested in india?

these are the questions to ask. looking at it purely as a military partnership cannot sustain it in the future.

for example wipro announced this week its going to manufacture aerospace parts and first order had been got from a spanish co part of EADS. has russia ever given us such contracts from its civilian side ? will their worker unions and political system allow outsourcing or import of indian goods on a large scale?

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... anish-firm

the only people comfortable with Russia as "system" and "society" in india are the users of russian eqpt (armed forces) and those few armed forces who spent some time there. the aam aadmi has far greater familiarity with the cultures of asia , middle east, uk and usa in comparison. russian soft power in terms of books, films is almost negligible in todays world - even india has greater soft power via bollywood, cricket, food and diaspora than russia does. in old days we had "soviet land" magazine to tell us about ussr, now there is nothing.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jun 2011 12:14

Singha wrote: these are the questions to ask. looking at it purely as a military partnership cannot sustain it in the future.

Yes, we need to establish much closer links with Russia in trade and other aspects. The military relationship will decline as Indian Mil-Ind complex develops.

It is here that GoI has been remiss (despite BRIC work) , struck as they are with their new found love.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 01 Jun 2011 13:08

Sanku wrote: Yes, we need to establish much closer links with Russia in trade and other aspects. The military relationship will decline as Indian Mil-Ind complex develops.

It is here that GoI has been remiss (despite BRIC work) , struck as they are with their new found love.

I thought the GOI had done a seminal work in trying to provide trade / relationships with Russia / USSR. We have bought dodgy army equipment from them, bought nuke reactors that had prohibitive liability requirements to us, and supported their aggression in Hungary / Czech and Afghanistan in the UN.

It is a testament to the shoddy quality of Russian products that despite a 50 year headstart in relations they have been unable to sell any decent product to the consumers / pvt Industry in India. Everything they have managed to do till now has been through their GOI relations.

Now with the pvt sector taking primacy - Russia will have to show that they can provide better quality products than the west or can produce it more cheaply than China. Else they will continue to have to rely on GOI largesse to sell their products and unfortunately that can't last for ever. Specially now that the western military markets have opened up to us.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 01 Jun 2011 13:09

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 670862.cms
Russian request to name flyover after Yuri Gagarin

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jun 2011 13:11

..and alternate sources of strategic items like areva and ge-westinghouse reactors, israeli radars, indo-israeli SAM projects ... where ever they have had to compete they are getting pushed out. pakfa was a single vendor strategic decision, same for nuke sub.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jun 2011 13:31

arnab wrote:
Sanku wrote: Yes, we need to establish much closer links with Russia in trade and other aspects. The military relationship will decline as Indian Mil-Ind complex develops.

It is here that GoI has been remiss (despite BRIC work) , struck as they are with their new found love.
I thought the GOI had done a seminal work in trying to provide trade / relationships with Russia / USSR.

You thought wrong. But whats it about my making a post that draws some posters into threads which they never venture into otherwise?

We have bought dodgy army equipment from them, bought nuke reactors that had prohibitive liability requirements to us,

And in their hurry to barge into discussion forget that the context of discussion on trade was trade in non-strategic space.

Coupled with mindset of treating India as a perpetual market -- as evinced by

It is a testament to the shoddy quality of Russian products that despite a 50 year headstart in relations they have been unable to sell any decent product to the consumers / pvt Industry in India. Everything they have managed to do till now has been through their GOI relations.

Now with the pvt sector taking primacy - Russia will have to show that they can provide better quality products than the west or can produce it more cheaply than China. Else they will continue to have to rely on GOI largesse to sell their products and unfortunately that can't last for ever. Specially now that the western military markets have opened up to us.

and forgetting that trade also means India selling into USSR, but hey those who want India to be a sink hole for their fav suppliers will never let that thought cross their minds.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 02 Jun 2011 04:47

Sanku wrote: And in their hurry to barge into discussion forget that the context of discussion on trade was trade in non-strategic space.

