Devise military solutions to the Somali piracy irritant

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Jun 2011 18:02

OK folks here is a part fun, part learning and part serious thread.

I have put it in this forum rather than the military forum because it strikes me that any discussion may revolve around geopolitical factors and not just the military planning. The idea is to come up with military solutions for the Somalia problem. I have some views and opinions that I have already made when I thought of this thread and I won't be a kabab mein haddi (vegetarian onlee) by stating my views. What I will do is to first post an image of the area that includes the Indian coast and Somalia, with a key that represents a 1000 km long line to give an idea of distances. I will make two more posts with links of relevant information about Somalia and its pots that I found useful. I have marked those ports on the map.

Somalia is 3/4 the size of Terroristan and seems to share the same values, or at least seems to value the same type of behavior even if Somalian values are likely superior to Pakistani values. Somalia has a population of about 10 million and a 3000 plus km coastline.

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a11/cy ... omalia.jpg

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Jun 2011 18:04

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... 1?page=0,1

Relatively speaking, the first months of 2011 have been full of good news for Somalia, the world's

closest approximation of anarchy. For two full decades, the majority of the territory in this

crescent-shaped country on the Horn of Africa has gone essentially ungoverned; an internationally

recognized transitional government is fighting tooth and nail to control the capital. Yet after months

of stalemate with Islamist insurgents, the momentum finally seems to be turning. Block by block, the

national troops -- with the considerable help of an African Union-U.N. joint peacekeeping mission --

have made significant territorial gains in Mogadishu.

Yet Somalia is still in tatters. Out of a population of nearly 10 million, as many as 3 million are

thought to need humanitarian assistance. Another 2 million have been uprooted in the conflict, and

political infighting has paralyzed the nascent government. Neighboring Uganda has warned that the

fractures stand to make matters worse, offering Islamist insurgent groups a chance to reorganize.

Perhaps the greatest fear looming over Somalia today is that it will become the next haven for al Qaeda

fleeing Afghanistan. Somalia's Islamist rebels, who call themselves al-Shabab, have already pledged

their allegiance to the global terrorist network.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... ly_control

The country's internationally supported government wouldn't last through the night were it not for a

7,000-strong African Union peacekeeping force that protects them, and civilian toll of the last two

decades of conflict been catastrophic -- a quarter of the population has been uprooted by violence. In

recent months, the story has gotten even worse thanks to two main Islamist militia groups, al-Shabab and

Hizbul al-Islam, which control much of the country. Al Shabab professes allegiance to al Qaeda and

should not be taken lightly: The group claimed responsibility for bombing two Ugandan restaurants packed

with spectators watching the World Cup this summer.

The two main insurgent groups are intent on taking the capital (and as a second priority, each other). A

Ramadan offensive by al-Shabab left 31 members of parliament dead. Then, on Sept. 20, a suicide bomber

tried to attack the presidential palace, though he killed only himself. Three days later, street battles

in the city's south (it's unclear where, exactly) left two dozen dead as insurgents attempted to gain

control of strategic roads. No wonder every article about Somalia these days likes to trumpet the

supposed fact that government forces control no more than a few blocks of the capital city.

In fact, the government controls a bit more than a few blocks -- 37.5 percent of Mogadishu, according to

the United Nations. That's six city districts, or approximately 8 square miles (for comparison,

Washington, D.C., is 61.4 square miles). Insurgents control another 31.25 percent, or five districts,

and a final 31.25 percent of Mogadishu is considered "disputed" territory.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Jun 2011 18:06

Somali ports
http://www.logcluster.org/ops/som/marit ... mali-ports

Mogadishu,Kismayo Port, Merka, El Ma'an, berbera, Bossaso

Port operations

There are four major ports in Somalia which used to fall under Somali Ports Authority: Mogadishu,

Berbera, Kismayo and Bossaso. The first three are deepwater ports, the latter is the fastest growing

port in Somalia. All of these ports now fall under independent port authorities set up by local clans,

as do the smaller ports such as El Ma'an and Merka. Due to civil instability and inter-clan fighting

Mogadishu is not operational and Kismayo is closed to UN vessels although still used by commercial

operators. Pirating of vessels is common in these waters; reckoned to be the most dangerous waters in

the world and few foreign registered ships are willing to dock.

