Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7100
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by shyamd »

RajeshA wrote:Exploring further India's desired strategy in West Asia:

The best outcome from India's PoV would be if the Ghawar Oil Fields in Saudi Arabia changes hands to the Arab Shia. However this needs to be done without giving the Chinese some pretext to bolster their presence in the Indian Ocean Region and to build alliances there for the purpose.

Now if India helps with the first goal, we could seriously jeopardize our future Indian Ocean domination. If we don't, we remain vulnerable to the long term Saudi Wahhabization project in the Indian Subcontinent. At the same time, we need to get a handle on the headache to the West.

If the decision is not to be taken by us, but is imposed on us, that is, the Saudis decide to hitch their wagon to the Chinese inviting them in, then the path for India to take is clear. Then we invest as much as we can, possibly through Iraqi Shi'ite militias or the government there, in training Saudi Hezbollah. We get every healthy Shia male we can from Al Ahsa Province and turn him into a commando.

If we have to take the decision, we establish an alliance with the Saudis, keep the Chinese away from our pond, and work to unravel Pakistan. In that case we allow the Al Ahsa transformation to be undertaken by other forces.
Not sure if you read my post on Iran developing Mahdi army and Badr Brigade.

The key is to strengthen the Iraqi army (which is what the US is trying to do in its own sly little way). Key will be the air force in todays warfare. Iraq's army was being developed to be able to repulse any Iranian aggression by 2015 (not knowing that Iraq will side with Iran) so its like they are fooling the sunni's. Iraq and Iran are now one. The west is strengthening Iraq. Right now Iraq could get battered in a conventional war - since it has a non existent air force. So, key is to develop Iraq into a strong force and keep Assad in Syria.

KSA is proposing a foreign legion to fight Iranian expansion.,
Samudragupta
BRFite
Posts: 625
Joined: 12 Nov 2010 23:49
Location: Some place in the sphere

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Samudragupta »

The Prussian General Staff: Lessons for Indian Think Tankers

Before skeptics argue that the politico-military contexts of 19th century Prussia and 21st century India cannot be compared, this essay would hasten to point out that its argument is more illustrative than prescriptive. Undoubtedly, local and historical particularities limit the degree to which lessons can be extrapolated from one case and applied to another. However, erstwhile Prussia and today’s India share at least two common characteristics. Firstly, from an early stage of their existence they both faced existentialist threats from belligerent neighbours, and had to rely on a combination of diplomacy and military power to survive. In particular, being predominantly land-based powers, they needed to be ever-alert to the possibility of a two-front attack across their western and eastern borders.

Secondly, while aspiring for great power status, they were also saddled with the task of building a sense of Nationhood among diverse peoples. While Prussia was an extremely powerful kingdom in Europe, it had rivals among lesser Germanic fiefdoms. Overcoming these antagonisms to forge a sense of Pan-Germanic unity was a long and laborious process, helped mainly by the fact that the Prussian nobility allowed talented individuals from non-Prussian families to rise in the official hierarchy. This assimilatory quality needs to be emulated by the modern-day Indian policymaking apparatus, so that all Indians, whether Kashmiris, Punjabis, Nagas, Tamils, Assamese or otherwise, can feel that they have a stake in India’s rise to international prominence and lend their efforts towards this endeavour.
An Institute…as well as an Institution

What lessons could the Prussian General Staff offer Indian think tank managers in the 21st century? First, that small is better. 24The relatively tiny size of the Staff did not detract from its respectability, once it demonstrated that it possessed expertise which no field commander had, and none could do without. Specialized knowledge that complemented the efforts of established power structures, instead of competing with them, made it relevant to operational planning. Second, that multidisciplinary research is the key to innovation. Even as the Staff acquired in-depth expertise, it broadened its mandate to include topics that went beyond the purely military. General Staff officers for instance, were expected to know the intricacies of diplomatic procedures since war plans had to take into account formal protocols for declaring war. They also needed to consider public administration, since militarization of Prussian society made the army responsible in wartime for functions normally handled by civilian authorities. The General Staff was in effect, a small but multidisciplinary think tank.

Such a combination of compactness and diverse expertise has the potential to overcome, at least partially, the handicaps referred to earlier in this essay. Maintenance costs will be low in a think tank staffed with a few top-quality researchers. Although these researchers would have to be adequately compensated for their services, such compensation could take the form of actually including them in policy debates, rather than handing out fat paychecks. The closest that India ever got to creating a nationalistic-intellectual elite comparable to the Prussian General Staff was the Ear-Marking System of the Intelligence Bureau. Introduced in 1954, it stipulated that the best police officers in the country would have to work on strategic intelligence.25They would handle both operations and analysis, thus monitoring developments on the ground while also developing a long-term perspective. All that they received by way of compensation was a salary increment of 200 rupees. Since the Ear-Marking System was discontinued in the late 1970s, India’s security establishment currently has no means of ‘concentrating the best brain power…where it would do the most good’.26

Third, the experience of the Prussian General Staff suggests that policy advisors do their best work out of the public glare. Unlike most think tanks today, which measure policy impact based on webpage hits and media quotes, a genuinely influential research center will prepare reports for an elite audience of policymakers, not a rabble of curious onlookers. It would draft policy papers before the terms of debate have already been set, so as to stand the best chance of influencing policy discussions. Such anticipatory assessments would prevent it from being used as a pawn in bureaucratic turf battles, or as a rubber stamp for policy initiatives already decided upon. To ensure that its ideas are circulated widely, it would not depend on media sound bytes but would instead operate a revolving door recruitment policy. New analysts would replace old ones in a cyclical process, while fraternal links are constantly maintained with like-minded researchers outside the formal organizational structure. That way, a think tank would be not just an institute, it would gradually become an institution.

Lastly, the case of the Prussian General Staff goes to prove that mindset changes do not occur randomly, they are triggered by powerful reform movements that are personality-driven. Prussia was motivated to set up a professional Staff system due to the shock of its 1806 defeat and the strategic vision of high-ranking generals like Scharnhorst. Without his patronage and that of his fellow-reformers the General Staff would not have even survived long enough for Moltke to come along and mould it into a war-winning instrument. India needs a similar reform movement in security affairs, to be spearheaded by distinguished veterans of the policymaking establishment. The 2008 Mumbai attacks and growing threats from a China-Pakistan nexus could serve as a catalyst for change, provided a comparable sense of zealous activism pervades the Indian intellectual and security communities.
http://www.vifindia.org/article/2011/ma ... nk-Tankers
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Institutional change?!! a most thorny issue even now in sociology. My explorations on this suggests that such changes can only be brought about by people who care sufficiently about the institution itself to try to change it, but at the same time not so deeply self-identified with it to make it impossible to think of changing it.

Institutional leaders referred above were themselves filtered through the institution - and so may not have the psychological profile to want to change it to a degree beyond comfort of their identification with the institution. Especially given the almost monarchist character of the rashtryia machinery that has developed in India.
Samudragupta
BRFite
Posts: 625
Joined: 12 Nov 2010 23:49
Location: Some place in the sphere

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Samudragupta »

B ji,
But ultimately they were successful in their project.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Depends on what is defined to be the "project"! :) Moreover, what are the criteria of success? For India - if so?
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Some people fear an "emergency" like situation from the Baba Ramdev issue. However, what is more important to see is that the current regime is already suffering from a siege mentality, and it has run out of political enemies in its repertoire to base all their paranoia on the "saffron" or the "RSS".

That the Congress has inherently been reduced to a core which thinks more and more on religious and community lines only, while finding comfort and solace in anti-saffron ideologies - comes out increasingly in its differential reactions to Islamism or Maoist shenanigans in their formal "legal" manifestations compared to what they dish out to anything remotely connected to the "Hindu".

This is a different line of development compared to the 1920's and 30's. The last time though when the official gov started pandering to Islamism, as a tool against the "majority" - we landed up with the Partition.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

The Congress line of openly coming out in support of Palestinian statehood based on pre-1967 borders has this matching one from the FM of Israel:

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPoliti ... 12086&R=R1
Lieberman: Palestinian statehood declaration a 'red line'
By JPOST.COM STAFF
03/14/2011 15:57

FM says West should resolve Kashmir conflict before trying here; Hamas more powerful than Fatah, waiting to seize power from it in W. Bank.

Addressing the possibility that the Palestinian Authority might unilaterally declare statehood later this year, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman called such a move a red line that shouldn't be crossed.

"Israel has no shortage of leverage that it can use on the PA" in a way that is also unilateral, the foreign minister told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

Lieberman also leveled criticism at the international community, saying: "The western world isn't succeeding at resolving conflicts in the world. If they succeed to solve the problems in Kashmir, we'll allow them to help us to deal with the Israeli-Palestinian problem."

He added, "Until today, the international community hasn't upheld any agreement signed with Israel - exemplified by [UN Security Council] Resolution 1701 in southern Lebanon that hasn't been implemented."
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by ramana »

I think wrong analogy due to distress.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

More along the same lines :
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/ ... what-next/
Never mind that there has never before been a Palestinian state and that such a unilateral decision will simply encourage resolution of disputes by terrorism and not by a diplomatic process. The question for the international community should be where will this precedent lead?