Coupled with mindset of treating India as a perpetual market -- as evinced by

and forgetting that trade also means India selling into USSR, but hey those who want India to be a sink hole for their fav suppliers will never let that thought cross their minds.

Yikes you want to talk trade ('in non-strategic space') without the concept of a 'market' ?

Since you talk of 'trade' (as a 2 way street) why keep it ambiguous btw? Why not talk about Indian exports to Russia? and the need to bribe the oligarchs to operate in that country for instance? So what should GOI have done - GOI is already doing its bit buying Russian stuff? Why doesn't the govt of Russia buy Indian 'non-strategic' stuff? Why should GOI lobby on behalf of its pvt sector to sell 'non strategic goods' to Russia? Does GOI need to do it for its pvt sector in any other country? Look up how much India sells to US / China / rest of europe

How is it GOIs fault if Russia won't buy without pay-offs ?

So yes India is a sinkhole - for Russian shoddy 'strategic' products. And we know who wants to keep it that way. But won't happen

negi · Post by **negi** » 02 Jun 2011 05:34

GD there is a lot to cover on the issue but would keep it short

1. until 90s trade deficit was in favor of USSR , however after the disintegration and us opening the economy during the same period alongside removal of permit raj the private sector in India made huge strides as far as contribution to our GDP is concerned; the issue is Indo-Russian trade was essentially a govt-govt exchange and hence Russia missed the bus when Indian economy opened itself to the outside world.

Secondly with Ru economy in shambles they were not able to provide us with favorable trade conditions as before in fact afaik they had imposed a ban on most of the food/agricultural stuff from India (not sure if it still continues).

Having said that from latest gup-shup in media looks like the two countries plan to reach about 20 billion$ in annual trade by 2015 (which sounds optimistic to me at this point in time). I am personally more interested in their natural resources

, I mean mineral wealth and gas ; that is why India needs to have it's foot firmly in the door.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 02 Jun 2011 06:51

Negi ji,

The balance of trade is still in favour of Russia

http://commerce.nic.in/eidb/iecnttopnq.asp

In 2010-11, India exported $804 m worth of goods / services to Russia and imported around $2.0 bn from Russia;

In comparison, in the same year India exported $ 12 bn to the US and imported around $9 bn from the US.

Russia for all our 'tarrel than mountain' friendship ranks as number 28 on the trade list with India (US is no. 3, China No. 2).

Second, I completely agree with the natural resource argument - though all we have got to show for it is a 20% stake in Sakhalin oil fields. We are doing far better in the mid-east and Africa IMO.

negi · Post by **negi** » 02 Jun 2011 07:03

So what's your point ? Which kitaab of lahori logic says high volume of trade==friend/partner ?

Using that crappy logic Cheena and Amrika should be best of the buddies.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 02 Jun 2011 07:06

negi wrote:So what's your point ?

umm - your point that until the 90s the trade deficit was in favour of USSR. I'm saying it still is. And I'm saying that unless Russia makes an effort - the 'strategic' relationship is fast approaching its use-by-date, without any real economics to back it up.

sigh ... precisely what I'm saying: Nations do not have friendships. Only interests. And Russia is not providing.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 02 Jun 2011 07:19

Sanku ji,
Have you considered the possibility that maybe, just maybe, the Russians got too poor to "give payoffs" to improve "sales"! They should hire Ottavio Quattrocchi from "pucca" non-Russian/"western" credentials as a consultant as to how to do clean honest business in non-shoddy products [no pun intended] that benefits everyone involved!

It might genuinely be true that Russia is not providing - at least not the right stuff to the right people!

negi · Post by **negi** » 02 Jun 2011 07:26

arnab wrote: umm - your point that until the 90s the trade deficit was in favour of USSR. I'm saying it still is. And I'm saying that unless Russia makes an effort - the 'strategic' relationship is fast approaching its use-by-date, without any real economics to back it up.