Since May 2005 a total of 27 ships have been hijacked and thereafter being used for hijacking additional

ships within Somali territorial waters. The US has banned all dockage of UN and humanitarian vessels to

Somalia.

Mogadishu Port

Located along the Indian Ocean on the South coast of Somalia, Benadir Region. Mogadishu port was the

most active port that served civilian, humanitarian and military purposes in Somalia. Presently there is

inter-clan militias fighting over the control of the port and therefore for security reasons closed to

humanitarian aid operations. Cargo destined for South and Central Somalia is often routed through the

ports of Merka (100km south of Mogadishu) and El Ma'an (30km north of Mogadishu).

Kismayo Port

Located along the Indian Ocean on the south coast of Somalia - Lower Juba region - it was one of the

four major ports of Somalia playing a major role in the development of southern Somalia. During the

UNOSOM time, the Kismayo port was mainly consigned to military operations. Presently, Kismayu is one of

the export points of charcoal and to a lesser extent one of the import points of vehicles from the Gulf.

The port can accommodate vessels up to 180 metres in length with a maximum draft of about 8 metres. It

has 2 berths measuring 340 metres and 280 metres respectively and 2 roll on roll off (ro-ro) ramps. Due

to security reasons and considerations, the port of Kismayo is closed to humanitarian aid operations.

Cargo for Southern Somalia is often routed through the ports of Merka and El Ma'an

Merka

Located along the Indian Ocean on the south coast of Somalia - Lower Shabelle region - about 100kms

south of Mogadishu. Clans who have vested interests in keeping the port of Mogadishu closed control the

Port. The Port has no infrastructure or facilities so vessels therefore discharge from their anchorage

offshore and cargo is either picked up by barges or smaller vessels for beaching.

From the beach, cargo is picked up by trucks and delivered by road.

El Ma'an

Located along the Indian Ocean on the south coast of Somalia - Middle Shabelle region - 45km north of

Mogadishu. A naturally protected port, which is currently run by Benadir Maritime and local port

operations as a consortium.

Most shipments are made to Mombasa and thereafter trans-shipped and sent to El Ma'an.

Berbera (Somaliland)

Located on the south coast of the Gulf of Aden along the NW Somali coast - Somaliland/ Galbeed (Saheel)

region - about 250 kms east of Djibouti.

The port was built in a natural bay formed by a low-lying sand bar with the entrance to the west. The

port was developed by Russian and American aid, and the berths are distinguished between Russian and

American wharves. Each one is approximately 325 metres although the Russian portion was built 30 years

prior to the American, which was built in 1986.

It is presently the largest operating port of Somalia.

The year round port of Berbera is the primary source of revenue for the administration of Somaliland and

the largest employer generating direct and indirect employment opportunities (410 permanent employees,

about the same number of contractual workers and approximately 900 stevedores and casual workers).

Revenue from Customs duties and tariffs from the port consist a major component of the budgetary income

of the local administration.

Livestock is the main export cargo. About 60% of the population' livelihood depends either directly or

indirectly on the livestock and its products. Imports through the port of Berbera are destined for

Somaliland, Ethiopia, North Eastern Somalia and parts of Southern Somalia.

Bossaso (Puntland)

Located on the south coast of the Gulf of Aden along the NE Somali coast - Puntland. Bossaso is a

relatively new port.

Most of vessel traffic and sea trade through Bossaso port is carried by dhows, in 2004 a total of 613

dhows (about 82% of total) and small size coastal ships, 2004 a total of 75 ships (about 18%) for

general cargo and 1,249,062 head of livestock and 4,326 tonnes of skins/hides/shark fins, incense and

other cargo. Bossaso port is the entry point for humanitarian aid and commercial cargo for Puntland

region and of the total of 688 vessels in 2004 with general cargo constituting sugar 69,577 tonnes, rice

57,635 tonnes, flour 48,529 tonnes, cement 51,690, construction material 41,204, diesel 36,195 tonnes

(not bulk) and other 63,397 tonnes. The call of ships has increased by 12% in 2005, which may be largely

due to the fact that the President by Presidential decree on March 9th 2005 abolished all tariffs to the

port in order to encourage its usage.

The port of Bossaso is the most important source of economic and social development for the

administration of Puntland, which can be seen, by the rapid development of Bossaso town and its

environs.