Certainly, the Kurds throughout southeastern Turkey see parallels. Perhaps the European Union will finally embrace Turkey, but only after dismantling much of its territory. Maybe at some point, the Islamic bloc—upset at Canada’s embrace of free speech against the Organization of Islamic Conference’s efforts to criminalize criticism of Islamist extremism—will team up with Quebecois separatists and vote to recognize Quebec. Islamists upset with Denmark over cartoons? Time to agitate for Greenland’s independence. Forget the Dayton Accords and Bosnia’s stability: It’s time for the Republic Srpska to go its own way and if Europeans don’t see the Bosnian Serbs’ logic, perhaps they can be convinced by some bombs in cafes and train stations. Iran will certainly vote for Palestine, but is it prepared for Saudi Arabia to recognize Sistan va Balochestan? Had this precedent already been established during the Iran-Iraq War, perhaps the Arab bloc would have recognized Khuzistan as “Arabistan,” just as Saddam Hussein had wanted.

Bernard Lewis once pointed out that if the UN applied the same definition of refugees upon those uprooted by India’s partition that it does to Palestinians, there would be 140 million refugees in South Asia. Time for unilateral recognition of Kashmir or its award to Pakistan? As India grows more prosperous, many countries seeking to weaken the new economic superpower will have interest in instigating separatist movements in the world’s largest democracy and, with a UN majority, these retrograde countries could theoretically be victorious.

The United Nations – with quiet European encouragement and not-so quiet Islamic bloc encouragement – is about to unleash an avalanche. The only question is how many will die in the terrorism they will unleash and conflicts they will spark.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

ramana wrote:I think wrong analogy due to distress.
Both sides have a point in using "Kashmir" and believe me they will use it for obvious reasons. Either way, India will have to choose sides. Hoping to pacify imaginary "Muslim sentiments" can cut back in many different ways - in the end pacifying and satisfying no one.
UBanerjee
BRFite
Posts: 537
Joined: 20 Mar 2011 01:41
Location: Washington DC

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by UBanerjee »

I'm firmly convinced that Indian support for Palestine will come back to bite us hard in the musharraf. It is a short-sighted appeasement policy done to ingratiate ourselves with the Gulf, with IMs and carries on the old legacy of being "moral leader of 3rd world basket case NAM nations", a group of worthy nations who can unite on Israel among very few other things.

The Israelis are correctly pointing out that all sorts of secessionist and nationhood claims get ignored routinely while they are continually bombarded with sanctimonious preaching on the matter.

Basically every non-Muslim Asian country with a Muslim minority has such a secessionist movement. In Western Europe they haven't bothered because 1) they have just started immigrating, give it a century and 2) they have some confidence in getting the whole fruit itself.

Boy, I wonder which of these "home-grown" movements will take the spotlight of the Eurotrash/Arab/UN human rights crowd once Israel is crossed off the checklist? :roll:
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RajeshA »

ramana wrote:I think wrong analogy due to distress.
There is a night-and-day difference in the issue of Palestine and Kashmir. However from a certain perspective both are similar - both are "Muslim issues" for the wider Ummah, as well as issues for the West to play regional politics with.
UBanerjee wrote:I'm firmly convinced that Indian support for Palestine will come back to bite us hard in the musharraf. It is a short-sighted appeasement policy done to ingratiate ourselves with the Gulf, with IMs and carries on the old legacy of being "moral leader of 3rd world basket case NAM nations", a group of worthy nations who can unite on Israel among very few other things.

The Israelis are correctly pointing out that all sorts of secessionist and nationhood claims get ignored routinely while they are continually bombarded with sanctimonious preaching on the matter.

Basically every non-Muslim Asian country with a Muslim minority has such a secessionist movement. In Western Europe they haven't bothered because 1) they have just started immigrating, give it a century and 2) they have some confidence in getting the whole fruit itself.

Boy, I wonder which of these "home-grown" movements will take the spotlight of the Eurotrash/Arab/UN human rights crowd once Israel is crossed off the checklist? :roll:
World politics is simply not a straight forward expression of honesty, of making the choices of the heart, of making the choice according to the values one stands for!

Often one comes out in support of one issue which grips some community in order to screw the community somewhere else, both to impress upon the community that one is not against it per se, but only with respect to some particular issue. This is done to ensure that the whole community does not turn as a whole against the party, and that the party can continue to receive cooperation from the community to some extent in areas of its self-interests.

Secondly a nation may have internal constituencies to placate in order to ensure internal harmony.

On top of this, a party may need to cooperate with another party which too is under siege by the same community, and would have to find means and ways to do this without upsetting one's position on issues one supports.

Now these are simply the laws of politics!

Now Israeli support to the Kashmir Azadi cause does not really bring any dividends for the Israelis, because that would not stop the exercised Muslims all over the world in hating the guts of Israelis for sitting on "Muslim" lands and occupying the third holiest mosque in the Islamic world.

For the West, the Kashmir Azadi cause did bring certain dividends so they latched on to it, but also on to the cause of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, and at a certain level of civil society and humanitarianism also to the issue of Palestinian Self-Determination. If the Kashmiri Azadi Cause had exercised the awareness of the wider Muslim world to a larger extent than it does now, the whole of West too would have jumped on to the bandwagon and tried to take pot shots at India far more often and be willing to become Islam's handmaiden in subverting India far more openly and to a much larger extent. India has been able to leverage our Kashmri difficulties by supporting the Palestinian cause politically on the one hand and building an intelligence-sharing and defense relationship with Israel on the other.

So India's support for the Palestinian cause does bring India dividends for it stops the whole of Ummah in strengthening the Pakistani stand on Kashmir.

There is absolutely nothing wrong in supporting the Palestinian cause politically, even the USA, Israel's best buddy does it, as long as we do not put Israel under undue pressure. And yes, the Israelis too would shout back at us on Kashmir when we make a statement on Palestine, and we should not get all too worked up by their comments because they would not change anything, neither in the Muslim world nor in the West. We can digest their retorts on Kashmir without much difficulty. Should the retort be coming from some Muslim country, then it would require a response.

Despite all this playing to the gallery, India can continue to have a healthy and substantial close relationship with Israel.

Having said that, it is not in India's interest that Palestinian issue receives a closure, for then it takes away a Muslim cause we can support publicly. Moreover then the attention of the Muslim world could be diverted to India.

Let's not forget that India would be a big market for Israeli companies. It already is in the defense sector. All this is money Israel direly needs to keep its economy afloat and staying a leader in the defense sphere, and keep its lead over the neighboring Arab countries.

So it is in India's interest to both support the Palestinian cause politically as well as to make Israel an impenetrable fortress ruling over "Palestinian" territories, at least until India has solved the Pakistani conundrum.
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12686
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Pratyush »

Deleted and posted to GDF version.

B Ji please edit your post as well
Last edited by Pratyush on 08 Jun 2011 18:55, edited 1 time in total.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Israelis are not supporting Kazadi. They have simply thrown back the example of Kazadi at their western bene-detractors and also slapped GOI on the sly for its pro-Islamist calculations. From the GOI perception, does India lose a great deal if Israel vanishes? From the primarily Christian-Islamist and anti Hindu underlying drive that seems to determine the ruling regimes' political calculations - there is no loss really if it goes whole hog for Palestine. Military collaboration has alternatives with other forces and countries.

Formation of Palestine will not stop the demand for Kazadi, but will lend wind to it. the Isalmist programme to carve out separate Islamist homeland from non-Muslim countries has not failed so far unless those countries happened to be "core" western or Russia and China.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Pratyush ji
Thanks.
Last edited by brihaspati on 09 Jun 2011 06:47, edited 1 time in total.
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12686
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Pratyush »

B Ji,

If you think appropriate.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

http://www.facenfacts.com/NewsDetails/1 ... :india.htm
"Yes, of course it did. Pakistan has not been playing fair with us. And we would expect in the larger interest of our bilateral relationship Pakistan, must come clean on this issue," Krishna told reporters in Bangalore, asked if India believed that the trial in the US had hit a roadblock because of Pakistan.

The remarks came after a US jury cleared Pakistan-born Canadian Tahawwur Rana of charges that he helped with the Mumbai attack. He has been found guilty of supporting Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Islamist militant group, for its planned attack on Danish newspaper.

Krishna pointed out that the trial in the US court had established substantial linkages between Rana and David Coleman Headley who has disclosed links between Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Mumbai terror attack.

"The fact remains that throughout the last few months when the trial was going and in reports of evidence there were substantial linkages between these two facing trial in the Mumbai attack. This is something which Pakistan must very seriously consider," he said.
I am not sure that he is is being aware of the implication of what he is saying and what it really means longer term for the subcontinent. He is effectively saying that Pakistan can influence an American jury.

Second he is weakening the case for those among his own party who cast doubts on the Pak origins of the 26/11 attacks and try to implicate "Hindu" right wing into it.

The minister sought a transparent probe into the Mumbai attack in Pakistan.

"It is something Pakistan must consider seriously. It is in its own interest and in the interest of the region and that of the bilateral relations that the conspiracy which began in Mumbai attack has to be investigated in a transparent manner," Krishna said.

The minister said the acquittal of Rana was not satisfying for India.