What is this 'strategic' relationship which is nearing it's end ? As far as India is concerned the key point to be noted is we still do not have a place at the high table , Russia has it and it has always backed India when it comes to dealing with the shenanigans of the other member of the P-5. Since when was 'strategic' relationship about buying/selling tel-sabun-joota and chappal onlee ?

sigh ... precisely what I'm saying: Nations do not have friendships. Only interests. And Russia is not providing.

What do you want it to provide ? My point is commercial value of the trade notwithstanding India's and Russia's ambitions in the region are not mutually conflicting as against the likes of USA, China or even the Saudi Arabia these countries are supporting and providing aid to TSP even as we speak.

Why doesn't Unkil provide us the F-22 raptor or as a matter of fact the virginia class supmarines to India ? I for one don't know as to how PAKFA will measure up against the other platforms fielded by the west but at least India is onboard a 5th Generation AC project; I see people jumping about how kudankulam reactors have no liability coverage which is a fair point but hey weren't we untouchables as far as nuclear trade was concerned when that deal was made (courtesy Unkil) ?

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 02 Jun 2011 07:36

Russia is stupid according to current masters of ethics of strategy. The US, PRC, KSA all help TSP because it is in their "national interests". Hence we have nothing to criticize them and in fact we should even admire them for being so "clever". Russia is a fool and hence does not help TSP. Since in international interactions ideological issues do not matter - so Islam versus communism did not matter - just imagine what a great turnaround for Russia it would have been if it simply had "bought" over Pakistan before it moved into AFG! It would have had access straight to the IOR overland - and no need to backup the so-very-clever India! We would be admiring them now for their cleverness.

negi ji, you are speaking of gratitude for past support at crucial points in India's history. But gratitude is for ethically minded fools. Policy should be decided by immediate money in the pockets, of certain sections of society at least. Does not matter that trust is not gained by a prostitute - even if she paints herself as a high class call-girl.

Nripaneeti Varangana sama. We have too many nripas now willing to do the prostitution dance.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 02 Jun 2011 07:37

deleted

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 02 Jun 2011 07:38

negi wrote:What is this 'strategic' relationship which is nearing it's end ? As far as India is concerned the key point to be noted is we still do not have a place at the high table , Russia has it and it has always backed India when it comes to dealing with the shenanigans of the other member of the P-5. Since when was 'strategic' relationship about buying/selling tel-sabun-joota and chappal onlee ?

What do you want it to provide ? My point is commercial value of the trade notwithstanding India's and Russia's ambitions in the region are not mutually conflicting as against the likes of USA, China or even the Saudi Arabia these countries supporting and providing aid to TSP even as we speak.

Negi saar - the day to be grateful for Russia providing cover for Kashmir related issues is long gone. The UN itself has said that the K-issue is dead. So what else does Russia provide? As a quid-pro-quo we had also supported Russia in its Chezch / Hungarian / Afghan ventures. So this 'backing' is reaching its use-by date. The really substantive backing for ending nuke isolation came from the US.

Sir, Russia is providing high tech arms and weapon systems to China even as it denies us tech transfers for T-90 and tyres for SU-30s, despite knowing that China will reverse engineer these. These shennanigans go back to AN-12 days. Tomorrow if China does provide them with greater interests in the region - who knows, it may change and Russian and Indian ambitions may become conflicting.

But simply put - I need to see their capability and intent today before I can have an opinion on their capability and intent in the future. Russia is looking out for her interest and We are looking out for ours. As long as they co-incide fine - but let us not annoint this relationship with anything more than it is.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 02 Jun 2011 07:47

brihaspati wrote: Have you considered the possibility that maybe, just maybe, the Russians got too poor to "give payoffs" to improve "sales"! It might genuinely be true that Russia is not providing - at least not the right stuff to the right people!