The port is a major contributor to the economy of the Bari region and Puntlands stability on the whole.

Livestock is one of the main exports with the main destinations being in the Gulf region. Import cargo,

such as cement, sugar, rice and construction materials has increased year by year.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 21 Jun 2011 19:30

Shiv ji, Unfortunately can't think anything beyond old fashioned solution that is bomb them. Hit them hard till it hurts.
Yes some innocents folks will be killed but then that is the price one pays for being in the wrong neighborhood. Obviously it goes without saying that this has to be an International effort. Enough of this piracy nonsense.
Destroy every ship, every dinghy, every catamaran which ships out of Somalian coast for next 3-4 months.

sanjeevpunj · Post by **sanjeevpunj** » 21 Jun 2011 19:54

The U.S. Navy has started a force to battle pirates attacking ships in and near the Gulf of Aden off Somalia's coast.
The unit -- called Combined Task Force 151 -- is a spinoff of an existing force in the region that addressed a range of security issues, such as drug smuggling and weapons trafficking, as well as piracy.
The Gulf of Aden links the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. About 20,000 oil tankers, freighters and merchant vessels pass along the crucial shipping route each year near largely lawless Somalia.
The United States is among at least 20 countries that are trying to combat piracy in the region, including Russia, India, Germany and Iran. In December, German sailors foiled an attempt by pirates to hijack an Egyptian cargo ship off the coast of Yemen, according to the German Defense Ministry, and the European Union launched its first naval operation to protect vessels. That came just days after China revealed its own plans to patrol the Horn of Africa's volatile coastline.
Task Force 151 will be devoted solely to counterpiracy efforts, said Lt. Stephanie Murdock, a Fifth Fleet spokeswoman. The United States anticipates other nations joining the force "in the near future."

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Jun 2011 20:12

Shiv here is a map from the IN Anti Piracy thread in mil forum:

A map to provide context:

Acharya wrote:

I would want IAF refuelling facilities in Oman too.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Jun 2011 20:13

VikasRaina wrote:Shiv ji, Unfortunately can't think anything beyond old fashioned solution that is bomb them. Hit them hard till it hurts.
Yes some innocents folks will be killed but then that is the price one pays for being in the wrong neighborhood. Obviously it goes without saying that this has to be an International effort. Enough of this piracy nonsense.
Destroy every ship, every dinghy, every catamaran which ships out of Somalian coast for next 3-4 months.

In fact this is precisely why I started this thread. I agree 400% with the sentiment - but on looking at the map and the distances and the scale and the fact that the pirates are not one united entity under a united central leadership - the military solution appears to be a mind bogglingly difficult task.

Northern Somalia is fine because it is in the busiest waters and the most policed waters of the world. Every country will have naval forces there. It is the southern part near Mogadishu - and areas that are 3500 km from mainland India and even 2500-3000 km from the Lakshdweep Islands that are the source of the problem.

That is not to say that no military solution is useful. I am certain there must be some military hits that we can make to badly shake up and scare the shit out of the pirates. But what? And how?

PS - ramana's map shows that the Northern waters have had the most concentrated attacks. That is something that I was unaware of - thanks. Maybe I to do some rethinking.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 21 Jun 2011 20:17

deeper issues

1. who are the financiers and backers of pirate operations?
2. who are their customers? who launders their money?
3. who provides them with intel, weapons, etc.?
4. political and or religious/ideological drivers? (al qaeda, ISI, etc...)
5. connection with SE Asian pirates? is there a religious link?
6. what is the PLA/PLAN/CCP angle? lots of ships seem to end up in China
7. join the dots and which organisations profit the most from continuing piracy?
8. Who is most likely to be the facilitator for this 'industry'?

already fingers have been pointed at middle eastern and other intermediaries... but something tells me that the real stinky fish might be in karachi and isloo

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Jun 2011 20:20

The Somali Pirates are like the Taliban based in TSP. They are non-state actors based in Somalia a failed state which gives them shelter. Their presence attracts Western navies to the Arabian Gulf an Western Indian Ocean. One odd thing is that the ransom business is well organized. It looks like there are agents/commission agents in ports that transport goods to the area and they tip off the pirates who seize/hijack the unwary victim.
Look at all the dots where the piracy occured. Its in the Gulf of Aden and area round Seychelles. I would base a few maritime patrol aircraft in Seychelles and appoint the Indian Ambassador as the Anti Piracy Task force coordinator. The task force leader should be IN officer.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 21 Jun 2011 21:23

The entire racket is massive. You have agents in port cities from Amsterdam, Dubai/Abu Dhabi and even London etc who do negotiations on behalf of pirates. The pirates pay off local militia's, tribal leaders. Several Kenyans also finance the operations. Mombasa is a major hub to exchange dollars into local currency - there are several kids on the streets selling dollars in return for local money. You have ship owners who conduct scams with their insurance companies who are an additional source of financing.