"The judicial process has taken its view, a particular view, which we may not be very satisfied with," he said about the ruling that has "disappointed" India.

Krishna stressed that India could not do much about getting Rana convicted in the US but would pursue his case in India. "You cannot dictate to the judicial process. Well that is the law of the land, you are dealing with a foreign country and naturally you have to pursue further."

Krishna's reminder to Pakistan to come clean on Mumbai terror comes even as the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan gear up for talks towards the end of the month.

The talks between top diplomats could set the stage for talks between the foreign ministers of the two countries, the first such meeting at that level since the failed talks in mid-July last year.
By acknowledging India's "helplessness", he is actually and effectively sealing off any possibility of Pakistan ever being punished or being brought to account for its role. By promising and stressing a completely "peaceful" pursuit of "justice", this regime first lost opportunity of an immediate retaliation [after a possible tactical wait to disarm preparations from pak side] when international opinion would have been partly paralyzed. Then it lost the "legal" opportunity too now on which it pacified demands for retaliation.

So ultimately Pakistan scores again - because the "talks" and dialogue will not be derailed. Pakistan, in spite of not being a functional economy - will still manage to keep afloat milking both the USA and China, so that the "economic outpacing" argument will also fail in bringing any redressal.

Or was it known all along that there would be no justice, and that "tempers" and emotions had to be "cooled" down by holding out illusions of "peaceful" pursuit of "justice" - so that Pakistan could be preserved for both certain Indian political groups as well as US+PRC interests?
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Was so much intensity poured into BR issue to divert attention from what was coming in the US courts?
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

After "corruption" in India became a headache for concerned benevolent well-wishers of India in the "west", with a due time lag, the movement for a crusade against "corruption" apparently snowballed within India. Miraculously, that crusade also found the government "bureaucracy" - perhaps some of the most obnoxious sources of intransigence in the way of benevolent "reordering" of Indian society as per late 20th century European/Christian ideals about what ex-colonies should evolve as - the deepest/largest/widest source of corruption. Even the Jesuit Archbishop of Delhi and a Jesuit-human-rights activist were kind enough to lend support to the crusade publicly, and happened to remember relevant examples only in states governed by BJP led governments.

Now, after the "corruption" has become a serious piece of business with the potential to launch or end public careers, we have perhaps a new stick to beat India with. For almost 6-7 years now, a lot of western media noise was consistently being raised about "female infanticide" in India. Part of the electronic media traffic was generated from sources with overtly religious commitments towards certain faiths popular in the west, and the others stemmed from sources linked to left leaning positions. Not that it detracts any from the reality behind their accusations and dramatizations. But now The Guardian has taken it up to disseminate this "dark side" of India, based on a survey.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ju ... stan-india
The headline runs in large fonts:
Afghanistan worst place in the world for women, but India in top five
Then in smaller caps:
Survey shows Congo, Pakistan and Somalia also fail females, with rape, poverty and infanticide rife
Targeted violence against female public officials, dismal healthcare and desperate poverty make Afghanistan the world's most dangerous country in which to be born a woman, according to a global survey released on Wednesday.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Pakistan, India and Somalia feature in descending order after Afghanistan in the list of the five worst states, the poll among gender experts shows.

The appearance of India, a country rapidly developing into an economic super-power, was unexpected. It is ranked as extremely hazardous because of the subcontinent's high level of female infanticide and sex trafficking.
Now who was the survey conducted on and whose opinion is reflected in the "survey response"?
The survey was based on responses from more than 200 aid professionals, academics, health workers, policymakers, journalists and development specialists chosen for their expertise in gender issues.
So will the "gender issue" become the next vehicle to launch some new political and public careers? What is the role being played by "aid professionals, academics,, policymakers, journalists and development specialists" in India's strategic space?
abhischekcc
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4277
Joined: 12 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: If I can’t move the gods, I’ll stir up hell
Contact:

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by abhischekcc »

brihaspati wrote:Was so much intensity poured into BR issue to divert attention from what was coming in the US courts?
IMO, BRD's campaign was broken to facilitate the re-rise of the establishment supported anti-corruption campaign of Anna Hazare.

This also explains Anna Hazare's flip flop on support to Baba Ramdev. As BRD was getting popular, AH jumped on his bandwagon. Then when govt goons attacked BRD, after initially being on BRD's side, AH went out of his camp with the insulting remark that BRD is too immature to lead a political campaign.

Now, AH and NAC and GOI are back to the drama of negotiating the bill for legalised permanent dictatorship, aka the Jan Lok Pal bill.
Sanku
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12526
Joined: 23 Aug 2007 15:57
Location: Naaahhhh

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Sanku »

abhischekcc wrote:Now, AH and NAC and GOI are back to the drama of negotiating the bill for legalised permanent dictatorship, aka the Jan Lok Pal bill.
Well whatever was the initial story now both parties have so liberally flung so much muck on each other (kangress vs lefties) that whatever happens, the muck is gonna stick.

Very difficult to take back some of the things that have been said.

I am loving it onleee....
:mrgreen:
devesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5129
Joined: 17 Feb 2011 03:27

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by devesh »

Baba Ramdev will keep the pressure on INC. and this will make sure that AH won't get in bed with INC. b/c doing so would only hurt his image when Ramdev is still out there valiantly fighting the INC, AH can't become the "sarkari sant." RD will keep increasing awareness, keep pressure on INC, and make sure that there is somebody always watching to make sure AH can't backstab mango Indians. the strategy is to withdraw from direct confrontation but continue to paint a target on INC's back, drawing the ire of the public, which keeps AH a safe distance from INC and thus reduces the chances of bonhomie on Lokpal.

keeping this in context, now I think I understand RD's actions over the past few weeks. he has attracted so much attention that it will stay focused on the issue. now, he can play the real game that he wants to play. I might be wrong, but I think RD's real strategy is starting to emerge.
Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21234
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Prem »

While we cater our natural Melancholia ,lets do a pre Skol to upcoming glad tiding from Laxmi Devi .
From Bahi Khatta Dhaga
SwamyG wrote:
So that puts India at $4t in 2016-2017 time frame. Maybe we will hit that mark in 2016; 2015 be good onlee.

:D
4T will buy us enough security/ strength to never have to look back and for sure will propel India into entirely different league.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Meanwhile - while some are out to claim that Zawahiri will be unable to revive the effectiveness of AQ, others are worried about India becoming a target. After B Raman garu, we have Praveen Swamy - and wonder of wonders - writing in "The Hindu" :

http://www.hindu.com/2011/06/17/stories ... 760100.htm
India could be key target of new al-Qaeda chief:
Praveen Swami


Al-Zawahiri under pressure to establish power over jihadists

NEW DELHI: India could be one of several new theatres targeted by al-Qaeda's newly-appointed chief to establish his authority over the jihadist group and its allies, intelligence sources say.
[...]
Long-standing problems between the Egyptian jihadist circles led by al-Zawahiri and their Yemeni and Saudi counterparts, though, mean he could turn to Pakistani jihadists to execute his plans. Fakir Muhammad, a top jihadist commander who has repulsed multiple military campaigns to retake his strongholds in northwest Pakistan's Bajaur agency, is among al-Zawahiri's closest allies.

Hatred against India runs deep amongst Pakistan's Islamists, and targeting it could prove a means for leaders like Fakir Muhammad to win domestic legitimacy, as well as draw cadre away from organisations that have been reined in by Pakistan since the November 2008 Mumbai attacks, like the Lashkar-e-Taiba.


Fears that al-Qaeda will choose India as a theatre to expand have been mounting since last summer, when al-Zawahiri's former deputy released an audiotape claiming responsibility for the 2009 bombing of a café in Pune.

“I bring you the good tidings,” al-Masri said in the audiotape, “that last February's India operation was against a Jewish locale in the west of the Indian capital [sic.].”

Muhammad Ilyas Kashmiri, a Pakistani jihadist, reported — but not proven —to have been killed in a drone strike earlier this year, was announced to have set up a special unit to stage the Pune bombing and future strikes.

Al-Zawahiri was among the first international jihadist leaders to mention India, writing in a manifesto published in 2001 that his cadre had “revived a religious duty of which the [Muslim] nation had long been deprived, by fighting in Afghanistan, Kashmir, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Chechnya.”

The theme was taken up by bin Laden himself in 1996, when he issued a declaration condemning “massacres in Tajikistan, Burma, Kashmir, Assam, the Philippines, Pattani, Ogaden, Somalia, Eritrea, Chechnya, and Bosnia-Herzegovina.”

Later, in September 2003, al-Zawahiri again invoked India to warn Pakistanis that their President, General Pervez Musharraf, was plotting to “hand you over to the Hindus and flee to enjoy his secret accounts.”
[...]
The statement also called on “the Muslim people to rise and continue resistance, sacrifice and persistence [until] full and anticipated change comes, which will not be achieved except by the Islamic nation's return to the law of its Lord.”
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

This news must have appeared in other threads. But I am reproducing it here for several interesting indications for the future as well as where our rashtryia machineries and functionaries are heading.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110407/j ... 821879.jsp
SC moots govt-MNC link to Maoism
OUR LEGAL CORRESPONDENT

New Delhi, April 6: The Supreme Court today wondered whether faulty development practices were the “root cause” of the Maoist insurgency in Chhattisgarh, and asked the state how many agreements it had signed with multi-nationals and how it was using the state’s financial resources. It also asked the state government to explain how and under what rules it recruited and armed the Koya commandos — special police officers (SPOs) fighting the Maoists.