Brihaspati ji - Russian oligarchs own a number of English football clubs

They are not poor. But if you could point out any 'non strategic' products that the 'poor' Russians are unable to sell in the Indian market because of not being able to bribe GOI. Would be happy to consider your argument

negi · Post by **negi** » 02 Jun 2011 07:55

arnab wrote: Negi saar - the day to be grateful for Russia providing cover for Kashmir related issues is long gone. The UN itself has said that the K-issue is dead. So what else does Russia provide?

Where did I even mention Kashmir; that's our own fck up.

As a quid-pro-quo we had also supported Russia in its Chezch / Hungarian / Afghan ventures. So this 'backing' is reaching its use-by date. The really substantive backing for ending nuke isolation came from the US.

Come on ! who the fck wants India's quid pro ? Here we are having chai-biskoot with TSP even as we speak who will take us seriously be it IRAQ, Libya, Iran or even Chechniya ? Coming to the nuclear deal US has only made amends for it's earlier fck ups and it strictly relates to the civilian nuclear programme moreover after having seen that TSP got access to the bum India should indeed be thankful to these small mercies from the Unkil which btw are goverened by Unkils' interests more than ours ?

Sir, Russia is providing high tech arms and weapon systems to China even as it denies us tech transfers for T-90 and tyres for SU-30s

To be honest this is a myth; kindly list the 'high tech' arms in question. The usual stuff which fanboys use to support the above are the Su27s and the S-300 PMU1 which by no means are 'high tech' weapons platforms. More importantly the reality is China is a top dawg today unlike TSP it occupies the high table so this attempt to do an == between the Unkil and Russia is pretty silly.

But simply put - I need to see their capability and intent today before I can have an opinion on their capability and intent in the future. Russia is looking out for her interest and We are looking out for ours. As long as the co-incide fine - but let us not annoint this relationship with anything more than it is.

They have at least not been mutually conflicting unlike the 3.5 friends.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 02 Jun 2011 07:56

arnab wrote:
brihaspati wrote: Have you considered the possibility that maybe, just maybe, the Russians got too poor to "give payoffs" to improve "sales"! It might genuinely be true that Russia is not providing - at least not the right stuff to the right people!
Brihaspati ji - Russian oligarchs own a number of English football clubs They are not poor. But if you could point out any 'non strategic' products that the 'poor' Russians are unable to sell in the Indian market because of not being able to bribe GOI. Would be happy to consider your argument

Yeah and many of the rich Roosies got "irradiated" or "reabsorbed" into the reviving sasural system of Russia minus their richness. Anyway, I just asked Sankuji to consider the possibility. Don't you think my suggestion to hire Ottavio ji as consultant may do wonders for all sides? The transactions need not even be done in coal polluted air of India, they could be done in the clean and crisp honest air of business in non-shoddy products and super fast economic growth that flows around the Swiss Alps.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 02 Jun 2011 08:04

brihaspati wrote:Yeah and many of the rich Roosies got "irradiated" or "reabsorbed" into the reviving sasural system of Russia minus their richness. Anyway, I just asked Sankuji to consider the possibility. Don't you think my suggestion to hire Ottavio ji as consultant may do wonders for all sides? The transactions need not even be done in coal polluted air of India, they could be done in the clean and crisp honest air of business and growth that flows around the Swiss Alps.

Well not sure what more Ottavio 'Bofors' ji could manage that the Russians haven't managed on their own

When you ask folks to consider 'possibilities' without any credible examples - it is known as hot air

And why bring in stuff like 'irradiated' and 'coal' - unless you have completely run out of arguments - in which case, you were right to address Sanku ji

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 02 Jun 2011 08:11

negi wrote:Come on ! who the fck wants India's quid pro ? Here we are having chai-biskoot with TSP even as we speak who will take us seriously be it IRAQ, Libya, Iran or even Chechniya ? Coming to the nuclear deal US has only made amends for it's earlier fck ups and it strictly relates to the civilian nuclear programme moreover after having seen that TSP got access to the bum India should indeed be thankful to these small mercies from the Unkil which btw are goverened by Unkils' interests more than ours ?