Lately, many companies are deploying former SAS types on the ship - charge $100k/200k.

UAE is financing a militia in Somalia to take on the pirates from the land - Blackwater owner is running this operation from Abu Dhabi. They are using Somaliland as a base for their operations.

Seychelles, Mauritius asking us for aircraft, boats etc to defend their EEZ - we haven't got the capacity - too much local demand. But we are doing what we can.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 21 Jun 2011 21:41

Only 10 million people in a large land area. We should bring it in as a joint Indo-african protectorate (possibly partnering with South Africa) and restore order. We have the capability, the will has to be there to solve the supply line problem.

If we don't do it Pakis will take it over as strategic depth + lebensraum.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 21 Jun 2011 21:55

My two cents:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_merchantman

Armed merchant cruisers

The Armed Merchant Cruisers (AMC) of the British Royal Navy were employed for convoy protection against enemy warships. They had limited value because they lacked warship armour and used local control of guns rather than director fire-control systems. Many were later converted into troopships.

One famous AMC of World War I was the British RMS Carmania which, after a heated battle that caused heavy damage on both sides, succeeded in sinking the German auxiliary cruiser SMS Cap Trafalgar near the Brazilian island of Trinidade in 1914.[2] By coincidence, HMS Carmania was disguised as SMS Cap Trafalgar while Cap Trafalgar was disguised as Carmania.[citation needed]

In World War II, HMS Jervis Bay—the sole escort for convoy HX 84—stood off the pocket battleship Admiral Scheer, when the German ship attacked the convoy. Though she was sunk, this enabled the convoy to escape. Her master, Acting Captain Edward Fegen was awarded the Victoria Cross (posthumous) for his actions. Another famous action involving an armed merchant cruiser was the battle between HMS Rawalpindi and the German battleships Scharnhorst and Gneisenau. Fighting against hopeless odds, the Rawalpindi was quickly sunk.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 21 Jun 2011 23:00

Another option and completely out of the box...
Since Somalia is a sort of African FATA. Why not to start settling Indians in coastal cities of Somalia under whatever garb we want to. We anyways need land and Somalia has too much of it. Being in direct line of Kochi port, we can make sure that initial settlers are not short of neccessaties of life as Somalia is sort of barren land when comes to agriculture as of now. This is a long term solution to some of our problems.
India should be the mother ship settling Indians across the globe like UK did in 18th and 19th century.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 21 Jun 2011 23:24

shiv saar, KLNMurthy ji, VikasRaina ji,

just sent you a little something by email, I wrote on the issue of Somalia.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Jun 2011 23:25

Vikas read the Africa thread. That is one of the plans underway.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Jun 2011 23:34

Indian take over of Somalia will be the first sign of Pax Indicana. It provide us good solid base to keep eye on the source of many anti indian elements. Let Kesri unfurl on this suffering land of Somalia. If we are not ready yet then its imperative this land keep burning till we make our full fledged preparations.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Jun 2011 06:23

shyamd wrote: Seychelles, Mauritius asking us for aircraft, boats etc to defend their EEZ - we haven't got the capacity - too much local demand. But we are doing what we can.

"We are doing what we can" seems to be a very honest assessment of reality that in general fits in with what I believe. India does not yet have the power projection capability to make impact on the Somali mainland, although we have moved from "brown water navy" to a blue water one that can make a difference in the waters off Somalia.

Oh I am sure we can do more - but it will either be at the expense of something else or action that cannot be sustained indefinitely. IMO if we are to do something we should be able to sustain the action indefinitely - like USA in Vietnam, Iraq or Af Pak.