“How many MoUs (memoranda of understanding) have been signed with MNCs? What is happening to the financial resources of the state?” the court said, asking the state to explain it in an affidavit by Friday.

“That seems to be the root cause. This could be leading to displacement of tribals in the state,” the bench of Justice B. Sudershan Reddy and Justice S.S. Nijjar added.

This is the final outcome of the trend that we seen in the whirlwind around the formation of the Lokpal - the insistence of predominance of brains with "legal background" and setting such brains above the rest of mere mortal Indians. Underlying is the belief [or perhaps delusion] that "legal minds" somehow gain a supreme intellectual perspective that can deliver the ultimate prophetic utterances of profound truth. However what the comments show is an uncanny parallel to what appears to be also dominating the self-styled "eminent intellectual" thought process in India. mostly based on sly and half-baked pseudo-economics. The "legal minds" seem to be not rising above the "Centre-left" whiskey fueled evening soiree intellectualism - that links MNC's-tribals-development-Maoists are friends of the poor -[or they are good because they go after non-Congress regimes extra hard].

Would we not expect something refreshing and different from supreme legal luminaries of our country - at a much deeper and more profound level -different from the leftist "intellectual"?
The court was hearing petitions seeking its intervention to ensure relief and rehabilitation for those displaced by the government-Maoist battle in Chhattisgarh. The petitions were filed by social activists Nandini Sundar and Kartam Joga. State counsel Harish N. Salve denied any link between the development practices and the rise of the Maoists.
The media gives a Freudian slip - it thinks of this as a "battle", like two regular legitimate armies from two sovereign nations fighting it out. In the eye of the media, the Maoists are already a legitimate force. Note that typically similar struggles or confrontation in "Kashmir" is dubbed "encounters going on".
The court asked about the recruitment rules and service conditions for the Koya commandos after counsel Nitya Ramakrishnan accused the state of letting the Salwa Judum continue in another form. The Salwa Judum was a state-backed, anti-Maoist vigilante group that was accused of atrocities on tribals.

Ramakrishnan alleged the Koya militia had been burning villages and raping women. Justice Reddy then told the state: “You are recruiting them and arming them. This is a serious thing. If you are arming them, where will civil society go?
Actually rarely is the Maoist accused of "rape". The recent "coming out" of a Maoist woman wik allegations of sexual violence and rape - has gone down the dark drain of media silence and amnesia. But most importantly the "legal background" shows up another interesting element in the "legal thought process" - it is so concerned about the "civil society"! It is interesting to note that they are using the expression in a slightly different sense than perhaps what the Lokpal bill draft means. But in some sense it is creating a separate category of "society" that is apparently free of overlap with the "confrontation" itself - a society that is not already involved or has taken sides.
The court asked the state to explain whether social activist Swami Agnivesh was attacked during a recent visit to Chhattisgarh. News reports had said a crowd of women and SPOs had thrown eggs at Agnivesh, pulled him out of his car, and prevented him from reaching a site of allegedly atrocity by the security forces. Agnivesh, who was in the courtroom, gave a first-hand account of the intimidation he faced in the state.

Salve said a district judge had been appointed to investigate the alleged attack and offered to have it probed by a high court judge.
Agnivesh is an interesting parallel to the "liberation-theology" as applied to an overt "Hindu" posturing. It is also interesting that neither "liberation-theology", both in its Christian form or the form represented by "Hindu" Agnivesh - attract any scathing attack from the Centre-Left intellectual spectrum.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Here is one of the first signs of fractures in the CCP-PLA pillar of Chinese "communism", where the regime has to roll-back and intervene in structures it had rolled out itself. This internal conflict of interest is deep - when it reflects in a split within the "elite". There are other signs of it too, but here is one from the legal side - covering a wider social conflict of interest.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MF25Ad02.html
The substitution of the due process of law by mediation, however, has been criticized by experts as eroding the rule of law, and depriving citizens of their constitutional rights of being protected by legal and judicial institutions. Ong Yew-kim, an adjunct professor at Beijing's China University of Law and Political Science, pointed out that tiaojie was, in fact, evidence of a rolling back of legal and judicial reform.

"The professional status of the courts has been compromised since judges are asked to engage in the political task of upholding social harmony," Ong said. "Ordinary Chinese who want to seek legal redresses may be turned away by the courts under the pretext of maximizing harmony."

Vice president of Beijing's Renmin University Wang Liming warned that legal professionals should "guard against the judicial tendency of putting excessive emphasis on mediation". "Courts are not mediation organizations," said Wang, a legal scholar and NPC member. "Putting mediation above adjudication is at variance with the social status and functions that the law has given our courts."

Two recent cases of tiaojie, which have been handled by police in tandem with judicial organs, have underscored the dangers of putting harmony above the rule of law. In the run-up to the 22nd anniversary of the June 4, 1989 crackdown, the Tiananmen Mothers - a world-renowned non-governmental organization (NGO) seeking justice for the massacre victims - disclosed that authorities in the capital had tried to "mediate" with the parents of a Tiananmen victim by offering them an undisclosed sum of money.

The strings attached to this tiaojie ploy were that the parents would have to give up their right to sue the party and government for responsibility for the killings. In an open letter released on June 1, the Tiananmen Mothers said this attempt by the powers-that-be to seek a "private settlement" through paying hush money amounted to "desecrating the spirit of the June 4 victims and hurting the personal dignity of the victims' relatives".

The other incident involves the hundreds of thousands of parents whose infants fell sick in 2008 and 2009 after consuming milk power tainted with melamine. Since then, efforts by the victims' relatives - as well as by Zhao Lianhai, the well-respected head of an NGO representing the aggrieved parties - to take the manufacturers to court have been in vain.

Attempts by four parents to seek compensation via Hong Kong courts were also unsuccessful. Zhao himself was sentenced last November to two-and-a-half years in jail for "inciting social disorder". Since 2010, however, representatives of the China Dairy Products Association (CDPA) as well as relevant health and police departments have been putting pressure on concerned parents to consider out-of-court tiaojie.

Last month, the CDPA announced that 270,000 families had accepted a total of 910 million yuan (US$141 million)) of compensation. Chinese and Hong Kong media have reported that as a result of pocketing the one-off "reconciliation fee", the parents have given up their right to future legal action.

Zhao, who was released on medical bail earlier this year, noted that "many families had no choice but to accept the meager settlement because they could not get a fair hearing in the courts".

The substitution of due legal process by mediation is only one manifestation of the overall degeneration of judicial standards. That judges, together with public-security agents, have become an integral part of the CCP's apparatus for imposing "democratic proletarian dictatorship" against its perceived enemies was evidenced by the heavy sentences that the courts have slapped on hundreds of dissidents and NGO activists since the late 2000s.

While chief justice Wang has advocated mediation and reconciliation to promote harmony as an overall principle, the courts have worked hand-in-glove with police units to mete out stiff jail terms to dissidents in the apparent absence of sufficient evidence.

For example, scholar and public intellectual Liu Xiaobo was sentenced in late 2009 to 11 years in jail for "inciting subversion of state power". A year later, the pacifist activist, whose most famous statement is "I have no enemies", was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to world acclaim.

A just-published book by Chinese University of Hong Kong Law Professor Mike McConville noted that judges and prosecutors had suffered from increasing "administrative interference" by parties including the police and the CCP Central Commission on Political and Legal Affairs (CCPLA), which exercises tight control over the police, procuratorates and courts.

Rather than presuming the innocence of the accused, McConville wrote, "Judges and prosecutors join hands with the police to make a case against suspects." The professor cited one senior judicial official as saying that "judges naturally presume that the defendant is guilty".

From early 2010 onwards, scores of dissidents and activists who have run afoul of the authorities have simply disappeared. Foremost among the victims is human rights lawyer Gao Zhisheng, who was globally recognized for his pro bono services for groups ranging from exploited workers to members of underground churches.

Gao dropped out of sight in April 2010 after having undergone more than three years of repeated harassment and detention by police and state-security agencies.

Moreover, a sizeable number of public intellectuals and NGO organizers have remained under house arrest even after they had formally served out their jail terms. The most famous case is that of "barefoot lawyer" Chen Guangcheng, who was released last September after having been jailed for four years for "disturbing public order". The blind activist garnered international sympathy particularly for his work against the forced abortion of village women.

In all these instances, the courts have refused to accept writs filed by the dissidents' lawyers. The situation has worsened considerably after a series of "color revolutions" struck the Middle East and North Africa early this year. Avant-garde artist Ai Weiwei "disappeared" in early April, and since then the police and the courts have refused to even talk to lawyers hired by Ai's family members. He was released this week, with officials saying he had been held over tax evasion matters.

In a speech at Peking University last month, veteran legal scholar and reformer Jiang Ping expressed worries that "the emphasis on the principle of 'stability overriding everything' could engender the rule of man" instead of rule of law. "I often say that as far as the rule of law goes, there have been ups and downs in recent history," he said. "Very often it's one step backward and two step forwards."