[To be honest this is a myth; kindly list the 'high tech' arms in question. The usual stuff which fanboys use to support the above are the Su27s and the S-300 PMU1 which by no means are 'high tech' weapons platforms. More importantly the reality is China is a top dawg today unlike TSP it occupies the high table so this attempt to do an == between the Unkil and Russia is pretty silly.

They have at least not been mutually conflicting unlike the 3.5 friends.

Negi ji I sense a strange self loathing here. So it is fine for Russia to suck up to China because it is the heir apparent 'top dawg', despite the fact that they have had border disputes? And providing arms which are definitely high-tech in the regional context (wrt use against India), which would then be used as a base for their own mil-ind complex?

However, when US attempts redemption by offering a nuke deal as partial atonement for past mistakes - you churlishly spit at it by saying they shouldn't have sanctioned us in the first place !!?

second, if Russia was completely disinterested in whether India supported their East european / Afghan aggressions - why would they have tried to retain these 'strategic relationships'. They could have gone and done what they wanted - why try and seek support from India at the UN?

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 02 Jun 2011 08:19

-edited out-

negi · Post by **negi** » 02 Jun 2011 08:40

Arnab China is a P-5 member TSP is not, China is not sending terrorists inside India , TSP is. Hence China although a regional power and a competitor is not menace as far as India is concerned. China had nukes before we had even detonated our first device so to be honest it was already far ahead in the race. TSP has been propped up by Unkil and China and they have been complicit in it's machinations against India and this includes arming it with nukes and delivery platforms and more importantly not only that Unkil had the gall to send in it's 7th fleet of sheep shaggers in 1971 to save paki a$$ and continues to side with them to this day.

US nuclear deal has nothing to do with our security, it continues to arm and aid TSP knowingly and intentionally to further it's interests in the region and that is why I said that commercial trade<>partnership.

Russians bombed Georgia even when Unkil was brandishing it's teeth ; point being as a P-5 member and more importantly with a government that does not shy away from pulling the trigger it does not care; our case is different neither we have a veto in the security council nor b@ll$ to pull the trigger.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 02 Jun 2011 08:53

negi wrote:Arnab China is a P-5 member TSP is not, China is not sending terrorists inside India , TSP is. Hence China although a regional threat is not a immediate menace as far as India is concerned. US nuclear deal has nothing to do with our security, it continues to arm and aid TSP knowingly and intentionally to further it's interests in the region and that is why I said that commercial trade<>partnership.

Russians bombed Georgia even when Unkil was brandishing it's teeth ;.

True - but China is inside India (has our territory), TSP is not (POK notwithstanding). And China is arming TSP (as one of the 3.5). It has provided them with their military industrial base (HIT Taxila for e.g) and their nukes.

US and China both have interests in the Region - but China is over here and can sustain their mischief indefinitely. And their interests are different. US interests have morphed from being a global cop to more of an advanced outpost to stop threats directed towards it either by bribing or killing or both. China is primarily about tripping India in the region. So for me China is the greater of the 2 threats (Even George Fernandes, no friend of INC or US said the same). And Russia providing arms to China is adding to that threat.

Once red lines are crossed - no self respecting countries are shy. P5 or no P5. Look at it this way - resolutions unless backed up by a gun are as worthless as used toilet paper.

negi · Post by **negi** » 02 Jun 2011 08:57

Hey boss; first lets try to swallow a tiny nibble i.e. TSP ; we shall talk about China later.
If this line of argument is pursued one can claim India is biggest supporter of TSP for a huge % of petro dollars going to Saudi Arabia end up with AQ and LeT jihadis.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 02 Jun 2011 09:40

negi wrote:Hey boss; first lets try to swallow a tiny nibble i.e. TSP ; we shall talk about China later.
If this line of argument is pursued one can claim India is biggest supporter of TSP for a huge % of petro dollars going to Saudi Arabia end up with AQ and LeT jihadis.