At the very least we should invade and take over the southern port of Kismayo and set up a military base there with several thousand personnel. The Navy should have the spare air power capability to have a carrier within 500 to 1000 km to be able to provide air support. If we have to maintain a carrier group in the east and west, we will need a third "spare" carrier group for actions such as these, along with support ships.

JMT

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Jun 2011 07:20

RajeshA wrote:shiv saar, KLNMurthy ji, VikasRaina ji,

just sent you a little something by email, I wrote on the issue of Somalia.

I think the entire contents of your little something should be posted on here, modified to leave out controversial bits if need be. It is an utter waste on email.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jun 2011 09:06

japan is setting up a permanent base in djibouti for P3C planes, ships and marine commandoes
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ ... 731a7.html
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Securi ... 273596816/

all the coalition powers can probably shorten their logistical tail and share the workload better by setting up a coastal firebase cum port on the shore of Somalia itself ... a secure camp with shared airbase and port from where coast guard vessels can police up and down the coast. catching the pirates in inshore waters and bottling them up will reduce the number of attacks in deeper water that need proper navy ships (costly) to go out and patrol.

Usa has 7000 drones in the inventory. perhaps it can run a af-pak type operation from socotra or djibouti and unleash hellfire missile on armed skiffs seen 100s of kms offshore - no fisherman would out so far on legitimate business in small boats.

the country is lawless and poor, so its all about risk:reward , when the risks outweigh the potential reward the pirate lords will find other business like smuggling, drugs, robbery on land.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Jun 2011 09:12

Some thoughts:
1) One way to build up information about individual warlords and the local connections with names of people and places is to keep and interrogate pirates. That would, of course be in addition to any information sharing that intel agencies do. Naturally all info won't be shared - so better to have our own separate database
2) We would need speakers of the Somali language - of which I doubt if we have even one in the government
3) We should be ready to host these Somali prisoners in camps long term to serve wherever needs - from acting as double agents to exchange of hostages.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 22 Jun 2011 11:04

Indian peace keeping forces were there few years ago when Aiddidi was running amock. Few Somailan warlords were offering their wimmen for IA soldiers to marry and settle down as they were impressed with humanitarian, development work done by Yindians. Do they have any natural resources beside Khaaat to be exploited ?

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Jun 2011 12:06

the only thing that will eradicate piracy is providing the pirates a viable economic alternative - which will not come without a proper political solution to the somalian situation

in the meantime, go after the money trail, shut down the agents and intermediaries, freeze the bank accounts. and destroy any pirate ships caught on the high seas

occupying land and setting up military bases on our own is not viable from a political perspective

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Jun 2011 12:20

Why is it considered in India's interest to finish off Somali piracy? We should always ask, what would Chancellor Palpatine do?

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 22 Jun 2011 13:11

Notice how Ethiopia actually juts into the Somalian territory. I believe that strengthening Ethiopia's army and amphibian capabilities should be the next step from desh's side. Abyssinia's military, once sufficiently endowed with teeth can cut Somalia in two ala Cold Start.

Somaliland's piracy problem can be traced back to Abyssinian Empire break-up and partition by European colonialists. It is in India's interest to restore Abyssinia to its former state.

The recent India-Ethiopia camaraderie is an auspicious start on all counts.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Jun 2011 13:48

Somalia can be an extremely brutal country, as Bush Sr. found out in Dec 1992. It is also home of the Al-Shabaab, an offshoot of the Islamic Courts Union, and a sort of Somali Taliban, displaying no less ruthlessness and brutality.

Somalia has a demographics of 85% people of Somali origin. The country consists mostly of Sunni Muslims adhering to Shafi`i school of Islamic jurisprudence and Xeer, a traditional form of law system.

The most notable part of Somali Society is the the clan and subclan system.

If India wants to play in the playfield of Somalia, we have to always be cognizant of this clan and subclan system, and we need to gain sufficient intelligence about the various clan-subclan rivalries as well as personality rivalries. There would be various prisms through which we will have to look at but the clan structure would definitely be one of the most prominent ways.

Another is the financial angle. Somalia too bears promise of minerals below its sands and rocks. We have to see which clans and subclans claim the territories where mineral deposits are suspected. Despite the lack of a central government, the economy of Somalia is still trudging along.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Jun 2011 13:49

This is the important map we all need to digest.