The 81-year-old law professor warned, however, that in recent years "it's been one step forward and two steps backward". "We have been retrogressing in the main, and this is a terrible phenomenon."

For cadres such as Wang, a former police officer and CCPLA bureaucrat who has never attended law school, however, legal and judicial niceties pale in comparison to the CCP's overwhelming imperative to nip all destabilizing agents in the bud.
I still feel that the current PRC setup will fall apart within the next 20-25 years, and the irrevocable slide will start showing signs openly in the next 15 years. Any sense of things spiraling out of control can lead to adventurous policies by one or more rival factions within the CCP. Moreover such adventurous tendencies can be sought to be used by entities like the rump state of Pakistan.

At the moment I see people only gearing up for increasingly stable and strong PRC and its pseudo-communist regime. But it might also be worthwhile to think of an alternative future, where CCP-PLA axis feels itself on the brink and rival factions start positioning themselves for control after the "fall".
devesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5129
Joined: 17 Feb 2011 03:27

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by devesh »

question is will all this "destabilization" prove to be a catalyst to rectify the deracination imposed by Mao? will they start looking for their roots and age old culture again? will they even feel the need to do it? will EJism play a role? they could be gearing up to develop a fifth column to undermine Chinese native thinking and position themselves in a powerful position. perhaps something like a Christianistan?
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

devesh ji,
actually, the issue of internal effects on culture and society within China is less of concern for me for this particular case. Yes Christianity is sought to be used to re-expand, and they might indeed have greater chance now because Maoism has apparently wiped the slate clean of overt religious forms. But you will be surprised to know the degree of remnant Buddhist and Confucian/Taoist thought underground. So Chrisitianity will have greater success among the descendants of the communist power elite and more among the urban sections [the urban dhimmi of China :P ] but the countryside will stick to Buddhist/Confucian/Taoist revival - since they have maintained greater contact with such thought there, and they also have a significant urban-rural hatred divide because of other reasons - primarily economic.

But more importantly for the subcontinent, what I wanted to emphasize was that all our obsessions appear to be based on an assumption of continued growth/rise in power/internal cohesion of the Chinese empire. But if there is slide in the other direction, it could lead to external aggression by CPC-PLA as a tactic of diversion and alternative national focus. Or our friends across the border could try to use such need for a diversion.
svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14222
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by svinayak »

brihaspati wrote:Here is one of the first signs of fractures in the CCP-PLA pillar of Chinese "communism", where the regime has to roll-back and intervene in structures it had rolled out itself. This internal conflict of interest is deep - when it reflects in a split within the "elite". There are other signs of it too, but here is one from the legal side - covering a wider social conflict of interest.
I still feel that the current PRC setup will fall apart within the next 20-25 years, and the irrevocable slide will start showing signs openly in the next 15 years. Any sense of things spiraling out of control can lead to adventurous policies by one or more rival factions within the CCP. Moreover such adventurous tendencies can be sought to be used by entities like the rump state of Pakistan.

At the moment I see people only gearing up for increasingly stable and strong PRC and its pseudo-communist regime. But it might also be worthwhile to think of an alternative future, where CCP-PLA axis feels itself on the brink and rival factions start positioning themselves for control after the "fall".
One of the Chinese from Hunan province in a discussion finally admitted that PRC may break into 4 in the future.
He is connected to the party officials and he said that things are changing. I asked him about Taiwan.
He says that with girls from mainland marrying into Taiwan they will take over Taiwan.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

More on the Neo-Maoist trends in CPC.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 03862.html
June 1, 2011.
Despite a huge police presence, protests continue in China's Inner Mongolia's provincial capital of Hohhot as ethnic Mongolians vent their anger with Party cadres over environmental problems and other issues. The unrest parallels similar incidents in Tibet in March 2008 and Xinjiang in July 2009, but the phenomenon is hardly limited to minority areas. A Tsinghua University sociologist estimated that across China there were 180,000 large-scale protests last year.

Violence is also on the rise. Last Thursday, a farmer in Jiangxi province detonated three bombs outside government buildings, killing himself and three others. Qian Mingqi left behind Internet postings saying he was angry his home had been illegally seized and demolished by the government—an all-too common complaint throughout China. He had been petitioning the government for redress since 2002.

It is no longer controversial in ruling circles to acknowledge that the Chinese Communist Party and "the masses" have drifted apart. But there is no clear consensus on what to do about it.
[...]
The current leadership is leaning heavily on two old standbys: crackdowns and propaganda. Both are favorites of the leftist wing of the Party, which explains why China is having a neo-Maoist moment.

The crackdown is effective, at least in the short term. China's security apparatus doesn't lack for resources, having grown to claim a larger share of the national budget than the military. The Party justifies this with the need to protect against "external hostile forces" that they blame for the unrest in Inner Mongolia and elsewhere. The anonymous Internet calls for a "Jasmine Revolution" have generated fears in Beijing that the people power movements in the Middle East will spark similar uprisings among discontented Chinese youth.

Meanwhile, Bo Xilai, the party secretary of Chong-qing, is poster boy for the new propaganda. Since he moved to the western industrial city, he has reinvented himself as a born-again Maoist. His back-to-basics campaign includes sending cadres and students to work in the fields and factories, promoting the public singing of revolutionary songs, and sending quotations from the late Great Helmsman to residents on their mobile phones.
[...]

The other danger is that leftist thinkers are genuinely trying to turn the Party back toward Marxist ideology. A Maoist website recently ran pictures of leading reform advocates with nooses around their necks. A forum in Shanxi last week called free-market economist Mao Yushi a "traitor" for criticizing Mao's legacy.

The writings of these true believers are alarming because they evidently have the ear and protection of some higher-ups. Wu Bangguo, the Party's No. 2 man, recently gave a speech in which he attacked private property. Earlier this month, leader-in-waiting Xi Jinping gave graduates of the Central Party School the same message, telling them to use the classics of Marxism-Leninism-Maoism to resolve current problems.
Islamist war-criminals most welcome too, and how the Horn is sought to be controlled.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asi ... =rss_world

By the way, Neo-Maoists of China are the ones who strongly demand a partition of India into many pieces.
Samudragupta
BRFite
Posts: 625
Joined: 12 Nov 2010 23:49
Location: Some place in the sphere

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Samudragupta »

Until a century and a half ago when Persia was confronted by Russia and the West, Persians accepted a “national identity” that consisted of the Arabic alphabet and Islam, a religion which was not born in Iran.The pre-Islamic culture and language included Hindu and Persian elements, while Islam had grown out of Hebrew-Arab culture, with some Turkish and Mogul elementsThis diverse blend ironically acquired relative concord and harmony. Iranians have become acquainted with modern culture and European modernity, thus facing escalated identity crises and turning “coexistence of paradoxical elements” into a major feature of Iranian heritage.

If they could overlook this identity crisis, Iranians can view their national and cultural identity as harmonious, uniform, and distinctive. However, the clash between this optimistic view of harmonious and distinctive identity and the objective reality (belonging to a culture that is in some ways discordant and contradictory) is internalized by Iranians. The collective memory of Iranians reflects their position as the proud yet defeated heir of one of the largest, most powerful empires and one of the brightest civilizations of the ancient world. This notion clashes with the reality of a country consisting of different ethnicities, cultures, and languages. In addition, the blend of Islam with national culture challenges the national and cultural identity of Iranians. Nationalistic, chauvinistic tendencies of many Persians are a manifestation of the conflicts outlined above.

The exaggerated emphasis on a distinct and superior Iranian identity is very much reflected in classic Persian literature – much more so than national identities in the writings of other ancient cultures. The terms “Iran” and “Iranian” and a distinctive, honorable identity are central concepts in the most important Persian epic, Ferdowsi’s Shahnameh. They are also central in other shahnamehs and works created in the first four centuries after Islam all the way to the poetry of the Constitutional Era (early 20th century). For over a thousand years, the heirs of one of the most powerful superpowers of the ancient world have attempted to make up for their identity crisis through literature. Their forefathers were defeated in all wars in the post-Islamic era (beginning in the seventh century) except for the last war in the recent decades. Their history was clouded by non-Persian rule through Arab, Mogul, and Turkish invasions.

The national, ethnic, and cultural identity of ancient peoples has numerous roots: language, history, mythology, rites and rituals, common traditions, common perceptions about the creation of the world and mankind, divinity, and sacred history of religions, ethnic groups, and nations, to name a few. The relative unity of these elements created a sense of belonging in the minds of the people of Iran. The sacred history of Islam, as well as most of its traditions and rituals was based on the Hebrew, Arab, and Old Testament culturesDespite the influence of neighboring traditions, the pre-Islamic Iranian culture and worldview, especially Mesopotamian cultures, were rooted in the Hindu-Iranian culture of the ancient Aryans. The Aryan and Sami religions, cultures, and mythologies came together in Iran.