Actually, this would be more in line with your type of arguments. US is the largest consumer of Saudi oil. So their petro $ end up with LeT. Ergo US is the villain

You are asking for 'swallowing' TSP first. One of their hands is held by China. So to swallow TSP, you will need to swallow China. So might as well conserve your energy to fight with the biggest kid in the block and ignore (at least overtly) the pin pricks of choohas.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Jun 2011 09:48

brihaspati wrote:Sanku ji,
Have you considered the possibility that maybe, just maybe, the Russians got too poor to "give payoffs" to improve "sales"! They should hire Ottavio Quattrocchi from "pucca" non-Russian/"western" credentials as a consultant as to how to do clean honest business in non-shoddy products [no pun intended] that benefits everyone involved!

It might genuinely be true that Russia is not providing - at least not the right stuff to the right people!

Brihaspati-ji, you are certainly right in some ways, that right payoffs need to exist in various ways to the current elite factions ruling the roost, and more so these days than before going by the muck that we see (not only Q but far more)

To that end Russians are certainly not as sophisticated, in addition lack the requisite lack of ideology that is needed for such ventures in comparison with their cousins to the west.

That said, my comment about GoI stepping up to the plate to establish broad based links beyond oil and strategic space was more of "in a ideal world" sort of thinking where we have a half decent leadership in GoI. Basically the strong synergies for trade exist but need to be exploited systematically after sitting across the table with Putin et al with a long term view (not merely the next biggest payoff)

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 02 Jun 2011 09:51

Sanku wrote: It is here that GoI has been remiss (despite BRIC work) , struck as they are with their new found love.

This is a common, and unhelpful, perspective, although not surprising.

Frankly if this serves as a valid excuse for the shoddy performances they have been delivering then anything goes. Some people are bending over backwards to self-flagellate about what India has or hasn't been doing that has caused this sorry situation. Part of being strategically autonomous obviously means we are going to have significant relationships with other major countries. Relationships we can't afford to throw away because someone in the Kremlin is getting jealous.

At this time the balance has decidedly shifted and Russia needs us as much or more than we need them, and we can't be stuck in the Cold War junior-sidekick mentality who has to please his big brother. No one here advocates being Unkil's chamcha- but when it comes to Russia there is still that nostalgic holdover- which is fairly obvious from the hard selling people are doing on its behalf. Time to let it go- it needs to be about interests, not "the warm Russian bear"

In truth I don't think the Russians behavior has anything to do with this specious line of reasoning, they aren't that immature. Although who knows, since right here someone is reporting that Indian complaints about the shoddy service are what led to this.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Jun 2011 09:54

pandyan wrote:How dare grateful SDREs question about poor serviceability/spare parts/quality etc?

Boss, its only due to India-Russia ties that the IN chief can go to Moscow and give the head of Russian Navy a piece of his mind. If it was a SDRE Munna relationship, it would be what happens to Pakistan (and sometimes India now) when the US masters come visiting, they scream and SDREs listen.

Anyway current GoI is a chooha (mouse) in front of pretty much every other power with a lot of reasonable requests and dossier sending, apparently only Russians are poor enough to be handled such, even the tin-pot Maoists from Nepal are feted in New Delhi these days.

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 02 Jun 2011 09:58

These sob stories of "poor Russians" are rather compelling, yet somehow we keep neglecting our own native industries in favor of buying outdated tech like the T-90, which then get lobbied hard by vocal minorities here, so the Russkies obviously have the game figured out to a pretty good degree.

And of course this stuff all gets single-vendored to us without fancy MMRCA competitions.

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 02 Jun 2011 10:00

negi wrote:Arnab China is a P-5 member TSP is not, China is not sending terrorists inside India , TSP is. Hence China although a regional power and a competitor is not menace as far as India is concerned. China had nukes before we had even detonated our first device so to be honest it was already far ahead in the race.

You might be curious as to how China developed nukes so fast. It's rather relevant to what you're responding to.