Map of Ethnic Groups of Somalia (as of 2002)
---Sorry, for readability the map is somewhat large.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Jun 2011 15:11

In order to appreciate somewhat better how Somalia is a political fractured at the moment, here is another map

Regions of Somalia

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Jun 2011 16:45

Thinking in terms of an Indian Deployment in order to curb piracy or to fight Al Shabaab Jihadism, would be a completely wrong starting point. What we don't want is a repeat of a politically botched IPKF mission to Sri Lanka, or some political captivity like that of the Americans in Afghanistan now. What we don't want is simply to help other parties and getting nothing in return. Of course the Europeans, Saudis, Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, etc. all would want us to police the waters off Gulf of Aden. But sending our navy in harm's way just for a pat on the back wouldn't really cut it.

Before we even begin to deal with Somali Piracy or Somali terrorism, we should step back a little bit and think about our grand strategy for the Horn of Africa. Indian mission should be the long term integration of Somalia into Pax Indica built around the Indian Ocean Rim. India's superpower status depends on having the whole Indian Ocean Rim as our exclusive zone of influence and power. So integrating Somalia into that vision is simply the logical thing to do.

There have been numerous examples of successful "colonialism" - the Islamic colonialism of the Indian Subcontinent, the British colonialism of India, the European colonialism of the Americas and Oceania, Chinese occupation of Tibet, Colonization of Africa, etc. etc.; as such we have many models to choose from. But executing a successful colonization in the age of United Nations, 24/7 News channels, Internet, Globalization, is a very very difficult nut to crack. As such it needs to be handled with shrewdness, smoke and mirrors, dogs and ponies, and delicate touch.

Following factors make an Indian venture into Somalia possible:

Poverty - Even India's limited resources can do wonders in Somalia
Anarchy - The UN would be forced to act and look for contributions from other countries
Jihadism - Moral Support from the West and others for any involvement.
Piracy - Something that hurts other countries directly, would act as catalyst for Political and Financial support from the West, Gulf, and East Asia.
Fragmentation - We do not need to deal with Somalia as a whole, in which case we would have been called occupiers, but we can deal with any of the autonomous regions that suits us.
Just 10 million population - Makes the job doable.

So before we think about in terms of finishing off any of the underlying factors which could make India's entry into Somalia easier, we should give it due deliberation. We should perhaps start thinking of all of the above factors as positive, factors over which India should get some control, but not factors we need to eliminate, just because that is what nice countries do!

It is one thing to promise the world we will deal with piracy, it is another if we really want to do it. It is one thing to bring piracy levels under control, it is quite another to eliminate it completely.

It is a fundamental rule of any contract, don't let the problem for one's customer go away completely! This is true, be it for doctors, open source software distributors, Pakistanis (as in Af-Pak), etc. etc. So even if we do take up the task of controlling piracy for various countries, and they extend support to us, even then we need to keep piracy going on in some form or another, for otherwise the support we get from the West and Gulf would soon evaporate.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Jun 2011 17:34

Step 1: Get a UN Mandate

If India wants to devise a way to enter Somalia in a big way, it would have to be through the UN route. The UNSC would have to give a mandate for a Somalia Stabilization Force - most probably consisting of African Union troops, Ethopia, India and some token presence of Europeans.

Everybody would agree to it, even China, for they would see it as a way to make India bleed, in much the same way as America is doing in Afghanistan.

So we get a UNSC Resolution on this.

We should enter Somalia with an overwhelming presence of say at least 100,000 troops. And we should put up our tent somewhere in Somalia, possibly in the vicinity of Bosaso, where the Dubai Lootah Group (they don't even hide that they are thieves) is setting up an airport and shipping port.

Instead of going pirate hunting we should use the opportunity to expand our political, military and economic footprint in Puntland.

The UN Resolution should simply pave our entry into Somalia.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Jun 2011 18:13

So many regions, which to choose?

Two regions hold the most promise - Somaliland and Puntland. These two however do not have cordial relations.

Somaliland
Republic of Somaliland is a good beachhead as it is relatively peaceful. It is a region which strives for recognition by the international community, but has not received any as yet. It has its own government. It is populated by mainly one clain – the Isaaqs. As the Isaaqs are not spread out throughout Somalia, they also have no stake in keeping Somalia together. Somaliland has a population of around 3.5 million people and is relatively stable.