The blend of Islam and the national culture is perhaps the most prominent feature of Iran’s identity after the advent of Islam. The non-Iranian nature of the Islamic culture and Iranian efforts to “Iranianize” a religion codified in Arabic and based on Hebrew-Arab myth and rituals, makes this combination particularly contradictory and challenging. Among the many nations conquered by Arab Muslims shortly after Islam’s inception, Persia was the only conquered nation in the Middle East, which, while accepting the new religion, maintained its national language, Farsi Dari, and major elements of its identity and cultural traditions. In their conversions to Islam, the people of Egypt, Syria, present-day Lebanon, and North Africa absorbed the Arab language and identity and became part of the Arab nation.

In addition to religion and national identity, some elements of the Mogul and Turkish cultures were also integrated into the Iranian culture and identity after they conquered Iran. Some historians believe that the spread of the Turkish language and legends throughout Iran is the result of the invading Turk and Mogul cultures. In the last century, Iranian culture has been influenced by modernity as well. In Western Europe, modernity gradually replaced the medieval culture in a bottom-up movement. However, modernity came to Iran from abroad. Some modern elements gradually seeped in and created a new blend that made the coexistence of previously incompatible elements possible.
When the Arabs defeated the Sassanid Empire, Islam in Iran assumed an Iranian form, due to the struggles that lasted more than four centuries. By internalizing many pre-Islamic Iranian concepts and rituals, several centuries later, Shiism became the religion of a majority of Iranians and a major pillar of Persian-Iranian identity.

The Sassanid Empire, Iran’s last pre-Islamic empire, collapsed during the rule of the Prophet’s second heir and caliph, Omar. Some Iranians took refuge in India, but the majority converted to the new religion yet many never forgave the collapse of their empire at the hands of the Arabs.The murder of the second caliph by an Iranian was the first political assassination in the history of Islam. Up to three centuries ago, ceremonies known as Omar Koshan (killing of Omar) were held in parts of Iran to celebrate the anniversary of the assassination of Iran’s conqueror.
The Prophet of Islam, his daughter and son-in-law Ali, and the 11 offspring of Ali, known as the Chahardah Massoum (14 Saints) became the most sacred religious personalities for the majority of Iranians. Iran’s collective national conscience, Persian literature, and Iranian culture, nevertheless, did not forget the painful occupation of the country and the transformation of a contemporary superpower into a nation-state in the Islamic establishment. The victory of Islam in Iran shattered the unity and harmony of the national identity which was defined by a sense of belonging to the Sassanid Empire, a common Persian culture, Zoroastrianism, as well as Iranian mythology and rituals. The defeated nation felt culturally superior to the conquerors and registered, in its national conscience, the invading Arabs as violent and lacking culture. As such, by disparaging the conquerors, the defeated nation attempted to heal its wounded pride. By preserving the Farsi Dari language and creating Shiism, it preserved important elements of its culture. By injecting the notion of “divinely supported inherited monarchy” and by creating a sacred history, the Iranians “blessed” the Shi’a Imams with having Iranian blood and origin. Based on a legend that lacks any historical credibility, they claimed that one of Ali’s sons, Imam Hussein, the third Shi’a Imam, married Sassanid Princess Narges (daughter of the last Sassanid king) and that the Shi’a Imams are the couple’s offspring. By granting Arab Imams Iranian blood, this legend symbolizes the blend of Shiism with the national identity.
In the Sassanid Empire, religion was a pillar of national identity. The Sassanid’s defeat stripped Iranian culture of the Zoroastrian religion. Nonetheless, many of its rituals, concepts, and beliefs persisted within the framework of Shiism.

Iranians used the solar calendar, while the Arabs used the lunar calendar. The 12 Iranian months have the names of the 12 Zoroastrian saints (Amshaspandan.) Iranians preserved their solar calendar and names of months, yet they changed the source of history from the coronation of the kings to the migration of the Prophet of Islam from Mecca to Medina. In the Iranian calendar, the Prophet of Islam was juxtaposed with the twelve Zoroastrian angels.

The Islamic Republic governments have had much conflict over Norouz, the most ancient and nationalistic holiday in the pre-Islamic era. Norouz marks the beginning of the Persian year and the beginning of spring. The Arab Omavi and Abbasi caliphs, as well as some religious groups, banned the Norouz celebrations. Some caliphs forced Iranians to pay annual taxes twice just for celebrating Norouz. Suppression and pressure, however, were fruitless. Norouz is still the most important holiday in Iranian culture, while other national festivities, such as Sadeh and Mehregan have gradually lost their importance. The Prophet of Islam officially recognized the pre-Islamic Arab festivities and, by sanctifying them, turned them into Islamic celebrations. But despite their religious sanctity, the Islamic celebrations did not merge with the Iranian culture.

The Arab caliphs and religious clergy were hostile towards Norouz celebrations because they reflected non-Islamic culture and the pre-Islamic Zoroastrian religion. Chaharshambeh Soori, the fire ceremony on the last Wednesday of the year, prior to Norouz, represents the sanctity of fire in Zoroastrianism. The most important Norouz tradition, the “Haft Seen,” is rooted in the Zoroastrian faith. To mark the New Year, each family lays a spread consisting of seven flowers, plants, spices, and items that start with the letter “s.” Terms such as “sabz” (green) and “sabzeh” (greenery) which symbolize nature in the Iranian culture, start with the letter “s.” The sanctity of “green,” “greenery,” and “greenness” in Norouz celebrations stems from spring and rebirth of nature. More importantly, they symbolize the Zoroastrian sanctity of trees and planting trees. On the 13th and last day of the Norouz celebrations, in a holiday called Seezdah-be-dar, Iranians leave their homes (and the bad luck associated with the 13th day of the year) and take refuge in nature. The sanctity of nature, the main element of the most important national celebration, is alien to Islamic culture.

Iran’s pre-Islamic national culture was enshrined not only in festivities but also in the most important Shi’a rites. The ten-day mourning ceremony for the third Shi’a Imam, who was killed in a war with the Omavi caliph, is the most important Shi’a religious ceremony. Public mourning, in the form of a parade of mourners, did not exist in the pre-Islamic Arab culture and the early Islamic traditions. These ceremonies were the Islamic construction of an important traditional rite of the pre-Islamic Iranians. Sou Va Shoon or mourning ceremonies for Siyavash were held to honor the murder of the Iranian prince Siyavash who, legend has it, symbolizes purity and innocence. Most symbols in the ten-day Moharram mourning ceremonies are based on Zoroastrian traditions, as well as Sou Va Shoon. The most prominent symbol in the parade of mourners is a cypress tree – the sacred tree in Zoroastrianism.

The return of the Twelfth Imam as the savior who will reappear to establish the reign of God and justice on earth, is the most prominent Shi’a belief. The Koran and Sunnah (words and deeds of the Prophet of Islam) make no reference to the “savior.”
The Iranians injected the concept of “savior” to Islam by reconstructing the legend of Sooshians, the Zoroastrian savior. The Zoroastrian clergy took on a more important role in the ruling system during the Sassanid dynasty in order to prevent other sects and religions from exerting influence on Iranian rulers, as they had in the past. Therefore, some argue that the concept of Velayat-e Faqih and the rule of the clergy can be linked to practices by Zoroastrian clergy and recreated to fit the needs of Shi’a clerics.

In this fashion, Iranians preserved their ancient history and legends after the conquest of Islam. Ferdowsi’s Shahnameh, which encompasses ancient pre-Islamic Iranian mythology and history, was the most popular and influential book in Iran for over a thousand years. Ordinary people heard Shahnameh stories nightly from story tellers. Iran’s national hero, Rostam, took shape in the pre-Islamic Hindu-Iranian mythology. In addition, prominent Iranian philosophers, such as Shahab-iddeen Sohrevardi and Mulla Sadra, based their philosophies on a blend of pre-Islamic philosophical schools and Islamic texts.

Over the past thousand years and before Iranians’ connections to the West, Persian-Iranian nationality and identity were defined in contrast with the Arab and Turk identities. Ferdowsi’s Shahnameh, which played a major role in reconstructing the national conscience and identity, defined Iran’s national identity. The first post-Islamic Iranian government took shape in the second and third centuries after hijrah (migration of Prophet from Mecca to Medina) in opposition with the Arab caliphs. The invasion of nomadic Turks and Moguls took the reins of power away from the Persians. But Turk and Mogul kings accepted the Iranian culture, and the country and government bureaucracy remained in the hands of Persians. Most historians regard the powerful Safavid Dynasty as the first national Iranian rulers after the advent of Islam. The Safavids, who fought the Ottoman caliphs, declared Shiism as the country’s official religion in hopes of benefiting from Iranian nationalism in their wars.

Iranian efforts at national reconstruction and establishment of a modern government began at the turn of the 20th century. Many Iranian thinkers, authors, and poets from the Constitutional to the Islamic Revolutions, attempted to define Iranian nationalism by idealizing pre-Islamic Iranian civilization and culture. The founder of the Pahlavi Dynasty declared nationalism the official ideology of the government and tried to strengthen national unity and define national identity by reviving Iran’s pre-Islamic Persian history and traditions. During the first Pahlavi era, studying Iranian history and pre-Islamic Iranian languages was encouraged. Persian nationalism and conflict with Arab culture were so extreme that important writers, such as the “father of Iranian fiction” Sadeq Hedayat, produced chauvinistic and racist works. Nonetheless, the movement for the nationalization of oil reached a peak in the post-WWII years with the collaboration of religious and nationalistic figures and ended in defeat when the two groups parted ways in the early 1950s. The first modern revolution of the Iranians in the 20th century, however, reflected a fusion of nationalism and religion and an alliance of nationalists and Shi’a clerics.

Notwithstanding political upheavals, and despite the influence of Western modernity in Iran, Islam, in its “Iranianized” Shi’a form, remained the most prominent religion among Iranians. Moreover, it became so inherent in the Iranian culture that the blend of Islam and national culture can be defined as the main feature of the Iranian identity. The escalating conflict between these two elements over the past three decades has coincided with increased conflict between modernity and tradition, resulting in a deepening identity crisis in Iranian culture.
http://www.gozaar.org/english/articles- ... itage.html
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Sorry to distract, but MMS ji's cannonshots about BD on the lines of "political scenario changing drastically" appears to be quite a bit of a shaker. BD reactions from the India-hater side ha sfound a focus. Even my projections has been consistently not to have a profound faith in AL to be forever in power, and I have tried to show that first past the post system produces apparent overwhelming majority in the parliament but the electoral percentages only differs by around 9-10%. This is the vote that swings govs there. My feelings are that AL stands on rather thin grounds.

Who advises our PM on press statements? It was so good that he kept shut for so long. Now with the joint border survey being turned into an emotive issue - all the Islamist-pseudo-nationalists have turned in - all it needed was a rallying cry of Islam+"nationalism" in danger from eternal enemy "Hindu"-India.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

X-posting :
I have always maintained that BD electorate should be seen as 50-50 split between pro-Islamist and therefore anti-India [whatever our dear Islamophiles want to beat their drums about, from the Islamist side - India is not under Islamist rule and Hindu majority - hence an enemy] , and the other 50 neutral as well as opportunist - so they will lean over to India if it helps their objectives.

BNP group and AL group more or less match in strength. So the assessment that roughly 1/3 goes to each side directly is approximately correct. However roughly 1/2 of the remaining 1/3 swings [I showed a rough 10-12% swing in the last few elections]. By the law of averages to calculate "expected/average" support, we have to assign half the 33%, approximately to each political grouping - and that leads to a roughly 50-50 split between the islamists and the neutral.

There is already strong moves by political forces to prevent even joint surveys along disputed borders from the BD side. They declare that no land will be ceded to India. In that sector Indian Islamophiles are pushing for a soft treatment which means one way net concession of land.

The exchange of land will not solve the real problem of silent conquest by infiltration and religious breeding. What was perhaps needed, but politically costly on both country - was exchange of population. If land has to be exchanged - then it must at least be based on equal land expanse base and not just on enclave count. On the Indian side, there is no strong Indian political opposition against concessions. This would be crucial.

The reason that India cannot do anything here even after understanding what Islam really is targeting on the subcontinent - is because of the wonderful logic pushed by the Nehruvian apologists - that it was soooo important to score an ideological point by trying to show that Indin mix of specially protected and encouraged significant minority of Muslims to flourish beside non-Muslims, disproves Paki founders claims.

I have always maintained that this splitting of populations or the ulema into two apparently distinct factions/viewpoints is a very old and recognized tactic in Islam. What the Islamist population and ulema in India served as was a hedge base to keep a foothold within India for future political growth, in case the Pak experiment failed.

The effectiveness of this political ploy is obvious now that the mere presence and flourishing of this Islamist base in India has essentially kept the rashtra in ransom, with all its major political groupings gradually surrendering to Islamist demands both from within as well as from across the borders. The very insistence on tolerance of diversity and extension of democratic rights has bound Indian state within a paralysis - so that India fears to take action or stance across the borders because it is mortally afraid of political backlash from the Islamist inside.

x-added:

What needs to be explored is the role of the extremist faction of the AASU strands over the foreseeable development of the border situation with respect to BD and Islamist expansion. ULFA leadership was protected and resourced by political and criminal networks when the BNP-Jamaat was in power. The rashtryia establishment of BD therefore could have developed connections that will hold good beyond shows of surrender/falling in line with the Congress/apparent cooperation between AL and GOI. Will the BD networks sustain a renewed separatist move from Assam - this time with tacit acceptance of support of the Islamist populations now expanding across Assam? Congress will protect the Islamists - and hence - all the three forces' interests will coincide. The key will be a toning down of rhetoric against the "Bangali" but a sharpening of rhetoric against the "Indian". This will prove that the understanding and acceptance of the Islamic has been really completed.
Samudragupta
BRFite
Posts: 625
Joined: 12 Nov 2010 23:49
Location: Some place in the sphere

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Samudragupta »

The histories of Bangladesh and India have some fundamental differences. After independence India opted for a national protectionist policy for local and heavy industries. Its priority was to build up national industrial capabilities and public sector institutions. Up to the 1990s that policy not only helped the Indian bourgeoisie grow but also founded a very strong industrial base. By the time India decided to adopt the neoliberal path, the country had its own big group of companies. So, when it opened up, India's big entrepreneurs became the biggest beneficiaries and all foreign investments had to come in as joint collaborations, they had to compromise with big Indian corporate groups, and Indian groups also started investing in other places.

But in case of Pakistan, the rulers had no national perspective from the very beginning. They assumed the place of a client state of the US. The US has successfully used Pakistan as an instrument to materialise their regional strategy to expand their hegemony. Pakistan was always dependent on the US advisers. Thus, Pakistan grew with an over-developed military-civilian bureaucracy, dependants on the WB and the US State Department.

Bangladesh, within a few years of its independence from Pakistan, replicated the same system. Soon Bangladesh was trapped in the WB-US hegemonic model, where economic reforms took place not to develop its potential but to create a vicious cycle of dependence. Wholesale privatisation and the opening up of the Bangladeshi economy to multinational capital and creating a group of lumpen rich became the main agenda of economic reforms. I discussed earlier its nature and consequences.
The question of India is very important for us. Without locating India and the role of Indian corporate big capital we cannot get rid of overall hegemony of global capitalism. India has the highest number of rich people but contradictorily India also has the highest number of poor people. The current Indian state is not representing Indian people but is representing Indian big capital. India for South Asia is the same as what the US is for the world. It is hegemonic, oppressive and undemocratic.

The present India should be characterised with the rise of big capital, unprecedented accumulation of wealth and power in few hands, and its linkages with global monopoly capital. This India can be termed as sub-imperialist within the global capitalist system, and within South Asia it is imperialist. This India has recently increased its military expenditure to a record high level, also building military alliances with the US. They are both now trying to take control of the Bay of Bengal. With the increasing interests of India, China and the US in Bay of Bengal, the possibility for creation of new alliances or conflicts is rather high. Either way, Bangladesh is going to suffer.

Now global corporate bodies including the ADB, the WB or MNCs consider India a regional centre. Therefore, their projects are selected in line with the interests and long-term program of Indian big capital. For example, the coal that the British company, Asia Energy, wanted to extract, when it attempted to start open-pit mining in Phulbari, was supposed to be exported to India. When the US oil multinational UNOCAL was trying to export gas, the destination was once again India. Now a number of projects have been conceived to build new coal-based power plants in Khulna and Chittagong. It is apparently a joint project, but the result will be different for the two countries. Bangladesh will have the carbon emissions and dispossession of farmers that will create social tension and human tragedy, but Indian companies will earn huge profits.

Indian big business has access to huge potential market in Bangladesh, especially after the SAP. India's presence is very high in every sector in Bangladesh. It is trying to monopolise each of those sectors, utilising aid or credit, very well-known instruments of imperialist control and influence. Recently, India granted $1 billion loan to Bangladesh for building its own transit facilities. This transit is going to change everything in South Asia. Bangladesh is entering into the ambit of India's military, political and economic domination on a scale not seen before.

I don't know, how far the military aspect of the domination will go, but economically India is going to have a commanding authority over Bangladesh. India is claiming that Bangladesh is the land of "terrorists" and they have erected fences around border. How can they feel comfortable in taking their goods through Bangladesh? Yes, it will be used as an excuse. So, they will demand more regional security coordination under India's control. The security system of Bangladesh will be subordinated to India's status and interests.

Indian sub-imperialism behaves similarly in Nepal, Sri Lanka and other smaller countries in the region. In this context, the people's movements of India, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other neighbouring countries should have a very high level of cooperation and coordination to strengthen united struggles for building a free, democratic and different South Asia not polluted by Indian or big capital's hegemony.
Considering the importance of "Jamaat" in the Islamic systems...and specially in Bangladesh how the neo "people's movement" is going to move ahead....are we going to see confluence of interests between the neo Maoists and the Islamists in the subcontinent?

http://links.org.au/node/2075

Interestingly the website is an Australian one...
Samudragupta
BRFite
Posts: 625
Joined: 12 Nov 2010 23:49
Location: Some place in the sphere

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Samudragupta »

Analysis of Subcontinent Economics....

http://research.bnpparibas.com/applis/w ... penElement
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Samudragupta ji,
the Australian link is part of a network of broadly moderately "extreme" to "extremely" extreme Marxists. The other major bundles are in Canada, UK, and some Scandinavian countries. Two distinct groups vie for attention here - one is derived from the fourth internationalist Trotskyte factions [these have a presecen also on the Indian scene], and second from the more numerous Maoist position.