It is based on the region that once comprised the British Somaliland. Mainly British Somaliland was used to secure British shipping between British India and Britain, and it used to be governed from India between 1884 and 1898. The port of Berbera is Somaliland's main port.

Somaliland has an ongoing war with Puntland, or Puntland supported organizations like Northern Somali Unionist Movement which holds sway in Sanaag (Maakhir), Sool and Cayn districts lying between Somaliland and Puntland. Mostly these districts are inhabited by Warsangeli-Darod, as is the case in Puntland as well, but historically speaking they were part of British Somaliland, and as such Somaliland lays claims to these regions.

Puntland
Unlike Somaliland which wants to separate from Somalia, Puntland believes in a united Somalia and does not approve of Somaliland's dash to independence. This is the case also because the Darod tribe, which is the main tribe in Puntland, is spread around in Somalia, and even in Ethiopia and Kenya (the Ogadeni sub-tribe).

Puntland is rich in oil and mineral deposits but there hasn't yet been much production. Some outsiders are investing in Puntland like Dubai. It is not as stable as Somaliland, with political assassinations here and then.

But Puntland holds the biggest promise as a partner for India. This is mainly because Puntland forms the Horn of Africa, facing Gulf of Aden, as well offers prospects for mining.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 22 Jun 2011 18:27

Socotra island could be taken on a lease (say for 40 years) by Indian Navy, there is a lagoon system in the island which could be developed to house some significant maritime assets, with the passage of time, Socotra could even become India's Guam or atleast a DG.

Socotra is equi-distant from Oman and Somaliland. IIRC, there is also an Indian name for this island which was used during the time of Gupta Empire.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jun 2011 19:27

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socotra

brilliant idea to take it on a 50yr lease. the Yemeni state is anyways collapsing and has no vital interest in this desolate island. pop only 50k, no known jihadis, ancient semitic and baghdadi xtian roots, dates, sheep and fish are the main economic activity.

played properly, we could both help Yemen financially and make this our DG....a staging post for ships and aircraft right in the middle of all the action.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Jun 2011 19:46

Socotra would need to be the home base for a sqdn of MiG29K's at the very least, plus some P8-I's and regularly house a naval task force of 2-3 destroyers and 4-5 frigates

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 22 Jun 2011 20:11

^^^ Added to that, Socotra "looks" into the Red Sea, thereby acting as a passive sanitisation platform for SSN's, provided we install radar systems to carry out the same.

There are two west facing bay inlets on this map which can be used to install a C3I network, linking up with Karwar, Mumbai and other upcoming bases on west coast.

Above illustration also shows a waterway running parellel to the south coast of the island, probably having a cave network as well. If developed properly, this could well be our Saanya. Exploration on this front should start asap, IMO.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jun 2011 20:19

these waterways are likely dry wadis looking at google earth ... rushing with torrential water only in rainy season.

but anyways all one needs is develop one deep water anchorage and one airbase/ELINT post to be in business.

the islanders can be given major economic benefits like base employment, supply of food and resources to base, medical care, education, agriculture and animal husbandry aid, tax free fish exports to India

, decent roads, tourism from india, even the right to emigrate and work/study in india if they want. compared to the yemeni rule, we can easily make things better.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2011 20:25

Klaus, Socotra used to be R&R station of Indian seamen in the pre-Islamic days. Its a variant of Sukhtara. Read it in AL Basham's "Wonder that is India".

Meanwhile I think if PN ship is sunk by pirates aka sea borne non-state actors the piracy will get reduced.

Our chackojoseph writes about Paki connections to Somali piracy. And same time they go on anti-piracy patrols.

Wonder if that is to tip off the pirates?

Please tweet, blog what ever and spread the news:

Terror at the High Seas: Pakistan plugs into Piracy

Terror at the high seas : Pakistan plugs into piracy
By P. Chacko Joseph | June 19th, 2011 | Category: Opinions and Articles | 8 comments

In a worrying development, the Pakistani Captain of MV Suez (an Egyptian ship), a so called Pakistani charity organisation, sea pirates, the Pakistani Navy and the Pakistani government have been colluding to play a game of one-upmanship with India. This pattern coincides with the Pakistani terror game which once began to counter Indian Army and is now a global phenomenon. This time, Pakistan’s irregular army/navy are the pirates.