Interestingly they remain silent about similar "hegemonic" perspectives on China. It is a similar mindset that ignored the realities of Soviet rule in the name of saving the "socialist" motherland.

The sympathy on BD angle is a result of expat BD communists, primarily, in contact with indigenous "Maoist" groups. The BD communists are some of the most implacable India-haters, and they use the ultra-nationalist position to stake a claim on the national political spectrum. The focus of this ultra-nationalism is however alsmost exclusively focused on India - and nothing at all against China - because of ideological affiliations and slavish mentality found in most subcontinental p-secs. But another factor is the calculation that such a specific India-bashing position will find a chord in the Islamist section of BD.

It is the same calculation that rules in India too. We have consistent attempts to bring together the Maoists, Islamists and so-called "Dalit-activists" together. These are the forces for whom the common major obstacle is actually the "Hindu" culture, and basis of the nation. Of course behind it all, the countries I mentioned will have western, and possibly "Christian" sourced angst against the same in India - and therefore common cause through fronts of "Lefts".

Almost surely any Maoist/extremist communist org/person/group in the west, is likely to be a cover [or penetrated by] for the intelligence agancies. They can act as a two way screen. To keep a finger on the pulse of such romantics coming from within their own societies, as well as interfacing with similarly inclined immigrants who could be used for manipulations/collaborations back in the home country of the immigrant.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RajeshA »

X-Posting from Bangladesh News and Discussion

Dealing with Illegal Immigration

1) If the East Germans were able to control their population from just running over to West Germany, then Indians too can build a fence, a wall, a barrier, which does not allow any Bangladeshi to come into India illegally. This is a priority. Let's remember that the Chinese built the Great Wall to keep undesired elements out.

Let's invest as much as it takes to build the best wall possible with the best technology and experience from all over the world has to offer.

2) Secondly we should declare all Bengali speaking residents of India, who are Muslims, as potential Bangladeshi illegal migrants to India, unless they can prove that in the 50s, their ancestors were living in India, and they were born in Indian territory or to Indian parents outside the Subcontinent.

3) Thirdly we should have a nation-wide policy of taking Bangladeshis illegally in India into custody, and deporting them to Bangladesh. Now this deportation would not work, because Bangladesh will not cooperate. The best thing to do is to put them on ships, and to dump them on boats just outside the international waters off Bangladesh. In fact, we can pay Bangladeshi fishermen, or those who have boats to come just outside Bangladeshi waters into international waters, and collect their compatriots from there. If the deportees do not behave they should be sedated and then transported. Those who cooperate, they would be paid, a Image 1000 by an agent in Bangladesh.

4) Only those Bangladeshi illegal migrants who are Hindus or Buddhists would be allowed to stay in India. For this they need a certificate from a registered (for the purpose) temple every 6 months for the next 10 years for themselves and their dependents in India. Secondly they need to register with the Indian authorities, that they are Bangladeshi "Hindus/Buddhists" already in India and have a certificate from a Hindu temple. Any Bangladeshi illegal migrant, suspected to be a Muslim, who has not registered himself with the authorities and the "temple order", when apprehended would be sent back.

5) India has to recognize that neither Pakistan nor Bangladesh are going to provide Hindus and Buddhists with sufficient free space to prosper in their societies. There will always be pressure to proselytize them. Hindus and Buddhists are simply not safe in Bangladesh. India needs to provide the facility of asylum to them. They should be allowed to apply for that in Bangladesh itself in some Indian consulates. Some credible mechanism has to be established on how to ascertain that they are Hindus or Buddhists. It can be
  1. their various documents
  2. pants-down method
  3. certificate from some temple order
  4. interrogation by some Hindu theologists at the Indian consulates, who know of the traditions of Hindus in Bengal.
With that they would be given a stay permit.


*************

Now some would wonder, how come I am now speaking in favor of such a policy, when I was earlier on talking of merging India with Bangladesh.

That was the case, if Bangladeshis were willing to take the emotional step of national union with India, the whole nation of Bangladesh was willing to submerge into India, and make India's national interests as its own. Since Bangladeshis however do not feel Indian, do not want to feel Indian, then India need not give space to any Bangladeshis in India either.


*************

This is the way to force those Bangladeshis illegally in India to either convert to Dharmic religion or return to Bangladesh. Carrots and Sticks. Make Conversion their easy way out, and many would convert.

The fact that the Hindus in Bangladesh are discriminated is a good excuse to introduce a formal asylum mechanism. Coupled with the threat of forced repatriations, it would encourage many Bangladeshis to simply convert and be allowed to stay in India. In the end, only those would be deported, who do not wish to convert and hence are hard-core Muslims, and hence potentially a danger to India anyway.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RajeshA »

Dealing with Illegal Immigration

The question arises, whether India can pull this thing off in a non-communal way, where we do not discriminate. I claim we can.

1) The discrimination to Hindus (and Buddhists) in Bangladesh and attacks on them are coming from the Bangladeshi society, and the state is not really doing much against it. So Bangladesh is the initiator of the discrimination and oppression, not India.

2) Since the rights of Muslims would be well-looked after in Bangladesh, India is offering asylum facility only to Hindus and Buddhists. Christian states in the world can take care of Christians in the world, if Christians too feel discriminated.

3) Now India offering Pakistani and Bangladeshi Hindus and Buddhists the asylum facility, cannot be considered against our secular polity.

4) Illegal Immigration can also not be tolerated. So if India tries to send back Bangladeshi illegal migrants back to Bangladesh, it too is not something against Muslims or against India's secular polity. It is against citizens of another country who have illegally migrated to India.

5) If India requires Bengali Muslims to produce evidence of their prior residence in India (in the 1950s), then it is only to better differentiate between West Bengali Muslims and Bangladeshi Muslims living in India. It is an administrative necessity.

6) So all in all India would be able to effect a conversion of most of illegal Bangladeshis in India, if India follows these two policies - (a) Asylum for Bangladeshi Hindu/Buddhist minorities; (b) Credible Threat to push back all illegal Bangladeshi migrants from India. If we squeeze the balloon in one place (deportation), the air is bound to move to another place (conversion).
Samudragupta
BRFite
Posts: 625
Joined: 12 Nov 2010 23:49
Location: Some place in the sphere

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Samudragupta »

RajeshA ji,
Keeping them in designated camps may be the easier solution.....and regarding asylum question...if the state of india decides that dharmic ideas are not safe in those territories and takes a strategic decision then probably arming them will be good option and let the Alawite/Syrian model be implemented in Bengal delta...

One point of difference between Pakjab and Bengal delta is the importance of Jamaat in the second case...both Kabilla and Jamaat is important to both the areas but in the second case Jammat 's stature is same as the Kabilla while in the first case Kabialla holds supreme...so while in the first case people's voice is stymed and not allowed to guide the state...in the second case people hold some importance to the policy of the state....
Under this context we have to think whether the Alawite/Syrian model can actually hold?
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RajeshA »

Dealing with Illegal Immigration
Samudragupta wrote:RajeshA ji,
Keeping them in designated camps may be the easier solution.....and regarding asylum question...if the state of india decides that dharmic ideas are not safe in those territories and takes a strategic decision then probably arming them will be good option and let the Alawite/Syrian model be implemented in Bengal delta...
Samudragupta ji,

Pakistan points to us the way! The minorities at the mercy of Islamist networks cannot resist for long. At some point or another in frustration, the Dharmic in Bangladesh too would give in and convert.

There is absolutely no chance of Dharmics there being able to impose some "Alawite" model in Bangladesh. Even the Alawites are Muslims, so it is still Muslims lording over Muslims.

We will only be sacrificing these Dharmic souls to Islamic pressure, without any strategic benefits. Let the minorities in Bangladesh move out, then the Bangladeshis too can start going at each other, as it happened in Pakistan.

However the proposed "Indian Asylum Policy for Bangladeshi Minorities" is primarily a means of giving an incentive to the Bangladeshis already in India to convert, the incentive being the permission to stay in India and prosper.

Even if we start deporting them, it is going to be an administrative and security nightmare to push 15-20 million Bangladeshis back into Bangladesh. Instead we show a credible threat of pushing Bangladeshis back into Bangladesh, and the others would get scared and convert. If we are able to push a couple of hundred thousand Bangladeshis back with sufficient media coverage, the others would seriously start thinking of ways of how to stay. It is here that the Asylum Policy would provide an escape.

Without the Asylum Policy, the only escape route would be for the Bangladeshis to create a security danger for India or to influence politics in India to such an extent that we relent. After a couple of thousand deportations, India would again give up. We have to control the response of those Bangladeshis who do not wish to return. Offering them an option of asylum if converted could provide them with what they need, and they will not be forced to do desperate things injurious to India's health or to our Deportation Policy, though conversion too can be considered desperate.

All this only needs a spark, the conversions would take an exponential speed.

Bangladesh is probably lost to us for the time being. The only thing we can do is to take over Rakhine State from Myanmar somehow and to encircle Bangladesh completely, so that it does not fall to Chinese manipulations.
Post Reply