Pakistani pirates are not a new phenomenon. In February 2008, there were news reports of Pakistani pirates attacking Indian fishermen near Porbandar. In September 2009, the Indian Navy said that Somali Pirates were using weapons that had been manufactured in Pakistan. INS Mysore had reported the Pakistani link to Somali pirates. The evidence was found during an action against pirate ship Salahuddin. The rocket-propelled grenade launcher, the rifles and the ammunition seized aboard the vessel bore the markings of Pakistan’s Ordinance Factory. In addition some Pakistani nationals were caught with Somali pirates, indicating that Pakistanis have begun penetrating the Somali Piracy domain.

(Image: Pakistani navy)
PNS Babur or Pakistani Pirate Ship Babur? Begining of a state sponsered Piracy era?

There is increased attack on ships which have Indian seamen abroad and the Somali Pirates allegedly withheld the Indian seamen as hostage, even after the ransom had been paid. However, the Indians were not held back in the MV Suez case. This clearly shows the Pakistani involvement via its infamous external intelligence agency, the ISI and the terror outfits it controls. If one remembers, Muhammad Ajmal Amir Kasab – the lone captured terrorist of the Mumbai terror attack (November 26, 2008, also known as 26/11) – had told investigators that he was trained by Pakistan Marines, an elite unit of the Pakistan Navy. US agencies investigating David Coleman Headley (who surveyed Indian targets for the Mumbai attacks), had put it on record that Pakistani Navy, at the behest of the Pakistan intelligence agency Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) had trained the Mumbai attackers. Similarly, Indian intelligence reports in September 2006 mention that the ISI was facilitating training of close to 150 LeT operatives in sea guerrilla warfare.

In the MV Suez case, the Pakistani establishment and its collusion with the Pakistani non-state actors is evidently visible. As per the plot, an MV Suez with the Captain being a Pakistani national and Indians as crew was hijacked by pirates. A Pakistani charity, usually used as legal fronts by Pakistani terror organisations, paid the ransom. It was again attacked and a Pakistani Naval Ship – PNS Babur – was conveniently available close to the hijacked ship. The press- release by the Indian Navy accuses PNS Babur of performing dangerous manoeuvres and putting in danger the Indian Naval Ship – INS Godavari and its crew, when it arrived to take over the escorting on MV Suez. Strangely, the Egyptian vessel which was under the command of the Pakistani captain did not respond to INS Godavari’s calls, as it sought to establish contact with MV Suez.

The involvement of Pakistan, via its non-state terror machinery is an indicator to the future of piracy on high seas. It is time, the world stands up and takes note.

Next sink the Babur or its siblings and say pirate sank the mother ship. Let the US sort the matter as they did with the onions.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 22 Jun 2011 20:56

Tactical initiatives.
1. Arm the sailors on ship with small firearms.
2. Prosecute and sentence the captured pirates in International court as well as Indian courts.
3. Identify Pick and support the good "Somali" lords who are not supporting the pirates.
4. Establish permanent patrol lanes (along with other navies but terroristan) and watch the pirates.

Strategic initiatives.
1. Develop Ethiopia economically as well as socially (education).
2. Get a Navy base closer to Somalia.
3. Help Somalian good lords to take over the country.
4. Help Somalian good lords to punish the pirates.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2011 20:58

After Aidid was killed by some faction, there are no good lords in Somalia.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 22 Jun 2011 21:10

Thanks Ramana ji. I remember reading the review of the book, however I forgot the Indic name. There is discussion about Sukhtara in GDF relating to Buddhist mercantile networks.

Your map of pirate attacks also points to a 3 way TSPN-Pirates-Maldives Islamists links, possibly fueled by hawala money and acting as a physical conduit between AQ (Af-Pak) and AQAM-AQAP.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 22 Jun 2011 21:11

Well then

Well here are few more for 5-10 years goals.

1. Find out few good educated people in Somalia (preferably who studied in India)., if none then pick few people and give them grants to study in India (provided they go back and help their country).

2. Get few of our Maulanas to travel to Somalia and convert them to our cause.

3. Establish Radio station/satellite news program and distribute free radios/televisions inside Somalia for people and regularly broadcast the news., create multi lingual movies about bad Somalian pirates.

4. Make heroes of good Somalian people (sportsmen/women, actors, writers, painters, etc)., support them for any future political work.